[hotcross]

Saturday April 27

SERIES DALLAS +234 (odds: down 1-0 games) // 2 units to win 4.68

DALLAS +127 ML (game 2) // 2 units to win 2.54


Locked this in, adding to my position at the current odds. Also a wager for today's game, its an afternoon start time 2pm central local time.

[hotcross]

Results: Apr.25,27 = +1.54 units (1-1 W/L)
Playoffs Total = +18.42 units (14-14-1 W/L/D)


Dallas split the first two games of the Series in St.Louis, pretty much expected. I did worry about them losing game 1 and now I'm lopsided on the series bet with more risked at the lower odds. But if they had instead won the first game, I'd be kicking myself for not taking the +140 series odds before it started.

I still like them to win the series, but Dallas does do a couple things which makes me nervous. They commit a bunch of penalties. Fortunately to offset that, they have a very good penalty kill. But still its not exactly a recipe for success to be killing penalties more often than your opponent.

Also, cannot deny how good Binnington the Blues goalie is playing. He actually made today's game tighter than it should have been. Bishop on the other hand got the win today in game 2, but in both games he let in a couple softies....that needs to stop.

I'm not sure yet if I want to hedge out of any portion of the series bets, which are shown below here in the Pending list. My guess it will be around +100 to -110 range when the odds become available prior to game 3 in Dallas on Monday. It's not a very enticing proposition to hedge out at that point, but would allow me to shed some of the units risked by betting the other side on St.Louis. As a risk-taker, I'll probably wait and hope that Dallas wins game 3, and then be looking at much more favorable odds to think about hedging. I do think Dallas can win both games 3 and 4 at home...but it would be foolish to say they "will win both for certain." But what we saw Saturday in game 2 was the recipe for how to beat a very good goalie, or more rightly said, how the Blues fail to play effective defensive in front of him. Coupled with complete ineffectiveness of the Blues power play. The Stars captain Jamie Benn was a real shift-disturber today also, he was doing all he could to get under the skin of the Blues and I think it worked well, but he almost crossed the line in terms of putting himself in the penalty box. Gotta give him the benefit of the doubt as the veteran he is that he knew how far to push it.

pending:


SERIES DALLAS +234 (odds: down 1-0 games) // 2 units to win 4.68

SERIES DALLAS +145 // 5 units to win 7.25

EXACT OUTCOME SERIES DALLAS 4-1 games +995 // 0.6 unit to win 5.97

EXACT OUTCOME SERIES DALLAS 4-3 games +595 // 0.4 unit to win 2.38

[hotcross]

Results: Apr.29 = -0.60 unit (0-1 W/L)
Playoffs Total = +17.82 units (14-15-1 W/L/D)


Dallas loses game 3 at home in regulation, 4-3 score with a wild unexpected scoring flurry by both teams in the last half of the 3rd period. So the Stars cannot win the series in 5 games, that comes off my pending list.

Series price before the start of this game was originally offered at Dallas +100 vs St.Louis -110/-115, and saw it move to DAL +108 vs STL -120 right before gametime. That was expected, and didn't allow for a hedge opportunity at good +odds. The smart thing to do if I were to hedge would have been taking St.Louis for game 3 moneyline at +105, but couldn't bring myself to do it.

[hotcross]

Tuesday April 30

OVERTIME +280 BOS@CBJ // 0.5 unit to win 1.40

Looking for back-to-back OT games in this series

[odog11]

Tuesday April 30

OVERTIME +280 BOS@CBJ // 0.5 unit to win 1.40

Looking for back-to-back OT games in this series

Like this, should be tight. Thoughts on the total?

[hotcross]

Hard to say with the high quality goaltending. Think at least one of these next two games in Columbus goes Over.

How do you see it?

[hotcross]

adding ::

COLUMBUS -115 regulation only moneyline // 3.45 units to win 3
*push if game goes to Overtime

SAN JOSE +115 ML // 1 unit to win 1.15

SERIES SAN JOSE -112 (odds: tied 1-1 games) // 2.24 units to win 2

[hotcross]

2-1 yesterday for +3.65 units. Won both games, but no overtime

Wed. May 1

SERIES DALLAS +238 (odds: down 2-1 games) // 2.10 units to win 5

Once again, adding units to my series position at the current price. I'm on mobile right now, so no write-up with my logic.

Still thinking about any plays for tonight's two games.

[hotcross]

adding ::

NY ISLANDERS +105 first period moneyline // 1 unit to win 1.05
*push if tied end 1p

[hotcross]

adding ::

DALLAS -115 ML // 2.30 units to win 2


Line dropped some as we near gametime, so I'm comfortable with these odds for game 4.

[hotcross]

Results: Apr.30 + May 1 = +5.65 units (3-1-1 W/L/D)
Playoffs Total = +23.47 units (17-16-2 W/L/D)


pending:

SERIES SAN JOSE -112 (odds: tied 1-1 games) // 2.24 units to win 2

SERIES DALLAS +238 (odds: down 2-1 games) // 2.10 units to win 5

SERIES DALLAS +234 (odds: down 1-0 games) // 2 units to win 4.68

SERIES DALLAS +145 // 5 units to win 7.25

EXACT OUTCOME SERIES DALLAS 4-3 games +595 // 0.4 unit to win 2.38

[goduke]

Was hoping to see the bruins game 4 in this thread.

[hotcross]

Well I wasn't highly confident in yesterday's game 4 matchup. Colorado woulda been my favorite pick Thursday, but talked myself out of it, thinking no reason the Sharks couldn't beat them 2 in a row. The Sharks totally no-showed that game, at least after the first period. Were they resting? Toying with the Avs?

As for Boston, they had a good game, which I know you expected. Tukka played his best game. Columbus gave themselves no chance with the number of penalties they committed.

Don't remember seeing you elaborating on your reasons, other than you have the Sharks and Bruins ranked #1 and 2 (which I agree with, on paper), and you seem to indicate its Thornton's destiny to win the Cup against hls former team.

[hotcross]

Friday May 3

NY ISLANDERS +120 ML (game 4) // 1 unit to win 1.20

NY ISLANDERS +115 first period moneyline // 1 unit to win 1.15
*push if tied end 1p


Thinking Islanders win game 4 and then carry momentum to win game 5 next at home. They'll need a good start tonight.


Also I like Dallas to win game 5 tonight on the road. Will probably pass because I already have so many units at risk on them for the series bets.

[hotcross]

0-1-1 on Friday with the Islanders losing for -1 unit (they were tied 1-1 end of 1p)

Saturday May 4

OVERTIME +280 CBJ@BOS // 0.5 unit to win 1.40


Back to the well on this one, after they went to OT in games 1 and 2. The past two games 3 and 4 were decided in regulation.

I'm likely to play the same thing on the later game in San Jose, but still working on it.

[hotcross]

Results: May 3,4 = -1.50 units (0-2-1 W/L/D)
Playoffs Total = +21.97 units (17-18-3 W/L/D)


Sunday May 5

HEDGE:
SERIES ST.LOUIS +240 (odds: down 3-2 games) // 3.80 units to win 9.12


I still think Dallas wins the series, whether it be today, or if it goes to Game 7 on the road Tuesday. I don't typically hedge, but have to hedge in this situation. Because when I added units to Dallas at the improved odds (did so twice at +240 range Dallas), this is exactly the outcome that dictates hedging it. If we look at it like trading stocks, the series price for St.Louis is now +240 AND we know it CANNOT get any higher than what it is today.

So then the question becomes how much to hedge. Today, I decided to hedge the exact amount which ensures I break-even on the series at worse. Up until now, I had 9.10 units at risk on Dallas winning the series, for a total potential profit of 16.93 units. By hedging, I can either break-even, or win 13.13 units if Dallas goes on to win. I said from the beginning I think Dallas wins this series on the road in game 5 or 7.

pending:

SERIES SAN JOSE -112 (odds: tied 1-1 games) // 2.24 units to win 2

SERIES DALLAS +238 (odds: down 2-1 games) // 2.10 units to win 5

SERIES DALLAS +234 (odds: down 1-0 games) // 2 units to win 4.68

SERIES DALLAS +145 // 5 units to win 7.25

EXACT OUTCOME SERIES DALLAS 4-3 games +595 // 0.4 unit to win 2.38

[hotcross]

St.Louis won game 6 on the road, 4-1 score and never trailed in the game, after an early goal. It was a tight 2-1 game about 8-minutes into the 3rd period, when a hard slapshot hit Bishop apparently in the collarbone. Don't know yet if he broke it, or not, maybe a bruise but it was painful and he was writhing on the ice while the Blues buried the follow-up shot. Then they scored pretty soon again, at which time Bishop was pulled from the game.

So now I am freerolling on Dallas in game 7 on Tuesday night on the road. Not good if Bishop could be out for the game. He'll probably play unless the bone is broken, but still his physical range of movement is gonna be compromised.

It was a good hedge today and sensible as I explained in the post above. I actually considered hedging more units than I did, knowing that St.Louis will be the home favorite for game 7 if they won today. Opted instead for the break-even amount because I believed in Dallas advancing. I still have that small bonus amount on Dallas exact series outcome 4-3 games which was not included in my break-even calculation.

[hotcross]

Monday May 6

OVERTIME +280 BOS@CBJ // 1 unit to win 2.80

Almost got Overtime in Game 5, so bump it up to one unit risk and try again.

[eddycash]

Is a 3-way moneyline draw bet the same thing as betting the game to goto overtime?

[hotcross]

Eddy yes, sometimes better odds that way also

[eddycash]

Thanks. Yes it was 20 cents better to bet the draw at +290 instead of ot at +270

[hotcross]

Good grief, they peppered Tukka and got a bunch of power plays but couldn't beat him at all. 3-0 score final Boston advances.

I'll pass on Sharks. Got my smallish series bet pending, and something feels like Colorado could win tonight to force game 7.

[eddycash]

Dang we bet the wrong game for ot.

[hotcross]

Yeah I didn't want to chase it. Actually I had both game 6 winners correct in my mind, but I thought Boston was going to be the high scoring game.

Tonight freerolling my big series bets on Dallas, glad I hedged, just can sit back and enjoy the game. I do think Dallas at San Jose is the most intriguing matchup for the Western Conference finals, of the remaining possibilities. Otherwise, Colorado at St.Louis. As we know, St.Louis was the hot team for the last half of the regular season.

[eddycash]

I have 2units to win 4.8units on Dallas tonight. Not sure if I should hedge a little bit.

[thekoreanmang]

I have 2units to win 4.8units on Dallas tonight. Not sure if I should hedge a little bit.

Let it ride baby.

[hotcross]

What a terrible effort by Dallas, both game 6 and 7. Bishop carried the team game 7 with 52 saves into double overtime, but the Stars players didn't have anything to give these past two games. Blues dominated the stat sheet, and maybe I'm downplaying their effort, but it looked to me Dallas was running with their tank on empty.

I expected Dallas to continue doing what they did so well in Game 2 of the series. They played a dirty style that game, extracirricular pushing after the whistles, etc. Threw the opponent off their game. But even when Dallas won games 4 and 5, those were cleaner games using speed. Never saw much of the in your face style since game 2. Disappointing.

[hotcross]

I have 2units to win 4.8units on Dallas tonight. Not sure if I should hedge a little bit.

Eddy, I didn't see your question until after the game started, and maybe it was best I didn't answer because woulda told you not to hedge last night. The only reason I did it, was timing and correct price available once Dallas had the 3-2 series lead after winning game 5, as I explained in post #331.

I learned something though. If this situation comes up if the future, I will literally make the hedge bet for the ENTIRE amount of the potential win amount of the original bet. Reason why is that maximizes the freeroll. Numbers look like this:

Total at risk on Dallas series = 9.10 units
Potential win = 16.93 units for Dallas win, not hedged
Average odds = +186 on Dallas (per unit)
//////////////////
HEDGE:
Maximum freeroll once Blues price was +240
Risk 16.93 units @ +240 to win 40.63

OUTCOMES:

> if Dallas won series = Net profit 0 units won

> if St.Louis won series = Net profit 23.70 units won (40.63 won - 16.93 lost)

//////////////

The mentality has to be robotic. I'm saying if the decision is made to hedge, don't just hedge, instead freeroll it to the max.

But you had Dallas up 3-2 games and now changing your mind???? If Dallas wins, you're an idiot for canceling out your winning bet. These are what the mind says inside. Look at the math, if I were to convert it to a freeroll again in the future, I would maximize the potential payout.... Otherwise don't hedge at all and just let the original pick ride.

I'm not just saying this because the Blues won.

[eddycash]

Thanks for the advice. Thankfully I hedged 0.8x by parlaying blues ml with sharks ml to win 1.6x. Let's keep winning!

[hotcross]

PLAYOFFS RECAP: Round 2 results: Thursday April 25 – Wed. May 8

---- Apr.25 – Game 1 -----
- 1.00 DALLAS +140 ML ---> score 3-2 road loss at STL

---- Apr.27 – Game 2-----
+2.54 DALLAS +127 ML ---> score 4-2 road win at STL

---- Apr.30 – Game 3-----
- 0.50 OVERTIME BOS@CBJ +280
+3.00 COLUMBUS -115 regulation only ML ---> score 2-1 home win in regulation vs BOS
+1.15 SAN JOSE +115 ML ---> score 4-2 road win at COL

---- May 1 – Game 3-----
+0 push NY ISLANDERS +105 first period moneyline ---> score 1-1 tie end 1p (Final 5-2NYI road loss at CAR)

---- May 1 – Game 4-----
+2.00 DALLAS -115 ML ---> score 4-2 home win vs STL

---- May 3 – Game 4-----
+0 push NY ISLANDERS +115 first period moneyline ---> score 1-1 tie end 1p
- 1.00 NY ISLANDERS +120 ML --->score 5-2 road loss at CAR (CAR sweeps series)

---- May 4 – Game 5-----
- 0.50 OVERTIME CBJ@BOS +280 --->score 4-3 CBJ road loss in regulation at BOS

---- May 6 – Game 6-----
- 1.00 OVERTIME BOS@CBJ +280 --->score 3-0 CBJ home loss vs BOS (BOS wins series 4-2 games)


---- SERIES BETS – Round 2-----

+2.00 SERIES SAN JOSE -112 (odds: tied 1-1 games) ---> won 4-3 games vs COL

- 5.00 SERIES DALLAS +145 ---> lost 4-3 games vs STL
- 2.00 SERIES DALLAS +243 (odds: down 0-1 games)
- 2.10 SERIES DALLAS +238 (odds: down 2-1 games)
- 0.60 EXACT OUTCOME SERIES DALLAS 4-1 games +995
- 0.40 EXACT OUTCOME SERIES DALLAS 4-3 games +595

HEDGE:
+9.12 SERIES ST.LOUIS +240 (odds: down 3-2 games) ---> won 4-3 games vs DAL

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PLAYOFFS ROUND 2 = +5.71 units (W/L = 6-10-2 = .375 pct)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PLAYOFFS ROUND 1 = +16.88 units (W/L = 13-13-1 = .500 pct)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

REGULAR SEASON = +15.20 units (W/L = 112-149-6 = .429 pct)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OVERALL THREAD = +37.79 units (W/L = 131-172-9 = .432 pct)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[hotcross]

PLAYOFFS ROUND 3 = CONFERENCE FINALS

Thursday May 9

CAROLINA +133 ML (game 1) // 1 unit to win 1.33

OVERTIME +300 CAR@BOS // 1.25 units to win 3.75


Here we go! Conference Finals time. Game 1 tonight in Boston is gonna be a tight game. Carolina hasn't played a game since their series sweep win at home on Friday May 3, while Boston had to finish off Columbus on the road in game 6 on Monday May 6.

Notice both these picks are one units tonight, reflecting this being a difficult game to pick, in my opinion. Now I've bumped up the Overtime prop pick by a quarter-unit, and I'd say again its probably a waste of money. But I've been chasing another Boston OT game, and it could actually be part of Carolina's gameplan tonight to grind this first game as much as possible. After all, Boston has played a 7-game + 6-game series. Carolina took 7-games to defeat the defending champs in Round 1, but then a 4-game sweep in Round 2.

So let's see the Hurricanes with their hustle style vs the superb special teams of the Bruins. I feel like going bigger on Carolina to win this game 1, but kept second-guessing it. I don't personally like to play the +1.5 spread puckline, but this is probably a game where it hits. Odds are -215 for Carolina +1.5 tonight.

[hotcross]

Results: May 9 = -2.25 units (0-2 W/L)
Playoffs Total = +20.34 units (19-25-3 W/L/D)


Hmmm. Some one-sided penalty calls to start the third period in favor of the Bruins caused Carolina to cough up their 2-1 lead with 2 power play goals scored by Boston in 28-seconds. The 3-2 score held until 2-minutes left in the game, where Boston hit the empty net twice for a 5-2 final score.

[hotcross]

Saturday May 11

ST.LOUIS -0.5 +185 regulation win // 2.40 units to win 4.44


I have a plan for this series, let's see how it unfolds.

[eddycash]

i went sharks game 1 and series 1 unit lets see what happens

[hotcross]

ok Eddy. If Sharks lose game 1, then I will be putting a unit or two on series Sharks before game 2. Odds could be anywhere from +150 to +225 if that happens.

Think the Sharks are the better team and should win the series. But I keep losing on series bets against the Blues, so I figured wait out game 1 and try for better odds.

Strictly a numbers play.