[firedawg]

Michigan a decent team????

I don’t know if I would give them that much credit

they did almost lose to Army at home right?

Will they be decent after they beat the Irish ?

[homie1975]

Michigan a decent team????

I don’t know if I would give them that much credit

they did almost lose to Army at home right?

Did you know that army was 12-3 in their last 15 games leading up to that Michigan game and that they run a tremendous triple option under jeff monken (a very respected coach) that Michigan never sees?

Michigan is favored over Notre dame. Why? Because they're good.

[milwaukee mike]

Mich v wisky last year vs this year is simple. Revenge factor this year as wisky remembered last year's score.

Mike if you can't see that mich is way down this year compared to last year and wisky fielding a much better team this year than they did last year, then you're either very green or you are not paying attention.

oh the revenge factor!

i love that one even though 1/3rd of the team is different players

i'm gonna try harder because they beat me last time! i don't really care about looking good for the nfl, i just care about playing well in certain games, and poorly in others (like let downs and look aheads)

[homie1975]

oh the revenge factor!

i love that one even though 1/3rd of the team is different players

i'm gonna try harder because they beat me last time! i don't really care about looking good for the nfl, i just care about playing well in certain games, and poorly in others (like let downs and look aheads)

these are 19-23 year olds with major emotional swings to the high side and the low side. less than 1% of them will ever play in the pros and they know that. why do you think it's so important to hire a coach who not only knows X's and O's but who can also fire his team up with great pregame and halftime speeches. it's because most players need inspiring.

if emotions and the ups and downs and let down spots etc were not part of the game, then i would probably win 80% of my bets on college football. the fundamental capping is the easiest. it's all the rest of it (the emotional aspect) which is the toughest.

31 pt faves don't just lose straight up. there was so much more to that game than just the X's and O's on the field. the look ahead was without question the BIGGEST factor in that game. wisky thought their shittt did not stink and they read their headlines and got caught looking ahead. period.

and BTW if you don't think the players know the spreads then that is another thing you are wrong about.

you have so much to learn bro.

[milwaukee mike]

these are 19-23 year olds with major emotional swings to the high side and the low side. less than 1% of them will ever play in the pros and they know that. why do you think it's so important to hire a coach who not only knows X's and O's but who can also fire his team up with great pregame and halftime speeches. it's because most players need inspiring.

if emotions and the ups and downs and let down spots etc were not part of the game, then i would probably win 80% of my bets on college football. the fundamental capping is the easiest. it's all the rest of it (the emotional aspect) which is the toughest.

31 pt faves don't just lose straight up. there was so much more to that game than just the X's and O's on the field. the look ahead was without question the BIGGEST factor in that game. wisky thought their shittt did not stink and they read their headlines and got caught looking ahead. period.

and BTW if you don't think the players know the spreads then that is another thing you are wrong about.

you have so much to learn bro.

ok then teach me, by the way i've only been gambling every day for 30 years and a college athletics booster for almost 20

how many current or former badgers football players have you met?

[homie1975]

ok then teach me, by the way i've only been gambling every day for 30 years and a college athletics booster for almost 20

how many current or former badgers football players have you met?

well if you don't understand the ebbs and flows of a college football season for a team and how they get up for some games and are not quite as interested or let's say as focused as other games, then you have been missing a very key part of college football and handicapping angles that are extremely key when analyzing a game.

perhaps because you are a Wisconsin University booster you do not want to believe deep down inside that football players for your school are 19-23 year old human beings and they have the same emotions as the common, every day person. some days at work you just don't have the same drive and motivation, because you are having a bad day or the work is not interesting.

the visit to champaign last sat did not look as interesting or appealing as the one to columbus does next sat, and since the two games were so close, the badger players minds' were not completely focused or engaged in the game vs Illinois. there is no other way to explain it. they are HEADS and SHOULDERS better than the fighting Illini on any field in the world, let alone Champaign.

had the Ohio State game not been next sat, they would have been more focused this past Sat and would have found a way to win that game even if just by 1 point.

they got caught. i know what i know and no one can convince me otherwise. 33+ years of capping every week in CFB has taught me too much. i've learned these lessons the hard way.

GL to you, Sir. we agree to disagree.

[milwaukee mike]

well if you don't understand the ebbs and flows of a college football season for a team and how they get up for some games and are not quite as interested or let's say as focused as other games, then you have been missing a very key part of college football and handicapping angles that are extremely key when analyzing a game.

perhaps because you are a Wisconsin University booster you do not want to believe deep down inside that football players for your school are 19-23 year old human beings and they have the same emotions as the common, every day person. some days at work you just don't have the same drive and motivation, because you are having a bad day or the work is not interesting.

the visit to champaign last sat did not look as interesting or appealing as the one to columbus does next sat, and since the two games were so close, the badger players minds' were not completely focused or engaged in the game vs Illinois. there is no other way to explain it. they are HEADS and SHOULDERS better than the fighting Illini on any field in the world, let alone Champaign.

had the Ohio State game not been next sat, they would have been more focused this past Sat and would have found a way to win that game even if just by 1 point.

they got caught. i know what i know and no one can convince me otherwise. 33+ years of capping every week in CFB has taught me too much. i've learned these lessons the hard way.

GL to you, Sir. we agree to disagree.

yeah i hear you and you make some good points... handicapping for too long teaches you everything, you're right there, the thing it teaches me most is that nobody knows anything

i would like to give some credit to the illini though, they battled and pulled off the upset... yes some players lack drive and motivation, others realize that there are only a handful of games in their career so they bust their ass on every play... like any job it's a mix of eagles, turkeys, and everything in between!

[homie1975]

Football is such a team game that if just 1 or 2 key players in any phase (O, D, and ST) are disengaged or lacking focus for any reason, it is enough to cost their team dearly in any of those phases. I'm sure the majority of Wisconsin players were focused on the task at hand, but some were not.

Illinois? They were all focused and had a singular goal because they had a top 10 team on their field. They lose at home to eastern mich a month ago but beat wisky? It was their super bowl last sat.

Now watch then go shitt the bed at Purdue's this sat bevause they're still riding high thinking about last week's huge upset.

19 to 23 yr old kids. Never forget that.

[swordsandtequila]

Will all be moot after this weekend. Love watching Taylor run and would like nothing better than seeing Ohio State take a beating but my money says they steamroll the Badgers.

[homie1975]

Will all be moot after this weekend. Love watching Taylor run and would like nothing better than seeing Ohio State take a beating but my money says they steamroll the Badgers.

had wisky won the illinois game as 30 pt faves, even by 1 pt, then went into ohio state and either won or say lost a very close game, they would still be in the hunt for the CFP.

last saturday's result crushed their CFP hopes unless they run the table and then hope that any other 1 loss teams have a "worse loss than they do".

last sat is something the Wisconsin (and Illinois) players will never forget. for two very different reasons LOL

[swordsandtequila]

I like Wisconsin, but Ohio State has more athletes, more speed, and a massive advantage at quarterback. Imo last week only affected the line for this week, result will be the same. Imo.

[homie1975]

I like Wisconsin, but Ohio State has more athletes, more speed, and a massive advantage at quarterback. Imo last week only affected the line for this week, result will be the same. Imo.

I agree with you. as long as Justin Fields is at least 80% healthy (he is not injured, i am just saying that as long he is health) then i cannot envision Wisky winning on that buckeye home field without some serious help from the buckeyes.

tOSU really is the class of the B1G and has been for many years. they have size and speed to kill at every position on the field.

and Ryan Day? that dude is a witch of an offensive coach. he is a rising star in the college coaching profession.

[jtoler]

mean to tell me wisky isnt motivated at the start of 4th qtr and the score is 20-14 that they are still just going through the motions? not being AS motivated to play illini as they would say a michigan or ohio state is about the only kind of logic that makes sense and thats all pregame it'd be one thing if illini jumped on them off the bat or was even winning at any point in the game perhaps that logic makes but that just wasnt so wisky was never losing in the game and had their same average offensive production numbers. if they are so good then they will give ohio state a game but lets say they do then why cant we say ohio state was looking past a team theyve beaten 9 out of the last 10 times, a team that just got beaten by illinois

[homie1975]

Ohio state wont look past wisky bevause wisky is 6-1 and us ranked. They're favored by 14.

Wisky was favored by 31 over illinois. They thought they could win just by showing up. They got caught by a flurry of punches and thr big underdog caught them. Buster Douglas over. Iron mike Tyson.

[homie1975]

Colin cowherd just picked wisky + the points because he says they're much better than last weeks result where they were caught looking ahead.

He's not a great college capper but even he knows this angle is legit lol

[Mac4Lyfe]

Never, ever discount that athletes are emotional beings that can get motivated or demotivated by the simplest things. I’ve played on teams that looked ahead, believed our press and got our hats handed to teams not nearly as talented. We also played with a chip as we were disrespected and we beat the shit out of some teams. Why do you think we say, “on any given Sunday”? Or why are there upsets in the first place? Because we’re human.

[Ph q all]

When you get beat as soundly as the cheeseheads did by a nobody....you aren't looking ahead...you SUCK! OHIO STATE BY 14+

[homie1975]

Never, ever discount that athletes are emotional beings that can get motivated or demotivated by the simplest things. I’ve played on teams that looked ahead, believed our press and got our hats handed to teams not nearly as talented. We also played with a chip as we were disrespected and we beat the shit out of some teams. Why do you think we say, “on any given Sunday”? Or why are there upsets in the first place? Because we’re human.

Exactly. I played two varsity sports in HS and we absolutely looked ahead to the biggest matchups.

[homie1975]

When you get beat as soundly as the cheeseheads did by a nobody....you aren't looking ahead...you SUCK! OHIO STATE BY 14+

They lost by 1 pt. They had the less most of the game. Then they lost focus and took their foot off the gas. Got caught.

[jjgold]

45-20 osu

[Big Bear]

45-20 osu

the Buckeyes ain’t giving up 20 points pal

this D is one of the best they have had in 2 decades

[Big Bear]

the Ohio State cornerback I can’t spell his name is pretty special, his coverage skills are the best I’ve seen

[PAULYPOKER]

OSU will lay them to rest on Saturday..............

[homie1975]

the Buckeyes ain’t giving up 20 points pal

this D is one of the best they have had in 2 decades

I don't know quite how good they are until they play a team like bana, Clemson, lsu, oklahoma etc.

They host pedestrian penn state this year. The game in ann arbor might tell.us what we need to know.

BTW the 2002 D was very stingy in terms of allowing points.

But I get it. We only remember what we see right in front of us today.

[homie1975]

OSU will lay them to rest on Saturday..............

Yup

And I'm glad purdue laid ohio st to rest last year in a 29 pt blowout. It cost osu the CFP berth over oklahoma

[jjgold]

Wisconsin has never been mentally tough enough to win many big games

[gojetsgomoxies]

if "look ahead", "sandwich", "letdown" games are real phenomenon, they should be provable as they are easily quantifiable. to me they just are easy explanations for volatiltiy. no one ever comments on all the teams that don't "letdown" after big win.

i'll have to recheck but was illinois win over wisconsin basically turnovers? i don't see that as "look ahead" behaviour......... let's illinois make big plays is much more "look ahead" i'd say. although i personally don't believe in it, so no need to justify it.

[gojetsgomoxies]

wisconsin was 3-1 ATS week before ohio state game in the 7 or 8 years previously.

you could say they weren't undefeated some of those times (no idea if they were or not) but to me that just becomes a data-mining (make the data fit the narrative explanation)

[gojetsgomoxies]

next opponent number 1 ranked

https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

21-14 60% ATS.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Ask anyone that has played football enough and they will all tell you about getting caught looking ahead. Because we're human, there will be game weeks when players just aren't as focused and prepared for what they see in the game. I remember a week where we were emotionally drained from a teammates death. You would think we would be inspired but we didn't have a lot left in the tank. It took a few weeks for us to get back on track. A good coach understands this and knows how to keep his players focused.

[gojetsgomoxies]

almost all look-aheads are winners ATS, independent of next opponent.......... only big exception is P12 (oregon)

[gojetsgomoxies]

previous opponent = rank #1........... 56% ATS on 50 games.

[homie1975]

next opponent number 1 ranked

https://killersports.com/ncaafb/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

21-14 60% ATS.

raise the parameters to next opponent top 10 or even just top 5, and see what happens.

[homie1975]

Ask anyone that has played football enough and they will all tell you about getting caught looking ahead. Because we're human, there will be game weeks when players just aren't as focused and prepared for what they see in the game. I remember a week where we were emotionally drained from a teammates death. You would think we would be inspired but we didn't have a lot left in the tank. It took a few weeks for us to get back on track. A good coach understands this and knows how to keep his players focused.

not just football, MAC'er. i played basketball and soccer (team sports) and tennis (solo sport) in HS. in hoops we were a very strong team and we got caught looking past a weak opponent multiple times a few of those we lost to teams that later in the season we blew out by 20+ pts. 20 pt blowouts in HS hoops were not easy back then as we had no shot clock and the quarters were only 8 mins long.

[gojetsgomoxies]

raise the parameters to next opponent top 10 or even just top 5, and see what happens.

top 10 isn't look-ahead. teams change too much............ look ahead is playing a dominant opponent, who is perpetually dominant. in my mind, at least.

i agree it makes some sense psychologically.......... but it's either "in the line" or it's money making opportunity. especially moneyline.

my problem is people just throw around the term 1) indiscriminantly and 2) almost always "after the fact"..............

Mac's comment about coaches understanding this and motivating his players is key