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STR. Found post #101 in this thread for more info on the the clean right eye. Interesting. Hoes does the clean right eye affect horses closing? Mine That Bird scraped the paint and passed 18 horses on his way to winning the derby. I am guessing it applies primarily to speed, but looking to get any additional thoughts you may have. Thx.
Promise I will get to this tomorrow.Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66
The clean right eye that I talk about is something that speed horses crave and many must have in order to put forth their best effort. Closers or even horses that we call position horses that will sit 4th or 5th, or so do not need this, although it is optimum if they get it. Speed horses can become very brave late in a race if they have had things their way, or very fainthearted if they have received too much early pressure. So here is what to watch for:
Next time you have some time to watch some races, preferably long races to start out, only because there is more time to see it and things move a bit more deliberately going long, watch where the rider of the horse on the lead wants to get to, and then stay there. This is the same for sprints but long is easier to see sometimes.
Let's say the one goes to the lead and the 2 is in hot pursuit. The one will be a neck in front. That keeps the horses right eye clean. The outside jock will maybe move up slightly to get into that eye as they go down the backside. The inside jock will nudge his horse forward to keep that eye clean. If he cannot, and is hooked down the backside, his horse will probably give way as they go into the turn. The inside jock will want that right eye clean to keep his speed horse semi relaxed. If they go eye to eye, there is no relaxation in most cases for the inside horse and they are more apt to burn up energy quicker and, or, just throw in the towel. So in that case, the outside horse is getting the better trip, not a perfect one, the horse , if there is one, that is laying 3rd by itself behind that duel is getting the best trip but the outside horse in the duel is getting a better trip than the inside horse , who is pressured as well as claustrophobic from being pinned. This is where you see horses that might, not always, simply quit.
Almost all riders will try and either get there frontrunner this clean eye type of trip , or if they are the outside horse, apply the pressure necessary to get the inside horse wanting to surrender. I think you will start to see a common theme as to what the riders near the lead are doing , no matter the track.
Once they hit the far turn , the inside horse MUST be slightly in front or they risk having the outside horse switch leads to the left leg and come over and slam them into the rail. Remember, when horses switch leads, they all move over about 3 or 4 feet. This is why you see horses on the inside of other horses as they go into the turns, get checked if they are only 1/3 or 1/2 way up in that hole. It's because the hole will vanish when the horse switches and therefore moves over. When you see 3 or 4 across the track hit the turn on even terms, that can be 9-12 feet that just vanishes and if the inside horse is not up in there enough, they find themselves all over the rear heels of the other horses that just dropped over. If you are not familiar with switching leads it is in the thread somewhere way back. It is really important to understand for anyone that does not.
This clean right eye game starts being played as they go down the backside and continues around the far turn.
However, if you give that inside horse a clean right eye from the first turn until 1/2 way around the far turn, it is not at all uncommon to see them lose that clean right eye as they turn for home, and battle back or come again with a great effort. They have become game within the race ( if they have it in them) and they have conserved energy for a good part of the race, so they have more left in the tank to battle back. If all you do is watch the riders hands and watch for this position, you will begin to see quite a bit. Remember, the hands usually start back by the riders crotch. As they work their way up the horses neck, it is typically an indication of how much horse they have used or how much they have left. The further back the riders hands, the more horse they generally have. This is also way back in this thread if anyone needs to fully understand it.
If you watch CC's run down the backside you will notice that the jock is very content to sit 3rd to a duel and have a clean right eye. Give credit to the jock for doing that but give a ton of credit to the horse for having the motor to be able to establish it, and maintain it until asked, when the horse simply explodes into another gear.
Feel free to follow up after you have seen this take place.
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Thx Str. Will look closely for the scenerio's you talked about. It's a new way to approach from a handicapping perspective. One follow up. What role do Blinkers have in mitigating this clean right eye situation? I assume they help somewhat but do not totally fix the problem.
Here is why the pace was slowed down after they hit the clubhouse turn. See the two riders setting the pace.
Also, look at CC's ears.They are up and he is comfortable and at such ease with where he is, his mind is wandering. Just waiting to be allowed to move. He is in total control.
See that all these horses are leading with their left legs as they go around the turn.
Last edited by str; 05-07-14 at 02:33 PM.
Blinkers can help relieve some of the tension felt but because there are about 50 different types of blinkers , some with holes to see through and some with no holes, for a handicapper, you can not go that deep in sorting it all out. You have to assume that they will not help with this exact scenario. If you know a particular horse that blinklers helps get them through that, then fine. But for everyday handicapping , you can not consider that blinkers will help with this.
Are you familiar with the lead changes and where and why? And if so, do you watch those one dimensional speeds that NEVER switch back to their right lead when they turn for home and seemingly always quit, even with a big lead?
Not too much. Will search back in this thread and google it to get more info.
See the photo I just posted and edited. All are on the left lead ( leading with the left leg)
Your avatar as well as mine, they are on their right leads.
Yeah discovered you want horses leading with the left around turns(For Balance) as they run counter clockwise. Then on the straight ways switch to the right to get optimum speed as the left lead should be tired. Can see why Speed horse who do not change leads would burn out.
Post 175-176 shows the Big Brown race and I go into the leads. It's all over the thread.
The main reason for wanting that balance is so one side does not get exhausted. Similar to a boxer needing to use both hands to punch. If they stay on the left lead and don't switch back through the lane, it can be tough to finish up well enough to win. Certain horses just will not switch off that left lead sprinting. As a result, they get tired. Certain sprint sires throw cheap speed horses that don't want to switch. They always seem to quit or barely hang on even with big easy leads. Easy tosses if you know they will have pressure once you get to know those certain types.
Checked it out. Good analysis on why BB did not fire. Sounds like he lost the race early.
Once you get the hang of the lead changes and the right eye stuff, it will open up a whole new perspective of watching a race. You will anticipate what other riders will do and why they do it. It will allow you to know in some races, very early on, what kind of chance your selection might have, based on how the race is unfolding.
I promise you , you will look at races from a completely different level as you watch them and you will come to understand why certain things happened when you might not have understood before. It will take a while, but I have no doubt you will pick it up in no time at all.
Yeah, I am a novice in this game compared to posters like you, Mike, Jbex, Slim, Booth, etc. Usually have handicapped by speed figures, class ratings, surface, and research from other sources. Now I have a whole new understanding of the game. Will take a while to incorporate it into my handicapping but it will be sure to help. Thx for sharing your expertise on the game.
Those guys you mentioned are the true handicappers in this forum. Not me. I don't think I handicap more than about 50 races a year anymore. My insight is more informational within the game and what is going on that others do not recognize or understand. Those guys, as well as others in here, handicap constantly and from that exact angle, they are well past me in terms of knowledge. Feel free to follow up with any future questions EZ.
On a follow up to the Derby, did anyone notice that Candy Boy went from 16-1 to 9-1 in the last minute? That takes a lot of dough to do that.
It allowed CC to trickle up from 2-1 to 5-2 as well.
Yeah read that about Candy Boy on the Thorograph board. I know Mike Battaglia picked him late on the NBC telecast. He had Orb and Animal Kingdom a few years back. Wonder if that had something to do with it.
WOW, this info is something I've seen happen but never known why, concerning speed horses. Thanks alot for this, both str and easyrider.
Does the clean right eye only apply to speed horses?
First heard someone in Las Vegas put 1 mil on Candy Boy late however hears this morning the mil came from offshore not sure it was one bet or total of several
Str, we talked about going pro on sbr , you told me its a no brainer, well i just did, i got a little confused, i just donated 100 to a charity, then that was it, what happens to my points i earned while not a pro, and you can really get those gift cards hassle free.........i thought it was 200 to join, so what did i do ,,,wrong,,,im stuck..
It's my pleasure.
The clean right eye pretty much applies to speed horses but it also effects horses that want to be close up . So if there is a duel for 1st and 2nd, and 3 lengths back there is a duel for 3rd and 4th it typically effects the inside horse of that 2nd duel as well.
It does not pertain to closers. They have different likes and dislikes and have learned to relax early on unlike speed horses.
Very interesting. Thanks for the info.
I think that you can only carry over a certain amount of points when you first go pro. After that, you can gain as many points as you want and they will not take any away. Only the first time.. That is what happened if some went away. So trivia twice a week for points and 12 per day. A football contest that is free picking 4-5 games each week. You lose nothing or win something, next year you can re up your membership for points ( think it's 3000 or something like that) or donate again. Whatever. At the end of the day, I typically pick up about 300.00 after re up or more in the form of gift cards that I give my kids. Pizza is the best value for the points, or Target, Walmart or whatever you want. When you go into the store, you place an online order and it is filled usually in hours. They send the gift card by email, you print it out, and that's it. Hassle free and great service.
Think they reduced the membership for this year only to 100.00 Not positive though.Either way, it's free money if you log in everyday. My kids certainly appreciate it.Lol.
Go to the racebook and run it up is also an option.
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Thanks
i joined it is only 100.00 now it seems like i should of joined a while ago, if you happen to run out of points, you can just donate 100.00 and they give you 3000
Points for your help
money came in from the Isle of Man
Str, I've been reading your posts about speed horses needing to have a clean right eye, and the need for horses to change their lead leg from left to right after coming out of a turn. This is something that I've never been aware of, though it makes sense. I might have free time tomorrow. I've been busy lately with spending time with my Dad, who's now in a care home (a very good one luckily) and helping my daughter to get around. Her car was demolished while parked at her work by a guy who'd had a few too many drinks at the bar to be driving. Finally got her a rental car, and we're shopping around for another one now. Time for the Preakness now, and I have a question for you. I pretty much dismissed Social Inclusion, due to the fact that he couldn't hold up for a mile and 1/8 in the Wood Memorial. Then I got to thinking that he might have been bothered by his foot injury during that race. Looking at his pedigree, it seems that he should be able to handle distance. Would it even be possible for his jockey to try to contain him some early in the race and let him go all out later? I'm thinking probably not, because that's the way he runs. What do you think of him? Thanks!
All the best in regards to your Dad and daughter. Been there , done that, and there is nothing easy about any of it.
As for Social Inclusion: Not looking at speed figs or anything, just watching the race and letting the horses do the talking, I was extremely impressed with Soc. In. in the Wood. From all I could see, he ran out of lung capacity when he seemingly got winded through the stretch. This can definitely happen when horses win easily at lesser distances and stretch out. Like swimming underwater for the 1st time in 6 months. If you could go the length of the pool no problem last year, it is typically very difficult the 1st time the next year. After a try or two, it's just fine again. This is my best guess as to what happened in the Wood as he was in total control and IMO was going to win the Wood by any amount he chose to win it by as they turned for home. Jock had not moved and the horse went from a pull to a drive in two steps. When you see that, something went wrong. My guess, he simply ran out of air and should be much better off for it in his next start. What I do not care for, is the scratch on Derby day in that prep stake, the report of a foot bruise, and a smoking hot 1/2 mile work at Pimlico. It makes no sense too me, unless the trainer had been training him 2 miles every day and basically dulling his speed with long extended gallops and times that were too slow to report, yet faster than normal. If that is the case, he will be tough to beat in the Preakness. And it very well can be just that. The trainer had to do something to push stamina and without a race, that's about it unless you breeze a mile, which he did not do because of the bruise. But if that is not the case, he can run off at a too fast pace, and burn himself out. Without knowing which it is, we are guessing. Plenty of people DO know that answer, and in years past, I would as well, but that was then and this is now. If info surfaces that would be reliable and shed light on this, I will post it if I hear it.
If.. he had ran the prep race and easily won, as expected, I would probably be all over him to win. I think he is that talented. Taking nothing away from CC but 3-5 is not for me and I saw many an over bet Derby winner lose in the Preakness over the years.
It's hard to see a rider drastically try and change the way he runs in here, having only run a few times. That usually takes a while to get the horse on board with those types of changes. His key will be to relax, which he seemed to be able to do in the Wood. That is why too me, he had the race won turning for home. He went from the jockey not yet asking, to nothing left in the tank in two steps. Like he bled, but we would have heard about that, which points to lung capacity IMO.
Hope that helps.
Thank you! My daughter's situation is finally getting resolved. She really needed a new (well good used car) anyway. And one thing we finally have to realize in our lives is that we won't have our parents forever. That's the hardest part. I really appreciate your input on Social Inclusion. I've really gone back and forth in my mind over this horse. He has great speed, and his pedigree suggests that he can run a good distance. I hope his trainer did take him on a long gallop. It seems like that would do him more good physically than have him run a shorter prep race with a bruised foot. Although it would be good for the sport to see a Triple Crown candidate, it would also be a nice story to see a trainer in his 80s win the Preakness. What I think I'll do now is watch a video of the Wood Memorial on my computer and get a good look at this horse. Thanks again!
I just watched a video of the Wood Memorial, and I was impressed with Social Inclusion's race too. He seemed to have had the win in hand, until (like you said) something went wrong. It didn't look like he'd just run beyond his distance capability, because it just happened suddenly. Something else I noticed was that he didn't run right to the lead out of the gate, just had thought that was what he normally did. I hope he has a good race on Saturday.
Just heard Migliore say that Soc. Inclusion got worked up and was pretty wet on Wood day . That along with the fact that the horse trains in blinkers every day, which is very odd, leads me to believe that there is a solid chance that Soc. Inclusion will wash out badly in the post parade with all those people and distractions there on Sat. If that is the case, that would be very tough for him to overcome.
Keeping an eye on him getting saddled and early in the post parade should tell quite a bit.
If the sun comes out as they say it will later today and all day tomorrow, expect the Preakness to be run on a fast track. The track usually gets plenty of wind blowing across it and it dries out quickly . Last thing about the track . Watched a couple of horses train over the slop this morning on T.V. and the slop barely covers there hooves. This track is not at all deep as of this morning. It is more like the way I was used to seeing it.
Social Inclusion getting upset today is something to be concerned about, especially since the Preakness crowd tends to be loud. Shackelford was worked up at that track before he won the Preakness, but that's probably an exception to the rule. I'll have to try to get a look at him before placing a bet on him and look for confident looking horses with their ears up. Sometimes that helps. I'm thinking my Dad would like to watch the coverage and race. He's always liked horses and has enjoyed the races. I'm sure glad to see that the track should be ok tomorrow. There's next to nothing on the past performance sheet to indicate how the horses would respond to a sloppy track. Hoping the weather will be good there tomorrow. Thanks for the info on Social Inclusion and the track!
I hope that your dad got to watch and enjoy the race. At some point, we all go through the change over of taking care of them instead of them taking care of us. That is not easy to do, and harder still, to accept. But it is necessary, and darn tough emotionally. At least , it was on me. Hope he can get caught up in the triple crown stuff the next couple of weeks. He will probably enjoy that and tell you all about the previous T.C. winners. Sometimes the most you can do is to listen and just let him remember. Good luck with that.
As for Soc. Inclusion, we saw him fall apart in the post parade as well as in the gate. He was nice and calm until the rider was put up. He is a really nice horse , no doubt about it. For him to finish 3rd speaks volumes too me. I would have expected him to stop and be near the back with all he put himself through.
For him to ever reach anywhere near his potential, he will have to learn to settle down. I really hate to be critical but it is hard not to be in this case. He is going to have to learn to not have to wear blinkers every time he sets foot on the track. That's #1. I NEVER have seen any horse in my entire time at the track that was trained like that, or that needed that long term. It keeps him from ever having a chance to settle down and can only promote him getting all fired up. Probably unfair of me to say that without knowing why they do it, but with all that ability, it's just a shame that he can't be given the opportunity to at least try and learn to relax, at least a little more than he currently does, which is none at all. He actually does cooperate while running and does try and relax somewhat but the post parade stuff and the gate stuff is killing him as of now. Someone needs to take that horse to the gate and stand him every other day for as long as it takes, to get him over it. Might not be possible but between that and the blinkers everyday, watching him is just sad. Tremendous talent if he can straighten out his quirks.
California Chrome: A speed horse, that is willing to rate and is ready to move on command and sit still on command. That is the rare stuff that champions are made of. Hats off to Espinosa for bumping his way into position on two different occasions early on and around the clubhouse turn. Just a super job at getting the spot on the track that he wanted and was entitled to both times and not letting others take it away from him. Great job there. He was also forced to move earlier than he wanted to in the Preakness because Soc. Inclusion was on his right shoulder and was asked to move . Not wanting to lose his position, which means not getting his right eye covered up and not having Soc. Incl. switch to his left lead into the far turn and come over on him and make him get pinched out of his spot, C.C. was forced to move at the 1/2 mile pole. It was the only thing that the jockey on each horse could do to try and win. Had he been run down through the lane, everybody would have been saying that Espinosa moved too soon, but we know better than to listen to that don't we. Because unlike those that don't see these things, we in the SBR horse forum do recognize why it was necessary to move when he did.
Smart ride, smart horse , smart trainer and it was really nice to see someone acknowledge the groom and all that the behind the scenes people do. Hope he can win the triple crown. That track is a different ballgame though. If you ever played little league baseball it's like when the bases went from 60 feet apart to 90 feet apart. Night and day. And many a triple crown hopeful ( Bid and Smarty off the top of my head) failed because of where you actually are when riding on that track. Spending plenty of time at Belmont in the coming weeks would be a good thing for C.C.'s rider.
Last thing is Richard Migliore. Not wanting to take away from Jerry Bailey or others because Jerry is fine, But Migliore is IMO the best out there. The guy really deserves to be able to talk. Everything he says is spot on and if you get the chance to hear him , please listen. He is fabulous with his analysis as well as explaining what is going on or what to look for. Too me, he is as good as it gets.
Yeah Str I noticed how Espinoza kept CC's right eye clear. Whole new ballgame watching races with the knowledge of how the right eye affects the race. Thx for the analysis. Look forward to your Belmont thoughts.
I'm looking at the Belmont also and have read pedigree information on each horse, along with going to the chef de race website. Had some free time the other night. I was surprised to see there are a number of horses in the race that have the large heart (pedigree gold) in their bloodline, California Chrome being one of them. The others are Ride on Curlin, Wicked Strong, Samraat, Comanding Curve, Social Inclusion, and Kid Cruz. I'm seeing California Chrome as the best horse and will definitely have him boxed in, but there'll be 3 more top 4 finishers. I tried to break it down by looking at horses with sires that have recently won or finished top 4 in the Belmont. That left me with Ride on Curlin (Curlin), Wicked Strong (Hard Spun), Social Inclusion (Empire Maker), and Kid Cruz (Lemon Drop Kid). Other factors will be involved for sure, (a lot happens on the track), just wonder if I had too much time on my hands Sunday night.
I think it's great that you looked that over and became more familiar with it. The key is , to make sure you only use it as one piece of the puzzle. While a great tool, it is not fail proof. If I am not mistaken, didn't Union Rags have terribly bad distance numbers before he won the Belmont?
So again, great tool, but just a small piece of the puzzle. The good part is when you like a horse and that tool reaffirms your stance. But don't let it talk you into something you would otherwise have not played.
Hope that helps.
California Chrome is clearly the horse to beat, hard to see him lose, but stranger things have happened. I know what you mean about Union Rags. He always seemed to have a bad trip in races before the Belmont, the same with Palace Malice. Ride on Curlin has had his fair share as well. A horse that's interesting to me is Social Inclusion. His trainer said that he would lead from the start at the Preakness, yet he didn't. He actually had a faster late speed than he did in the Wood Memorial. Should he even run him in the Belmont though? He ran far better than you would have thought after being so stressed out before the race, but isn't the Belmont an awfully big push for such an undeveloped horse? I also question his jockey switch. Did the trainer fire the jockey, because he wasn't happy with his ride? To me, it didn't look that bad - unless I missed something. Social Inclusion looks like a horse with a great future, but it seems like his trainer's expectations are a little too high too soon. Now watch him fool us. Ride on Curlin , Wicked Strong, and Commanding Curve (maybe) look like horses that could challenge California Chrome in the final 1/4 mile. Samraat always puts forth a strong effort. Kid Cruz will probably have too much ground to cover to catch up with the others. Can't get a read on Tonalist. He's a little unproven. This will be a hard race to handicap.
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