[Madison]

Q. BEL R9 #9 Derrynane, Has run most 5 and 5.5F. I believe first stretch to 7F. Coming fast late last. Looked to me that extra distance could help. Not to sure on the value here though.




A. This horse is certainly a nice one. Comes flying in those short races. Chad's horse is a monster so if you can beat him, you deserve all the payout you can get.

It will be interesting to see if this horse can sustain the same type of late run going from 5/8ths or 5 1/2 out to 7/8ths. That is more of a stretch out for a pure 5/8ths type horse than most would think. If he can, that is a real positive. More often than not though, they tend to run a little flatter as they close . Just not with the same push you might be used to.

Amazingly, some 5/8ths horses that close like that do not run as well going 5 1/2F. That seems crazy doesn't it? But some horses just can't.

But to be fair, he has never tried it before so I totally get trying him there. Has the right rider for the task as well with Rosario. He's is sooo good closing as we all know.

I'm not trying to talk you off him as he is rock solid. Just want to make you aware that sometimes the difference between those two distance's is much more than someone might think.
So an interesting race for sure.

Good luck if you play.

All the best Madison and glad to have you check in !

Much appreciated. Yeah, the combo of the stretch and the perceived lack of value concerns me. I'll probably just go light.

Thanks again and BOL!!

[JBEX]

hey str


your opinion on this one..


R11 #8 thorover (6-1) 5:25



claimed last out and on the shelf for about 7 months after 2 solid efforts..probably a bad sign and might end the case for him right there..although he did win off an approximate 4 month layoff 2 back and a 7 week layoff
6 back


7f in 90+ degree weather off a long layoff not an easy assignment



positives



obviously last 2 races..the last a good 2nd against open $7.5k's which are much better than these



blinkers added 3 back may have gotten him to relax more
early..1st time he had them on ran into a little trouble

he also ran well with them on but did so on the front end


lightly raced 4yo against a field of repeat losers


realize lots of speculation with this one..trainer/owner just started his career this year so tough to get a read on him..will also enhance the price a lot




.

[JBEX]

hey str


your opinion on this one..


R11 #8 thorover (6-1) 5:25



claimed last out and on the shelf for about 7 months after 2 solid efforts..probably a bad sign and might end the case for him right there..although he did win off an approximate 4 month layoff 2 back and a 7 week layoff
6 back


7f in 90+ degree weather off a long layoff not an easy assignment



positives



obviously last 2 races..the last a good 2nd against open $7.5k's which are much better than these



blinkers added 3 back may have gotten him to relax more
early..1st time he had them on ran into a little trouble

he also ran well with them on but did so on the front end


lightly raced 4yo against a field of repeat losers


realize lots of speculation with this one..trainer/owner just started his career this year so tough to get a read on him..will also enhance the price a lot




.

kind of important...parx

[str]

hey str


your opinion on this one..


R11 #8 thorover (6-1) 5:25



claimed last out and on the shelf for about 7 months after 2 solid efforts..probably a bad sign and might end the case for him right there..although he did win off an approximate 4 month layoff 2 back and a 7 week layoff
6 back


7f in 90+ degree weather off a long layoff not an easy assignment



positives



obviously last 2 races..the last a good 2nd against open $7.5k's which are much better than these



blinkers added 3 back may have gotten him to relax more
early..1st time he had them on ran into a little trouble

he also ran well with them on but did so on the front end


lightly raced 4yo against a field of repeat losers


realize lots of speculation with this one..trainer/owner just started his career this year so tough to get a read on him..will also enhance the price a lot




.

So I agree with everything and really like the runs fresh off time angle.

My concern is a new trainer and am I correct he has not yet won a race in his career?

Anyway, his works are one 3/8ths, one 1/2, two 5/8ths and two more 1/2's. That is weird for a horse off 7 months especially going 7/8ths first time back. If this was a reliable trainer I would not be so concerned but we have no idea if this guy is ok or a mess.
I just don't know.
Without seeing the horse I would guess no to playing him based on what little I have. If I could see the horse and he was in good healthy flesh, no belly, looked ready to run, etc. then sure. But it is impossible to give a fair educated judgement based on so little.

Saw you said it was important . Really sorry I can't offer more but I can't trust a trainer that has never won a race to be able to have a horse fit off time going that extra 1/8th mile. That extra 1/8th is difficult to do with horses that do not get a lot out of workouts and I wonder if the trainer has that kind of for sight at this point or not to accomplish that.

Sure wish I could help more.

Really do love the off time angle with this one. Frustrating decision.

GL if you play.

[str]

So I agree with everything and really like the runs fresh off time angle.

My concern is a new trainer and am I correct he has not yet won a race in his career?

Anyway, his works are one 3/8ths, one 1/2, two 5/8ths and two more 1/2's. That is weird for a horse off 7 months especially going 7/8ths first time back. If this was a reliable trainer I would not be so concerned but we have no idea if this guy is ok or a mess.
I just don't know.
Without seeing the horse I would guess no to playing him based on what little I have. If I could see the horse and he was in good healthy flesh, no belly, looked ready to run, etc. then sure. But it is impossible to give a fair educated judgement based on so little.

Saw you said it was important . Really sorry I can't offer more but I can't trust a trainer that has never won a race to be able to have a horse fit off time going that extra 1/8th mile. That extra 1/8th is difficult to do with horses that do not get a lot out of workouts and I wonder if the trainer has that kind of for sight at this point or not to accomplish that.

Sure wish I could help more.

Really do love the off time angle with this one. Frustrating decision.

GL if you play.

I will revise this to say that if the price is nice, I could make a small or typical play on this horse, again, at a nice price.

I could not bet large on this one without knowing who this trainer is and if he is capable to do what is necessary to have this one ready off time.
Again, if I was there and could see the horse get saddled and warm up, it would be a totally different story.

Those two races off time are nice !


But I'm not so what I just said would be my stance.

GL JBEX !

[JBEX]

I will revise this to say that if the price is nice, I could make a small or typical play on this horse, again, at a nice price.

I could not bet large on this one without knowing who this trainer is and if he is capable to do what is necessary to have this one ready off time.
Again, if I was there and could see the horse get saddled and warm up, it would be a totally different story.

Those two races off time are nice !


But I'm not so what I just said would be my stance.

GL JBEX !

I agree that at the end of the day knowing nothing about the trainer makes this more of a guess..this should be reflected in the price or maybe the type if you see him @ around 7-2 with under 5 mtp could possibly be a sign that he's live


thanks str

[JBEX]

So I agree with everything and really like the runs fresh off time angle.

My concern is a new trainer and am I correct he has not yet won a race in his career?




Anyway, his works are one 3/8ths, one 1/2, two 5/8ths and two more 1/2's. That is weird for a horse off 7 months especially going 7/8ths first time back. If this was a reliable trainer I would not be so concerned but we have no idea if this guy is ok or a mess.
I just don't know.
Without seeing the horse I would guess no to playing him based on what little I have. If I could see the horse and he was in good healthy flesh, no belly, looked ready to run, etc. then sure. But it is impossible to give a fair educated judgement based on so little.

Saw you said it was important . Really sorry I can't offer more but I can't trust a trainer that has never won a race to be able to have a horse fit off time going that extra 1/8th mile. That extra 1/8th is difficult to do with horses that do not get a lot out of workouts and I wonder if the trainer has that kind of for sight at this point or not to accomplish that.

Sure wish I could help more.

Really do love the off time angle with this one. Frustrating decision.

GL if you play.

correct..a rookie who hasn't won a race in 18 starts with 12 of them at parx

[JBEX]

well pretty much spit it well before half mile mark.. certainly not what he was in his last 2 and maybe as you said not prepared well for today by a novice trainer



taking something away from the winner of this race (nice $24.40)at least he wasn't 2/29 (2/18) and the only time he competed at this level (in his last 10 anyway) he won going a mile and 70 yards....not a bad correlation distance to 7f imo..i think clm 7500b at parx is n3l excluding 3yo from that condition (they can have won > 3 races)

[str]

well pretty much spit it well before half mile mark.. certainly not what he was in his last 2 and maybe as you said not prepared well for today by a novice trainer



taking something away from the winner of this race (nice $24.40)at least he wasn't 2/29 (2/18) and the only time he competed at this level (in his last 10 anyway) he won going a mile and 70 yards....not a bad correlation distance to 7f imo..i think clm 7500b at parx is n3l excluding 3yo from that condition (they can have won > 3 races)

Barring injury, something traumatic that happened the day of, or footing they do not trust, when you see a horse that has run very well fresh, they will pretty much always run very well fresh. Without seeing the horse on the track, it looks like this horse was no fitter than the works suggested which had him running at full speed for about a 1/2 mile.
His work pattern was a head scratcher for sure. It made no sense at all given the amount of time off.

And yes, 7/8's is a great cut back distance for a horse that has won going long before.

I really like that you see a race and take more away from it than just the result of the horse you play. Eyes wide open and always wanting to see something you weren't looking for. Play on and play against observations for down the road. That creates opportunities going forward no matter type of the game you are betting on. Real good job with that IMO.
Keep up the good work JBEX.

[JBEX]

Barring injury, something traumatic that happened the day of, or footing they do not trust, when you see a horse that has run very well fresh, they will pretty much always run very well fresh. Without seeing the horse on the track, it looks like this horse was no fitter than the works suggested which had him running at full speed for about a 1/2 mile.
His work pattern was a head scratcher for sure. It made no sense at all given the amount of time off.

And yes, 7/8's is a great cut back distance for a horse that has won going long before.

I really like that you see a race and take more away from it than just the result of the horse you play. Eyes wide open and always wanting to see something you weren't looking for. Play on and play against observations for down the road. That creates opportunities going forward no matter type of the game you are betting on. Real good job with that IMO.
Keep up the good work JBEX.

thanks str

obviously I can't read into works (aside from their rankings) like you can so most of the time they're either neutral or positive info for me.. understanding them the way you do is a nice edge and as we both know (I do through you) times are often not the most important thing


I like to look at things afterwards and often times, as you said, there's a lesson you can carry forward that may benefit you down the road.. even if it's as general as don't draw conclusions about the race prematurely and make sure to look it over carefully.. I'm often guilty of seeing something I like and not giving that particular horse or others in the race enough of a look.. not saying I would have played the winner but feel there was some legitimacy to the point I made and honestly didn't consider it going in

[JBEX]

hey str


laurel's got a 2yo msw in R1.. john robb has incredible numbers with maidens which is probably something you mentioned to me before..like his horse's pedigree and works..thought you might like to take a look..think will be significantly lower than ml

[str]

hey str


laurel's got a 2yo msw in R1.. john robb has incredible numbers with maidens which is probably something you mentioned to me before..like his horse's pedigree and works..thought you might like to take a look..think will be significantly lower than ml

He is having a really nice year. He has always been good with babies.

Also like the Jan. foal date.

Running against March April and May foals is a solid edge this early in the game. And who knows when in January. Could have been way early January like around Christmas. Lol.
I do not know that rider. Not sure what's up with that but it would not stop me.
Always have to respect a firster of his.

GL if you play JBEX.

[JBEX]

He is having a really nice year. He has always been good with babies.

Also like the Jan. foal date.

Running against March April and May foals is a solid edge this early in the game. And who knows when in January. Could have been way early January like around Christmas. Lol.
I do not know that rider. Not sure what's up with that but it would not stop me.
Always have to respect a firster of his.

GL if you play JBEX.

thanks str and that's a nice additional piece of information..looked up the rider and he's been very lightly used for over a decade..that a bit of a puzzler to me also...maybe has the gate skills to get it done

[trytrytry]

the English Derby is tomorrow at Epsom the race that defined things like a 3 year old classics and eventually concepts like triple crowns etc

[JBEX]

the English Derby is tomorrow at Epsom the race that defined things like a 3 year old classics and eventually concepts like triple crowns etc

was looking at the tvg pp's..factoring price I thought
piz badile was a little interesting @ 10-1

[str]

the English Derby is tomorrow at Epsom the race that defined things like a 3 year old classics and eventually concepts like triple crowns etc

Thanks for checking in Try.

That race is huge over there but has never gotten it's due here in the states so it seems.

It's worth a watch .

All the best.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: The Belmont Stakes draw is June 7th at 11 am. If you get a chance to look over the form will be interested to get your take on the 12 furlong "test of a champion" race. THX in advance.

[str]

Hey STR: The Belmont Stakes draw is June 7th at 11 am. If you get a chance to look over the form will be interested to get your take on the 12 furlong "test of a champion" race. THX in advance.

I am hoping to look at the card. Certainly will look at the race.
I'll let you know EZ.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I am hoping to look at the card. Certainly will look at the race.
I'll let you know EZ.

[JBEX]

hey str


cd r1 #3 clear the deck (5-1)


remember a few years ago we discussed the horse army mule ? the first starter I've seen of his goes today and apparently by the stats looks like he's already had a fts winner ..it's a restricted msw for horses who were sold at auction for less than 45k..
he's got a pretty nice multiple especially factoring in nothing special on the dam..I'll give him a shot based on mcpeek having a nice meet and is undervalued with msw and firsters..works look steady and crisp


this is more about the sire having a runner rather than a pick on the horse..he retired 3/3 finishing with the Carter handicap at Aqueduct which was ultra impressive


https://youtu.be/P9eyMdPD4hs

[JBEX]

hey str


cd r1 #3 clear the deck (5-1)


remember a few years ago we discussed the horse army mule ? the first starter I've seen of his goes today and apparently by the stats looks like he's already had a fts winner ..it's a restricted msw for horses who were sold at auction for less than 45k..
he's got a pretty nice multiple especially factoring in nothing special on the dam..I'll give him a shot based on mcpeek having a nice meet and is undervalued with msw and firsters..works look steady and crisp


this is more about the sire having a runner rather than a pick on the horse..he retired 3/3 finishing with the Carter handicap at Aqueduct which was ultra impressive


https://youtu.be/P9eyMdPD4hs

it's funny I just picked that description off the top of my head and it was what larry colmus said nearing the wire to describe his performance..must have stuck in my head

[str]

hey str


cd r1 #3 clear the deck (5-1)


remember a few years ago we discussed the horse army mule ? the first starter I've seen of his goes today and apparently by the stats looks like he's already had a fts winner ..it's a restricted msw for horses who were sold at auction for less than 45k..
he's got a pretty nice multiple especially factoring in nothing special on the dam..I'll give him a shot based on mcpeek having a nice meet and is undervalued with msw and firsters..works look steady and crisp


this is more about the sire having a runner rather than a pick on the horse..he retired 3/3 finishing with the Carter handicap at Aqueduct which was ultra impressive


https://youtu.be/P9eyMdPD4hs

it's funny I just picked that description off the top of my head and it was what larry colmus said nearing the wire to describe his performance..must have stuck in my head

Sorry I missed this one JBEX. I'm in D.C., Georgetown doing a major reno on a sweet townhouse. I'm enjoying it but it's killin me. Lol.
About 5 minutes from where I grew up. Pretty cool.

Anyway, sure I remember Army Mule. He will throw runners no doubt. Soundness will be the obstacle. Saw the chart, not the video and it looked like this one ran very well. Probably gets the money next out especially if they can go 6F.

Keep me posted on this one and other Army Mules you see.

Thanks JBEX!

[JBEX]

Sorry I missed this one JBEX. I'm in D.C., Georgetown doing a major reno on a sweet townhouse. I'm enjoying it but it's killin me. Lol.
About 5 minutes from where I grew up. Pretty cool.

Anyway, sure I remember Army Mule. He will throw runners no doubt. Soundness will be the obstacle. Saw the chart, not the video and it looked like this one ran very well. Probably gets the money next out especially if they can go 6F.

Keep me posted on this one and other Army Mules you see.

Thanks JBEX!

np str


enjoying it and killing you at the same time lol..sure it'll turn out great and nice it's in your old neighborhood



no big deal on seeing it late and.. just thought you'd be interested considering all the back n' forth we had about the sire..wasn't a bad race at all and should benefit from the experience and as you said going longer


check out the number sold at kee September and the avg price..his yearlings obviously were received very well..I will certainly keep you posted when I see one's running

[JBEX]

the price of all his progeny at auction... can be listed in order of sale price by hitting th top of the column.. some real expensive purchases quite a ways down


https://www.racingpost.com/profile/h...army-mule/form

[JBEX]

the price of all his progeny at auction... can be listed in order of sale price by hitting th top of the column.. some real expensive purchases quite a ways down


https://www.racingpost.com/profile/h...army-mule/form

from the link you have to go to


sales records then sales results

[JBEX]

think I put this up a while back..owner of the farm he stands at talking about him as a stallion prospect


https://youtu.be/yZiNHTLZZwg




.

[JBEX]

the price of all his progeny at auction... can be listed in order of sale price by hitting th top of the column.. some real expensive purchases quite a ways down


https://www.racingpost.com/profile/h...army-mule/form

another thing you can do is hit "date" and you will see the most recent auction results.. 7 were sold in the last 3 days at the Ocala Breeders sale and 1 was withdrawn.. do you know what withdrawn means.. owner changed his mind?



also..

if the progeny has run it will appear in boldface

if you hit " dam dam's sire" column it will show you if it was up for sale at multiple auctions





.

[JBEX]

added another thing I found

[JBEX]

hey str



besides all this army mule madness commandperformance is running in bel R1.. it's about as a good a msw race as you'll see which is not surprising the day before the big race.. I am off him but just making you aware.. my pick at a little bit of a price would be mott's #5 shreveport (6-1)

[str]

I am hoping to look at the card. Certainly will look at the race.
I'll let you know EZ.

Just didn't have the time today EZ for the card.

As for the Belmont:

Today's pace in the Belmont looks on paper to be a one horse show. We The People should break well from the 1 post and with that short run into the first turn, control the tempo. I suppose there are a couple of horses in here that could try and push that lead early but not unless they drastically change tactics.
Seeing 2-1 on We The People is not an exciting proposition by any means. But playing a closer in hopes of a pace collapse just does not appeal to me because I don't see how, barring a terrible break or something unforeseen happening, a closer will have the kind of pace typically necessary to close into. If one of those stalk/closers was, IMO, just much better than the others, a case might be made to just play the horse that seems tons the best and don't worry about the pace up front. But I just don't see who that horse would be.

So my pick will be the 1 horse We The People based on the pace he should set and what the others seem to be best suited for.
Not at all exciting but pace making the race and solo speed has served me well for a long time and it seems as though on paper that will be the case in this race.

GL if you play EZ !

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK STR THX for your take. Last I looked(just now) your horse was Ice cold on the board at 6/1. does that at all concern you? I also will post some takes I found on We the People. if you want to comment on them great. I am going with the #8 Barber Road and boxing with the #3 Nest. Yeah too bad you did not have the time to play the contest today. May run one for the Travers day in August so if I do maybe you will have some extra time. thx again.

[Easy-Rider 66]

#1 We The People
He's unproven in stressful spots as the wins have come against weaker and most recently while being allowed to sit on an uncontested lead with a modest 69h 4F Figure. While it's easy to scoff at the 2/1 morning line here seemingly offering no value as a runner that hasn't accomplished what the rest of the field has, the problem is he may not need to prove anything here yet again other than just making it 12 furlongs. Tough to pin down any rival that should go with him early here so race flow could be in his favor. You have to either key him on top or leave him completely out of the money.
1 - WE THE PEOPLE (30Δ) - He comes back quick off the Peter Pan and the last time he came back quickly hebounced to the moon. He looks good but I question the quick turnaround. TOP Two DELTA based on the bestlatest effort. 3-STAR-WORK RANKING OUR VERSION OF THE BULLET WORK off the Work Rankings. Third

first take is from Predecteform and the 2nd from Bruno with the works info

[Easy-Rider 66]

8 - BARBER ROAD (37Δ) - He wasn't moving well before the Derby, but he worked strongly for this and especially out of the gate. He looks like he can run all day should be a square price underneath. 4-STAR-WORKoff our morning observations.

This is what Bruno says about the #8. shades come off and the trainer Ortiz excellent with that move. he may be a tad too slow and up against it with the pace of the race like you stated but maybe Rosario can keep him closer. also shows a progressive pattern of velocity figures on TImeform's ratings. currently 8/1 off a 10/1 ML.

[Easy-Rider 66]

#8 Barber Road
Ran a better 6F Figure than 4F Figure for first time in career in Derby and we've seen this one have the capability to re-gain momentum and run on when seeing trouble. Should be going late and offers nice value to catch the bottom of exotics.

this is Predicteform's take on the #8

[str]

OK STR THX for your take. Last I looked(just now) your horse was Ice cold on the board at 6/1. does that at all concern you? I also will post some takes I found on We the People. if you want to comment on them great. I am going with the #8 Barber Road and boxing with the #3 Nest. Yeah too bad you did not have the time to play the contest today. May run one for the Travers day in August so if I do maybe you will have some extra time. thx again.

In plenty of races, it makes me wonder. not in a race like this.