[PhillyFlyers]

How many of you think that Philadelphia just HAS to be a winning play this week? They are so difficult to read as a team. They are no longer blitzing and seem to be sitting in zone 80% of the plays run. They will continue to get picked apart on defense if they don't bring more pressure. What do you think the chances are that the Eagles defense can get enough penetration and pressure on Washington to force quick throws and crete turnovers?

Hey John, just wanted to check in with you. The Eagles have serious problems on defense beginning with their choice of defensive coordinator. Juan Castillo was their offensive line coach before Reid picked him to be the defensive coordinator this season.

How an offensive line coach with no coordinating experience whatsoever is somehow qualified to be a defensive coordinator is beyond me. It gets better. They are currently missing their best run stopper, Antonio Dixon, their best pass rusher, Trent Cole, and are playing the wide 9 defense that has so far proven to be an absolute failure with no intention of changing the scheme.


Nnamdi Asomugha has been burnt more often this season so far than all of his previous seasons with the Raiders combined. That's because they are misusing him by playing in a zone defense most of the time. Nnamdi is a man to man cover corner. That's what he does. Playing in the wrong scheme has exposed him. It's not just him either. Rodgers-Cromartie and Asante Samuel have been just as bad. Their corners are not covering.


On the offensive side of the ball, their offensive line is just plain bad. Vick has taken more abuse this season so far than he gave his dogs. On every snap he's one play away from being knocked out of the game or for the season.

To conclude, I fully expect Washington to run the ball down the Eagles throat tomorrow, with Hightower rushing for 2 possibly 3 touchdowns.

It's going to be one hell of a week for eagles fans coming up.

[minnis2winnis]

Hey John, just wanted to check in with you. The Eagles have serious problems on defense beginning with their choice of defensive coordinator. Juan Castillo was their offensive line coach before Reid picked him to be the defensive coordinator this season. How an offensive line coach with no coordinating experience whatsoever is somehow qualified to be a defensive coordinator is beyond me. It gets better. They are currently missing their best run stopper, Antonio Dixon, their best pass rusher, Trent Cole, and are playing the wide 9 defense that has so far proven to be an absolute failure with no intention of changing the scheme. Nnamdi Asomugha has been burnt more often this season so far than all of his previous seasons with the Raiders combined. That's because they are misusing him by playing in a zone defense most of the time. Nnamdi is a man to man cover corner. That's what he does. Playing in the wrong scheme has exposed him. It's not just him either. Rodgers-Cromartie and Asante Samuel have been just as bad. Their corners are not covering. On the offensive side of the ball, their offensive line is just plain bad. Vick has taken more abuse this season so far than he gave his dogs. On every snap he's one play away from being knocked out of the game or for the season. To conclude, I fully expect Washington to runt he ball down the Eagles throat tomorrow, with Hightower rushing for 2 possibly 3 touchdowns. It's going to be one hell of a week for eagles fans coming up.

Ballsy analysis, but I like it. I'm with you on this one, nice post.

[tommyminh]

Geno's cheese steaks are the BEST! If any of you out there ever go to Philadelphia, PA you MUST and I mean MUST get a cheese steak there before seeing anything else. The Liberty Bell will be a better tourist stop after a fantastic meal at Genos!

i use to get that chees steak every night for my wife cause i live 5 minute away from geno's park.

[John Ryan]

Ballsy analysis, but I like it. I'm with you on this one, nice post.

No doubt I fully agree with both of you. Analysis forthcoming

[John Ryan]

5* Washington Redskins. Someday the Eagles will cover the spread and win a game, but no TEAm is ever DUE to win a game when you are investing your money into a bet. Simply because the Eagles have lost four straight and four straight to the spread is NO reason to bet them and think they are DUE. Should they win tomorrow then it will come across in hindsight as they were just DUE to win. Do not fall into that trap ever. Now, the Eagles are starting to make history though; not good history though if you are betting on the, There have been just nine situations where a team has lost four straight games and failed to cover and were installed as favorites in all four games since 1980. In 31 years, The 'Dream Team' is one of just NINE situations. Now, this DUE factor is fallacy noting that teams are just 1-8 ATS and 3-6 SU coming off four straight losses and all installed as favorites since 1980.

The public is all over the Eagles and I truly believe that it all because of this DUE factor as I have coined it. Note, that of the books I monitor 79% of all best on this game are on the Eagles and this is an automatic RED flag in my experience for those wanting to bet the Eagles. Washington is also 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half since 1992. Eagles have confidence and leadership issues on a large scale and now take to the road to play a defense that has held opponents to either their season low or second lowest output this season.

More tonight. Appreciate any thoughts you may have counter to this or in support of the Redskins.

[4TH AND STUPID]

I like the Giants this weekend, as much as they pooped one against the Seahawks, believe it or not Giants are still in a VERY good spot. The "dream team" is doing real bad with poop record and going against the redskins while the cowboys are playing away against the patriots, a win here by the giants against a very poor defensive team, and I reiterate that, they do have extremely poor defense both against the run and the pass. Yeah they have turn overs and chances are Eli will turn it over, the Bills still can't stop the Giants offense with their defense. Giants playing at home as well. A win on Sunday can still put the Giants in a great spot and tied for first place on NFC east if things go their way.. If Redskins lose and so does the cowboys..

Believe it or not, with Giants defense having just about the league worst in injury, they are still hanging in there and are still finding weapons on their offense. Victor Cruz is on fire, and nicks will be nicks. Jake Ballard have been seeing endzones.. Giants are just mustering what they can before heading into their bye week. They had tough losses but, after everything still being 3-2 this week puts them in a great spot.

Bills have one dementional offense sorry, but if you take out Fred Jackson, Bills are NOTHING. Literally nothing, no open passes for Steve Johnson. Giants are natural Pass Defense team, althoug they haven't been playing good, because of their natural pass defense, it allows them to stack the box against Jackson..

I will lay the 3 points this weekend with the Giants.

the bills are one dimensional?

the giants have weapons on offense? what are these weapons you speak of? victor cruz and eli manning?




the giants are shit. if you truly think the giants are a better football team than the bills you are lost in the sea of degenerateness.

[Monitor-Tan]

Bills entire offense is around Fred Jackson, all their wide receivers become open because of fred jackson. Please look at who the Bills have played.. Not a single team they played that has natural pass defensive team.. The one good pass defense team is the Bengals.. And look they lost.. It's no different situation here..

I'd much rather take Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Crus, Bradshaw, and Jacobs

then

Jackson, Steven Johnson, and Nelson..


FYI Merriweather is also out for the game.. That's not going to help them at all..

How can you call a team shit with a winning record who is devastated by injury...

Bills are only 1 game above Giants playing away...

The one team that has similar defense Bills played lost away...

Sorry but given all that, I'd much rather lay the -3 with the Giants at home..

Best of luck to you..

[John Ryan]

Bills entire offense is around Fred Jackson, all their wide receivers become open because of fred jackson. Please look at who the Bills have played.. Not a single team they played that has natural pass defensive team.. The one good pass defense team is the Bengals.. And look they lost.. It's no different situation here..

I'd much rather take Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Crus, Bradshaw, and Jacobs

then

Jackson, Steven Johnson, and Nelson..


FYI Merriweather is also out for the game.. That's not going to help them at all..

How can you call a team shit with a winning record who is devastated by injury...

Bills are only 1 game above Giants playing away...

The one team that has similar defense Bills played lost away...

Sorry but given all that, I'd much rather lay the -3 with the Giants at home..

Best of luck to you..

I like your ideas. Buffalo is inexperienced at 'winning' and they are playing a team that you would expect to have a huge chip on their shoulders after losing at home to Seattle last week.

[bobbyk1133]

are playing the wide 9 defense that has so far proven to be an absolute failure with no intention of changing the scheme. On the offensive side of the ball, their offensive line is just plain bad. Vick has taken more abuse this season so far than he gave his dogs. On every snap he's one play away from being knocked out of the game or for the season. To conclude, I fully expect Washington to run the ball down the Eagles throat tomorrow, with Hightower rushing for 2 possibly 3 touchdowns. It's going to be one hell of a week for eagles fans coming up.

Agreed with all you said except the quoted part. The only reason the wide-9 scheme is failing is because of the linebackers behind them. They've done their job in terms of getting to the QB, but if the linebackers can't get off blocks or know what gaps to consistently be in then it's a no-brainer that PHI will get gashed in the run game. As you pointed out losing Dixon didn't help, but he wasn't playing well even when he was in there.

Also if you look at the numbers the O-line hasn't played as bad as advertised. This is getting way too much hype from the media and the stats just don't support it. Vick is just as much to blame for the pressure because he holds the ball too long.

Lastly, it will be Torian who is burning the D for a big day, not Hightower.

The public is all over the Eagles and I truly believe that it all because of this DUE factor as I have coined it.

There's a ton of sharp $$ on PHI this week too, maybe moreso than the public.

[John Ryan]

Agreed with all you said except the quoted part. The only reason the wide-9 scheme is failing is because of the linebackers behind them. They've done their job in terms of getting to the QB, but if the linebackers can't get off blocks or know what gaps to consistently be in then it's a no-brainer that PHI will get gashed in the run game. As you pointed out losing Dixon didn't help, but he wasn't playing well even when he was in there.

Also if you look at the numbers the O-line hasn't played as bad as advertised. This is getting way too much hype from the media and the stats just don't support it. Vick is just as much to blame for the pressure because he holds the ball too long.

Lastly, it will be Torian who is burning the D for a big day, not Hightower.



There's a ton of sharp $$ on PHI this week too, maybe moreso than the public.

Just curious how you know it is the smart money?

[Don Giovanni]

John, I have to say that this forum is very enjoyable to read! Your analysis and the general conversation is thought provoking, insightful, and helpful for novices like me. Thank you!

[bobbyk1133]

Just curious how you know it is the smart money?

Sharp $$ controls the market and the line movement is consistent with all the available info regarding sharp action this week.

[John Ryan]

John, I have to say that this forum is very enjoyable to read! Your analysis and the general conversation is thought provoking, insightful, and helpful for novices like me. Thank you!

Thanks, but everyone learns here and that has been the best part of all. so, don't cut yourself short. There are plenty of 'gamblers' who think they are omnipotent beings and don't need any help.. well, not to sound corny, but everyone of us need people to count on. You can't do anything in this life with any degree of success in isolation. Right?

[spike1519]

Thanks, but everyone learns here and that has been the best part of all. so, don't cut yourself short. There are plenty of 'gamblers' who think they are omnipotent beings and don't need any help.. well, not to sound corny, but everyone of us need people to count on. You can't do anything in this life with any degree of success in isolation. Right?

that is like the theme song to my life. I believe in always learning from other's alway's having an open mind to new ideas. This has served me very well in horse handicapping as well in just life in general. You can live an entire lifetime and never accrue (spelling?) the knowledge 2 or more together can learn combined. I get really bored when I see people just making fun of other's picks and cutting them down when they could post something useful and maybe just open the door to a conversation or an angle no one has delved into possibly making us all money in the long run. I personally don't have the phillie game on my card this week (yet lol) but I think John's analysis is spot on. The electronic boards on roullette tables showing how many red's or blacks have come up in a row has taken the game to new height's of profit for the casino's if there's a hundred red's in a row it has absolutely no relevence to the outcome of the next spin! this may not be the best example however just the thought of something being "DUE" is a red flag and bound to be the start of something bad (in my experience) where Gambling is concerned. Research, Knowledge, and bouncing ideas around is a great recipe for success. Knocking ideas, being closed minded and cutting down other's ideas really pale's in comparison In my opinion....spike

[spike1519]

Eagles are 25th against the run Wash is 13th in generating run games at home. Eagles are 3-8 going into bye week in I think 11 seasons. Phillies season is really on the line so motivation is there but vick seem's to fold under big pressure situation's. Eagles within there division play is 3-7. Eagles and Washinton have gone over 8 of 9 last times eagles travel to Washington. I think vick has a perpensity to fold and blame minor injury's and look for excuses he is just not a big boy when it comes to getting hit. Eagles are just 2-8 when it comes to outgaining there opponent. I just can't help but think this is another Eagle game where vick show's promise put's up number's and finds a way to lose again blaming it on offensive line ( which doesn't need that much improvement) or a hit he takes during the game. Some horses can't stand to be behind other horses other ones love to run right behind and run 2nd place there whole career. Vick is comfortable coming in second and finding excuses. I'd take the Redskins even with injury's at home on vick's inability to get the job done when there's alot of pressure on him alone!

[Monitor-Tan]

I think the biggest fundamental of this whole Washington vs Eagles is that Redskins has always been that floor mat team on the East.. When's the last time we can all honestly say redskins actually made an impact.. And on the other side you have the eagles.. the playoff team.. The team that has consistantly went to the playoffs and make impacts... Sometimes I think you need to take a step back and see what you have in front of you MINUS the team names... Just look at it as team A and team B and really look at it from that stand point..

[ItemB]

Are the Redskins a play then? I was actually leaning on making the Redskins +3 a play I know the eagles can put up points and yards. But Washington's run attack will do very good against the Eagles line backing core and keep the ball away from Vick and the offense.

[spike1519]

O.K so I'm able to add this play so far its.
5 units Cincinnati -7 -107 over Indianapolis
5 units Dallas +7 -125 over New England
2 units dallas wins outright + 245! over New England ( I have to take this as an if bet on the dallas +7 because money management and feel there's probably a better way to play this for guy's in my situation but don't know the bet's yet?) feel this is a great value bet that's not out of reach) And still offer's profit if dallas cover's spread.
5 units redskins +3 over phillies
3 units on Tampa bay + 4 1/2 saw this tues morning and was told it's a trap but I see now it has gained some respect.
Be advised, My units are not quite one hundred dollars yet as I only brought 1/3 of my horse Handicapping money from this season into this sport's betting thing which is new to me ( + I have very strick mny mngmt techniques) so I'm not quite there yet money mngmt wise. or knowledge wise, (alway's open to suggestions or advise) however I've been able to increase my bet's for both week's I've been involved. And as alway's still winning the ponies in Washington state at Emerald downs which I have followed for 15 years. John rules here but Beyer's still rule's the track lol B.O.L to all this week!!!!!!!! spike ( b.t.w have already covered my money taken to bet sport's at the track) thnx john your the best I've seen and alway's appreciative for it!!!!!

[SportsMushroom]

I like how this is a thread john ryan created to post his picks, yet every leech sees fit to post their picks in here like its their own god damn thread to take advantage of the high number of views

[16johnnymac]

I agree if you want to post your plays make your own dam thread we could care less about your plays

[PickMeAwinner]

I agree if you want to post your plays make your own dam thread we could care less about your plays

I dont find anything wrong with posting plays. Im pretty sure John doesn't mind either. This is Johns thread but we all are trying to work together and become a better cappers!
STL +14
Steelers -12.5
49ers +4
Cinci -6.5
Bill$ +4
OAK -6.5
PATS -6

These are my picks for today,
I need help picking the best 3 so I can Parlay, any ideas?

[ufcmma36]

Im banking on St.Louis

[John Ryan]

Im banking on St.Louis

Green Bay has never in the history of their franchise covered a spread of 14 or more points.

[John Ryan]

I dont find anything wrong with posting plays. Im pretty sure John doesn't mind either. This is Johns thread but we all are trying to work together and become a better cappers!
STL +14
Steelers -12.5
49ers +4
Cinci -6.5
Bill$ +4
OAK -6.5
PATS -6

These are my picks for today,
I need help picking the best 3 so I can Parlay, any ideas?

No offense, but there are some on this list I have no opinion. If i had to pick three I would take the 49ers, STL, and Buffalo. Hope this helps.

[John Ryan]

I like how this is a thread john ryan created to post his picks, yet every leech sees fit to post their picks in here like its their own god damn thread to take advantage of the high number of views

Well, you have a great point. I certainly don't mind answering questions and adding to ongoing football debates about games and teams. Listing games you like has to be in a question format. Thanks

[soonerstud7804]

Dude post all the plays you want... all the info sharing does nothing but gather a consensus for me. so POST ON BROTHA

[John Ryan]

I think the biggest fundamental of this whole Washington vs Eagles is that Redskins has always been that floor mat team on the East.. When's the last time we can all honestly say redskins actually made an impact.. And on the other side you have the eagles.. the playoff team.. The team that has consistantly went to the playoffs and make impacts... Sometimes I think you need to take a step back and see what you have in front of you MINUS the team names... Just look at it as team A and team B and really look at it from that stand point..

Excellent points. very good. Washington has held all opponents to their season low or second season low in total offensive output. Now, you have Vick, who i believe has had at least one turnover in 14 straight games. Read above about my DUE factor and the complete fallacy that betting DUES is a sure fire way to lose money over the long-term.

[Metanoia]

Hi Jonh thanks for your thread, i've been reading it and learning a lot, it's the first season that i'm betting Football. I only find Dallas +6 do you think it's worth it anyway?

Thanks again

[John Ryan]

Hi Jonh thanks for your thread, i've been reading it and learning a lot, it's the first season that i'm betting Football. I only find Dallas +6 do you think it's worth it anyway?

Thanks again

Yes, Dallas plus 6 is ok.

[Mully85]

John, I was going through your posts, and liked them all. But I didn't pick up any OFFICIAL PICKS. Could somebody please re-post if I missed them? Thank You!

[John Ryan]

OK. Let's recap the VALID plays for todays action:
5* Washington +3 -110 over Philadelphia
5* Dallas +7 -115 over New England
2.5* amount using Dallas and ML at +230
5* Bengals -6 -110 over the Colts

As for the Bucs, I still think it is a trap, but I want to see how the two early games go. Sometimes I have found that you can get a feel for the type of day it will evolve into by watching the 1:00 games. Will post at 3:30 for the Bucs update, BUT I will be online the entire afternoon. I may be away from the computer for periods of time, but I will try to address all questions/debates possible.

[Mully85]

OK. Let's recap the VALID plays for todays action: 5* Washington +3 -110 over Philadelphia 5* Dallas +7 -115 over New England 2.5* amount using Dallas and ML at +230 5* Bengals -6 -110 over the Colts As for the Bucs, I still think it is a trap, but I want to see how the two early games go. Sometimes I have found that you can get a feel for the type of day it will evolve into by watching the 1:00 games. Will post at 3:30 for the Bucs update, BUT I will be online the entire afternoon. I may be away from the computer for periods of time, but I will try to address all questions/debates possible.

You are the man! Thanks John!!!!

[ItemB]

Thanks for the picks John. Good Luck to all today.
John you got any thoughts you wouldn't mind sharing on the 49ers(now +5.5)vs the Lions?

[5mike5]

i just really want to thank JOHN for all the analysis and making alot of people on here money....and this is his picks forum so keeping the regular poster from throwing his picks in here would be a plus, this is johns thread and the # of views this gets, well theres a reason for that, HE is wining us $$$$....so again thank you john, we REALLY appreciate a great cappers views and getting questions anwsered...he really doesnt have to anwser all our Qs in the timelyand frequent way he does on most anything and i for one think its extremely helpful and a HUGE advantage having john here for OUR benefit..keep it john!!!

[John Ryan]

Thanks for the picks John. Good Luck to all today.
John you got any thoughts you wouldn't mind sharing on the 49ers(now +5.5)vs the Lions?

I don't have any... 49ers if I had to pick. and if they cover they win