1. 01-17-24 08:27 AM #36
    usma1992
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    Won both bets... Single bets 22-12... Parlay hit nicely... lots of bets tonight... I will start NBA again... I stopped to upgrade it. Give me until this weekend to upgrade and reboot it. Dave

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    7:00 PM IUPUI 60 IUPU-FT WAYNE 90 150 -17 151.5 Parlay ML Under
    7:00 PM THE CITADEL 65 UNC-GREENSBORO 82 146 -11 133.0 Parlay ML and H- Too Close
    8:00 PM MURRAY ST 66 IL-CHICAGO 73 139 -1 138.5 Home Minus Too Close
    8:00 PM W VIRGINIA 58 OKLAHOMA 80 138 -12.5 144.0 Parlay ML Too Close
    9:00 PM PROVIDENCE 81 DEPAUL 62 143 9.5 139.0 Away Minus Too Close
    9:00 PM AUBURN 81 VANDERBILT 61 142 11 148.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    9:00 PM TEXAS TECH 55 HOUSTON 78 133 -12.5 129.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    9:00 PM LOUISVILLE 61 N CAROLINA 88 148 -21 155.0 Parlay ML Too Close
    10:00 PM USC 68 ARIZONA 93 161 -19 159.0 Parlay ML Too Close
    7:00 PM BUCKNELL 62 BOSTON U 72 135 -4.5 136.5 Home Minus Too Close
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  2. 01-17-24 01:19 PM #37
    usma1992
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    Big Night tonight. Won the ML parlay and the single bet last night. Only tracking singles 22-12. Lots of bets...

    Dave
    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    7:00 PM IUPUI 60 IUPU-FT WAYNE 90 150 -17 151.5 Parlay ML Under
    7:00 PM THE CITADEL 65 UNC-GREENSBORO 82 146 -11 133.0 Parlay ML and H- Too Close
    8:00 PM MURRAY ST 66 IL-CHICAGO 73 139 -1 138.5 Home Minus Too Close
    8:00 PM W VIRGINIA 58 OKLAHOMA 80 138 -12.5 144.0 Parlay ML Too Close
    9:00 PM PROVIDENCE 81 DEPAUL 62 143 9.5 139.0 Away Minus Too Close
    9:00 PM AUBURN 81 VANDERBILT 61 142 11 148.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    9:00 PM TEXAS TECH 55 HOUSTON 78 133 -12.5 129.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    9:00 PM LOUISVILLE 61 N CAROLINA 88 148 -21 155.0 Parlay ML Too Close
    10:00 PM USC 68 ARIZONA 93 161 -19 159.0 Parlay ML Too Close
    7:00 PM BUCKNELL 62 BOSTON U 72 135 -4.5 136.5 Home Minus Too Close
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  3. 01-17-24 01:20 PM #38
    usma1992
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    Making a mistake... Duh Second page.

    Dave
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  4. 01-18-24 01:01 PM #39
    usma1992
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    Took a hit yesterday... 1-4 on bets... watched Boston... they couldn't hit anything. The ML Parlay bets hit all but one. I went 9-1 on parlay bets using a round robin and lost money. It really upset me... but nonetheless. I think last night was weird. I made some extremely minor adjustments to the model. I have been able to address the Monmouth over from a week ago. I also addressed two bets from last night. The model keeps getting stronger. 23-16 now. Hoping for a better next couple of days.

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    7:00 PM FLA INTERNATIONAL 64 LIBERTY 83 147 -13.5 141.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    8:00 PM LA-MONROE 59 JAMES MADISON 88 147 -21 145.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    9:00 PM UTAH VALLEY ST 59 GRAND CANYON 77 136 -13 140.0 Parlay ML Too Close
    10:00 PM SANTA CLARA 82 PACIFIC 64 146 11 148.0 Parlay ML Too Close
    11:00 PM LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT 61 SAN FRANCISCO 77 138 -10.5 140.5 Parlay ML and H- Too Close
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  5. 01-19-24 07:43 AM #40
    usma1992
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    Great night... 5 game ML parlay hit and my one spread bet hit. 24-16. I'll post my picks later today... I was able to tweak the model and eliminate some losing bets. With tweaks 24-13 but I know that is after the fact. However, I am building a model for the future. I had two NBA games picked that I didn't post. Split on spreads but both ML picks won. So in truth... had I been allowed to bet Virginia teams. I would have had a 7 game ML parlay. Feels like it is working.

    Dave
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  6. 01-19-24 10:47 AM #41
    usma1992
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    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    6:30 PM GEORGETOWN 64 XAVIER 81 146 -13 149.0 Parlay ML Too Close
    7:00 PM QUINNIPIAC 81 SIENA 64 146 5 148.0 Away Minus Too Close
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  7. 01-19-24 01:24 PM #42
    usma1992
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    NBA thread is up and going for those that want my picks... enjoy. Big day tomorrow.

    Dave
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  8. 01-19-24 03:20 PM #43
    usma1992
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    Current Model Statistics with upgrades... this does include data up until the 17th I believe. Maybe, the 16th.

    Overs: 12-1 <1% of games... 92%
    Unders: 33-12 2% of games... 73%
    Away-: 14-2 <1% of games... 87%
    Home-: 53-22 3% of games...71%
    Away+: 22-10 1% of games...69%
    Home+: 19-5 1% of games... 79%

    These figures include back tested algorithms and a 16 day trial from Jan 2nd. I have posted all my picks. I have made a few extremely small tweaks.

    Tonight, there is an Away- which is picked less than 1% of the time. I will continue to develop. Several have sent me emails or posted on the thread. I appreciate the encouragement. It is a lot of work but getting easier by the day. I am cautiously optimistic. Tomorrow is a big day again. I love Saturdays enjoy...

    Dave
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  9. 01-20-24 05:40 AM #44
    usma1992
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    2-0 on an escape on Xavier ML.. but they normally would have won by more than 1. At one point GTown was hitting 65%+ from the three. The Away- Quinnipiac... crushed it. In truth, it wasn't close and I started NBA thread with LA Lakers over bet... which won.

    Any response is cool... again even haters keep me going.a little.

    Dave
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    Last edited by usma1992; 01-20-24 at 06:51 AM.
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  10. 01-20-24 07:23 AM #45
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Looks like you're doing well. Not really a critique but I'll make one point:

    *You're including these Heavy M/L favs in parlays.

    Consider how wide those straddles are. In my opinion, the Moneyline Fav/Dog on the hi-spread games is un-bettable. They've pushed those straddles to the moon and made those play less attractive.
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  11. 01-20-24 07:27 AM #46
    kilrathi
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    I like the idea of your system but I am too afraid of following those ML parlay picks.
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  12. 01-20-24 08:46 AM #47
    usma1992
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    Lots of ML Parlays... I haven't figured out how to work them yet...
    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    12:00 PM LOUISVILLE 65 WAKE FOREST 84 148 -14.5 151.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    2:00 PM YALE 81 DARTMOUTH 59 140 12.5 133.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    2:00 PM UCF 53 HOUSTON 77 130 -16.5 128.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    3:30 PM VANDERBILT 60 MISSISSIPPI ST 77 137 -13 138.0 Parlay ML Under
    4:00 PM UCLA 61 ARIZONA 87 148 -17.5 143.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    4:00 PM E MICHIGAN 65 OHIO U 82 147 -12.5 145.0 Parlay ML Too Close
    4:00 PM NEW MEXICO 80 AIR FORCE 62 142 10.5 143.0 Parlay ML Too Close
    4:00 PM DEPAUL 64 BUTLER 87 151 -16 148.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    4:00 PM YOUNGSTOWN ST 88 DETROIT 63 151 10.00 146.0 Away Minus Too Close
    4:00 PM FRESNO ST 63 UTAH ST 82 145 -14.00 143.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    6:00 PM BYU 79 TEXAS TECH 70 149 -2.00 145.0 Away Plus Too Close
    6:00 PM MARSHALL 67 JAMES MADISON 88 156 -11.50 160.0 Parlay ML and H- Too Close
    6:00 PM MERCER 68 SAMFORD 88 156 -13.50 154.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    6:00 PM GEORGIA 69 KENTUCKY 87 156 -14.00 162.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    7:00 PM PORTLAND 68 SANTA CLARA 83 151 -11.00 153.0 Parlay ML Too Close
    7:00 PM SAM HOUSTON ST 62 LIBERTY 79 141 -9.50 138.0 Home Minus Too Close
    4:30 PM NICHOLLS ST 64 TEXAS A&M CC 78 142 -6.00 146.0 Home Minus Too Close
    4:30 PM TEXAS A&M CC 73 SE LOUISIANA 66 139 -5.00 130.5 Away Plus Too Close
    6:00 PM MCNEESE ST 84 INCARNATE WORD 64 148 12.50 145.5 Parlay ML Too Close
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  13. 01-20-24 08:47 AM #48
    usma1992
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    My bet of the day is Youngstown Minus... forget that... I want the Away+ bets... too.

    The Teach
    Last edited by usma1992; 01-20-24 at 08:50 AM.
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  14. 01-20-24 09:11 AM #49
    usma1992
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    My suggestion on betting is to Parlay ML all together in a round robin... but only the upper two levels. If there are 9 games... bet 9 and 8 round robins. The single bets... bet them as usual but only 3% of your bankroll.

    Dave
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  15. 01-20-24 11:14 AM #50
    prolexus
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    Thank you for sharing.

    On today's posted chart, the one (1) UNDER appears to be the closest margin between the Vegas O/U and Predicted Total. Yet, all the others are listed as "too close". May you be able to provide a little more explanation on how the Total Plays are predicted as one may expect to look for a larger "delta" between the prediction and posted Vegas Line.

    cheers.
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  16. 01-21-24 08:44 AM #51
    usma1992
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    Prolexus, Obviously, you are European which is not a bad thing. Very few say cheers in the US. To answer you question, my model goes beyond just the predicted score. Based on past data.... I look where my model is strong and where it was weak... and compare it to vegas and where they were strong or weak.

    I create additional filters that eliminate games.

    Btw... I went 14-0 ML.. and 5-1 on rest of the games in college basketball..19-1 yesterday... and yes the picks are posted. Even though Texas A&M Commerce covered.... I'm taking zero correct for that win..

    Dave
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    Last edited by usma1992; 01-21-24 at 08:52 AM.
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  17. 01-21-24 08:50 AM #52
    usma1992
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    Chucky the Goat... Your opinions are definitely.. valid ... I need to look into the spread aspect... On a side note... are you allowed to use THE GOAT ... are you predetermining that you are the best ever... I think someone or actually the many someones only get to give you that title. Just teasing you but ... being honest too. Did you see I went 19-1 yesterday? Most ML but still.

    Dave
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    Last edited by usma1992; 01-22-24 at 11:46 AM.
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  18. 01-21-24 09:04 AM #53
    usma1992
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    Crushed it yesterday... 14-0.. ML... 5-1 Spread and Overs... I did have a computer glitch... The site I used changed names... so I had Texas A&M CC... the same as Texas A&M Commerce... a computer modeling... continual problem. Both won... but I can only take credit for one of them.

    30-17 so far.. I guess...

    The Teach
    AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    SIENA 58 MARIST 73 132 -6.5 132.0 Home Minus Too Close
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  19. 01-22-24 10:30 AM #54
    usma1992
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    What I find interesting about the ML bets is that it took many... and they all won. The big upset of the day was Duke Pitt so.... I reexamined that bet to try and figure out why the system did not pick it. It had Duke winning by only 11... so it got tossed out.

    I need to the mathematical calculations on what price is worth placing bets. The other day I took UNC and Arizona ML... both were -20 but it still yielded 7%. That's better than Wall Street.

    Every college game tonight came in too Close on both sides. No bets tonight on College. 30-18.

    Dave
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  20. 01-22-24 10:56 AM #55
    usma1992
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    I still can't get over going 19-1 on Saturday even with ML bets.

    Dave
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  21. 01-23-24 11:44 AM #56
    usma1992
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    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    7:00 PM DUKE 86 LOUISVILLE 67 152 14 150.0 Parlay ML Too Close


    Only One bet tonight.
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  22. 01-24-24 01:06 PM #57
    usma1992
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    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    7:00 PM MURRAY ST 65 BRADLEY 78 144 -7.5 140.0 Home Minus Too Close
    7:00 PM JAMES MADISON 86 OLD DOMINION 70 156 8 155.0 Away Minus Too Close
    8:00 PM FLA ATLANTIC 87 RICE 70 157 12 153.0 Parlay ML and A- Too Close
    9:00 PM MARQUETTE 88 DEPAUL 61 149 18 147.5 Parlay ML Too Close
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  23. 01-25-24 06:08 AM #58
    usma1992
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    Anyone still following... so I am 30-18 on recent algorithms ... that are 100% back tested. Last night 3-0... so now 33-18. All the bets won depending on what line you got in on.

    So I ran a test this morning to see how sensitive the plays were. Specifically, I ran the test on Bradley game and Florida Atlantic game because both of those were very close to spread and almost losers.

    I changed Bradley from -7.5 to -8... still a bet.... change to -8.5 still a bet... at -9 it was no longer a bet. If you got in at-8.5 you lost... but I watched the game they should have easily covered and a guy missed a free throw with 22 seconds to go. Bradley won by 8.

    I changed Florida Atlantic from +12 to +13 and it was no longer a bet. FA won by 13.

    So what I am realizing is that my predictions are so precise that any significant or insignificant movement in the line changes the scenario.

    To me that is unbelievable.

    Anybody out there... lol.

    Won every bet last night. Only 5 but so what. By the way Marquette won the ML but didn't cover the spread as I predicted.

    Dave
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  24. 01-25-24 06:27 AM #59
    usma1992
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    Picks tonight... only Parlay ML... Can't even get odds on St. Mary CA. Enjoy Dave.

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    6:30 PM GA SOUTHERN 61 APPALACHIAN ST 83 144 -16 142.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    7:00 PM N CAROLINA A&T 65 DELAWARE 83 148 -13 151.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    7:00 PM YOUNGSTOWN ST 90 IUPUI 61 151 14 146.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    8:00 PM DETROIT 68 WI-MILWAUKEE 85 153 -12 155.0 Parlay ML Too Close
    11:00 PM PACIFIC 51 ST MARYS-CA 84 135 -27 134.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    11:00 PM ARIZONA 88 OREGON ST 64 152 19 149.0 Parlay ML Too Close
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  25. 01-25-24 06:37 AM #60
    prolexus
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    Thank you.

    Food for thought, not sure of the effort involved, but may your model be able to analyze the EuroLeague Basketball. They typically play twice a week. Currently in Round 23, playing today and tomorrow, and then no games till Tuesday.

    warmest regards.
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  26. 01-25-24 09:49 AM #61
    Sund
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    Wouldn’t Youngstown be an away - minus ?
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  27. 01-25-24 11:54 AM #62
    Enkhbat
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    Do you take KenPom and Sagarin ratings into consideration?
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  28. 01-26-24 06:13 AM #63
    usma1992
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    I will look into the EuroLeague... I need to be able to download the stats I need in order to conduct any real analysis.

    My filters for games are pretty tight so even though the projected points say go one direction... I have back tested many games and I applied those filters. Not sure why it didn't take Youngstown St. I will look into it. I had them winning by 29... they won by 28 lol.

    I do not take Kenpom or Sagarin ratings into account.

    Sucked Arizona got beat... only losing bet.

    Dave
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  29. 01-26-24 06:57 AM #64
    usma1992
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    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    7:00 PM IONA 81 SIENA 62 144 8.5 140.0 Away Minus Too Close
    9:00 PM UTAH VALLEY ST 60 SEATTLE 73 133 -6.5 140.0 Home Minus Too Close
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  30. 01-27-24 08:22 AM #65
    usma1992
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    Split last night... IONA was a blowout... for most of the game... Seattle won but didn't cover the 6.5 34-19 so far... Lots of bets today...

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    12:00 PM KANSAS ST 52 HOUSTON 78 131 -15 128.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    12:00 PM VIRGINIA 78 LOUISVILLE 64 141 8 128.5 Away Minus Too Close
    1:00 PM DETROIT 60 WI-GREEN BAY 77 136 -11.5 138.0 Parlay ML Too Close
    2:00 PM PENNSYLVANIA 76 COLUMBIA 79 155 1.5 146.0 Too Close Over
    2:00 PM TEXAS 68 BYU 82 150 -7 150.5 Home Minus Too Close
    2:00 PM N CAROLINA A&T 59 DREXEL 83 142 -17.5 142.0 Parlay ML Too Close
    3:30 PM W ILLINOIS 61 MOREHEAD ST 76 137 -10.5 131.0 Parlay ML Too Close
    4:30 PM LINDENWOOD 66 TENN-MARTIN 84 151 -12.00 154.0 Parlay ML Too Close
    6:00 PM TENNESSEE 82 VANDERBILT 59 141 13.50 141.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    7:00 PM DEPAUL 59 CREIGHTON 88 146 -24.00 144.0 Parlay ML Too Close
    8:00 PM SAN FRANCISCO 90 PORTLAND 64 154 13.50 152.0 Parlay ML Too Close
    10:00 PM GONZAGA 92 PACIFIC 58 150 25.50 154.5 Parlay ML Too Close
    4:00 PM KENNESAW ST 87 C ARKANSAS 73 160 8.50 167.0 Away Minus Too Close
    4:00 PM COPPIN ST 54 NORFOLK ST 76 131 -15.00 129.0 Parlay ML Too Close
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  31. 01-27-24 08:53 AM #66
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by usma1992 View Post
    Chucky the Goat... Your opinions are definitely.. valid ... I need to look into the spread aspect... On a side note... are you allowed to use THE GOAT ... are you predetermining that you are the best ever... I think someone or actually the many someones only get to give you that title. Just teasing you but ... being honest too. Did you see I went 19-1 yesterday? Most ML but still.

    Dave
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    It's a reference to my dog. And HE was the best ever.
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  32. 01-27-24 12:58 PM #67
    usma1992
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    I bet... he was... what type... yippee Dog... or big one...

    Hoping for a solid betting weekend... off to a solid start.

    Dave
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  33. 01-27-24 01:04 PM #68
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by usma1992 View Post
    I bet... he was... what type... yippee Dog... or big one...

    Hoping for a solid betting weekend... off to a solid start.

    Dave
    Black Lab. IMHO, black-lab is the best breed.

    GL on your plays.
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  34. 01-28-24 03:00 AM #69
    usma1992
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    We definitely agree on dog choice... I've never owned a black lab but my brother did.

    Looks like 13 -1... and yes I know... most are ML...

    Still impressive.

    Dave
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    OOGDA
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  35. 01-28-24 11:04 AM #70
    usma1992
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    37-20 on Spread, O/U bets... right at 65%.

    13-1 Yesterday... including ML of course... but still amazing. I am almost going on 30 days with these algorithms. Backtested 206-154. Feeling very comfortable. NBA generated a bet... too ... today.

    Picks today...

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    12:00 PM WRIGHT ST 91 IUPUI 65 156 15.5 158.0 Parlay ML Too Close
    1:30 PM N KENTUCKY 67 YOUNGSTOWN ST 81 148 -6.5 146.0 Home Minus Too Close
    10:00 PM NEVADA 66 NEW MEXICO 80 146 -8 154.0 Home Minus Too Close
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