[Ditaln1]

Repski, That stat was Villanova's .

[repski]

At first glance, I couldn't see why WV was favored. However, after an in-depth look, WV matches up very well with Nova. If the books think an unranked WV team at home is 2 baskets better than the 13th ranked Wildcats, then there is obviously something the everyday gambler is missing. Like CK said, Villanova is just too easy of a pick, and I agree. GL no matter which way you go. Should be a good game to watch.

same thing happened last night I couldn't understand the line in the ND/Louisville game.......ND blew them out....not much to bet on tonight other than this and pucks...

[repski]

Repski, That stat was Villanova's .

understood...thx

[handimann]

what do you guys think about the prop bet durant -4.5 pts over mayo at the rookie/soph game tonight?

[MasterGollum]

Here's a good soccer pick to start your Friday off right. Take care!


Soccer - Netherlands Eredivisie - Feb. 13th - 1:45pm CST

4602 FC Utrecht ML +140

Whoever picked this game with me, should have a huge smile on their face.

4602 FC Utrecht ML +140 WON

[jaymac82980]

Ok, so not to beat a dead horse - or a dying one, or whatever. But just like everyone else, when theres a car crash on the highway I slow down to check it out. It's sick I know, but I still slow down to look.

Has anyone noticed that Machine choice has now opened a new thread, where he explains why he is picking West Virginia, and what he thinks the final score will be. Ugh. I agree with people saying that Villy is too easy of a pick, but man, when Debbie downer sits at the table - rain cloud and all - and says she likes West Virgina, I may have to go with Villy (the too obvious pick, that just got better looking to me).

Plus, i REALLY do like Vilanova for this game.

[jaymac82980]

has vilanova's last 5 games - and all their conference games (same conference as WV) been against cupcakes? Even if WV has had a couple harder games than Vil, I still dont see it. I'll take the points. hey, maybe WV will win, but I doubt it. Small play taking those glorious 4.5 points

[nonsense48]

i'm just gonna stick with hockey these next few days and learn as much as i can. unless of course something special in cbb jumps out at me and begs for a play, which often happens being the degenerate that i am

[nonsense48]

i must say i had a lot of fun in the first round of the tourney that sam started and i hope the second round is just as much fun. the tourney does bring out the best in people as far as getting everyone to do the best they can with the capping skills they have and hopefully teaches them something along the way. good luck to everyone in round 2.

[jaymac82980]

nonsense, if youre a degenerate, then what does that make me? I just bet some lady in the supermarket what color roses one of the customers would buy. Of course the reds were -150, whites were -110, and the assortment of colors was +220.

[maddogmadden86]

hahaha jaymac that just makes you a hustler

[cocknocker]

jaymac,

A jump over a key number is a pretty significant. At first West Virginia was a 3.5 point favorite or two baskets better. Now they are 4.5 which is very significant because the line jumped over a key number, and now West Virginia is basically a 6 point favorite

[showtime2000]

Whoever picked this game with me, should have a huge smile on their face.

4602 FC Utrecht ML +140 WON

Nice call MasterGollum!

[cheesehead004]

Just got back from the casino. There were a ton of loud hooligans screaming about how Nova was gonna dominate today, and I was tempted into thinking of dumping a boatload on Villanova ML, but I said forget it they suck on the road. So anyways, I only went with these two plays:

DET/CBJ Over 5.5 - 3.3 to win 3
VAN/DAL Over 5.5 - 2.2 to win 2

Best of luck everyone.

[jaymac82980]

Maddog, I became a hustler when that old hag scammed me - who would have guessed the guy would go for the assortment? Lucky for me she was old and slow...I happen to have had on my brand new "PF Flyers". She didnt stand a chance.

CK, that 4.5 line really being 6 is one of the reasons I like Villanova even more now. (That and the fact that machine further stepped out of character and put out a write up on it.)

I just dont see WV covering 6 points. It makes no sense to me. Is it a trap? Is it not a trap? I'm tired of asking myslef, the RLM doesn't scare me for this game.

[jaymac82980]

Cheez, Vilanova sucks on the road??? They are 7-3 SU. Tonight they are getting points!!! 7-3 on the road looks pretty good to me. WV is 9-2 SU at home, but only 4-4 ATS. ewww.


edit: vil is also 6-4 ATS on the road, which means two losses they obviously didn't cover, but the other two that they didnt cover the spread in were wins, and do you think those wins they were getting +4.5 points???

[TheLemonDropKid]

I think I'm gonna go this route for tonight:

Montreal -120
Boston +110
Det/Colum over 5.5
Cornell -14.5
Butler -12.5
Rider -10

Any thoughts????

Do any of these college games look better as 1st H bets than complete games???

[cheesehead004]

Well they dont "suck" per se, but they certainly arent the same hot team they have been lately when they are on the road. At home they are elite. I mean on the road they have lost SU their only 2 big games against Marq and UConn. They even needed OT to beat Seton Hall. I dunno, I'm glad I just stayed away from that game.

[Killer Chihuahua]

CK or anyone?
quick question about the relation between the point spread and money line....
Say I have a line of -4.5 and the money line on that game is set at -260.
obviously the spread and the ml do not match up. Lets also say that the percentage of bets are on the fav.
Now their is room for the spread to move to -4.5 or -5.......so my question is what is vegas wanting you to take? do they want you on that ml or do they want you to take the spread? thanks in advance.....Tha Killa thrilla Chihuahua'

[gameday10]

I posted my research earlier but I added a little bit more at the end after CK mentioned WV 54 against ppg at home.

Nova are clearly on a roll right now going 8-0 ATS last 8 games, 8-2 ats last 10, and 5-2 ATS away. Checked the kenpom ratings and nova is 6-2 against top 100 teams and 4-1 against the top 50 while wv is 3-4 against top 100 and 2-3 against top 50 ATS. Villanova beat pitt SU and ATS while WV lost to them twice SU and ATS. WV is only 4-6 ATS last 10 and 2-2 at home(2 wins being prov and st. johns). The last 10 games both have played 7 of the same teams while Villanova is 6-1 ATS against those 7 and WV is 3-5 against those(played pitt twice). Also, did more today and while WV defense is holding opponents to 54 ppg at home(per thespread), in conference play they are giving up 65.6 ppg and 62 ppg at home. And nova is scoring 80.8 ppg and 81.5 away. The reaon for the 54 ppg against at home for WV is teams like Elon, longwood, delaware st, cleveland st, miami(oh), and radford all were held to under 54 ppg at WV, and now look once they started conference play. It has increased by 8 points. The way villanova has played, I do not see how you go against them. For me it is nova or no play.

[cocknocker]

Pretty obvious Killer Chihuahua that Vegas wants jaymac's money,lol!

Villanova is the wrong call on this one, and with 78% of bettors on their side the line has gone from 3.5 to 5. That is a significant jump with reverse line movement. Obviously bettors are being steered away frm taking West Virginia's moneyline and being guided towards taking the moneyline for Villanova. We will find out in a couple of hours. But being a sharp myself, I jumped on West Virginia last night when i saw the fishy line. I am rolling with the fishy team and in this instance it is West Vriginia

[cocknocker]

Probably better to do the no play plan gameday10. All the research in the world won't help Villanova backers on this one. The linemaker made this line to spawn Villanova action obviously. Do you really think that the linemaker's intention by making the line bigger and bigger is to help out those 78% of bettors on Villanova's side? Come on... Gotta think outside the box.

[cocknocker]

I think I'm gonna go this route for tonight:

Montreal -120
Boston +110
Det/Colum over 5.5
Cornell -14.5
Butler -12.5
Rider -10

Any thoughts????

Do any of these college games look better as 1st H bets than complete games???

Butler 1st half
Harvard 1st half

[cocknocker]

I am adding a Bailey's research play and taking Harvard+8 1st half. The 1st half spread is 60% of the game spread so I'm taking it as further intensive research for bailey's point about the number 8 spread!


Harvard+8 1st half

I am updating the front page to reflect this play

[Killer Chihuahua]

[quote=cocknocker;1526831]Pretty obvious Killer Chihuahua that Vegas wants jaymac's money,lol!

Villanova is the wrong call on this one

Agree on both points, but that game has no relation to my question... just trying to understand the relation between the spread and ml in any circumstance
thanks for the response

[cocknocker]

A peek at the Winning Edge shows me that the average score at the half between these two teams is

Harvard 30.9 Cornell 33.3


That is good enough for me when combined with Bailey's Comet ( I like the sound of that)

[maddogmadden86]

CK i was thinking harvard first half too gonna play that with you homie

[TheLemonDropKid]

Butler 1st half
Harvard 1st half

Thanks for the feedback CK.......noted and adjusted.....and booked.

[nonsense48]

booked nhl:mont ml bos ml nyr ml det/cbus over 5.5 3 team nhl parlay:mont-1.5 bos+1.5 nyr+1.5 cbb:vil+4.5 nickle each & buck parlay GOOD LUCK EVERYONE

[woodyman]

I am adding a Bailey's research play and taking Harvard+8 1st half. The 1st half spread is 60% of the game spread so I'm taking it as further intensive research for bailey's point about the number 8 spread!


Harvard+8 1st half

I am updating the front page to reflect this play

going to play this smaller than the normal SP's i assume??

[djpremier36]

what do you guys think about the prop bet durant -4.5 pts over mayo at the rookie/soph game tonight?

I'm playing Thorton(+100) to score 3.5 more points than Beasley.

Beasley is on the loaded rookie squad...while Thorton will score at least 20 on the so-so soph's

[ram1502]

I wouldn't mess with any of the props on this game. You have no idea how many minutes each player is gonna play. Maybe just a fun play, but nothing serious IMO

[jaymac82980]

vegas wants my money? I want vegas' money! we'll know who wins by 11.

[ram1502]

Wow, looks like some large sums of "smart money" on the Jackets and Avalanche tonight. With 22% and 14% on them respectively, their ML's have gone up. HMM

[ANDYW15]

We have our first goal of the NHL thread invasion stint - 1-0 CBJ