[JBEX]

Interesting angles. good to know and thanks for sharing. always learning.

np mrginandtonic..ask anytime

[JBEX]

there are times when I will play decent dirt form in these races..there are very specific types of sprint running lines I'm looking for and they don't come up often..outside of these exceptions I won't play obvious good dirt form in these races..I consider an obvious troubled trip the same as decent dirt form
in these situations also

[brock]

I read if the past performances says a horse ran 6 furlongs at mountaineer with a time of 110:00 with a track variant of 10
on 7/2/17. On 7/8/17 another horse ran 6 furlongs at mountaineer with a time of 111:00 and a track variant of 20. Lets say these two horses are in the same race two weeks later 7/22/17. I have for ever track variant different would mean a length
so the horse that ran on 7/8 should beat the horse that ran on 7/2 by 5 lengths if they run there same race. A difference of 1 track variant means 1/5 of a length. Is this close?

[str]

I read if the past performances says a horse ran 6 furlongs at mountaineer with a time of 110:00 with a track variant of 10
on 7/2/17. On 7/8/17 another horse ran 6 furlongs at mountaineer with a time of 111:00 and a track variant of 20. Lets say these two horses are in the same race two weeks later 7/22/17. I have for ever track variant different would mean a length
so the horse that ran on 7/8 should beat the horse that ran on 7/2 by 5 lengths if they run there same race. A difference of 1 track variant means 1/5 of a length. Is this close?

Yes. I think you have it.

Just remember that the variant is one of many pieces to the puzzle.

My advise would be to certainly consider it, but use the other pieces as well.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Thx STR. Looks like times have changed quite a bit in the horse game when it comes to rest. Makes sense that the race after the quick turnaround might be the one to avoid. Never thought of that. Have a safe 4th.

STR had a race today at Saratoga where this applied. Race 9 the #5 Gypsum Johnny. Sent off as the 7/2 favorite. On his previous 2 races he ran July 2nd and they wheeled him back July 7th. He won that July 7th race. Today he ran and faded to 5th. Remembered what you said and eliminated him. Will keep looking for this set up. Thx.

[mrginandtonic]

Hi Sir STR and actually all the other cappers too, I have a general question about Saratoga. This track has been said that it is a graveyard for favorites. Can anyone explain to why that is? How is this track different from all the other major tracks in the US? I know there were times some big name horses lost. But is there something in Saratoga that contributed to their losses as the heavy favorite. Thank you all in advance.

[str]

STR had a race today at Saratoga where this applied. Race 9 the #5 Gypsum Johnny. Sent off as the 7/2 favorite. On his previous 2 races he ran July 2nd and they wheeled him back July 7th. He won that July 7th race. Today he ran and faded to 5th. Remembered what you said and eliminated him. Will keep looking for this set up. Thx.

Glad it helped.

Like anything, nothing is sure fire but the thought process makes sense and works much more than it does not.

[str]

Hi Sir STR and actually all the other cappers too, I have a general question about Saratoga. This track has been said that it is a graveyard for favorites. Can anyone explain to why that is? How is this track different from all the other major tracks in the US? I know there were times some big name horses lost. But is there something in Saratoga that contributed to their losses as the heavy favorite. Thank you all in advance.

Mr. G and T, I think the reason that Saratoga is called that is because every trainer wants to win there more than anywhere else during the year. Trainers do not enter just to enter or run for the hell of it, EVERY entry has been pointed towards that race with every effort to have the horse at it's peak.
When I look at races there, whereas at many tracks you can legitimately throw out 5 or 6 of the 9 horses in a race, at Saratoga, you might only be able to throw out 3 or 4.
One thing I have always done is look back briefly at the winner to see what I might have missed if I was wrong. At Saratoga, you can go back and look at the winner and make a case for it, almost every time.

Owners are desperate to win there and trainers are desperate to win on that stage because everyone is watching. With that much competition within each race, favorites are more vulnerable there than anywhere else IMO.

So, I think that is why they call it that. And it didn't hurt that Secretariat got beat twice by Jerkens there as well. Onion and Prove Out were not supposed to win those races, but it's Saratoga, and only a premium effort gets you to the winners circle.

That's my take.

[mrginandtonic]

Mr. G and T, I think the reason that Saratoga is called that is because every trainer wants to win there more than anywhere else during the year. Trainers do not enter just to enter or run for the hell of it, EVERY entry has been pointed towards that race with every effort to have the horse at it's peak.
When I look at races there, whereas at many tracks you can legitimately throw out 5 or 6 of the 9 horses in a race, at Saratoga, you might only be able to throw out 3 or 4.
One thing I have always done is look back briefly at the winner to see what I might have missed if I was wrong. At Saratoga, you can go back and look at the winner and make a case for it, almost every time.

Owners are desperate to win there and trainers are desperate to win on that stage because everyone is watching. With that much competition within each race, favorites are more vulnerable there than anywhere else IMO.

So, I think that is why they call it that. And it didn't hurt that Secretariat got beat twice by Jerkens there as well. Onion and Prove Out were not supposed to win those races, but it's Saratoga, and only a premium effort gets you to the winners circle.

That's my take.

Thank you Sir STR for your insight. My other question would be why would the trainers and owners want to win at Spa so badly? Is it anymore prestigious than other track? I googled about this subject, it was interesting to note where that word "Upset" came from in horse racing. I do noticed one thing is that Spa usually has a bigger field in their races and like you said the horses entered are usually very competitive with each other.

[str]

Thank you Sir STR for your insight. My other question would be why would the trainers and owners want to win at Spa so badly? Is it anymore prestigious than other track? I googled about this subject, it was interesting to note where that word "Upset" came from in horse racing. I do noticed one thing is that Spa usually has a bigger field in their races and like you said the horses entered are usually very competitive with each other.

Q. My other question would be why would the trainers and owners want to win at Spa so badly? Is it anymore prestigious than other track?

A. Yes. Very much so.

Q. I do noticed one thing is that Spa usually has a bigger field in their races and like you said the horses entered are usually very competitive with each other.

A. You are right . A look at today's Jim Dandy finds the derby winner in his first start back. Anywhere else or anytime else and the horse would land in a soft spot, be odds on and be able to get a win streak going while only being 80-90% . Not at Saratoga. He gets the Preakness winner.

That is what winning at Saratoga is. Always tough.

Speaking of that race, it will be interesting to see what happens to Always Dreaming if a horse gets into his right eye and pins him as they go into the far turn. Last time that happened he folded. Things might be best if he is clear OR a speed horse clears him and he shifts out to the two path like in the Derby. From past races it seems best if he can avoid being pinned and that right eye covered up.

[mrginandtonic]

Q. My other question would be why would the trainers and owners want to win at Spa so badly? Is it anymore prestigious than other track?

A. Yes. Very much so.

Q. I do noticed one thing is that Spa usually has a bigger field in their races and like you said the horses entered are usually very competitive with each other.

A. You are right . A look at today's Jim Dandy finds the derby winner in his first start back. Anywhere else or anytime else and the horse would land in a soft spot, be odds on and be able to get a win streak going while only being 80-90% . Not at Saratoga. He gets the Preakness winner.

That is what winning at Saratoga is. Always tough.

Speaking of that race, it will be interesting to see what happens to Always Dreaming if a horse gets into his right eye and pins him as they go into the far turn. Last time that happened he folded. Things might be best if he is clear OR a speed horse clears him and he shifts out to the two path like in the Derby. From past races it seems best if he can avoid being pinned and that right eye covered up.

Thanks STR, as always.

Regarding the Jim Dandy, the way I see this race in my head is that the 4- Pavel will be right at him and outside of him. With the 2- Cloud Computing close behind. So I think Always Dreaming will be stuck inside and very likely press by the 4 to his right. Will Velasquez pull him to the outside?? Possible, but I think it will be difficult with the 2 and 3 closely behind. With 1 and 4 pressing in the in front , that's why I really like the 5- Good Samaritan closing on them. At least that is how this race unfolds for me. GL today if you play.

[str]

Thanks STR, as always.

Regarding the Jim Dandy, the way I see this race in my head is that the 4- Pavel will be right at him and outside of him. With the 2- Cloud Computing close behind. So I think Always Dreaming will be stuck inside and very likely press by the 4 to his right. Will Velasquez pull him to the outside?? Possible, but I think it will be difficult with the 2 and 3 closely behind. With 1 and 4 pressing in the in front , that's why I really like the 5- Good Samaritan closing on them. At least that is how this race unfolds for me. GL today if you play.

This was a great call Mr. G and T !

I really like how you try and see the race before it runs.

And always nice to try and beat the big names this time of year.

Well played !!

[mrginandtonic]

Thank you sir. I guess everyone has their own style. I tried watching replays before, but I find it very hard cuz a lot of time I don't the see the little things that you guys have mention before. I relied a lot on the info that is posted in the form and I tried to create the Race in my head. And when I see the horse that I thought it should run well but didn't I tried see what happened and put it in my notes.

As always, it is a pleasure learning from you and all the other people here.

[JBEX]

hey str

sagamore (same trainer de paz) has a debut horse R5 saratoga.. this one a kee sept sale 2yo filly that cost 350k..

trainer stats...

+2017 60 33% 57% +1.24
+1st time str 29 31% 45% +0.63
+Debut MdnSpWt 21 33% 43% +0.77
+Maiden Sp Wt 41 32% 49% +1.16


+JKYw/ Trn L60 8 50% 50% +7.53



#8 scary not scared

[JBEX]

hey str

sagamore (same trainer de paz) has a debut horse R5 saratoga.. this one a kee sept sale 2yo filly that cost 350k..

trainer stats...

+2017 60 33% 57% +1.24
+1st time str 29 31% 45% +0.63
+Debut MdnSpWt 21 33% 43% +0.77
+Maiden Sp Wt 41 32% 49% +1.16


+JKYw/ Trn L60 8 50% 50% +7.53



#8 scary not scared

also sire and dam sire above average win early.. dam a stakes winner and this one first to race from her

[str]

Thank you sir. I guess everyone has their own style. I tried watching replays before, but I find it very hard cuz a lot of time I don't the see the little things that you guys have mention before. I relied a lot on the info that is posted in the form and I tried to create the Race in my head. And when I see the horse that I thought it should run well but didn't I tried see what happened and put it in my notes.

As always, it is a pleasure learning from you and all the other people here.

Piecing the race together in my head from looking at the form and post positions is how I have done things seemingly forever.

It doesn't always work out but it works often enough for me.

And it looks like for you as well.

Great job.

[str]

also sire and dam sire above average win early.. dam a stakes winner and this one first to race from her

A lot to like.

I did see 7-2 morning line which tempers some of the excitement.

Normally I would like the box(outside post) but do make sure the track is playing fair and not favoring the inside.

[JBEX]

A lot to like.

I did see 7-2 morning line which tempers some of the excitement.

Normally I would like the box(outside post) but do make sure the track is playing fair and not favoring the inside.

this guy's no secret anymore.. I'm guessing odds will be below ml.. 1st dirt sprint of the day so no hints to how track's playing

[JBEX]

hey str

like a horse at saratoga tomorrow shipping from laurel trained by john salzman jr.. thought I remember seeing that name for a long time in the form.. admittedly looked it up and saw his father john sr and family involved in racing for a long time which I'm sure you know.. did you know father or son when you were training?

[str]

hey str

like a horse at saratoga tomorrow shipping from laurel trained by john salzman jr.. thought I remember seeing that name for a long time in the form.. admittedly looked it up and saw his father john sr and family involved in racing for a long time which I'm sure you know.. did you know father or son when you were training?

Yes, I have known them well for many years.

It has been a family affair for decades.

Over the years they have hung their hat on babies, and speedy sprinters and done very well for themselves.

That is their strong suit. I assume today's horse at the Spa is a sprinter with speed?

[JBEX]

Yes, I have known them well for many years.

It has been a family affair for decades.

Over the years they have hung their hat on babies, and speedy sprinters and done very well for themselves.

That is their strong suit. I assume today's horse at the Spa is a sprinter with speed?

you got it..it's a 3yo 25kclm @ 6.5f..horse they paid 7k for as a yearling and jr is a part owner..came in 2nd in his first
4 races as a 2yo between june and august ..first 3 @ 5f at lrl and 4th at CT at 4.5f in a msw restricted to west virginia breds..laurel races were mcl 40k..Wound up breaking his mdn vs n1x alw at lrl in december..I'll stop there but fits the profile of what you said

R7 #2 the great ronaldo (20-1)

[JBEX]

added name of horse

[JBEX]

you got it..it's a 3yo 25kclm @ 6.5f..horse they paid 7k for as a yearling and jr is a part owner..came in 2nd in his first
4 races as a 2yo between june and august ..first 3 @ 5f at lrl and 4th at CT at 4.5f in a msw restricted to west virginia breds..laurel races were mcl 40k..Wound up breaking his mdn vs n1x alw at lrl in december..I'll stop there but fits the profile of what you said

R7 #2 the great ronaldo (20-1)

all for nothing..he's scratched

[str]

all for nothing..he's scratched

Chances are they are shopping for a winning spot.
I would keep an eye on this horse.
With 6 condition books to shop around, they will not be shipping for practice when they choose where to run.

[mrginandtonic]

Good morning Sir STR, I was looking at the DRF Race of the Day, The Whitney and I came across 5- Keen Ice and 6- Gun Runner, it made me think of Arrogate. All these horses competed in the same race in Dubai. Both horse came back to win their next race with exception of Arrogate. It made me wonder if there is something else not right with the horse that the public doesn't know. I mean these two came back to win pretty convincingly. With the field that Arrogate faced, he should have won even if he is not fully cranked. Just wonder what you thoughts are.

[Louisvillekid1]

Gl sir

love the reads

[str]

Good morning Sir STR, I was looking at the DRF Race of the Day, The Whitney and I came across 5- Keen Ice and 6- Gun Runner, it made me think of Arrogate. All these horses competed in the same race in Dubai. Both horse came back to win their next race with exception of Arrogate. It made me wonder if there is something else not right with the horse that the public doesn't know. I mean these two came back to win pretty convincingly. With the field that Arrogate faced, he should have won even if he is not fully cranked. Just wonder what you thoughts are.

Great question. Of course, everything I say will be pure speculation.

That said,

I think the plan was for Arrogate to win easy at about 80% . Can't have them on fire in July when the Breeders cup is the next main objective.

Did not happen.

But if he had a bad ankle, knee, whatever, a 1/2 mile work would not make his trainer take a sigh of relief declare him ready for the Pacific.

So that leads me to think that the horse was not right just after the Dubai race. And it took several weeks longer to be where he should have been upon arriving home from that long trip whereas it did not with the other horses you mentioned.

That is time you just can't make up so hopefully the foundation under the horse ( miles logged galloping once he was back in training) was what was lacking. That would make sense. Being a closer , he should not have been out of gas after 1/2 the race and indeed he was. If it's not bleeding or soreness, it almost has to be foundation. So I will go with that and closely watch his next race.

Just so you know, after about a week, for everyday he misses a day of training, it takes two days to make that up. So if the idea was to give him 4 weeks and it took 8 weeks to start galloping,that would tell the story. This is miles logged BEFORE workouts start. Simply miles logged or foundation under or into a horse prior to works. It helps build muscle but more importantly lung capacity. If I am right, he simply ran out of air before he even started, therefore, no kick at all.

[str]

Gl sir

love the reads

You are the man Lkid.

[Louisvillekid1]

Only come on the site to read your thoughts

[Louisvillekid1]

Ok $8 $30 $60

2 chalks outta money

[Louisvillekid1]

$835 for $2 Pick 3

not bad

[str]

$835 for $2 Pick 3

not bad

Great day Lkid.

Really happy for you.

Love it when the good guys win.

[mrginandtonic]

Great question. Of course, everything I say will be pure speculation.

That said,

I think the plan was for Arrogate to win easy at about 80% . Can't have them on fire in July when the Breeders cup is the next main objective.

Did not happen.

But if he had a bad ankle, knee, whatever, a 1/2 mile work would not make his trainer take a sigh of relief declare him ready for the Pacific.

So that leads me to think that the horse was not right just after the Dubai race. And it took several weeks longer to be where he should have been upon arriving home from that long trip whereas it did not with the other horses you mentioned.

That is time you just can't make up so hopefully the foundation under the horse ( miles logged galloping once he was back in training) was what was lacking. That would make sense. Being a closer , he should not have been out of gas after 1/2 the race and indeed he was. If it's not bleeding or soreness, it almost has to be foundation. So I will go with that and closely watch his next race.

Just so you know, after about a week, for everyday he misses a day of training, it takes two days to make that up. So if the idea was to give him 4 weeks and it took 8 weeks to start galloping,that would tell the story. This is miles logged BEFORE workouts start. Simply miles logged or foundation under or into a horse prior to works. It helps build muscle but more importantly lung capacity. If I am right, he simply ran out of air before he even started, therefore, no kick at all.

As always, thank you for your insight.
Now, if there was something wrong, something minor, is it mandatory for the trainer to disclose those info to public?

[Louisvillekid1]

Thoughts on today's card

[str]

As always, thank you for your insight.
Now, if there was something wrong, something minor, is it mandatory for the trainer to disclose those info to public?

No. They are not required to do so .

When it comes to that stuff, it is buyer beware.