[str]

Thanks for the reply.

Anytime.

And I forgot to say nice hit, if it was you that has that problem.

Nice problem to have.

[JBEX]

That will put more pressure on the connections to retire him which is typical. Again, it's all about money and pros and cons of earnings with whatever decision is made. Kind of a shame for race fans and the game, but I understand why it happens.

ok i'm done .. thanks for the feedback str and elliot (walden) please pm me before you make any decisions on this lol

[str]

ok i'm done .. thanks for the feedback str and elliot (walden) please pm me before you make any decisions on this lol

Well I am rooting for you to be right.

Would be fun to see.

[JBEX]

Well I am rooting for you to be right.

Would be fun to see.

thanks.. if they do decide to bring him back as a sprinter and you were the trainer would you prefer he try something less than a graded stakes as a starting point.. thought the best spot at belmont was the grade 3 bold ruler at 7f on 10/28 (mentioned earlier).. in this situation would they consider putting in a no condition allowance race so he could get his feet wet before tackling tougher? (assuming he runs well)

[Easy-Rider 66]

Per Bloodhorse: SongBird has been retired due to bone bruising. FYI.

[JBEX]

Per Bloodhorse: SongBird has been retired due to bone bruising. FYI.

boy that'll be an anticipated foal.. guessing tapit or war front will be the daddy

[str]

thanks.. if they do decide to bring him back as a sprinter and you were the trainer would you prefer he try something less than a graded stakes as a starting point.. thought the best spot at belmont was the grade 3 bold ruler at 7f on 10/28 (mentioned earlier).. in this situation would they consider putting in a no condition allowance race so he could get his feet wet before tackling tougher? (assuming he runs well)

Q. if they do decide to bring him back as a sprinter and you were the trainer would you prefer he try something less than a graded stakes as a starting point.

A. Yes.

Q. thought the best spot at belmont was the grade 3 bold ruler at 7f on 10/28 (mentioned earlier).

A. That might work if they did something quickly but I see no reason to do this fast. In order to give the horse the best opportunity, working in a group of 3 and positioning the horse behind, with dirt in it's face, then teaching him to split horses with that dirt spray, as well as go around , between or inside would be the best way to go. If this was to take place I would not want to go in it without having given the horse every opportunity to know what will happen. I would leave no stone unturned making sure I gave this horse all the experience that the morning can give so as to be as smart about what will take place as he could be. Anything less than that would be unfair to the horse IMO.Winning the Derby he as at least earned that.
Plenty of this can be taught without working out, but in sets galloping.

Q. in this situation would they consider putting in a no condition allowance race so he could get his feet wet before tackling tougher? (assuming he runs well)

A. This is what I would do. I would skip the G-3 race. I would find a spot where he was 1-9. He deserves that as well IMO.

[JBEX]

Q. if they do decide to bring him back as a sprinter and you were the trainer would you prefer he try something less than a graded stakes as a starting point.

A. Yes.

Q. thought the best spot at belmont was the grade 3 bold ruler at 7f on 10/28 (mentioned earlier).

A. That might work if they did something quickly but I see no reason to do this fast. In order to give the horse the best opportunity, working in a group of 3 and positioning the horse behind, with dirt in it's face, then teaching him to split horses with that dirt spray, as well as go around , between or inside would be the best way to go. If this was to take place I would not want to go in it without having given the horse every opportunity to know what will happen. I would leave no stone unturned making sure I gave this horse all the experience that the morning can give so as to be as smart about what will take place as he could be. Anything less than that would be unfair to the horse IMO.Winning the Derby he as at least earned that.
Plenty of this can be taught without working out, but in sets galloping.

Q. in this situation would they consider putting in a no condition allowance race so he could get his feet wet before tackling tougher? (assuming he runs well)

A. This is what I would do. I would skip the G-3 race. I would find a spot where he was 1-9. He deserves that as well IMO.

yeah in high level sprints he'd probably be a mid pack style runner..would never think of the things you said but then again I'm not a trainer lol..I do agree that there's no reason to rush into it and maybe waiting for gulfstream would be the way to go..ok got to remember this is all a hypothetical so not worth going deep into it...if they do try it and he's successful to an extent would probably add to his stallion value. .able to win fla and ky derby and later in career gets a graded sprint stakes under his belt,maybe as a 4yo..that'd look good on the resume ..would love to see them give it a whirl..time will tell

[JBEX]

hey str

just letting you know that lacey gaudet is running that turf horse (#8 eucalyptus) again today in the 2nd at saratoga.. like at a price

[JBEX]

hey str

just letting you know that lacey gaudet is running that turf horse (#8 eucalyptus) again today in the 2nd at saratoga.. like at a price

off the turf.. scratched

[Thunderground]

str, what's the reason that trainers can have a clear preference for turf or dirt?

[stefan084]

I have a question. on JustBets website it says "no pari-mutuel pools" --does that mean they have fixed odds? sorry if this is an obv. question, new to horseracing

[str]

str, what's the reason that trainers can have a clear preference for turf or dirt?

When the trainer enters in a race, it is a turf race or it is a dirt race. If the surface changes the trainer can and usually is asked to still run but they have the right to scratch without penalty.

For some horses it might not matter too much, but for many, it matters a lot. It is tough to ask an owner to put their horse on a surface that they have very little if any chance to win. This goes for the turf horse moving to dirt more so than the other way around.

I know it stinks to have a field riddled with scratches when it comes off the turf but running horses that most know have barely any chance of winning is probably not helping the handle or fixing the problem.
It is just the tough part about rain and turf racing.

I do not think there are any easy answers when it comes to this.

[str]

I have a question. on JustBets website it says "no pari-mutuel pools" --does that mean they have fixed odds? sorry if this is an obv. question, new to horseracing

Stefan,

I assume that it means they do not add their money taken in, into the pari-mutuel pool.

That is the normal situation.

But when it comes to off shore, I would not assume anything.

I would call and ask so you know what is what before betting. Also check the payout limits of the tracks you play. Make sure you are OK with those, especially exactas , triples, etc. before you play into them.

Nothing worse than hitting a race and then finding out the payoffs are not what you expected.

Hope that helps.

[Thunderground]

When the trainer enters in a race, it is a turf race or it is a dirt race. If the surface changes the trainer can and usually is asked to still run but they have the right to scratch without penalty.

For some horses it might not matter too much, but for many, it matters a lot. It is tough to ask an owner to put their horse on a surface that they have very little if any chance to win. This goes for the turf horse moving to dirt more so than the other way around.

I know it stinks to have a field riddled with scratches when it comes off the turf but running horses that most know have barely any chance of winning is probably not helping the handle or fixing the problem.
It is just the tough part about rain and turf racing.

I do not think there are any easy answers when it comes to this.

Thanks. A better answer than the question deserved. I was wondering why a trainer like Graham Motion has a lot of focus on turf horses, where someone like Baffert is focused on the dirt.

I'm just trying to understand the underlying approach or thought process in general. Is there perhaps another culture surrounding grass?

[str]

Thanks. A better answer than the question deserved. I was wondering why a trainer like Graham Motion has a lot of focus on turf horses, where someone like Baffert is focused on the dirt.

I'm just trying to understand the underlying approach or thought process in general. Is there perhaps another culture surrounding grass?

Simply put, Graham was taught in England and then under Jonathan Sheppard. Yes he was asst. trainer for Bernie Bond ( almost all dirt) also but the foundation was already set for Graham when he took the job with Bernie. The turf is Grahams strongest suit. Distance is is next strongest suit.

Baffart was a 1/4 horse guy (dirt). He too is playing to his own strengths. Speed, dirt, ... That is what he does best.

Honestly, most trainers have a certain strength just like most jocks. I have talked about that in here.

Nobody wants to admit it but I saw it everywhere, including within my self. I was taught by as good a claiming, dirt trainer as North America ever saw. Yes, he trained and won on turf but... he knew his strength.
And I knew mine. Yes, I won on the turf but I always knew to try and dance with who brought me as well.

That is not an opinion. You can take that to the bank.

Hope that helps.

[Thunderground]

Simply put, Graham was taught in England and then under Jonathan Sheppard. Yes he was asst. trainer for Bernie Bond ( almost all dirt) also but the foundation was already set for Graham when he took the job with Bernie. The turf is Grahams strongest suit. Distance is is next strongest suit.

Baffart was a 1/4 horse guy (dirt). He too is playing to his own strengths. Speed, dirt, ... That is what he does best.

Honestly, most trainers have a certain strength just like most jocks. I have talked about that in here.

Nobody wants to admit it but I saw it everywhere, including within my self. I was taught by as good a claiming, dirt trainer as North America ever saw. Yes, he trained and won on turf but... he knew his strength.
And I knew mine. Yes, I won on the turf but I always knew to try and dance with who brought me as well.

That is not an opinion. You can take that to the bank.

Hope that helps.

The game through the eyes of trainers. I wasn't quite ready before to tackle that topic. Unlike the horses and jockeys, who can be seen at work, handicapping the trainers is more indirect. How many categories, approximately, would there be to identify trainers by? I'm asking for the purpose of adding it to my program, so that the race conditions immediately highlight the trainers that are best suited to the race. The first step would be to make a list of the categories that come into play.

The trainer who trained the trainer
Turf or dirt
Distance
Claiming (drop down etc)
Time of year, or of meet
Prep race?

I'm trying to picture the basic outline. Would it be a decision tree, with topics branching out from main branches, such as dirt, turf, claiming?

My quest could be for a decision tree (as decisions always seem to be a fork between two options). I didn't know what the question was that I was asking before about trainers, but that could be it. A decision tree that captures the reasons for trainers to enter a horse, and that would link the race to the trainers in the race.

Also, what would be the best area to focus on for handicappers in this regard? Would it be claiming races? Is that where the thought processes of trainers would have the most immediate impact? Or would it be just as challenging to try cover all types of races at once?

Anyway, this is not easy. The game within the game. So I would have to start out simple, with a few basics, but do so in the correct order, so that I can later add more to it.

[JBEX]

hey str

another one of my hypotheticals lol

2 horses are making their 2nd career start in a 30k mdn claiming race.. both are coming out of
50k mdn claimer's in their debut (different races).. neither track was biased in their initial starts
and paces were fair in both..no bad trips with either one and both returning in under a month.. today's race same distance as their debut at 6f



horse a

60 beyer 2-1/3-3/4-5/5-7 (9 horse field) winner's beyer 77


horse b

65 beyer 5-7/4-5/ 3-3/2-1..(9 horse field) winner's beyer 68

notice the running lines are reversed


no post, pace, bias, trainer or jockey advantages today.. who would you rather bet at the same odds if either?

[Thunderground]

Str, if it's not too late I'm dropping the trainer question. It's one of those areas where I have to put in the work to find out. There's probably a lot about it in the thread, so I'll do a search first. Don't want to ask old questions.

[str]

Str, if it's not too late I'm dropping the trainer question. It's one of those areas where I have to put in the work to find out. There's probably a lot about it in the thread, so I'll do a search first. Don't want to ask old questions.

I will be answering all these tomorrow morning hopefully.

Not to worry, I think I can help with that question without it being over the top.

Would do it tonight but i am out of gas.

[str]

hey str

another one of my hypotheticals lol

2 horses are making their 2nd career start in a 30k mdn claiming race.. both are coming out of
50k mdn claimer's in their debut (different races).. neither track was biased in their initial starts
and paces were fair in both..no bad trips with either one and both returning in under a month.. today's race same distance as their debut at 6f



horse a

60 beyer 2-1/3-3/4-5/5-7 (9 horse field) winner's beyer 77


horse b

65 beyer 5-7/4-5/ 3-3/2-1..(9 horse field) winner's beyer 68

notice the running lines are reversed


no post, pace, bias, trainer or jockey advantages today.. who would you rather bet at the same odds if either?

I actually like these questions.

They make you think.

Answer:

I am fine with the info on the closer.

And I know you said neither horse had bad trips.

So I would say this.

If the speed horse had horses to it's right and was pinned last time and does not this time I like the speed horse. If the opposite is true, I like the closer.

I feel as though the comfort of lack thereof of the speed horse is the key.

From a betting view I lean the speed horse pending my question.

But FYI, if I am a trainer, I give the closer a long look to possibly claim. If everything checked out fine, it would be hard to not claim that horse.

How did I do?

[str]

The game through the eyes of trainers. I wasn't quite ready before to tackle that topic. Unlike the horses and jockeys, who can be seen at work, handicapping the trainers is more indirect. How many categories, approximately, would there be to identify trainers by? I'm asking for the purpose of adding it to my program, so that the race conditions immediately highlight the trainers that are best suited to the race. The first step would be to make a list of the categories that come into play.

The trainer who trained the trainer
Turf or dirt
Distance
Claiming (drop down etc)
Time of year, or of meet
Prep race?

I'm trying to picture the basic outline. Would it be a decision tree, with topics branching out from main branches, such as dirt, turf, claiming?

My quest could be for a decision tree (as decisions always seem to be a fork between two options). I didn't know what the question was that I was asking before about trainers, but that could be it. A decision tree that captures the reasons for trainers to enter a horse, and that would link the race to the trainers in the race.

Also, what would be the best area to focus on for handicappers in this regard? Would it be claiming races? Is that where the thought processes of trainers would have the most immediate impact? Or would it be just as challenging to try cover all types of races at once?

Anyway, this is not easy. The game within the game. So I would have to start out simple, with a few basics, but do so in the correct order, so that I can later add more to it.

The trainer, whoever he or she is, will have strengths and weaknesses for the most part.

Finding those won't be too difficult.

A lot of the info is already available.

Shortly after I left the game, a friend of mine gave me a summary from equibase of my entire career .

It broke down all the categories by year.

It told the story for the most part.

If you needed to, that would be available.

If not, the more well known trainers these days will be on Wikipedia.

That was not around in my day.

That said, it is not hard to see that Todd Pletcher came up under Wayne Lukas or Chad Brown came up under Bobby Frankel .

Both emulate their teachers well.

Knowing the strengths and weaknesses will help you but do know that a lot of trainers subconsciously or not, stay away from what they do not excel at.
This can be because where they race, a certain type of runner has few races or maybe no races. A Charles Town trainer won't look to claim a turf horse right?

But often times, they know their own comfort zone and want to stay within that.

I can offer more but I know you said not to worry about it for now.

If you need some assistance with a particular person or training technique, or whatever, let me know.

Happy to help.

[Thunderground]

Thanks str. It's going to be a time investment to get the trainer part done right, and I don't have that time now, so that's why I backed off on the question. I know that the patterns are there, in the data, so it's just data analysis. Funny thing is that Equibase is sitting on the data, but they don't really seem to know what to do with it. For instance, they let you choose the surface (all, dirt or turf), but for the type of race will only give a choice between 'all, graded stakes, or stakes'. So one would have to click on every race separately to get the deeper scope, and that's just not practical.

[JBEX]

I actually like these questions.

They make you think.

Answer:

I am fine with the info on the closer.

And I know you said neither horse had bad trips.

So I would say this.

If the speed horse had horses to it's right and was pinned last time and does not this time I like the speed horse. If the opposite is true, I like the closer.

I feel as though the comfort of lack thereof of the speed horse is the key.

From a betting view I lean the speed horse pending my question.

But FYI, if I am a trainer, I give the closer a long look to possibly claim. If everything checked out fine, it would be hard to not claim that horse.

How did I do?

I have found horse a to be a more interesting proposition over a long period of time (decades).. he's exiting a 4 length faster race according to the beyers and if proportionally the pace was about 2 lengths quicker this line has yielded me better (no pun) results.. I always figured something about the gradual fade in the faster race kind of winds them up when they face slower.. also your playing a horse with a lower beyer which improves the value.. I like at least a 3 length (+7 beyer difference ) to use this angle

[str]

I have found horse a to be a more interesting proposition over a long period of time (decades).. he's exiting a 4 length faster race according to the beyers and if proportionally the pace was about 2 lengths quicker this line has yielded me better (no pun) results.. I always figured something about the gradual fade in the faster race kind of winds them up when they face slower.. also your playing a horse with a lower beyer which improves the value.. I like at least a 3 length (+7 beyer difference ) to use this angle

Agree. The only way it sets up poorly is if the horse is unable to show it's full potential due to outside pressure getting the jump on it.

[stefan084]

hi. does anyone here use handicapping software and if so is there one better than the others? just learning this sport and need a little assistance. thanks for any help

[str]

hi. does anyone here use handicapping software and if so is there one better than the others? just learning this sport and need a little assistance. thanks for any help

Let me open up this question to the daily handicappers here.

I am sure that some of them can help you better than I can with this question.

Sorry I could not be of more help but I never used any software when I was active in the game.

[JBEX]

hi. does anyone here use handicapping software and if so is there one better than the others? just learning this sport and need a little assistance. thanks for any help

I don't use software but sure there are good products available

[JBEX]

hey str

in case you didn't know mo town (#7) running for anthony dutrow in the 9th at belmont.. looks good but price will be too low

[str]

hey str

in case you didn't know mo town (#7) running for anthony dutrow in the 9th at belmont.. looks good but price will be too low

Thanks JBEX.

I knew he was looking at that race but was not sure of the date of it.

Been so busy getting a property ready for sale in DC that I lost track.

Not a good result.

Have not talked to Tony but I am sure he is really disappointed.

[JBEX]

Thanks JBEX.

I knew he was looking at that race but was not sure of the date of it.

Been so busy getting a property ready for sale in DC that I lost track.

Not a good result.

Have not talked to Tony but I am sure he is really disappointed.

it wasn't a terrible race but guess he was hoping for better..let me know what he says if you don't mind.. gl with the house

[JBEX]

hey str

was checking to see if there were any good spots at belmont for thebigfundamental to run..he hasn't raced since his last win at saratoga on 8/17..the only n3xot alw
at a middle distance on dirt for the whole month of october is on Friday and he's not entered..the only other spot short of dropping in for a tag would be the 7f bold ruler (G3) on 10/28..would think he would have wanted to take a shot on friday but maybe all's not ok with him..trying the bold ruler would be a real aggressive move
and would mean todd's got a lot of confidence in him..maybe a spot in november at aqueduct or wait till gulfstream..somehow don't think he'll wind up on the inner track..see what happens

[str]

hey str

was checking to see if there were any good spots at belmont for thebigfundamental to run..he hasn't raced since his last win at saratoga on 8/17..the only n3xot alw
at a middle distance on dirt for the whole month of october is on Friday and he's not entered..the only other spot short of dropping in for a tag would be the 7f bold ruler (G3) on 10/28..would think he would have wanted to take a shot on friday but maybe all's not ok with him..trying the bold ruler would be a real aggressive move
and would mean todd's got a lot of confidence in him..maybe a spot in november at aqueduct or wait till gulfstream..somehow don't think he'll wind up on the inner track..see what happens

If that was the only spot for him, and time wise it fit his schedule, something made him miss it.

If that is the case, the November spot might be the most logical barring whatever made him miss the oct. race was not something that will cost a lot of time.
Hard to say without knowing more but that makes sense.

Appreciate you keeping an eye on him. He's a pretty cool horse with an intriguing story.

Thanks for the update JBEX.

[JBEX]

If that was the only spot for him, and time wise it fit his schedule, something made him miss it.

If that is the case, the November spot might be the most logical barring whatever made him miss the oct. race was not something that will cost a lot of time.
Hard to say without knowing more but that makes sense.

Appreciate you keeping an eye on him. He's a pretty cool horse with an intriguing story.

Thanks for the update JBEX.

np str..kind of become a fan of his and interested to see what path he follows ..aqueduct main starts first week of november..when do you think the condition book will be out for that ?

[str]

np str..kind of become a fan of his and interested to see what path he follows ..aqueduct main starts first week of november..when do you think the condition book will be out for that ?

Typically the 1st book of a new meet comes out 3-4 weeks prior to the start.

The other books usually come out about 2 weeks before they kick in.