Originally Posted by
mcbain
I posted about this possible NHL system in the NBA thread where we have been following the Morrison NBA system and I suggested it might work for hockey.
Good and bad news so far after going through this season's data in the NHL, looking for a possible any 3-game road trip A-B-C series betting system.
This season so far if one was to bet every visiting team heading out on a 3 game road trip (and split 6-game trip into two bets) on a straight moneyline bet record would be:
76 A wins
43 B wins
17 C wins
for 136 total wins which sounds nice.
However, you would encounter, if you bet moneyline with no filters:
27 losses
Your record is 136-27 and with series betting you are down for the season.
So with those numbers we have no system.
HOWEVER, if we bet the +1.5 line on all our road teams (when available and looking at the games only one team would have been favored on the road, DET), we would see
22 of those losses turn to wins
as there was at least one game in the series where our team lost by 1 goal.
Further, if we eliminated playing teams in the second 3 of a 6-game roadie, we could eiminate another
3 losses (and one of those was DET)
So we are down to 2 outright losses
The last filter that we could apply would be to elminate betting on the teams with the 5 worst road records (or 4 or 3, something like that).
That would eliminate another loss as OTT would not have been a play.
That would leave us with ONE outright loss, Carolina series starting on Jan. 8 of this year.
So applying a +1.5 betting strategy, skip the second 3 games of the long trips, don't bet on the absolute worst road teams, you could come up with a record of
145-1
(the original 136 wins plus the 22 gained by betting +1.5, take off 13 wins by skipping second set of 3 on 6-game trips and taking off the losses that simply would not have been bet.)
Is that clear to everyone? I'm sure not.
Anyway, that's all I've got. If this would work for previous seasons I am not sure yet but I invite anyone to take a look.