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Bottom line is you win with 3 and 7 with Packers, and only win with 7 with Ravens. Those two key numbers dwarf all others. Both plays get the 4 and 6, and it is more important to win with 3 than push with 10, No matter how you look at it, Packers have more value.
Packers: 3, 7, 4, 6Originally Posted by LT Profits
2, 5, & 9 don't matter as much
Ravens: 3, 7, 4, 6, 10
5 & 9 don't matter as much
You get an extra important number with Baltimore, although you get a reduced payout on 10
But with the 3, you are turning a LOSS into a Win with the Packers. You are turning a PUSH into a Win with the Ravens. That adds to the Packers teaser value more than gaining a push on 10.
If the Packers lose by 10 it's a loss
The Ravens are turning a potential loss at 10 into a push & a potential push at 3 into a win
Right, and the fact that the Packers are turning a LOSS into a win at 3 trumps everything you said.
Just remember, this is the NFL. Anything can happen.
We are talking strictly math hare. Turning a loss into a win at 3 is about 6 times more important then turning a loss into a push at 10.
Can't wait to load up on the Jets on the money line. To the casual observer, 45-3 is the only story.
Let's discuss what we're getting with the obscenely generous Jets ML odds:
• The freak injury to Jim Leonhard did the Jets in on the Friday before the last game - the Jets lost their defensive signal caller and had to rework their defensive scheme. Safeties Pool and Smith were not ready to play and were awful, burnt early and often by Brady - combined with some bad coaching decisions, the Jets were behind 17-0 in the first 6 minutes and tried to play catch up passing into a cover 2 defense with a limited number of plays designed to attack it.
• Those safeties have since tightened up their play, besides Revis (who is at peak form) they were the best players on the Jets D having the best games of their young careers AT INDY AGAINST PEYTON MANNING IN THE PLAYOFFS; they shut down the Colts TE (who was the most productive receiver in the NFL since week 8) ... assume they will fare far better this time around against Gronkowski and the Pats.
• Jets have better players all around. If this game gets to the middle of the 3rd quarter and it seems like anybody's ballgame - then it's probably the Jets ball game. Their style is to hang around and wear opponents out.
• Sanchez looked, at times, awful against the Colts. He was trying to overcompensate for a bad throwing shoulder and had no touch. As of today, Wed, his shoulder is about 100% better - observers say he's throwing the ball well and so does Sanchez - this was a topic to be avoided the days before the Colts game.
• The Jets players, as a team, began raising their play in the weeks after the crushing at Gillette. Right now Sanchez seems like a week spot, but the fact is he's competitive as hell, owns a 3-1 play off record (in 2 seasons of NFL), and when the whole world was doubting him last year, even against the Colts, he delivered. He has balls.
• Brady is the best QB in the league, no doubt; but take him away and the Jets have a much better team. This game is a 50/50 prospect on the winner. There is huge free odds with the Jets. That 45-3 is a mirage.
And only a fool bets a heavy favorite ML. Even if it wins...it wasn't worth it because it will only encourage you to make another bet like that; sooner or later (usually sooner) you get burnt.
I'm taking "fly like a Jet"
taking the ml isn't good from a risk/reward standpoint
Jets ML is like burning money, they have 10% chance of winning outright. There is not a defense in the AFC that can slow down Pats offense right now, they simply have too many weapons for the Jets t key on just one guy to take out of the game like they did to Wayne of the depleted Colts.
Pats will cover the spread
Nothing wrong with laying -400 when line should be closer to -900, and I think its very realistic that the Pats win this game 9 out of 10 times.
That said, as mentioned, the best value is teasing Pats-2.5/Packers +8.5.
damn, lotta coin, hope you hit that buddy, i'll be pulling for you.......GL
Good bet , no way the jets win this
should be a good play...
dont see why not .. but a lot of juice
Patriots should win but it wouldn't surprise me one bit if the Jets win this game. They are well over due for a game where they are really clicking.
I wonder where this line will close.
laying big juice isn't smart. just look at duke and k-state last night.
With the Eagles loss, C-Gold blamed the wrong person Michael Vick for the loss. It was actually David Akers who should be blamed for the loss.
I don't trust your plays at the moment. But if you are correct here, then I will start following your plays again.
I think most of you guys said Seattle has 0% chance to win and Saints win 10 out of 10 times they play.
Jets have like a ~23% to win, ml was down to -380 yesterday.
If someone plays 38k to win 10k on this game, its not that bad. If it was on the road, never lay that juice.
lock of the century
j-e-t-s jets jets jets!
+340
Sorry, what are the ML odds for New England? Its hardly going to pay for my tip to Las Vegas
You keep your silver dollar, I'll take the mega bundle we will win on the Pats.
Not me. Not that I bet Seattle ML or anything (I wish!), but no way I was betting Saints ML on the road after the Seahawks actually played Saints tough in New Orleans during regular season. I even think Seattle ML is not a disgusting play this week either, although I am passing.
This is a different situation here though because we are talking about the best team in football playing at home vs. a team they already destroyed in this stadium.
i am going to bankrupt SBR
Ticket#:555908
Jan 16 04:30 PM
Internet / -1 Jan 11 07:32 PM
NFL
STRAIGHT BET
[115] NY JETS +330
1150.32 / 3796.06
Ticket#:556240
Jan 16 04:30 PM
Internet / -1 Jan 12 01:43 AM
NFL
STRAIGHT BET
[115] NY JETS +330
419.00 / 1382.70
Ticket#:558483
Jan 16 04:30 PM
Internet / -1 Jan 13 03:10 AM
NFL
STRAIGHT BET
[115] NY JETS +330
1300.00 / 4290.00
I do not see the Jets winning this game. Brady wants to shut the Jets up and I think he will.
Either you don't care about point much or you are taking a shot to buy a big ticket item from the store. If it's the latter, Seattle ML would have been better choice.
Ha ha!
STRAIGHT BET Jan 16 NFL [115] NY JETS +330 500.00 SBR / 1650.00 SBR 558606
Worst idea ever. What if Brady gets hurt really early in the game? Too many variables. Don't risk it bud.
I like the Jets to Win SU or lose by one, it will kill all these Unbeatable teasers everyone is throwing the Pats into.
Wow I can't believe how many of you guys are so wrong or uninformed about how moneylines and spreads work.
byeshea, you're an idiot for so many reasons...
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