I mentioned we would try to beat the CFL one quarter of a season at a time and here is a basic review of the betting during the third quarter of this season.
Here is a link to the detailed record of the 2
nd quarter wherein there is a link to the details of the first part of the season:
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...l#post24498219
Again, the review is like last time. It is broken down into all the bold plays I’ve listed as well as just the first buy point for each game, which wasn’t always the best line or price. On the left is my record per game. If you just entered the market once, on my first play posted, then that would be an issue.
Like always, you can see the results per $100 bet for each bold play and each issue as well as the crude review of the closing line and whether it was beat.
There is also a column where you can see whether I, or the models being worked with, predicted the line movement.
There were no unpredictable movements on these plays but there is an improvement over the first half of the season as far as getting the best line, or better than the closing line.
|
|
|
|
$100 Bet |
|
Closing |
Beat the |
Predict |
|
|
Play |
Result |
Per Bold |
Per Issue |
Price |
Closer? |
Movement? |
1-0 |
3-Sep |
BC +5 (-107) |
W |
93.46 |
93.46 |
5 |
= |
Y |
2-0 |
6-Sep |
SSK/Win OVER 50.5 (-102) |
W |
98.04 |
98.04 |
50.5 |
= |
Y |
3-0 |
|
SSK/Win 2nd OVER24.5 (-106) |
W |
94.34 |
94.34 |
24.5 |
= |
|
3-1 |
7-Sep |
Edm 1st +2.5 (-110) |
L |
-100 |
-100 |
2.5 |
= |
|
3-2 |
|
Edm +5 (-106) |
L |
-100 |
-100 |
+4 |
+ |
Y |
3-3 |
|
Edm +180 |
L |
-100 |
-100 |
+160 |
+ |
Y |
4-3 |
|
Edm 2nd pk (+107) |
W |
107 |
107 |
pk |
= |
|
4-4 |
12-Sep |
SSK -1 (-105) |
L |
-100 |
-100 |
-1 |
= |
Y |
5-4 |
|
SSK/Win UNDER 50.5 (-106) |
W |
94.34 |
94.34 |
50.5 |
= |
Y |
6-4 |
|
Edm -106 |
W |
94.34 |
94.34 |
-115 |
+ |
Y |
7-4 |
|
Edm -1 (+102) |
W |
102 |
102 |
-1 |
+ |
Y |
8-4 |
13-Sep |
Ott/BC UNDER 50.5 (-106) |
W |
94.34 |
94.34 |
49.5 |
+ |
Y |
8-5 |
18-Sep |
BC/Cal UNDER 47 (-105) |
L |
-100 |
-100 |
46.5 |
+ |
Y |
9-5 |
|
Cal -11.5 (-115) |
W |
86.96 |
86.96 |
-11.5 |
= |
Y |
|
|
Cal -11 (-105) |
W |
95.24 |
|
|
|
|
10-5 |
19-Sep |
Edm +6 (-112) |
W |
89.29 |
89.29 |
+6 |
= |
Y |
|
|
Edm +5.5 (-101) |
W |
99.01 |
|
|
|
|
11-5 |
|
Edm +230 |
W |
230 |
230 |
+210 |
+ |
Y |
12-5 |
|
Ott/Ssk OVER 50.5 (-108) |
W |
92.59 |
92.59 |
52 |
+ |
|
12-5-1 |
25-Sep |
Cal/Win OVER 48 (-105) |
P |
0 |
0 |
47.5 |
+ |
Y |
12-6-1 |
26-Sep |
BC/Edm UNDER 46 (-103) |
L |
-100 |
-100 |
46.5 |
- |
Y |
|
|
BC/Edm UNDER 46.5 (-107) |
L |
-100 |
|
|
|
|
12-7-1 |
|
Ott -2.5 (-106) |
L |
-100 |
-100 |
-2.5 |
= |
Y |
|
|
Ott -2 (-105) |
L |
-100 |
|
|
|
|
12-8-1 |
|
Ott -120 |
L |
-100 |
-100 |
-140 |
+ |
Y |
13-8-1 |
|
Ott 2nd -4 (-120) |
W |
83.33 |
83.33 |
-5 |
= |
|
13-9-1 |
27-Sep |
Mon -120 |
L |
-100 |
-100 |
-130 |
+ |
Y |
14-9-1 |
|
Mon/Ssk OVER 49 (-104) |
W |
96.15 |
96.15 |
49 |
= |
Y |
15-9-1 |
1-Oct |
Ott -130 |
W |
76.92 |
76.92 |
-130 |
= |
Y |
16-9-1 |
2-Oct |
Cal/Ham UNDER 49.5 (-107) |
W |
93.46 |
93.46 |
48 |
+ |
Y |
17-9-1 |
3-Oct |
Win +6 (-102) |
W |
98.04 |
98.04 |
6 |
= |
Y |
18-9-1 |
|
Win 2nd +2.5 (+105) |
W |
105 |
105 |
2.5 |
= |
|
18-10-1 |
|
Ssk/BC UNDER 51 (-105) |
L |
-100 |
-100 |
51 |
= |
Y |
18-11-1 |
|
Ssk/BC 2nd UNDER 26 (-110) |
L |
-100 |
-100 |
26 |
= |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
18-11-1 |
|
|
|
723.85 |
729.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7-2-1 |
|
1st Quarter Results |
|
424.05 |
437.52 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
19-12 |
|
2nd Quarter Results |
|
1527.7 |
872.25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
44-25-2 |
|
Total |
|
2675.6 |
2039.37 |
|
|
|
For the third quarter, weeks 6 through 10, I was 18-11-1 on individual issues and, including the 1
st and 2
nd quarters, am 44-25 overall. Of those 44 wins and 25 losses, 16 wins and 9 losses are Total bets.
Also, of that 44-25 record, 9 wins and 7 losses were from moneyline bets.
That leaves a record against the sides of 19 wins and 9 losses.
If you had just bet the first buy point listed in bold for each game you would be positive nearly 7.3 units this quarter and 20.39 units overall. The 9-7 moneyline record shows profit and represents about 5.10 of those 20.39 units.
A bettor betting each bold play posted would be positive 7.24 units this quarter and 26.76 units overall.
A bettor betting 2% of starting bankroll, not adjusting the bet size, would be up over 40% or over 53% of that bankroll since July 9
th, depending on the strategy employed.