1. #421
    J.M. Disciple
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    I hope stiff post plays early cause first game 12pm et. which we should have have B wager on. login early to confirm. good night all.

  2. #422
    Teamprofit101
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    I hope bobcats come through for us because i'm down a few extra units since we are running two series on them and i also have a separate labby running on all the plays

  3. #423
    Stifler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stifler View Post
    17.11.2012

    S1


    (B Bet) SA: SA Spurs -5 1,10u | SA Spurs -6,5 2,31u
    (A Bet) Char: Charlotte +6 1,10u

    S3

    (A Bet) Char: Charlotte +6 1,10u

    S4

    (B Bet) Tor fade: Indiana -9,5 1,10u | Boston -7 2,31u
    (A Bet) Chic fade: Clippers -6 1,10u
    records:
    S1: W 7 | L 0 (+7,00 units)
    S2: W 2 | L 0 (+2,00 units)
    S3: W 1 | L 0 (+1,00 units)
    S4: W 5 | L 0 (+5,00 units)

    pending:
    - S1 NYK, B Bet on 18.11.2012
    - S1 Char, B Bet on 19.11.2012
    - S3 Char, B Bet on 19.11.2012

  4. #424
    Stifler
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    18.11.2012

    S1

    (B Bet) NYK: NY Knicks +5,5 1,10u | NY Knicks-6,5 2,31u


    u should get this line quick...it will move up very soon i think.
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  5. #425
    and24
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    Any other matches for today?

  6. #426
    J.M. Disciple
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    Up to 7.5.... I shouldn't of waited

    good call. all about the closing line anyways.

  7. #427
    GeorgeLynch
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    Wouldn't Boston be an S1 play today? Going back to 11/10 they've had 3 wins ATS and 2 pushes (using covers.com closing lines).
    Sorry if I'm off base on this... Just don't want to miss a potential play.

  8. #428
    Nino7
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    Cash

  9. #429
    jimmy007oc
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    Miss a 1st half, tailed a 2nd Half NY Knicks - 11.5 ) Cash by winning 12 pts

  10. #430
    itsjhurley
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    pending:
    - S1 NYK, B Bet on 18.11.2012
    - S1 Char, B Bet on 19.11.2012
    - S3 Char, B Bet on 19.11.2012[/QUOTE]

    so we bet charlotte twice right? I saw this the other day and I thought it was a typo.

  11. #431
    Stifler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stifler View Post
    18.11.2012

    S1

    (B Bet) NYK: NY Knicks +5,5 1,10u | NY Knicks-6,5 2,31u
    records:
    S1: W 8 | L 0 (+8,00 units)
    S2: W 2 | L 0 (+2,00 units)
    S3: W 1 | L 0 (+1,00 units)
    S4: W 5 | L 0 (+5,00 units)

    pending:
    - S1 Char, B Bet on 19.11.2012
    - S3 Char, B Bet on 19.11.2012

  12. #432
    Stifler
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    Quote Originally Posted by itsjhurley View Post
    pending:
    - S1 NYK, B Bet on 18.11.2012
    - S1 Char, B Bet on 19.11.2012
    - S3 Char, B Bet on 19.11.2012

    so we bet charlotte twice right? I saw this the other day and I thought it was a typo.
    yes, 2 different series on charlotte.
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  13. #433
    fooubar
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    S3 Char, B Bet on 19.11.2012
    I'm curious, what do you do if one or multiple of those bets during a home/away series are a push and the next game ist away/home?

    e.g. Charlotte almost pushed vs Memphis, but they only have 4 home games, so if it went to a D bet, when how you handle that?

  14. #434
    Grinder12000
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    fooubar - I believe you just wait it out for the next Home/Away game. They don't have to be all together.

    One thing I have found is that many times when you do have a losing series you also WIN that game because you are actually betting AGAINST yourself hmmmmm

    For instance

    In a S1 Series WWWLLL The "D" bet is for a win but ALSO you have an "A" bet on a loss LOL I've been doing some back testing (trying to figure out how to find certain teams) starting with 2000 and there are lost of tricky things. This will be an interesting year and I'm curious how Stifler handles some bizarre situations.

    Question for Stifler - did you handle last year any differently in back testing. It beign a strange year - or was it an "F-it" moment. and just compiled as normal.
    Last edited by Grinder12000; 11-18-12 at 07:04 PM.

  15. #435
    Stifler
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    Quote Originally Posted by fooubar View Post
    I'm curious, what do you do if one or multiple of those bets during a home/away series are a push and the next game ist away/home?

    e.g. Charlotte almost pushed vs Memphis, but they only have 4 home games, so if it went to a D bet, when how you handle that?
    Good question actually. Just to make it clear, we are just talking about S3 here, that doesnt have an influence on the other systems. I cant exactly tell what ive done when i backtested it (maybe this doesnt happen over the 6 years). We are just talking about a home series / road series of exactly 4 games, where lets say the A bet pushes and we are having 3 games left. I would probably make it a 3 game chase instead. But i really cant remember that happening when i made the research, but still a realistic scenario.

    Question for Stifler - did you handle last year any differently in back testing. It beign a strange year - or was it an "F-it" moment. and just compiled as normal.
    Numbers were count same as the years before. Still when i choose the teams i kept in mind it was a lockout season. Doesnt had a huge impact though...

  16. #436
    fooubar
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    Good question actually. Just to make it clear, we are just talking about S3 here, that doesnt have an influence on the other systems. I cant exactly tell what ive done when i backtested it (maybe this doesnt happen over the 6 years). We are just talking about a home series / road series of exactly 4 games, where lets say the A bet pushes and we are having 3 games left. I would probably make it a 3 game chase instead. But i really cant remember that happening when i made the research, but still a realistic scenario.
    It can get even trickier, say the A,B,C bet lost and the D bet pushed on the last game, what now?Certainly you can just play their next home/away game or stop the series and count it as a lost chase.

    But yeah, it essentially boils down to how you came up with your numbers. Maybe you take a look at how you treated it? Can't imagine that this scenario never came up.

  17. #437
    Grinder12000
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    Yea - that was what a team did in 2000 that I was looking at. I have to think that in that case you just move to the next time that play! You are doing basically the same thing - it's a chase. Might not be exactly as developed but . . . . . that's why it's called gambling LOL

  18. #438
    Grinder12000
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    Wasn't Boston suppose to be a S1 play today? WWPPW ? Probably didn't have BOTH those pushes.

    my bad it was asked in an above post.
    Last edited by Grinder12000; 11-19-12 at 11:24 AM.

  19. #439
    kosti
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grinder12000 View Post
    Wasn't Boston suppose to be a S1 play today? WWPPW ? Probably didn't have BOTH those pushes.
    Pushes break streaks when we are waiting for a series.

  20. #440
    Riceboi
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    Looks like a Denver fade starting tomorrow. They lost 3 ATS in a row and they are on the S1 list.

  21. #441
    kosti
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riceboi View Post
    Looks like a Denver fade starting tomorrow. They lost 3 ATS in a row and they are on the S1 list.
    There are quite a few plays tomorrow...we will wait for Stifler's official plays

  22. #442
    juice050
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    nice

  23. #443
    and24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riceboi View Post
    Looks like a Denver fade starting tomorrow. They lost 3 ATS in a row and they are on the S1 list.
    Where are these lists?

  24. #444
    Stifler
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    19.11.2012

    S1


    (B Bet) Char: Charlotte +6 1,10u | Charlotte waiting on a better line
    (A Bet) Den fade: Memphis -7,5 1,10u

    S2

    (A Bet) Atl fade: Orlando +9,5 1,10u
    (A Bet) Utah: Utah waiting on a better line here

    S3

    (B Bet) Char: Charlotte +6 1,10u | Charlotte waiting on a better line
    Points Awarded:

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  25. #445
    Stifler
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    Quote Originally Posted by fooubar View Post
    It can get even trickier, say the A,B,C bet lost and the D bet pushed on the last game, what now?Certainly you can just play their next home/away game or stop the series and count it as a lost chase.

    But yeah, it essentially boils down to how you came up with your numbers. Maybe you take a look at how you treated it? Can't imagine that this scenario never came up.
    I never jumped to their next home/road game, thats for sure. I would probably quit after the D bet pushes and end the series losing the C bet. Still i cant remember that happened when i backtested it, atleast 1 of the 4 games was a winner.
    No matter what if it really comes to that point i can easily make a situational decision.

  26. #446
    Grinder12000
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    When something like that happens I've found there are normally other Systems in play at the same time which might help make a decision.

  27. #447
    zilchy
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    Utah now -7 and Kittens +5.5. You think we can get at least another half point on both Stifler? I'm tempted to go for Utah right now.

  28. #448
    Asset
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    S2

    (A Bet) Atl fade: Orlando +9,5 1,10u
    (A Bet) Utah: Utah waiting on a better line here

    @Stifler: I'm sorry but I don't see how this is an S2 play. There are no streaks that I can see. Can you tell me the dates please? Sorry for being slow...Thanks

    Btw thanks for all your great work. I can't give you points yet, it resets later in the day

  29. #449
    zilchy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Asset View Post
    S2

    (A Bet) Atl fade: Orlando +9,5 1,10u
    (A Bet) Utah: Utah waiting on a better line here

    @Stifler: I'm sorry but I don't see how this is an S2 play. There are no streaks that I can see. Can you tell me the dates please? Sorry for being slow...Thanks

    Btw thanks for all your great work. I can't give you points yet, it resets later in the day
    Utah won and covered their only three home games so far. Atlanta did not cover their only three home games so far.

  30. #450
    racer43
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    "

  31. #451
    Asset
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    "

  32. #452
    Stifler
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    Orlando line already up to +10,5 and Memphis -7. i think Charlotte will get back to 5,5, Utah probably will stay @ -6,5. Closing line is important (atleast the listed line on covers). I will wait before i put in my last plays.

  33. #453
    bilalcakar
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    Orlando move down now in all betbüro.
    edit: you already took it. sorry.
    Last edited by bilalcakar; 11-19-12 at 02:32 PM.

  34. #454
    stickbit
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    im still on em but just an fyi - reverse line movement on Denver... % shows heavy action on Memphis and line is down to -6.5

  35. #455
    Grinder12000
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    WHAT IF!!

    What if Miami was an S1 Play? (they aren't) We would be little puddles of goo on then latest "D" game. The 5th road game in 7 days coming off two high scoring games and the next night after losing the last 3 (ATS) you play IN Mike High Denver and only +3.5.

    "D" game - Confidence is high LOL They won. Chase victory!

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