[danshan11]

Gaze it literally is this simple, nobody thinks any of that.
if they are +100 at close they have in most markets roughly a 48.5% chance of winning, none of that other stuff matters, that is how it works, there is no dispute with anyone but you on that.
Ghosts not real
Traps not real
odds give you implied probability with a drop of margin thats it dude

[Gaze73]

Well that's funny because I already cashed 4 out of 4 traps today, I guess the favs were unlucky.

[danshan11]

I cant compete with that Gaze, I think I went 1 out of 4 yesterday, I SUCK

Date

Team

League

Close

Bet At

Bet Amt

Result

O/U Spread

Actual CLV

8/31	Dream	WNBA	-208	-110	1.10	W		6				15.15%
8/31	Dream	WNBA	104	-108	1.08	L		O158.5				-2.90%
8/31	Storm	WNBA	-133	-110	1.10	L		3.5				4.70%
8/31	Storm	WNBA	-112	-105	1.05	L		O172				1.61%

they were all baby opener bets and I did not bet any baseball cause I was traveling.

[Alfa1234]

Well that's funny because I already cashed 4 out of 4 traps today, I guess the favs were unlucky.

Do you mind posting your traps before the game?

[danshan11]

for my brother gaze they are all traps

[jets96]

I think one thing that sticks out to me is a guy who has too many plays on a small card

say the MLB card has 10 games that means 10 sides and 10 totals
usually average roughly about a guy has 1 or maybe 2 plays out of that
and I see these guys with 12 plays, that to me is usually a big sign "this guy dont know shit" or "he just throws a bunch of shit up" but he definitely is not getting value on that many plays out of 20
I mean like I found 1 play on the WNBA playoffs and I was shocked there was one with only 2 games and all the posts I see guys picking 3 or 4 plays out of 4 available plays, that to me tells me they are FOS.

It was hard to find plays during the mlb playoffs , and i do agree about the amount of plays thing

[danshan11]

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...nba-picks.html

I started NBA yesterday!

[qsgsg]

One more time. The discussion above is based on the faulty assumption that your non-random wager selections will perform at the aggregates 50/50 rate which may or may not be true. You cannot use a 50/50 simulator if your selections do not perform that way. GIGO garbage info in, garbage info out. Each individual event is not 50/50 even though the aggregate has a 50/50 rate.

I make many wagers where I wait for the line to go up (a better price) but according to the BTCL theory I could never have value in that wager because I can't BTCL in that scenario which is of course false.

I honestly don't know what else to write. The statistical inference that an individual event will perform exactly as the aggregate is just absolutely statistically incorrect. There is no way to prove this other than with results.

If you can be profitable trying to BTCL, congratulations, but it is not necessary. I am not aware of any book that pays based on CLV therefore wins and losses matter very much. I was going to elaborate on this but I would probably be wasting my time.

i honestly wish the best of luck to all but please be aware that there is more than one way to go about being profitable and there are no "have to do's" other than making selections that collect more on your winners than you lose on your losers.

Joe.

This. Very similar to how i get things done.

[qsgsg]

Well that's funny because I already cashed 4 out of 4 traps today, I guess the favs were unlucky.

Traps are simply mispriced opening lines, depending on which of your own model you use. The book has their own model and you have your own.

If you still believe that traps do exist , does it matter? If there is value you would go for it, otherwise you won't.

[danshan11]

This. Very similar to how i get things done.

can you please explain to me how books can take bets than if the line means nothing to the result of the game over 1000s of games?

[qsgsg]

can you please explain to me how books can take bets than if the line means nothing to the result of the game over 1000s of games?

How Pin Balance their books is a complex matter.

[danshan11]

yes but basically the idea is to beat the line
they are willing to take bets and have action on one side or the other with some juice(AKA beating the line)

[qsgsg]

yes but basically the idea is to beat the line
they are willing to take bets and have action on one side or the other with some juice(AKA beating the line)

Your method works in the long run but the ROI is much lower, though i will say the risk is lower. I just use a different approach to attain a higher yield but definitely at a higher risk.

[tsty]

That makes no sense

Higher yield is less risk

[qsgsg]

the higher yield attained is because of the strategy used, which is riskier . You don't assess the risk after you make the profit.

[danshan11]

when you say higher risk what do you mean? I mean not ironically but what do you use as a measuring stick of skill and not random luck?

[tsty]

I dont think you understand the meaning of the words ur using

[qsgsg]

when you say higher risk what do you mean? I mean not ironically but what do you use as a measuring stick of skill and not random luck?

Personally , a proven system like yours that requires less human selection choices is less risky. Over time it is almost guaranteed a profit. However , a system that is pure bettors skill or a combination of skill plus a system is more risky.

Humans dont always make the right observations and decisions but then again the potential for profit is much greater.


A yard stick for skill:
The same question can be applied to commodity/options/etc trader and it is the same answer.

[tsty]

Lol

[danshan11]

Personally , a proven system like yours that requires less human selection choices is less risky. Over time it is almost guaranteed a profit. However , a system that is pure bettors skill or a combination of skill plus a system is more risky.

Humans dont always make the right observations and decisions but then again the potential for profit is much greater.


A yard stick for skill:
The same question can be applied to commodity/options/etc trader and it is the same answer.

I think essentially in the end the modeler and the gut bettor do about the same thing in sense. They both are looking for value in lines.

[peacebyinches]

First, to clarify, I don't only wager on closing lines, I also sometimes wager on lines nearer to the opening and sometimes I even beat the closer but that is not my focus. And no, I don't beat the closer often enough or by enough of a spread to account for my profitability. Whether or not I wager nearer the opening or the close is determined by the criteria that determined the event selection.

Second, as to sample size, I really do not want to discuss my personal figures other than to say that I have been doing this successfully for over 40 years and my results are well beyond 3 sd's. I have only had 1 losing year and that was my very first year. I actually started out wagering on horses and it was that experience where I learned the concepts and methods that I have used to make money on various endeavors including horses, jai alai, greyhounds, hedging, live wagering and sports wagering (taxes paid as necessary for any of you IRS agents out there).

To continue, it does not matter whether you (group you not you personally) believe me or not. But you know whether or not you are profitable (unless you are fooling yourself). If you are profitable, great, continue what you are doing. Nothing I write should interfere with that. But if you are not profitable, then you have to or at least should question what you are doing and/or whether or not what you believe is true or not.

I am not really a gambler, I was attracted to wagering more for the puzzle of it, not because I was a sporting nut. I needed to "solve" the puzzle. I will not discuss specific criteria but when I have some time I will write about how I started and how the light bulb moment came for me.

As a starter , there was a post that reminded me of how I started that asked essentially what happens to your wager if Judge and Stanton are scratched. I know I can Google it but I won't and didn't. I have heard the name of Judge, I think I heard that he is a home run hitter but I had no clue who Stanton is and I have no clue what positions these two play or for that matter I can't even remember what team the post mentioned (Yankees?). To relate that to my story from the mid 70's, another horse player asked me who I wagered on and I told him and then he asked me who was riding the horse and I told him I didn't know and of course he told me that I couldn't bet on a horse if I didn't know who was riding him! Of course that is not true and part of my story if and when I get around to posting it.

Again, good luck to all regardless of what method(s) you use.

Joe.

I’d be very interested in hearing more! When you have some time to sit down and write, I say go for it, it could be very beneficial for us to hear, or at the very least interesting to get another viewpoint!

[qsgsg]

I think essentially in the end the modeler and the gut bettor do about the same thing in sense. They both are looking for value in lines.

I think you meant analytical bettor. Gut bettors almost never make it long term.

[danshan11]

I think you meant analytical bettor. Gut bettors almost never make it long term.

analytical and gut bettor are the same thing they just don't know it.
if you say Judge is a .320 hitter against Paxton that is in the line. Pretty much any stat you analyze that matters is in the line already. So analytical and gut bettor do the exact same thing because analysis on a game is already in the line so you are back to just choosing with your gut.

[Toples]

Binomial distribution can help you weed out luck from skill

I'm gonna use my real numbers i got from last 45 days (November and October). and also 3 imaginary winning betting friends

I bet i lot. I'm gonna have over 50 bets today (mostly CFB). I dont care for winning %, i care how much i profit. And i bet every game i think i can win. works fine so far...

So i got 363-311 record (53,85%) with average line of -107 for last 45 days. 15 bets per day on average. 30 units profit. bank of 50-100 units, or you wont be able to bet so many daily with 3 bookies.
if you use binomial probability calculator, and ask yourself, if i do a coin flip (50-50 event), how likely is it that i got this on pure luck? The number that comes out is 2,5%. So there is 97,5% chance im actually onto something.

Now lets see my friend John. He bets 1 a day. Thats his strategy. so in 45 bets his record is 30-15 (66,67%). Impressive isnt it? But John won only 14 units. Binomial calculator says John is likely also a good capper, as only in 1,8% of cases you can get this many bets right by pure luck.

An my friend Timmy. He bets 2 daily on average. So he got 90 bet and have won 55 (61,11%). Timmy has won 17,5 units. Binomial calculator shows you could get this being lucky in 2,2% of cases.

And my pro friend Marc. He's a pro gambler. He got 225 bets in last 45 days, 5 a day on average. His record is 125-100 (55,5%) with 18 units in pocket. He hit his long time percentage. If you dont know Marc, and you try to evaluate him on his last 45 days, you will see that you can get this lucky in 5,5% cases by chance.

If you can follow one of us, who will you follow? We all seem ok, but how much money you have to spare?

If you follow me, you got to have at least 50 units bank. But if you follow John, you can just bet 1 unit until you pick up a few units.

So a betting style is also dependent on how much money you have. If you have a lot, you can follow me. But if you can spare only 1K, you should try with some other guys...

[bhoor]

Binomial distribution can help you weed out luck from skill

I'm gonna use my real numbers i got from last 45 days (November and October). and also 3 imaginary winning betting friends

I bet i lot. I'm gonna have over 50 bets today (mostly CFB). I dont care for winning %, i care how much i profit. And i bet every game i think i can win. works fine so far...

So i got 363-311 record (53,85%) with average line of -107 for last 45 days. 15 bets per day on average. 30 units profit. bank of 50-100 units, or you wont be able to bet so many daily with 3 bookies.
if you use binomial probability calculator, and ask yourself, if i do a coin flip (50-50 event), how likely is it that i got this on pure luck? The number that comes out is 2,5%. So there is 97,5% chance im actually onto something.

Now lets see my friend John. He bets 1 a day. Thats his strategy. so in 45 bets his record is 30-15 (66,67%). Impressive isnt it? But John won only 14 units. Binomial calculator says John is likely also a good capper, as only in 1,8% of cases you can get this many bets right by pure luck.

An my friend Timmy. He bets 2 daily on average. So he got 90 bet and have won 55 (61,11%). Timmy has won 17,5 units. Binomial calculator shows you could get this being lucky in 2,2% of cases.

And my pro friend Marc. He's a pro gambler. He got 225 bets in last 45 days, 5 a day on average. His record is 125-100 (55,5%) with 18 units in pocket. He hit his long time percentage. If you dont know Marc, and you try to evaluate him on his last 45 days, you will see that you can get this lucky in 5,5% cases by chance.

If you can follow one of us, who will you follow? We all seem ok, but how much money you have to spare?

If you follow me, you got to have at least 50 units bank. But if you follow John, you can just bet 1 unit until you pick up a few units.

So a betting style is also dependent on how much money you have. If you have a lot, you can follow me. But if you can spare only 1K, you should try with some other guys...

Timmy?

[danshan11]

Toples you are the greatest gambler I have ever met, nice to meet you. I am very hesitant at only 700 games to say that but impressive to say the least. I am not sure what you are reading into the binomial Calculator but I think you might be a bit off the path on your calculations. when you take the binomial tutorial look for the word exactly. I think it might play into your 2.5% finding a bit. Why do you think your bookies take your action, just like donating to you, think you are a nice guy and want you to succeed?

[Toples]

Toples you are the greatest gambler I have ever met, nice to meet you. I am very hesitant at only 700 games to say that but impressive to say the least. I am not sure what you are reading into the binomial Calculator but I think you might be a bit off the path on your calculations. when you take the binomial tutorial look for the word exactly. I think it might play into your 2.5% finding a bit. Why do you think your bookies take your action, just like donating to you, think you are a nice guy and want you to succeed?

i use pinnacle, sbo (sometimes small limits) and change others from time to time. And pinnacle wont limit me ever. I've just dropped a couple of books, because of security issues, they didnt limit me so far.

I had silly limits or unable to bet at all (888sports) after just a few bets in some A rated books. You just drop them and move on.

i usually dont move the line, except in case of college sports. and they move it instantly after i play it so that is why they take my action (i guess). But i dont rely on beating the closing line. I do in 60% cases probably, other stuff is betting the closing line when i think its wrong. Both approaches are profitable for me.

Also, Im not betting in 1000s, its in 100s. So bookies probably think im cheaper than skilled trader they pay to take care of lines.

I have a steady (not 8 hours though) real life job (I dont want to find myself ****** cuz something might go wrong) i do from my home so i can bet all day long.

And i started literaly with 50 cents left in poker account 13 years ago. But thats story for some other topic...

[tsty]

13 years of betting and your max bet is 100

You should of quit long ago

Gambling isnt supposed to be a hobby or fub

[Toples]

now im betting in 100s, not 100 - that X times 100

i didnt come to average bet 100 till 3 years ago. I was just doing it for fun, i had small kids and couldnt afford the time so i played when i could and nowhere close to number of bets i play now. but the bankroll grew steadily, though i often had to withdraw some to cover expenses

i finally went 100% 2 years ago after i had a good season. Its a lot of work, but im gambling degeneric like most here

[tsty]

Wait.. you bet full time?

[Toples]

Wait.. you bet full time?

with 100% i meant i do it every day, not just now and then. i do have a steady job, but it allows me to bet whole day since its job on computer (mostly at home) and it takes 2-4 hours every day to complete that so i got time for betting. Before i worked for 8-12 hours (another company), plus 1 hour travel, plus small kids, family and friends time. So no time for betting everyday, maybe on SUN/SAT while football season was on.

But Im just not confident enough the methods i use now will work forever, so for now im not going to leave an easy job with good $$$ and great boss.

and Im still in process of building my bankroll until i reach $1000 a bet. i do it steadily and carefully, making sure i can take a bad run... (like 24 loses in a row i had once 10 years ago)

[danshan11]

Toples post 5 plays as soon as you pick them and I will let you know what I think, I dont care about the sport just post 5 plays when you bet them

[Toples]

Toples post 5 plays as soon as you pick them and I will let you know what I think, I dont care about the sport just post 5 plays when you bet them

whats the point of that? you cant know anything from 5 plays

But i will tell you my worst bet of the day; titans (losing 23-0)

[pretentiousGuy]

You should of quit long ago

Gambling isnt supposed to be a hobby or fub

should have*

Also gambling isn't supposed to be a hobby? Why? If you're breaking even or better I don't see the problem.

[danshan11]

whats the point of that? you cant know anything from 5 plays

But i will tell you my worst bet of the day; titans (losing 23-0)

5 plays will tell me a ton