[bustabook]

"

[p0711142]

is the lakers and hornet matchs fixed or what?
how can jazz only have 6 pts in the 4th Q and hornet 4th Q have only 32 ?

[bustabook]

Preliminary 12/10:


Boston @ Washington (7.5) 193
Average Score: Boston 103 - Washington 92
Outright wins: Boston 1521 - Washington 450
ATS wins: Boston 1191 - Washington 809
O/U: Over 1076 - Under 869

Orlando @ Utah (3) 203
Average Score: Orlando 100 - Utah 99
Outright wins: Orlando 1006 - Utah 940
ATS wins: Orlando 859 - Utah 1097
O/U: Over 786 - Under 1160

Denver @ Detroit (-2) 202 *NOTE* This isn't an actual line, just an estimate of what i thought it might be.
Average Score: Denver 104 - Detroit 100
Outright wins: Denver 1191 - Detroit 767
ATS wins: Denver 1279 - Detroit 678
O/U: Over 1091 - Under 858


----------------

These are simulations using data from 12/9...

[bustabook]

lol p07... i agree that those were pretty ridiculous... could've been a good night if not for those two insane 4th quarters, instead the model went 7-7 again.. owell.

ive made up my mind that i'm going to try not to complain about games anymore. i think it will all even out in the long run, as i will win some i shouldn't and lose some i shouldn't.

[TGoat]

--------------------

REALLY aggravated at this point... how the #$@% can New Orleans/Minnesota not score more than 32 points in the 4th quarter when the game is almost garaunteed to go over. And the bulls played the most unmotivated basketball ive ever seen.. fvcking joke. atleast san antonio eeked out a push, that was nice.

I think im going to re-evaluate after tonight. not sure what im going to do but i know i feel like scrapping this thing. just not getting the results i wanted.

For what it's worth. I was involved in a thread a while back posting my system plays. I cannot tell you how aggravating it was to see my selections lose. After a while I gave up. Guess what? I gave up too soon. The system is doing just fine (for totals), and had I simply stuck with it I'd be showing a nice profit.

One of the major problems is watching the games. That will frustrate you no end. I do much better when I simply look at the scores after the games are over. Plus, minus, minus, plus, plus plus. +5 -4. Ho-hum. The results are the results without the damning aggravation. [When you have the over there is nothing worse than some clown throwing up an airball or missing a free-throw. It's like tiny arrows being shot through your heart, but if you don't watch the games you won't be bothered by that. It's just a plus or a minus.]

Also keep in mind that you're gambling. In the gambling business there is fluctuation. You will lose for a while and win for a while, but you're working toward that 55-57% long term win-rate. Nobody, over time, really does much better than that. But 55-57 is enough to be profitable, and if you can do better then it's all gravy.

My advice would be to stick with it for a while and reduce your aggravation as much as possible. You're gonna have some horrible beats and some down swings no matter who you are or how you handicap.

Give it some time. You don't have to bet real money. You can bet your points at the SBR book instead.

[bustabook]

you are definately right about watching the game goat... especially a game as bad as the bulls game.

“Never cut a tree down in the wintertime. Never make a negative decision in the low time. Never make your most important decisions when you are in your worst moods. Wait. Be patient. The storm will pass. The spring will come.”

i am using this as my quote for the day...

sooooooo i added the "playing on back to back days" adjustment and am running some mock simulations (using the same team) right now to make sure everything looks OK.. it wont have an effect on the totals (and to be honest im not totally sure it shouldn't), as they seem to be doing OK. the team playing back to back will be handicapped but not paralyzed, and i think the adjustment is fair.

there are only 3 games on the schedule tomorrow so right after i get done testing i will run those and get them up....

[jcygts6]

im liking boston tonight

[CHAZ]

Do you have the line movements from past nights, which way it went? I'd like to start keeping track of away and towards.

12/9 wins/losses
Away from sim. 4 – 3
Toward sim. 4 - 2

[bustabook]

Official plays, 12/10:

Denver @ Detroit (4) 204
Average Score: Denver 105 - Detroit 99 (sim line: den -6, 204)
Outright wins: Denver 626 - Detroit 348 (Denver 64.3%)
ATS wins: Denver 529 - Detroit 444 (Denver 54.4%)
O/U: Over 503 - Under 470 (Over 51.7%)

Boston @ Washington (7.5) 193
Average Score: Boston 104 - Washington 91 (sim line: bos -13, 195)
Outright wins: Boston 827 - Washington 152 (Boston 84.5%)
ATS wins: Boston 664 - Washington 336 (Boston 66.4%)
O/U: Over 541 - Under 432 (Over 55.6%)

Orlando @ Utah (3) 203
Average Score: Orlando 100 - Utah 100 (sim line: pk, 200)
Outright wins: Orlando 509 - Utah 468 (Orlando 52.1%)
ATS wins: Orlando 425 - Utah 549 (Utah 56.4%)
O/U: Over 401 - Under 569 (Under 58.7%)

----------------

Side plays:
Detroit +7
Boston -7.5
Utah +3

O/U plays:
Denver/Detroit Over 198
Boston/Washington Over 193
Orlando/Utah Under 203

-----------------

[bustabook]

chaz, for 12/9.. i believe the line movement w/l were as follows:

toward sim: 2-4
away from sim: 4-3

[TGoat]

Do you have the line movements from past nights, which way it went? I'd like to start keeping track of away and towards.

12/8 wins/losses
Away from sim. 4 – 3
Toward sim. 4 - 2

It's just a guess, but I would have to say that the "away and towards" will balance out over time.

[bustabook]

wow detroit line opened at 7.. running that game again with current lines and will have it up in about 10 minutes

also... tonights line movements vs sim are:

denver/detroit (no movement side/total)
boston/washington (side didn't move, total went toward sim (193-->195))
orlando/utah (side went toward sim (3-->2.5), total went toward sim (203-->202))

[bustabook]

TGoat do you mean the wins/losses will balance over time or the lines moving toward/away will balance over time?

i think the lines will usually move towards the sim (yesterday was the first day it was almost even).

[bustabook]

500 simulations on denver game yielded these results...

Denver @ Detroit (7) 198
Average Score: Denver 104 - Detroit 100 (sim line: den -4, 204)
Outright wins: Denver 293 - Detroit 188 (Denver 60.9%)
ATS wins: Denver 204 - Detroit 286 (Detroit 58.4%)
O/U: Over 328 - Under 163 (Over 66.8%)

---------------

this new line changes the denver play to a detroit play and changes the total from a no play to an OVER play... GL

[p0711142]

should i place my bet on denver? the line is up to -7 now!

[bustabook]

p07... the play was detroit.

the denver play was based on a -4 line.. but the actual line was -7. that changed the play.

[bustabook]

see summary below..

[jcygts6]

yea the pace of the game is wayyy too fast =[

[bustabook]

i agree completely... both teams are just sprinting down the floor launching 3-pointers (and hitting), which is bad LOL.

[TGoat]

TGoat do you mean the wins/losses will balance over time or the lines moving toward/away will balance over time?

i think the lines will usually move towards the sim (yesterday was the first day it was almost even).

I meant the line moves toward/away would balance, but that is just a guess. Your sample size is small, so no definite conclusions should be drawn this early. But I might be in error about this and you are probably right.

Personally, and this is just another guess, I don't think it is going to be meaningful if the majority of moves are one way or the other. I fail to see at this point what can be drawn from that.

Good call on the Den/Over. By the way, where did you come up with the early line of Denver -4? I have the opening line at Denver -7 and the closing line at Denver -7.5.

[TGoat]

12/10 Summary:

Side plays:
Detroit +7
Boston -7.5
Utah +3

O/U plays:
Denver/Detroit Over 198
Boston/Washington Over 193
Orlando/Utah Under 203

------------------

3-1 so far on the night.. but utah looks like they are starting where they left off last night and orlando might score 200 points.

FWIW, and this is obviously a redboard, but my system picked the Orlando/Utah over as the best bet of the night. My projected score was 212, and the line was 202~. The other two NBA games the bookie matched my projection exactly.

The bigger the difference the higher the win rate. So far after 74 games a difference of 9 or more points yields a 61% win rate.

[bustabook]

tgoat... that denver line was just an uneducated guess of my own, no basis whatsoever.. i just thought it would be close.

as for the meaning behind line moves vs simulation lines... im not sure what (if anything) will be drawn from it but it may be something of value.

[bustabook]

tgoat... you do you have a thread or anything for your system? tried to find one via your posts but couldnt... you should make one i would be interested in it.. also, what do you mean this is a "redboard"?

[TGoat]

tgoat... you do you have a thread or anything for your system? tried to find one via your posts but couldnt... you should make one i would be interested in it.. also, what do you mean this is a "redboard"?

I didn't start the thread, but contributed quite a bit and it can be found here. Now that there are sufficient games for all of the NBA teams I may revisit that system and post my plays.

[I should add that I was all over the map with my selections, picking sides and totals and whatnot. It was originally designed for totals only and has proved effective sticking with that intention.]

Reboarding means saying you would have had team x, but it is after the game has started or after the game has completed. So if team x wins and after the fact you say, "I would have had that, no problem." That's a redboard.

[bustabook]

ahh i c.. i hope you do indeed start a thread, as i would be interested in following it.

btw, thanks for the contribution and input you have added to this thread.. it is very much appreciated and i hope you continue to add ideas/concerns/comments/questions.

BOL

[jcygts6]

hey you did great today! With that amazing utah comeback

[bustabook]

12/10 Summary:

Side plays:
Detroit +7
Boston -7.5
Utah +3

O/U plays:
Denver/Detroit Over 198
Boston/Washington Over 193
Orlando/Utah Under 203

-----------------
4-2, +1.8 Units

Overall:
57-38 (60%), +15.2 Units
-----------------

Nice night tonight... Both underdogs win outright.. totals were solid except for utah, which was way off.

[TGoat]

Just to give you an idea, here's a little peek at a screen shot of my spreadsheet for the last four days. [Changed it to a GIF instead of JPEG and it seems to be less blurry.]

[bustabook]

since alot of the time i run my simulation at night while im sleeping and the lines move by the time i post the results... i wanted to figure out the effect of a line moving on the simulation percentages. so i ran 4 separate simulations (1000 each) on the same game, moving the spread and total .5 points up each time.

results:

Denver @ Detroit (7) 203
Average Score: Denver 105 - Detroit 99 (sim line: Den -6, 204)
Outright wins: Denver 643 - Detroit 325
ATS wins: Denver 461 - Detroit 516 (Detroit 52.8%)
O/U: Over 495 - Under 477 (Over 50.9%)

Denver @ Detroit (7.5) 203.5
Average Score: Denver 105 - Detroit 99 (sim line: Den -6, 204)
Outright wins: Denver 646 - Detroit 328
ATS wins: Denver 464 - Detroit 536 (Detroit 53.6%)
O/U: Over 489 - Under 511 (Under 51.1%)

Denver @ Detroit (8) 204
Average Score: Denver 105 - Detroit 99 (sim line: Den -6, 204)
Outright wins: Denver 640 - Detroit 330
ATS wins: Denver 433 - Detroit 545 (Detroit 55.7%)
O/U: Over 478 - Under 492 (Under 50.7%)

Denver @ Detroit (8.5) 204.5
Average Score: Denver 105 - Detroit 99 (sim line: Den -6, 204)
Outright wins: Denver 644 - Detroit 331
ATS wins: Denver 424 - Detroit 576 (Detroit 57.6%)
O/U: Over 484 - Under 516 (Under 51.6%)

------------------

as you can see, the spread percentage went up at an average of 1.2% for every 1/2 point of line movement..

the percentages of the totals, on the other hand moved on average about 0.6% for ever 1/2 point of line movement..

however, i consider the results somewhat inconclusive and think i need a larger sample size to get more accurate and reliable results. honestly.. i think that the spread percentage probably moves at a rate of about 1.5% per 1/2 point and the totals probably move at a rate of about half that.

either way, it should give you guys an idea of how the simulation percentages vary depending on the line movements... hope this helps when trying to figure out if a line is still good enough to bet on around gametime.

im running tomorrows games now and they will be up tomorrow probably around 2:30 EST..

[bustabook]

nice tgoat...

a little hard to read because its so small but i see the concept and i like what you've got going. my program does not have the record keeping aspect that yours does, and i'm a little jealous of that.. LOL

[bustabook]

Official Plays, 12/11:


New Jersey @ Indiana (-3.5) 199.5
Average Score: New Jersey 90 - Indiana 100 (sim line: ind -10, 190)
Outright wins: New Jersey 244 - Indiana 736 (Indiana 75.1%)
ATS wins: New Jersey 327 - Indiana 673 (Indiana 63.7%)
O/U: Over 256 - Under 744 (Under 74.4%)

Houston @ Philadelphia (3) 194.5
Average Score: Houston 104 - Philadelphia 98 (sim line: hou -6, 202)
Outright wins: Houston 645 - Philadelphia 332 (Houston 66.0%)
ATS wins: Houston 581 - Philadelphia 399 (Houston 59.3%)
O/U: Over 695 - Under 305 (Over 69.5%)

Atlanta @ Toronto (4) 209
Average Score: Atlanta 107 - Toronto 101 (sim line: atl -6, 208)
Outright wins: Atlanta 649 - Toronto 330 (Atlanta 66.3%)
ATS wins: Atlanta 557 - Toronto 423 (Atlanta 56.8%)
O/U: Over 467 - Under 518 (Under 52.6%)

Dallas @ Miami (-1) 195
Average Score: Dallas 97 - Miami 98 (sim line: mia -1, 195)
Outright wins: Dallas 455 - Miami 518 (Miami 53.2%)
ATS wins: Dallas 515 - Miami 471 (Dallas 52.2%)
O/U: Over 482 - Under 501 (Under 51.0%)


Golden State @ Chicago (-4) 213.5
Average Score: Golden State 107 - Chicago 108 (sim line: chi -1, 215)
Outright wins: Golden State 463 - Chicago 513 (Chicago 52.7%)
ATS wins: Golden State 560 - Chicago 413 (Golden State 57.6%)
O/U: Over 552 - Under 448 (Over 55.2%)

Portland @ Cleveland (-9) 184
Average Score: Portland 89 - Cleveland 98 (sim line: cle -9, 187)
Outright wins: Portland 263 - Cleveland 706 (Cleveland 72.9%)
ATS wins: Portland 504 - Cleveland 466 (Portland 52.0%)
O/U: Over 567 - Under 407 (Over 58.2%)

Okla City @ Memphis (-2) 199
Average Score: Okla City 108 - Memphis 94 (sim line: okc -14, 202)
Outright wins: Okla City 814 - Memphis 168 (Oklahoma City 82.9%)
ATS wins: Okla City 849 - Memphis 137 (Oklahoma City 86.1%)
O/U: Over 558 - Under 424 (Over 56.8%)

New York @ New Orleans (-7) 210
Average Score: New York 105 - New Orleans 111 (sim line: nor -6, 216)
Outright wins: New York 339 - New Orleans 641 (New Orleans 65.4%)
ATS wins: New York 512 - New Orleans 457 (New York 52.8%)
O/U: Over 633 - Under 343 (Over 64.9%)

Charlotte @ San Antonio (-8) 187
Average Score: Charlotte 95 - San Antonio 93 (sim line: cha -2, 188)
Outright wins: Charlotte 539 - San Antonio 439 (Charlotte 55.1%)
ATS wins: Charlotte 741 - San Antonio 243 (Charlotte 75.3%)
O/U: Over 505 - Under 459 (Over 52.4%)

Minnesota @ LA Lakers (-15.5) 200
Average Score: Minnesota 85 - LA Lakers 107 (sim line: LAL -22, 192)
Outright wins: Minnesota 50 - LA Lakers 942 (Los Angeles 95.0%)
ATS wins: Minnesota 374 - LA Lakers 626 (Los Angeles 62.6%)
O/U: Over 285 - Under 695 (Under 70.9%)

Orlando @ Phoenix (-2.5) 216
Average Score: Orlando 108 - Phoenix 105 (sim line: Orlando -3, 213)
Outright wins: Orlando 576 - Phoenix 407 (Orlando 58.6%)
ATS wins: Orlando 638 - Phoenix 362 (Orlando 63.8%)
O/U: Over 399 - Under 573 (Under 59.0%)

------------------

Side plays:
Indiana (-3.5)
Houston (-3)
Atlanta (-4)
Golden State (+4)
Oklahoma City (+2)
Charlotte (+8)
LA Lakers (-15.5)
Orlando (+2.5)

Total plays:
New Jersey/Indiana Under 199.5
Houston/Philadelphia Over 194.5
Golden State/Chicago Over 213.5
Portland/Cleveland Over 184
Oklahoma City/Memphis Over 199
New York/New Orleans Over 210
Minnesota/LA Lakers Under 200
Orlando/Phoenix Under 216

------------------


As of right now (7:30 a.m. EST) i cannot find an actual line for Atlanta/Toronto or Dallas/Miami. I ran small set of simulations to get a projected line but it is by no means correct. I omitted any plays on those games but will add them later on, well before gametime.. GL


All plays are official.

[p0711142]

is this the final picks without the heats and hawks? or there is a edited play later on? cuz i wanna place my bet earlier this time round

[djiddish98]

Nice pic tgoat - I definitely recommend starting another thread - I love comparing systems to try and find an optimal betting card.

[trix]

is this the final picks without the heats and hawks? or there is a edited play later on? cuz i wanna place my bet earlier this time round

read the thread right above your own.

good job bustabook. keep up the good work pal. and BOL to your system

[bustabook]

thanks trix, much appreciated..

i edited the official 12/11.. all plays reflect correct lines.

GL all