[mcbain]

I posted about this possible NHL system in the NBA thread where we have been following the Morrison NBA system and I suggested it might work for hockey.

Good and bad news so far after going through this season's data in the NHL, looking for a possible any 3-game road trip A-B-C series betting system.

This season so far if one was to bet every visiting team heading out on a 3 game road trip (and split 6-game trip into two bets) on a straight moneyline bet record would be:

76 A wins
43 B wins
17 C wins

for 136 total wins which sounds nice.

However, you would encounter, if you bet moneyline with no filters:

27 losses

Your record is 136-27 and with series betting you are down for the season.

So with those numbers we have no system.

HOWEVER, if we bet the +1.5 line on all our road teams (when available and looking at the games only one team would have been favored on the road, DET), we would see

22 of those losses turn to wins
as there was at least one game in the series where our team lost by 1 goal.

Further, if we eliminated playing teams in the second 3 of a 6-game roadie, we could eiminate another

3 losses (and one of those was DET)

So we are down to 2 outright losses

The last filter that we could apply would be to elminate betting on the teams with the 5 worst road records (or 4 or 3, something like that).

That would eliminate another loss as OTT would not have been a play.

That would leave us with ONE outright loss, Carolina series starting on Jan. 8 of this year.

So applying a +1.5 betting strategy, skip the second 3 games of the long trips, don't bet on the absolute worst road teams, you could come up with a record of

145-1

(the original 136 wins plus the 22 gained by betting +1.5, take off 13 wins by skipping second set of 3 on 6-game trips and taking off the losses that simply would not have been bet.)

Is that clear to everyone? I'm sure not.

Anyway, that's all I've got. If this would work for previous seasons I am not sure yet but I invite anyone to take a look.

[Shortstop]

s p a m !!!

[mcbain]

Pretty sure SPAM (!!) looks sell something.

I am trying to develop a profitable NHL system with forum colleagues, for free.

Thanks for that great input however.

[dwaechte]

Definitely not spam. I don't agree with the method, but its a genuine post.

[reno cool]

You can always find filters that make something a winner. You forgot the most important thing: testing your filters against a new season.

[pico]

You can always find filters that make something a winner. You forgot the most important thing: testing your filters against a new season.

called data mining.

[ijustwant2bpaid]

sounds like a good system but as reno said, u have any results vs. previous seasons? Keep up the good work though!

[G's pks]

not buying it and here is proof! You say 22 less losses by taking the +1.5.... The problem here is I am sure some, at least 50% of those losses were road favs,,,so they would not be +1.5!

[LT Profits]

not buying it and here is proof! You say 22 less losses by taking the +1.5.... The problem here is I am sure some, at least 50% of those losses were road favs,,,so they would not be +1.5!

You can get +1.5 on any game at books that have alternate lines. There are plenty of those books.

That said, I would never follow any system that tells you to raise your bet size simply because you lost the previous play in the series. If this method is so successful, just use Kelly on every play and forget the chasing nonsense.

[Cassidy]

First, you would have to estimate the price on units that it would cost each series loss, I think by what I saw at another post it would be around 24u.!! the cost for the +1.5 on books use to be an add of -190 average

I think it may be too close the margin of losses that could turn a profitable season on to a catastrophic one. 6 losses and your down.

[mcbain]

I would like to think I am not data mining; actually just seeing if a form of the successfull JM NBA system could be applied to hockey.

Telling me to bet by Kelly is irrelevant. I know many hate a series bet but that is the way it has to be for this system. Using one this season in the NBA we are 75-1...

Anyway, the other point made and a good one is that some of these teams may not have been dogs on the road and you couldn't have got the +1.5 at many books.

I looked at the losses, and since they were by these teams: ATL, FLA, PHI (at SJ), PIT (at SJ), STL, PHX, NYI, TB, NSH and COL it was pretty easy to tell these teams would not have been favored on the road 3 games in a row! Only PHI or PIT could have even been considered a possible fave on road and no doubt would never be favored when playing at SJ and they both lost by 1 goal there.

Another member has analyzed last season and found that using only teams with a winning road record would result in a 93-2 record (+46 units).

[Axis]

^^
Yea but in the beginning of a season, you don't know who is going to have a winning road record...

Good thoughts, but I'd have to go back more than one season to see if this still worked.

[DukeJohn]

Furthermore, you would have had to keep track as the season progressed to say what the worst road teams at the time. You just can't look at the current worst road teams... You should just back test it over the last few years... you already have the filters...

[G's pks]

You can get +1.5 on any game at books that have alternate lines. There are plenty of those books.

That said, I would never follow any system that tells you to raise your bet size simply because you lost the previous play in the series. If this method is so successful, just use Kelly on every play and forget the chasing nonsense.

Like he would be lucky enough to know exactly when to do this!

[reno cool]

You can get +1.5 on any game at books that have alternate lines. There are plenty of those books.

That said, I would never follow any system that tells you to raise your bet size simply because you lost the previous play in the series. If this method is so successful, just use Kelly on every play and forget the chasing nonsense.

I sometimes use a raise after a lost bet on a particular team system. But this has more to do with perceived additional value on the losing team next time out.

[mcbain]

This NHL system I detailed in the first post of this thread is 3-0 on three A bets for far since we started testing it out.

WSH and EDM on the 19th won
DET on the 20th won

VAN is an A bet on 21st.

[rjohnny]

there is a website that sells an nhl system. The site looks very similar to the JM site. So i'm sure it's the same people. I know devildog, on this site, knows what the system is because he references the record. I'm sure it's pretty much the JM basketball and baseball system morphed together.

[egr99]

9 losses for 07/08 with 1- First 3 games only of road trip, 2- +1.5 when team is dog. Did not do the road record filter, will be checking that soon. TAM was 3 losses in itself.

egr99

[floridagolfer]

For the 08-09 season, if you bet against every road team until it lost on a road trip of three games or more, the total series record was 160-9. I've got the Excel sheet.

[egr99]

For the 08-09 season, if you bet against every road team until it lost on a road trip of three games or more, the total series record was 160-9. I've got the Excel sheet.

Quick question... What do you use to backtest? Do you have a way to import all the results in excel? Im doing everything manually and its a bit of a pain.

egr99

[floridagolfer]

Quick question... What do you use to backtest? Do you have a way to import all the results in excel? Im doing everything manually and its a bit of a pain.

egr99

I created my own Excel sheet for last season; it's updated daily and it takes two minutes a day.

I've also gone through every schedule for the 09-10 season and that sheet is ready to go. If memory serves me right, there are 171 series, excluding one, I think, that was split around the break for the Olympics.

[G's pks]

For the 08-09 season, if you bet against every road team until it lost on a road trip of three games or more, the total series record was 160-9. I've got the Excel sheet.

Ok the original post was betting road teams...your post says bet against the road team...please explain. Also is this ML or what?

[egr99]

cool, planning on doing the same this year but going through past seasons right now and its very tedious... gluck

egr99

[egr99]

re-creating every teams record home/away game by game its taking me forever... Hopefully done by start of season! LOl


egr99

[G's pks]

Also if there were 9 series losses times three that would be 27 game losses...if each loss was a -200 team...that would be equivilent to say 54 losses?

[floridagolfer]

Ok the original post was betting road teams...your post says bet against the road team...please explain. Also is this ML or what?

You are correct. Sorry about that.

I play this to go against visiting teams on road trips of three games or more. It was 160-9 last year and very close to that the year before.

I have no knowledge of any format that backs the visiting teams.

For those trying to go through schedules to find road trips, perhaps we're talking about two different things. I went through every team's season schedule and the entire compilation took two or three hours.

[G's pks]

I believe in systems and use a very successful one for baseball that involves some capping skills also... Sounds very interesting... GL with it... If you are taking the home team .... as you stated I am assuming you are betting ML not giving a puck and a half.... Just the problem being...some of the ML favs/home are heavy chalk. If there is a successful road system as originally started here... I am guessing that would pay better... Do you know what you would be up say betting $100 a game?

[floridagolfer]

I believe in systems and use a very successful one for baseball that involves some capping skills also... Sounds very interesting... GL with it... If you are taking the home team .... as you stated I am assuming you are betting ML not giving a puck and a half.... Just the problem being...some of the ML favs/home are heavy chalk. If there is a successful road system as originally started here... I am guessing that would pay better... Do you know what you would be up say betting $100 a game?

Yes, all the plays are ML.

To play for a profit of $100 a series, my guess is that you would need a bankroll of a couple of thousand because I can assure you there are going to be god-awful teams that go out and win the first two games of a road trip against home favorites that are -300 or more. That will shake your confidence in a hurry.

[G's pks]

Yes, all the plays are ML.

To play for a profit of $100 a series, my guess is that you would need a bankroll of a couple of thousand because I can assure you there are going to be god-awful teams that go out and win the first two games of a road trip against home favorites that are -300 or more. That will shake your confidence in a hurry.

Great info just make sure those of you reading this thread...the first person started out talking about playing road teams...the second home teams...so you do not bet backwards and get wiped out! G

[ketut]

Great, thanks for all your work,Ive been betting hockey for a couple of years now, using the chase system for away teams and also betting on home teams with a series of 3 or 4 games. Can you post your excel sheet that you have on the away games for 2009 and 2010. I also use different filters that seem to work. Thanks

[brooks85]

I started backtesting this system when i got the first nba system last year. I played it last year but not as a chase, just B and Cs and i came out positive. I got 11 teams down backtracked to 1995 checking for all 3 game road trips. I plan on finishing the backtest on the other teams before the season starts. Ive been recording the loses to try and find the filters. One I noticed is dont bet the first or last series of a season. Juice in this system would be crazy.


For the following teams CHI,CBJ,DET,NAS,STL,NJ,NYI,NYR,PHI,PIT,B OS since 95 3 games roadtrip results playing +1.5 spread, no filters.

08- 65 wins 0 loss
07- 67 wins 3 loss NYI,NAS,STL
06- 54 wins 5 loss NYIx2,DET,STL,BOS
05- 55 wins 1 loss STL
03- 60 wins 1 loss PIT
02- 59 wins 4 loss PIT,CHI,CBJ,BOS
01- 64 wins 0 loss
00- 57 wins 2 loss CBJ,NAS
99- 57 wins 0 loss
98- 61 wins 1 loss BOS
97- 57 wins 1 loss (been awhile & I have a loss checked but didnt record team)
96- 58 wins 1 loss PIT
95- 40 wins 2 loss NYI BOS

only 11 teams were backtested

[floridagolfer]

Great, thanks for all your work,Ive been betting hockey for a couple of years now, using the chase system for away teams and also betting on home teams with a series of 3 or 4 games. Can you post your excel sheet that you have on the away games for 2009 and 2010. I also use different filters that seem to work. Thanks

Here's the schedule for 2009-10. On one page you'll see all the road trips of three games or more; on another page you'll see all the homestands of three games or more. I've heard that some players like to play both angles, though playing the homestands is something I've never done.

Everything should be self-explanatory. I THINK I've managed to include this attachment properly.

[egr99]

Wonder how long untill JM picks up on this thread and advertise NHL v2.0

Good work guys... Im on to something too, don't mind sharing but won't be posting for the above reason. PMs are welcome...

Currently got:
08/09: 58-1
07/08: 66-1

Finishing up 3-4 more seasons but looks around the same lines.

egr99

[egr99]

One I noticed is dont bet the first or last series of a season. Juice in this system would be crazy.

Yup, very good observation, both the losses i encountered qualified through my filters and both were in the month of october in each season.

egr99

[egr99]

Also, so people don't think I am datamining... I am doing pure and filtered numbers.

pure... filtered
08/09: 161-3 ... 58-1
07/08: 167-9 ... 66-1

Giving up a ton of wins for less risk/losses.

I dont think im datamining because I am showing similar results for several years of backtesting

egr99