[stevenash]

^
Thanks all, I was looking at the one horse.
Interesting race, I used to go to the Wood and the Holy Bull before the pandemic.

[JBEX]

it's sloppy at kee and by far the best effort on an off track in this field is cp's debut at saratoga..overall this field has very little experience on off tracks..not to say that some of them couldn't take to it but like having the horse who did it best going into the race

[stevenash]

it's sloppy at kee and by far the best effort on an off track in this field is cp's debut at saratoga..overall this field has very little experience on off tracks..not to say that some of them couldn't take to it but like having the horse who did it best going into the race

Just watched Glass Ceiling destroy the field in the slop at Aqueduct (not that sloppy, but it's an off track), she is an amazing horse.

[JBEX]

Just watched Glass Ceiling destroy the field in the slop at Aqueduct (not that sloppy, but it's an off track), she is an amazing horse.

she likes off tracks so a little moisture sure didn't hurt her cause..haven't been watching today after the 1st couple of races in ny and ky..claimed 9 starts back for $40k and with this win has won almost $500k for the new comnections..not bad

[JBEX]

based on the wood result I think cp going to have to win to get into the derby..flattering mo donegal won and irad's riding cp

[stevenash]

^
I bet Mo, just 20 bucks.
I'll take it.

[JBEX]

think irad was most likely riding cp because he had so many other big mounts on that card and not because todd thought he was the better horse





110k alw (4-1) all morning lines
110k alw (6-1)
300k stakes (5-1)
400k stakes (5-2)
500k stakes (5-2)
350k stakes (4-5)


almost $1.8M in purses so there's no way imo he wasn't going to be there today

[stevenash]

I just bet Venti Valentine.
40 win.

[mrginandtonic]

think irad was most likely riding cp because he had so many other big mounts on that card and not because todd thought he was the better horse





110k alw (4-1) all morning lines
110k alw (6-1)
300k stakes (5-1)
400k stakes (5-2)
500k stakes (5-2)
350k stakes (4-5)


almost $1.8M in purses so there's no way imo he wasn't going to be there today

Or maybe Todd wasn’t happy with Irad last ride on Mo Donegal??

[JBEX]

Or maybe Todd wasn’t happy with Irad last ride on Mo Donegal??

I don't think so mrgnt but you never know..he won on him in his two previous starts and he is the best jockey in the states .. you have to be at kee with all those live mounts imo

[JBEX]

think irad was most likely riding cp because he had so many other big mounts on that card and not because todd thought he was the better horse





110k alw (4-1) all morning lines
110k alw (6-1)
300k stakes (5-1)
400k stakes (5-2)
500k stakes (5-2)
350k stakes (4-5)


almost $1.8M in purses so there's no way imo he wasn't going to be there today

I think a good way to access this monetarily would be take ml win % and multiply by purse



kee mounts


round off nearest 1000

110k (4-1/20%) 22k
110k (6-1/14%) 15k
300k (5-1/16%) 48k
400k (5-2/27%)108k
500k (5-2/27%) 135k
350k (4-5/55%) 192k
1M (12-1/7%) 70k

590k


wood memorial

750k (5-2/27%) 202k


so it's clear you have the better chance of winning more at kee.. sure todd understood his situation..rosario ain't exactly a slouch either regardless of the result yesterday



I realize the agent/jock probably assess their chances differently but ml is a good benchmark imo





.

[JBEX]

in all fairness there were about a $1M of other stakes at aqueduct and sure he would have had at least 1or 2 other solid mounts and maybe some mid-range chances..guess they weren't as good as the kee mounts he'd be on

[JBEX]

hey str

kee R10 #7 be tough (50-1)

thought you'd find this interesting..a relatively new trainer .. guessing an assistant going out on her own..I know I've seen the breeder/owners name around for a while

she's got something nice to work with pedigree wise..most expensive sire in north america
out of a stakes winning dam..showed speed from the rail and gave it up past the half mile mark in fast fractions in her debut on the turfway tapeta surface ..worked 4 times since being off about 5 weeks gets lasix and off the rail
..trying kee maybe suggests they believe in the horse

[JBEX]

hey str

kee R10 #7 be tough (50-1)

thought you'd find this interesting..a relatively new trainer .. guessing an assistant going out on her own..I know I've seen the breeder/owners name around for a while

she's got something nice to work with pedigree wise..most expensive sire in north america
out of a stakes winning dam..showed speed from the rail and gave it up past the half mile mark in fast fractions in her debut on the turfway tapeta surface ..worked 4 times since being off about 5 weeks gets lasix and off the rail
..trying kee maybe suggests they believe in the horse

that being said #1 is my main play .. but at a price above is intriguing

[str]

hey str

kee R10 #7 be tough (50-1)

thought you'd find this interesting..a relatively new trainer .. guessing an assistant going out on her own..I know I've seen the breeder/owners name around for a while

she's got something nice to work with pedigree wise..most expensive sire in north america
out of a stakes winning dam..showed speed from the rail and gave it up past the half mile mark in fast fractions in her debut on the turfway tapeta surface ..worked 4 times since being off about 5 weeks gets lasix and off the rail
..trying kee maybe suggests they believe in the horse

This one certainly showed some ability in that lone start. Stopping so early is kind of weird. Just don't see them stop so soon and so fast. Lasix never hurts.
That is a crazy price because she flashed solid early speed. She had no action on her that day. A bit surprising there. But all in all, sure, I would have no problem playing a saver on her. I think your analysis makes perfect sense.

GL JBEX !

[JBEX]

This one certainly showed some ability in that lone start. Stopping so early is kind of weird. Just don't see them stop so soon and so fast. Lasix never hurts.
That is a crazy price because she flashed solid early speed. She had no action on her that day. A bit surprising there. But all in all, sure, I would have no problem playing a saver on her. I think your analysis makes perfect sense.

GL JBEX !

yeah nothing gradual about the stopping past the half mile mark ..hopefully lasix will make a difference
I think all positives considered it's a high ml.. i guess abrupt stop ,last place finish and unknown trainer makes the ml think the public won't see the positives..enough there to take a shot for me

is my secondary play anyway

thanks str

[str]

yeah nothing gradual about the stopping past the half mile mark ..hopefully lasix will make a difference
I think all positives considered it's a high ml.. i guess abrupt stop ,last place finish and unknown trainer makes the ml think the public won't see the positives..enough there to take a shot for me

is my secondary play anyway

thanks str

Yeah, it’s pretty rare to see one stop that fast AND that early. That stopping was not a lack of ability.

[JBEX]

Yeah, it’s pretty rare to see one stop that fast AND that early. That stopping was not a lack of ability.

finished last again .. all speculation but a horse bred this well that started at turfway park and given to a trainer who's a relative newcomer might be a sign that they were disappointed in this horse before she ever made a start ?? seems the type of horse where kee should be the starting point and trained by someone experienced

[str]

finished last again .. all speculation but a horse bred this well that started at turfway park and given to a trainer who's a relative newcomer might be a sign that they were disappointed in this horse before she ever made a start ?? seems the type of horse where kee should be the starting point and trained by someone experienced

Well, it was a finish first or last thing going in so no surprise but the bigger question is, what the heck are they doing with that horse?

The horse has some speed but will break down mentally if not physically unless they run her where she can compete soon.

I've never understood that. She runs that race for MSW and a much lesser venue and she wins by 10. It's just crazy.

[JBEX]

Well, it was a finish first or last thing going in so no surprise but the bigger question is, what the heck are they doing with that horse?

The horse has some speed but will break down mentally if not physically unless they run her where she can compete soon.

I've never understood that. She runs that race for MSW and a much lesser venue and she wins by 10. It's just crazy.

have to think they'd want to give an into mischief a chance on the dirt vs top competion though..this one a disappointment and a lesser msw might make sense

[JBEX]

hey str

R10 #7 ken loves kitten (7-2)

a kitten's joy so debuting for $16k and as a 4yo a bit of a disappointment..however it is a Ramsey homebred and they own kitten's joy so it's less of a financial hit .. also workouts steady going back a long way


the big thing though is irad has decided to ride..look at the other jocks in this race..2 mediocre florida jocks (although they should improve now that the "a teamers" are gone) junior alvarado a decent ny jock but not on the turf and the rest are really bad..how much of an edge does a guy like irad riding against this crew..rhetorical question of course and won't help you get any value at the windows..just thought you'd like seeing this

[str]

hey str

R10 #7 ken loves kitten (7-2)

a kitten's joy so debuting for $16k and as a 4yo a bit of a disappointment..however it is a Ramsey homebred and they own kitten's joy so it's less of a financial hit .. also workouts steady going back a long way


the big thing though is irad has decided to ride..look at the other jocks in this race..2 mediocre florida jocks (although they should improve now that the "a teamers" are gone) junior alvarado a decent ny jock but not on the turf and the rest are really bad..how much of an edge does a guy like irad riding against this crew..rhetorical question of course and won't help you get any value at the windows..just thought you'd like seeing this

It is an incredible edge. And while it is usually priced in from the public, it is sometimes not priced in enough. I know. That sounds crazy.

In this case, the horse is bred to dominate this group. So having Irad would give it a significant edge normally but because this horse is a firster , we have no idea of any ability meter or anything to gauge this horse with.

The works are painfully slow but having worked less than 5/8ths since February tells me that all those works are at the tail end of and 2 minute clip mile or mile and a 1/16th. That is the only thing that makes any sense of this.
No typical edge with the trainer in this going long on the race firster circumstance, at least statistically.

So I think it comes down to this. Either the horse has the ability to beat these and probably would with an average rider or the horse can not run at all and probably gets beat.

While having Irad is a HUGE advantage against other top riders which makes this like me against Shaq playing one on one, the horse has to at least be almost good enough or better to win today. And while this horse should win easily on it's own, and therefore is a huge standout with Irad, it's the horse that still has to at least be fit enough and capable of running at least somewhat.

If this was an open claimer and the horse showed the ability to run 2,3,4 against a group with an average rider and gets Irad against average riders, that horse will win most times. This is not that, so it becomes more about the horses fitness and needing at last minimal ability which it should have, instead of about a far superior jockey .

I hope that makes sense. Please follow up if it does not.

Thanks JBEX.

[JBEX]

It is an incredible edge. And while it is usually priced in from the public, it is sometimes not priced in enough. I know. That sounds crazy.

In this case, the horse is bred to dominate this group. So having Irad would give it a significant edge normally but because this horse is a firster , we have no idea of any ability meter or anything to gauge this horse with.

The works are painfully slow but having worked less than 5/8ths since February tells me that all those works are at the tail end of and 2 minute clip mile or mile and a 1/16th. That is the only thing that makes any sense of this.
No typical edge with the trainer in this going long on the race firster circumstance, at least statistically.

So I think it comes down to this. Either the horse has the ability to beat these and probably would with an average rider or the horse can not run at all and probably gets beat.

While having Irad is a HUGE advantage against other top riders which makes this like me against Shaq playing one on one, the horse has to at least be almost good enough or better to win today. And while this horse should win easily on it's own, and therefore is a huge standout with Irad, it's the horse that still has to at least be fit enough and capable of running at least somewhat.

If this was an open claimer and the horse showed the ability to run 2,3,4 against a group with an average rider and gets Irad against average riders, that horse will win most times. This is not that, so it becomes more about the horses fitness and needing at last minimal ability which it should have, instead of about a far superior jockey .

I hope that makes sense. Please follow up if it does not.

Thanks JBEX.

no problem str

saffie not being good with firsters I definitely considered but I figure with a $21k purse he's not going to ride unless this horse's well meant..the dam sires average winning distance makes the stout kj's seem like a sprinter lol..like what you said about the works and if that's the case should be plenty fit for this..I think jockey makes up for the low tag and trainer not being so good with firsters (or at least not having them cranked)..as always you never know with a firster and more questions than with an experienced horse..at the same time probably somewhat factored into the price..all in all like what's going on here

[JBEX]

hey str

R10 #7 ken loves kitten (7-2)

a kitten's joy so debuting for $16k and as a 4yo a bit of a disappointment..however it is a Ramsey homebred and they own kitten's joy so it's less of a financial hit .. also workouts steady going back a long way


the big thing though is irad has decided to ride..look at the other jocks in this race..2 mediocre florida jocks (although they should improve now that the "a teamers" are gone) junior alvarado a decent ny jock but not on the turf and the rest are really bad..how much of an edge does a guy like irad riding against this crew..rhetorical question of course and won't help you get any value at the windows..just thought you'd like seeing this

was just thinking a poor ny jock on the turf might be on par with an average to better turf rider at gulfstream(post winter meet)..junior alvarado gets it done..thought mine ran a solid race to come in 2nd

[JBEX]

was just thinking a poor ny jock on the turf might be on par with an average to better turf rider at gulfstream(post winter meet)..junior alvarado gets it done..thought mine ran a solid race to come in 2nd

you are the one a ways back who gave me this angle ..really is a good one..ny exacta in this race

[JBEX]

you are the one a ways back who gave me this angle ..really is a good one..ny exacta in this race

not so fast ..edwin gonzales replaced irad..i watched it on replay or I probably would have known..maybe just the fact he was named says something about the horse..do not know the circumstances behind his replacement

[str]

not so fast ..edwin gonzales replaced irad..i watched it on replay or I probably would have known..maybe just the fact he was named says something about the horse..do not know the circumstances behind his replacement

Absolutely being named meant something. He never would have gotten the call on Irad if he didn't pitch the horses upside to Steve, his agent first.
Just looked, he took off all his mounts there yesterday.

[JBEX]

Absolutely being named meant something. He never would have gotten the call on Irad if he didn't pitch the horses upside to Steve, his agent first.
Just looked, he took off all his mounts there yesterday.

most logical reason he'd be off the mount so the intention is everything here.. probably a good shot he would have won if irad rode..thanks

[JBEX]

hey str


will rogers

R10 #5 charlie mo (4-1) 6:12


thought you'd like what's going on here

all these races statebreds


homebred 3500 stud fee so not ridiculous placement in these races


breaks maiden first out vs mcl 7500..nice race after slow start from rail

little ambitious 2nd out tries alw
competition .. not a horrible effort vs a much faster pace


throw out start 3 for me as it's a 5/8th bull ring track..realize could be flaws with that logic but going with it here lol


tries allowance company first off a long layoff (last start)..bumped start ..have to think got some fitness out of that


now drops to price he broke his maiden at..trainer has excellent numbers factoring roi and gets a single bug rider who's tearing it up at this meet

[str]

hey str


will rogers

R10 #5 charlie mo (4-1) 6:12


thought you'd like what's going on here

all these races statebreds


homebred 3500 stud fee so not ridiculous placement in these races


breaks maiden first out vs mcl 7500..nice race after slow start from rail

little ambitious 2nd out tries alw
competition .. not a horrible effort vs a much faster pace


throw out start 3 for me as it's a 5/8th bull ring track..realize could be flaws with that logic but going with it here lol


tries allowance company first off a long layoff (last start)..bumped start ..have to think got some fitness out of that


now drops to price he broke his maiden at..trainer has excellent numbers factoring roi and gets a single bug rider who's tearing it up at this meet

I think you analyzed this horse well. Agree with it all. Certainly a group he belongs
with. No reason to think this one isn’t in the mix
Makes sense to me.
Go for it.

[JBEX]

I think you analyzed this horse well. Agree with it all. Certainly a group he belongs
with. No reason to think this one isn’t in the mix
Makes sense to me.
Go for it.

good to hear..thanks str

[JBEX]

hey str

parx R11

#3 willy the shoe (7-2)

see what you think of my points..you can always pick another if you want






2nd off the layoff drop worked before

trainer has excellent numbers in applicable categories


up for well below the claiming price but purses at parx are pretty solid so doesn't worry me

possibly sold going from gp to up here ?

adds blinkers and his last race pace ratings are significantly faster than others in here..was a
higher level race


looks like a couple of nice moves mixed in at fair hill training center prior to his last race





.

[str]

hey str

parx R11

#3 willy the shoe (7-2)

see what you think of my points..you can always pick another if you want






2nd off the layoff drop worked before

trainer has excellent numbers in applicable categories


up for well below the claiming price but purses at parx are pretty solid so doesn't worry me

possibly sold going from gp to up here ?

adds blinkers and his last race pace ratings are significantly faster than others in here..was a
higher level race


looks like a couple of nice moves mixed in at fair hill training center prior to his last race





.

I don't know about the sold or transfer. Kind of fishy. I see the gate work and the blks. on. Plenty to like as you mentioned. Trainer has big numbers in this type of spot and with blks.

This is a funny race in that there are a lot of dropdowns. Every now and then that would happen when I had those horses. When it did, the droppers typically dominated the race. Simply put, they were just better. This is one of those and maybe you have picked the best one of those but there are others. And some of those others are 4 year olds.

The difference as a rule is that the 4 year olds are going to be better than an equal on paper 3 year old in these type of claiming races this early in the year. By about September that goes away.
That is not to say that a 3 year old cannot win but.. it is a heck of a thing if they do IMO. Now if we are talking allowance races, the 3 year olds are probably better on talent than a 4 or 5 year old who has never won an A other than or something like that.

Some of these are coming from beaten races to n/w 2 in a lifetime. That is also a big difference and depending on the horse, a huge difference.

So with all these rules of thumbs of mine floating around, Lol, I think if I played I would chase an older horse like the 1,2 or 10.
The 10 looks pretty solid and it would depend on the prices of course but I think that would be my position.

Your horse has solid pluses as you mentioned but I am awfully stubborn with some of those rules of thumb I have. I can handle losing to those types of rules but if I break that type of rule and the 4 year old beats me, OMG am I pissed at myself. Lol.

Good luck if you play JBEX !

[JBEX]

thanks str and some great points



I looked at the conditions of the 1st at parx tomorrow


clm 7500 3yo's OR 4 and up n2l ..so the fact that they will let 3yo's with multiple wins run against the 4yo's with only one shows ,as you said, that they feel older horses hold an edge at this stage in these types of races..I've always been aware of that with these type of conditions..maybe it's also to open up more races to 3yos who there are less spots for in the condition
book

[JBEX]

I realize hindsight blah blah blah but my purpose is to try to take something away from a race that I might reflect on in the future


the winner..

slop and 4 horse field last race
2 back race excellent including trouble in the stretch
the really poor race 3 back he ran without blinkers
all the others were against much better competition
trainer excellent roi over large sample
being a 4yo (what you said)



saw how bad the rail was at 6f (over the course of the meet) and I tossed him in spite of all that.. may rethink dismissing bad posts too quick if I feel other things line up well