[bustabook]

I have been working on a simulation program for NBA games, and I am going to use this thread to post plays and keep track of my record.

[pattymayo]

what ya got for tonight?

[bustabook]

12/3-

Boston @ San Antonio (-1.5): 101 simulations
Average score: Boston 96 - San Antonio 99
Outright wins: Boston 42 - San Antonio 57
Spread wins: Boston 45 - San Antonio 56

Houston @ Golden State (+2.5): 101 simulations
Average Score: Houston 107 - Golden State 105
Outright wins: Houston 58 - Golden State 40
Spread wins: Houston 53 - Golden State 48

Miami @ Denver (-8.5): 101 simulations
Average score: Miami 96 - Denver 107
Outright wins: Miami 20 - Denver 76
Spread wins: Miami 43 - Denver 58

Side Plays:
2 Unit: Denver (-8.5)
1 Unit: San Antonio (-1.5)

O/U Plays:
1 Unit: Houston/GS (Under 221)

[lakerpride]

we'll see!!!

[bustabook]

12/3 summary:

Side Plays:
2 Unit: Denver (-8.5)
1 Unit: San Antonio (-1.5)

O/U Plays:
1 Unit: Houston/GS (Under 221)

-----------------
2-1 (+1.9 units)


Overall:
2-1 (+1.9 units)

For tomorrow and on.. I will try to run more simulations per game in order to reduce variance.

[bustabook]

Going to be busy most of the day tomorrow so i ran simulations this morning.. GL.

12/4

Toronto @ Washington (-4) (215): 500 simulations
Average score: Toronto 105 - Washington 106 (Sim line: Washington -1, 211)
outright wins: Toronto 230 - Washington 259 (Washington 52.9%)
ATS wins: Toronto 291 - Washington 203 (Toronto 58.9%)
Over/Under: 184/298 (Under 61.8%)*

New York @ Atlanta (-12.5) (217): 500 simulations
Average score: New York 98 - Atlanta 106 (Simulation line: Atlanta -9, 204)
Outright wins: New York 141 - Atlanta 345 (Atlanta 70.9%)
ATS wins: New York 299 - Atlanta 201 (New York 59.8%)
Over/Under: 84/408 (Under 82.9%)***

Chicago @ Cleveland (-12) (190): 500 simulations
Average score: Chicago 90 - Cleveland 104 (Simulation line: Cleveland -14, 194)
Outright wins: Chicago 89 - Cleveland 401 (Cleveland 81.8%)
ATS wins: Chicago 211 - Cleveland 266 (Cleveland 55.7%)
Over/Under: 288/198 (Over 59.2%)

Milwaukee @ Detroit (-4) (186.5): 500 simulations
Average score: Milwaukee 98 - Detroit 93 (Simulation line: Milwaukee -5, 191)
Outright wins: Milwaukee 293 - Detroit 194 (Milwaukee 60.1%)
ATS wins: Milwaukee 342 - Detroit 142 (Milwaukee 70.0%)**
Over/Under: 300/200 (Over 60.0%)

Dallas @ Memphis (+5.5) (207): 500 simulations
Average score: Dallas 104 - Memphis 102 (Simulation line: Dallas -2, 206)
Outright wins: Dallas 263 - Memphis 226 (Dallas 53.8%)
ATS wins: Dallas 190 - Memphis 310 (Memphis 62.0%)*
Over/Under: 236/251 (Under 51.5%)

Charlotte @ New Jersey (+4.5) (180.5): 500 simulations
Average score: Charlotte 92 - New Jersey 88 (Sim line: Charlotte -4, 180)
Outright wins: Charlotte 295 - New Jersey 194 (Charlotte 60.3%)
ATS wins: Charlotte 244 - New Jersey 256 (New Jersey 51.2%)
Over/Under: 245/255 (Under 51.0%)

Minnesota @ New Orleans (-10.5) (200): 500 simulations
Average score: Minnesota 95 - New Orleans 104 (Sim line: New Orleans -9, 199)
Outright wins: Minnesota 139 - New Orleans 352 (New Orleans 71.6%)
ATS wins: Minnesota 285 - New Orleans 215 (Minnesota 57.0%)
Over/Under: 222/265 (Under 54.4%)

Boston @ Oklahoma City (+4) (191.5): 500 simulations
Average score: Boston 98 - Oklahoma City 96 (Sim line: Boston -2, 194)
Outright wins: Boston 270 - Oklahoma City 222 (Boston 54.9%)
ATS wins: Boston 222 - Oklahoma City 262 (Oklahoma City 54.1%)
Over/Under: 278/222 (Over 55.6%)

Indiana @ Utah (-8.5) (210.5): 500 simulations
Average score: Indiana 99 - Utah 102 (Sim line: Utah -3, 201)
Outright wins: Indiana 196 - Utah 289 (Utah 59.6%)
ATS wins: Indiana 316 - Utah 184 (Indiana 63.2%)*
Over/Under: 129/371 (Under 74.2%)**

Miami @ Los Angeles (-11.5) (198): 500 simulations
Average score: Miami 94 - Los Angeles 102 (Sim line: LA Lakers -8, 196)
Outright wins: Miami 149 - Los Angeles 342 (Los Angeles 69.7%)
ATS wins: Miami 287 - Los Angeles 213 (Miami 57.4%)
Over/Under: 196/287 (Under 59.4%)

Side Plays:
2 Unit: Milwaukee (+4)
1 Unit: Memphis (+5.5)
1 Unit: Indiana (+8.5)

O/U Plays:
3 Unit: New York/Atlanta (Under 217)
2 Unit: Indiana/Utah (Under 210.5)
1 Unit: Toronto/Washington (Under 215)

[TGHMak]

It's nice to know someone else is with me on the Bucks game. Accuscore has them at them 46.6% SU and 57.9%@ +4 ATS.

[mundane]

interesting! keep it up!

[djiddish98]

Love following the excel plays. Very nice presentation as well.

Also, I'd watch out on throwing big money on the 70 and 80% plays - If you're using past data to make predictions, most of the time there's something outside of the data that's accounting for that percentage to be so high and Vegas has already accounted for it.

[WhatAboutMeBitch]

interesting stuff

[bustabook]

DJ, i agree with you that something is usually going on outside the realm of data analysis.. however, in this first model i want to make plays SOLELY based on the data (irrelavent of line movements, other cappers, current form, etc) to see what shows up... but thanks very much for the input, this is the very reason i put this thread up is to get comments/concerns/ideas from other people on this forum.

this is just the first step in developing a more encompassing model which takes into account variables other than just data.. remember, this is beta 1.1 (meaning the VERY first model to actually simulate games). it may very well come to be that i want to fade all plays coming in over a certain percentage, as i have no idea what is going to happen. but i think i am doing ok since the vast majority of the actual lines are very close to the simulation lines.

any comments are greatly appreciated..

note* i ran 500 simulations per game, which is 5x more than i ran the first day. lets see what happens.

[bustabook]

12/4 summary-

had some tough luck tonight as i lost all four plays by less than 5 points (milwaukee, indiana, ny/atl under, toronto/wash under), including 2 by 1 point or less. also forgot to add a winning play (milwaukee/det over 186.5) that was over 60.0% in simulations, pleh.

Side Plays:
2 Unit: Milwaukee (+4)
1 Unit: Memphis (+5.5)
1 Unit: Indiana (+8.5)

O/U Plays:
3 Unit: New York/Atlanta (Under 217)
2 Unit: Indiana/Utah (Under 210.5)
1 Unit: Toronto/Washington (Under 215)

-------------------
2-4 (-4.7 units)

Overall:
4-5 (-2.8 units)
-------------------

i hate days like this.. i feel like i could have gone 4-2 (+ units) or even better but instead it looks like a terrible day.

that being said, i am happy with the results so far even though percentage is < 50% and units are down when playing "unit" plays.. especially since the system "actually" went 13-7 today when including ALL plays (playing every side/total which is > 50% in sumulations).

i am going to continue to post beta 1.1 until i am relatively certain that the model is a losing one.

[bustabook]

i am currently simulating 9 games for 12/5.. should be up with 2 hours.

[catch28]

neat

[bustabook]

yay screenshots!

[bustabook]

12/5-

tweaked the model a little bit in order to get sim lines closer to totals.. shouldn't have any effect on sides.

Philadelphia @ Charlotte (-4.5) 187.5 (1000 simulations)
Average Score: Philadelphia 94 - Charlotte 103 (sim line: char -9, 197)
Outright wins: Philadelphia 248 - Charlotte 718 (Charlotte 74%)
ATS wins: Philadelphia 368 - Charlotte 632 (Charlotte 63.2%)*
O/U: Over 685 - Under 315 (Over 68.5%)*

Toronto @ Chicago (-5.5) 207 (1000 simulations)
Average Score: Toronto 100 - Chicago 103 (sim line: chi -3, 203)
Outright wins: Toronto 419 - Chicago 550 (Chicago 56.8%)
ATS wins: Toronto 567 - Chicago 433 (Toronto 56.7%)
O/U: Over 407 - Under 581 (Under 58.8%)

Utah @ Minnesota (7.5) 197.5 (1000 simulations)
Average Score: Utah 103 - Minnesota 96 (sim line: utah - 7, 199)
Outright wins: Utah 691 - Minnesota 285 (Utah 70.8%)
ATS wins: Utah 492 - Minnesota 508 (Minnesota 50.8%)
O/U: Over 490 - Under 510 (Under 51.0%)

Denver @ San Antonio (-3) 206 (1000 simulations)
Average Score: Denver 105 - San Antonio 106 (sim line: SA -1, 211)
Outright wins: Denver 469 - San Antonio 505 (San Antonio 51.8%)
ATS wins: Denver 543 - San Antonio 433 (Denver 55.6%)
O/U: Over 561 - Under 411 (Over 57.7%)

Atlanta @ Dallas (-4) 204.5 (1000 simulations)
Average Score: Atlanta 102 - Dallas 105 (sim line: Dal -3, 207)
Outright wins: Atlanta 409 - Dallas 569 (Dallas 58.2%)
ATS wins: Atlanta 510 - Dallas 467 (Atlanta 52.2%)
O/U: Over 524 - Under 476 (Over 52.4%)

Sacramento @ Phoenix (-11) 227 (500 simulations)
Average Score: Sacramento 109 - Phoenix 114 (sim line: Phoenix -5, 223)
Outright wins: Sacramento 169 - Phoenix 317 (Phoenix 65.2%)
ATS wins: Sacramento 316 - Phoenix 174 (Sacramento 64.5%)*
O/U: Over 187 - Under 300 (Under 61.6%)*

Houston @ Portland (-5) 190.5
Average Score: Houston 97 - Portland 98 (sim line: Por -1, 195)
Outright wins: Houston 233 - Portland 246 (Portland 51.4%)
ATS wins: Houston 305 - Portland 183 (Houston 62.5%)*
O/U: Over 312 - Under 188 (Over 62.4%)*

Orlando @ Golden State (9) 221
Average Score: Orlando 107 - Golden State 103 (sim line: Orl -4, 210)
Outright wins: Orlando 294 - Golden State 190 (Orlando 60.7%)
ATS wins: Orlando 177 - Golden State 313 (Golden State 63.9%)*
O/U: Over 102 - Under 386 (Under 79.1%)**

Indiana @ LA Clippers (-2.5) 200.5
Average Score: Indiana 95 - LA Clippers 102 (sim line: LAC -7, 197)
Outright wins: Indiana 156 - LA Clippers 335 (LA Clippers 68.2%)
ATS wins: Indiana 192 - LA Clippers 308 (LA Clippers 61.6%)*
O/U: Over 197 - Under 303 (Under 60.6%)*

I am eliminating 3 Unit plays until i get more familiar with the model and its tendencies.. here are todays plays, GL.

Sides:
1 Unit: Charlotte (-4.5)
1 Unit: Sacramento (+11)
1 Unit: Houston (+5)
1 Unit: Golden State (+9)
1 Unit: LA Clippers (-2.5)

O/U:
2 Unit: Orlando/Golden State (Under 221)
1 Unit: Philadelphia/Charlotte (Over 187.5)
1 Unit: Sacramento/Phoenix (Under 227)
1 Unit: Houston/Portland (Over 188)
1 Unit: Indiana/LA Clippers (Under 200.5)

[bustabook]

Summary 12/5:

Sides:
1 Unit: Charlotte (-4.5)
1 Unit: Sacramento (+11)
1 Unit: Houston (+5)
1 Unit: Golden State (+9)
1 Unit: LA Clippers (-2.5)

O/U:
2 Unit: Orlando/Golden State (Under 221)
1 Unit: Philadelphia/Charlotte (Over 187.5)
1 Unit: Sacramento/Phoenix (Under 227)
1 Unit: Houston/Portland (Over 188)
1 Unit: Indiana/LA Clippers (Under 200.5)

-------------------
7-3, +2.6 Units

Overall:
11-8, -0.2 Units
--------------------

The day went almost exactly like i thought it would.. with the "o/u"'s doing OK and the "sides" coming in pretty solid.

going foward, i want to implement ML plays into the plays section.. i think i am missing out on units by betting spreads sometimes when it may be more profitable to take ML (on both favorites and underdogs). i also want to get more accurate with the total plays, so i am only going to be risking 1 unit on total plays until i figure it out a little better.

Also, i noticed that the lines are moving alot by gametime with most of the lines moving in the direction of my simulated lines. I think this is a good sign since i am of the mindset that lines get sharper the closer you get to gametime, generally speaking.

Anyway, will start simulating soon here for tomorrow's plays and they should be up within a couple of hours.

[bustabook]

12/6

New Jersey @ New York (-5) 201.5
Average Score: New Jersey 104 - New York 100 (sim line: NJ - 4, 204)
Outright wins: New Jersey 309 - New York 176 (NJ 63.7%)*
ATS wins: New Jersey 366 - New York 127 (NJ 74.2%)**
O/U: Over 281 - Under 219 (Over 56.2%)

Cleveland @ Milwaukee (7) 195
Average Score: Cleveland 95 - Milwaukee 95 (sim line: pk, 190)
Outright wins: Cleveland 245 - Milwaukee 235 (Cleveland 51.0%)*
ATS wins: Cleveland 153 - Milwaukee 338* (Milwaukee 68.8%)*
O/U: Over 164 - Under 324 (Under 66.4.%)*

Washington @ Detroit (-3) 189
Average Score: Washington 94 - Detroit 101 (sim line: Det -7, 195)
Outright wins: Washington 157 - Detroit 333 (Detroit 68.0%)
ATS wins: Washington 200 - Detroit 283 (Detroit 58.6%)
O/U: Over 333 - Under 160 (Over 67.5%)*

Miami @ Sacramento (pk) 204.5
Average Score: Miami 100 - Sacramento 101 (sim line: Sac -1, 201)
Outright wins: Miami 226 - Sacramento 262 (Sacramento 53.7%)
ATS wins: Miami 226 - Sacramento 262 (Sacramento 53.7%)
O/U: Over 198 - Under 302 (Under 60.4%)*

Phoenix @ LA Lakers (-9.5) 222.5
Average Score: Phoenix 98 - LA Lakers 111 (sim line: LAL -13, 209)
Outright wins: Phoenix 102 - LA Lakers 390 (LA Lakers 79.3%)
ATS wins: Phoenix 210 - LA Lakers 290 (LA Lakers 58.0%)
O/U: Over 94 - Under 406 (Under 81.2%)*

Side plays:
1 unit: New Jersey (+5)
1 unit: Milwaukee (+7)

O/U plays:
1 unit: Cleveland/Milwaukee (Under 195)
1 unit: Washington/Detroit (Over 189)
1 unit: Miami/Sacramento (Under 204.5)
1 unit: Phoenix/LA Lakers (Under 222.5)

ML plays:
1 unit: New Jersey (+190)
0.5 units Milwaukee (+250)

note* i didnt get a ML this early so i just used a generic spread/ML converter

-----------------

the lines move alot from now until game time, so if the lines move (which they will) i suggest buying points up/down to posted lines.. the predictions are based on simulations using these lines.

if nothing else, the model is good at predicting which way lines will move.

GL

[bustabook]

ADD:
1 unit: Detroit (-3)

[bustabook]

12/6-

Side plays:
1 unit: New Jersey (+5)
1 unit: Milwaukee (+7)
1 unit: Detroit (-3)

O/U plays:
1 unit: Cleveland/Milwaukee (Under 195)
1 unit: Washington/Detroit (Over 189)
1 unit: Miami/Sacramento (Under 204.5)
1 unit: Phoenix/LA Lakers (Under 222.5)


ML plays:
1 unit: New Jersey (+190)
0.5 units Milwaukee (+250)

Moneyline plays were no good, but i still like the NJ pick after the fact.. They were up by 8 at halftime and didn't show up for the 2nd half. Milwaukee, on the other hand, never showed up at all.

----------------------
4-5, -0.8 units


Overall:
15-13, -1.0 units
----------------------

Even though my units are down.. the model is picking over 61% in all sides/totals over 50% in simulations.. i think it may be better to just bet all plays over 50%, but im not sure.

All plays over 50% (including spreads/totals, excluding ML)
12/3: 3-3 (50%)
12/4: 12-8 (60%)
12/5: 12-6 (67%)
12/6: 6-4 (60%)


A $100 bettor would be up $990 (9.9 units) in the last 4 days, playing all plays over 50%.

[bustabook]

12/7- (500 simulations)

Denver @ Philadelphia (6) 210
Average Score: Denver 110 - Philadelphia 102 (sim line: Den -6, 212)
Outright wins: Denver 336 - Philadelphia 151 (Denver 69.0%)
ATS wins: Denver 277 - Philadelphia 211 (Denver 56.8%)
O/U: Over 268 - Under 220 (Over 54.9%)

Portland @ New York (4) 203
Average Score: Portland 105 - New York 94 (sim line: Por -11, 199)
Outright wins: Portland 386 - New York 106 (Portland 78.5%)
ATS wins: Portland 327 - New York 156 (Portland 67.7%)
O/U: Over 175 - Under 308 (Under 63.8%)

Golden State @ Okla City (-7) 222
Average Score: Golden State 99 - Okla City 114 (sim line: OKC -15, 213)
Outright wins: Golden State 68 - Okla City 423 (OKC 86.2%)
ATS wins: Golden State 139 - Okla City 355 (OKC 71.9%)
O/U: Over 132 - Under 361 (Under 73.2%)

San Antonio @ Utah (-1.5) 192.5
Average Score: San Antonio 98 - Utah 99 (sim line: Utah -1, 197)
Outright wins: San Antonio 237 - Utah 245 (Utah 50.8%)
ATS wins: San Antonio 267 - Utah 233 (San Antonio 53.4%))
O/U: Over 317 - Under 183 (Over 63.4%)

*Note* To get Denver/Philadelphia line i ran 100 simulations since no line was out. the actual line should be close but if not, i will re-run simulations tomorrow.

Side Plays (All 1 unit):
Denver (if line is <= 6.5)/ Philadelphia (if line is > 6.5)
Portland (-4)
Oklahoma City (-7)
San Antonio (+1.5)

O/U plays (All 1 unit):
Denver/Philadelphia OVER (if line is <= 210)/ UNDER (if line is > 210)
Portland/New York (Under 203)
Golden State/Oklahoma City (Under 222)
San Antonio/Utah (Over 192.5)

---------------------------

i now have a few days of data.. i want to get a few more before i start back-testing different models. as of right now, this is still beta 1.1.

GL

[aznjeff07]

hope you're wrong about that gs/ok game, but your systems percentage on that game is high. It's a jm play btw

[bustabook]

does his sytem play Golden state or Oklahoma city?

[aznjeff07]

jm play is gs +10, denv +3 on top of the line, and port -1

[bustabook]

interesting.. not sure exactly how his plays are selected but i hear he does pretty well.

[bustabook]

to be honest.. at this point i dont know if having a high percentage is a good thing or a bad thing.

the system overall is working at a good clip but the higher percentages haven't shown a higher winning percentage as i would have hoped.

[aznjeff07]

Well you're hitting at a decent percent and anything that goes against my plays always makes me nervous...Either way I see it unlikely that gs loses by more then 10 to the thunder unless they just don't show up. I do agree with the denver play

[jcygts6]

gl.. and keep up the good work!

[bustabook]

i know this is a mute point but i think i should say it anyway... on the first day i ran only 101 simulations and made picks using those simulations. also, i noticed very quickly that some things had to be adjusted (mainly totals but others involving weaker teams being overvalued).. i think i noticed this either after the first day or after the second day.

so tonight i re-ran 500 simulations for 12/4, using the statistics base from 12/4. i know these dont actually change my records but i was intrigued by the results and wanted to share... that being said, here are the would-be results if the current formula was used on 12/4.

12/4:

Boston @ San Antonio (-1) 188
Average Score: Boston 95 - San Antonio 94 (sim line: Bos -1, 189)
Outright wins: Boston 257 - San Antonio 225
ATS wins: Boston 275 - San Antonio 205
O/U: Over 254 - Under 229

Houston @ Golden State (3) 221
Average Score: Houston 113 - Golden State 110 (sim line: Hou -3, 223)
Outright wins: Houston 275 - Golden State 212
ATS wins: Houston 237 - Golden State 252
O/U: Over 258 - Under 225

Miami @ Denver (-9) 211
Average Score: Miami 96 - Denver 105 (sim line: Den -9, 201)
Outright wins: Miami 127 - Denver 362
ATS wins: Miami 239 - Denver 246
O/U: Over 125 - Under 365

---------------------------

my thinking with this project was that if i could get my simulated lines very close to the actual vegas lines that i could spot value when a simulated line was way off of where it should be..

that being said... from 12/4- all lines (sides and totals with the exception of the Denver total) were within 2 points of the gametime line. i know that may not seem important, but that means that this model will actually predict which way lines are going to go from opening until gametime.

i hope this continues, as there is a huge advantage knowing where the lines will be moving.

[cortez11]

Awesome work!

[PockyStick]

gl busta.
Have you try backtesting?

[bustabook]

12/7- (1000 simulations)

Denver @ Philadelphia (5.5) 216.5
Average Score: Denver 111 - Philadelphia 102 (sim line: Den -9, 213)
Outright wins: Denver 693 - Philadelphia 280 (Denver 71.2)
ATS wins: Denver 576 - Philadelphia 424 (Denver 57.6)
O/U: Over 415 - Under 585 (Under 58.5)

Portland @ New York (4) 203
Average Score: Portland 105 - New York 93 (sim line: Por -12, 203)
Outright wins: Portland 770 - New York 204 (Portland 79.1)
ATS wins: Portland 686 - New York 293 (Portland 70.1)
O/U: Over 370 - Under 599 (Under 61.8)

Golden State @ Okla City (-7) 222
Average Score: Golden State 99 - Okla City 115 (sim line: OKC - 16, 214)
Outright wins: Golden State 152 - Okla City 837 (OKC 84.4)
ATS wins: Golden State 298 - Okla City 678 (69.5)
O/U: Over 283 - Under 698 (Under 71.2)

San Antonio @ Utah (-2) 192.5
Average Score: San Antonio 97 - Utah 99 (sim line: Utah -2, 196)
Outright wins: San Antonio 418 - Utah 565 (Utah 57.5)
ATS wins: San Antonio 458 - Utah 505 (Utah 52.4)
O/U: Over 588 - Under 412 (Over 58.8)

------

Plays:
Denver (-5.5)
Portland (-4)
Oklahoma City (-7)
Utah (-2)

Sides:
Denver/Philadelphia Under 216.5
Portland/New York Under 203
Golden State/Oklahoma City Under 222
San Antonio/Utah (Over 192.5)

-------------------

These are the official plays for 12/7... i have omitted the Utah/SA game because in the first 500 sims, SA was the play.. but for the next 1000 sims, Utah was the play.. the both won in < 54% simulations.

i am beginning to think that within 500 sims, variance can be up to 6 or 7%. whereas for 1000 sims, variance could be up to 3-4%. so from now on i will be posting everything over 56%/500 sims and everything over 53%/1000 sims.

[bustabook]

i can only backtest for this season, since the model runs on day-specific data and i dont know of any site which has this for past seasons.

if it is successful i will have to write another excel program to get day-specific data for past seasons.

--------------

as expected (with the exception of the Portland line), all lines are moving TOWARD my simulation lines.. i will be keeping a VERY close eye on the portland game, since there may be plays where the vegas lines move in the opposite direction of sim lines.

GL

[djiddish98]

another great writeup Busta. If you're using random numbers at all, I might recommend running several trials of 500 or 1000 increments and averaging the results. I'm not sure how random number generation works in VBA / Excel, but it could be based on your system clock if I recall. Running a simulation several times could possibly reduce some of the variation that you'll find even among 1000 sim runs.

[bustabook]

you are right, my RNG is basing its seed on the system clock (ms). i am currently running another set of 1000 simulations for today (with current lines), in order to see what happens.. will post my findings when its finished, probably before gametime.