Horse Racing questions and answers

Hey str.. picked a horse in the last at mnr tonight. She is 3rd
race off an 80 day layoff with the first two races being 11 days
apart. Here are the running lines (lengths rounded off)

4/1.. 9(9) 10(10) 9(13) 9(14).. 6f..clm 5kn3l.. 10 horse field
4/12.. 5(5) 6(5) 4(7) 5(10)..6f.. same class.. 10 horse field

worked 4f once at hawthorne 3/30 (16/41)..Inexpensive
Illinois bred who's trained, owned and bred by the same
person and has run well here in the past many times. I'm
thinking those 2 races might have been conditioners to
get her ready for tonight.. no excuses either race... possibility
you think?

Originally Posted by JBEX

Hey str.. picked a horse in the last at mnr tonight. She is 3rd
race off an 80 day layoff with the first two races being 11 days
apart. Here are the running lines (lengths rounded off)

4/1.. 9(9) 10(10) 9(13) 9(14).. 6f..clm 5kn3l.. 10 horse field
4/12.. 5(5) 6(5) 4(7) 5(10)..6f.. same class.. 10 horse field

worked 4f once at hawthorne 3/30 (16/41)..Inexpensive
Illinois bred who's trained, owned and bred by the same
person and has run well here in the past many times. I'm
thinking those 2 races might have been conditioners to
get her ready for tonight.. no excuses either race... possibility
you think?

If she is stretching out to a longer distance than yes, she very well could be sitting on a solid improvement but if the race is the same distance, I don't see it. While I like 3rd of the layoff at most tracks if it fits the trainers profile, I LOVE 3rd of a layoff at cheaper tracks because very often, the trainer can't afford the cost associated with getting a horse ready without the benefit of racing . My favorite scenario is at Charles Town when you see a horse running 4 1/2F. The 3rd time is usually a much improved race when the horse has shown nothing the 1st time, and a slight improvement the 2nd time. Staying at 4 1/2 is a key there though because many of those 4 1/2 horses could not get 6 1/2F. if they had a hurricane behind them.

But at a 6 F. race at Mnr., and coming back at the same distance and with no speed and a fade in lengths both times, I am not feeling it. Stretch this horse out though and I am looking seriously at her, especially if she has won at a longer distance before or has that type of pedigree. Even if she did not have either of those two added components, I would still consider chasing at a nice price. Lastly, checking the Daily Double payoffs if applicable, or the exacta payoffs with 10 minutes to post time will also lend a hand in the decision. Those smaller track guys that like to bet are usually not the sharpest pencils in the drawer when it comes to being discreet when placing wagers .

Hope that helps.

Originally Posted by JBEX

Hey str.. picked a horse in the last at mnr tonight. She is 3rd
race off an 80 day layoff with the first two races being 11 days
apart. Here are the running lines (lengths rounded off)

4/1.. 9(9) 10(10) 9(13) 9(14).. 6f..clm 5kn3l.. 10 horse field
4/12.. 5(5) 6(5) 4(7) 5(10)..6f.. same class.. 10 horse field

worked 4f once at hawthorne 3/30 (16/41)..Inexpensive
Illinois bred who's trained, owned and bred by the same
person and has run well here in the past many times. I'm
thinking those 2 races might have been conditioners to
get her ready for tonight.. no excuses either race... possibility
you think?

Did it win?

Here was the PP for that race. I think I would have avoided that horse. While I too like third of a layoff, the horse didn't seem to be capable of improving enough.

I handicapped this on paper and felt comfortable in writing him off before watching the replay

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1395702

Originally Posted by str

If she is stretching out to a longer distance than yes, she very well could be sitting on a solid improvement but if the race is the same distance, I don't see it. While I like 3rd of the layoff at most tracks if it fits the trainers profile, I LOVE 3rd of a layoff at cheaper tracks because very often, the trainer can't afford the cost associated with getting a horse ready without the benefit of racing . My favorite scenario is at Charles Town when you see a horse running 4 1/2F. The 3rd time is usually a much improved race when the horse has shown nothing the 1st time, and a slight improvement the 2nd time. Staying at 4 1/2 is a key there though because many of those 4 1/2 horses could not get 6 1/2F. if they had a hurricane behind them.

But at a 6 F. race at Mnr., and coming back at the same distance and with no speed and a fade in lengths both times, I am not feeling it. Stretch this horse out though and I am looking seriously at her, especially if she has won at a longer distance before or has that type of pedigree. Even if she did not have either of those two added components, I would still consider chasing at a nice price. Lastly, checking the Daily Double payoffs if applicable, or the exacta payoffs with 10 minutes to post time will also lend a hand in the decision. Those smaller track guys that like to bet are usually not the sharpest pencils in the drawer when it comes to being discreet when placing wagers .

Hope that helps.

Apologize for not giving the distance of the race as obviously important
part of the equation. Can understand this having him more ready
for a route vs a sprint. I like to try to spot when a trainer is using races
rather than works to prep a horse. You take the 4/12 line in a 35k open
claimer at 6f and bring the horse back in a month at 8.5f in a 25k n3l is
the type of move I like to see.. I'm assuming the 35k is run around par for
that level of course. I feel stuff like this is not really covered well in the
books but is a valuable handicapping tool if used judiciously

Originally Posted by Heppy10

Did it win?

No. Did not run very well.

Originally Posted by JBEX

Apologize for not giving the distance of the race as obviously important
part of the equation. Can understand this having him more ready
for a route vs a sprint. I like to try to spot when a trainer is using races
rather than works to prep a horse. You take the 4/12 line in a 35k open
claimer at 6f and bring the horse back in a month at 8.5f in a 25k n3l is
the type of move I like to see.. I'm assuming the 35k is run around par for
that level of course. I feel stuff like this is not really covered well in the
books but is a valuable handicapping tool if used judiciously

No problem. I wanted to cover both scenarios because I did not know.

It is indeed a valuable handicapping tool.

Knowing the players and tendencies is a solid edge as plenty of bettors do not do so IMO, especially at lesser venues.

Kind of related to the past few posts, but have you ever covered trainer intentions when distance switches happen? I tried the search feature a few times but didn't find anything really.

Thanks!

Originally Posted by cutchemist42

Kind of related to the past few posts, but have you ever covered trainer intentions when distance switches happen? I tried the search feature a few times but didn't find anything really.

Thanks!

I have not specifically.

I guess the reason is because there can be so many different reasons it is probably best to go case by case but with that said, let's give it a shot.

We all understand about certain horses being bred for a longer distance so that part is understood. But when a horse is not really bred for a longer distance, not by and out of 2 speed balls, but you know what I mean, a trainer can still try to stretch out because of the following. Or a sibling has had success running longer. I will miss a few but these are off the top of my head.

Some horses want to be near the lead. But some horses are just not fast enough to get there early. So... a trainer might try to go 2 turns because the slower pace will allow that horse to get up on or with the lead. I did this often when claiming and running older, slower horses that had a higher turn of foot when they were younger but lost a step along the way. It either really works or it doesn't. If it fails, you always have the turn back angle that can also wake some horses up.

Another is simply that the horse is weak in the hind end . It was just not born with the structure or able to develop the muscle tone that faster horses have and just does not have the same force of push that others might have.

Staying with that, horses that have a conformation that is lacking in the hind end dept. tend to have a muscle soreness over time , in that weaker area. Because all horses have to push off leaving the gate, as well as every day when they gallop, it makes sense that the horses with a bigger and stronger hind end will out push those that have less back there and those that are lacking can have muscle soreness from over exertion. As a result, they can get muscle sore. People will say, just give them time off, and sometimes, if it is a pull of some sort, that would be right. But if it is just a weak area back there, by the time you would get them fit to run again, they are right back to being muscle sore, so you try to work through it by jogging a lot to build the area up as well as therapy.
There are plenty of things that a trainer can do to help, but when it comes to the lesser tracks, this is where money gets involved. A trainer that does not have the money or resources to buy expensive equipment like an electric pulsating blanket and pay someone to put it on and sit with the horse daily, or pay for acupuncture treatments, or give therapeutic legal drugs to help alleviate the problem falls short of the trainers that do. If you have the resources and claim these types away from trainers that don't and over time, do what is needed to get the horse right, you look good with that claim. Actually all you did was spend the money or identify the problem or both. Of course if you do this too often, you get accused of cheating. Not really, but I had to get my digs in because nothing frustrated me more in that business than running a squeaky clean outfit, out thinking or out working another trainer and have someone accuse me of cheating. I took it way to personal. I tried to please everyone and you just can't it seems.

Still,another way to help behind is corrective shoeing. Putting a set of hind shoes on a horse that helped it break over easier or not allow them to jar so much. Plenty of thing you can do there.

I guess lastly, trainers try horses long because short is just not working or because the horse just won't break well from the gate, or is very big and, or clumsy or not very athletic. It can be any or all of those reasons. That's why it is a case by case decision most times and there is no one reason a trainer might do it.

Great question.

Went acrc yesterday going again today, it was real nice to see such a great and exciting crownd at a track again, its been a while, since i heard a roar of a crownd as horses coming to the stretch, must of been 10-12000 there, I FIGURED YOU WOULD LKE TO HERE THAT....THATS WHERE D.B. PAID 50 IN A STAKE RACE.....

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Originally Posted by harthebar

Went acrc yesterday going again today, it was real nice to see such a great and exciting crownd at a track again, its been a while, since i heard a roar of a crownd as horses coming to the stretch, must of been 10-12000 there, I FIGURED YOU WOULD LKE TO HERE THAT....THATS WHERE D.B. PAID 50 IN A STAKE RACE.....

IMAG7200.jpgIMAG7201.jpg
IMAG7202.jpg
IMAG7197.jpg

Thanks Har. That size crowd is nice to see. I guess the young people in those pics did not get the memo that only old retired people go to the races and the sport is going to die soon because no young people attend.

People have hung on to that for about 40 years now and while it carries some credence, as you can clearly see, it's not the real problem. If the owners ever get off there asses and work as one, instead of the every man for themselves attitude that is rampant in the game, everything would pick up. But until they get a commissioner or one united voice like every other major sport, they will continue to scramble the same way they have since the 70's when everyone wanted a piece of a good thing and the sport became diluted.

At least that's the way I see it.

Thanks again for the pics.

i think your right 100 % i think one comish like the major sports , would ,the sport justice, create a solid work/retirement plan for the trainers,jocks,stable help, grooms,....with heath benefits, and a solid plan for injuries,, i think its a shame that these jocks get hurt , cribbled,, they have these big days , the B.C, the triple crown, the money they take in from those races, could keep all the jockeys healthy, ..maybe im just foolish, but to me,,when you put a 95lbs guy on a 2000 pound hourse, there is no better athelete ....,,you are right,,,make it one big playing field

Originally Posted by str

Thanks Har. That size crowd is nice to see. I guess the young people in those pics did not get the memo that only old retired people go to the races and the sport is going to die soon because no young people attend.

People have hung on to that for about 40 years now and while it carries some credence, as you can clearly see, it's not the real problem. If the owners ever get off there asses and work as one, instead of the every man for themselves attitude that is rampant in the game, everything would pick up. But until they get a commissioner or one united voice like every other major sport, they will continue to scramble the same way they have since the 70's when everyone wanted a piece of a good thing and the sport became diluted.

At least that's the way I see it.

Thanks again for the pics.

Sorry for the stupid question but I have been looking everywhere for it.

What does a bet/pick like this actually mean.. is it boxed, keyed straight...

Race #1 - Mar, 15
Pick 4 (2, 3, 4, 6 / 2, 4, 5, 6 / 3, 4, 5, 6 / 2, 3, 4, 7, 8)
Bet Amount: USD 160 L

Originally Posted by harthebar

i think your right 100 % i think one comish like the major sports , would ,the sport justice, create a solid work/retirement plan for the trainers,jocks,stable help, grooms,....with heath benefits, and a solid plan for injuries,, i think its a shame that these jocks get hurt , cribbled,, they have these big days , the B.C, the triple crown, the money they take in from those races, could keep all the jockeys healthy, ..maybe im just foolish, but to me,,when you put a 95lbs guy on a 2000 pound hourse, there is no better athelete ....,,you are right,,,make it one big playing field

The jockeys have a union and a single voice. Yes, they are tremendous athletes, no question about it. While some states, Md. being one of them, tries somewhat with a backstretch pension fund that can give a worker about 75K( free money, no contribution needed. It's not that much but what the heck, it's something .) if they sign up each year and work for 25 years or so, most do not. That's a shame. Hopefully someday.
Most of the jocks weigh about 112 pounds. Their tack, boots, etc. is typically about 2 or 2 1/2 pounds. Raising the weight scale several pounds would be a huge improvement for the riders as the majority of them reduce(hot box), flip(throw up), or both and the long term health issues exist. Those lucky few that are naturally that light are typically the ones that ride seemingly forever.

Originally Posted by Seastriper

Sorry for the stupid question but I have been looking everywhere for it.

What does a bet/pick like this actually mean.. is it boxed, keyed straight...

Race #1 - Mar, 15
Pick 4 (2, 3, 4, 6 / 2, 4, 5, 6 / 3, 4, 5, 6 / 2, 3, 4, 7, 8)
Bet Amount: USD 160 L

Too me, there is no such thing as a stupid question, so no problem.

This bet is a pick four so the object is to simply have the winning number for each of the 4 races. This ticket has selected 4 horses for leg A (2,3,4,6), then 4 more for leg B (2,4,5,6), 4 more for leg C(3,4,5,6), and the last race of the pick 4 has 5 horses(2,3,4,7,8).

If you base the bet on 1.00 you simply multiply each leg, so in this case, it's 4x4x4x5. That equals 320. If the amount of the bet was 160.00, it is a .50 cent pick 4 ticket. So if the track it was played at shows pick 4 payoffs based on 1.00 then this ticket would be worth half the payout. If the track bases it's payoff on a 2.00 bet, it would be one quarter of the full payout.

Different tracks show payouts based on different amounts sometimes. Win, place and show are based on the old school 2.00 wager but exotic bets like pick 4's, superfectas and others can base the payouts on different amounts depending on the track. It's best to understand what these base payouts are before betting so you don't get misled on actual payouts. Understanding these things, that can easily confuse a casual or novice player, is important so be sure and check it out from track to track before playing.

Boxing and keying is what is generally used when trying to pick exactas, triples, supers, etc. when you need to pick the first 2,3,or 4 in a race. This is just the winner of each so the player spread out with several horses in each leg. They could have keyed one horse in leg A for instance and the multiplier would have been 1x4x4x5, or 80.00 for a 1.00 ticket or 40.00 for a .50 cent ticket.

Hope that makes sense.