Have not seen a form Lkid.Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1
Check out the other threads in here.
These guys are pretty darn good.
Usually plenty of higher priced plays .
 SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks |
Best Sportsbooks List
|
|
| |||||
| #1 FanDuel | SBR rating 4.8/5 | Review | #6 BetRivers | SBR rating 4.1/5 | Review | #2 Caesars | SBR rating 4.7/5 | Review | #7 Fanatics | SBR rating 4.1/5 | Review |
| #3 DraftKings | SBR rating 4.7/5 | Review | #8 Betway | SBR rating 3.8/5 | Review | ||
| #4 BetMGM | SBR rating 4.6/5 | Review | #9 Borgata | SBR rating 3.5/5 | Review | ||
| #5 bet365 | SBR rating 4.6/5 | Review | #10 ClutchBet | SBR rating 2.9/5 | Review | ||
-
08-06-17 11:55 AM #2311
-
08-06-17 12:15 PM #2312
-
08-09-17 08:59 AM #2313
Hey STR: Question on the high Rake in the horse racing game. On average about 18% WPS and 20% on exactas. Interested to get your take coming from the the side of being employed in the game. Thx.
-
08-09-17 04:24 PM #2314
I will try and get to this tomorrow or asap. Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66
This will not be a short answer.
Very complex.
I will try not to bore you.
Need to think about an honest and helpful response.
More important than the complexity of it, is what the customer should do.
I will talk about both but focus on the ladder.
-
08-10-17 06:13 AM #2315
Sounds good. Look forward to reading your insights on this subject.
-
08-10-17 09:11 PM #2316
Just read that Keeneland has increased the rake from 16% to 17.5% on WPS, and 19% to 22% on exactas.
-
08-11-17 07:53 AM #2317
The takeout is a complex issue. But it is a necessary evil to fund the show. Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66
From the pro higher takeout side, the track puts on the show and needs money to do so. And I will say that their expenses are much more complex and much higher than I thought they would be when I served on the horsemen's board way back when. I had no idea of that when I started training and was first elected to the board. Those costs have only grown much higher today I am sure. In the eyes of management, the set takeout is totally necessary.
The con higher takeout side is simple. Reduce the takeout, attract handle, and be a player friendly game that gives more back to the player to recirculate.
Some of the things I heard come out of the mouths of the MD. track general managers at our board meetings in regard to customers was shocking. They were looked upon in the same light as drug addicts who need a fix and don't care about anything but today . So to management, the takeout amount did not matter as they were confident players would play no matter the %. And sadly this holds true for the lottery players who have a 50% rake and swear they "won" when they get their dollar back on a scratch ticket. Unreal.
And from what I see on this site, playing 1-5, 2-5, and 3-5 shots in pro sports is no big deal. As the "sharps" say "juice doesn't matter if you win". More pearls of wisdom which I find pathetically ignorant when it comes to placing wagers in any venue.
So... what does a player that is trying to take every edge afforded to them ( which every serious player should do) do in terms of where to play and what to play?
The first thing any serious player should do is see what the takeout is at every track where they play. Most will notice that the higher the reward ( payout on a winner) the higher the takeout is. Triples will be a much higher take than win, place, show for example. If the take % is out of line with what you can get somewhere else, go somewhere else. The player might say, ok but I have put a lot of time into a certain track and moving my focus to new ones will be hard and I will lose money learning the new track. Well, if that's the case, learn the other track without betting. Stay at the track you were comfortable with until such a time you are ready to make the move. Or, stop playing certain exotics that have a higher than average takeout. Or, cut back the amount you play into those pools.
Shop around for bargain low takeouts. But do try and know the track at least somewhat. I hate seeing people jump into a track pool and they don't know the first thing about that track. A player is really up against other players that know things you don't know. And being parimutuel, you are all playing against one another.
As for Keenland, I saw they raised their takeout . Does this place them higher than most or some. I'm not sure but it seems to me they are not grossly over the typical take. I do not know the real answer though.
It would be interesting to see what track has the lowest takeout on each type of bet. I would be looking into that angle if I played seriously.
Hope that helps Easy. If I didn't touch on something in particular you wanted to know, please let me know.
-
08-11-17 08:04 AM #2318
Thx for your opinion. Makes sense that the rake is necessary but at what price. Very subjective. Going to post the takeout rates for US tracks. Not sure of how updated it is though.
-
08-11-17 08:06 AM #2319
ALB Albuquerque 0.19 0.25 0.25 0.25 NA 0.25 0.25 0.25 NA NA AP Arlington 0.17 0.205 0.25 0.25 0.15 0.205 0.25 0.25 0.15 0.15 AQU Aqueduct 0.16 0.185 0.24 0.24 NA 0.185 0.24 0.24 0.15 0.15 ARP Arapahoe 0.185 0.23 0.24 0.24 NA 0.23 0.24 0.24 NA 0.24 ASD Assiniboia 0.19 0.26 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.26 0.29 0.15 NA NA ATL Atlantic City 0.17 0.19 0.25 0.25 NA 0.19 0.25 0.25 NA 0.25 BEL Belmont 0.16 0.185 0.24 0.24 NA 0.185 0.24 0.24 0.15 0.15 BEU Beulah 0.18 0.225 0.225 0.225 NA 0.225 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 CBY Canterbury 0.17 0.23 0.23 0.23 NA 0.23 0.14 0.14 NA 0.23 CD Churchill Downs 0.175 0.22 0.22 0.22 NA 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 CNL Colonial Downs 0.18 0.22 0.22 0.22 NA 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 CRC Calder 0.18 0.21 0.27 0.27 0.19 0.21 0.27 0.27 0.12 0.27 CT Charles Town 0.1725 0.19 0.22 0.22 NA 0.19 0.22 0.22 NA 0.22 DED Delta Downs 0.17 0.205 0.25 0.25 NA 0.205 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 DEL Delaware 0.17 0.19 0.25 0.25 NA 0.19 0.25 0.25 0.15 NA DMR Del Mar 0.1543 0.2267 0.2368 0.2368 NA 0.18 0.2368 0.2368 0.14 0.2368 ELP Ellis Park 0.175 0.22 0.22 0.22 NA 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 EMD Emerald Downs 0.16 0.221 0.221 0.221 NA 0.221 0.221 0.221 0.221 NA EVD Evangeline 0.17 0.205 0.25 0.25 NA 0.205 0.25 0.25 NA NA FE Fort Erie 0.1695 0.262 0.282 0.262 NA 0.262 0.262 0.173 0.262 0.262 FG Fair Grounds 0.17 0.205 0.25 0.25 NA 0.205 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 FL Finger Lakes 0.18 0.2 0.25 0.25 NA 0.2 0.25 0.25 NA 0.25 FMT Fair Meadows 0.18 0.21 0.24 0.24 NA 0.21 0.24 NA NA NA FON Fonner Park 0.18 0.2 0.25 0.25 NA 0.2 0.2 0.25 NA NA FP Fairmount Park 0.17 0.205 0.25 0.25 NA 0.205 0.25 NA NA NA FPX Fairplex 0.1677 0.2402 0.2502 0.2502 NA 0.2402 0.2502 0.2502 0.14 0.2502 GG Golden Gate 0.1543 0.2268 0.2368 0.2368 NA 0.2268 0.2368 0.2368 0.14 0.2368 GP Gulfstream 0.17 0.2 0.26 0.26 0.15 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.15 0.2 HAS Hastings 0.15 0.218 0.273 0.263 NA 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 NA HAW Hawthorne 0.17 0.205 0.25 0.25 0.2 0.205 0.25 0.25 0.14 0.2 HOU Sam Houston 0.18 0.21 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 NA IND Indiana 0.18 0.215 0.215 0.215 NA 0.215 0.215 0.215 NA 0.215 KD Kentucky Downs 0.16 0.1825 0.19 0.19 NA 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.14 0.19 KEE Keeneland 0.16 0.19 0.19 0.19 NA 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 LA Los Alamitos 0.1763 0.2288 0.2288 0.2288 NA 0.2288 0.2288 0.2288 NA 0.2288 LAD Louisiana Downs 0.17 0.205 0.25 0.25 NA 0.205 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 LRL Laurel 0.18 0.21 0.2575 0.2575 0.18 0.21 0.2575 0.2575 0.18 0.2575 LS Lone Star 0.18 0.21 0.25 0.25 NA 0.21 0.25 0.25 0.12 0.12 MNR Mountaineer 0.1725 0.19 0.25 0.25 NA 0.19 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 MTH Monmouth 0.17 0.19 0.25 0.25 NA 0.19 0.25 0.15 0.15 0.2 NP Northlands 0.145 0.248 0.248 0.248 NA 0.248 0.248 0.248 0.1 0.248 OP Oaklawn 0.17 0.21 0.21 0.21 NA 0.21 0.21 0.21 NA 0.21 PEN Penn National 0.17 0.2 0.31 0.3 NA 0.2 0.25 0.25 0.25 NA PHA Philadelphia 0.17 0.2 0.3 0.3 NA 0.2 0.26 0.26 NA 0.26 PID Presque Isle 0.17 0.2 0.25 0.25 NA 0.2 0.23 0.23 NA 0.23 PIM Pimlico 0.18 0.21 0.2575 0.2575 NA 0.21 0.2575 0.2575 0.18 NA PM Portland Meadows 0.18 0.21 0.22 0.22 NA 0.21 0.22 0.14 0.15 0.22 PRM Prairie Meadows 0.17 0.2 0.23 0.2 NA 0.2 0.23 0.15 0.2 0.2 RET Retama 0.18 0.21 0.25 0.25 NA 0.12 0.12 0.25 NA 0.25 RP Remington 0.18 0.21 0.24 0.24 NA 0.21 0.25 0.25 NA 0.25 RUI Ruidoso 0.19 0.22 0.25 0.25 NA 0.22 0.25 0.25 NA NA SA Santa Anita 0.1543 0.2268 0.2368 0.2368 NA 0.18 0.2368 0.2368 0.14 0.2368 SAR Saratoga 0.16 0.185 0.24 0.24 NA 0.185 0.24 0.24 0.15 0.15 SRP SunRay Park 0.19 0.22 0.25 0.25 NA 0.22 0.25 0.25 NA NA SUF Suffolk 0.19 0.26 0.26 0.26 NA 0.26 0.26 0.26 NA 0.26 SUN Sunland 0.19 0.21 0.25 0.25 NA 0.21 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 TAM Tampa Bay Downs 0.17 0.205 0.259 0.259 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.15 0.18 TDN Thistledown 0.18 0.225 0.225 0.225 NA 0.225 0.225 0.225 NA 0.225 TP Turfway 0.175 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.14 0.22 NA TUP Turf Paradise 0.2075 0.2175 0.2575 0.2575 NA 0.2175 0.2575 0.2575 0.15 0.2575 WO Woodbine 0.1495 0.205 0.25 0.263 0.15 0.205 0.263 0.25 NA 0.25 WRD Will Rogers Downs 0.18 0.21 0.24 0.24 NA 0.21 0.25 0.25 NA NA ZIA Zia Park 0.19 0.22 0.25 0.25 NA 0.22 0.25 0.25 NA
-
08-11-17 08:08 AM #2320
ABBR TRACK WPS EXA TRI SPR HI5 DD PICK3 PICK4 PICK5 PICK6 ALB Albuquerque 0.19 0.25 0.25 0.25 NA 0.25 0.25 0.25 NA NA AP Arlington 0.17 0.205 0.25 0.25 0.15 0.205 0.25 0.25 0.15 0.15 AQU Aqueduct 0.16 0.185 0.24 0.24 NA 0.185 0.24 0.24 0.15 0.15 ARP Arapahoe 0.185 0.23 0.24 0.24 NA 0.23 0.24 0.24 NA 0.24 ASD Assiniboia 0.19 0.26 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.26 0.29 0.15 NA NA ATL Atlantic City 0.17 0.19 0.25 0.25 NA 0.19 0.25 0.25 NA 0.25 BEL Belmont 0.16 0.185 0.24 0.24 NA 0.185 0.24 0.24 0.15 0.15 BEU Beulah 0.18 0.225 0.225 0.225 NA 0.225 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 CBY Canterbury 0.17 0.23 0.23 0.23 NA 0.23 0.14 0.14 NA 0.23 CD Churchill Downs 0.175 0.22 0.22 0.22 NA 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 CNL Colonial Downs 0.18 0.22 0.22 0.22 NA 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 CRC Calder 0.18 0.21 0.27 0.27 0.19 0.21 0.27 0.27 0.12 0.27 CT Charles Town 0.1725 0.19 0.22 0.22 NA 0.19 0.22 0.22 NA 0.22 DED Delta Downs 0.17 0.205 0.25 0.25 NA 0.205 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 DEL Delaware 0.17 0.19 0.25 0.25 NA 0.19 0.25 0.25 0.15 NA DMR Del Mar 0.1543 0.2267 0.2368 0.2368 NA 0.18 0.2368 0.2368 0.14 0.2368 ELP Ellis Park 0.175 0.22 0.22 0.22 NA 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 EMD Emerald Downs 0.16 0.221 0.221 0.221 NA 0.221 0.221 0.221 0.221 NA EVD Evangeline 0.17 0.205 0.25 0.25 NA 0.205 0.25 0.25 NA NA FE Fort Erie 0.1695 0.262 0.282 0.262 NA 0.262 0.262 0.173 0.262 0.262 FG Fair Grounds 0.17 0.205 0.25 0.25 NA 0.205 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 FL Finger Lakes 0.18 0.2 0.25 0.25 NA 0.2 0.25 0.25 NA 0.25 FMT Fair Meadows 0.18 0.21 0.24 0.24 NA 0.21 0.24 NA NA NA FON Fonner Park 0.18 0.2 0.25 0.25 NA 0.2 0.2 0.25 NA NA FP Fairmount Park 0.17 0.205 0.25 0.25 NA 0.205 0.25 NA NA NA FPX Fairplex 0.1677 0.2402 0.2502 0.2502 NA 0.2402 0.2502 0.2502 0.14 0.2502 GG Golden Gate 0.1543 0.2268 0.2368 0.2368 NA 0.2268 0.2368 0.2368 0.14 0.2368 GP Gulfstream 0.17 0.2 0.26 0.26 0.15 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.15 0.2 HAS Hastings 0.15 0.218 0.273 0.263 NA 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 NA HAW Hawthorne 0.17 0.205 0.25 0.25 0.2 0.205 0.25 0.25 0.14 0.2 HOU Sam Houston 0.18 0.21 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 NA IND Indiana 0.18 0.215 0.215 0.215 NA 0.215 0.215 0.215 NA 0.215 KD Kentucky Downs 0.16 0.1825 0.19 0.19 NA 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.14 0.19 KEE Keeneland 0.16 0.19 0.19 0.19 NA 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 LA Los Alamitos 0.1763 0.2288 0.2288 0.2288 NA 0.2288 0.2288 0.2288 NA 0.2288 LAD Louisiana Downs 0.17 0.205 0.25 0.25 NA 0.205 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 LRL Laurel 0.18 0.21 0.2575 0.2575 0.18 0.21 0.2575 0.2575 0.18 0.2575 LS Lone Star 0.18 0.21 0.25 0.25 NA 0.21 0.25 0.25 0.12 0.12 MNR Mountaineer 0.1725 0.19 0.25 0.25 NA 0.19 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 MTH Monmouth 0.17 0.19 0.25 0.25 NA 0.19 0.25 0.15 0.15 0.2 NP Northlands 0.145 0.248 0.248 0.248 NA 0.248 0.248 0.248 0.1 0.248 OP Oaklawn 0.17 0.21 0.21 0.21 NA 0.21 0.21 0.21 NA 0.21 PEN Penn National 0.17 0.2 0.31 0.3 NA 0.2 0.25 0.25 0.25 NA PHA Philadelphia 0.17 0.2 0.3 0.3 NA 0.2 0.26 0.26 NA 0.26 PID Presque Isle 0.17 0.2 0.25 0.25 NA 0.2 0.23 0.23 NA 0.23 PIM Pimlico 0.18 0.21 0.2575 0.2575 NA 0.21 0.2575 0.2575 0.18 NA PM Portland Meadows 0.18 0.21 0.22 0.22 NA 0.21 0.22 0.14 0.15 0.22 PRM Prairie Meadows 0.17 0.2 0.23 0.2 NA 0.2 0.23 0.15 0.2 0.2 RET Retama 0.18 0.21 0.25 0.25 NA 0.12 0.12 0.25 NA 0.25 RP Remington 0.18 0.21 0.24 0.24 NA 0.21 0.25 0.25 NA 0.25 RUI Ruidoso 0.19 0.22 0.25 0.25 NA 0.22 0.25 0.25 NA NA SA Santa Anita 0.1543 0.2268 0.2368 0.2368 NA 0.18 0.2368 0.2368 0.14 0.2368 SAR Saratoga 0.16 0.185 0.24 0.24 NA 0.185 0.24 0.24 0.15 0.15 SRP SunRay Park 0.19 0.22 0.25 0.25 NA 0.22 0.25 0.25 NA NA SUF Suffolk 0.19 0.26 0.26 0.26 NA 0.26 0.26 0.26 NA 0.26 SUN Sunland 0.19 0.21 0.25 0.25 NA 0.21 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 TAM Tampa Bay Downs 0.17 0.205 0.259 0.259 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.15 0.18 TDN Thistledown 0.18 0.225 0.225 0.225 NA 0.225 0.225 0.225 NA 0.225 TP Turfway 0.175 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.14 0.22 NA TUP Turf Paradise 0.2075 0.2175 0.2575 0.2575 NA 0.2175 0.2575 0.2575 0.15 0.2575 WO Woodbine 0.1495 0.205 0.25 0.263 0.15 0.205 0.263 0.25 NA 0.25 WRD Will Rogers Downs 0.18 0.21 0.24 0.24 NA 0.21 0.25 0.25 NA NA ZIA Zia Park 0.19 0.22 0.25 0.25 NA 0.22 0.25 0.25 NA NA
-
08-11-17 09:10 AM #2321
The difference between playing tri's at Keenland or either dump in Pennsylvania is 12% LOL.
So you bet 200 a day in handle in tri's 5 days a week, times 52 weeks a year is 52k.
12% of 52k is 6240.00
The takeout does make a difference doesn't it Easy.
-
08-12-17 05:07 AM #2322
Yeah no doubt. Pays to shop around and find the best value. Originally Posted by str
-
08-12-17 11:18 AM #2323
A big thank you to Easy Rider 66 for posting the takeout rate for every track.
I hope everybody reads that and avoids the higher takeouts and takes advantage of the lesser ones.
It will really save you money in the long run.
And if nothing else, please don't spend your money at the Pennsylvania tracks.
A ridiculous over charge going on there.
-
08-14-17 09:23 AM #2324
hey str
eddie gaudet ?? remember seeing his name over the years and think he was a md guy.. did you know him??
there's a horse shipping to saratoga from lrl (works there) and has works over the training track at saratoga also.. trained by lacey gaudet and attracts one of the ortiz brothers to ride.. coming off a 13 month layoff and showed decent talent in her 5 career races..she's 3/11 +180 day layoff and this is her first time running this horse..another category she's excellent with.. Oh no.. this was supposed to be a did you know this trainer question lol.. all seriousness,not a handicapping question cause you'd have to look at the pp's in spite of my description
it's #3 overanalyze R5Last edited by JBEX; 08-14-17 at 10:33 AM.
-
08-14-17 01:28 PM #2325
OMG. I know the entire Gaudet family very well. Originally Posted by JBEX
Eddie is a very good friend as is his wife and all her sisters.
We can talk about that anytime.
Here is the deal with that horse.
They like shipping to run well.
They would never consider running this horse there off 13 months without a good reason.
Would not have that rider without a solid story.
No form to see but if the horse fits... hard to look past in all probability.
-
08-14-17 01:57 PM #2326
P.S. She is real good with 180+ days because that is how she was taught. Originally Posted by str
Eddie/Linda had them ready off a year if the horse was capable of being ready.
More than once.
An underrated horseman /Horsewoman family that I would consider an excellent outfit.
No frills, just hard work and solid horsemanship.
Have not seen Lacy since she was about 2 or 3 years old but rest assured she learned from top teachers.
-
08-14-17 04:32 PM #2327
Just saw that this horse ran terrible.. Originally Posted by JBEX
Also saw that she has a horse in the last race today at Saratoga.
# 4 Eucalyptus.
No form, so no clue what the horse looks like but it is hard to believe that they ship from Md. to Saratoga with 2 horses with no chance.
It is common that if you are running one horse on the van, why not run 2 horses.
Especially the Gaudets.
They ship their own horses.
Not needing to pay for a van service.
Not so typical.
Take a look and you tell me.
Take a 2nd look if the 1st one doesn't do it for you. Lol.Last edited by str; 08-14-17 at 04:39 PM.
-
08-14-17 05:09 PM #2328
Sir STR, have a question about optional claiming races. If a horse seems to be doing well and seems to fit at a certain class level, he is entered in an optional claiming race. Why does the owner or trainer willing to put him up for a possible claim?
-
08-14-17 05:37 PM #2329
Originally Posted by str
yes I always think along those lines that one is more well meant than the other..making the trip anyway why not take another shot.. interesting with these two is they both came off lengthy layoffs and she thought enough of them to ship up north.. the fact that irad didn't have a mount in the last race and wasn't riding the other probably a sign the earlier one was better intended.. interesting I was just watching a replay of caton bredar and eucalyptus was her paddock pick...
had a good trip and no excuse.. thanks for the info though.. always good to know that she's from a talented family and maybe catch something good with her down the road.. amazing you haven't seen her since she was a baby.. nice to see the family passing the torch to the next-generation
-
08-14-17 06:43 PM #2330
There is no doubt that one of these was well intended. Did watch the replays and both horses were done before a 1/2 mile. It was obvious. That said, something went wrong. But.. that is the game. Certainly happened to me more than once. Originally Posted by JBEX
Knowing Eddie Gaudet is and was a privilege. One of a kind guy. So many race trackers are like cartoon characters. You just cant make it up.
I would love to share some stories about Eddie back in the day over a beer. But it would end up being a six pack. And you would laugh your ass off.
He was the biggest "character" on the backside. Everyone that was around then would attest to that.
Sadly, Eddie is now I guess, in at least his 80's and has Alzheimer's. Having run into and spending a few minutes with his wife Linda a couple of months ago, she said that he actually has had it for over a decade but B.S'ed his way through for years. Her saying that made me laugh when I wanted to cry. But that was and is Eddie. The life of the party. Totally full of it but everyone wanted to hear just one more story from him.
Man, what a party it was.
Sorry the horses did not run well .
-
08-14-17 07:33 PM #2331
Originally Posted by str
sounds like you have some fond memories of him and sorry to hear about the alzheimers.says a lot about him that he wouldn't want to burden others when that is such
a disabling condition..sure I would get a kick out of your stories relating to him and if you want to tell one or two love to hear them.. think I remember seeing his wife listed as a trainer but not sure if that's correct
so it sounds like seeing john salzman jr or lacey gaudet as the trainer over the long haul is a good thing..if you like the horse for any reason it's a plus..as far as today it just didn't work and as you said that happens ..feel good I brought back some good memories for you of richard small and eddie ..sound like really good guys
and also sagamore had another winner in a starter allowance up there today..same trainer and the horse has won 3 in a row now..has only 4 career starts..as you said they seem like savvy players in this game
-
08-15-17 07:10 AM #2332
I concur on the pa. Tracks. . . Don't even look at them . Originally Posted by str
A big thank you to Easy Rider 66 for posting the takeout rate for every track.
I hope everybody reads that and avoids the higher takeouts and takes advantage of the lesser ones.
It will really save you money in the long run.
And if nothing else, please don't spend your money at the Pennsylvania tracks.
A ridiculous over charge going on there.
-
08-15-17 08:47 AM #2333
The answer to takeout is tossout...
Not the track, but enough horses so that the playing field is always positive. One great advantage of horse racing. Never a need to bet into a negative playing field.
There's also a flipside to the takeout question. A small track with a higher takeout will not attract as many sharp players. Exotic payouts can be interesting in such places, and also easier to win because the racing is not as competitive. So a 3/2 fave, with two horses in the 4/1 range and the rest of the field in or near double digits sets up nicely for a cold trifecta/superfecta formula. Do that in NY and players are all over it. Not so much at a small track, and it makes the takeout less important.
Anyway, good to see the best thread on the internet is still very much alive. I have a question about the Del Mar surface. If there is one track in the country that disrespects players, in my opinion, it is Del Mar. It seems that each year they change the surface. This time they did it because of the Breeders Cup later in the year, which makes it a pretty big deal to understand what is going on there. Already the news is out that horses with a previous race over the surface have a big advantage. Desormeaux (the trainer) pointed that out. So one question I have is how likely that is to last through the Breeders Cup. The problem is that I haven't been able to identify what exactly has changed. The angle of the slope is much sharper, and they have brought in Santa Anita dirt, but don't tell that to horses that have raced over the SA surface. If this was NY racing the analysts would be all over it, but not so in California. So I'll just start with what I can see, and that is the slope. Does a sharper angle of the slope have an effect on how the horses handle the track? But I would have to tie that into what Desormeaux said, and the observation that the second time over the track the horse has adjusted. What would be the reason for that?
-
08-15-17 12:42 PM #2334
The most interesting question re: Arrogate. 5 horse field in the San Diego & he finishes 4th? The best horse in the world? The place and show payouts were hysterical Originally Posted by Thunderground
As for surface, Thunderground, you hit on an absolutely CRUCIAL handicapping angle that many are very aware of but ignore all too often: performance on that same track when running back. This angle goes hand in hand with form, then I'd say pace just because jockeys usually can counter pace a bit if the horse isn't totally one dimensional.
I'll be at the Breeders Cup in November at Del Mar and am trying to get info on this. I've had great BC before, but it is obviously a bear to deal with given all the great horses that ship, and if you have a random track and surface like this man that seems like a Saratoga set up aka graveyard ...
-
08-15-17 07:50 PM #2335
Let's hope for a good BC. I had a good one last year as well, but have stayed away from Del Mar this meet, because of the surface. Str has taught me a lot about the grading and the raking, and the depth of the surface, so I hope it's something related to that...
Love that about horse racing. On any given day the best horse in the world may not show up.
Here's a look at the slope for 2017 (left) and 2016 (right):
-
08-16-17 07:47 AM #2336
Over the years, with entries becoming harder and harder to come by, the racing secretary's have been forced to change the condition book. Originally Posted by mrginandtonic
What they have done is combine a 2 other than or 3 other than or something like that, with a 40k claiming race by re righting the conditions to accommodate both levels or declensions as I call them. It was becoming harder and harder to fill the open 40k spot or 30k or 25k or whatever on it's own. This is especially true on the dirt. Not so much on turf. They tried to keep the level of allowance fairly "on a par" with the level of claiming price. By combining the races, it helped the claimers have a spot to run. It was getting to the point that those races just could not fill on there own. The claimers just could not run as often as they wanted to.
I have to think that most horses in for a tag are horses that actually won that condition ( like 2 allowance races or whatever) at some point earlier in their career but are not stakes grade horses or 4 other than or condition allowance types, so they need a claiming level. When they first started doing this, IMO the claimer had an edge over the allowance horses because ( especially in the spring of each year) they were older and had already won that condition.
It seems to me that at places like Belmont or NY tracks and probably Cal. as well, the allowance horses, many of which still have solid chances of becoming stakes horses, have somewhat of an edge. But in places like Md. or NJ for instance, the older claimers probably have an edge. This is all rule of thumb of course. Each race will dictate how soft or tough a spot it is. That said, I tend to give the horses in for a tag a longer look if I do not see lots of quality in the allowance horses. Usually you can get a decent price on them. Keep an eye on that.
So I think that what you are seeing is pretty much what I described. I don't see any benefit to running a 2 other than in an optional 2 other than for a tag, unless there is a weight break of some sort. But if a trainer would do that, it seems to me that they do not feel the horse can do much more winning after that condition in allowance company.
Let me know if this is not the case.
Hope this helps.
-
08-16-17 08:05 AM #2337
Q. sounds like you have some fond memories of him Originally Posted by JBEX
A. I sure do JBEX.
Q. think I remember seeing his wife listed as a trainer but not sure if that's correct
A. That is correct. Linda is his wife of 40+ years. When it was time to switch, Linda became the listed trainer. Recently, they have gone into Eddie's and Linda's daughters name apparently.
Q. so it sounds like seeing john salzman jr or lacey gaudet as the trainer over the long haul is a good thing..if you like the horse for any reason it's a plus..as far as today it just didn't work and as you said that happens
A. Yes. They both learned from solid people.
Q. feel good I brought back some good memories for you of richard small and eddie ..sound like really good guys
A. I cannot thank you enough. Having met guys like that in my late teens and early 20's helped me understand some of what life is all about. In that, while we are all different, we are all very much similar, and more so than that, we can look and act totally different, and yet have the same feelings and goals in life . Those guys were aces in my book. It was an honor to know them.
Q. and also sagamore had another winner in a starter allowance up there today..same trainer and the horse has won 3 in a row now..has only 4 career starts..as you said they seem like savvy players in this game
A. Like you said, the cats out of the bag now. If that 20 dollar horse earlier in the meet ran today she would be 9-2 or less.
Thanks JBEX.
-
08-16-17 08:06 AM #2338
More to come asap.
-
08-16-17 01:12 PM #2339
It's been awhile. Great to hear from you Thunderground ! Originally Posted by Thunderground
The answer to takeout is tossout... Not the track, but enough horses so that the playing field is always positive. One great advantage of horse racing. Never a need to bet into a negative playing field.
There's also a flipside to the takeout question. A small track with a higher takeout will not attract as many sharp players. Exotic payouts can be interesting in such places, and also easier to win because the racing is not as competitive. So a 3/2 fave, with two horses in the 4/1 range and the rest of the field in or near double digits sets up nicely for a cold trifecta/superfecta formula. Do that in NY and players are all over it. Not so much at a small track, and it makes the takeout less important.
Anyway, good to see the best thread on the internet is still very much alive. I have a question about the Del Mar surface. If there is one track in the country that disrespects players, in my opinion, it is Del Mar. It seems that each year they change the surface. This time they did it because of the Breeders Cup later in the year, which makes it a pretty big deal to understand what is going on there. Already the news is out that horses with a previous race over the surface have a big advantage. Desormeaux (the trainer) pointed that out. So one question I have is how likely that is to last through the Breeders Cup. The problem is that I haven't been able to identify what exactly has changed. The angle of the slope is much sharper, and they have brought in Santa Anita dirt, but don't tell that to horses that have raced over the SA surface. If this was NY racing the analysts would be all over it, but not so in California. So I'll just start with what I can see, and that is the slope. Does a sharper angle of the slope have an effect on how the horses handle the track? But I would have to tie that into what Desormeaux said, and the observation that the second time over the track the horse has adjusted. What would be the reason for that?
Q. I have a question about the Del Mar surface. If there is one track in the country that disrespects players, in my opinion, it is Del Mar. It seems that each year they change the surface. This time they did it because of the Breeders Cup later in the year, which makes it a pretty big deal to understand what is going on there. Already the news is out that horses with a previous race over the surface have a big advantage. Desormeaux (the trainer) pointed that out. So one question I have is how likely that is to last through the Breeders Cup.The problem is that I haven't been able to identify what exactly has changed. The angle of the slope is much sharper, and they have brought in Santa Anita dirt, but don't tell that to horses that have raced over the SA surface.
A. I doubt they will change it again for a while. The cost of doing what they are doing is in the millions.
If I followed this track I would make darn sure that it was indeed the track that is tiring and therefore the entire surface and not just the inside where speed typically goes. Or on days it is graded up the hill, deeper outside and not as much inside. I have talked about this before. ( maybe thread search grade under the rail or grade or look under the rail. Something like that.)
I mention this because every year in late Oct. and I have to assume it still goes on, Laurel added sand to winterize the track. Easy to spot, it will be a huge pile of sand west of the paddock either in the parking area far away (100 yards) or towards the back of the mile chute or at the 1/2 mile pole by the track kitchen( just before the far turn). If you see the pile ( might be able to see it as they gallop out if it's past the paddock) the inside will become deep and the outside is the place to be for both speed , position and closers as the pile lessens in size. Friday and Sat. are the possible exceptions as they grade the track with the most movement of dirt outwards on Friday typically or Sat. for sure( gotta watch the weather). Can't grade mud. They typically add the sand on the dark days, thus the most dramatic results are mid week towards Friday and Sat.
That said, Delaware Park was notorious and probably still is for needing a race over the track. A different texture and mix of dirt than Pimlico used to be. The advantage was HUGE for the horse with a race over the surface or who had trained there for several weeks before the others shipped in.
So, lets look for the inside vs. the outside there for now.
As time goes on, this should subside. As the dirt becomes more mixed in the way the superintendent wants it. Early on it's kind of like making cinnamon sugar. When you first mix it, it doesn't mix well. You really have to mix it a lot, or in this case, harrow it and grade it a lot to get it where they want it. I would look for this to become more fair as time goes on. That is a guess though because I do not know the sand they have in Calif. I do know that their soils stink out there.
Having the races in Calif. is an edge for Cal. horses going in so this would only add to it IMO if it does not correct itself.
Q. So I'll just start with what I can see, and that is the slope. Does a sharper angle of the slope have an effect on how the horses handle the track?
A. Yes. A sharper angle will hinder a very big horse. It will look like they have lost momentum if they are making a run into the turn. This happens to all types of horses but Easy Goer comes to mind. I know that people say sharper turns, and yes, most turns are sharper than Belmont but the pitch goes hand and hand with that IMO. But a sharper pitch also has the surface sliding towards the rail faster than it used to.
Q. But I would have to tie that into what Desormeaux said, and the observation that the second time over the track the horse has adjusted. What would be the reason for that?
A. The horses have adjusted to the content and depth of the surface which feels deeper and more tiring. Most do not need to adjust to the slope especially when it clones that of Santa Anita where they are used to running. The two are not related but I would see where they might seem to be. Don't tie them together.Last edited by str; 08-16-17 at 01:17 PM.
-
08-16-17 01:32 PM #2340
Q. The most interesting question re: Arrogate. 5 horse field in the San Diego & he finishes 4th? The best horse in the world? The place and show payouts were hysterical Originally Posted by StackinGreen
The most interesting question re: Arrogate. 5 horse field in the San Diego & he finishes 4th? The best horse in the world? The place and show payouts were hysterical
As for surface, Thunderground, you hit on an absolutely CRUCIAL handicapping angle that many are very aware of but ignore all too often: performance on that same track when running back. This angle goes hand in hand with form, then I'd say pace just because jockeys usually can counter pace a bit if the horse isn't totally one dimensional.
I'll be at the Breeders Cup in November at Del Mar and am trying to get info on this. I've had great BC before, but it is obviously a bear to deal with given all the great horses that ship, and if you have a random track and surface like this man that seems like a Saratoga set up aka graveyard ...
A. I talked about this on this page or the last one. Right after he ran terribly. Since then he was worked 7/8ths of a mile along with 2 other works. That 7/8ths work reassures me that I was correct in what I said. He would not have done that if he was fully fit. I feel very confident about my answer after seeing that. Post 2302 .
Q. I'll be at the Breeders Cup in November at Del Mar and am trying to get info on this. I've had great BC before, but it is obviously a bear to deal with given all the great horses that ship, and if you have a random track and surface like this man that seems like a Saratoga set up aka graveyard ...[/QUOTE]
A. Make sure you saw my answers to Thunderground and keep an eye on it. Either way, it is still a big advantage for those out west already. A way bigger advantage if the surface stays an issue.
Hope you enjoy yourself being there Stackin .
What a great day. I hope you cash early and often.
-
08-16-17 01:35 PM #2341
" Str has taught me a lot about the grading and the raking, and the depth of the surface, so I hope it's something related to that... Originally Posted by Thunderground
Let's hope for a good BC. I had a good one last year as well, but have stayed away from Del Mar this meet, because of the surface. Str has taught me a lot about the grading and the raking, and the depth of the surface, so I hope it's something related to that...
Love that about horse racing. On any given day the best horse in the world may not show up.
Here's a look at the slope for 2017 (left) and 2016 (right):
A. As you have read, it sure is. No doubt about it. You nailed it !
-
08-16-17 04:07 PM #2342
Thanks str. Much appreciated as always. They brought in the superintendent from Santa Anita for the new surface, so my thinking is that they knew this would happen, but timed it to be in normal shape for the Breeders Cup. I can wait for the soil to get all mixed in, and will stay away rather than monitor that process. What do you think is a reasonable time frame for that mixing of soil?
Last edited by Thunderground; 08-16-17 at 04:21 PM.
-
08-16-17 11:27 PM #2343
Thank you for your explanation. However, I think that I didn't make my question clear. The trainer enters the horse in an optional claiming race which means he/she doesn't have to make the horse available for claim, yet he/she does even though the form looks fine on paper. Do you think that he/she knows that there is something wrong with horse and he/she wants to get rid of the horse. Thanks again. I hope my question makes sense. Originally Posted by str
-
08-17-17 08:21 AM #2344
If the horse is through the condition it has to be put up in for a claiming tag.. what I'm not sure about is if the horse is still eligible for the condition can it be put up for a tag.. my guess would be yes but really not sure Originally Posted by mrginandtonic
-
08-17-17 09:17 AM #2345
hey str
just letting you know that "the big fundamental" running in the 3rd at the spa.. first time over the strip off a 6 week layoff came in 3rd by less than 2 lengths on a clear lead.. was the even money favorite and horse that finished 2nd also running here.. blinkers come off and back in 25 days today..just giving you some background as we've been following a bit.. he's 9-5 and will probably be fav again today even though the other finished ahead of him.. not interested in betting him
Reply With Quote
