2-0 SO FAR...Need one more for a clean sweep...
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11-13-13 09:44 PM #71
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11-13-13 10:04 PM #72
For those of you not participating in the chatroom, we're currently having a conversion of how to handle a string of losses without eating into the substantial profit margin we've generated to this point (or some of you, just starting to this point)
There seem to be two streams of thought...
a) Eat 3 game losses - would have happened 8 times this year. The system (currently +370) would be more like 170.
b) Redistribute after 3 game losses - Take total amount lost and divide by number of teams currently "cleared" - aka, not the ones currently on a chase - and chase.
Given the high win %, B seems to be a good way to keep profits up and manage money the best way.
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11-13-13 10:10 PM #73
Good idea. I like redistributing.
Originally Posted by kcava
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11-14-13 12:01 AM #74
3-0 tonight and 27/30 teams are currently in a cleared state. Life is good, fellow seekers of profits!
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11-14-13 02:17 AM #75
Totally agree with B. Originally Posted by kcava
If you wanna be greedy id look into maybe being a little more aggresive with the 5-6 teams with the real high winning percentage on the spreadsheet so far. I was looking at some team by team stats and the ones that are doing well are really no fluke because they have extremely talented defense/goalies along with a below average offense to go along with it. Their goals per game and goals allowed per game really do reflect their winning percentages in the system so far. The teams i would focus in on are:
Boston, Carolina, Colorado, New Jersey, Montreal, Minnesota, and Philly
I think we are enough into the season that these numbers/stars have enough merit
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11-14-13 02:48 AM #76
very interesting kcava
i'm new to NHL but i understand the idea
I used to do the same in tennis, chosing the "safest" game spread for the underdog and it does work
good luck, i'll follow our thread
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11-14-13 04:20 AM #77
cooler54
i got your private message but can't answer since i don't have 20 messages on this forum yet.
i'll start a thread in 2 minutes in the Tennis forum so we can discuss
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11-14-13 07:11 AM #78
I am a seeker of profits large or small as a steady pace WILL win the race with this system... Originally Posted by kcava
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11-14-13 07:19 AM #79
Nice little profit last night as i went 3-0..Tuesday was 9-1 with a noce profit so the system is proving itself......7 games on tab for this evening. Even thinking its time for some overs i will not try and pick and choose these games. I will bet the unders on all of them...My units are 15.00 now, thinking i will step that up as time goes by...GLTA
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11-14-13 10:24 AM #80
I have no lines at 6/6.5 I'm completely lost at how this works
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11-14-13 10:28 AM #81
What book do you use? Originally Posted by Tkost051
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11-14-13 11:05 AM #82
You need a book like Pinnacle, you can chose your Goals from 4.5 to 6.5
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11-14-13 11:07 AM #83
kcava which under games are u betting on today ? i thought
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11-14-13 11:13 AM #84
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11-14-13 11:16 AM #85
what do u got ? can't register ?
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11-14-13 11:44 AM #86
All of them. That's the point of the system. Every game is a play! Originally Posted by tipsadontlikehim
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11-14-13 01:53 PM #87
Even though there may be some overs lurking out there, i will play all 7 games tonight to the under with my unit amount of 15.00.....I have been using 5Dimes for this..
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11-14-13 09:49 PM #88
Guys if you just straight bet the same amount on all the under 6/6.5 games everyday, in the long run the juice is gonna eat away any profit regardless of the high winning percentage. Best way to do it is the way kcava outlined earlier or a labby line for each team
Last edited by cooler54; 11-14-13 at 10:29 PM.
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11-15-13 05:57 AM #89
On 15.00 units last night had a net lose of 20.25. Still up nicely since i began using this system..
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11-15-13 07:52 AM #90
Are you chasing or simply straight betting for 1 game? If you're straight betting, that will eat into your profits in the long-run. See coolers post above yours as well. Originally Posted by HockeyRocks
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11-15-13 11:07 AM #91
Agreed Kcava.....Hockeyrocks you're gonna lose money eventually doing that...i promise ya. I really believe this system will work if u just chase a team up to 3 games and redistribute the losses to other teams buddy.
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11-15-13 05:10 PM #92
Been away all day...For an old guy, im not new to gambling, just new to something like this. I have open ears and appreciate the concern. Can you explain to me what my strategy should be. I will hold off on tonight until i hear from you...TY in advance.. Originally Posted by cooler54
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11-15-13 07:56 PM #93
HockeyRocks, Originally Posted by HockeyRocks
I think that he is saying to chase each loss up to three games. If a team looses three games in a row, then take the entire loss amount (maybe 12-15 units) and redistribute those units between the other games. So, rather than betting two units a game it may be 3.5 units a game unit the lost units are made up. I hope that I explained it right. This is the strategy that I will be using from now on.
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11-16-13 12:19 AM #94
Example Originally Posted by HockeyRocks
NYR/NJD Under 6.5, -200
Bet to win 1 unit PER team. $15 for NYR and $15 for NJD. So you'd bet $60 to win $30.
If win - great. Move onto the next game. If lose, attribute $30 of loss to NYR, 30 to NJD.
Next game....
NJD/MON Under 6.5, Odds -150. You take the $30 you lost previous + 15 for unit chase for NJD + 15 for unit chase for Montreal + X units if Montreal lost their previous game. In this scenario, assuming Montreal won their last game, you would bet to win $60, so you'd bet $90.
If you win - great, next game. If you lose, $45 per team, etc etc
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11-17-13 11:34 PM #95
First week playing this system and im up 57 units. Hopefully, even more good things ahead
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11-18-13 07:21 AM #96
Why am I only now seeing this. Seems legit! I'll give it a wack! BOL!
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11-18-13 08:07 AM #97
lots of low scoring games this year so far
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11-18-13 02:22 PM #98
That's part of the reason why I conceptualized it. When you think about it, 7 goals (which is what we need to lose) is so many goals to be scored in a hockey game, let alone 2-3-4 games in a row. Obviously, as the spreadsheet shows, this does happen - but I think the redistribution system (with small units, as I have) really emphasizes the one thing most chase systems don't - play as many games as possible to up your profits. Most chase systems on this forum are up 40-50 units at this point of the year. That always seemed too slow to me. Perhaps those systems are better used with high unit numbers. With low numbers, I feel like this is relatively bulletproof - but time will continue to tell. So far, +408 for the year 25% of the way over is happy days! Originally Posted by PuckIt
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11-18-13 07:46 PM #99
"I think the redistribution system (with small units, as I have) really emphasizes the one thing most chase systems don't - play as many games as possible to up your profits"
I agree and i wonder how doing it this way could work on other chase systems...particularly over/under systems for baseball and basketball. Playing with such a small unit size lets you bet more confidently and less scared, and at the same time you are still racking up alot of units because you're playing so many games.
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11-22-13 03:20 PM #100
Where'd ya all go? Not on the Doc.
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11-22-13 03:42 PM #101
Interested in trying this out tonight.
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11-22-13 03:54 PM #102
Following the system on every game tonight. Here's to see how this plays out.
211035609-1 11/22/13 4:53pm $2.30 $1.00 Pending 11/22/13 10:05pm NHL Hockey 9 Columbus Blue Jackets/Vancouver Canucks Under 6 -230* 211035548-1 11/22/13 4:53pm $1.90 $1.00 Pending 11/22/13 10:05pm NHL Hockey 7 Tampa Bay Lightning/Anaheim Ducks Under 6½ -190* 211035502-1 11/22/13 4:53pm $1.65 $1.00 Pending 11/22/13 9:05pm NHL Hockey 5 Florida Panthers/Calgary Flames Under 6½ -165* 211035457-1 11/22/13 4:52pm $2.10 $1.00 Pending 11/22/13 7:05pm NHL Hockey 3 Montreal Canadiens/Washington Capitals Under 6½ -210* 211035400-1 11/22/13 4:52pm $1.60 $1.00 Pending 11/22/13 7:05pm NHL Hockey 1 New York Islanders/Pittsburgh Penguins Under 6½ -160*
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11-22-13 05:41 PM #103
The chase games tonight would be Montreal, NY Islanders and Anaheim. Correct me if i am wrong...
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11-22-13 07:33 PM #104
Not sure as I just started, but the NYI looks like their game is already head for 7 as it's at 3-3 now in the 2nd. Hopefully the Canadiens/Capitols game stays under 7. As it had the highest juice along with the Jackets/Canucks game.
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11-22-13 08:37 PM #105
Every game is a play, always! Originally Posted by HockeyRocks
tsimmns - Good to have you on board, your unit size (.50 per team) looks good. I like small units relative to bankroll for this system, because of the juice.
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