1. #12426
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    it's a weird type of cycle, ends somewhere around the middle of september every 7th year... so yes september 2029 would be the problem area

    i know you're being sarcastic but it can't just be a random coincidence that markets crash that often every 7th year in september/october
    I'm actually not being sarcastic. The relationship probably not quite as strong as you paint, but it seems like there's something there.

    I also see how the 6th year is supposed to be the harvest. And I think maybe we do see outsized gains those years. 2021, 2007, 99-00, etc. Boom-bust cycle.

  2. #12427
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    I'm actually not being sarcastic. The relationship probably not quite as strong as you paint, but it seems like there's something there.

    I also see how the 6th year is supposed to be the harvest. And I think maybe we do see outsized gains those years. 2021, 2007, 99-00, etc. Boom-bust cycle.
    absolutely, and i totally agree with that

    booms in stocks create crashes, because johnny-come-latelys throw in the towel, get margin calls, etc

    booms in real estate create crashes, because borderline developments get done, things get overbuilt, etc... like 2008 in vegas, some of those things like fontaineblue are just NOW getting finished lol

    we had an everything bubble (stocks/real estate/bonds/gold/crypto) so it's sad to see but having an everything crash isn't really unprecedented... the thing i've been most wrong about, that has cost me the most money, is i thought with the huge debt load that the us (and other countries) are carrying, that interest rates almost had to stay super low

    if you add unfunded ss/medicare, the us deficit is somewhere around 100 trillion! at 4% that's 4 trillion/year just in interest, and even in good times the irs only collects about 3.5 trillion... so we're not even funding the interest at some point, let alone all the rest of the federal govt spending

  3. #12428
    milwaukee mike
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    just brutal price action today, nasdaq down almost 4% in a drip drip drip

    2 great days to start the week, and then give it all up... monday could be another black monday? some sick demented part of me would like to see a 25% down day for stocks just to laugh at all the people that care too much about money

  4. #12429
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    just brutal price action today, nasdaq down almost 4% in a drip drip drip

    2 great days to start the week, and then give it all up... monday could be another black monday? some sick demented part of me would like to see a 25% down day for stocks just to laugh at all the people that care too much about money
    Not quite all, but still 20 minutes to get there. Friday closed 3,585 and now 3,632...

  5. #12430
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Not quite all, but still 20 minutes to get there. Friday closed 3,585 and now 3,632...
    most people in this thread are pretty darn smart... i think the consensus was that was a fool's rally, yet the only thing i even played around with was nflx, sold at 239.99 rebought at 230.01 then resold at 239.99 and rebought at 230.01 lolol

    make 9k a couple times while losing 200k on the other stuff

  6. #12431
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    most people in this thread are pretty darn smart... i think the consensus was that was a fool's rally, yet the only thing i even played around with was nflx, sold at 239.99 rebought at 230.01 then resold at 239.99 and rebought at 230.01 lolol

    make 9k a couple times while losing 200k on the other stuff
    And now you gotta pay ordinary income tax on the 9k. Well, not really, I assume you'll harvest some losses before year-end.

    I don't have the time, knowledge, or patience to trade in and out of stocks. Rather trade a 3 hour sports event.

  7. #12432
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    And now you gotta pay ordinary income tax on the 9k. Well, not really, I assume you'll harvest some losses before year-end.

    I don't have the time, knowledge, or patience to trade in and out of stocks. Rather trade a 3 hour sports event.
    i just had those in as limit orders, and then when it sold at 239.99 i put in a buy at 230.01, etc

    so it didn't really require watching anything, just automatic buying when it gets from 230 to 240 (way back in the past i had some bad luck on stuff hitting exact numbers but not executing, so i go a penny under/over)

    doing the technical stuff like slurry, or trying to day trade has never been in my wheelhouse... but i have had OK luck swing trading around positions... if i sold at 240 and it went to 300 ok i still have some... if it goes back to 230 i rebuy, if it goes back to 160 i'm screwed anyway but at least i made 10k

  8. #12433
    alling
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    Congrats to anyone who sold rip early in the week. Going long of late is the definition of insanity

  9. #12434
    alling
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    For those of you who think it can rally into elections see 2008 especially October. Perhaps thats why it rallied earlier in the week. But if I'm wrong i will sell any election rally. Cause that's the winning trade/investment in 2022.

  10. #12435
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by alling View Post
    Congrats to anyone who sold rip early in the week. Going long of late is the definition of insanity
    and early congrats to those who have been buying incrementally on huge dips YTD and are holding long ??

    time will tell if this strategy will work.

    for LT holders of at least 5 years-plus, I like our chances!

    extend that to 7 or 10 years and i like the chances even more !

  11. #12436
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by homie1975 View Post
    and early congrats to those who have been buying incrementally on huge dips YTD and are holding long ??

    time will tell if this strategy will work.

    for LT holders of at least 5 years-plus, I like our chances!

    extend that to 7 or 10 years and i like the chances even more !
    unfortunately on most nasdaq stuff unless you've sold on rallies, it hasn't done any good

  12. #12437
    Slurry Pumper
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    In this inflationary environment with high interest rates for the foreseeable future, I'm staying away from anything Tech related. For my long term plays I'm sticking with the Lithium miners that I have been in for the last 18 months, and maybe looking to get a good boring dividend stock in either cigarettes' or booze. During the downturn there always a nice vice stock. I may even toss in a weed stock even though I need to do some massive homework on them to see who is growing top quality growth and who is blowing smoke up their investors arses.
    I see the market tanked today in a systematic way with a little rise into the close. Can't help but think about this large trading range I've been touting for the month of October.

  13. #12438
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    unfortunately on most nasdaq stuff unless you've sold on rallies, it hasn't done any good
    if Nov 15 2021 through Oct 7 2022 is the measure, then Yes

    if Nov 15 2021 through Oct 7 2025 is the measure, it likely looks much much much better.

    again, it all depends on one's goals.

    i am BULLISH long term on the market, always.

  14. #12439
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by homie1975 View Post
    if Nov 15 2021 through Oct 7 2022 is the measure, then Yes

    if Nov 15 2021 through Oct 7 2025 is the measure, it likely looks much much much better.

    again, it all depends on one's goals.

    i am BULLISH long term on the market, always.
    How long is long? 5 years? 10? 20? 50? 100?
    And what is the start and end measure?

    If you're always long-term bullish, then you were bullish 4800 in January. Might be a long time until that long-term return is decent.

    The run over the past 30+ years has been so insanely good that it's not impossible that the next 20-30 will be decidedly not so good. I'd be quite surprised if it was nearly as good.

  15. #12440
    guitarjosh
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    How long is long? 5 years? 10? 20? 50? 100?
    And what is the start and end measure?

    If you're always long-term bullish, then you were bullish 4800 in January. Might be a long time until that long-term return is decent.

    The run over the past 30+ years has been so insanely good that it's not impossible that the next 20-30 will be decidedly not so good. I'd be quite surprised if it was nearly as good.
    Yeah, if you invested in a Nasdaq index fund in March of 2000, it took you over a decade to get back to even.

  16. #12441
    d2bets
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    Measured from 1/1/22, I'd guess that the 10 years through 2031 annual return will be less than 5%.

  17. #12442
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Measured from 1/1/22, I'd guess that the 10 years through 2031 annual return will be less than 5%.
    i would agree with that... global economic growth is negative (in real terms, counting inflation)

    what is possibly just as important in terms of keeping wealth, is inflation... could easily see a hyperinflation scenario playing out... there's no guarantee that a loaf of bread won't be $500 a few years from now

  18. #12443
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    i would agree with that... global economic growth is negative (in real terms, counting inflation)

    what is possibly just as important in terms of keeping wealth, is inflation... could easily see a hyperinflation scenario playing out... there's no guarantee that a loaf of bread won't be $500 a few years from now
    Come on man. I'd bet major chalk that ain't the case. If a loaf of bread costs $500, this whole experiment is done.

  19. #12444
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by guitarjosh View Post
    Yeah, if you invested in a Nasdaq index fund in March of 2000, it took you over a decade to get back to even.
    not if that investor dollar cost averaged during that decade.

    and it actually took more like 15 years.

    QQQ was $110 in mid March 2000

    after the dot.com burst, it did not come back to $110 until May 2015

    however, you are making two BIG assumptions.

    1) the investor did NOT buy QQQ prior to the high point of March 2000 (height of dot.com era)

    2) the investor did NOT buy QQQ After the high point of March 2000

    you are assuming a buy right at the high point.

    I bought BTC for my first buy ever this past Jan at $42K

    I have been buying ever since, and increasing the dollar amounts as it has gotten lower.

    my cost today is $22K

    DOLLAR COST AVERAGING. not buy and hold. DCA

    it takes a lot of discipline and a lot of cash. i am fortunate on both fronts but i have saving for these moments for years, driving two reliable japanese cars while a bunch of show-offs around me are driving Teslas.

    guess which one has the money as we speak, to Dollar Cost Average ?

  20. #12445
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by homie1975 View Post
    not if that investor dollar cost averaged during that decade.

    and it actually took more like 15 years.

    QQQ was $110 in mid March 2000

    after the dot.com burst, it did not come back to $110 until May 2015

    however, you are making two BIG assumptions.

    1) the investor did NOT buy QQQ prior to the high point of March 2000 (height of dot.com era)

    2) the investor did NOT buy QQQ After the high point of March 2000

    you are assuming a buy right at the high point.

    I bought BTC for my first buy ever this past Jan at $42K

    I have been buying ever since, and increasing the dollar amounts as it has gotten lower.

    my cost today is $22K

    DOLLAR COST AVERAGING. not buy and hold. DCA

    it takes a lot of discipline and a lot of cash. i am fortunate on both fronts but i have saving for these moments for years, driving two reliable japanese cars while a bunch of show-offs around me are driving Teslas.

    guess which one has the money as we speak, to Dollar Cost Average ?
    You are a man with a plan. Much respect.

  21. #12446
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    How long is long? 5 years? 10? 20? 50? 100?
    And what is the start and end measure?

    If you're always long-term bullish, then you were bullish 4800 in January. Might be a long time until that long-term return is decent.

    The run over the past 30+ years has been so insanely good that it's not impossible that the next 20-30 will be decidedly not so good. I'd be quite surprised if it was nearly as good.

    that is probably what people said 30 years ago.

    there is no reason the next 10 or 20 or 30 years cannot be as good as the last 10 or 20 or 30.

  22. #12447
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    You are a man with a plan. Much respect.
    thanks 2er

    in 10y i will either look like a genius or a dope, but i like my chances to look pretty decent.

  23. #12448
    homie1975
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    "time in the market" beats trying to "time the market".

  24. #12449
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by homie1975 View Post
    thanks 2er

    in 10y i will either look like a genius or a dope, but i like my chances to look pretty decent.
    I want to double my net worth in the next 7 years. Market is part of it, but also would like to replicate my sports returns over the last 2 years. Unfortunately, likely not possible.

  25. #12450
    Slurry Pumper
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    I don't know about the time in market as opposed to timing the markets. I think you can time the markets pretty well.
    I'm not opposed to dollar cost averaging in fact that is what I do with gold and gold miners every month for about 7 years now.

  26. #12451
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slurry Pumper View Post
    I don't know about the time in market as opposed to timing the markets. I think you can time the markets pretty well.
    I'm not opposed to dollar cost averaging in fact that is what I do with gold and gold miners every month for about 7 years now.
    yeah homie himself seems to have timed it quite well

    stocks are no different than real estate, gold, clothing, etc... buying stuff on sale is better than full price

    i hope the market opens up tomorrow so i can sell some covered calls (dkng/mara/gps/crox), then it can crash

  27. #12452
    homie1975
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    feeling another red week after the friday numbers and all of us fighting the Fed (never fight the Fed).

    russia issues after the bridge into crimea had 3 of 4 lanes blown up.

    temperatures escalating between 'Jina and US (as in "us) over Taiwan.

    60 mins piece tonight on Taiwan tensions, won't help.

    re-fasten seat belts Gents.

  28. #12453
    guitarjosh
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    Quote Originally Posted by homie1975 View Post
    not if that investor dollar cost averaged during that decade.

    and it actually took more like 15 years.

    QQQ was $110 in mid March 2000

    after the dot.com burst, it did not come back to $110 until May 2015

    however, you are making two BIG assumptions.

    1) the investor did NOT buy QQQ prior to the high point of March 2000 (height of dot.com era)

    2) the investor did NOT buy QQQ After the high point of March 2000

    you are assuming a buy right at the high point.

    I bought BTC for my first buy ever this past Jan at $42K

    I have been buying ever since, and increasing the dollar amounts as it has gotten lower.

    my cost today is $22K

    DOLLAR COST AVERAGING. not buy and hold. DCA

    it takes a lot of discipline and a lot of cash. i am fortunate on both fronts but i have saving for these moments for years, driving two reliable japanese cars while a bunch of show-offs around me are driving Teslas.

    guess which one has the money as we speak, to Dollar Cost Average ?
    Or you could have sat in cash and bought near the bottom and made a lot more $$$. Put a little bit in puts on the way down and you can make a fortune.

  29. #12454
    milwaukee mike
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    i guessed right on the market opening a bit higher, then going back down the toilet

    wynn/dkng getting crushed

  30. #12455
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by guitarjosh View Post
    Or you could have sat in cash and bought near the bottom and made a lot more $$$. Put a little bit in puts on the way down and you can make a fortune.
    Josher, All of this is easier said than done for the average joe passive retail investor like me.

    stock market hell in 2007? the true bottom was March 2009.

    let's do an experiment:

    let's pretend i am sitting in cash right now. all cash.

    and instead of buying incrementally into positions right now, or lowering my cost base like i am, i am sitting in cash and waiting to try and time a bottom.

    when should i buy? where is the bottom?

    you or anyone else, please tell me where the bottom is, when it happens.

    or maybe it already has?

  31. #12456
    trobin31
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    Quote Originally Posted by homie1975 View Post
    Josher, All of this is easier said than done for the average joe passive retail investor like me.

    stock market hell in 2007? the true bottom was March 2009.

    let's do an experiment:

    let's pretend i am sitting in cash right now. all cash.

    and instead of buying incrementally into positions right now, or lowering my cost base like i am, i am sitting in cash and waiting to try and time a bottom.

    when should i buy? where is the bottom?

    you or anyone else, please tell me where the bottom is, when it happens.

    or maybe it already has?
    Best bet on a true bottom having occurred is a Fed pivot, so yeah, no bottom yet.

  32. #12457
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    i guessed right on the market opening a bit higher, then going back down the toilet

    wynn/dkng getting crushed
    Seems to be based on expectation that California will reject Prop 27. Why??? Cal residents are actually going to vote against getting sports betting? Bizarre.

    Cali a massive market. Huge problem if it doesn't happen.

  33. #12458
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by trobin31 View Post
    Best bet on a true bottom having occurred is a Fed pivot, so yeah, no bottom yet.
    But won't the market bottom beforehand because somebody knows something, but it isn't the average Joe? Once the pivot is known, it will be too late.

  34. #12459
    Legions36
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    Quote Originally Posted by homie1975 View Post
    Josher, All of this is easier said than done for the average joe passive retail investor like me.

    stock market hell in 2007? the true bottom was March 2009.

    let's do an experiment:

    let's pretend i am sitting in cash right now. all cash.

    and instead of buying incrementally into positions right now, or lowering my cost base like i am, i am sitting in cash and waiting to try and time a bottom.

    when should i buy? where is the bottom?

    you or anyone else, please tell me where the bottom is, when it happens.

    or maybe it already has?
    Im doing the same as you with stocks, nobody can predict the bottom so its best just do what your doing right now if you want in more. It also feels harder to predict a bottom in stocks than it does with bitcoin and crypto.

  35. #12460
    milwaukee mike
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    homie and others talk about "the bottom" as though the future has some kind of guaranteed huge market rally in it

    i think we are in a period more like the 30s or 70s where interest rates are now higher, the risk appetite for stocks is now gone, and 10 years from now the market could be lower

    i think in terms of generations... baby boomers worked a lot, saved a lot, consumed a lot, invested a lot... current generation of 20-somethings (especially the men) don't care at all about working, a large % still live at home at age 25, way more people not having kids, way more illegal immigrants and mooches off the system

    just like booms create busts, excessive consumerism and gluttony create the opposite effect at some point. do i really need 6 tvs and 5 sets of golf clubs? i probably have 30 decent outfits i could wear today, younger generation is happy with 3

    i worked 100 hrs/week during tax season, younger generation is ok working 10... they aren't just gonna magically wake up one day and be motivated, so even if manufacturing gets "fully brought back" to the us, there will be nobody to work except illegals and venezuelans

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