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I just saw this from the DRF and wanted to honestly ask everyone who sees this.
Can you see if you look into these two horses faces and eyes that the horse in front is head down, in focus and all business?
Can you see in the horse behind that he is head upwards , beaten and thinking about it ?
Serious question.
Last edited by str; 04-25-22 at 06:03 PM.
i see what your saying about the lead horse
if they weren't side by side I'm not so sure I would think what you said about the other
hey str
tampa
R9 #3 shesascoldasice (15-1)
(NOT A PLAY TODAY FOR THOSE WHO DON'T READ THE WRITE-UPS BUT IT IS A NOT SO BAD SONG LOL)
nothing to do with today's race but recent races..I often mention running lines and this is one of the better examples of it being effective imo
I think you would agree 4 back and 2 back lines are very similiar..followed 4 back with a win at 38-1 and 2 back with a 2nd at 27-1..blinkers were added 3 back but that doesn't change my opinion that it's not a coincidence that those races prior had something to do with the big performance at high odds ..also interesting (and I understand some coincidence with this) that the races were 24/25 days apart
..like that they were big odds as to me it shows that it's something that's undervalued
..what do you think ?
other thing I have to acknowledge is the 2nd time it happened the follow up race was off the turf
Last edited by JBEX; 04-27-22 at 07:35 AM.
another thing of interest is both are bad turf riders although one is a 7lb bugOriginally Posted by JBEX
I see the every other race thing. It jumps out. So does this horse run poorly today off of that sequence? I might say yes but hesitate with a real nice workout a week ago. Same rider this time as last. That's always positive.
And off the turf and runs big last time??? Totally odd chain of events. I will say that it looks like she was a big overlay blks. on when she broke her maiden and paid 56.00 +.
Will be interesting to see if she becomes somewhat consistent or reverts back to the every other race thing.
As for the others, the 1 horse should run well but the other choices do not strike any fear into me at all.
Nice price if she goes off that.
GL if you play.
oh I didn't mean playing her today..was just referring to how similar the running lines were prior to the big efforts last race and 3 back..I think I'm an island with this logic lol but I do believe in it
hey str
parx
R11 #2 nimble beast (5-2)
not a question but thought you'd like seeing this scenario..run over his head last 2 races off the claim 3 back..his races werent bad and would surely beat up this field..back to claimed price today..13 days between last 2 and 14 to today's race..good back figures..pretty weak crew here but that's often the case at this level..paco probably can't wait for monmouth opening on derby day !
unfortunately this stuff won't be lost on the public and looking at 6-5 imo
Monmouth always seemed to feel like a fresh start to summertime for me as well as others I was with. We always looked forward to it. gotta think Paco feels the same way.
Monmouth compared to Parx is like Heaven and hell in my book. Lol.
So yes, I like the placement of this horse with all you said. The 3 is needing some pace it looks like. Same trainer that had the 2 claimed off of him. The only pace I see besides the 2 which isn't really pace but in here probably lays pretty close, is the 6. Off that last race, he should be tough.
Trying to be creative with favorites, at 6-5, I might swing for a 6-2 straight exacta. Or a 6-2,3 triple straight. Small payoffs but that's ok if you only play a straight exacta or 2 tri's. Chalky but these type of races run that way more often than not all things being equal. With it hard to play 6-5, my options might be limited.
Those last two numbers stand out on the 2 horse don't they.
they do @ 3 mtp @ even money..out and about today and didn't get a chance to look at your response
loaded @ 3/5 but went off 1/5..sandwiched early by the 1,10 and thought he might be in trouble later in the race but was too much for them..never would've thought that price..
they had over $100k in the win pool..pretty good for parx..never been to parx but monmouth multiple times..don't doubt they're night and day racetrack experiences
Hey STR: If you look over the form for the Derby would be interested to get your take on the race. THX in advance.
Sure will EZ. I'll post my thoughts.
All the best!
The reason I posted the question was because I have been asked several times about how a horse knows when they are outclassed. This picture tells the answer to that question.
I just saw this from the DRF and wanted to honestly ask everyone who sees this.
Can you see if you look into these two horses faces and eyes that the horse in front is head down, in focus and all business?
Can you see in the horse behind that he is head upwards , beaten and thinking about it ?
Serious question.
The outside horse knows it is not as good, fast, or whatever . When you are competing, it doesn't take long as we all probably learned somewhere along the way. Horses are no different . They feel it. And because it is written all over the outside horses face and in it's eyes, I thought I would have the picture help to explain it. Conversely, the inside horse knows full well it is much better.
Hope that helps at least somebody better understand about a horses class and the effort it gives and when they have thrown in the towel from being overmatched before they are actually tired.
hey str
belmont
R7 #8 yes and yes
first off harthebar had this winner $17.60 nice pick
what I noticed is this is the 3rd time he had come off an extended layoff and ran big at belmont (2nd nose,3rd neck the other 2)..the short layoff I'm not going to count although it did say jock lost whip at the 1/4 pole in that race..
so would you say the connections view it as he runs well off an extended layoff coming back to belmont and they are going into the race with positive expectations based on this ?
Last edited by JBEX; 05-05-22 at 05:10 PM.
Yes and Yes !
He runs big off a long layoff every time. That is not a coincidence.
He is just one of those horses that comes back very strong off extended time.
When you see that, you can usually trust it.
Nice catch Harthebar.
name couldn't have been a better fit lol ..thanks str
I really wish I could have spent more time looking at these horses over the last week or two. I just did not have the time to do so. There are plenty of ways to go in this years Derby. And if I had been able to really dive into some of these preps I think I might have come away with a horse or two that could really show well at a real nice price.
But, that was not meant to be this year so I am falling back on recent history as much as anything for todays race.
For starters, in past years, for the most part, it seems to me that California racing has received the most talented babies in which to develop. Seven out of the last ten winners of the race before DQ's were California based. That's not to say anything except California seems to have had the best pipeline to the best of the best. And lets call it what it is. Baffert had the pipeline to the best horses. Still does even though he is not on the grounds for todays race. But he has two horses in here. Don't be fooled with the " He cannot have any contact with the current trainer". He is training these horses and they are being treated the same as if he was there.
In my mind, the horse with the most talent and possible upside is clearly Taiba. He has only run twice. Until several years ago, that was an auto toss situation. The old school was always patience. THAT was the key to developing babies. Seemingly not anymore. After the Justify showing ( not exactly sure what all that was and I can go into that later if necessary), all the old school reasoning, which held true for a century at least went right out the window.
Taiba can win and all the triple crown and Justify stuff will be flying around like crazy, or he could run really well and just be a little short which would be perfectly understandable, he can run into traffic which he has not had to ever deal with which would make it awfully tough on him or reality and logic could kick in and he will throw his head up into the far turn and be 17th.
Mo Donegal comes out of the Wood off a nice race but the Wood has been a disaster in the Derby for a long time now so it seems.
Nobody will be surprised if Messier wins. Taiba off only one race ran right by Messier last time. Unreal.
Charge It and White Arbarrio ran really well in the Fla. Derby. With White Arbarrio and the close position but doesn't need the lead running style, checks a lot of boxes . So does Charge It at a real nice price.
Zandon is an obvious player but will need to overcome a crowded field. Very talented horse for sure.
You take a calculated risk no matter the horse so with that in mind my choice will be Taiba. Without question the horse with the most upside and potential to win as well as be great. But I cringe in doing so because all I ever was taught was patience in a young horse. All this horse represents to date is a total lack of patience. It's incredible.
The California thought process landed me on Medina Spirit last year. I guess if it ain't broke, don't fix it right? Lol.
So I will wing it with 6-1 on a horse that will, if he wins, never see even money again in his career. A career that will probably last about 3 or 4 more races tops.
I would never have dreamt that I would ever bet on a horse with two lifetime starts going into the Derby. A horse that dueled on the lead for 3/8ths of a mile before drawing off and then was widest of all throughout going two turns gaining no racing experience as far as traffic is concerned. But here we are.
Difference here is he will not be on the lead whereas those other horses were wire to wire . That is a different ballgame so the experience factor will probably be the deciding factor here.
If I was to take triples I would key Tabia on top only, with the others I mentioned. Maybe look for a bomb as well but I have not put in the time. I would not use Tabia anywhere but win because of his severe lack of experience.
Good luck to everyone !
It's always a great race to bet.
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THX a lot STR. for your Take. Was planning to tail you with one of my 3 ponies but considering Taiba is now 5/1 think I will go in another direction as looking for a price. Good luck
If you are looking for a bomb, the 13 Simplification is 43-1.
25 gets you back 1100.
He was the Favorite in the Fla. Derby and had a tough trip inside.
Jose Ortiz.
I've seen worse.
GL EZ.
THX STR but the bets are in. was debating between Simplification and Zozos and I went with the latter based on progression of speed figures. outside draw with speed and Predicteform's take. Your suggestion was intriguing as well as he is Rated #2 on the BRIS Prime Power ratings and has some good figures. I really hope the #13 does not win now. Taiba winning I can deal with but the #13 would be frustrating as I almost played him. and If I would have seen your post by 1:30 would have as well. THX again. good luck
Yeah, sorry EZ. I had every intention of posting earlier but work is killing me right now.
Spent more than 1/2 the morning dealing with that.
It will calm down soon but man what a grind right now.
GL with your plays !
OK STR No worries. again appreciate you being the TRUE "Players Advocate" for the horse game. enjoy the race.
Hey STR: a question on Blinks off a speed horse and causing a more relaxed effort early leading to better punch late. I am asking this as the #11 Pioneer of Medina in the Derby has E/P 8 running style and Pletcher is removing the shades today. How much credence do you put on that angle? below is Predicteform's take
#11 Pioneer Of Medina 30/1
Has been forwardly-placed in all dirt tries and did well to boost his late energy with increasing negative dirt spreads with more distance when tackling graded stakes competition. Has lacked the final punch to hold off that class so far, but they'll experiment with removing blinkers here which can lead to a more relaxed first half and possibly translate to more final punch that's been missing. Questionable to work well enough to compete for top spot but could be usable in deep exotics if left as a 30/1+ shot.
It's always an experiment unless the horse got all hyped up with them on and it was obvious. I don't think that was the case here but not positive. That said, the theory is sound and it does work sometimes.
The late kick issue can be simply not wanting that much distance but you have to try. The rider can generally feel the tense running with blinkers on and a trainer can usually see it with binoculars.
So if that actually works, the horse should improve as hoped for. If he runs just as flat in the last part of the race, it is the distance OR the company he is currently competing against and very possibly both.
But as I said, it DOES work sometimes.
OK STR Guess it sounds like a decent angle to play for the #11 who is currently 50/1 in live wagering. thx.
The old adage " Pace makes the Race" was on full display in yesterdays Ky. Derby. The pace was blistering early going 21 3/5ths and 45 1/5th. That set up a cavalry charge from the rear from the 1/2 mile pole home. That was the fastest opening 1/4 mile time ever in the Derby.
The top nine finishers with a 1/2 mile to go ( just before the far turn) were laying 18th, 5th, 9th, 15th,17th, 19th, 14th, 10th, and 16th.
Those in the top 9 spots at that same point finished 15th, 13th, 20th, 10th, 2nd, 18th, 12th, 17th, and 3rd.
The obvious standout efforts from a pace perspective were from Epicenter and Zandon. You have to give the winner credit for his effort and the rider made split second decisions that all worked out perfectly. At the end of the day, it was just one of those crazy races where all the pace collapsed.
If you watch enough races you will see just about everything. Yesterday, too me, was one of those everything's I am referring to.
On to the Preakness.
Hey STR: did you check out the form of Rich Strike after the race? While he looked too slow in retrospect there were quite a few things to like about him
Predicteform's take before the race
#21 Rich Strike 30/1 *AE*
Needs a deflection to draw in. Positive to see the COMP triggered when debuting on today's main track as a juvenile. Good developmental moves to follow-up with NPT/REV combo even though slow running lines. Has since moved to synthetic and shown a sudden uptick lately to 68/76. Can't blame connections for hoping to get in with a runner suddenly feeling great. Would figure to have a lot of horses to pass late here and unlikely he can do it with a pretty slow foundation compared to the field. Honestly though, if he does get in, he's probably worth the value to include on your deep exotics tickets thinking he could be 70/1+ and while probably too slow, is improving nonetheless.
I did go back and look . If my angle was a collapsed pace I could see having that horse underneath in some exotics but to be honest, I don’t think I could find a way to use him over Tiz The Bomb who beat him in his last two races much less the more obvious closers.
And the thing I saw in his form was that he lost ground in the final 1/8th of a mile to the field in both those last two races which were shorter distances than the Derby.
That would have had me using him on the fringes at best.
A huge congrats to anyone that had him or even used him on a ticket. Well played.
Yeah see what you are referring to. he did pass horses in the final 1/8 his previous 2 races but he lost ground to the winner. good point.
I agree; and that’s why I thought Tawny Port had a better chance because he could close and he drew a better post (18) than Tiz the Bomb. If I stretch it a bit, I guess I could have use him by convincing myself the last race was a bit of a key race since Tawny Port came back to win next out. Unless, someone hit the ALL button (which I thought of doing) in a trifecta, then key Epicenter, Zandon and Taiba and Messier and Mon Donegal…. But it would be too much money (not my style of playing tri’s). Anyway, on to the next one. At first I don’t think he will win The Preakness even if he goes, but I just read that he earned a 101 Beyer so….
lengths behind (rounded off)
2f/4f/6f/MILE/9f/FINISH
[××] total all calls lengths behind
" - " means 1st
ex: -2 means 1st by 2 lengths
0 means < 1/2 length in front or < 1/2 length behind
rich strike
17/17/12/5/4/-1* [54]
* won by 3/4 length so I'm rounding up to 1 length..not going to do this (*) for the others but just showing example here
epicenter
6/5/3/0/-1/1 [14]
0= head in front
zandon
9/7/6/1/1/1 [25]
simplification
11/12/9/4/5/3 [44]
mo donegal
18/17/12/4/8/4 [63]
adding these 2 in because they were up close and the latter was my pick
crown pride
0/1/0/0/9/18 [28]
messier
2/2/0/0/5/19 [28]
hey str
you think (especially considering the fast pace) stuff like this has any value .. understand there's trips and biases but just as raw data ?
admittedly what started me thinking this way was i had messier who was involved in that early pace..at 9f he was still only 5 lengths from the lead before fading really bad..was thinking this could be useful conditioning for the preakness especially since it's a half furlong shorter
I'm guessing they won't run him in the preakness though and one of the reasons besides the obvious (back too soon) is his pedigree..sire won the belmont and dam sire is very stout influence .. do you think if they do decide to run the preakness it's a sign that in there opinion he's in perfectly good shape to do so..if there was any question about it they would probably hedge on the conservative side and skip it ?
.
Last edited by JBEX; 05-09-22 at 07:17 AM.
I dismissed the winner very quickly. Time was not on my side handicapping but I have looked since and I would not have come up with him anywhere but underneath at best.
Rich Strike will always be at the mercy of the pace. That's just his style and there isn't much you can do about that.
Unless he gets another crazy pace in the Preakness, which would be surprising but we do not know the field yet, it will be tough for him to win. For this horse, the race set up is always going to be a factor so we will have to wait and see.
All the best Mr. GandT !
hey str
parx R11 (5:25)
#8 easy day (7-2)
thought you'd find this interesting as lots going on..know you're busy so as usual it's a write-up if you can't
what i see..
2nd off layoff and dropping..but the sale price plus winner's share is about equal to what he was claimed for
was claimed 4 straight times 3-6 starts back
showing some speed first off vs better might be a good primer
has lots of recent back numbers that would get it done here
going to a 7lb bug who's having a good meet and the trainer is also
track tends to favor outside posts although they do clump all sprint distances together
lightly raced 5yo and not gelded like most of these cheap
claimers are..might mean nothing but figure I'd throw it out there
.
I will admit that was a pretty serious retreat lol..maybe he should've at least been competitive to the stretch call to be seriously considered ..lots of respect from the morning linesmaker though
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