[jjgold]

its bad

completely random short term

[homie1975]

very volatile, just like before the 1929 crash and 1987 crash

be careful, it's still october, and i'm hearing oct 28 is the real danger zone

TECH is due for a big rally. they are due.


S&P in 1987 Jan 1 through the OCT crash, rallied 32% before completely collapsing.

32% in less than 10 mos.

here in 2022, the opposite, we are down 22% YTD

i highly highly highly doubt a huge crash after we have already had a slow motion crash the last 11 mos

[guitarjosh]

TECH is due for a big rally. they are due.


S&P in 1987 Jan 1 through the OCT crash, rallied 32% before completely collapsing.

32% in less than 10 mos.

here in 2022, the opposite, we are down 22% YTD

i highly highly highly doubt a huge crash after we have already had a slow motion crash the last 11 mos

Give it time. I don't think it's imminent since it's already oversold, but I could see a nice 15% bounce followed by another nasty leg down.

[homie1975]

the market is dying to rally. it's dying to.

my post from this past Monday.

it is just dying to rally.

[Bostongambler]

It loves the slop…

[homie1975]

It loves the slop…

slop or slope ?

[homie1975]

Give it time. I don't think it's imminent since it's already oversold, but I could see a nice 15% bounce followed by another nasty leg down.

there was a cat on CNBC this afternoon named Ed Perdoni or similar and said exactly what you said: he is calling for a 15% rally from here.

[KVB]

Talking heads seemed too optimistic all day today.

Feel like everytime I checked in it was like "this just feels like something different, like a real rally and a turn" or whatever.

Not a good sign in my opinion, especially when I too expect a leg down.

[homie1975]

Talking heads seemed too optimistic all day today.

Feel like everytime I checked in it was like "this just feels like something different, like a real rally and a turn" or whatever.

Not a good sign in my opinion, especially when I too expect a leg down.

KVer on CNBC, the preponderance believe this is another fake out ala July.

i am hearing the opposite of you.

so much negativity and doomsday of impending recession all or most of 2023.

i am a contrarian.

i do not see anything systemic riskwise.

i am still bullish between now and 12/31/2023.

[KVB]

Pretty sure we'll be in a real recession in August next year.

Not between now and August, or by August, all that may or may not happen.

But come August of next year, we will be in an economic pickle. I believe this is forecast by sharp money in the bond markets.

Could be a lot of volatility and maybe even a flat market until then and, in fact, because that market and the economy aren't necessarily even always tied, we may not know where the market will be.

But conditions may be ripe for fear at that time.

I loaded up on LNG back when it was like $50 years ago thinking we would be helping China convert from coal. Well, that didn't really happen but energy has soared since then, and so has the stock.

Like energy has, I think some stocks could do very well, but my outlook for 10 months from now is not very positive for the markets overall.

[mr. leisure]

Next week is going to be interesting with all the big companies earnings reports . I hope they are not too brutal .

[homie1975]

Next week is going to be interesting with all the big companies earnings reports . I hope they are not too brutal .

I think the earnings will be fine, it's the forward guidance we should be concerned about. Remember, stocks are always forward looking.

[Slurry Pumper]

Hi all, I'm back from a few weeks of a bidness trip to some of the places where there is not infrastructure. After visiting the 3rd world again this time, I have to say that if I ever retire, I'm moving to the 3rd world to a spot where there is no electricity or running water or anything. It was so peaceful and quite a lost thing to realize the natural world.
Anyway, I'm back now and breaking down the market which for the most part is and was in a range for the last couple of weeks just like I thought it would be, even though I thought the range would set up a little higher than it is at.
As you know, I look at all the index charts from different timelines, and I noticed on the Dow yearly chart with daily candle closes as shown below:



So the red lines are a series of lower lows, the blue circles are where the price met up with the 50DMA or made a run for the 200 DMA, the red arrows show where the market took a dump right after getting to the 50 or 200DMA, and the yellow arrow indicate the difference in the next lower low.

Friday's close for the dow is right at the 50DMA, if you look at the stochastics and MACD on the bottom you can see where the stochastics are starting to get in the overbought condition, and the MACD is high but declining.

All of this is indicating to me that we may have a market at a point of inflection here, and another downturn may be in order starting sometime this week. If this happens there is a high likelihood of another lower low for the Dow. Since just about all the markets are trading in line for the most part, this would mean the entire stock market would follow.
Not highlighted but noted by me is some heavy resistance for the Dow at around the 31400 to 31500 area with the 100DMA. I'm waiting to see if it can push through this level before going long, and will probably be buying PUTS as it approaches this milestone in other indexes like my old favorites for the year QQQ, SPY, IWM, SMH and XLF. With the election coming in a few weeks, we still have that looming 7 year tin foil hat event hanging in my mind, and that election October surprise thing so keeps you eyes open for some crazy crap coming.

[KVB]

Agree slurry, I’m seeing potential for another down leg.

[homie1975]

Slurry and KVer
i respect the BeJesus out of you two.

but i am a contrarian here.

i see a huge tech rebound and fuel for a 10%+ move higher over the next 3 weeks.

[KVB]

Slurry and KVer
i respect the BeJesus out of you two.

but i am a contrarian here.

i see a huge tech rebound and fuel for a 10%+ move higher over the next 3 weeks.

It's my feel, and I know situations can change after breaking though, that even if there is higher bump, which could be, we are still in for a downleg that erases these broader gains.

Ok, college openers are out, time to study.

[homie1975]

Futures in green let's get some follow thru tomorrow Gents

[Slurry Pumper]

Slurry and KVer
i respect the BeJesus out of you two.

but i am a contrarian here.

i see a huge tech rebound and fuel for a 10%+ move higher over the next 3 weeks.

Hi Homie, this is why I post here. I want to see different opinions on the market with people who I respect that are paying attention to the markets, and may have a differing opinion than me. It helps me keep an eye on things that I may have over looked.

While I think there is a leg down soon, it could be delayed a few weeks for longer while the Dow chart moves up to the 200 DMA, and if it does, the QQQ's will probably be the engine that makes that happen. When I chart read it is just a gauge and a predictor. The market can very well be moving up in the next coupe of weeks. I just think the preponderance of evidence is pointing to a down market over the next few weeks starting sometime this week.

[homie1975]

Slurry, my feeling is we were oversold for several weeks and that's why why got a rally the last week or so.

just like a raging bull market needs "any excuse" as my guy KVer says, to go Red, an oversold market needs any excuse IMO to make a run.

i believed prior to this earnings season that the numbers would be a bit better than anticipated and the forward guidance carefully delivered, and I think we see more of the same this week.

i would be surprised (not shocked) if we were not at least 3-5% higher on the SPX and DAQ by next Friday 10/28 than we open at tomorrow.

[homie1975]

S&P data show rate of inflation in manufacturing is tamest in two years

[d2bets]

S&P data show rate of inflation in manufacturing is tamest in two years

Yeah, I think that's overcoming the Chinese problem for now. That seems to be a major headwind today. Chinese stocks really cratering.

Anyone biting on NIO down over 20% today? Seems like a bit of an overreaction.

[milwaukee mike]

Yeah, I think that's overcoming the Chinese problem for now. That seems to be a major headwind today. Chinese stocks really cratering.

Anyone biting on NIO down over 20% today? Seems like a bit of an overreaction.

i think i'd rather buy more WYNN at 54

quite a few stocks on my list down around 10% today that aren't even china... frey/aan/cvna/crct

[homie1975]

Most big tech earnings estimates were already cut 30-40% mid quarter. Goalposts moved up not back. Hmmmmmm

[Slurry Pumper]

Yeah we had a run up yesterday right to about the levels I was talking about for a turn back. So far this morning the futures while down, they are not telling me that there is a rejection of the resistance levels. I'm on the downturn camp here this week, but as I'm trying to be the umpire here calling balls and strikes, the tape does look bullish to me so far this week and this morning as well.
Today we get some FANG members coming in after the bell so will it be enough to push this market higher in the short term. Still later in the week we have GDP numbers coming in for the 3rd quarter. I think the consensus is too high with the 2.3% and a big miss would certainly qualify as a catalyst.
On the SPY the next level of resistance I see if it pushes higher is the $382 (smallish), and then $385 which is a popcorn watcher. Down south this morning around 377 on the SPY represents a spot where the bulls start to fumble the ball here, and below 374 would represent a change in possession.

[d2bets]

Quite a rally this morning. Nazz down over 2% early, now almost even. Dow up over 1% at 32,160.

[d2bets]

Wow @ FB (Meta). Down over 22% today. Will be trading at a 5+ year low and down over 70% from a high last summer. Market cap over 1 trillion at one point, now will be under 300 billion.

[KVB]

I go back to all that froth, like Meta and even around the time of the Tesla split.

I believe those chickens will come home to roost, across a lot sectors. This little Dow/Nasdaq split, even in the futures makes me worry more than not.

But to be honest I haven't totally formulated why that is. Maybe someone will chime in shoot me down or tell me what I'm missing.

That little rally from earlier that you mentioned seems a little off to me.

[guitarjosh]

3 month treasury now getting a better return than the 10 year treasury. Unless the Fed cuts rates, we'll be in a recession within a year.

[KVB]

3 month treasury now getting a better return than the 10 year treasury. Unless the Fed cuts rates, we'll be in a recession within a year.

Didn't we kind of know this from the 1-30 year in August?

It's like we're just taking that next step, heading down that path.

..But come August of next year, we will be in an economic pickle. I believe this is forecast by sharp money in the bond markets...

[homie1975]

here come the Big Boys AAPL and AMZN tomorrow

you know the ole' saying -- don't make any trades until Apple reports.

see you tomorrow...........

[homie1975]

Wow @ FB (Meta). Down over 22% today. Will be trading at a 5+ year low and down over 70% from a high last summer. Market cap over 1 trillion at one point, now will be under 300 billion.

BUY BUY BUY and HOOOOOOOOLLLLLDDDDDDD

[d2bets]

BUY BUY BUY and HOOOOOOOOLLLLLDDDDDDD

You like FB specifically?

If FB opens where it traded after hours, it'll be its lowest levels since 2015(!). 7 years during which time the market more than doubled. That's unreal.

[homie1975]

You like FB specifically?

If FB opens where it traded after hours, it'll be its lowest levels since 2015(!). 7 years during which time the market more than doubled. That's unreal.

There are other blue chips probably in the same boat.

Long term I believe in them and their vision for the metaverse.

[guitarjosh]

Didn't we kind of know this from the 1-30 year in August?

It's like we're just taking that next step, heading down that path.

Yeah but it's another box that is checked.

[d2bets]

There are other blue chips probably in the same boat.

Long term I believe in them and their vision for the metaverse.

Are there? Back to 2015 levels? Name them.

I'd still rather buy and hold Nvidia. That's one to accumulate forever.