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You don't want to play both teams because you would pay double vig.
So you would have
1 unit on S4 (A Bet) Maimi fade: Cleveland.
2.1 units on (B Bet) Cle fade: Miami just play 1.1 units on this game instead of 2.1 and don't wager on Miami at all but keep track of it. . . . right?
If Miami wins you play the S4 "B" fade game for the normal amount. If Cleveland wins play the normal "C" amount.
What you don't want to do is place 2 bets on opposite sides as the book wins and you are paying twice.
Last edited by Grinder12000; 11-23-12 at 09:46 AM.
Sounds like a planOriginally Posted by Maleku
Thank-you
Are you not missing out on a potential series win by doing this? Ultimately losing out on a single unit since the vig is covered in b,c, or d bet wins?
S2
(A Bet) Cle fade: Orlando -4 1,10u
@Everyone: About this game today, I'm sorry I brought it up. Lets just wait and see what the outcome of the game will be. Orlando probably gonna win anyways so lets just all just be confident/happy
@Stifler: I'm sorry...not gonna happen again
Asset - not arguing - just doing math and I think it's an interesting situation - trying to eek out a few more bucks. Money management is the fun part of systems!!!
bold does not mean yelling :-)
Sorry - I play 1 unit to win 0.91 but it's the same the other way (actually a little more costly).
If you play both games
S4 A 1 unit to win 0.91
S1 B 2.1 units to win 1.91 units minus the "A" bet so 0.91
-----
S4 Win
S4 Bet 1 unit wins +0.91
S1 Bet 2.1 loses -2.1 units + previous 1 unit = -3.1 units
Total (+0.91 + -3.1 = -2.19 units)
Play S1"C" like normal the next game
S1 Win
S4 Bet 1 loses -1 unit -
S1 Bet 2.1 wins 2.1 units = 1.91 - previous 1.00 = +0.91
Total (-1.00 + 0.91 = 0.09 units)
play S4 "B" for 2.1 the next game just like normal
If you just play one game and take the 1 unit you would put S4 "A" and subtract it from S4"B" so it's like this
S4 A bet 0 units
S1 B bet 1.1 units
S4 win
S4 A bet -0 units wins +0 units
S1 B bet 1.1 units loses -1.1 + previous -1.00 = -2.1
Total ( 0 + -2.1 = -2.10 units)
Play the normal S1 "C" bet next game
S1 Wins
S4 A bet 0 units loses +0 units
S1 B 1.1 units wins 0.91 - previous 1.00 = .09
Total (0 + 0.09 units)
Play S4 "B" like normal the next game
So it's not much but you gain 0.09 units by not paying the vig twice. .
Last edited by Grinder12000; 11-23-12 at 11:07 AM.
what are you guys doing if your line is different? for example ORL is -4.5 for me, do you buy points to -4 and start it with 1.2u (-120)?
Any advice Stiffler?
The results you can find on post #1 have been etablished from the closing line on Covers.com so as long as you pick the line by game time you are good to go.Sometimes the outcome of a bet will differ from Stifler's...if it's not in your favor keep chasing the serie on ur own
The best way to play is play both series to the end. If they go head to head one is an assured winner and the other series will pick up it's win another day and in the end you'll have 2 units which is the most profitable scenario.
Exactly thelimit - you always play both series - however you can play one with "zero" units to save the vig because 1 unit offsets the other unit on the other game. Why pay 10% twice when you only have to pay it once.
Now I will shut up. It's all about money management ESPECIALLY in system play. Winning is only one part of gambling.
I now will go dark :-)
rod
post #133
Hey stifler, Thanks for looking this up, however I was wondering about the A,B,C,D game records for each system.
So what are today's bets stifler?
This is exactly the proper bet structure for this situation. This is how all head to head bets should be played on any level, with the exception of both being (D) bets, where the luxury of skipping a team doesn't exist. This is kind of what I was trying to point out the other day.
Grinder's method is exactly right, you will win TWO units on the team you continue with, not one unit, and if the series happens to lose, the loss will cost slightly less. I have been doing this for years, as hard as it is to explain, it is the most profitable way to play it. The only tricky part is keeping track of the teams if it happens in several series at once, as it did for me in MLB this year. But if you create good spreadsheets for yourself with color codes, it's a piece of cake.
- updated, u can get Utah -8,5 aswell.
23.11.2012
S1
(C Bet) Den fade: Memphis -7,5 1,10u | Minnesota +3,5 2,31u | Golden State - think i can get +7 here, still waiting
(B Bet) Sac fade: Lakers -5,5 1,10u | Utah -9 2,31u
S2
(A Bet) Cle fade: Orlando -4 1,10u
S4
(A Bet) Atl fade: Charlotte +3,5 1,10u
(A Bet) LAC fade: Brooklyn +3 1,10u
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The S4 Dal fade, B Bet is still pending and will be continued tomorrow, 11/24.
Thanks for the reply, but this does not answer my question. I know the results on post #1 is from closing lines on Covers.
What I am asking though is what to do when the line differs? Don't bet it? Buy the points if necessary to match the line? If so, play that at higher units to get the same 1 unit payoff (obviously larger loss than 18.45u)?
Example: tonight the line for Utah was posted at -9 and updated that you could get it for -8.5. However my local book had it for -9.5...
Also covers shows the Orlando line at -4.5 and it was posted here as 4, why the discrepancy btwn here and covers? He just got lucky and locked it in at -4?
Last edited by msetai; 11-23-12 at 07:42 PM.
-wasnt able to post in time, but thats the line for GS
23.11.2012
S1
(C Bet) Den fade: Memphis -7,5 1,10u | Minnesota +3,5 2,31u | Golden State +6,5 4,85u
(B Bet) Sac fade: Lakers -5,5 1,10u | Utah -9 2,31u
S2
(A Bet) Cle fade: Orlando -4 1,10u
S4
(A Bet) Atl fade: Charlotte +3,5 1,10u
(A Bet) LAC fade: Brooklyn +3 1,10u
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So the ORL game for Stifler was a push so he will start the A bet again...however for others and line on covers was -4.5 so it was a loss.
People who lost should continue fading CLE but do differences like this occur often?
msetai this issue was brought up before about a week ago. Stifler bases his results in his backtests on covers closing lines but doesn't use their lines when he posts the plays and its led to a lot of discrepancy. For example tonight Orlando pushed for him but lost officially on covers. As long as Stifler posts his own lines this isn't the last time this will happen. My advice to you is use covers closing lines no matter what Stifler gets, thats what his results from the past 6 years are from so play according to what you see there.
Okay thanks the thelimit0310!
I read through the forum but thought there might have been a better "solution"
So going off covers, should be fading CLE against MIA on 11/24. But MIA is a valid S4 bet and we are supposed to bet (fade MIA bet on CLE) on them as well right?
Or do what it says a couple of pages back...
edit...thelimit0310 answered
Funny how all of this just circles back to the point I made two days ago. If I am reading the confusing criteria correctly, then if I'm not mistaking, if the next two Cleveland and Atlanta fades happen to lose, then these two will meet up for that head-head (D) bet matchup. But the good news is, from what I've read on here, it shouldn't happen again for another 10 years. I'm glad we're getting it out of the way now.
Please let me know if I've read the criteria wrong to come to this conclusion.
Well - for some of you - I'm breaking out my slide ruler for tomorrow LOLSo the ORL game for Stifler was a push
Actually 9.7 years but that is not taking into account expansion. Plus if a team moves to a different city what does that do to the S2 in play ???from what I've read on here, it shouldn't happen again for another 10 years.
Wallco99 - sometimes you actually have to use your handicapping skills as opposed to using a system as a crutch to figure things out! Thank on the move man. Rules are made to create more rules.
ALL possibilities have not been explored yet, yes, I'm sure there are holes but the world does not end. We are not in gridlock and all wagering must stop! Pick a side we're at war :-)
As for tonight's push/loss outcome,. Some of us will now bet fade Clev as a "B" game and some will bet Clev fade as an "A" game.
Personally I'm betting 1.1 units on Fade Cleve and 0.0 units on Miami WHILE keeping that S4 system alive.
RIGHT NOW lets worry about Golden State.
Last edited by Grinder12000; 11-23-12 at 09:47 PM.
The only point I was ever trying to make was to just be alert, as a player betting the games not as a person posting the system, before starting any series in any system to see if any of your plays could potentially face each other in a (D) bet matchup. That is all. My god, you guys are acting like I am asking someone to rewrite the rules. I only stated this because this is a multi-level system with different criteria for each level, exactly like my MLB Plu$$ system was. When you have systems like this, the chance of playing both sides of a game definitely exists, including the (D) bet. I never said anything was wrong with a system like that, just as I never said Stifler shouldn't post plays that face each other, as the system moderator, he should post every play. But the individual players, especially those playing other systems along with this one, should just pay attention to what bets they have in upcoming games before placing their (A) bet wagers in any system. It was just a heads up for the new players who may not be aware of such occurances, and really doesn't warrant any further argument or denial of it being a fact. Thanks.
Wallco99 - calm down calm down - you will notice I had some smiley faces in my post.
Fair enough and I agree, looking ahead IS the smart thing - I know I play other S4 games not listed because I look ahead and say holy f*ck they are screw with that schedule (ie - tonight Fade Okla and N.O).
I get what you are saying and it's not falling on deaf ears. What somebody SHOULD do is bring up the exact problems ahead of time in a short concise way. It's a valid problem with something like this.
a tough night for Stifler's guys ! We will recap it soon ! BOL guys !
Fade Denver D bet incoming. Yikes.
If you chicken out during the chase then no point in playing systems. Systems are meant to be played like a robot.
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To be honest this is my first chase system. I AM GONNA SHIT!! on Sunday LOL
@Grinder: Check your mail
Last edited by Asset; 11-24-12 at 12:43 AM.
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We got Alt Fade and Clipper fade tomorrow.
Thanks for all the responses guys!
Bad beat on ORL for me, but that's the way "the cookie crumbles"'
So I will have to fade CLE but I will wait to see what Stifler does with MIA matchup...
Also, guys that are facing a D bet with the system, don't worry it happens. If you have to eat a loss then you eat a loss...the average losses from '06-12 is 3.83. So an average year will have at least 4 losses. Your bankroll should have enough for this situation, if not, then you are under capitalized and will definitely be stressing when the series gets to a C or D bet (harsh truth). And please don't rule out the fact that multiple series may go to a D bet.
When i made the research those possible crossover games maybe happened aswell, but i didint recognized them. If i still end finishing with results any near those past results im absolutely fine with that. Also u have a sure winner on a D bet when they face each other, ofc u can go 2-0 on those D bets aswell if u change things, but there is also the possibility to go 0-2 on those D bets. So if it gets to the point im living with it and play both teams on the D bet, as i did the last years aswell (unintentionally).
I do expect D bets for the season (smth around 15 D bets - was in the range the years before) + i also expect to lose series on the season. The thing about losing in sports betting is how to deal with losses.
records:
S1: W 9 | L 0 (+9,00 units)
S2: W 4 | L 0 (+4,00 units)
S3: W 2 | L 0 (+2,00 units)
S4: W 6 | L 0 (+6,00 units)
pending:
- S1 Den fade, D Bet on 25.11.2012
big card today, im not having much time now, will post all plays in like 4-5 hours when im back. I already placed some bets due to line movement...
plays today short list:
S4 atl fade (B bet): clippers -2 (already placed)
S2 Cle fade (new A bet): miami -14,5 (already placed)
S1 Sac fade (C bet): Utah - waiting
S3 Atl (A Bet) waiting
S4 Mia dade (A Bet): Cleve - waiting
S4 Dal fade (B bet): LAkers -1 (already placed)
S4 Wash fade (A bet): Char +4 (already placed)
S1 Chic fade (A Bet): Mil -2,5 (already placed)
S3 GS (A Bet): waiting
off now...
24.11.2012
S1
(C Bet) Sac fade: Lakers -5,5 1,10u | Utah -9 2,31u | Utah -1,5 4,85u
(A Bet) Chic fade: Milwaukee -2,5 1,10u
S2
(A Bet) Cle fade: Miami -14,5 1,10u
S3
(A Bet) Atl: Atlanta - waiting on a better line
(A Bet) GS: Golden State -2,5 1,10u
S4
(B Bet) Atl fade: Charlotte +3,5 1,10u | Clippers -2 2,31u
(B Bet) Dal fade: NY Knicks -2,5 1,10u | Lakers -1 2,31u
(A Bet) Mia fade: Cleveland -waiting on a better line
(A Bet) Wash fade: Charlotte +4 1,10u
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