1. #1
    hotcross
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    Hotcross NHL 2018-19 Thread

    Picks will be tracked for the NHL again this season, my second NHL year on SBR.

    Last year was profitable, although only .500 win percentage.
    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...l#post27850234

    I typically spread my units risked between 1-5.

    Opening night is Wed, Oct 3 but will hold-off a bit before jumping in.

    My leans would be Toronto (but too high juice unless you take puckline), and Anaheim (road dog).
    Not playing either of them.
    175 pts

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  2. #2
    grey area
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    Have a great season my friend.

  3. #3
    veriableodds
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    gl this season i was out early last year...lol

  4. #4
    oChRoNiCo
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    GL to you this year hotcross, I hope we can both be profitable again!

  5. #5
    hotcross
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    thanks gents and Good luck to all of you

    I really want to focus on increasing my win percentage, which means I should be making less volume of picks.
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  6. #6
    Philmill
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    So Glad Hockey is back....

    GL Hotcross

  7. #7
    hotcross
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    Thursday Oct. 4

    CAROLINA -154 ML // 1.54 units to win 1

    Yeah it's chalky, but this year I'm looking for wins.

    Reason for the pick is two-fold. Home opening night under the new owner who wants to win. This provides the extra motivation. #2 the Hurricanes are stacked on defense, and although they just had to acquire a goalie due to Scott Darling injury, they are favored heavily against the Tavares-less NY Islanders for a reason in this game. I would make it a bigger play and/or play the puckline if it wasn't for the goalie situation. But still they have Mrazek and now McElhinney.


    I might have one more pick for Thursday. And no, my plays this year won't be all high favorites!
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  8. #8
    hotcross
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    My record is 0-1 after Thursday's result in Carolina. They outshot the visiting Islanders literally 2.3-to-1 ratio, but couldn't score until a 6-on-5 equalizer late in the game which forced Overtime...but they also took a tripping penalty with 2-seconds remaining in Regulation, which allowed NYI to begin the Overtime with 4-on-3 skater advantage, and Mathew Barzal, the skilled 21-year-old Center, made a sharp cross-ice pass to Josh Bailey who nailed the one-timer for the win.

    Slightly disappointing to lose the first pick. On the bright side, I no longer have the pressure of trying to stay undefeated on the season.

    I didn't follow-thru Carolina tonight on back-to-back games as the visitor in Columbus, who also played last night and won on the road in Overtime at Detroit.

    Got one pick for Saturday already locked in. Looking at a couple other games but they might not make the cut for me.

    Saturday Oct.6

    CALGARY -1.5 +135 puckline // 1.60 units to win 2.16


    And just a friendly reminder,
    there is a day-game Saturday being played in Gothenburg, Sweden = the Oilers vs New Jersey
    175 pts

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  9. #9
    hotcross
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    Saturday Oct.6 - adding ::

    PARLAY 2-TEAMS: +160
    BUFFALO -132 ML
    CALGARY -209 ML
    Risk 1 unit to win 1.60

    See both teams having big bounceback games tonight, after looking terrible in their first games. I pulled the trigger too early on the Calgary puckline which is now available at +150, but I still fully expect the Flames to win.
    175 pts

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  10. #10
    hotcross
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    won the Puckline and the Parlay on Saturday, bringing season record up to 2-1 W/L (parlays only count as 1 win/loss)

    will tally up Units record weekly

    Sunday Oct.7

    UNDER 6.5 -102 TOR@CHI // 1.02 units to win 1

    My intention this year is not to be playing many Totals, but this game I think the coaches will impart their will. Also the Maple Leafs are starting backup goalie Garret Sparks, so it feels like a spot where the Leafs will see the need to play a defensive-minded game in front of him.
    175 pts

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  11. #11
    hotcross
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    Week 1 results:

    --------Oct.4----------
    -1.54 CAROLINA -154 ML ---> score 2-1 home Overtime loss vs NYI
    --------Oct.6----------
    +2.16 CALGARY -1.5 +135 puckline ---> score 7-4 home win vs VANC
    +1.60 PARLAY 2-TEAMS:
    CALGARY -209 ML
    BUFFALO -132 ML ---> score 3-1 home win vs NYR
    --------Oct.7----------
    -1.02 UNDER 6.5 -102 TOR@CHI ---> score 7-6 CHI home Overtime loss vs TOR

    -------------------------------------------------------------------
    Week 1 = +1.20 units (W/L = 2-2 = .500 pct)

    (parlays only count as 1 win/loss)


    175 pts

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  12. #12
    hotcross
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    Monday Oct.8

    ANAHEIM -0.5 -118 regulation win // 1.18 units to win 1

    Feel very strongly about the play, but making it just one unit after losing Sunday's pick pretty badly.

    This is Anaheim's home opener, after starting the season with two Divisional wins on the road at San Jose and Arizona. Goalie John Gibson has played like a superstar so far. Detroit comes in 0-1-1 after losing to Columbus at home on opening night, then losing last night at the LA Kings.

    Note: Most books do offer this type of regulation only odds line. The -0.5 goals means exactly the same thing as picking Anaheim on the 3-way line....so if the game goes to Overtime, this wager loses.
    175 pts

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  13. #13
    hotcross
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    Tuesday Oct.9

    UNDER 6 -112 VANC@CAR // 1.12 units to win 1
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  14. #14
    hotcross
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    not a nice start to the week. Anaheim did win Monday's game but in Overtime. Then last night, I wrongly thought Markstrom would play well in goal for Vancouver, but he really did not.

    Tonight, have a big play, this is not a chase in my mind....Truly like the play and believe it wins.

    Wed. Oct.10

    VEGAS -0.5 +202 regulation win // 5 units to win 10.10

    Here are my bullet point reasons:

    Rematch of the Stanley Cup Final, game starts at 8pm eastern in Washington

    Coaches: Barry Trotz no longer in WSH (he's now the Islanders coach), Todd Reirden new coach vs. Gerard Gallant still with Vegas

    Vegas record on the young season = 1-2 W/L with the win coming in a shootout. Don't want to start 1-3, plus they have a back-to-back tomorrow night at Pittsburgh. And then Saturday at Philly to finish-up this road trip. Two more tough opponents ahead.

    Washington record = 1-1 with the loss being in Overtime in a wild game losing 7-6 score at Pittsburgh. The date of that game was last Thursday Oct.4 so the boys may be a little slow tonight. Looking ahead, their next 4 games are all against Eastern Conference opponents, including a divisional back-to-back against New Jersey tomorrow night....I think they would rather focus on beating the upcoming foes.

    Goalies = Marc-Andre Fleury vs. Braden Holtby. Neither goalie has got off to a great start on the season. Fleury is not expected to start tomorrow night when Vegas plays his old team at Pittsburgh. He lost the last game at Buffalo, letting in 4 of only 17 shots by the Sabres on Monday night. Buffalo is not a team the Golden Knights are too familiar with, however Washington is top of mind for him, and I think he bounces back tonight.

    You do not want to take the lower odds standard moneyline on Vegas in this game, because if the game does happen to go to Overtime, well...the Capitals are pretty good there. Vegas in regulation.
    175 pts

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  15. #15
    hotcross
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    that hurt, Vegas lost 5-2 in Washington last night. I counted 5 posts hit by Vegas shots. That wasn't why they lost, actually they looked bad on defense, but they still coulda had a couple more goals in that game. Kuznetsov had an incredible game for Washington with 1 goal and 3 assists.

    Thurs. Oct.11

    EDMONTON +150 ML // 4 units to win 6

    /////////////////////////////
    PARLAY 2-TEAMS: +550
    EDMONTON +150 ML
    VEGAS +160
    Risk 1 unit to win 5.50


    I've got Edmonton winning tonight in Boston, which probably will be a surprise upset for most people. Edmonton lost the opening game played in Sweden, but since then they spent the entire time in Boston and held practices there, from what I've read. Oilers also have a good prior history against the Bruins.

    The parlay is just in case Vegas bounces back and pulls a big upset in Pittsburgh tonight.

    I might have another pick or two. The entire schedule is on the eastern half of the country tonight.
    175 pts

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  16. #16
    hotcross
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    adding ::

    MINNESOTA -0.5 +105 regulation win // 2 units to win 2.10
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  17. #17
    hotcross
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    0-3 on Thursday with Minnesota winning in comeback fashion, but in Overtime

    Sat. Oct.13

    EDMONTON -105 ML // 4.20 units to win 4

    UNDER 6 +104 VGS@PHI // 1.50 units to win 1.56



    more plays to come today....
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  18. #18
    hotcross
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    Sat. Oct.13 - adding ::

    ST.LOUIS -0.5 +145 regulation win // 1.56 units to win 2.26

    Locked this in for tonight. Chicago has played Overtime in all 4 of their games so far. 3 Road games. Tonight's game is at home but that's been a lot of extra hockey and travel. They won the first 2 games, lost the next 2. Overs hit all 4 games, by the way.

    St.Louis meantime is better than their 1-1-1 start to the season. All 3 home games, lost the first 2 (one OT loss), before beating Calgary 5-3 on Thursday.
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  19. #19
    hotcross
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    Sat. Oct.13 - adding ::

    ARIZONA -0.5 +115 regulation win // 3.48 units to win 4.00

    Hosting Buffalo at home in the desert. Goalie announced for Buffalo is Linus Ullmark, he is not bad and has a big body. Arizona has not announced the starter yet, but should be Antti Raanta who has a 1.96 GAA in three games this season.
    175 pts

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  20. #20
    harbor kid
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    Good luck with the remaining games sir. I look forward to your picks and analysis.

  21. #21
    hotcross
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    2-2 on Saturday for a small half-unit profit. The morning picks won! but the added evening picks failed. Need to watch myself picking too many games.

    Sun. Oct.14

    SAN JOSE +135 regulation win // 1 unit to win 1.35

    Last game of the road trip for San Jose this morning in New Jersey. The Sharks have not played since Thursday's OT loss to the NYR, which was an unexpected loss, giving them a record of 2-2-1 for 5 points in the standings. After this game, they don't play until the upcoming Thursday at home.

    New Jersey are 2-0 so far, winning the opening game in Sweden against the Oilers 5-2 score, then easily beat the Washington Capitals 6-0 score who started a rookie backup goalie and gave a lackluster effort.

    Interesting the Sharks are a thin road favorite for today's game. They have beat NJ in the last 4 meetings, which date back to Nov.2016

    My record when using this "Regulation Win" odds line are pitiful so far this season.
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  22. #22
    hotcross
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    Sun. Oct.14 - adding ::

    CAROLINA +230 regulation win // 1 unit to win 2.30

    ST.LOUIS +100 regulation win // 1 unit to win 1.00

    Today's schedule only has 3 games.
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  23. #23
    hotcross
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    I should have noted all 3 of these games are -0.5 goals spread to win in regulation (same as previous days).
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  24. #24
    hotcross
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    0-3 day on Sunday, that's the second time this season already with 0-3 day. This week 2 was awful, but not the end of the world. Will get this turned around.

    Week 2 results:

    --------Oct.8----------
    -1.18 ANAHEIM -0.5 -118 regulation ---> score 3-2 home Shootout win vs DET

    --------Oct.9----------

    -1.02 UNDER 6.5 -102 TOR@CHI ---> score 7-6 CHI home Overtime loss vs TOR

    --------Oct.10----------

    -5.00 VEGAS -0.5 +202 regulation ---> score 5-2 road loss at WSH

    --------Oct.11----------

    -4.00 EDMONTON +150 ML ---> score 4-1 road loss at BOS
    -2.00 MINNESOTA -0.5 +105 regulation ---> score 4-3 home Overtime win vs CHI
    -1.00 PARLAY 2-TEAMS:
    EDMONTON +150 ML
    VEGAS +160 ML ---> score 4-2 road loss at PITT

    --------Oct.13----------
    +4.00 EDMONTON -105 ML ---> score 2-1 road win at NYR
    +1.56 UNDER 6 +104 VGS@PHI ---> score 1-0 VGS road win at PHI
    - 1.56 MINNESOTA -0.5 +145 regulation ---> score 4-3 road Overtime loss at CHI
    - 3.48 ARIZONA -0.5 +115 ---> score 3-0 home loss vs BUF

    --------Oct.14----------

    -1.00 SAN JOSE -0.5 +135 regulation ---> score 3-2 road loss at NJ
    -1.00 CAROLINA -0.5 +230 regulation ---> score 3-1 road loss at WPG
    -1.00 ST.LOUIS -0.5 +100 regulation ---> score 3-2 home loss vs ANA

    -------------------------------------------------------------------
    Week 2 = -16.68 units (W/L = 2-11 = .153 pct)

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    OVERALL THREAD = -13.58 units (W/L = 7-16-1 = .304 pct)
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    175 pts

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  25. #25
    hotcross
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    Monday Oct.15

    MONTREAL -167 regulation only moneyline // 2 units to win 1.19
    *push if game goes to Overtime


    This appears to be a spot for Detroit to get their first win on the season against Montreal who are starting Antti Niemi in net again tonight. They don't play until Thursday in Tampa Bay, then Saturday at the Florida Panthers. However, they have a total of 6 defensemen out of their regular lineup, 4 of which are newly announced scratches. Therefore, it actually looks like they are poised to lose all of the games this week!

    Note: Just to say it one more time, many books do offer this "Regulation Only Moneyline" which results in a push if the game goes to Overtime. This is NOT the 3-way odds line. 5dimes offers this, although I'm not playing there...other books also have it. I like this option sometimes because it removes the outcome of the 3-on-3 overtime period and shootout if the game goes there.


    still thinking about the other 3 games on tonight's schedule....
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  26. #26
    hotcross
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    Monday Oct.15 - adding ::

    UNDER 6 +112 DAL@OTT// 1.25 units to win 1.40


    Ottawa has 5 or 6 forwards out with injury for this game, they will dress 11 forwards and 7 defensemen. I'm not really sure how they beat the LA Kings 5-1 score on Saturday - they only had 22 shots! Goalie matchup for tonight's game is Ben Bishop at Craig Anderson - who saved 36 of 37 shots in that game against the Kings.

    Senators have been sketchy on defense, until last game...even tho the Kings had 37 shots, it only amounted to 12-14 real scoring chances. The main thing, Dallas has a great Power Play clicking at the moment, so I believe the gameplan for Ottawa will be to slow this game pace.
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  27. #27
    hotcross
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    2-0 last night. Didn't see much on tonight's 8-game schedule that I liked.

    Tuesday Oct.16

    VEGAS -195 ML // 5.50 units to win 2.82

    Buffalo into Vegas tonight for a rematch of last Monday's game on Oct.8, which saw Buffalo win 4-2 at home.

    Sabres are 3-2-0 on the season. Vegas 2-4-0 including a Shootout win.

    Vegas around -200 favorite at home. I say they get it done tonight, one way or another. But will probably be a close one.
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  28. #28
    hotcross
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    won the Vegas pick on Tuesday, then skipped last night

    Thursday Oct.18

    TAMPA BAY -1.5 -108 puckline // 1.08 units to win 1

    ARIZONA -1.5 +370 alternative puckline // 1 unit to win 3.70
    175 pts

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  29. #29
    hotcross
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    won both picks Thursday, making 5-0 for the week thus far

    Friday Oct.19

    MINNESOTA +127 ML // 2 units to win 2.54
    *Overtime included

    MINNESOTA +120 regualtion only moneyline // 1.25 units to win 1.50
    *push if game goes to Overtime


    Taking the road team vs. Dallas Stars tonight. Both teams have a couple of injuries, but RW Alexander Radulov is newly scratched tonight for Dallas. The Stars have not produced much scoring outside their Line 1 skaters. They lost Monday at Ottawa, then Tuesday at New Jersey.

    Minnesota has a good Penalty Kill and with goalie Dubnyk starting tonight with his .940 Save percentage. Minnesota hasn't looked very great this season either, but beat Arizona 2-1 in their last game. Wild has to play tomorrow at home vs. Tampa Bay, so I think their effort should be in tonight's game against this divisional opponent.

    Once again, I am utilizing the "regulation only moneyline" this time splitting a portion of the risk, coupled with the standard OT included moneyline.
    175 pts

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  30. #30
    hotcross
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    Week 3 results:

    --------Oct.15----------
    +1.19 MONTREAL -167 regulation ML ---> score 7-3 home win vs DET
    +1.40 UNDER 6 +112 DAL@OTT ---> score 4-1 OTT home win vs DAL

    --------Oct.16----------
    +2.82 VEGAS -195 ML ---> score 4-1 home win vs BUF

    --------Oct.18----------
    +1.00 TAMPA BAY -1.5 -108 puckline ---> score 3-1 home win vs DET
    +3.70 ARIZONA -1.5 +370 alternative puckline ---> score 4-1 road win at CHI

    --------Oct.19----------
    +2.54 MINNESOTA +127 ML ---> score 3-1 road win at DAL
    +1.50 MINNESOTA +120 regulation ML

    ---------------------------------------------------------
    Week 3 = +14.15 units (W/L = 7-0)

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    OVERALL THREAD = +0.57 units (W/L = 14-16-1 = .466 pct)
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    175 pts

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    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 03/18/2019


  31. #31
    pimike
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    Nice week 3 wow!

    7-0

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  32. #32
    hotcross
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    Thanks Mike.

    I liked a couple games Saturday and Sunday but decided to hold off and just enjoy the winning week.

    Was that chicken shiiit of me or what? LOL
    175 pts

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  33. #33
    pimike
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    Quote Originally Posted by hotcross View Post
    Thanks Mike.

    I liked a couple games Saturday and Sunday but decided to hold off and just enjoy the winning week.

    Was that chicken shiiit of me or what? LOL
    Lol

    Not at all. Nothing wrong with enjoying the weekend bud.

    Keep it going. Iíll be checking in here.

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  34. #34
    hotcross
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    Tuesday Oct.23

    CALGARY -105 ML // 3.15 units to win 3

    UNDER 5.5 -115 SJ@NSH // 1.15 units to win 1


    might make a play on the later games....still checking numbers....
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  35. #35
    hotcross
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    Tuesday Oct.23 - adding ::

    UNDER 6 -110 CGY@MTL // 2.20 units to win 2
    -split-
    UNDER 5.5 +110 CGY@MTL // 2 units to win 2.20


    still might make a play on the later games....
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