[str]

Went acrc yesterday going again today, it was real nice to see such a great and exciting crownd at a track again, its been a while, since i heard a roar of a crownd as horses coming to the stretch, must of been 10-12000 there, I FIGURED YOU WOULD LKE TO HERE THAT....THATS WHERE D.B. PAID 50 IN A STAKE RACE.....

IMAG7200.jpgIMAG7201.jpg
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Thanks Har. That size crowd is nice to see. I guess the young people in those pics did not get the memo that only old retired people go to the races and the sport is going to die soon because no young people attend.

People have hung on to that for about 40 years now and while it carries some credence, as you can clearly see, it's not the real problem. If the owners ever get off there asses and work as one, instead of the every man for themselves attitude that is rampant in the game, everything would pick up. But until they get a commissioner or one united voice like every other major sport, they will continue to scramble the same way they have since the 70's when everyone wanted a piece of a good thing and the sport became diluted.

At least that's the way I see it.

Thanks again for the pics.

[harthebar]

i think your right 100 % i think one comish like the major sports , would ,the sport justice, create a solid work/retirement plan for the trainers,jocks,stable help, grooms,....with heath benefits, and a solid plan for injuries,, i think its a shame that these jocks get hurt , cribbled,, they have these big days , the B.C, the triple crown, the money they take in from those races, could keep all the jockeys healthy, ..maybe im just foolish, but to me,,when you put a 95lbs guy on a 2000 pound hourse, there is no better athelete ....,,you are right,,,make it one big playing field

Thanks Har. That size crowd is nice to see. I guess the young people in those pics did not get the memo that only old retired people go to the races and the sport is going to die soon because no young people attend.

People have hung on to that for about 40 years now and while it carries some credence, as you can clearly see, it's not the real problem. If the owners ever get off there asses and work as one, instead of the every man for themselves attitude that is rampant in the game, everything would pick up. But until they get a commissioner or one united voice like every other major sport, they will continue to scramble the same way they have since the 70's when everyone wanted a piece of a good thing and the sport became diluted.

At least that's the way I see it.

Thanks again for the pics.

[Seastriper]

Sorry for the stupid question but I have been looking everywhere for it.

What does a bet/pick like this actually mean.. is it boxed, keyed straight...

Race #1 - Mar, 15
Pick 4 (2, 3, 4, 6 / 2, 4, 5, 6 / 3, 4, 5, 6 / 2, 3, 4, 7, 8)
Bet Amount: USD 160 L

[str]

i think your right 100 % i think one comish like the major sports , would ,the sport justice, create a solid work/retirement plan for the trainers,jocks,stable help, grooms,....with heath benefits, and a solid plan for injuries,, i think its a shame that these jocks get hurt , cribbled,, they have these big days , the B.C, the triple crown, the money they take in from those races, could keep all the jockeys healthy, ..maybe im just foolish, but to me,,when you put a 95lbs guy on a 2000 pound hourse, there is no better athelete ....,,you are right,,,make it one big playing field

The jockeys have a union and a single voice. Yes, they are tremendous athletes, no question about it. While some states, Md. being one of them, tries somewhat with a backstretch pension fund that can give a worker about 75K( free money, no contribution needed. It's not that much but what the heck, it's something .) if they sign up each year and work for 25 years or so, most do not. That's a shame. Hopefully someday.
Most of the jocks weigh about 112 pounds. Their tack, boots, etc. is typically about 2 or 2 1/2 pounds. Raising the weight scale several pounds would be a huge improvement for the riders as the majority of them reduce(hot box), flip(throw up), or both and the long term health issues exist. Those lucky few that are naturally that light are typically the ones that ride seemingly forever.

[str]

Sorry for the stupid question but I have been looking everywhere for it.

What does a bet/pick like this actually mean.. is it boxed, keyed straight...

Race #1 - Mar, 15
Pick 4 (2, 3, 4, 6 / 2, 4, 5, 6 / 3, 4, 5, 6 / 2, 3, 4, 7, 8)
Bet Amount: USD 160 L

Too me, there is no such thing as a stupid question, so no problem.

This bet is a pick four so the object is to simply have the winning number for each of the 4 races. This ticket has selected 4 horses for leg A (2,3,4,6), then 4 more for leg B (2,4,5,6), 4 more for leg C(3,4,5,6), and the last race of the pick 4 has 5 horses(2,3,4,7,8).

If you base the bet on 1.00 you simply multiply each leg, so in this case, it's 4x4x4x5. That equals 320. If the amount of the bet was 160.00, it is a .50 cent pick 4 ticket. So if the track it was played at shows pick 4 payoffs based on 1.00 then this ticket would be worth half the payout. If the track bases it's payoff on a 2.00 bet, it would be one quarter of the full payout.

Different tracks show payouts based on different amounts sometimes. Win, place and show are based on the old school 2.00 wager but exotic bets like pick 4's, superfectas and others can base the payouts on different amounts depending on the track. It's best to understand what these base payouts are before betting so you don't get misled on actual payouts. Understanding these things, that can easily confuse a casual or novice player, is important so be sure and check it out from track to track before playing.

Boxing and keying is what is generally used when trying to pick exactas, triples, supers, etc. when you need to pick the first 2,3,or 4 in a race. This is just the winner of each so the player spread out with several horses in each leg. They could have keyed one horse in leg A for instance and the multiplier would have been 1x4x4x5, or 80.00 for a 1.00 ticket or 40.00 for a .50 cent ticket.

Hope that makes sense.

[harthebar]

Str , i have a question for.,,,, its just your own opinioni got a couple question's for you guys,. Lets say just so we can have some sort of range, of the derby horses...i cant go back to the b.c. Races. To long ago , and to much has changed with these horses....so that leaves with a date , and im going to use jan 1 2014 all races since then msw, allowlance , stakes and graded derby preps. All of them,
questions
1. Out of all the horses in the derby what 1 horse had the toughest combined competion, with in all his races...was it cc was it tapiture, who did they race , figure it out.....i mean we know its not danza, because he was lightly raced, and i'm not taking nothing away from him.....
2. What horse had at least 3 races since the jan 1 2014
3. How many horses that ran. In these races , now this is important, that was never passed at any point during a race, now i dont mean a dueling two horses, i mean a horse that was never completely passed in the back stretch turning for home, and not the last few feet at the finish line........he just kept moving forward...
4. How many horses went right to lead or stayed very close,,the entire race
5. How many horses, closed from the backstretch that were at least 8-10 lengths behind , and passed more that 6 horses.


Remember, this isnt a test,quiz.....i just want to know , what you think, there is no right or wrong answer
name the horse, also in a few of the races he was bet down, pretty good,

just need one horse.

[Seastriper]

Too me, there is no such thing as a stupid question, so no problem.

This bet is a pick four so the object is to simply have the winning number for each of the 4 races. This ticket has selected 4 horses for leg A (2,3,4,6), then 4 more for leg B (2,4,5,6), 4 more for leg C(3,4,5,6), and the last race of the pick 4 has 5 horses(2,3,4,7,8).

If you base the bet on 1.00 you simply multiply each leg, so in this case, it's 4x4x4x5. That equals 320. If the amount of the bet was 160.00, it is a .50 cent pick 4 ticket. So if the track it was played at shows pick 4 payoffs based on 1.00 then this ticket would be worth half the payout. If the track bases it's payoff on a 2.00 bet, it would be one quarter of the full payout.

Different tracks show payouts based on different amounts sometimes. Win, place and show are based on the old school 2.00 wager but exotic bets like pick 4's, superfectas and others can base the payouts on different amounts depending on the track. It's best to understand what these base payouts are before betting so you don't get misled on actual payouts. Understanding these things, that can easily confuse a casual or novice player, is important so be sure and check it out from track to track before playing.

Boxing and keying is what is generally used when trying to pick exactas, triples, supers, etc. when you need to pick the first 2,3,or 4 in a race. This is just the winner of each so the player spread out with several horses in each leg. They could have keyed one horse in leg A for instance and the multiplier would have been 1x4x4x5, or 80.00 for a 1.00 ticket or 40.00 for a .50 cent ticket.

Hope that makes sense.

THANK YOU SO MUCH!!! Got it

[str]

Str , i have a question for.,,,, its just your own opinioni got a couple question's for you guys,. Lets say just so we can have some sort of range, of the derby horses...i cant go back to the b.c. Races. To long ago , and to much has changed with these horses....so that leaves with a date , and im going to use jan 1 2014 all races since then msw, allowlance , stakes and graded derby preps. All of them,
questions
1. Out of all the horses in the derby what 1 horse had the toughest combined competion, with in all his races...was it cc was it tapiture, who did they race , figure it out.....i mean we know its not danza, because he was lightly raced, and i'm not taking nothing away from him.....
2. What horse had at least 3 races since the jan 1 2014
3. How many horses that ran. In these races , now this is important, that was never passed at any point during a race, now i dont mean a dueling two horses, i mean a horse that was never completely passed in the back stretch turning for home, and not the last few feet at the finish line........he just kept moving forward...
4. How many horses went right to lead or stayed very close,,the entire race
5. How many horses, closed from the backstretch that were at least 8-10 lengths behind , and passed more that 6 horses.


Remember, this isnt a test,quiz.....i just want to know , what you think, there is no right or wrong answer
name the horse, also in a few of the races he was bet down, pretty good,

just need one horse.

IMO, because the tracks are so vastly different in that some are like tread mills where nobody passes anybody and some are not, giving credence to two front runners who ding donged around a speed bias track is wrong. I wish that I had more time to spend on all these prep races but when I see two horse go around head and head and nothing changes, it does nothing for me except tell me that in all probability had they run that exact same race at a fair track, neither would have hung on nearly as well.

Once the form comes out, I will look at the track, the weather and the form and formulate my opinion and try and post what I can. I am planning to be at Laurel with some school buddies of mine to watch it.

The beauty of handicapping is that there is no one way to do it. Reading the form and digesting all the information each individual sees or understands, allows each player to form an opinion. When you are right, it seemed SO EASY. It just was crystal clear to see for that person, for that race. If you did not see it, a lot of players will go back and look again and for many it's, voila, there it was right in front of me but I did not see it beforehand, or, I KNEW IT, where they saw a reasoning but declined to follow it through.

Handicapping is about one thing and one thing only. It's about MAKING MONEY. I knew a guy when I was 15 that was about 10 years older than me and he was without a doubt as good a handicapper at picking winners as I have ever seen , to this day. THE BEST! Period. But... he had no clue how to manage money and was always broke. What a great lesson for me! It taught me before I was out of high school that handicapping is not about picking winners, it's about making money. I truly saw this guy at Shenandoah Downs one night start with 5.00 and he picked the first 8 winners of the nine race card. He lost the 9th and went home broke. Unreal but very true.

So learning to structure tickets or understanding that you would rather pick one winner betting 2.00 every race that pays 25.00 in a nine race card than you would pick 4 winners that paid an average of 6.00 in that same nine race card is vitally important if you are in it for the long haul.

This years Derby, like most years will produce only one winner and will be run once. But if you ran this race 5 times at five different tracks, some speed favoring and some not, you would probably have at least 4 different winners , if not 5. It would take a very dominate horse along with a ton of racing luck to win it more than once. The post, the pace, the weather, who breaks how, the distance for the 1st time for all, etc. is what makes this race so difficult to predict.

So we will all read the form and all look at the same things but just like the Mona Lisa, people will see different things. I would see a homely lady with a crustache that seems to be looking at me no matter where I am in the room. But for others, they see far more. But... when it comes to the Derby, who will be right ? And were those that were right, were they right for the right reasons? Nobody really knows now, and the bolder they talk, the sillier they sound.

It is without a doubt the most humbling game one will ever play. I have seen Mikemca say that several times and truer words have never been spoken. He gets it, as do many in here. For those that are new or still learning, and I am still learning, this entire horse forum is a wealth of knowledge just waiting to be absorbed. I hope people are taking advantage of it because it won't last forever.

So this Saturday, I guess we will all learn just a little bit more.

Here's hoping we learn AND make money at the same time.

[Heppy10]

Wow great post,you pretty much posted exactly how I feel. I can also relate to knowing someone who was great at picking winners but always lose money my father. I've been going to the track with him since before I could walk. I dont know how many times hes told me the winner and after the race I said nice pick did you bet him, nope.

Its kinda weird because between me and my brother I'm the only one I know my age that even watches horse racing and I'm sad that in a few more generations it might be gone

[Easy-Rider 66]

Good post STR. A humbling game no doubt, but an enjoyable one because of all the different factors that constitute handicapping. I find that playing contests like those on Derby Wars helps to mitigate the money management side of the game and cuts down on decisions. Look forward to your thoughts on the Derby. Thx.

[JBEX]

Hey str.. In the link on htb's thread to Todd Pletcher's site it says
his earnings this year are over 7.8 million. He would get 10% of this
correct? Also if he had 100 horses in training at the going rate (2500/mo? )
this would be 250,000/mo in trainer fees what % of that would you
guess he's profiting a month? Barn fees,feed, assistant trainers, grooms, hotwalkers
bookkeeping and I'm sure I've left out a few. If I had to guess I'd say 20%
of his monthly nut is profit(not counting earnings of course)

[str]

Wow great post,you pretty much posted exactly how I feel. I can also relate to knowing someone who was great at picking winners but always lose money my father. I've been going to the track with him since before I could walk. I dont know how many times hes told me the winner and after the race I said nice pick did you bet him, nope.

Its kinda weird because between me and my brother I'm the only one I know my age that even watches horse racing and I'm sad that in a few more generations it might be gone

It won't be. I have heard that for 40 years running. What it will probably do is simply contract so that there are not so many tracks running with a ton of small fields. In this case, addition by subtraction will work.

[str]

Good post STR. A humbling game no doubt, but an enjoyable one because of all the different factors that constitute handicapping. I find that playing contests like those on Derby Wars helps to mitigate the money management side of the game and cuts down on decisions. Look forward to your thoughts on the Derby. Thx.

Thanks EZ and Heppy10. You guys bring quality to the horse forum.

[str]

Hey str.. In the link on htb's thread to Todd Pletcher's site it says
his earnings this year are over 7.8 million. He would get 10% of this
correct? Also if he had 100 horses in training at the going rate (2500/mo? )
this would be 250,000/mo in trainer fees what % of that would you
guess he's profiting a month? Barn fees,feed, assistant trainers, grooms, hotwalkers
bookkeeping and I'm sure I've left out a few. If I had to guess I'd say 20%
of his monthly nut is profit(not counting earnings of course)

I would venture to guess that he charges upwards of 100.00 per day. I can find out for sure if you want.

A solid business model would have him keeping just what you said but IMO there is no way he is coming close to doing that. Many trainers actually lose money on the day rate and it digs into their 10% they collect. There are a TON of hidden charges that a trainer endures, too many to try and list and I would leave some out I am sure. His personal travel expenses alone have to be outrageous.

Because he is a class with only several others, his per day is not nearly as scrutinized as the majority of trainers but even with that, I would guess that his income would be at best about 7-8% of his 10% total earnings each year and very likely less. Still a very solid income but not near what a typical business would try to achieve. Still another reason, but way down the list, that I decided to leave the game and take my talents elsewhere. Lol.

[JBEX]

I would venture to guess that he charges upwards of 100.00 per day. I can find out for sure if you want.

A solid business model would have him keeping just what you said but IMO there is no way he is coming close to doing that. Many trainers actually lose money on the day rate and it digs into their 10% they collect. There are a TON of hidden charges that a trainer endures, too many to try and list and I would leave some out I am sure. His personal travel expenses alone have to be outrageous.

Because he is a class with only several others, his per day is not nearly as scrutinized as the majority of trainers but even with that, I would guess that his income would be at best about 7-8% of his 10% total earnings each year and very likely less. Still a very solid income but not near what a typical business would try to achieve. Still another reason, but way down the list, that I decided to leave the game and take my talents elsewhere. Lol.

Wow.. Wouldn't have guessed that even with the trainer fees he's eating into his
10% rather than adding to his income (a little). Guess your also saying when he travels
he pays for airfare and hotel out of his pocket cause I would have thought that would
be an owner expense. You think if a horse becomes a successful stallion he might get
a small piece for getting him there? Would be curious to know what he gets per day if
you could find that out.. always appreciate the work you do in here

[str]

Wow.. Wouldn't have guessed that even with the trainer fees he's eating into his
10% rather than adding to his income (a little). Guess your also saying when he travels
he pays for airfare and hotel out of his pocket cause I would have thought that would
be an owner expense. You think if a horse becomes a successful stallion he might get
a small piece for getting him there? Would be curious to know what he gets per day if
you could find that out.. always appreciate the work you do in here

Most trainers do eat into their trainers fees. Hard to believe he would not as well but I am rooting for him.

As for traveling, I would find it a tough sell to ask an owner that only has horses in one place to help pay for him to leave for another place and come back. When they have multiple stables , it is common for them to be on a plane about every 3-4 days, like between Fla. and NY all winter for instance. This is not year around but the Keenland sales in Sept., Fla. 2 yr. old sales in Feb. and March, Barrett's as well, etc. are also on these guys schedule. Checking those young horses on various farms as well. No days off at the track. Dark days are usually travel days for him I would think.

Will let you know his day rate but it was around 110 a day when I was in saratoga 2 summers ago with my man Tony D.

[harthebar]

Hey str and jbex, im sure his eating expense (he aint going to micky d) i;m sure he is going to the finest in the cities, and the the hotels .......every weekend.........how about str........lol

i would venture to guess that he charges upwards of 100.00 per day. I can find out for sure if you want.

A solid business model would have him keeping just what you said but imo there is no way he is coming close to doing that. Many trainers actually lose money on the day rate and it digs into their 10% they collect. There are a ton of hidden charges that a trainer endures, too many to try and list and i would leave some out i am sure. His personal travel expenses alone have to be outrageous.

Because he is a class with only several others, his per day is not nearly as scrutinized as the majority of trainers but even with that, i would guess that his income would be at best about 7-8% of his 10% total earnings each year and very likely less. Still a very solid income but not near what a typical business would try to achieve. Still another reason, but way down the list, that i decided to leave the game and take my talents elsewhere. Lol.

[JBEX]

Hey str and jbex, im sure his eating expense (he aint going to micky d) i;m sure he is going to the finest in the cities, and the the hotels .......every weekend.........how about str........lol

Yeah.. Todd's doing pretty well in this country

[str]

Hey str and jbex, im sure his eating expense (he aint going to micky d) i;m sure he is going to the finest in the cities, and the the hotels .......every weekend.........how about str........lol

The waffle house in Ocala is one of the classier restaurants down there. Lol.

[str]

Does this race have a chance to not be as speed crazy early as I have been reading?

I worry that because of Palace Malice last year, everyone assumes that they will go 46 3/5, 110 2/5 and the second wave will come running.

It always concerns me when ton of people in the media all see things the same way.

[harthebar]

hey str today is the day, make any picks.......i got to ask you a real stupid question,,,silly one.....about breeding, i should know this considering aunt nance, right...but she mostly had mares, how come when a horse is like 3-4 and a solid horse, ill use will take charge..........how come when they give a horse a break.....why cant they have them go over to mare and ,,,,,give a quickie...sort of say...lol i know there is more than that, but how come they dont breed racing horses, when they are off .?


i like
ride on curlin
danza
saamrat

tapiture

generl a rod

uncle sigh


but i like ride on culin to win.........and i would love to see jersey joe win.....,..but thats my heart, because he used to spend time on the beach here in atlantic city years ago,

[mrginandtonic]

STR sir, just curious on who you like on the Derby? I like Chitu cuz I think he may be a freak in the making. Wicked Strong but think the price is too short. California Chrime but he is a cal bred. Medal count but too many people on him. What your pick?

[harthebar]

I feel like i changed my mind 15 times already today, watching the track, listening to the comments...im going nuts,,,,,but im sticking with my play, california chrome who has trouble getting out of the gate, wont get out of the gate today....to much for him.......ride on curlin is going to ,rush up mid back, hang on the outside , then come home...i wish....right

str sir, just curious on who you like on the derby? I like chitu cuz i think he may be a freak in the making. Wicked strong but think the price is too short. California chrime but he is a cal bred. Medal count but too many people on him. What your pick?

[mrginandtonic]

I feel like i changed my mind 15 times already today, watching the track, listening to the comments...im going nuts,,,,,but im sticking with my play, california chrome who has trouble getting out of the gate, wont get out of the gate today....to much for him.......ride on curlin is going to ,rush up mid back, hang on the outside , then come home...i wish....right

I know what you mean, hart. I feel the same way, but at the end of the day, we usually stick with our initial instinct. The only problem I hv with Ride on Curlin is CALVIN BOREL!! Any win or lose it will be the greatest 2min in sports!! GL.

[magsmeplease]

Why is there so dang long between races?

Speed this bad boy up!

[harthebar]

Yea that is my problem, for the most i refuse to play him, he gets to much money played , on him, , like a russell baze, gets the best mounts..and gets bet heavy, but he knows where to place a horse.

i know what you mean, hart. I feel the same way, but at the end of the day, we usually stick with our initial instinct. The only problem i hv with ride on curlin is calvin borel!! Any win or lose it will be the greatest 2min in sports!! Gl.

[harthebar]

Money my friend money...the longer the wait, the 25% in the buck...keeps adding up...not to mention the millions in t v commercials they bought. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ $$$

why is there so dang long between races?

Speed this bad boy up!

[str]

STR sir, just curious on who you like on the Derby? I like Chitu cuz I think he may be a freak in the making. Wicked Strong but think the price is too short. California Chrime but he is a cal bred. Medal count but too many people on him. What your pick?

I am going with closers.


So it will be key the 16/14,17,18,19,20/14,17,18,19,20 and
20/14,16,17,18,19/14,16,17,18,19

Obviously looking for a 1/2 mile in 46 and change and 3/4s in 110 and chchange good luck everybody!

[mrginandtonic]

I am going with closers.


So it will be key the 16/14,17,18,19,20/14,17,18,19,20 and
20/14,16,17,18,19/14,16,17,18,19

Obviously looking for a 1/2 mile in 46 and change and 3/4s in 110 and chchange good luck everybody!

All the outside posts??

[str]

[QUOTE=mrginandtonic;21781647]All the outside posts??[/QUOTE
Played the super the same way. Outside posts are not really the reason. It is the closers that I am chasing. If they were inside I would have played them. Dropping back early, for them it's like a 9 horse race early. Should not hurt those types much at all. Plenty of time to tuck in.

[harthebar]

, TRYING TO UNDERSTAND WHAT YOU MEAN, ARE YOU SAYING THE OUTSIDE POST.. THE CLOSING HORSES, TO THEM IT SHOULD LIKE A 9 HORSE FIELD, SO THE POST WONT HURT AS MUCH,...HOPE THATS WHAT YOUR SAYING..[QUOTE=str;21781675]

All the outside posts??[/QUOTE
Played the super the same way. Outside posts are not really the reason. It is the closers that I am chasing. If they were inside I would have played them. Dropping back early, for them it's like a 9 horse race early. Should not hurt those types much at all. Plenty of time to tuck in.

[harthebar]

I just wanted to ask you, calvin did a calvin yesterday, , took roc right to the rail, post 19 he was dead last at 3/4 in 1:11.2 , so that makes him hit the 3/4 in 1:14 give or take, in back stretch he made 3 or 4 in and outs, then at top of stretch he ran right up on 3 horses and swung off the rail and back to the 19th post, lol he was wider than everyone, and finished the race 7th, can you watch replay , and tell what you thought, i know he isnt the only horse that got in trouble, but to me belmont is written all over him...

[str]

[QUOTE=harthebar;21781723], TRYING TO UNDERSTAND WHAT YOU MEAN, ARE YOU SAYING THE OUTSIDE POST.. THE CLOSING HORSES, TO THEM IT SHOULD LIKE A 9 HORSE FIELD, SO THE POST WONT HURT AS MUCH,...HOPE THATS WHAT YOUR SAYING..

If you are on the outside and you have roughly 30 seconds to get a spot before the 1st turn, you will let the majority of horses go and find a spot . At least 10 of those horses wanted the lead or a forward position yesterday so it should not have been a big deal finding a spot 2 or 3 off the fence by the time the 1st turn came up. Now if this race was shorter and you only have 12 or 20 seconds to get over or if you have tactical speed, that is a very different story . But the horses I took were drop back horses so the post , with that long a run to the 1st turn, was not much of a problem IMO.

[str]

I just wanted to ask you, calvin did a calvin yesterday, , took roc right to the rail, post 19 he was dead last at 3/4 in 1:11.2 , so that makes him hit the 3/4 in 1:14 give or take, in back stretch he made 3 or 4 in and outs, then at top of stretch he ran right up on 3 horses and swung off the rail and back to the 19th post, lol he was wider than everyone, and finished the race 7th, can you watch replay , and tell what you thought, i know he isnt the only horse that got in trouble, but to me belmont is written all over him...

He looked to be showboating a bit leaving the gate as that move was not really necessary. It might have actually gotten his horse a bit keyed up instead of just slowly getting over. I mean, he was last, who was going to take any position away from him, the ambulance? So because Calvin loves the fence, and that's fine, it sure beats always wanting to lose ground, he tried to maybe get by a few but had to go around them. That's just the way it goes. So still no problems but as he turns for home his horse hits a gear and he finds himself running up on tired horses, that sucked as well but he can't know they are that tired all the sudden. He can only see so much. So all that was left was to do what he did which was go out to the middle and give his horse a chance to get out of all the spray of dirt . He did, and the horse finished up ok.
I think if he doesn't draw attention to himself early, a lot of the criticism might not exist but he did so that's on him. If he had gotten through , he would have been hailed a genius, just like Mine That Bird, so you live by the sword and you dye by the sword.
It did seem that he was hoping for a quicker pace by just taking back immediately which did not happen.

All in all, the horse ran well I think, for being off the board, and he has had better rides than that, but he was not going to come from last after 1:11 and change.

The problem with the Belmont is that typically, horses closer to the lead win that type of race. Because the pace is usually slow as all the riders are fearful of using their horse too early( Well not all of them as Stewart Elliot on Smarty Jones and Ronnie Franklin on Spectacular Bid cost racing 2 triple crown winners IMO), it is usually very difficult to make up a ton of ground in that race.

All that horse will need is a fast early pace and a couple of duels within it along with a little racing luck to win in the future IMO.

As for the winner, he got a great pace for a speed type, a very nice trip in that the rider was able to keep his right eye clear for the last 3/4's of the race. The horse had a hand in allowing that to happen by having the ability to get where he was and keep that position, and kicked well when asked.

[harthebar]

Crptoclearance wrong spelling but byou know, if i remember didnt he win belmont or get third ? I thought that aunt nance breeded one of the mares with him........ Anyway roc does have speed, if you look a his other races , he was much closer, always laying off second, third the ark derby was his first race where he wasnt up front, i thought for sure borel would just get the horse in the top .well 7-8 and just fill in when he could on the outside,......he has the speed and at those fractions he easily could have gotten much closer, but i know, easy for me to say, at the time imsure he things he did the right, thing,, i wonder how much further he ran .......he will be much closer in the belmont, if you can look at the race where hoppertunity caught him, he was in the lead....o well we will see.........as i was typing on tvg , they had goldenscents...my horse do a live workout 1:21.97 7f not bad for a work im a live clocker , lol