New England Patriots
14-2 Regular Season
Most likely team to win the Super Bowl
Undefeated 8-0 at home
Patriots are even better at home 34 PF, 19 PA
Patriots have scored 30+ points 8 games in a row - best offense in the NFL
10-5-1 ATS ( perform better than expectations)
Young defense has gelled, giving up 7, 3, 27, 7, 3, 24, 28, 26 in their last 8 games
Their only true close game in the 2nd half of the season was vs Green Bay
Win Margins, 31, 31, 4, 29, 42, 21, 3, 13
Patriots won 9 games by 9 or more points
Tom Brady is also maybe the best cold weather QB of All-Time
Bye week
Arguments against Patriots:
Patriots are 1-1 vs Jets already
Patriots lost to Mark Sanchez, Colt Mccoy, and nearly Matt Flynn ( weak QB's)
Jets have less injuiries
Jets only average 24 PF on the road, 23 PA ( largely skewed to Patriots blowout loss)
Jets 7-2 on the road ( I can't complain about that)
Jets will be playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks - that's tough
The Jets have a lot of talent on their roster and they have a good coach but the weakness is a big one... quarterback. Sanchez is good for his age - he came out as a true junior but he's still not a very good QB yet.
The best game plan for the Patriots is to get ahead and take away the Jets run game, and try and have Mark Sanchez pass the ball. The Patriots have the best offense in the league and should be able to score, I can't say the Jets will score with the same confidence. The Jets best shot to win the game is keep it close, reduce the number of possessions, run the ball and make Sanchez a game manager who sprinkles in a few passes. If the Jets are down by double digits and Sanchez has to keep passing the Jets have little to no shot IMO.
I think the Patriots win and cover. I will be on the Patriots ML big, I have them -2 in a teaser ( I love getting them under 3) and I will probably put some cheese on the spread too. Rex Ryan upped the stakes and is begging the Pats to run up the score if they get the chance to, and I believe they will have a chance to.