[2daBank]

back from my nice little break after the all star break, bringing if nothing else some much needed reasonably intelligent discussion to this place..hopefully some winners as well but lets face it it the freaking nfl and yr to yr who fukkin knows really? i certainly dont claim to, all i can do is give ya my thoughts on gms and what im playing then sit back and hope it isnt a disaster of a year...

not a huge fan of week 1, generally love week 2 but that getting ahead of myself. there is 1 i played early in the week and seeing how the line is starting to drop figured id post it while it can still be had...will have more time to discuss later on but as i said just wanted it to be a line that can still be had even tho i think it prob 4 points to high no sense not getting the best of it if possible..

sea/car un 45

[HardCore]

Good to see you back banker nice play i got my Indy -6.5 play way back in early August so I definatly feel u on beating the market. And I know it's football time but wtf happend to your cardinals, they've looked average at best since the all star break.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Whats up Banker? I feel the same as you and never cut loose too much in wk 1. Some dogs look interesting for sure Panthers, Titans, Bungles, Viqueens an I lean Donkos tomorrow night. Probably just play 2 or 3 plays not for much but might go on a 2t teaser pretty good! Good winnin this season.

[MobFade]

Good to see you back. I'm interested to see where you're leaning Week 1.

[BigBoi]

Bank. What up brotha? Welcome back to the shit show. Lean Denver -1.5 and over 42.5 teased on opening night.

[2daBank]

Good to see you back. I'm interested to see where you're leaning Week 1.

Probly won't be much, couple totals maybe and looking for a team to tease Indy with..

[JayLA]

Glad to see ya back bank...was looking elsewhere for NFL discussion cause SBR is just random picks these days with no reasoning. Ive always enjoyed reading your insight in all sports


what do you think about Rams game? i'm just throwin shit at a wall to see if it sticks here but I think with how poor cardinals played in 2012 and with rams doing well down the stretch, how come cardinals only getting +4.5?

Rams have okay d, top league sack production but average rush defense. on offense they let most of it go in amendola, jackson not there anymore. I like jared cook at TE for them....but...

Palmer does wonders for Arizona i think, he's good in the pocket and doesn't get sacked that much. and zona still has playmakers outside. offensive line and their secondary cant get much worse but their defensive backfield looks promising this year i think.

was waiting for some line movement but nothing. looks 50/50 with regards to that public/sharp shit but you know that dont mean much.

i know it's only week 1 but i'm leaning Arizona +4.5, what you think?

good luck with nfl this year, homie!

[2daBank]

yea jay im with you, not sure if i play it but to me it zona or nothing in that gm..my brother in law told me other day he really liked the lambs as it seems everyone buying into the hype round here and all i could say is i wouldnt lay 4.5 with them..

i guess the reason im not jumping at playing zona is cause that oline still leaves a lot to be desired and rams certainly have the guys up front to cause them some problems, love lambs defense but im still not sold on the offense or bradford and zona no slouches on d themselves..kinda curious that the total has ticked up a little as to me i see 2 defenses that are ahead of the O's at this point but i guess there a solid chance both special teams either score or set up scores as both have dangerous return gms..probably decent chance defense sets up some scores as well with sack fumbles and some ball hawks roaming in both secondaries..personally i think we talking about a pretty competitive gm where 3-4 points decides it either way..my guess is palmer will take some hits in this gm and likely be under enough pressure he gets picked once or twice but same goes for bradfords cross eyed ass against some really good ball hawking corners..not to mention from what i saw this preseason which while i dont tend to put a ton of stock into but stl struggled in the red zone a ton last season and i havnt saw anything that leads me to believe it has gotten much better..

i like the moves the lambs made on offense and think they straight stole olgatree in the draft as that dude a freaking sideline to sideline beast, i agree cook could be big time and i think givens is in for a really good season but not a great matchup facing that stud Peterson..

tough gm but again if you put a gun to my head id take the points, but zona oline scares me and have to decide if bradford can get some things going with cook in the middle and austin all over the field in space...almost certainly a pass for me but wouldnt blame anyone for taking the points..

really just a wait and see for me with stl as i think they didnt show a whole lot offensively in the preseason and while im not sold im not ready to say they cant turn into a solid offensive club (even tho we all know im not a bradford guy this is by far his best chance to succeed)...

[2daBank]

Bank. What up brotha? Welcome back to the shit show. Lean Denver -1.5 and over 42.5 teased on opening night.

makes sense i suppose, that gm really doesnt interest me betting wise cause to me line seemed crazy to the point seems like they begging me to play balty which i never like...i mean with champ out, dumerville in balty, von suspended i think it pretty clear balty sporting the superior defense and that enough for me to think how the hell this line so high? i know it payton and balty offense maybe down but honestly i wouldnt be shocked if they won this gm.. think it a pass for me then next week can get back to the thu night 1st half unders that i love, doesnt really qualify this week as it not a short week but after that back to the auto thu 1st half under bets for the year

[JayLA]

yea jay im with you, not sure if i play it but to me it zona or nothing in that gm..my brother in law told me other day he really liked the lambs as it seems everyone buying into the hype round here and all i could say is i wouldnt lay 4.5 with them..

i guess the reason im not jumping at playing zona is cause that oline still leaves a lot to be desired and rams certainly have the guys up front to cause them some problems, love lambs defense but im still not sold on the offense or bradford and zona no slouches on d themselves..kinda curious that the total has ticked up a little as to me i see 2 defenses that are ahead of the O's at this point but i guess there a solid chance both special teams either score or set up scores as both have dangerous return gms..probably decent chance defense sets up some scores as well with sack fumbles and some ball hawks roaming in both secondaries..personally i think we talking about a pretty competitive gm where 3-4 points decides it either way..my guess is palmer will take some hits in this gm and likely be under enough pressure he gets picked once or twice but same goes for bradfords cross eyed ass against some really good ball hawking corners..not to mention from what i saw this preseason which while i dont tend to put a ton of stock into but stl struggled in the red zone a ton last season and i havnt saw anything that leads me to believe it has gotten much better..

i like the moves the lambs made on offense and think they straight stole olgatree in the draft as that dude a freaking sideline to sideline beast, i agree cook could be big time and i think givens is in for a really good season but not a great matchup facing that stud Peterson..

tough gm but again if you put a gun to my head id take the points, but zona oline scares me and have to decide if bradford can get some things going with cook in the middle and austin all over the field in space...almost certainly a pass for me but wouldnt blame anyone for taking the points..

really just a wait and see for me with stl as i think they didnt show a whole lot offensively in the preseason and while im not sold im not ready to say they cant turn into a solid offensive club (even tho we all know im not a bradford guy this is by far his best chance to succeed)...

bolded part leads me to my next lean, JAX/KC over 39...now 41

you think these defenses/sts r good enough to keep this one under?

[2daBank]

bolded part leads me to my next lean, JAX/KC over 39...now 41

you think these defenses/sts r good enough to keep this one under?

not sure if the defenses are good enough (honestly not sure as of yet what jags defense will be like, id imagine improved as their coach knows defense and kc d has a lot of talent despite their terrible play last yr) but at the same time think mjd will have some success on the ground and could chew some clock and while i like what kc is doing im not ready to trust their offense to put up numbers with smith dink and dunking down the field, not to mention if gabbert plays he the freaking checkdown king!..too many questions for me with both teams to get involved in that gm i think..in a perfect world jags would beat kc, dal stomps nyg then we get a fat line on the chiefs in week 2, lol.. cherry on top is philly looks good 1st 2 weeks and we get another nice line when kc goes to philly week 3. (ha)...guess that the thing about week 1 is more than anything im looking ahead to the upcoming weeks with only a few plays this week cause i am after all a degen...

honestly if you made me play it id lean under cause it hard for me to think these teams generate more than 5 tds maybe couple fgs which puts it at 41 so unless it ticked up little more def a pass for me. actually think 4tds and 3-4 fgs seems more likely.. way to close to where i would put the total for me to play so if you play the over i hope im wrong as hell!

[Speedy88]

I'm not a totals guy, but that under in Sea/Car looks good. I think it will be an ugly game. I wouldn't be surprised if both QB's struggle to move the ball up and down the field. I don't see Cam having much success through the air. He'll break a few runs here and there, but nothing much. And I think the Panthers front 7 will have success against Lynch and Seattle's Oline.

And agreed, if you're playing teasers this weekend, Indy is a must. Probably going to lay the -9.5 with Indy too, I see the Colts scoring at will. Colts should score 24+ points easily. I don't see the Raiders getting to 14.

[2daBank]

I'm not a totals guy, but that under in Sea/Car looks good. I think it will be an ugly game. I wouldn't be surprised if both QB's struggle to move the ball up and down the field. I don't see Cam having much success through the air. He'll break a few runs here and there, but nothing much. And I think the Panthers front 7 will have success against Lynch and Seattle's Oline.

And agreed, if you're playing teasers this weekend, Indy is a must. Probably going to lay the -9.5 with Indy too, I see the Colts scoring at will. Colts should score 24+ points easily. I don't see the Raiders getting to 14.

you know me, i love totals .. i guess fact sea kinda short up front is why it so high but i made this like 38-41 range, even if cam has time to throw he not gonna shred that secondary and would def be in car best interest for them to run and run some more with deangalo or cam. we know sea wants to run but panthers front 7 is really damn good so dont see a ton of success there. earlier this week was 1st time i looked at lines in over a month as i was on my normal break after the all star gm but this was def the one that jumped out at me the most (not always a good thing for me, lol)..sea coming east for the early gm certainly doesnt hurt the fact i agree this one has ugly written all over it to me..i dont think there any way it takes more than 23 to win this gm and have my doubts either team touches that total.. like panthers as well but not a huge fan of playing a side and total but certainly a chance i end up playing panthers ml and teasing them..

far as indy id have loved to have looked at lines earlier and grabbed that when it was -6.5 .. now i think it has to be straight teaser cause while i agree indy offense should do what they want, the line up to a number that prior in garbage time kinda has me worried of a backdoor cover, prob doubtful but certainly has crossed my mind a few times. generally if im teasing a dog i play the ml and tease but if im teasing the fav i dont bother with the spread as well..

good to see ya speedy. gl this yr..

[Speedy88]

you know me, i love totals .. i guess fact sea kinda short up front is why it so high but i made this like 38-41 range, even if cam has time to throw he not gonna shred that secondary and would def be in car best interest for them to run and run some more with deangalo or cam. we know sea wants to run but panthers front 7 is really damn good so dont see a ton of success there. earlier this week was 1st time i looked at lines in over a month as i was on my normal break after the all star gm but this was def the one that jumped out at me the most (not always a good thing for me, lol)..sea coming east for the early gm certainly doesnt hurt the fact i agree this one has ugly written all over it to me..i dont think there any way it takes more than 23 to win this gm and have my doubts either team touches that total.. like panthers as well but not a huge fan of playing a side and total but certainly a chance i end up playing panthers ml and teasing them..

far as indy id have loved to have looked at lines earlier and grabbed that when it was -6.5 .. now i think it has to be straight teaser cause while i agree indy offense should do what they want, the line up to a number that prior in garbage time kinda has me worried of a backdoor cover, prob doubtful but certainly has crossed my mind a few times. generally if im teasing a dog i play the ml and tease but if im teasing the fav i dont bother with the spread as well..

good to see ya speedy. gl this yr..

Yea good seeing you too Banker. Anything for tonight's game. I normally wouldn't have a dog in this game, but I almost have to bet it. Really haven't had much action since NBA finals, and I've been itchin to get a bet in. Kind of just ignored bases this year. I actually think Denver should take care of business fairly easy tonight.

[groovybrandone]

sup bank!

[2daBank]

Yea good seeing you too Banker. Anything for tonight's game. I normally wouldn't have a dog in this game, but I almost have to bet it. Really haven't had much action since NBA finals, and I've been itchin to get a bet in. Kind of just ignored bases this year. I actually think Denver should take care of business fairly easy tonight.

Yea I really don't know bout tonight, certainly understand playing den but man it hard for me to lay a Td when their d so short handed right now, of coarse Payton will prob do his thing, I guess if I had to I'd lean over but figure no sense in rushing things...Balt Tt ov 21 actually sounds ok..

[2daBank]

sup bank!

All good. How u been bro?

[2daBank]

Actually have it at Balty Tt ov 20.5 now, honestly think ravens can get to that number but more than happy to hear every1s thoughts ..

[Capybara]

Bank!!!!! Get 'em, kid! So happy to have the NFL back!!!

I haven't played anything yet tonight, but agree with you about that Ravens TT over. Should be very gettable.

[2daBank]

Just a small little half unit degen play cause speedy twisted my arm..

Balty Tt ov 20.5 -110

[Speedy88]

Good luck bro. I think your Balty TT OVER will hit. I think both teams should get score fairly easily. Just a small play on Denver -4.5 1H and teased Denver along with Indy in a 6 pt teaser.

[2daBank]

Good luck bro. I think your Balty TT OVER will hit. I think both teams should get score fairly easily. Just a small play on Denver -4.5 1H and teased Denver along with Indy in a 6 pt teaser.

I considered that tease but figure ill find something to go w Indy on Sunday.. Gl bro

[Capybara]

I considered that tease but figure ill find something to go w Indy on Sunday.. Gl bro

You're not gonna need the tease with Indy.

Good luck this season, bud! Let's start this fukker!!

[HOT WINGS]

GL Bank I am going too just wait until half time to make a play. Broncos 2H or TT most likely as tgey were a great 2H offensive team last year. That's when Peyton starts getting serious usually.

[2daBank]

GL Bank I am going too just wait until half time to make a play. Broncos 2H or TT most likely as tgey were a great 2H offensive team last year. That's when Peyton starts getting serious usually.

Hoping Balt puts up another Td and then ill most likely look to do something w den 2nd half as well..

[2daBank]

Damn den Tt ov 14.5 juiced to hell.. Not sure

[2daBank]

Den-6 ov 24 parlay. Just for .25

[2daBank]

Nice when a little degen action pays off..gonna try and actually keep a record this yr (we see how long that last, trust me nothing to do w what record may be just lazy..

2-0 +1.15u

[Dwil125]

Good luck bank, looking forward to your plays again this year

[2daBank]

time to start running thru the card with some general thoughts on the gms and a few plays (you know how we do it)..

i really like what is taking place in buf and the only reason im not super high on them this gm is cause the fact EJ missed so much time in preseason but once he up to gm speed him and spiller are gonna cause teams a lot more problems than i think folks realize. i may make a small play on buf but i think where i will be here is the over 51 as while i expect bellacheat defense to cause some problems for manuel and pats more than likely jump out i believe the bills wil be gm and open things up to try and stick around. in the end i have this something like 31-24/34-24 type of gm maybe to close on the spread but with the over i believe several ways they can exceed this number (even if pats do happen to blow buf out which i dont think will happen), this a strategy i apply often in ncaa fb when i like the chances of the big underdog to compete as for them to do so they are gonna have to put up points but in the event of a route still very likely the total gets surpassed..interesting stat of the week for this gm. home dogs of 8 or more are 24-3 ats the last 3 years! something to think about if you were considering the pats..

so the play for now...pats/bills over 51..


cin/chi is a straight pass for me. im very high on cincy as i think there a real chance they competing in the afc champ gm this yr but going to soldier field against that defense is no easy task. book still out on the tressman effect and while i think it will be a success id rather wait and see against a very good cincy d.

as posted on 1st post of thread sea/car under 45...

i love what going on in sea as much as the next guy but i rank panthers defense among the best in the nfc as well, i believe car front 7 will make life tough on the seahawks offense and sea defense is somewhat shorthanded up front, news one of those stud corners will possibly miss the gm as well and i think Cam can have a little more success than he did in this matchup last yr. to me this a gm that 20 could very well be enough to win it so getting more than 3 is very appealing .. throw in you got a west coast team playing early on the east coast and panthers may be one of the better plays this week ats, ml, and the under..

so looks like ill be going for the trifecta in this gm..panthers +3.5, panthers ml +155, and as mentioned under 45..

no way should rams be laying more than a fg in this gm, not so sure it will be low scoring only because i think we see several short fields set up by both defenses and possibly a score or two by very dynamic return gms from both sides. ultimately whether this played like the 20-17 gm 1 would normally expect or if we talking more along the lines of 27-24 with sp/d scoring or setting up scores this one will come down to the wire so 4.5 is a gift imo...

zona+4.5 vs my rams..really considering the over here as well, like i mentioned not because of the offenses as much as what kind of field position both sp/d are capable of giving their teams..

id like to bet jags especially if line gets to 4.5 and even better if gabbert was ruled out. not that im not high on kc but they have yet to do anything to warrant being this kind of road chalk to anyone. not convinced this offense is gonna be anything to brag about early on and mjd should have success and shorten this gm, gm has the makings of a ugly low scoring slugfest so getting 4 or more with the home team has some appeal.. under certainly worth some thought as well here.. maybe i have a little wishful thinking here but it would be sooo great if kc lost this gm and cowboys showed out on primetime as that would set up a monster play on the chiefs in week 2...

willing to discuss any gm ya'll are interested in. gotta get back to college fb and have a busy day today but will be around for little longer this morning then be back tonight to finish hammering out the card so feel free to post an thoughts, questions, plays, comments. any and everything as long as you have a educated opinion whether agreeing with me or not, or just a play you like id love to hear it as that what i try to make my threads all about much more so than just posting picks w/o any kind of explanation or discussion..

[a4u2fear]

Thoughts out of Buffalo is that they will be using quite a bit of read option against the patriots. Weather will be nice and Brady allllllways scores points on the Bills and with Gilmore and Byrd out, Brady should have no trouble scoring 27+ minimum. Going to tease this game and I think it's more likely Patriots cover 4 than Bills cover 16 because of the secondary issues. Probably looking at a 34-23 game or so. I'm teasing over and Pats. Brady averages about 30 ppg last few years and with Manuel and Spiller they will get their points too

[2daBank]

Thoughts out of Buffalo is that they will be using quite a bit of read option against the patriots. Weather will be nice and Brady allllllways scores points on the Bills and with Gilmore and Byrd out, Brady should have no trouble scoring 27+ minimum. Going to tease this game and I think it's more likely Patriots cover 4 than Bills cover 16 because of the secondary issues. Probably looking at a 34-23 game or so. I'm teasing over and Pats. Brady averages about 30 ppg last few years and with Manuel and Spiller they will get their points too

you guys are gonna be a really fun team, i tried so hard to get spiller in one of my fantasy leagues but kept getting stuck with a pick where he was gone before i could grab him..those 2 are gonna be a nightmare paired up with the zone read and uptempo offense ...teaser certainly makes sense i just hate not getting under 3 when i tease but id agree pats-4 is prob safer than bills+16, might not be saying that next time they meet later in the year if buf takes the steps i expect them to but bellacheat vs a rookie making his 1st start prob means while i think EJ will make some plays he also likely to make some mistakes and yea pats should run all over them..

[MobFade]

CIN for me went from a gimme to disconcerting with Whitworth listed as doubtful.

Jags I just don't see. I like Gabbert alright if he had any weapons, but especially to start I think he's devoid of that. Thumb is a concern but I guess a wash as Henne won't be any worse. I don't think MJD runs well coming off so much time on the sideline and against a solid front 7 highlighted by that LB corps. What it comes down to for me is that KC got better this off-season, JAX did not ... enough so in my mind to lay 3-135 in what should be a pretty quiet JAX stadium.

Would like to hear your thoughts on ATL and HOU. To me they feel like two teams just outside of that 'elite' category that feel very underrated to me. SD is a bottom 5 team in my mind, and I don't think NO is a Top 10 team this year so these plays felt like slam dunks.

Also you mentioned liking BUF and KC ... what other teams you like to improve a few games and go over their season win totals?

[rake922]

http://i.imgur.com/cnEGHYQ.jpg

[2daBank]

CIN for me went from a gimme to disconcerting with Whitworth listed as doubtful.

Jags I just don't see. I like Gabbert alright if he had any weapons, but especially to start I think he's devoid of that. Thumb is a concern but I guess a wash as Henne won't be any worse. I don't think MJD runs well coming off so much time on the sideline and against a solid front 7 highlighted by that LB corps. What it comes down to for me is that KC got better this off-season, JAX did not ... enough so in my mind to lay 3-135 in what should be a pretty quiet JAX stadium.

Would like to hear your thoughts on ATL and HOU. To me they feel like two teams just outside of that 'elite' category that feel very underrated to me. SD is a bottom 5 team in my mind, and I don't think NO is a Top 10 team this year so these plays felt like slam dunks.

Also you mentioned liking BUF and KC ... what other teams you like to improve a few games and go over their season win totals?

i generally dont look at season win totals as i cant stomach tying up money on plays that dont have big odds...i played 1 future in july i saw value in . cincy to win sb i thought had really good value and would set up nicely to hedge out if they can get over the hump and win a playoff gm. i think browns will be improved.. zona will prob win 7-8 gms.

gabbert is total trash and im hoping he cant go cause then i will be on jags w henne no doubt. i disagree jags are not improving, mjd back and healthy and not sure what makes you think he will be any less ready than charles? they upgraded their oline and brought in a new coach who i think will have this team playing hard.. dont get me wrong i think kc competes for a playoff spot but they have done nothing to warrant being 4 point road favs this early imo.. not completely sure i play it but it jags or nothing and i really hope kc loses as that will set up a huge bet on them in week 2...

i think hou will struggle to score points but their d will more than likely lay a beat down on sd which is why i lean under..far as atl yea they a good team and have a offense with more weapons than just about anyone. still not sold on their defense and im not playing against the saints at home only getting 3 points..peyton returning will have a impact as despite all the talk of saints passing gm when he calling plays he will use the run gm to keep his defense off the field and basically think saints will get whatever they want off falcons defense.. have in my mind there a strong possibility that i bet the 1st half under then if things go as planned come back and hit the over in the 2nd half at hopefully a better number than where it sits now...

ill have plenty more time to discuss and finish my card later on bout to go bowling with the wifey and some friends, pretty excited as i havnt really bowled since before i went to prison so we talking like 8 years ago, used to be a pretty damn good bowler curious if i can go out and roll a 600 series after all these years! prob not but hopefully i can at least bust out with one gm in the mid 200s..