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Gremlin- A more dominant horse? Do yourself a favor and pop on Youtube and WATCH the LA and ARK derbies. What dominance are you referring to? He was a stride away in the ARK derby from winning, he lost by a freaking NOSE Gremlin and was steamrolling at the end. Look at the fractions. The LA derby was also a shorter distance and he lost that by a HEAD Gremlin (which is why they skipped the Preakness because he prefers the longer distance).Originally Posted by Gremlin Lad
I know I don't know much bout horse racing, but I just want to reiterate something that i said before. I like Nehro, just don't like Nakatani. Just my two cents.
I see Nehro as bred for 1 mile to 1 1/8 and running style has nothing to do with how far they can go.There are plenty of closing sprinters who relish 6 furlongs but stretch them out to a mile and the big closing kick they had disappears.
Also this is my opinion and just because someone has a different opinion doesn't mean they don't know what they are talking about.Thats close minded and foolish which is also an opinion of mine.
I am starting to see way too many people like Brilliant Speed.I might have to rethink my key
Mikemca, to quote you directly: I see Nehro bred for 1 mile to 1 mile and 1/8.
Have you looked at the pedigree? If you have then I'm not sure how you can make that statement. Mineshaft HOY 2003 - his crop excel at distances of 1 1/4 and longer. His sire A.P. Indy- HOY 1992, won the Belmont in and BC Classic that year. His grandsire Seattle Slew HOY 1977, TC winner. And he isn't bred for distance?
Running style has nothing to do with how far they can go.
See Shackleford's performance in KY derby. Out to the front all race long with Flashpoint and died in the stretch. Why? 1 1/4 race. And his style didn't effect that outcome? He died in the stretch Mike because of his specific running style, just like Forestry who only won at lengths of 1 1/16 and 7 furlongs. That doesn't make much sense.
Yes there are plenty of closing sprinters who relish 6 furlongs, but Nehro isn't one you're describing. There was no closing sprint for Nehro in the KY derby Mike because he was moved before the far turn. Watch the 1 1/4 race (Which he PLACED) again if you need to.
And finally, when did I say you didn't know what you were talking about? I mean you have a couple of things wrong there but I wasn't being close minded. Just an opinion.
The close minded statement was meant for this genius
That is fine is you still think Nehro can't make the distance though in my opinion I believe he can.
If you don't like him to win Mike I would still put him in exotics considering he placed last three.
And stay on the Brilliant Speed train! It's a better option than Mucho Macho IMHO.
Thanks for the info mikemca. I've been planning on making a show bet on Nehro as a type of even money play, but am looking for reasons to be skeptical.
You say that Nehro is bred for the shorter distance. Why would the owners hold him out of the Preakness, despite looking healthy leading up to the race, in preparation for the Belmont? He most likely would have gone off as the 2nd favorite.
If he gets beat by better horses, so be it. However, I don't want to be holding a ticket on a horse who can't run 1.5 miles.
I don't think they held him out of the Preakness just to run in the Belmont.I think they just didn't want to run him back on two weeks rest and the Belmont was the next logical race.So it just worked out that way.If I was looking at a show bet I would narrow it down to Brilliant Speed or Mucho Macho Man.This is purely based on odds as you will only have to risk maybe a 1/4 of what you would have to on Nehro or AK to win the same and IMO they have just as good a chance .
Oh and if I didn't answer the question of Nehro getting the 1 1/2 distance,hitsory is not on his side.He has a dosage of 4.33 and typically in the Belmont you want it under 3.00.So he is well over and only a few horses have bucked this guideline in the history of the Belmont and at 5/2 to 3/1 I would pass the race before I bet him.
You may be right about MMM but I see the switch to Dominguez as a huge deal and Belmont is his backyard.
its so funny listening to some peoples opinions...some people just have no clue how to bet horses...theres only 6 horses that have a chance to win this race so right away you can cut the field in half and then start your handicaping...Animal Kingdom is the horse to beat and I do think he will win. He is not a false favorite like Dailed in or Ice Box. This horse is legit and will most likely win and he has one of the best jockeys on his side. A lot of people are wondering if Shackleford can do what Da Tara did in 2008. I dont think so because this years field of horses is much better than in 2008. In 2008 Big Brown was a 1-4 fav and finsihed last. The field that year was very very weak and Da Tara was tired down the stretch and no horse ever really made a good closing effort on Da Tara. Many other good horses have question marks like MMM and his shoes and MOH with traveling over from europe again. I love how the field shaped up and honestly i see this race as a replay of the kentucky derby with maybe Master of hounds coming in the money as he was closing nicely in the derby.
I watched the last 3 belmonts on youtube the other day. To refresh yalls mememory for those who have forgot. Last year Drosselmeyer won at 10-1 with Fly down 2nd at 5-1 and First Dude 3rd at 5-1. That year I had big WPS bets on Fly Down and First Dude. I admit I overlooked Drosselmeyer and left him out but still won money that day. In 2009 Summer Bird won at 12-1 with Dunkirk coming in 2nd and Mine that Bird coming in 3rd. That year Borel messed up bad on mine that bird and made his move way to early. Thats why you cannot ignore how important Velazquez and Dominguez are in this race as they are the best jockeys in this race. Borel just doesnt race at belmont very often and didnt know how to race on the track which cost him. In 2008 Da Tara won at 38-1 in a race that was impressive but that race is very different from this year. Its cool watching the last 3 belmonts or so and seeing what mistakes were made and by who. If anyone has any thoughts on my last two post just let me know. I think there are a few smart people in this forum and between all of us we can come up with the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place finishers in the 2011 Belmont.
If you really put that much faith into dosage numbers I'm surprised you win any bets. Numbers don't lie but they sure can provide half-truths that aren't completely accurate. If they were always right we'd all be rich.
He has the ability to get this distance whether that is good enough for the win I don't know. But the distance will not be an issue on Saturday for this horse. I place that same confidence only in Brilliant Speed & Animal Kingdom. All others in this field are very questionable.
Who said anything about them being always right.I don't put alot of stock in dosage but as the distance gets longer I think they are one of many tools that help.Its a game where you have to take a stand and eliminate some horses based on incomplete information.Add the fact that he is likely to be 5/2 or 3/1 and the risk is not worth the reward to me.
I was one horse away from hitting the Super last year (story of my life), and rode the Ice Box train instead of Drosselmeyer so it'd be nice to hit this one. I agree with you on Velazquez being a major plus for this particular race but keep in mind he is 1 for 14 in the Belmont and this was his first derby win. And lets be honest Rbyrne Dominguez is riding a horse that is slipping (MMM). The horse is overworked and running him in a marathon race at this point in his 3yo campaign isn't doing him any favors.
I hope I have made the smart person list but if not oh well. I can only realistically throw 4 horses out right off the bat (to not hit the money). Those are: Monzon, Isn't he Perfect?, Stay Thirsty, and Ruler on Ice.
I guess with your six out you included Prime Cut and Santiva maybe but I feel they still have a shot to hit the board. Let me know what you think.
My top four are still Nehro, Master of Hounds, Brilliant Speed, and Animal Kingdom.
I don't believe he will be bet down that much Mike. People consider this a race between Shackleford and AK and will bet them down over excessively. I wouldn't be shocked if he was 4-1, and I doubt he stays the 2nd favorite. I could be wrong but I would be surprised if he was 2nd favorite in front of Shack. The public wants to see them duel in the stretch and they will bet that way.
5/2= No way, those are AK odds.
What I'm getting at is if you're eliminating Nehro because of the dosage I think you're making a mistake based on other factors present.
My Top 4 horses are Animal Kingdom, Nehro, Master of Hounds, and Shackleford. Last years pace setter First Dude finished 3rd so I cannot ignore that and have to include Shack in my trifecta box. If you can let me know why you like Brilliant Speed, to be honest I dont know too much about that horse. I know this guy who told me he was throwing out Animal Kingdom and Shack. I kinda laughed when he said that, how can you throw out animal kingdom? I understand why he would throw out Shack because of the distance and post position but if he gets in a nice steady pace he very well could be there at the end to finish in the money.
I do think Animal Kingdom will win the race. A lot of people I know will only bet long shots in the belmont because alot of long shots have won in the past but to use that as a reason for this year i think is silly. This year we clearly have 2 horses that the public think are strong closers in Animal Kingdom and Nehro. Im just sayn i do think one of the favs will win this year and it wont be a long shot.
The last time a favorite won the belmont was Alfeet Alex in 2005 and i think its about time another fav wins and animal kingdom looks the part of one of the better favs we have seen the last few years.
I will agree with you that Animal Kingdom looks tough again for this race. And if he has a better trip than the Preakness he has a legit shot. He had to come back from a pretty long margin and only lost to Shack by 1/2 length.
The reason I like Brilliant Speed is because of his increasing Beyer numbers. He also ran a decent race in the derby. Despite running 7th, the gap between 5-7 wasn't much at all. And Brilliant Speed had to go extremely wide to be able to get in a position to contend in the stretch. Distance shouldn't be an issue. The only beef I have with him is the surface. Won the Bluegrass Stakes but that was on Poly. All those other factors give me faith though to have it in the money.
Master of Hounds scares me because besides the 5th place in KY derby I don't know much about the horse's competition. He ran 2nd in a race in Dubai though but has been shipped all over the place. That being said I don't believe they would send him back over here for this unless he has a good chance. He also has the 1 post which isn't a bad spot to be in considering the distance to cover.
Not saying anything on if he can come in the money or not BUT ...
talking being breed for "the distance", you have to consider STAY THIRSTY
Stay Thirsty has the distance in his blood lines AND "they" have WON the BELMONT STAKES.
Is Stay Thirsty the real sleeper in the Belmont ?
http://www.pedigreequery.com/stay+thirsty
Now I see more people liking AK, which the one I like also. I don't how much will traveling affect MoH, but if Gomez can track the horse a little closer than he did in the derby, I really like his chances of at least come second. This horse has been tracking leaders in the past instead of closing from far behind. So with the one hole, he should save a ton of ground. As for Nehro, if Dominquez is on him, I will definitely put him in the top 3, but with Nakatani, then.... Good luck with ur win bet. Just my two cents. Go AK, bring the kingdom home!
Btw, what r the chances of cancelling due to weather??
nvm good luck everyone
Last edited by mikemca; 06-09-11 at 07:38 PM.
With NYRA ...your guess is good as any one's.
Definitely a strong chance of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS Saturday.
http://www.weather.com/weather/weekend/27673:20?role=
Last edited by Gremlin Lad; 06-09-11 at 08:21 PM.
They make to much from the takout to cancell saturday.
hey alexander...check out bleacher report...the guy on there has Brilliant Speed as his winner..thanks because i def overlooked that horse and after researching him it looks like he will finish in the money..if he didnt have traffic issues in the derby he probly woulda finsied 2nd or 3rd. im gonna put him in my tri box and probly take out mucho macho man or santiva
This is for everyone on Nehros nuts.....Nehro (4/1)Overpriced, overvalued and will likely be over-bet. He did finish second in the Kentucky Derby, but he was much closer to the pace than Master of Hounds and Brilliant Speed and has absolutely no excuse for not holding off Animal Kingdom down the stretch. Nakatani and Asmussen are as good of connections as anybody in the race, but I just don't feel he has the chutzpah in the stretch to get the job done here.A definite exotics play, but I'm betting he won't hit the board and maybe won't even fill out a Superfecta ticket either.
This is some info i found from a guy that likes Brilliant Speed..I agree with him but think AK will be 1st.Once again, in any race over a mile, pace of the race is key. We won't get the early blistering fractions like we saw in the Preakness, but I also don't see us getting the crawling pace we saw in the Kentucky Derby either. The only chance Prime Cut has in this race is if he pushes the pace and somehow has the lead after a mile and somehow holds off his challengers down the stretch (won't happen). I also look for Mucho Macho Man's connections to push him closer to the lead as well as he has shown that his customary stalking abilities aren't good enough to put him into position to beat the rest of the others that are entered here.This race won't really start till we get to the mile pole, a position in which I fully see Shackleford having the lead yet again. However, this time around the closers will have a lot more room, and less horses to maneuver around to make their late kicks and late speed of foot much more a factor for Shackleford to hold off this time around. Given a much cleaner trip, I fully look for Brilliant Speed to have the best speed of foot late and end up ahead of fellow closers in Master of Hounds, Animal Kingdom, and Santiva to pull out the win.
I still think you need to check out Nehro's trips with the ARK and KY derbies again. In the ARK he is closing like a beast at the end. There is no excuse for not winning the ARK derby you are right. However I still feel that he was moved too early in the KY. If you watch the replay he is taking the horse out to the front from the outside before they hit the far turn, which is way too early for him to contend with a fresh closer like AK was in the race. I think his true stamina shows in the KY derby by holding off other horses even after making that type of early move though. I know he fits the bill as a bridesmaid, but to say he won't be there after placing the last three (2 Grade 1s and a Grade 2) isn't giving him enough credit. Either you're on the train or you're not, but if it is the distance that is concerning I'm telling you with the right ride he is a lethal threat.
I can't say he will win the Belmont given the stacked talent, but to leave him out of your exotics wouldn't be the best bet.
Im def puting Nehro in my exotics....that was just some info from a website i found and just figured i post it in here
Santiva had a very troubled trip as well, and the race before Santiva had one of the worst trips I can recall and still ran a huge race. I am excited to see what kind of race he can have if he can get some racing luck.
1. Brilliant Speed
2. Animal Kingdom
3. Master of Hounds
4. MMM
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