[str]

hey str


parx R11 (5:25)

#8 easy day (7-2)


thought you'd find this interesting as lots going on..know you're busy so as usual it's a write-up if you can't




what i see..

2nd off layoff and dropping..but the sale price plus winner's share is about equal to what he was claimed for

was claimed 4 straight times 3-6 starts back

showing some speed first off vs better might be a good primer


has lots of recent back numbers that would get it done here


going to a 7lb bug who's having a good meet and the trainer is also


track tends to favor outside posts although they do clump all sprint distances together


lightly raced 5yo and not gelded like most of these cheap
claimers are..might mean nothing but figure I'd throw it out there




.

What I see:

Could have gotten Pennington back as he rides an inferior horse. Most probably Pennington did not like the way he was feeling and got him out of the race fairly early last out. Now the big drop and a 7 pound bug. What that probably represents is the trainer needs someone to ride him that will let him run. A bug will do that. Probably sore, probably kid gloved to get him sound enough for today, no works for the last 15 days backs that up. Fronts on 5 races back and stayed on from trainer to trainer.
This happens plenty often with old hard knocking horses. If I watched the replay of the last race of this horse warm up last time and this time ( things I did every day ) I would have the entire book on this horse.
But without those things, I speculate.
Can he win? Sure. He can win off. Or, run bad and the trainer hopes he gets claimed. I have no way of knowing having not seen the things I mentioned.
So what does a bettor do? If you can't form a solid opinion from seeing previous races, etc. you have to play assuming he can run well. That probably makes him a winner.( Did not look at the others but he must be tons the best). But I would not invest much as this horse has a hole in him most likely and he can win easily or run last.
Worth a play at the right price but not a big play. Save that for horses you can trust are in good shape.

Hope that makes sense.

Going to answer the Messier question tomorrow. Should have some time early. He is bred to run in the Belmont? I think that's what you said. Very interesting if so. I'll explain tomorrow.

[JBEX]

What I see:

Could have gotten Pennington back as he rides an inferior horse. Most probably Pennington did not like the way he was feeling and got him out of the race fairly early last out. Now the big drop and a 7 pound bug. What that probably represents is the trainer needs someone to ride him that will let him run. A bug will do that. Probably sore, probably kid gloved to get him sound enough for today, no works for the last 15 days backs that up. Fronts on 5 races back and stayed on from trainer to trainer.
This happens plenty often with old hard knocking horses. If I watched the replay of the last race of this horse warm up last time and this time ( things I did every day ) I would have the entire book on this horse.
But without those things, I speculate.
Can he win? Sure. He can win off. Or, run bad and the trainer hopes he gets claimed. I have no way of knowing having not seen the things I mentioned.
So what does a bettor do? If you can't form a solid opinion from seeing previous races, etc. you have to play assuming he can run well. That probably makes him a winner.( Did not look at the others but he must be tons the best). But I would not invest much as this horse has a hole in him most likely and he can win easily or run last.
Worth a play at the right price but not a big play. Save that for horses you can trust are in good shape.

Hope that makes sense.

Going to answer the Messier question tomorrow. Should have some time early. He is bred to run in the Belmont? I think that's what you said. Very interesting if so. I'll explain tomorrow.

the most important I take away from what you said is that in this situation there is a lot of speculation (more than avg) about the condition of this horse. it's something that if you were putting the time in like you did when you were training you'd have more concrete answers to what shape he's in..i am just luke warm on him and would've like to see him be competitive a little further to r into the race last out..comment was dueled between so that was not favorable for him either last out.. however with the cutback (which I didn't mention earlier and has to be important) , drop and 7lbs off maybe he will have enough


look forward to your response on the other.. thanks again str

[str]

the most important I take away from what you said is that in this situation there is a lot of speculation (more than avg) about the condition of this horse. it's something that if you were putting the time in like you did when you were training you'd have more concrete answers to what shape he's in..i am just luke warm on him and would've like to see him be competitive a little further to r into the race last out..comment was dueled between so that was not favorable for him either last out.. however with the cutback (which I didn't mention earlier and has to be important) , drop and 7lbs off maybe he will have enough


look forward to your response on the other.. thanks again str

Yep. I am wondering if when he switched leads to go into the turn, he felt rough. That along with the rider probably having to ride hard to stay in the spot and therefore the rider just says, nope no today, and takes him out of there. When they switch leads it can feel rocky to a jock if it's going to feel that way. Again, all speculation and maybe wild at that. But... that is exactly how it works when that speculation is correct.
Impossible for me to know from here.

Yeah, lets talk Belmont tomorrow.

[JBEX]

btw I guess the "what I see" isn't necessary.. sometimes i feel I'm asking for your opinion then blabbing away about why I like him so it's kind of acknowledging that..i feel that's what makes this a little interesting vs. me just asking you what you think about the horse..i will assume your OK with me asking
and giving my view and I will skip the intro lol next time

[JBEX]

yes messier is bred well for the belmont.. he's by a belmont winner and without going into the female family specifics (I haven't) the dam sire is a very stout influence also

[JBEX]

this explains the connection to mark messier

https://buffalonews.com/sports/post-...74511eaff.html

[JBEX]

yes messier is bred well for the belmont.. he's by a belmont winner and without going into the female family specifics (I haven't) the dam sire is a very stout influence also

dam was a multiple listed stakes winner.

2nd dam was unraced but by a.p. indy (belmont winner) and of course his sire seattle slew did also
.. out of a seeking the gold (2nd breeders cup classic and travers) mare which is more stoutness .. seeking the gold was an elite sire and dam sire besides

[str]

btw I guess the "what I see" isn't necessary.. sometimes i feel I'm asking for your opinion then blabbing away about why I like him so it's kind of acknowledging that..i feel that's what makes this a little interesting vs. me just asking you what you think about the horse..i will assume your OK with me asking
and giving my view and I will skip the intro lol next time

I think your format intro is fine. Perfect actually. It allows the other readers to see and hopefully learn if they want to or need to, your angles. Then, they see mine.

The fact that your angle is from the perspective of a pure handicapper where mine is from a trainer that was a handicapper first, albeit a young one . Two totally different points of attack.

Yesterday was a prime example. The skeptical claiming trainer in me saw all the negatives with a horse dropping that was much better than the others in the race. You saw the reality of a horse simply much better than the rest. Anyone reading saw the two different views of the same horse.

I used to love hearing viewpoints from old riders, trainers, etc. It showed me their view. And, it made me see more.

Let's keep it up.

[str]

yes messier is bred well for the belmont.. he's by a belmont winner and without going into the female family specifics (I haven't) the dam sire is a very stout influence also

I just looked again at Messier's bloodlines. Lol. I would say he is certainly bred to get the Belmont distance. Probably more so than most when they line up.

[JBEX]

I think your format intro is fine. Perfect actually. It allows the other readers to see and hopefully learn if they want to or need to, your angles. Then, they see mine.

The fact that your angle is from the perspective of a pure handicapper where mine is from a trainer that was a handicapper first, albeit a young one . Two totally different points of attack.

Yesterday was a prime example. The skeptical claiming trainer in me saw all the negatives with a horse dropping that was much better than the others in the race. You saw the reality of a horse simply much better than the rest. Anyone reading saw the two different views of the same horse.

I used to love hearing viewpoints from old riders, trainers, etc. It showed me their view. And, it made me see more.

Let's keep it up.

yeah it's great to get your opinion which can mix in looking at it from a trainer and handicapping perspective .. I admittedly got a little bit of cold feet when I looked at it a 2nd time because he gave it up so dramatically in the last quarter mile in his previous outing ..you made some comments as to why that might not be as bad as it looks..was bet right from the start and thought the 7lb bug gave him a real professional ride ..have to watch out for him in the future


he was taken by scott lake..without looking that's a guy who's been at this quite a while..guessing he was around when you were active ?

[JBEX]

yeah it's great to get your opinion which can mix in looking at it from a trainer and handicapping perspective .. I admittedly got a little bit of cold feet when I looked at it a 2nd time because he gave it up so dramatically in the last quarter mile in his previous outing ..you made some comments as to why that might not be as bad as it looks..was bet right from the start and thought the 7lb bug gave him a real professional ride ..have to watch out for him in the future


he was taken by scott lake..without looking that's a guy who's been at this quite a while..guessing he was around when you were active ?

ehhh why not look it up..early 90's start but his big years were 2000's..still ok in the 10's and overall a very nice career

[str]

lengths behind (rounded off)

2f/4f/6f/MILE/9f/FINISH

[××] total all calls lengths behind

" - " means 1st
ex: -2 means 1st by 2 lengths

0 means < 1/2 length in front or < 1/2 length behind



rich strike

17/17/12/5/4/-1* [54]

* won by 3/4 length so I'm rounding up to 1 length..not going to do this (*) for the others but just showing example here


epicenter

6/5/3/0/-1/1 [14]

0= head in front

zandon

9/7/6/1/1/1 [25]


simplification

11/12/9/4/5/3 [44]


mo donegal


18/17/12/4/8/4 [63]

adding these 2 in because they were up close and the latter was my pick

crown pride

0/1/0/0/9/18 [28]

messier

2/2/0/0/5/19 [28]


hey str


you think (especially considering the fast pace) stuff like this has any value .. understand there's trips and biases but just as raw data ?

admittedly what started me thinking this way was i had messier who was involved in that early pace..at 9f he was still only 5 lengths from the lead before fading really bad..was thinking this could be useful conditioning for the preakness especially since it's a half furlong shorter

I'm guessing they won't run him in the preakness though and one of the reasons besides the obvious (back too soon) is his pedigree..sire won the belmont and dam sire is very stout influence .. do you think if they do decide to run the preakness it's a sign that in there opinion he's in perfectly good shape to do so..if there was any question about it they would probably hedge on the conservative side and skip it ?





.

I think trip handicapping especially for speed horses is a huge deal. Too many riders came back when I had a speed horse that caught a tough "in between trip" or crazy pace and said how the horse was apprehensive to continue on or respond due to a tough position. Put that horse solo next out or with a clean trip and the horse was night and day different.

Several years ago, Palace Malice ran off with Blinkers on in the Derby. He went 22 and change 45 and change 109:3 or something like that and ran himself out when they turned for home.
They went blks. off ( If I'm remembering it right) in the Belmont , he relaxed and won. Oxbow also got caught in a crazy speed Derby, got a much better run in the Belmont, and finished 2nd. My buddies I go to the track with crushed that race. We had the winner, exacta, triple and the super. Just crazy ! Thank you Belmont. And thank you speed duel, trip and relax.

Off last Saturdays burning early pace, I am very hopeful lightning can strike twice with the same type of pace set up in the Belmont. We have the Preakness to get through first but too me, the Belmont could offer a ton of opportunity. Your post above showing the speed and who ran best in a tough situation is right up my alley and a great tool for players to become aware of if they already are not.

Messier got caught up in the same type of thing with the pace and trip being really tough for him. He hung in better than most.
Now he gets 5 weeks . If, and we will just have to wait and see, the Belmont comes up with much less pace, my first thought would be that Messier , who ran better than the others in the Derby on the front group is going to be real tough. Have to wait for the setup though.


So here are my answers.

Q. you think (especially considering the fast pace) stuff like this has any value .. understand there's trips and biases but just as raw data ?

A. It has a TON of value IMO. I have used this angle seemingly forever to bet when I was focusing on that but also, to claim horses as well, back when I was focusing on that. I hardly ever focused on both at the same time. I was hard to worry about a bet when your spending thousands potentially on a horse. I could never do both. Claiming took all my time. That and training/running the ones I had.
But either way, I have found great success just waiting for opportunities to come up when races do things like what the Derby did.


Q. do you think if they do decide to run the preakness it's a sign that in there opinion he's in perfectly good shape to do so..if there was any question about it they would probably hedge on the conservative side and skip it ?

A. Yes. He would have to be in fine shape because I assume they want to try the Belmont for sure. You never know, but that's my guess.


We are going to have a lot to talk about with the Preakness and Belmont I'm pretty sure.

Thanks JBEX.

[str]

yeah it's great to get your opinion which can mix in looking at it from a trainer and handicapping perspective .. I admittedly got a little bit of cold feet when I looked at it a 2nd time because he gave it up so dramatically in the last quarter mile in his previous outing ..you made some comments as to why that might not be as bad as it looks..was bet right from the start and thought the 7lb bug gave him a real professional ride ..have to watch out for him in the future


he was taken by scott lake..without looking that's a guy who's been at this quite a while..guessing he was around when you were active ?

He was at Penn. National, then Md. and Phila. Park I think.. He was just starting to get a lot of horses when I left.

I never really knew him.

[JBEX]

I think trip handicapping especially for speed horses is a huge deal. Too many riders came back when I had a speed horse that caught a tough "in between trip" or crazy pace and said how the horse was apprehensive to continue on or respond due to a tough position. Put that horse solo next out or with a clean trip and the horse was night and day different.

Several years ago, Palace Malice ran off with Blinkers on in the Derby. He went 22 and change 45 and change 109:3 or something like that and ran himself out when they turned for home.
They went blks. off ( If I'm remembering it right) in the Belmont , he relaxed and won. Oxbow also got caught in a crazy speed Derby, got a much better run in the Belmont, and finished 2nd. My buddies I go to the track with crushed that race. We had the winner, exacta, triple and the super. Just crazy ! Thank you Belmont. And thank you speed duel, trip and relax.

Off last Saturdays burning early pace, I am very hopeful lightning can strike twice with the same type of pace set up in the Belmont. We have the Preakness to get through first but too me, the Belmont could offer a ton of opportunity. Your post above showing the speed and who ran best in a tough situation is right up my alley and a great tool for players to become aware of if they already are not.

Messier got caught up in the same type of thing with the pace and trip being really tough for him. He hung in better than most.
Now he gets 5 weeks . If, and we will just have to wait and see, the Belmont comes up with much less pace, my first thought would be that Messier , who ran better than the others in the Derby on the front group is going to be real tough. Have to wait for the setup though.


So here are my answers.

Q. you think (especially considering the fast pace) stuff like this has any value .. understand there's trips and biases but just as raw data ?

A. It has a TON of value IMO. I have used this angle seemingly forever to bet when I was focusing on that but also, to claim horses as well, back when I was focusing on that. I hardly ever focused on both at the same time. I was hard to worry about a bet when your spending thousands potentially on a horse. I could never do both. Claiming took all my time. That and training/running the ones I had.
But either way, I have found great success just waiting for opportunities to come up when races do things like what the Derby did.


Q. do you think if they do decide to run the preakness it's a sign that in there opinion he's in perfectly good shape to do so..if there was any question about it they would probably hedge on the conservative side and skip it ?

A. Yes. He would have to be in fine shape because I assume they want to try the Belmont for sure. You never know, but that's my guess.


We are going to have a lot to talk about with the Preakness and Belmont I'm pretty sure.

Thanks JBEX.

no problem str

I thought you would find what he did favorable and finishing way back will turn off a lot of the bettors..could be a very similiar type scenario that happened to the one's you mentioned ..he really does deserve a lot of credit for hanging on well to stretch call with that early pace..guess by later this week we might know if he will be going in the preakness and I personally hope he doesn't..would be nicer to have the derby as his last race and not possibly run big in the preakness which of course would expose him more for the belmont


as I mentioned the closest 4 male influences are all distance and high class including his sire who actually won it


be a lot of ranger fans rooting for him and a special name to win with in ny..heard the man himself is a big fan and will certainly be in attendance if he runs

we'll see what happens and any news will post


appreciate your feedback as always str





.

[OldBill]

LOL all the BS you know about horses and a bomb huge 2nd highest odds ever wins it 80-1 .............. i told wife it's going to be a longshot because all the favs were same price 5-1 5- 1 6-1

I never won any derby races because handicapping these horses is like nuts ............

[Easy-Rider 66]

LOL all the BS you know about horses and a bomb huge 2nd highest odds ever wins it 80-1 .............. i told wife it's going to be a longshot because all the favs were same price 5-1 5- 1 6-1

I never won any derby races because handicapping these horses is like nuts ............

Not sure what you are trying to infer here Billy, but if it is what I think take your act elsewhere

[JBEX]

messier and taiba not running in preakness..yakteen commented there might be distance limitations with the former in spite of the pace ?? goes against what I've been talking about because of his pedigree..still think he's going to wind up in the belmont

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.hor...kness_2022_123

[JBEX]

possibilities for the preakness..haven't read it yet



https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...os_a_maybe_123

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: One more question about Rich Strike. Did you know before the race went off that Rich Strike's only victory in his 7 race career came at CD where he won by 17 lengths? I did not as I briefly looked at his PP's and completely missed it. My main question is how much weight should one put on that kind of info? I know you made a valid point about Rich Strike losing ground to Tiz the Bomb in his 2 previous races at Turfway. Overall there were 4 other horses that had a win over the CD surface. 2 were MSW, 1 was an allowance and 1 was a breeders cup race. Rich Strike's was a MCL 30K. Anyway How much weight should a capper place on that kind of situation. THX.

[Easy-Rider 66]

also read a comment on twitter that said If Summer is Tomorrow is not in the race the pace would have been more moderate and Epicenter would Have won? I guess it make sense?

[JBEX]

went 1 more generation back in the female family of messier and there's another big distance influence HALO..I looked at the 5th and didn't recognize that sire and In Reality (another great sire ,no pun intended lol) ..that's a little too far

so he's by empire maker who won the belmont

dam sires going back 4 generations in order

smart strike (stout ,classy)


a p indy (belmont winner,one of the all time great sires)


seeking the gold (was an elite sire and dam sire)


halo* (sire of sunday silence .. one of the all time great sires ..greatest ever in japan)


* I remember (guessing 25-30 years ago) getting books rating sires for class and distance and halo was always one of those ranked very stout and classy

so messier bred to run all day through the dam sires in the female family

[str]

Hey STR: One more question about Rich Strike. Did you know before the race went off that Rich Strike's only victory in his 7 race career came at CD where he won by 17 lengths? I did not as I briefly looked at his PP's and completely missed it. My main question is how much weight should one put on that kind of info? I know you made a valid point about Rich Strike losing ground to Tiz the Bomb in his 2 previous races at Turfway. Overall there were 4 other horses that had a win over the CD surface. 2 were MSW, 1 was an allowance and 1 was a breeders cup race. Rich Strike's was a MCL 30K. Anyway How much weight should a capper place on that kind of situation. THX.

Q. Did you know before the race went off that Rich Strike's only victory in his 7 race career came at CD where he won by 17 lengths?

A. Yes. I saw that he won very easily and was claimed.

Q. My main question is how much weight should one put on that kind of info?

A. In a race where the horses are coming from all over, it has to be a plus that a horse has won over the surface. At least you know he takes to that surface which most usually do but not always. So it eliminates any worry of that. You can take it another notch and say he "likes" that surface. And off that lone win I'm not sure a handicapper can conclude that but he did win over it. My take when I saw it was he might have liked the track but he really liked maiden claiming 30k. That is the direction I went in. I did think about it for a half a minute or so when I was looking at that horse. If it had been a MSW, I would have considered it more heavily I suppose. No way I land on him other than the outer fringes at most though. And because I did not play triples or supers, he was a throw out for me.

Q. Anyway How much weight should a capper place on that kind of situation.

A. Off one win, you see it and it is always a good thing. Off 2 wins, especially if he is losing in similar company elsewhere, I think that is saying something very positive about the horse and the surface. But if the lone win was also by far the cheapest company he ran against, for just one win my mind goes to the company angle more than the surface but at least you know the horse does not dislike the surface.
However, when you see that an older horse " loves" a track and it's record shows that, I give that a lot of thought. Some horse DO LOVE a certain track and if over time that has played out, you can lean on it quite a bit IMO. (Same would go for an off track if a horse shows they run best when it is muddy or sloppy for instance. Also, heavy or yielding turf can be a huge edge if a horse shows they really like it. Or, just as important if they do NOT.
Like the Euros when the Breeders' Cup runs in Ky. They like the cooler weather as well as compared to California.)

When I went through the entire field, I looked at each horse and I always make it a point to see if a horse has a solid record on that particular surface. If it's just average, that's ok because it is telling you the horse does not hate the surface. Way above average, they probably really like the surface. I'm not much of a fan of coincidences. I guess they do occur, but most times in my mind, there are not nearly as many as people might think. Therefore, I put a lot of stock in how a horse has run on a certain surface. But you do have to weigh the quality of horses they ran against on that surface vs. other surfaces.

Hope all that makes sense EZ.

[Easy-Rider 66]

THX for the detailed explanation STR. I will never know if seeing that score at CD for Rich Strike would have made a difference for me. But I know I learned one lesson. Take A/E horses seriously if they draw in.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: want to get your opinion of the decision to Skip the Preakness by Rich Strike's connections. I do not think it's good for the game, but I understand the move. I guess you have to do what is best for the horse and your wallet's? What say you? THX in advance.

[Easy-Rider 66]

and do you think the fact that the Preakness is 1 mile and 3/16 played into their decision?

[str]

Hey STR: want to get your opinion of the decision to Skip the Preakness by Rich Strike's connections. I do not think it's good for the game, but I understand the move. I guess you have to do what is best for the horse and your wallet's? What say you? THX in advance.

The game, or any game, needs it's heroes and overnight sensations to perform on big stages. Skipping the Preakness obviously dulls the interest of the Triple Crown and the race. But they decided not to run. They are under the impression that this is best for the horse, or at least that is what they are saying. Honestly, in todays world of run every 40 days or more, who knows. That is not the game I knew. In todays game they have tons more drugs and run far less. Go figure.

I can't say this move is best for their wallet though. If he would win the Preakness and lose in the Belmont or not run, in my mind he would be worth more than if he sits out the Preakness and wins the Belmont. Why? Breeding in America is about speed and distances the offspring can run. And, he has a built in excuse in the Belmont because of it's 1 1/2 mile distance. That distance is only run a few times a year. From a pure business standpoint it is not the highest value move IMO, but we really don't know anything about the financial standing of the owner, trainer or anyone.
So I just look at it as " that is the decision they made". Also, I don't know the horse at all. No clue if he didn't eat for two days after the race and has been laying down a lot or if he is in great shape.
So it is really hard to have an opinion because we have no idea of what all is going on that helps make those decisions. Everything is all speculation.

In the World Series we see the best pitchers on the planet pitch on 2-3 days rest in games 5,6,7. They say they have the entire off season to rest. Well this horse has the rest of his life to rest after early June if he needs it. Or certainly as long as the trainer wants.

I will also say this. Horses that make one run from the 1/2 mile pole or later as a rule stay MUCH sounder than horses that battle from the gate to the wire. Obviously not everyone of them for individual reasons but by and large that statement is very true.

I also saw that they said he has been on a 5 week plan ( actually 5-7 weeks) since they claimed him. OK, but he lost all of those races prior to last Saturday. So, in my mind those are all just excuses to fit a narrative.

It is what it is EZ. I always thought a trainer, owner whoever owed it to the game itself at least to some extent. He was saying the horse would probably skip the race on Derby night. Because of that, we just think differently. Can't say they or others are right or wrong. It's how they view it. And it's how I viewed it. Just the way it is I guess.

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK STR thx for the take. sorry to see Rich Strike Skip the Preakness but I guess it is what it is. Good luck if you play the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown.

[str]

and do you think the fact that the Preakness is 1 mile and 3/16 played into their decision?

I would not think so but I don't think I see things the way they do, unless of course, the horse needs the time and this is all BS. If that is the case, well played.

Would the distance be too short a distance? That would be incredible if that was a real reason.

Under that rational, if it was true and who knows, a 2,200 yard race is fine but a 2,090 yard race is too short. I really would not know what to say about that.

All the best EZ.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I would not think so but I don't think I see things the way they do, unless of course, the horse needs the time and this is all BS. If that is the case, well played.

Would the distance be too short a distance? That would be incredible if that was a real reason.

Under that rational, if it was true and who knows, a 2,200 yard race is fine but a 2,090 yard race is too short. I really would not know what to say about that.

All the best EZ.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Lukas Livens Up Preakness With Secret Oath

While a filly taking on males is fairly commonplace in Europe, it's a relatively rare occurrence in American racing. Yet conventional wisdom has never limited the thinking of D. Wayne Lukas.

Hey STR: a filly secret Oath is running in the Preakness this Saturday. The above statement I copied from Bloodhorse. Can you think of any reason why European racing is different in this regard? THx in advance. And what is your overall opinion of the fillies taking on the boys?

[Easy-Rider 66]

A secondary question on D. Wayne. Any opinion on him STR? Ever since he ran what turned to be a decent turf horse into the ground in the Triple Crown season a decade ago(A horse named Optimizer) he has been one of my least favorite trainers. I know he just won the Oaks with Secret Oath but I wonder if the game has passed him BY? THX

06/09/12-R11

Optimizer

10th

Bel

1 1/2m

D

Belmont Stakes-G1

3

Union Rags

Paynter

Atigun

2:30.42

05/19/12-R12

Optimizer

6th

Pim

1 3/16 m

D

Preakness Stakes-G1

3

I'll Have Another

Bodemeister

Creative Cause

1:55.94

05/05/12-R11

Optimizer

11th

CD

1 1/4 m

D

Kentucky Derby-G1

3

I'll Have Another

Bodemeister

Dullahan

2:01.83

04/14/12-R8

Optimizer

9th

OP

1 1/8 m

D

Arkansas Derby-G1

3

Bodemeister

Secret Circle

Sabercat

1:48.71

03/17/12-R8

Optimizer

2nd

OP

1 1/16 m

D

Rebel Stakes-G2

3

Secret Circle

Optimizer

Scatman

1:44.55

02/25/12-R11

Optimizer

9th

FG

1 1/16 m

D

Risen Star-G2

3

El Padrino

Mark Valeski

Z Dager

1:42.96

01/16/12-R8

Optimizer

6th

OP

1 mile

D

Smarty Jones

06/09/12-R11

Optimizer

10th

Bel

1 1/2m

D

Belmont Stakes-G1

3

Union Rags

Paynter

Atigun

2:30.42

05/19/12-R12

Optimizer

6th

Pim

1 3/16 m

D

Preakness Stakes-G1

3

I'll Have Another

Bodemeister

Creative Cause

1:55.94

05/05/12-R11

Optimizer

11th

CD

1 1/4 m

D

Kentucky Derby-G1

3

I'll Have Another

Bodemeister

Dullahan

2:01.83

04/14/12-R8

Optimizer

9th

OP

1 1/8 m

D

Arkansas Derby-G1

3

Bodemeister

Secret Circle

Sabercat

1:48.71

03/17/12-R8

Optimizer

2nd

OP

1 1/16 m

D

Rebel Stakes-G2

3

Secret Circle

Optimizer

Scatman

1:44.55

02/25/12-R11

Optimizer

9th

FG

1 1/16 m

D

Risen Star-G2

3

El Padrino

Mark Valeski

Z Dager

1:42.96

01/16/12-R8

Optimizer

6th

OP

1 mile

D

Smarty Jones

[str]

Lukas Livens Up Preakness With Secret Oath

While a filly taking on males is fairly commonplace in Europe, it's a relatively rare occurrence in American racing. Yet conventional wisdom has never limited the thinking of D. Wayne Lukas.

Hey STR: a filly secret Oath is running in the Preakness this Saturday. The above statement I copied from Bloodhorse. Can you think of any reason why European racing is different in this regard? THx in advance. And what is your overall opinion of the fillies taking on the boys?

I think it is simply a difference of how someone was taught and what they have been around and come to believe in. In Europe, you see plenty of the male vs. female. It's rare as you know, in the USA.
The Euro horses are all about relax. There style, the horses atmosphere they are accustomed to, everything the trainer can provide, is aimed towards quiet, relax, finish.
Here in the U.S. take Pimlico for instance. Cars , helicopters, trucks, sirens, you name it. It's ridiculous. Asphalt walkways, instead of grass or dirt. No trees anywhere. It's hustle bustle. No, not all tracks are in the heart of a city like that place, but you see what I mean.
European horses will try and go out in sets of 4 or 5. They take the long moseying way to and from the track.
American is hustle, bustle. In and out. That is what I saw as the main difference.

My opinion on the fillies taking on the boys is pretty simple. Why run against them if you don't have to.

I'll comment on the Lukas conventional wisdom statement in the next post.

[str]

A secondary question on D. Wayne. Any opinion on him STR? Ever since he ran what turned to be a decent turf horse into the ground in the Triple Crown season a decade ago(A horse named Optimizer) he has been one of my least favorite trainers. I know he just won the Oaks with Secret Oath but I wonder if the game has passed him BY? THX

06/09/12-R11

Optimizer

10th

Bel

1 1/2m

D

Belmont Stakes-G1

3

Union Rags

Paynter

Atigun

2:30.42

05/19/12-R12

Optimizer

6th

Pim

1 3/16 m

D

Preakness Stakes-G1

3

I'll Have Another

Bodemeister

Creative Cause

1:55.94

05/05/12-R11

Optimizer

11th

CD

1 1/4 m

D

Kentucky Derby-G1

3

I'll Have Another

Bodemeister

Dullahan

2:01.83

04/14/12-R8

Optimizer

9th

OP

1 1/8 m

D

Arkansas Derby-G1

3

Bodemeister

Secret Circle

Sabercat

1:48.71

03/17/12-R8

Optimizer

2nd

OP

1 1/16 m

D

Rebel Stakes-G2

3

Secret Circle

Optimizer

Scatman

1:44.55

02/25/12-R11

Optimizer

9th

FG

1 1/16 m

D

Risen Star-G2

3

El Padrino

Mark Valeski

Z Dager

1:42.96

01/16/12-R8

Optimizer

6th

OP

1 mile

D

Smarty Jones

06/09/12-R11

Optimizer

10th

Bel

1 1/2m

D

Belmont Stakes-G1

3

Union Rags

Paynter

Atigun

2:30.42

05/19/12-R12

Optimizer

6th

Pim

1 3/16 m

D

Preakness Stakes-G1

3

I'll Have Another

Bodemeister

Creative Cause

1:55.94

05/05/12-R11

Optimizer

11th

CD

1 1/4 m

D

Kentucky Derby-G1

3

I'll Have Another

Bodemeister

Dullahan

2:01.83

04/14/12-R8

Optimizer

9th

OP

1 1/8 m

D

Arkansas Derby-G1

3

Bodemeister

Secret Circle

Sabercat

1:48.71

03/17/12-R8

Optimizer

2nd

OP

1 1/16 m

D

Rebel Stakes-G2

3

Secret Circle

Optimizer

Scatman

1:44.55

02/25/12-R11

Optimizer

9th

FG

1 1/16 m

D

Risen Star-G2

3

El Padrino

Mark Valeski

Z Dager

1:42.96

01/16/12-R8

Optimizer

6th

OP

1 mile

D

Smarty Jones

When I was at Pimlico with a barn full and Lucas came to town each year it seemed for the Preakness, my first instinct after watching him for a day or two that first year and every year that followed was to think "I don't care for this guy". Everything seemed like an act.

I never met him. I was asked to go with others and meet him but I always found a reason to not go. I just didn't really want to.

What I saw was a guy that never met a camera he didn't want to be in front of. Never met a reporter he didn't want to talk to , etc., etc.

That was just not who I was. It was not my personality at all. Delp was like that also.

Not King, not Mr. Tammaro , not Dick Dutrow, not Dickie Small, and certainly not Henry Clark. Not by a longshot.

I get that some people are like that. We were just very different.

My opinion on his race placement was the same as it is today with Bob as well as others.
What it seems like to me is win the Triple crown races at all costs. If plenty fall the wayside in trying to achieve that, collateral damage.

That is a different game than the one I played EZ. I just do not think I could train like that.



The pp's on Optimizer seem like a horse poorly spotted multiple times. But if the ownership was in the game to win the big one, what choice did Lukas have? You can lose owners that are pushy and demand running in bad spots if you say no too many times. I have no way of knowing if that was the case or not. But I do know that D. Wayne ran more than a few that had no chance whatsoever in those limelight races.
I guess you just write it off to who he is and what he does. He's not going to change now. So the owners must be on board with that right?

The Spectacular Bid book spoke to the Meyerhof's, who had money to burn. They did not need a dime to be in the game. They wanted to win when they brought a friend to the track. If the horse got claimed and they netted a 20k lose, they did not care. It was the show they wanted for their friends or clientele they were entertaining. That is obviously D. Wayne's world as well.
My world was completely different.

So who is right and who is wrong. Neither I guess. Just very different.

As for the game passing him by, I don't think so. He was never a conservative style trainer and as he gets up there in years, every chance can be his last. So I think he will just continue to be who he is and hope for a little bit more glory.

Hope that makes sense EZ.

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK STR thx for the honest take on D. Wayne. I guess like you said every trainer has a certain Mindset and also the owners come into play as well. AS for the fillies taking on the boys I read today that NEST who placed 2nd in the Oaks may run in the Belmont? I recall Rachael Alexandra winning the Preakness some years ago and Of course Winning Colors scoring in the Derby back in your day. Personally I like when the fillies step up their game so to speak but understand your point as well. I think it adds intrigue to the game. THX again STR.

[str]

OK STR thx for the honest take on D. Wayne. I guess like you said every trainer has a certain Mindset and also the owners come into play as well. AS for the fillies taking on the boys I read today that NEST who placed 2nd in the Oaks may run in the Belmont? I recall Rachael Alexandra winning the Preakness some years ago and Of course Winning Colors scoring in the Derby back in your day. Personally I like when the fillies step up their game so to speak but understand your point as well. I think it adds intrigue to the game. THX again STR.

Yeah, I agree. Fillies against the boys is great for the game in the U.S.

It brings a different level of interest .