[ChuckyTheGoat]

Post your NFL Best Bet here.

Thx to Khicks and Old Bill for posting good content.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: 470 DENVER BRONCOS +1.5 (1.88). $100 to win 88.

[khicks26]

Another betting show I started watching.

[khicks26]

Playing: 470 DENVER BRONCOS +1.5 (1.88). $100 to win 88.

Man dude! How can you be so sure so fast?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Man dude! How can you be so sure so fast?

I like grabbing early #s in case the line flips. In this case, I might have missed b/c Jones might play.

In general, I view the early # as softer than the late #.

PS: Follow Jimmy The Bag at your own risk. Guy used to post HERE.

2nd PS: Joe Fortenbaugh also got his start here (at SBR), if you can believe that.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Walt mentions the New Eng game. Like I said, BRUTAL.

Bettors get accustomed to swings. Sometimes, it's Win to a Push. The full 8-unit swing is a dagger.

https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2023_07early.php

[khicks26]

I like grabbing early #s in case the line flips. In this case, I might have missed b/c Jones might play.

In general, I view the early # as softer than the late #.

PS: Follow Jimmy The Bag at your own risk. Guy used to post HERE.

2nd PS: Joe Fortenbaugh also got his start here (at SBR), if you can believe that.

LMAO I thought I heard of that guy before. The show reminds me of SBR. To funny!


I use it more for information, looking for a nugget that will help me pick a side. Not really tailing Jimmy. They have a group of cappers that come on and give opinions. Could be many former SBR poster on show.

Not sure who Joe is.

[khicks26]

Walt mentions the New Eng game. Like I said, BRUTAL.

Bettors get accustomed to swings. Sometimes, it's Win to a Push. The full 8-unit swing is a dagger.

https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2023_07early.php

He seems to be taking it well, but yea that one was a killer.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

LMAO I thought I heard of that guy before. The show reminds me of SBR. To funny!


I use it more for information, looking for a nugget that will help me pick a side. Not really tailing Jimmy. They have a group of cappers that come on and give opinions. Could be many former SBR poster on show.

Not sure who Joe is.

Going back about 8 years, Joe was part of video report here at SBR. He was on TV (ESPN, I think) for one of the sports-betting shows.

I can say this for Joe:
1) He looks the part.
2) He's very well-spoken.
...As for his ATS results, I'm not sure.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

You know I can talk about this stuff forever. I have one basic idea, and it loosely ties out to my Walter opinion.

*There's WAY too much of this betting information out there.
...As if the chatter translates to Dollars in your pocket.
...And yes, I belly-laugh anytime I hear the Vrabel ATS Dog stat.

I dare someone to show me one of the TV sports-bettors who shows me a panelist who has documented profit over 1000+ games.
...It's just fodder.
...I sometimes like to listen to pickup Fade value.

[khicks26]

Going back about 8 years, Joe was part of video report here at SBR. He was on TV (ESPN, I think) for one of the sports-betting shows.

I can say this for Joe:
1) He looks the part.
2) He's very well-spoken.
...As for his ATS results, I'm not sure.

If you want some bad news, Jimmy and the other guy on the show both want to take Denver this week. LOL

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Here's the Millman podcast. I have to correct myself on one note:

*This bearded guy (Simon) is apparently better than I first thought.
...He seems to be well-connected.
...And he apparently bets his own $$ and for a good amount.

He likes the Eagles this week, and I could see it. Personally, I think my buy-price = Phi -1.
...The Eagle injury report looks promising. Slay should return. And Jalen Carter (who is proving to be a beast) returns after being held out for precaution versus the Jets.
...The one guy I'd want to hear good news on = OT Lane Johnson.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

If you want some bad news, Jimmy and the other guy on the show both want to take Denver this week. LOL

Even a Blind Squirrel finds a nut every now and then.

[khicks26]

You know I can talk about this stuff forever. I have one basic idea, and it loosely ties out to my Walter opinion.

*There's WAY too much of this betting information out there.
...As if the chatter translates to Dollars in your pocket.
...And yes, I belly-laugh anytime I hear the Vrabel ATS Dog stat.

I dare someone to show me one of the TV sports-bettors who shows me a panelist who has documented profit over 1000+ games.
...It's just fodder.
...I sometimes like to listen to pickup Fade value.

Lets face it. If they were good cappers they wouldn't be on TV. A guy like Walt does it because he loves it.

[khicks26]

Even a Blind Squirrel finds a nut every now and then.

LMAO, I see your not a fan of Jimmy.

[khicks26]

Here's the Millman podcast. I have to correct myself on one note:

*This bearded guy (Simon) is apparently better than I first thought.
...He seems to be well-connected.
...And he apparently bets his own $$ and for a good amount.

He likes the Eagles this week, and I could see it. Personally, I think my buy-price = Phi -1.
...The Eagle injury report looks promising. Slay should return. And Jalen Carter (who is proving to be a beast) returns after being held out for precaution versus the Jets.
...The one guy I'd want to hear good news on = OT Lane Johnson.

I will have to check it out. Eagles are the only game I like this week so far.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Walt this week:



Raiders - his worst beat ever.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I will have to check it out. Eagles are the only game I like this week so far.

I'm torn on that game:

1) The Armstead/Achane injuries bother me.

2) That said, I'm a little surprised that guy's ready to knee-jerk to the Eagles.
...I'm still not sure people have digested the crazy Dolphin stats.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I think there are some opportunities this week. A few comments on the backup QBs:

1) If Hoyer starts, I'll say that he's beyond horrible.
...He's played sparingly (and not too well) in the L6 years.
...He's only gotten older. I'd view his projection as very low.
...IMHO, he's been on rosters b/c the coaches know him and they know he's reliable to run practice and run their playbook.

2) Not everyone knows this. PJ Walker was in Bear camp.
...Walker got beat out by Peterman/Walker.

3) Most will view Bagent as a total unknown.
...See above. He did beat out veterans to win the backup job.
...He played well in preseason. The Bear GM liked his ability to read defenses. Thought he could be an asset to Fields in game-prep.
...He's actually the Superman of lower-division NCAA QBs. Started from the start, set the record for NCAA TD passes across all levels.

[khicks26]

Walt this week:



Raiders - his worst beat ever.

No bets yet, but he likes.

Falcons +2.5 (3 Units)

Ravens -3 (2 Units)

Giants +2 (3-5 Units)

Cardinals +8 (4 Units)

Steelers +3 (2 Units)

Dolphins +1.5 (2 Units)

Everything else is 0 Units or Units TBA.

Not big on any of these, not really opposed to them either. I hope more info or some type of edge comes out later in the week.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I agree with Walt on: Ravens/Giants/Pitt.

Torn on the Mia/Phi game.

[khicks26]

I'm torn on that game:

1) The Armstead/Achane injuries bother me.

2) That said, I'm a little surprised that guy's ready to knee-jerk to the Eagles.
...I'm still not sure people have digested the crazy Dolphin stats.

Me too. Eagles maybe without their best O Linemen and the secondary is a mess playing 15 different players this year so far. Not what you want against the Miami offense.

Interesting trend for what its worth: Eagles home fav after a loss 6-27 against the spread 14 -18 straight up.

[khicks26]

I agree with Walt on: Ravens/Giants/Pitt.

Torn on the Mia/Phi game.

Those do seem like the spots and he makes some points for the Ravans against my Lions.

[khicks26]

I think there are some opportunities this week. A few comments on the backup QBs:

1) If Hoyer starts, I'll say that he's beyond horrible.
...He's played sparingly (and not too well) in the L6 years.
...He's only gotten older. I'd view his projection as very low.
...IMHO, he's been on rosters b/c the coaches know him and they know he's reliable to run practice and run their playbook.

2) Not everyone knows this. PJ Walker was in Bear camp.
...Walker got beat out by Peterman/Walker.

3) Most will view Bagent as a total unknown.
...See above. He did beat out veterans to win the backup job.
...He played well in preseason. The Bear GM liked his ability to read defenses. Thought he could be an asset to Fields in game-prep.
...He's actually the Superman of lower-division NCAA QBs. Started from the start, set the record for NCAA TD passes across all levels.

Walt was going to watch some tape Bagent from preseason. Will have more info in his Thursday update.

[khicks26]

Prop bets I like so far.

OVER 15.5

Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards over 15.5





OVER 35.5

Rashee Rice Receiving Yards over 35.5




ISIAH PACHECO

Anytime TD Scorer Pacheco



Pacheco seeing more targets this year and the KC WR's not the best.

Rice is the best of the KC WR's I think Mahomes is starting to trust him and Watson out this week.

48 total Pacheco should get 6 of them.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx for posting, Khicks.

See this thread:
https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...op-bettor.html

I present the idea that Over in prop-bets can sometimes look too good to be true.

*In the case of these two, I know they're young. So, maybe the Prob (injury) is low. 2%?

Back when I bet Game totals and Props, any success I had was usually to the Under. A few basic principles in place:
1) I believe in the Injury factor I post.
2) Math concept called left-truncated distribution.
...Take any game stat that comes out in whole numbers. Say Receptions.
...When you look at a player AVERAGE, he likely has a few good games and some low # games.
...Well, if the average is a low #, the MIN the player can record = zero. Can't have -1.

Net impact is that the Median does not line up exactly to the Mean. Soccer O/U bettors know this.

Under a standard distribution, Mean of 2.5 shows that F(2.5) = .544.
...Why is that?
...Has to do with the results being capped on the left side. Can't record -1 goals.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I think there are some opportunities this week. A few comments on the backup QBs:

1) If Hoyer starts, I'll say that he's beyond horrible.
...He's played sparingly (and not too well) in the L6 years.
...He's only gotten older. I'd view his projection as very low.
...IMHO, he's been on rosters b/c the coaches know him and they know he's reliable to run practice and run their playbook.

2) Not everyone knows this. PJ Walker was in Bear camp.
...Walker got beat out by Peterman/Walker.

3) Most will view Bagent as a total unknown.
...See above. He did beat out veterans to win the backup job.
...He played well in preseason. The Bear GM liked his ability to read defenses. Thought he could be an asset to Fields in game-prep.
...He's actually the Superman of lower-division NCAA QBs. Started from the start, set the record for NCAA TD passes across all levels.

Was there ever a chance Garappolo wasn't going to miss? With a back, I thought it was very likely he'd miss.

Would have been nice to have a position at +3. Much harder at +2.5. My opinion is that:
*Dropoff from Garap to Hoyer = large.
*Dropoff from Fields to Bagent = small.

I expect Bagent to play well. I expect Hoyer's play-calls to be very pedestrian.

I don't know why they wouldn't start O'Connell. I thought he played fine against the Chargers.

[khicks26]

Thx for posting, Khicks.

See this thread:
https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...op-bettor.html

I present the idea that Over in prop-bets can sometimes look too good to be true.

*In the case of these two, I know they're young. So, maybe the Prob (injury) is low. 2%?

Back when I bet Game totals and Props, any success I had was usually to the Under. A few basic principles in place:
1) I believe in the Injury factor I post.
2) Math concept called left-truncated distribution.
...Take any game stat that comes out in whole numbers. Say Receptions.
...When you look at a player AVERAGE, he likely has a few good games and some low # games.
...Well, if the average is a low #, the MIN the player can record = zero. Can't have -1.

Net impact is that the Median does not line up exactly to the Mean. Soccer O/U bettors know this.

Under a standard distribution, Mean of 2.5 shows that F(2.5) = .544.
...Why is that?
...Has to do with the results being capped on the left side. Can't record -1 goals.

Oh yea unders are the sharp play. Injuries, game script, dropped balls, fumbles and other factors play against the over. Plus the simple fact that people want to route for a player to do well and the books know this.

So why am I betting the over?

The numbers are low and could happen in one play. I also noticed that Pacheco is more involved in the pass game as of late. Rec Yds first 6 games 31, 0, 16, 43, 9, 36. Mahomes is his QB and besides Kelcie his pass catchers are sub-par. Guess who also ranks dead last against the pass, LAC.

With Rice, I think he is becoming Mahomes most reliable Non-tight end target. Just a few trends I have noticed with the Chiefs.

As for the Pacheco TD, just a feeling and a guess in a 48 total game.


Could I be wrong? Hell yea, that's why its gambling.

[khicks26]

One other prop that stuck out to me.

Nelson Agholor over 22.5 rec yds. Lions rank dead last against slot WR. Lamar likes and trust him. Rec yds first 6 weeks 0, 63, 39, 4, 64, 40. I also doubt the Ravens will be able to run the ball against the Lions D. Its also going to be windy, so not going to be many down fields throws.

[khicks26]

Was there ever a chance Garappolo wasn't going to miss? With a back, I thought it was very likely he'd miss.

Would have been nice to have a position at +3. Much harder at +2.5. My opinion is that:
*Dropoff from Garap to Hoyer = large.
*Dropoff from Fields to Bagent = small.

I expect Bagent to play well. I expect Hoyer's play-calls to be very pedestrian.

I don't know why they wouldn't start O'Connell. I thought he played fine against the Chargers.

Walt liking the Bears for those reasons as well.

[BradytheK9]

Im pretty sure the most common margin of victory in NFL games played the last few yrs prior to current season is 3 points, followed by 7, 6 & 10. Idk what #s are if results for current season included.

[BradytheK9]

I think Richee Rice will have good week. From whats been said about him by KC staff & teammates so far looks good for the rookie. He'll keep improving & skies the limit as long as he continues gaining Mahomes' trust and stays healthy. Very good football IQ.

[khicks26]

I think Richee Rice will have good week. From whats been said about him by KC staff & teammates so far looks good for the rookie. He'll keep improving & skies the limit as long as he continues gaining Mahomes' trust and stays healthy. Very good football IQ.

That's what I'm hoping for. GL this week.

[khicks26]

Oh yea unders are the sharp play. Injuries, game script, dropped balls, fumbles and other factors play against the over. Plus the simple fact that people want to route for a player to do well and the books know this.

So why am I betting the over?

The numbers are low and could happen in one play. I also noticed that Pacheco is more involved in the pass game as of late. Rec Yds first 6 games 31, 0, 16, 43, 9, 36. Mahomes is his QB and besides Kelcie his pass catchers are sub-par. Guess who also ranks dead last against the pass, LAC.

With Rice, I think he is becoming Mahomes most reliable Non-tight end target. Just a few trends I have noticed with the Chiefs.

As for the Pacheco TD, just a feeling and a guess in a 48 total game.


Could I be wrong? Hell yea, that's why its gambling.

One other prop that stuck out to me.

Nelson Agholor over 22.5 rec yds. Lions rank dead last against slot WR. Lamar likes and trust him. Rec yds first 6 weeks 0, 63, 39, 4, 64, 40. I also doubt the Ravens will be able to run the ball against the Lions D. Its also going to be windy, so not going to be many down fields throws.

Also must note that these are small bets and SGP.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Im pretty sure the most common margin of victory in NFL games played the last few yrs prior to current season is 3 points, followed by 7, 6 & 10. Idk what #s are if results for current season included.

Brady, I think you're right. But you bring up a great point:
*The BEST nfl handicapper is going to study the Landing Points and figure out the probabilities.

If there are a few trends in recent years, I'd start with this:
1) Pushing the Extra Points back = significant.
...The 20-yd extra pt was automatic.
...A 33-yd extra pt = like 33%. Higher if you're Justin Tucker. Lower if there are wind factors.

2) These teams look more and more similar.
...Call it the Rozelle principle of parity.
...Most games are seemingly competitive. TV doesn't like blowout games.

3) The revised Overtime rule will produce more Ties.
...None so far this year. But always a prospect.