[khicks26]

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 last year, and they are now 12-10 ATS.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

49ers -9
Eagles -6.5
Dolphins -14.5
Bengals -3


The public was 2-2 on sides last week, losing the 49ers and Eagles, but winning with the Dolphins and Bengals.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Browns -2
49ers -7
Raiders -3
Buccaneers -2.5
Seahawks -8.5


Surprise, surprise, three road favorites as the most highly bet teams. Didn’t see that one coming!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Ya, the Browns stick out as the most obvious coming off the big upset. This Watson drama never seems to end.

Will be interesting to see how the Browns season plays out. Would be a shame to waste a defense that's on a historic pace. Supposedly, the medical reports show that Watson's injury is more serious than first thought.

[khicks26]

Ya, the Browns stick out as the most obvious coming off the big upset. This Watson drama never seems to end.

Will be interesting to see how the Browns season plays out. Would be a shame to waste a defense that's on a historic pace. Supposedly, the medical reports show that Watson's injury is more serious than first thought.

That guy has been nothing but trouble for that team. Those poor Brown's fans.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

That guy has been nothing but trouble for that team. Those poor Brown's fans.

Watson doesn't need to play the Lottery. He already hit it.

I do think the betting markets are whacked as far as the Brown QBs, tho:
*As much of a cancer that Watson is, they need him this year to do anything.
*DTR showed he's not ready.
*I mentioned that Walker got beaten out by Bagent. His level is not high. Career TD/INT = 5/13.
...Props to Walker for competing. But he's low-level.

The true difference between Watson to Walker has to be 3+ pts. And that's even if Watson looks just OK.

[khicks26]

Watson doesn't need to play the Lottery. He already hit it.

I do think the betting markets are whacked as far as the Brown QBs, tho:
*As much of a cancer that Watson is, they need him this year to do anything.
*DTR showed he's not ready.
*I mentioned that Walker got beaten out by Bagent. His level is not high. Career TD/INT = 5/13.
...Props to Walker for competing. But he's low-level.

The true difference between Watson to Walker has to be 3+ pts. And that's even if Watson looks just OK.

So you are liking the Browns if Watson plays? Line is -3.5

[ChuckyTheGoat]

So you are liking the Browns if Watson plays? Line is -3.5

No. Value of 3 is too heavy.

[khicks26]

No. Value of 3 is too heavy.

Walts Saturday update.


SATURDAY NOTES: I was planning to bet the Browns at -3, but some of the sharps had similar ideas, taking the line to -3.5. The number sucks, but this doesn’t: I did my research on backup quarterbacks in the NFL. I looked at the previous 75 times a backup quarterback has started in the NFL. Overall, they’re 39-35-1 ATS, but against top-12 defenses, they’re only 11-20. Many of their wins can be explained, too, like the 49ers suffering countless injuries last week. In short, Gardner Minshew cannot be trusted in this matchup, and I have some interest in betting Cleveland at -3.5. Of course, I’m going to search for a viable -3.

[khicks26]

Don't really have a best bet this week, but I will go with the one I like the best.

NYG +3 at home.

Howell is the most sacked QB in the league because he holds the ball to long. The Giants blitz more than any team in the NFL. Taylor is starting and not as mistake prone as Jones has been. Barkley played well last week, and the team looked better against a good Buffalo team.

The trends also favor the Giants.

History: Giants have won 23 of the last 33 meetings (except the 2022 tie).
Redskins are 19-32 ATS after a road win since 2000.

[khicks26]

May or may not bet these leans.

Lions if I get +3.5

ATL if I get +3

Bears if I get +3

Also starting to like Miami now at +3.

[khicks26]

Here's the Millman podcast. I have to correct myself on one note:

*This bearded guy (Simon) is apparently better than I first thought.
...He seems to be well-connected.
...And he apparently bets his own $$ and for a good amount.

He likes the Eagles this week, and I could see it. Personally, I think my buy-price = Phi -1.
...The Eagle injury report looks promising. Slay should return. And Jalen Carter (who is proving to be a beast) returns after being held out for precaution versus the Jets.
...The one guy I'd want to hear good news on = OT Lane Johnson.

Really good show thanks for posting.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Don't really have a best bet this week, but I will go with the one I like the best.

NYG +3 at home.

Howell is the most sacked QB in the league because he holds the ball to long. The Giants blitz more than any team in the NFL. Taylor is starting and not as mistake prone as Jones has been. Barkley played well last week, and the team looked better against a good Buffalo team.

The trends also favor the Giants.

History: Giants have won 23 of the last 33 meetings (except the 2022 tie).
Redskins are 19-32 ATS after a road win since 2000.

I played Giants at +2.5 and again at +3.

Re: the Millman show, per usual, take it with a grain of salt. Remember that he's trying to make a business out of information. I know Millman bets but I think he'd say that he doesn't do it professionally.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Heard one Giant stat that's promising. QB Taylor has an incredibly low career INT ratio.

He may not PRODUCE much offense. If you believe his career stats, he probably won't hurt his team with INTs.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

May or may not bet these leans.

Lions if I get +3.5

ATL if I get +3

Bears if I get +3

Also starting to like Miami now at +3.

I have been taking some stabs at Bears +3 (1.85).
...Of course, I wish I had the foresight to know Garappolo would be out. Now it seems obvious that he would skip with the back injury.
...If there's one thing that I'm confident of on Sunday, it's that Hoyer will look bad. In my mind, Hoyer is a dead guy. Doctor just didn't have the heart to tell him that the pulse has flat-lined.

[khicks26]

I played Giants at +2.5 and again at +3.

Re: the Millman show, per usual, take it with a grain of salt. Remember that he's trying to make a business out of information. I know Millman bets but I think he'd say that he doesn't do it professionally.

Cool, that makes me feel better about it.


Yea he seems pretty slick, must be nice to make a living out of this.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Cool, that makes me feel better about it.


Yea he seems pretty slick, must be nice to make a living out of this.

He wrote this book some years ago. Mostly documents Alan Boston's daily journey.

If you like reading this stuff, I recommend it. Entertaining, but it doesn't get much into strategy.

Millman is a writer/salesman. That said, Millman/Simon do present some good angles on that podcast.

https://www.amazon.com/Odds-Season-T.../dp/0306811561

[khicks26]

I have been taking some stabs at Bears +3 (1.85).
...Of course, I wish I had the foresight to know Garappolo would be out. Now it seems obvious that he would skip with the back injury.
...If there's one thing that I'm confident of on Sunday, it's that Hoyer will look bad. In my mind, Hoyer is a dead guy. Doctor just didn't have the heart to tell him that the pulse has flat-lined.

LMAO, Yea I was thinking the AOC kid would have been a better start too. Raiders head coach McDaniels doesn't seem like a good fit for the job.

[khicks26]

He wrote this book some years ago. Mostly documents Alan Boston's daily journey.

If you like reading this stuff, I recommend it. Entertaining, but it doesn't get much into strategy.

Millman is a writer/salesman. That said, Millman/Simon do present some good angles on that podcast.

https://www.amazon.com/Odds-Season-T.../dp/0306811561

When does the movie come out? Kind of makes me think of Rounders reading the description.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

When does the movie come out? Kind of makes me think of Rounders reading the description.

I'm sure Millman would do it if it made him some $$. Alan Boston is a guy who made a living gambling. But that's a LONG time ago. Doubtful that Boston could clear a profit versus the modern line.

And the book didn't get into strategy at all. Boston apparently was very good at knowing personnel.

[khicks26]

I'm sure Millman would do it if it made him some $$. Alan Boston is a guy who made a living gambling. But that's a LONG time ago. Doubtful that Boston could clear a profit versus the modern line.

And the book didn't get into strategy at all. Boston apparently was very good at knowing personnel.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Loved that part of the movie.

"Now I gotta look out for the Golden Jew."

[khicks26]

Nice job last week. Looks like you were on the right side of things.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nice job last week. Looks like you were on the right side of things.

Thanks, khicks. Felt good to have a very good week.

Been travelling this week. Just catching up on messages.

If there's one topic that I think has validity, it's *Incremental Value of Starting QB to Backup QB.

This is not a blanket value that can be applied to each team at the same figure. And I have an opinion that the market does not always adjust for this efficiently.

As an example, I thought the difference:
*Veg: Garappolo to Hoyer was at least 3 pts.
...Granted, 3 is a key #, so 3 to 2.5 is like 1.5 on standard pt-move.
*Cle: Watson to Walker = 3 pts.
...Now, CLE has won two games behind Walker so people aren't sure.
...Remember that Bagent beat out Walker in pre-season.
*Chi: Fields to Bagent = 1 pt.
...Really feel like the difference isn't that big. And most people wouldn't think that.