[kcava]

2013/2014 Season Progress: +293 Units
Average Win Percentage: 68%
Average Losing Percentage: 31%
Average Push Percentage : 1%

NHL Under System

1. Take the highest game total you're given on your site and bet the under. This generally means you're going to be betting that any given game is under 6.0 or 6.5. You will be paying extra juice for this (ranges from -155 to -225, usually)

2. Bet to win 1 unit on each team. If you lose, split the amount you wagered between the two teams. You will chase that amount + 1 unit on the next game.

3. My idea was that if a losing streak hit 5, I would stop, divide the loss by 30 (all teams) and start again. That said, no team has hit 5 yet - I'm not opposed to taking the loss either.

Example

St. Louis Blues / Montreal Canadians, Under 6.5, -160
Bet: 320 to win 200 (1 unit each team)
Win: Clears Chase
Loss: 160 attributed to St. Louis / 160 attributed to Canadians

Assuming a loss, during the next St. Louis game (let's say it's against the NY Rangers) you would again select the highest line (usually under 6.5) and wager to win 1 unit for the Blues, 1 unit for the Rangers, the 160 you lost on game 1 of the Blues, and any amount if the Rangers are in the middle of a chase.

State of the System (Before Thread Creation)

Unit Wins: 283
Pending: 4

State of the System (Since Thread Opening)

Unit Wins: 10
Pending Teams, 1L: 4
Pending Teams, 2L: 0
Pending Teams, 3L: 0
Pending Teams, 4L: 0
System Loss, 5L: 0

What I'm looking for...

a. People to look at the system, see what everyone here thinks
b. See if individuals are looking to maybe enhance the Google Document that I have - make it better

I'm looking to almost use this community to put together a "team" of sorts to answer some important questions if there is any interest in doing so.

Let me know what you guys think. Here's the link: http://tinyurl.com/k5hfa5s

[kcava]

No interest?

[amarius87]

i dont undersatnd this?
can you explain with an example please?

[amarius87]

like what do you mean by each team?

[kcava]

For example, tonight's card looks like this if anyone wants to jump on...

Dallas/Boston Under 6, -240
NY Islanders/Washington Under 6.5, -150
Ottawa/Columbus Under 6.5, -160
St. Louis/Montreal Under 6, -245...

...so on and so forth throughout the entire card.

You bet to win 1 unit (or .5 unit) per team, whatever you want to do.

So for the Ottawa / Columbus game you would bet $160 to win $100. If the game goes 7+ you split $80 between the two teams and chase the under 6.0 or 6.5 on the next game.

Make sense?

[amarius87]

so you only take one game? or all of them?

[kcava]

Every game, bet the under. It's just my idea of a heavily flawed system that can be taken advantage of for big unit profits - which I think I showed by including the Google Document. The juice on these games giving an extra goal should be much higher than the additional juice they're getting. The win percentage is about 70% outright, which I think gives some credibility to the system. I think the one major advantage to the system is that it plays every game, not leaving a lot of units out there on any given card.

Surprised the thread hasn't gotten more love. Maybe I'll update post 1 with the nightly recap every night in an attempt to continue to gain some credibility.

[kcava]

Great night for the system so far (now +342 for the year)

6-1-1 with 1 game in progress and 2 to play

[Crunchin]

So in your example in your first post where the 1st bet lost for St Louis. Let's say they play the Rangers the next game and the line is set at 5.5, do you just skip that game and wait until they have a game with a 6+ line?

[kcava]

No. Every team is given a line of 6 or 6.5 for every game (at least on 5dimes, teams are given lines for 4.5/5.0 through 6.0/6.5 with varying juice levels). So you just take the highest line and bet under.

Last night the highest line given for the Rangers was 6.0 at -220. So that was a push.

Last nights final was 9-1-1 (18 unit wins)

[Crunchin]

Oh okay, sorry I didn't know there was additional lines. I found them online and will be joining this system.

So for today I am seeing:

Buffalo @ Ducks- Under 6.5 -230
Jersey @ Toronto - Under 6 -230
Nashville @ Jets - Under 6 -180
Calgary @ Colorado - Under 6.5 -163

Are these far off from what you're seeing on 5dimes?

[kcava]

That is correct. Good luck!

2013/2014 Season Progress: +316 Units*
Average Win Percentage: 67%
Average Losing Percentage: 32%
Average Push Percentage : 1%

[Funkasaurus]

This is almost the same as my system. I like it, but too juicy for me. Good luck sir.

[kcava]

Thanks! It's a little juicy. I would recommend it for individuals with a small unit size. Following yours as well - looks great!

[tommpae]

Hey kcava!
What unit size do you recommend for a 25k bankroll?:-)

[Joe05ca]

How much per play u say I play for a $1000 bankroll??

[HockeyRocks]

Cashed in on Tor-NJ, Col-Cal and Nash-Wpg....3-0.....Got busy and never did get down on Anaheim. Would have lost that one.....

[kcava]

Glad the system is getting some love.

$1,000 Bankroll: Maybe a $3 unit?
$25,000 Bankroll: I'm always super conservative so I think I'd cap myself at $10. Can probably support a much higher one though. $20?

PS) If anyone things they can make the spreadsheet better feel free to let me know and I'll give you access to edit it.

[Joe05ca]

Thanks kc. I like the system i played all all four games but if one loses u pretty much lose all the winning
But cool system im gonna play and see if could come up with something for u

[Joe05ca]

One more question for u.. ur plays all games for the same amount of $ correct?? Or u have such things like strong plays so u double up on ur wagering ??

[kcava]

One more question for u.. ur plays all games for the same amount of $ correct?? Or u have such things like strong plays so u double up on ur wagering ??

I have deviated at some points but my records here reflect playing all games for the same unit number.

[Drek-]

This is interesting, is this your first year playing this? Did you backtested from previous years ?

[kcava]

This is interesting, is this your first year playing this? Did you backtested from previous years ?

Yes and No. I have this idea that so many "systems" miss out on so many chase opportunities because they're so strict on when they start the chase. I have the idea that a small enough unit size (every chase I start is .001% of my bankroll) and play a little higher juice than I can take advantage of all games played instead of a select few.

[HockeyRocks]

Went under on all games today including a win in the Flyers game.
Otta u 6.5
Bos u 6
Det u 6.5
Car u 6
Col u 6.5
St L u 6.5
Phoe u 6.5
LA u 6.

Went 3-0 yesterday...

[Joe05ca]

Wats ur dollar amount on each game bro??

[Joe05ca]

Im tailin u for $40 win per game
GL man

[Joe05ca]

Showing Wagers 1 - 25 of 25
Ticket Accepted Date Risk To Win Status Wager
207971783-1 11/9/13 4:29pm $92.00 $40.00 Pending 11/9/13 7:05pm NHL Hockey 55 Toronto Maple Leafs/Boston Bruins Under 6 -230*
207971783-2 11/9/13 4:29pm $84.00 $40.00 Pending 11/9/13 7:05pm NHL Hockey 57 Tampa Bay Lightning/Detroit Red Wings Under 6½ -210*
207971783-3 11/9/13 4:29pm $114.00 $40.00 Pending 11/9/13 7:05pm NHL Hockey 59 Minnesota Wild/Carolina Hurricanes Under 6 -285*
207971783-4 11/9/13 4:29pm $64.00 $40.00 Pending 11/9/13 7:05pm NHL Hockey 61 New York Islanders/Columbus Blue Jackets Under 6½ -160*
207971783-5 11/9/13 4:29pm $88.00 $40.00 Pending 11/9/13 8:05pm NHL Hockey 63 Pittsburgh Penguins/St. Louis Blues Under 6½ -220*
207971783-6 11/9/13 4:29pm $80.00 $40.00 Pending 11/9/13 8:05pm NHL Hockey 65 Chicago Blackhawks/Dallas Stars Under 6½ -200*
207971783-7 11/9/13 4:29pm $68.00 $40.00 Pending 11/9/13 8:05pm NHL Hockey 67 Washington Capitals/Phoenix Coyotes Under 6½ -170*
207971783-8 11/9/13 4:29pm $94.00 $40.00 Pending 11/9/13 10:05pm NHL Hockey 69 Vancouver Canucks/Los Angeles Kings Under 6 -235*
207929376-1 11/9/13 3:25pm $40.00 $242.81 Pending 5 Team Parlay
Pending 11/9/13 7:05pm NHL Hockey 57 Tampa Bay Lightning/Detroit Red Wings Under 6½ -210*
Pending 11/9/13 7:05pm NHL Hockey 59 Minnesota Wild/Carolina Hurricanes Under 6 -285*
Pending 11/9/13 7:05pm NHL Hockey 61 New York Islanders/Columbus Blue Jackets Under 6½ -160*
Pending 11/9/13 8:05pm NHL Hockey 63 Pittsburgh Penguins/St. Louis Blues Under 6½ -220*
Pending 11/9/13 8:05pm NHL Hockey 65 Chicago Blackhawks/Dallas Stars Under 6½ -200*

[Joe05ca]

Any suggestion for parlaying this system man??

[Joe05ca]

Yesterday I went
3-1 ($20.00)

[cooler54]

Any suggestion for parlaying this system man??

I was thinking the same thing, especially to take away the juice. Maybe combining it with a no overtime bet and chasing it for 3 or 4 games or whatever you're comfortable with

I did 2 of them tonight. Gonna start small and see what happens for shits and giggles.

208027500-1	11/9/13 6:53pm	$10.00	$9.35	Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	11/9/13 8:05pm NHL Hockey 64 PIT/STL no overtime -345* vs PIT/STL goes to overtime
				Pending	11/9/13 8:05pm NHL Hockey 65 Chicago Blackhawks/Dallas Stars Under 6½ -200*
208026337-1	11/9/13 6:52pm	$10.00	$10.83	Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	11/9/13 7:05pm NHL Hockey 56 TOR/BOS no overtime -355* vs TOR/BOS goes to overtime
				Pending	11/9/13 7:05pm NHL Hockey 61 New York Islanders/Columbus Blue Jackets Under 6½ -160*

[Joe05ca]

Thas a good idea very smart man
I lost thr parlay already lets see how many of those other games im gonna hit
I need them

[kcava]

I have not thought about parlaying although every now and again for fun I parlay under 6.5 for all games (usually get about $1 to win $115 if it's 11-12 games).

I have thought about removing annoying teams from the system. For example, the NY Islanders / Ottawa Senators are both headaches.

That said, I consider tonight a night that slipped into "below average". 6-3 at the moment with either a push or loss for the final game. I encourage everyone with $40 units to have a mighty high bankroll. My unit size is $2, very small. That said, 334 unit wins for the year so I'm pretty happy to this point.

Again, glad this is getting some play. Would love to see everyone who adopts parlay systems to let the individuals in the thread know how they're working!

[cooler54]

Okay im not by any means saying this is bulletproof, nor have i done extensive backtesting on this BUT....here is what im thinking as far as possibly having a parlay system where youd combine the alternative under 6/6.5 total, along with betting a game to not go into overtime....

As Kcava has shown so far in this thread, if you look at nhl daily scores you will notice that a very high majority of the games indeed have less then 6-7 goals scored....this is on a night in and night out basis. So if your were offered even money for each game, u would obviously come out way ahead pretty much every day if you were to bet the under 6./6.5 for every game. Unfortunately its not that easy since we're looking at pretty much an average of -200 in juice just to bet the under 6/6.5, so in order for us to get even money we have to parlay it with something else in order to get close to even money. This is where im thinking the "no overtime" bet would come in handy....these are usually in the -300 to -350 range and combined with our average -200 under 6/6.5 bet in a parlay, it would give us an even money payout....not to mention, if im not mistaken, i think at least 70-75 % of nhl games dont go into overtime, or somewhere near that, i dont know the exact statistic. (Anyone know the exact %?)

So anyways, basically every day u would take the alternative under 6/6.5 line for every nhl game and parlay it with ONE game you believe has very little chance to go to overtime. (Obviously im not talking about 1 giant parlay but a 2 team parlay for each game....one half of the parlay on the under 6/6.5 and one half on whatever game you picked to not go to overtime) So the big key in all this is you NEED your "no overtime" pick to come through in order for your days worth of parlays to hit and youd be able to take advantage of the high winning percentage that playing the under 6/6.5 yields on a pretty much daily basis.

Now as far as making it a chase system, if u have a bad night and lose your parlays for the day because the game you picked to not go into ot actually does...then you can chase your losses and double the next days parlays to however much you are comfortable risking...maybe even labby...its up to you. As long as you are making good "no overtime" picks i would imagine you will have ALOT of winning days.

Again, just thinking outside the box and throwing it out there!

EDIT: Another thing u can do for some insurance in case your "no overtime" bet loses is hedge it with 1 straight bet that that very game DOES go into overtime....that bet alone will give u really good +odds if it wins, which would cut out a chunk of your losses on a bad day while not eating much of your profit on your winning days.

[kcava]

For example,

NYI/MON Under 6.5 is -200 tonight. Bet $200 to win $100 (for $50 units per team)
If parlayed with FLA/NYR NO OT the bet changes to $112 to win $100 (for $50 units per team)

Not a bad idea, although the idea of throwing all your money into one game is the part that would scare me, even with betting on the other side. I hope you keep us in the loop on how it goes! Let us know what you're doing here.

[witteveentommy]

What book are you using for that parlay? Don't think I can do it on pinnacle and wouldn't mind trying it our for a few nights.