[Cross]

Just hard to believe he will have the speed at 240.

[Andy117]

It will be difficult for him to lose the weight and especially to keep it off.

Most players lose weight during the season.

[jetsjets1028]

lester to see if he continues sucking

[will2survive]

uh...Miguel Cabrera-lol

[stevenash]

Mike Carp ,OF - SEA (for now) - It definitely looks like Mike Carp will be heading out of town this week after a marginally surprising designation for assignment last week, and that should put all of us on alert for some "leaving Seattle sleeper potential". One obvious potential destination is Milwaukee, where Mat Gamel just went down with a major injury for the second straight season, but I'm sure there are other teams kicking the tires as well. Carp is hitting his age-27 season coming off an injury-plagued campaign in which he only managed a .213 AVG and 5 HR in 164 ABs, but he did manage 33 HRs and a much more respectable slash line between two levels in 2011. Depending on where he lands, I could see him pushing 20 HRs, and while AVG is never likely to be a strong point with his swinging strike%. he did have especially bad luck on balls in play last year....I would imagine .245-.255 is more in line with what we ought to expect. Stay tuned the next few days for news on his fate, and barring a deal into a situation where he's really blocked for time I think he could provide close to average offensive production for an OF.

Dustin Ackley, 2B - SEA - I think it's safe to say that something will give this year for the 25 year old Ackley, if only because the M's might actually have some other options this year if he continues to scuffle. Ackley had a disastrous 2012, offering up 12 HRs and 13 SBs to go along with 84 R....only amassing that much in the way of counting stats because he made it to the plate 668 times. He had fairly awful luck on balls in play, so some positive AVG regression should be expected, but really the hope here is that the offseason surgery on his left ankle will allow him to push off of his back foot better at the plate this year. Ackley has very good strike zone control and good speed, but despite the pedigree there has been little to suggest any expectation of massive improvement. His ability to stay healthy and his lineup spot do indicate that any small improvement will push him into a category of player that will help you: 100 R and 15-20 SB aren't out of the question, and he does hit enough line drives that you'd expect an AVG more like .270-.285 than what he did last year. Plus, he's still just 25, so perhaps 15-20 HR power is coming as well. A lot has to go right, but I'm not completely ready to write him off just yet....the Mariners really did push him pretty quickly through the system so it's possible there was some growth consolidation involved here. I would rate him slightly more highly than his prior performance would indicate at present.

Alexei Ramirez, SS - CWS - Ramirez is now claiming that he injured his wrist July 27thof last year and that it bothered him the rest of the way.....if I were him I would claim the pinky fingernail that he tore off in late August instead, because August was clearly his best month of a very poor 2012. Ramirez doesn't walk, has average power, and turned 31 this offseason. He can basically be expected to give you average production across the board, which definitely has value in many formats, but expecting much different after five years is really more wishing than expecting. His ability to stay in the lineup is probably his greatest attribute, and that alone should maintain some value in all formats for the White Sox SS.

Jeff Keppinger, 3B - CWS - Jeff Keppinger is going into 2013 holding the starting 3B job for Chicago, but really, we all know what the soon-to-be 33 year old is going to give you: a bunch of singles. Keppinger isn't a bad guy to throw on a deeper league roster, particularly in AL-only formats where you can run him out there cheaply knowing he won't hurt you in anything in all likelihood, but in terms of upside there's virtually none. I like the possibility of Brent Morel breaking out a bit this year if his back is healthy....I liked it last year and I'm pretty stubborn. If that comes to pass, Keppinger will likely still get ABs, because he can play pretty much anywhere in a pinch, and the White Sox have a few guys that are prone to some hefty slumps. Deeper leagues only here.

Travis Hafner, DH - NYY - Honestly, I'm pretty excited about Travis Hafner DHing in New York. Granted, he just simply isn't able to stay healthy that much anymore, but he's still just 35 and has remained very productive when able to play. Since he's going to play playing half of his games in what might be the perfect park for him, it's certainly realistic to expect solid production from him. He isn't likely to play more than 2/3 of the time between platooning and the inevitable health concerns, but he should be a nice little sleeper this year in formats of any depth, even if he is only eligible at DH under normal rules.

Austin Romine, C - NYY - Does anyone think the Yankees are going all season with Cervelli and Stewart behind the dish? Austin Romine missed most of last season with a lower back injury, but he put up solid if unspectacular numbers in A and AA ball from age 19-21, and he's still just 24 with infinitely more upside than the aforementioned veterans. If you're looking for a second catcher in deeper formats and are allowed to roster players who might not be in the majors to start the year, you could probably do worse than throwing a buck here. He has decent gap power, a bit of speed for a backstop, and has shown decent abilities to hit for average and maintain plate discipline.

Hunter Morris, 1B - MIL - Mat Gamel's horrendous fortune continues, as he has somehow re-torn his ACL right in the middle of the repaired section from last season, basically ensuring that he will miss the entire 2013 campaign. The Brewers are exploring other alternatives at 1B, including recently designated Mike Carp from Seattle, but assistant GM Gord Ash has said that Hunter Morris is one of the favorites for the job at this point. Morris is a 2010 4th round draftee out of Auburn that put up great numbers in the Southern League last year (303/357/563) on the heels of a fairly mediocre season at Brevard County in 2011 (271/299/461). Morris is a fairly impatient hitter, but he does have some power and has increased his AVG at each of his three steps thus far as well. Stranger things have happened, but with his BB and K numbers combined with his struggles against LHP, I'd be surprised if he's ready to perform at the MLB level. Taylor Green is another option if the Brewers stay in-house, but after a subpar 2012 he is likely viewed as a backup plan. Green is basically a slightly more patient version of Morris, with the added benefit of having played more at the higher levels, and is still just 26. I would consider him a solid late-game sleeper in NL-only leagues right now. I expect the Brewers to make a deal, but if they don't Morris or Green could potentially provide some value in deeper formats.

Scott Sizemore, 2B/3B - OAK - The Oakland IF situation is a mess right now after the Jed Lowrie acquisition, and it is distinctly possible that not one player in that infield will play more than 2/3 of the time, but if we rewind back to spring 2012 we can revisit Scott Sizemore's sleeper case. At times in the minors Sizemore has shown the ability to hit .300, hit 15 HRs, and steal 15 bases, and if he were to win a full-time job the likelihood of a .280-12-15 year would be reasonable in my estimation, but this is going to take some time to sort out this spring. Sizemore is competing directly with Jemile Weeks for time at 2B, and indirectly with Jed Lowrie and Josh Donaldson for any playing time at all. In fact, the Athletics appear to have multiple starting-caliber (at least via potential) at almost every spot on the diamond, so perhaps another deal is in the works. As far as the IF goes, Lowrie is probably the best player of the bunch, while Nakajima appears to have the SS job locked up before anyone sees him play against MLB competition, while Moss will play against RHP at 1B. I think Sizemore is probably the best player at 2B, and would love to have him on my squad if he wins the playing time, but we won't know much there for a few weeks.

Peter Bourjos, OF - LAA - After a complete cipher of a 2012 season, Peter Bourjos remains a potential impact OF bat. Bourjos hit 19 homers and swiped 37 bases as a 23 year old between AAA and MLB, and a solid first full season in 2011 lent hopes for a breakout last year. Instead he was shoved aside by Mike Trout, picking up only 168 ABs in a wasted season. With Kendrys Morales and Torii Hunter replaced by Josh Hamilton only, Bourjos appears to be back in action. He doesn't make enough contact to expect a high AVG, but his power and speed are intriguing enough to make him a solid choice in many formats this spring.

Cliff Pennington, SS - ARI - For me, Pennington is a definite NL-only sleeper this year. First off, he's moving from the tougher league to the easier league, and from a park that depresses run scoring by almost 20% to one that enhances it by more than 10%. Secondly, 5X5 players are always looking for steals entering the league, and Pennington has tallied double-digits in steals for 6 straight years including his minor league tenure. Finally, Pennington had abnormally bad luck with BABIP last season. He managed an LD rate over 20% for the third straight year, yet his BABIP was only .259. For whatever reason, Pennington normally has a BABIP below expectations, but this was off by 50 points or so even given his proclivities. He's also generally a healthy player, so expecting something like .265-.270 with 10 homers and 15 steals to go along with better R and RBI totals than he has posted previously between the better offense and better park effects seems very reasonable to me.

Travis Snider, OF - PIT - On the one hand, you have a 25 year old with a career 308/383/528 line in the minors (and better than insignificant speed) that appears to have the inside track on a starting OF spot for an improving offense. On the other hand, you have a guy that is hitting 248/309/415 over almost 1000 ABs in the majors and appears to have made virtually zero progress in five partial big league seasons. In essence, you have a flyer. With Jose Tabata and Alex Presley hanging around behind him, Snider doesn't really have any longer of a leash with Pittsburgh than he did with Toronto, and his 50 games with the Bucs post-deadline were underwhelming to say the least. Still, the potential is there, and it's significant. I'm still prepared to gamble on him for the right price in all formats...it wasn't just in the rare Vegas air that he was able to hit on the way up the ladder.

Shaun Marcum, SP - NYM - I can just about sum this up by saying that Shaun Marcum, extreme flyball pitcher extraordinaire, is moving from the easiest park for HRs in the majors in 2012 to an average HR park in Citi Field, and thus should be expected to improve. Marcum had some elbow and shoulder issues during the second half last year, so it isn't quite that easy to forecast, but he has pitched through similar things in the past with excellent results, so he is certainly someone that I'd feel comfortable gambling on. There just aren't that many sure things, and assuming that the slight deterioration in control was injury-related, I expect Marcum to be back in the 3.50-3.60 range this year with a typically solid WHIP.

Leonys Martin, OF - TEX - One of the biggest rookie upsides has to belong to Texas' Leonys Martin, although he has plenty of competition for playing time in the Ranger OF. Unlike those he is vying with for playing time, Julio Borbon and Craig Gentry, Martin is more than just a slap-hitting speedster. He clearly has 20/20 potential, and including his winter league time this year is hitting over .300 as a professional. He may not quite be ready, but rest assured he has more upside than anyone in that OF other than Cruz. He is definitely one to stash in the minors even if he doesn't win the job this spring, as I certainly expect some sort of impact from him here in 2013.

Jacob Turner, SP - MIA - I'm a big Jake Turner fan, despite my propensity to weight performance a bit heavier than scouting reports, although he's certainly going to be pitching in front of one of the worst offenses in baseball. His numbers for seven starts with the Marlins (3.37 ERA, 0.98 WHIP) were pretty solid for a 21 year old, and I am in the camp that believes that his swinging strike% is indicative of better K rates to come. His control is solid and the HR rate should remain much improved: his GB rate is better than you'd expect given his previous HR rates and he's moving to one of the best pitching environments around. Wins are going to be tough to find, but for a back-end guy he might be all right this year, certainly in deeper leagues, and dynasty leaguers should still be all over him.

Kyle McPherson, P - PIT - Kyle McPherson is a deep sleeper at this point, but it's easy to envision a scenario where he cracks the Pirate rotation, and with his excellent control and roughly average "everything else", he could be a solid #5 starter in deeper formats. The upside here is limited, however.

Other Projection News and Notes: OF Mike Trout says he's not fat! He reported to camp this season about 15 pounds more than last year, but says it's mostly muscle and that he expects to lose 10 pounds during spring training anyway.

[stevenash]

Dodgers closer situation

Given his $22.5 million contract, it's widely expected (and basically confirmed this month by manager Don Mattingly) that Brandon Leaguewill open as the team's closer. This despite Kenley Jansen strikeout out an incredible 41.5% of all batters he faced over the past two years (second only to Craig Kimbrel), a trait you certainly want in your closer. League of course lost the closer job to Tom Wilhelmsen in Seattle last year before being dealt to LA, but he pitched much better in LA, allowing just one earned run over his final 21.1 innings. Barring an awful spring, League is the guy come Opening Day, but after that, who knows. I would put Jansen at the top of my non-closer relievers cheat sheet and it wouldn't surprise me at all if Jansen finished 2013 with more saves than League.

Dodgers left side of the infield

As it stands, Hanley Ramirez is set to be the shortstop and Luis Cruz the third baseman. Don Mattingly has stated that he's comfortable defensively with Ramirez, so expect him to be the guy come Opening Day. Another scenario has Dee Gordon hitting .400 with a .500 OBP and 20 stolen bases this spring and beating out Luis Cruz. Gordon could then be the SS and Ramirez the third baseman. That said, all signs point to Gordon opening in Triple-A, gaining strength, and working on his pitch recognition. Watch him this spring though, as the door to a starting job is at least slightly ajar, and given his SB ability, he could be a huge asset in time.

Padres rotation

As of the opening of spring training, it's generally believed that three of the five rotation slots are locked down by Edinson Volquez, Clayton Richard, and Jason Marquis. Casey Kelly is believed to be slotted for one spot barring a terrible spring, so that leaves a slew of candidates for the final spot. These would be Eric Stults (a Petco-aided 2.92 ERA in 92.1 innings last year), veteran Freddy Garcia (5.20 ERA with the Yankees), Tyson Ross (yeah that 1.81 WHIP isn't good), perennially-injuredAndrew Cashner (probably a reliever), formerly-good but injured last year Tim Stauffer, and a host of other unappealing options. Regardless of how this shakes out, whomever wins this job is probably just filler until Cory Luebke returns from Tommy John surgery, which is likely happening sometime in May. I'd guess that Stults wins this job, but it's hard to like any of these guys despite the favorable pitching environment.

Padres second base job

Padre second basemen hit a collective .251/.312/.378 last season, with Logan Forsythe accumulating the most at-bats and slightly exceeding those numbers at .269/.339/.386. Forsythe however will be challenged by Jedd Gyorko this spring. Gyorko has been primarily a third baseman in the minors, but with Chase Headley occupying that slot, Gyorko played quite a bit of second base over the second half of 2012. Why should you watch him? Well, last year's 30 homers between Double-A and Triple-A and his .325/.377/.585 Triple-A slash line, that's why. There are questions about his 2B defense, but if he proves he can handle the position this spring, it's unlikely Forsythe will block his far better bat.

Dbacks #5 starter

Ian Kennedy, Trevor Cahill, Brandon McCarthy, and Wade Miley are locked into four slots, leaving one spot for one of Pat Corbin, Tyler Skaggs, and Randall Delgado. Maybe a couple guys get hurt, but this may be a rare case of having too much pitching. Anyway, this will be an all-out competition this spring that I expect Skaggs to win. He has the advantage of being left-handed, and he's certainly the most highly-touted of the competitors. Skaggs was fairly unimpressive in the big leagues last year (29.1 IP, 5.83 ERA, 21:13 K:BB in 29.1 IP), but it's likely he was a bit wore down, and given that was his age 20 season, we can overlook the small sample size. Skaggs has reportedly added 20 pounds of muscle/weight over the winter as he looks to maintain his stamina deeper into the second half.

Dbacks outfield

Out is Justin Upton and in is Cody Ross, with Jason Kubel and Gerardo Parrareturning to what is quickly becoming a crowded outfield yet again. Kubel will play most days, with the occasional rest against tough left-handers. Ross is a lefty-killer, but he wasn't given $26 million to be a platoon guy. That leaves CF up for grabs between Parra and Adam Eaton. Eaton is coming off a season in which he batted a PCL-inflated .381/.456/.539, and with his speed, pitch recognition, and OBP skills, the Dbacks will give him every shot at the CF job. Expect him to win it with a nice spring. Parra will rotation in often, likely getting in the range of 300 at-bats, so his value is limited to NL-only formats. A.J. Pollock and newly-acquired Tony Campana would appear to have little value barring injury.

Logan Morrison, OF, MIA -
In case it wasn't on your radar, Morrison underwent knee surgery five months ago. He's currently rehabbing, but the latest is that he won't be ready to return to the lineup until April 15. That could change, so keep an eye on his progress this spring. Morrison is coming off a .230/.308/.399 season, one perhaps impacted by the knee, so he's a bit of a bounceback candidate given he did hit 23 homers the year prior. Of course if he winds up hitting behind Giancarlo Stanton on a gutted Marlins roster, the RBIs likely won't be coming in bunches, but he's still looking like a decent buy low option.

Grant Balfour, RP, OAK -
It's sounding like Balfour's recent knee surgery isn't going to prevent him from being ready for Opening Day. Whether he or Ryan Cook closes is somewhat up in the air, but all signs point to Balfour being the guy. He tossed a career-high 74.2 innings in 2012, posting a 2.53 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and a solid 8.7 K/9. Balfour benefitted from a somewhat low .211 BABIP, and his walk rate actually went up a little over 2012, but even at 35, he still has the stuff to be a solid closer. It's worth noting his $4.5 million salary however, so Balfour could certainly find himself setting up for a contender come July.

Brandon McCarthy, SP, ARI -
When he's healthy, McCarthy can at times be one of the better third starters in the league. Still, given his career high in innings is 170.2 and he's never made more than 25 starts in a season, it's hard to see his two-year $15.5 million deal working out well for anyone not named Brandon McCarthy. Posting ERAs of 3.32 and 3.24 in Oakland is one thing, but he's now moving to a far tougher pitching environment. His road ERAs the past two seasons were both solid at 3.66 and 3.99 and yes, no DH in the NL, but he's too frustrating for me to roster given the medical issues. His WHIP won't hurt you, but the lack of strikeouts and the injuries will frustrate.

Jason Kipnis, 2B, CLE -
I for one am very bullish on Kipnis this year, and with the news this week that he may be slotted third in the order after Michael Bourn and Asdrubal Cabrera, it's easy to see the second baseman approaching 100 RBI. The big question will be how his SB total is affected, as he did swipe 31 last year. Batting third I can see that number dropping slightly (25?), but I expect the RBIs to increase and just general improvement in his approach will help as well. I can see the case for slotting Kipnis as the #2-ranked second baseman behind Cano, but ahead of Kinsler and Pedroia.

Trevor Plouffe, 3B, MIN -
How Plouffe responds to a breakout 2012 will be one story I'll be watching. After looking like a first-round bust for most of his career, Plouffe suddenly hit 24 homers for the 3B-starved Twins and heads to camp as the likely 2013 starter. That said, he has questions defensively, and a 78% contact rate and 0.40 EYE led to an anemic .235 average. Plouffe also hit .238 and .244 in Triple-A the past couple years, so these sort of issues aren't exactly new. It could be that a July thumb injury was a contributing factor, but expecting more than .240 this year is probably foolish.

Justin Smoak, 1B, SEA -
The prize of the Cliff Lee deal, Smoak has failed to live up to expectations in Seattle. He's shown decent power the past two seasons with a 26.8 AB/HR rate, but he's slow, and EYEs of .52 and .44 have resulted in subpar performances at the plate. Smoak needs to make better contact and cut down on the strikeouts to last the year as the starter, but reportedly he will be the team's first baseman this year, at least initially. Smoak showed excellent plate discipline in the minors, so perhaps this is something he can improve on in time. With that however, the Mariners also brought in Mike Morse, Kendrys Morales, and Raul Ibanez this winter, so they have options should Smoak get off to a slow start.

Carl Crawford, OF, LAD -
Crawford is already taking batting practice, with reports saying that things appear to be set for an Opening Day return. Given the nature of the injury (Tommy John), Crawford may see a few more runners scoring from second on a single to left field in April than he will in August, but at the plate, this doesn't seem like it will impact him. Don't look for Crawford to return to elite OF status, but the change of scenery and the health should result in his at least being very useful. One disturbing trend to note is his BB% trend the past few years: 7.6%, 6.9%, 4.3%, and in an abbreviated 2012, 2.4%. He'll need to reverse that quickly or find himself batting in front of the pitcher rather than after him.

Stephen Drew, SS, BOS -
His brother had a respectable first four years in Boston, and now Stephen hits Beantown hoping to rebuild his value and cash next winter. Drew turns 30 in March, so in theory he's still in his prime and given his talent, we could see a bounceback season. Drew had an .810 OPS season as recently as 2010, and given how left-handed hitters can fare in Fenway Park, he appears to be in an ideal situation. He'll start over Jose Iglesias and serve as a placeholder for Xander Bogaerts should Bogaerts be able to stick at the position.

Leonys Martin, OF, TEX -
Any outfielder set to accumulate playing time in Texas is worth noting for fantasy owners. Martin hit an anemic .184/.262/.395 in 46 MLB at-bats last year, but he also hit .399/.422/.610 in Triple-A and is a guy with a $15.5 million contact that the Rangers want to extract some value from. Martin will battle Craig Gentry for playing time, but if Martin hits well this spring, he'll get the job most days, with Gentry mixing in against the occasional left-hander. Martin can run a bit and he has contact rates as high as 93% in his minor league stops, so watch him closely this spring.

J.J. Putz, RP, ARI -
We're starting to see the "best shape of his life" stories flow through already, with Putz reportedly coming to camp 15 pounds lighter after a new offseason diet. Putz has had back-to-back strong healthy seasons in Arizona with K/9's of 9.5 and 10.9 and BB/9's of 1.9 and 1.8. He also saw his GB% tick up a bit last year from 42.4% to 45.7%, and he added a cutter to his repertoire to mix things up. Putz is 36, but all signs point to another solid season, even if going on a diet has very little to do with whether a pitcher blows out his arm.

[stevenash]

The Pirates Outfield

So we know Andrew McCutchen is a fantasy beast. And then? Many are assuming that Starling Marte is going to start in LF and Travis Snyder in RF for the Bucs in 2013. While it sure looks as though they will begin the season there, I see significant risk with them. Starling Marte has become a bit of a fantasy darling, and while he does have potential five-tool talent and should continue to develop, I see his 2013 fantasy price as too high. He had a 27.5% K rate and 4.4% BB rate last year in 167 AB's in the show, numbers that are quite similar to what he put up in the minor leagues. If he slumps, he could even see his playing time cut or even be sent down for work on pitch recognition. And with Travis Snyder, you have a player who for either performance or injury reasons has never had more than 319 plate appearances in a season and a player who posted a .652 OPS in 50 games with the Bucs last year. So what does this mean? Jose Tabata could re-emerge out of the doghouse and into more playing time. Reports suggest he dropped 15 lbs in the offseason, admitted his mistakes to the front office, and is looking for redemption. After posting an .868 OPS in September, the 24-year-old is one to watch this spring and could be a sneaky add in deep leagues.

The Enigma That Is James McDonaldPitchers who slump in the second half normally raise concerns for the following year. And then there's James McDonald, who had the slumps of all slumps: his ERA went from a 2.37 to 7.52, his whip from .97 to 1.79, and his K/BB rate from over 3:1 to less than 1:5: 1 from before to after the all-star break. Reports coming out of camp suggest McDonald had physical issues (non-pitching arm issues) and confidence issues that intertwined to hamper him down the stretch. In looking at his game log, his downward spiral coincided with a spike in his pitch counts--the 120-pitch performance against Minnesota on June 21st stands out. With these health revelations and a #3 spot in the rotation secured (nice to have Francisco Liriano, Jonathan Sanchez, and Jeff Karstens in your rear view mirror) I see a potential bargain on draft day.

Pirates' Spring ImpressionsWith Francisco Liriano injured, Jonathan Sanchez being Jonathan Sanchez, Charlie Morton rehabbing, Jeff Locke an untested commodity, and Jeff Karstens slowed with a biceps tendinitis, the back end of the Pirates rotation is a bit murky for the early part of the year and beyond. But I have my eyes on two starters who could make a significant impact in fantasy this year: Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon. Cole is further advanced in the Pirates eyes and likely will get the first shot should the 4 and 5 spots not settle themselves by June. Cole pitched in three different levels in 2012, ascending all the way to AAA for a start. His 3:1 KK/BB ratio and 1.42 groundball/flyball ratio suggest he's ready for the show. And don't sleep on Taillon, who isn't far behind. Taillon pitched across two different levels, ascending to AA for three starts where he flat out dominated with a 18:1 KK/BB ratio after a 3:1 ratio in A ball. While still learning to use all of this pitches and improving his already solid 1.05 groundball/flyball rate, I see Taillon contributing this year as well. They'll be given a long look in camp, and if they impress, I wouldn't be surprised to see them in Pittsburgh by the all-star break.The Enigma That Is Peter BourjosAfter Torii Hunter and Kendrys Morales were shipped during the offseason, many around baseball looked for the Angels to give Peter Bourjos the starting CF job in 2013.

However, while he may be the early favorite, Mike Scioscia recently said that he may mix and match his outfield and that Bourjos isn't guaranteed full-time AB's and is only "in the mix". Even with ample playing time, Bourjos is a risky option. While his speed is definitely legit, Bourjos' "breakout" 2011 in the show included a 5.8% BB rate and a 22.5% K rate, numbers not too far off from his minor league days. While his career .293 minor league AVG suggests he could be an asset in that category, the friendly parks of the CAL league could have had something to do with that (a phenomenon I call "Californinflation"). His 2013 fantasy value will hinge upon how much he plays and where he bats in the lineup. How he progresses with impressing Mike Scioscia in the spring is crucial to shaping his value, and until his role is clarified, buyer beware.

Angels' Closer Battle: Frieri vs. Madson (and His Elbow)This is one of the most important pre-season battles with fantasy implications. With the Angels expected to win a bunch of games, there will be plenty of save chances to go around. News out of camp had Ryan Madson play catch from 50 feet on Wednesday without any reported setbacks, so it's conceivable if all breaks perfectly right that he could be the opening day closer. However, all indications out of LA (or is it Anaheim?) suggest Frieri to be the closer on opening day and through at least April.Frieri was 23 for 26 in save chances last year with a 2.32 ERA, a .98 WHIP, and a 13.36 K/9 rate. Those are sexy closer numbers indeed. However, the 4.09 BB/9 rate is still a concern moving forward and he'll have to continue shaving points from that number to keep the job. Ryan Madson dominated in 2011 as the Phillies closer, and the Angels' brass wants him to claim the closer role at some point in 2013 as his works his way back from TJ surgery. Fantasy owners will want to keep an eye on Frieri's control and Madson's health this spring as they evaluate their fantasy prospects. The smart money is on Frieri to begin the year as closer and Madson to take the reigns in May or June.

Shelby Miller (SP-STL). Miller was scratched from his side session on Wednesday after feeling discomfort in his right shoulder. This looks like it will push his spring debut back indefinitely so take a wait-and-see approach for the time being. It could turn out to be nothing but normal soreness or something more serious, so this is a situation worth monitoring, especially given the hype and commensurate price tag. Miller's mid-90's fastball and plus curve have led to a K/9 rate of over 10 in his minor league career, and his didn't disappoint during his cup of coffee last year with a 16:4 KK:BB ratio and only 2 ER's in 13 and 2/3 innings. He is still on track to break camp in the rotation and the spot previously vacated by Chris Carpenter is his...if he's healthy.

Phil Hughes (SP-NYY). After feeling discomfort in his back during team drills, Phil Hughes underwent an MRI. According to team doctors, the results show a bulging disk in the starter's upper-back and Hughes has been shut down for two weeks. This is troublesome news, as Hughes is carrying a lot of momentum from last year when he posted a 7.76 K/9 rate and a career best 2.16 BB/9 rate in 191+ innings thank in large part to the tutelage from Andy Pettite. However, the workload was also a career high, and Hughes has proven quite fragile during his career. His regular season status isn't impacted yet, but this definitely merits fantasy owners' attention. Besides the words "Dr. James Andrews", "back injury" ranks right up there with things you don't want to hear uttered next to your pitcher's name, as it could snowball into other problems.

Giancarlo Stanton (OF-MIA). Ouch! Giancarlo Stanton was plunked in the helmet by a Jose Fernandez fastball during a simulated game on Wednesday and has a bruise on the back of his neck. Preliminary tests came back clear, but he is undergoing further concussion tests after seeing "grayness and fuzziness" on the outside of his eyes. Three things could keep Stanton from earning his high fantasy price tag in 2013: his 2012 baggage to the tune of a 28.5 K% and his troublesome knee-injury, and the potentially woeful Marlins lineup limiting his run production (Juan Pierre and Placido Polanco are slated to bat 1-2...gulp!). While his power potential is immense, these concerns lead me to believe he is a bit overvalued in 2013. Maybe he should change his name back to Mike?

Lance Berkman (1B/DH-TEX). The veteran is day-to-day after feeling some discomfort in his right calf during a workout on Wednesday. Sadly, given his age (37) and recent health record (he played 32 games in 2012) this is likely going to be a common occurrence for sir Lance-a-lot this year. Plus, he's going to face constant competition for AB's, with Mike Moreland, Mike Olt, Leonys Martin, Chris Gentry, David Murphy, and Jurickson Profar all vying for playing time. If a few of these guys get hot and Berkman either gets cold with the bat or with his health, there could be a domino effect that eats at his fantasy value. There is no denying that when on the field the man can hit, as he posted an impressive .959 OPS in 2011 and an .825 OPS in limited time in 2012. However, while he is a nice late-round option in 5x5 and daily leagues, head-to-head players in weekly leagues beware.

Albert Pujols (1B-LAA). The Angels are taking a cautious approach with Pujols, who is coming off minor knee surgery in the fall. He's unlikely to play in games before mid-March, so while he's still on track to start on opening day, it isn't a slam-dunk. Pujols is going in the early-to-mid first round in many fantasy drafts, with owners expecting him to repeat his 2011 numbers. While he rebounded nicely after an abysmal start to 2012, his K% increased by 1.7% and his BB% decreased by 2.7% from the first to the second half. And while Josh Hamilton's presence will be a plus, I'd temper expectations just a bit, paying for something in between his 2011 and 2012 numbers.Martin Prado (3B-ARI). Prado says his left hand is feeling better after he was plunked earlier in the week. This looks like only a minor setback, and Prado is on track to be a major fantasy contributor this season. Fantasy owners are banking on the Chase Field bump, and with a park factor of 112 (as compared to Turner's Field's 97) why not? Prado was 15th in all of baseball in WAR last year, and with him being the focal point of Arizona, look for him to improve upon his 10 HR / 17 SB season from a year ago while maintaining a .300 AVG.

Everth Cabrera (SS-SD). Cabrera's name has surfaced in relation to the Biogenesis clinic PED scandal. This brings up a relatively new yet underrated question in fantasy: what do we do with players under suspicion, facing suspension, or who are suspended in connection with PED use? Players can be suspended without a failed drug test under MLB's drug testing policy, so any player named could theoretically take a games played (not to mention performance) hit. Cabrera did lead to national league in steals with 44 last year, but also hit .246 and struck out 110 times against 43 walks, making him a bit of a one-trick pony. With Jedd Gyorko's imminent ascension, the Padres could have a crowded infield. This news definitely doesn't help his cause.

Aaron Hicks (OF-MIN). According to multiple reports out of Minnesota, Ron Gardenhire has thrown Hicks' name into the mix for the starting centerfielder's job. Hicks, a former highly-touted prospect, had a breakout year last year in AA, hitting 13 HR's, with 32 SB's, a .286 AVG, and a respectable 79 BB to 116 K in 129 games. With an intense battle heating up between Hicks, Darin Mastroianni, and Joe Benson, Hicks appears to be catching the eye of the Twins' brass. If you miss out on Wil Myers, Hicks could be a nice consolation prize.

A.J. Burnett (SP-PIT). Burnett is scheduled to get the opening day nod for the first time in his 15-year career. The righty is coming off his best season since 2008, as he posted a stellar 16-10 record in 202+ innings to go with 8 K/9 rate and a surprisingly low 2.76 BB/9 rate in 2012. With his xFIP of 3.40 to go along with his ERA of 3.51 and a realistic BABIP of .294, Burnett appears to have settled in nicely in the Burgh. From where he's going in drafts, he could provide great value to fantasy owners in 2013.

Nick Markakis (OF-BAL). Markakis is getting tests done for acid reflux to make sure it isn't something serious like an ulcer. This appears to be nothing major, and Markakis is on track for opening day. He had a fairly disappointing 2012, as he was limited to 104 games. He still put up a solid .298 AVG, and he did see a small spike in his homerun rate with 13 in 420 AB's, but only stole 1 base. While a solid player to round out your outfield, Markakis' 2008 and 2009 seasons appear to be still in the minds of fantasy owners, keeping his value a bit above where it should be.Clay Buchholz (SP-BOS). Buchholz had a "very good BP session," yesterday according to John Farrel. The righty is working his way back from a hamstring issue that hampered him during the early part of camp. Another injury for Buchholz is something fantasy owners do not want to hear, as he's been plagued by a number of ailments thanks in large part to his violent delivery. He had a respectable 2012 campaign with a 4.56 ERA, but his 129 K and 64 BB numbers should alert owners that a repeat of 2010 is unlikely.

OF Austin Jackson Jackson improved his contact rate (80%) and EYE (from .31 to .50) which is a great sign for the 25 YO. His next transition will be his need to convert the 10.1 XBH% into more HRs. His SB skill set has suddenly eroded considerably, as his 80%+ rate dropped to a meager 57% last season....I suspect there might have been a injury that hasn't been discussed. Upward movement projected OF B.J. Upton BJ Upton finally had his breakout season in '12 at the age of 28. Still in his prime, but how realistic where his HR totals from a season ago? A 16.7% HR/FB ratio was considerably above his historical high and his 10.5 XBH rate does not support a 28 HR season. His 70% contact rate from last season, points to a hitter that's not likely to break 250 in BA, which hurts Runs Scored. OF Ben Revere Insane 92% contact rate with 4.61 GB/FB ratio makes him a legit .280 - .290+ hitter (weakness of bat speed keeps him from being 300+). His greatest asset for fantasy purposes is his 80%+ SB success rate (40 of 49 last season). 333 OBP keeps him in the lineup as an everyday player. OF Bobby Abreu Near tail end of his career as he approaches 40. OF Brennan Boesch Deteriorating EYE (.25), drop in XBH% 9.8 to 7.7, and struggles verses RHP really leaves Boesch at risk with regards to playing time. OF Brett Gardner 90% contact rate with a predominately GB/FB ratio of 1.5 makes him a legit 350 OBP player...which assures everyday play for a hitter without power. Of course his major contribution is SBs, and he should bounce back up to 40+ steals in '13...with 85-90 RS depending on playing time (which is conservative). OF Brett Jackson Jackson appears ready, both defensively, where his is a rare, true, centerfielder who also presents some substantial power along with his speed skills, and offensively where he provides the alluring speed and power combination of skills. Brett’s zone command has been solid throughout his pro career and he’s handled level jumps well indicating that he’s more than a collection of physical skills, he’s also seeing the board well. Brett comfortably projects to a 20/20 player and seems capable of posting a 30/30 at the high end (later in his career). He’s not likely to post great BA’s (30% K rate) and that, combined with his power potential means that he’s not likely to land in a speed lineup position. OF Brian Bogusevic Only a 75% contact rate, without significant power keeps him at bay from everyday playing time. Legit 20-30 SB guy with regular PT. OF Bryan LaHair Could easily hit 30 HRs in a season, but 32% K rate leaves him out of the lineup more often than in. His .256 BA was actually lucky based on a .295 singles percentage. Upside would be a platoon scenario, as he was dominate by LHP last year (.125 SLG). OF Bryce Harper What can we said that hasn't been said. Amazing talent that was overshadowed by only Mike Trout last season. His 22/59/.270 line in 139 games was an amazing rookie season. His 16% HR/FB rate is underinflated based on his avg HR Distance (413) / batted ball speed (106). His contact rate is going to need to improve (72%) as will his ability to hit LHP (412 slg) in order to be more than a 270 hitter....but all in due time for a 20 YO. OF Cameron Maybin Maybin got off to a slow start with his BA but came on strong in the 2H (.283). XBH rate fell to 6.5% but rebounded in the 2nd H (8.1). The GB/FB ratio is close to 2 to 1, so there isn't a high probability that he'll hit 20 anytime soon. We should see a pickup in SBs to his 2011 levels, as his success rate is still respectable. OF Carl Crawford At only 31, he's still young enough to rebound from his injury marred 2012 campaign. Will score a lot of runs in front of Kemp,Gonzalez,Ramirez. OF Carlos Beltran Numbers were bloated thanks to a big 1st half (20 HR/61 RBI). At 36, expect a regression in the HR/RBI/RS department. OF Carlos Gomez Solid 10.1 XBH%, with 15% HR/FB rate translated to more HRs in 2012. His poor contact rate (76%) and EYE (.20) continues to leave him at risk to hit above .250. His best gift to fantasy is his SB (29 for 32 in 2nd H). With everyday role that will make him a commodity in the fantasy arena this preseason. OF Carlos Gonzalez Elevated BHIP once again gives us a misrepresentation on BA, but his HR/FB rate is sure to rise again in '13. RS% under represented...we're once again buying in.

[stevenash]

Toronto Blue Jays
What to expect from new additions?
Jose Reyes SS (TOR) - The Blue Jays certainly made a splash this offseason, highlighted by their acquisition of Jose Reyes from Miami. Reyes is not the 60+ SB threat he once was as he has become more cognizant of his health and picks and chooses his spots to run now. The good news is he stayed healthy all of last year, appearing in 160 games. Another positive is Reyes has upped his contact rate the past two years, posting elite marks of 93% and 92.8% to go along with EYE's over 1. Those figures combined with two straight years of a 21+ LD rate make Reyes a legit .300 hitter. Sure, Reyes hit just .287 last year, but that was mostly due to an unlucky .236 singles average. That mark was his worst of the last 4 years and easily below his previous 3 year average of .262. Look for Reyes to hit around .300 this year with similar HR-SB numbers but an uptick in RS and RBI's due to a much better surrounding lineup. It's also possible we see a rise in HR-SB numbers due to a better offensive environment and more SB opportunities (assuming the singles average corrects itself Reyes will be on first base more often). Fantistics projects Reyes to hit .298 with 11 HR, 42 SB, 96 RS and 62 RBI's.

Josh Johnson SP (TOR) - Along with Jose Reyes, the Blue Jays also received ace Josh Johnson in their trade with Miami. As exciting as the prospect of the Jays adding a frontline starter is to fans such as myself, there are definitely reasons to be cautious when evaluating Johnson. First of all, Johnson is extremely injury prone. Since his rookie year in 2006, Johnson has eclipsed 200 innings just one time (2009). He has averaged just 129 innings over this span, failing to reach even 100 innings on 3 separate occasions. Usually Johnson is a nice risk-reward play, but even the performance of late raises some flags. His K% has dropped each of the past 2 seasons from 25% to 23.9% and then again down to 20.7% (his worst mark since his rookie year). Johnson also gave up a whopping 23.4 LD% to opposing hitters last year. I do think skill wise Johnson regresses towards his better career marks in terms of his K rate, but his ratios may remain more solid than elite as he makes the move to the AL East. In the past I'd be willing to spend a top 10 round pick on Johnson as his elite numbers when healthy equaled out the risk of him not pitching significant innings. This year, with the numbers when healthy shifting from elite to average, I'm not willing to draft Johnson inside the top 150 picks of a draft. Please note that I'm more bearish than the projections software, which gives good reasons to buy low on Johnson (in particular his win total should see a significant bump based on his expected win total from last year).

Tampa Bay Rays
Rookie of the Year Candidate
Wil Myers OF (TB) - In one of the big offseason trades, the Tampa Bay Rays landed top prospect Wil Myers for James Shields. Last year, in his first season of AAA at the ripe age of 21, Myers posted an impressive triple slash of .304/.378/.554. Prior to being called up to AAA, he spent 35 games at AA where he laughably slugged .739. Myers' combination of power and patience is what has scouts drooling as he posted double digit walk rates in both AA and AAA. In fact, he has never not posted a double digit walk rate at any minor league stop. Myers also hit 37 homeruns in under 600 plate appearances. Myers is not a big stolen base threat (should give you 5-10 steals) and did strike out more than 20% of the time which will make it tough for him to hit for a high average. However, that power and patience combo should have him contributing in RS-RBI-HR right out of the gate. The Fantistics projection for Myers is .268 with 22 HR, 8 SB, 66 RS and 71 RBI's. Please note that that projection is with the expectation of 455 at bats. Myers will likely begin the season at AAA. There's no doubt that with health he will be with the big club sooner rather than later, but the exact timetable for that is up in the air.
Breakout Candidate

Desmond Jennings OF (TB) - Those who spent an early round pick on Desmond Jennings last year had to be disappointed with his final fantasy stats: .246, 13 HR, 85 RS, 47 RBI's and 31 steals. Despite the disappointing campaign, I am very high on a Jennings' breakout this season. From a power perspective, there is a lot of room for growth here. Jennings' loft increased significantly, seeing his GB/FB ratio drop from 1.34 to 1.10 as his LD% increased by 2.5 percentage points and his FB rate by 2.8 percentage points. So, he elevated the ball more and made harder contact, yet his ISO dropped nearly 50 points and AB/HR rose from 24.7 to 38.8? That screams opportunity to me as does potential growth in his stolen base totals; Jennings remarkably swiped 31 bags while getting caught just twice (94% success rate). It would not be surprising to see him get more opportunities to steal this year as a result of that percentage. I would not be doing my jobif I did not point out that there are risks in drafting Jennings. His EYE dropped from a decent enough .53 to .38, which is in the danger area for some hitters. This was the result of chasing more pitches outside of the strike zone. Also, while the increased loft is a good thing long term, Jennings did post an IFFB rate almost double the previous year's mark (18.1%), which partially helps to explain why the power fell despite some growth in power indicators. Still, given Jennings' age (26), getting another year under his belt and showing good growth potential in both power and speed leads me to believe that there is more upside than downside if you are drafting Jennings at his current ADP of 81.

Kansas City Royals
Post-Hype Sleeper
Eric Hosmer 1B (KC) - I was a little wary of the hype train on Eric Hosmer last year and wrote about concerns over his high GB rate. It was one of the few times I was right as Hosmer's GB/FB ratio actually rose from 1.57 to 1.92, which is near death for a power hitter. Still, I think there's value where Hosmer is being selected this year. One of my favorite types of value draft picks is the post-hype sleeper. Sometimes we forget something simple: hitting a baseball is really, really hard, and it might take even a top prospect with a little Major League experience an adjustment period. So, I'm chalking Hosmer's sophomore slump up to an adjustment period. Keep in mind that his biggest weakness (a lack of loft) is something that players, particularly young power hitters, tend to improve on as they mature. Hosmer is only 23 YO. This reminds me of the value Jason Heyward provided last year. At a similar point in his development (entering age 22 season, third year, coming off GB rates of 55.1% and 53.9%) Heyward saw his GB% drop all the way down to 44% and all of a sudden he's a top 3-round pick this year. I don't know if Hosmer will be able to improve his loft that quickly, but I would bet on a 20-25 homer season. Also, you should keep in mind some positives from 2012. Hosmer's BB% grew from a low 6% mark to a respectable 9.4% mark, helping to eliminate one of the concerns I had with him heading into last year. This was the result of him chasing pitches at a lower clip than the previous year. He also stole 16 bases which is both really good for a 1B and somewhat remarkable given his .304 OBP (limited opportunities). Look for Hosmer to offer a really good return on where he is being drafted. In an early draft this year, I nabbed him with the 103rd pick in the draft. This is a guy with 20/20 potential who Keith Law had as a dark horse MVP candidate heading into last season. Overlook the rough sophomore season and do cartwheels if you are able to grab him around pick 100.


Change of Scenery for Big Game James
James Shields SP (KC) - We looked at one end of the Myers-Shields trade, now let's evaluate what Kansas City got from a fantasy perspective. Shields is coming off of a solid season, winning 15 games to go along with 223 K's, a 3.52 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. While the ERA grew .7 points, Shields was more or less the same pitcher as he was the year before posting a 3.24 xFIP (3.25 in 2011). He is a near fantasy ace due to his low WHIP's and solid ERA's, and his consistency in counting stats (31 wins the past 2 years, 448 K's). One of Shields' strongest assets is his durability. He has thrown over 200 innings in 6 consecutive seasons, averaging a whopping 222 IP over that span. How does the shift to Kansas City change things for Shields? Well, the first instinct fans probably have is he will win fewer games. While this is likely true, I wouldn't focus on it as wins are really tough to predict. More important is the ballpark and division Shields is going to. By far Shields' biggest weakness is his proneness to the HR ball (should note that his GB% was a career high 52.3% last year, making this less of a concern as in previous years). For his career, his ERA is .3 points higher than his xFIP as a result of a higher than normal HR/FB rate of 11.8%. According to Fangraphs Park Factors, the Royals' home park ranks as the third toughest place to hit a HR compared to the number 12 ranking for the Rays' home park. Furthermore, of the ten easiest places to hit a HR, 3 are AL East ballparks compared to just 1 AL Central park. It's also no secret that the offenses in the AL Central are not at the same level as the offenses of the AL East. The one negative about moving to KC from TB, though, is a less talented defense, which might cost Shields a little bit of WHIP. All in all, Shields is an extremely consistent pitcher whose biggest weakness (the HR ball) is being erased with his improved GB rate and change in environment. We have him as a top 15 fantasy pitcher this year, projected to throw 226 innings with 15 wins, 227 K's, a 3.50 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.
Around the League

John Jaso C (OAK) - For deeper 2-catcher leagues, I think Jaso has the potential to provide really solid value. He might just be a platoon bat, but as a lefty against righty that will give him more at bats. Also, he should put up solid across the board numbers when he does play. Believe it or not but only Carlos Ruiz (.404) had a better wOBA than Jaso (.401) against RHP amongst catchers with at least 300 plate appearances. Jaso had an outstanding EYE last season (1.10) which is in line with his career mark and consistently gets on base thanks to his elite 15.5 BB%. Those skills coupled with Jaso's high 25.4 LD rate and improving HR/FB rate (6.1 to 14.3% last year, may regress some this year) give him a high floor for a second catcher. He also runs well for a catcher as evidenced by his 5 steals in 5 attempts last year. With Jaso, you are getting high end production when he's in the lineup against RHP. That makes him a valuable commodity as a second C if you are able to platoon him with someone else. On top of that his skill set gives him a high floor, and if platoon mate Derek Norris struggles mightily (which is possible given his K rate), there's upside in the playing time department. To recap: high floor, well balanced, platoon ability, and upside. Jaso isn't an elite talent, but those are the type of qualities that make Jaso a steal at his current ADP of round 27 (15 team league).


Jason Heyward OF (ATL) - Jason Heyward is coming off of a breakout season. As I mentioned in my Hosmer write up, much of that breakout can be attributed to Heyward achieving more loft and thus allowing himself much greater power numbers. After 2 seasons of killing worms (GB rates of 55.1% and 53.9%), Heyward lowered his GB rate all the way down to 44% and not surprisingly set career highs in both LD and FB rate. Another important aspect of Heyward's game was reducing his IFFB% from 21.8% to 8.1%. Most likely the former improvement was the result of a maturing Heyward entering his prime years, and the latter improvement the result of his shoulder being healthy. Heyward did sacrifice some of his plate discipline in order for more power, posting a career worst .38 EYE (.71 and .55 the previous 2 seasons). Given Heyward's large walk rates from 2009-2011 and his reputation for pitch recognition, I think there's a chance Heyward keeps the power but has his plate discipline bounce back a little bit. The result of this for Heyward would be some average upside, and our projections software recognizes this calling for a .277 BA (an 8 point improvement from 2012).


Felix Hernandez SP (SEA) - I'll admit it: I'm concerned over a SP who has an average ERA of 2.82 over the last four seasons. As much as I want to say - don't worry, it's Felix, a drop in velocity from 95.6 mph in 2007 to 92.1 in 2012 is a big deal. Even though the Mariners denied off-season rumors about Felix having some elbow issues, it's just another red flag. Despite the drop in velocity, Felix still had elite skills last year: 2.84 FIP, 3.98 K/BB ratio (a career best). I don't expect him to fall off the map and be terrible, and chances are he will still be really good. I just don't see the value in taking a guy who is going to cost you either a really early draft pick or a lot of auction dollars when there's concern over his health and velocity. Why not take a guy who projects to have similar numbers, doesn't have the same risk and won't cost you as high of a price (Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke all come to mind)? The Fantistics projection for Felix is 222 IP with 14 wins, 208 K's, a 3.46 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, which does not warrant his current ADP selection of 20th overall.


Devin Mesoraco C (CIN) - I am concerned about Mesoraco's playing time this season. Last year Ryan Hanigan posted a .283 wOBA against RHP, which when compared to Mesoraco's .256 mark actually seems okay. Mesoraco's inability to hit RHP just gives Dusty Baker one more excuse to not play a young player, which he is notorious for doing. And in Dusty's defense Mesoraco hit .212/.288/.352 in 184 plate appearances last season, which isn't exactly exciting. Mesoraco still projects to develop into a solid hitting catcher, but his inability to hit RHP and lack of projected playing time has me drafting him as nothing more than an end round flier in two catcher leagues.


Corey Hart OF (MIL)- Keep an eye on Corey Hart in drafts as it appears his timetable for returning from offseason knee injury has shrunk. Hart was originally expected to miss possibly half the season and now according to himself is aiming at an April 20th return. While players are generally overly optimistic, even a mid-May return may provide fantasy owners with added value if the rest of the league is overly cautious with drafting hurt players. Hart as developed into a consistent power threat the past 3 seasons, posting ISO's of .242/.226/.237. He has also hit an average of 29 homers a season over that span.


Rafael Furcal SS (STL) - Furcal got off to a hot start last season but battled regression and health most of the way. Unfortunately it sounds like he will start off 2013 continuing to battle his health. Furcal stated that his elbow is still hurting him a lot; he is rehabbing a torn UCL in his throwing elbow. Given this injury situation and Furcal's past (average of 397 AB's the last 3 seasons), don't draft him anticipating anything more than the 429 at bats our projections software is calling for.
Roberto Hernandez SP (TB) - Hernandez (known to most as Fausto Carmona) has a chance to win a spot in the Rays' rotation. I'm skeptical of Hernandez having much fantasy value even if he does earn a spot. He only pitched about 40 total professional innings last year. His career ERA is 4.64, and his career K% of 13.7% is about 5-6 points below the Major League average. I think there are better late round SP lottery tickets than Hernandez who has a low ceiling and a low chance of achieving it anyways.


Brett Gardner OF (NYY) - Gardner might be undervalued on draft day after missing almost the entire 2012 season due to injury. Gardner's on base skills (career 11 BB%, .355 OBP) make him a safe bet to score a lot of runs in the Yankee offense and also provides him with plenty of opportunities to show off his speed (47 and 49 steals respectively in his last 2 full seasons). Gardner has very low chase and swinging strike rates for his career, which gives him contact rate upside. It has been around 85% over his last 3 healthy seasons, so if he can inch that near 90% there's a good chance he will hit for a higher average than his career mark of .266.

P Dan Haren Haren heads back to NL (WAS), where the fly ball pitcher will benefit from playing in a bigger ballpark. Of bigger concern was the drop in fastball velocity last season (88.5 verses 90.5). How much can be attributed to his back issues? P Daniel Hudson Hudson is recovering from TJS, and is likely to miss the start of the season...possibly not be at full tilt till the 2nd half of 2013. P Danny Duffy TJS last June, might be ready by mid season. P David Phelps Phelps looked great in limited action last season, but what he displayed last year wasn't what we saw from him in AAA from (2010-2012). This is not to say that he can't be a good MLB pitcher, rather we shouldn't count on a sub 1.20 WHIP with low 3s ERA. Negatives to consider were his lucky BABIP (.252) and struggles against LHP (468 SLG). P David Price Stellar season 20 Wins/ 2.48 ERA/ 1.06 WHIP. Expected Wins may have been a little inflated 20 instead of 17 expected. Strand Rate was elevated at 80% and will be difficult to replicate. Lots of good years ahead, but a slight downturn expected. P Derek Holland Big reduction in WHIP was heavily attributed to his lucky .259 BABIP, yet his ERA was skewed because of his poor Strand Rate. Projected to have a better ERA, but worse WHIP in '13 P Doug Fister Deserved more Wins last season (12), solid ,85 K/I with a 50% GB rate. Improved his swing and miss rate by 5% last season and it should be sustainable if he can repeat GB success verses RH. P Drew Hutchison TJS in August 2012, could make a return in September. P Drew Pomeranz Drew’s bread and butter is a terrific curveball. His fastball has shown low-to-mid 90s at points last season but so far in the majors he’s been averaging just under 91. The 6-5/230 left-hander looked nearly MLB-ready when drafted and once developed, Drew projects to be a solid and effective starter in the Jon Lester mold. P Drew Smyly Drew’s velocity tops at about 93-94 when he needs it but he works mostly within 3 or 4 mph of 90. What makes that velocity play up however is his strong command and willingness to work both sides of the plate. He identifies and hits his spots well. Drew backs his fastball with a curve, slider and change. All are pretty good, and his curve shows some plus potential when it’s not blurring the line between itself and his slider. His change already has good depth and arm movement, and he can show variation of velocity and movement on his fastball and curve to make it seem as if he has more than four pitches. P Dylan Bundy Dylan Bundy has been called by some the best prospect to come out of high school ... you know .. ever. High praise, but you’ll be hard pressed to find anyone who encountered him in Low-A this spring (where he threw 30 scoreless innings in 8 appearances, striking out 12/9 while allowing just 5 hits and 2 walks) who would strongly disagree . Bundy was the 4th overall pick in 2011, instantly becoming the O’s top prospect and the holder of the largest contract handed to a draftee in franchise history. P Edinson Volquez Volquez struggled in the 2nd half going 1.53 WHIP/4.81 ERA...but that was largely due to a bad 5 game stretch when he gave up 21 runs in just over 12 innings. Still 2012 was a success considering how poorly he pitched in 2011. There is risk, but he has the ability to see more upside. P Edwin Jackson Strong 1st half 1.13 WHIP/3.57 ERA before 2nd half fallout 1.33 WHIP/4.52 ERA. XERA says ERA should have been 36 points lower...and that's mainly due to a poor strand rate...both should rebound.

[Otters27]

Definitely liking carlos gonzales this year

[Shortstop]

I think a lot of people are overreacting to the Mike Trout weight issue.

Big deal that he put on some pounds, he'll lose it during Spring Training.

[stevenash]

What to expect from the Newcomers for LAA


The Angels made a big splash in Free Agency once again this offseason, landing a few big names such asJosh Hamilton, and Tommy Hanson, as well as solid end of the rotation guys likeJoe Blanton andJason Vargas. Although Hamilton is now hitting in the 25th best HR hitting park, as opposed to the 7th ranked, don't expect a dramatic slip in numbers. Hamilton moves to RF, taking somewhat of a defensive load off of his back. Additionally, he stayed in division, keeping him familiar with the pitchers and the ball parks. With an ADP putting him 4th among position players on our draft board, he has high expectations, but considering he has a lot of protection around him and a team primed for a deep postseason push, he should live up to the first-round hype. Hanson is coming off another lackluster season, posting an ERA of 4.48, the worst of his career. A reported 3mph drop in velocity draws even more concern that his shoulder isn't healthy. In the AL West, he may be able to hush some of his critics, but expect another roller coaster season for Hanson as he will have to work through his drop in velocity and working with new teammates, Chris Iannetta and Hank Conger.

Can Iannetta be "the guy" for Mike Scioscia?

Catcher situations are always a headache for fantasy baseball owners. Whether it be a platoon or mid-season fatigue, there seems to always be an issue. The question of significance here is whether it is worth it to take a flyer on a guy like Chris Iannetta to fill your catcher slot? Will he get enough at-bats to make an impact? After never really finding his groove in Colorado, Iannetta came to the Angels last year and performed as anticipated, mediocre. But after being awarded a 3-year extension on his contract, expect a motivated Iannetta coming out of the gate. At age 29, he will be desperate to prove he can start consistently in this league, and with so much star power around him, there will be plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. The once highly-touted backstop isn't even ranked top 30 among catchers, so he will slip through the woodworks in most drafts. If you are looking for a late round steal at catcher, Iannetta could fit the bill. Follow him closely this spring training to see how he meshes with the pitchers as well.

Can Matt Harvey and Travis D'Arnaud make fans forget?

After the Mets traded Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey for No. 3 MLB prospectTravis D'Arnaud, they added to the already young core they are slowly starting to build in Flushing. D'Arnaud isn't projected to start the season on the big league roster, but it isn't unrealistic to think he'll be a May or June call up, similar to what the Angels did with Mike Trout last year. D'Arnaud has an MLB-ready bat and should jump right into the starters role upon his arrival. He shouldn't be drafted considering we don't know exactly how long he will stay in the minors, but he is definitely a guy to jump on once he gets called up. As for Matt Harvey, he has a rotation spot locked up already and even though his sample size is small (10 starts in 2012), his strikeout totals (70 Ks in 59 IP) and 2.73 ERA more than backup the argument for him to be drafted in the 12th-15th round range.

Terry Collins' Outfield Situation

To be honest, its hard to find an outfield with as little credentials and MLB experience as the bunch the Mets will throw out there in 2013. Kirk Nieuwenhuis (104th ranked OF), Mike Baxter (114th), and Lucas Duda (77th) are the preseason favorites to start, but considering the youth and inexperience, expect Collin Cowgill (184th), Andrew Brown (155th) and veteran Marlon Byrd (147th) to have their chances to steal a spot during Spring Training. Duda has the most upside of the bunch, hitting 15 HR in 2012, but with a K/AB ratio above 25 percent, he isn't someone I would want to consistently rely on to produce. In short, the outfield is a train wreck and it would be smart to stay away from any Mets outfielders in this years draft.

Why you Should Avoid Scott Diamond

Diamond put together a solid 2012 campaign, finishing with a 3.54 ERA and 12 wins in 27 starts. He was a welcome addition to any fantasy team, especially as a mid-season pickup. But there are some red flags that should be raised before you go back and scoop him up in 2013. His walks were low (31), which masked the fact that he had a BAA of .274. He also gave up more than a hit per inning, which doesn't usually add up to a stellar season, so expect that ERA to sit around 4.20 if he pitches similarly this season. Also, Diamond surrendered 17 long balls in his 27 appearances, a staggering rate for a pitcher with as much success as Diamond had last season. Fantistics projects Diamond as the 160th ranked pitcher, which is enough of an argument in itself to stay away.

The Enigma that is Trevor Plouffe

Its hard to fathom how a player can go from being completely inept at the plate to hitting 11 home runs in one month, but Plouffe (28th ranked 3B) pulled it off. With no real threat behind him, Plouffe has the starting 3B job, but considering there were three separate months where Plouffe hit under .200 last season, nothing is certain with the 26-year old California native. Its hard to see Plouffe as more than a mid-season pickup, but he could prove valuable if you can scoop him in midst of one of his home run barrages. Don't consider drafting him unless your league is very deep, but do keep an eye out because he is capable of carrying your team for weeks at a time if this pattern keeps up.
Santana, Johan - NYN/P: Santana was scratched from his spring training debut, but the Mets claim that the southpaw, now 33-years of age, is in perfect health. Johan hasn't pitched a full season since 2008, and after last season being easily his worst of his career (despite the no-hitter), as well as the season-ending injury, there is concern that the Mets may be hiding something about their prized lefty. More information to come, but for now proceed with caution if looking to draft Santana. - plombardo

Hart, Corey - Mil/OF: After going through surgery about a month ago to repair a torn meniscus in his knee, Corey Hart is already eyeing his return to the diamond. The veteran Brewers outfielder is coming off his third straight season of 25+ HR and is slated to start once again in RF for Milwaukee. After his MRI in two weeks, as long as he is cleared by doctors he will start his rehab assignment. If all goes well with that, a late-april return his club seems to be most likely. - plombardo

Rivera, Mariano - NYA/RP: Mariano Rivera pitched to live hitting for the first time since blowing out his ACL shagging fly balls 10 months ago. He is just six saves from being the all-time leader in that category. Even at 43-years of age and coming off a horrific knee injury, Rivera is still a top ten reliever in the fantasy world. As long as the Yankees win games and he comes back even three quarters of who he was, he will be effective. - plombardo

Fielder, Prince - Det/1B: Fielder was slightly less than himself in 2012, driving in just over 100 runs and hitting just 30 HR, but he did set a career high, hitting .313. The decrease in RBI was expected with Fielder hitting behind the Triple Crown winner, Miguel Cabrera, but with a season in Detroit under his belt (and a big belt at that), he will improve his power numbers. Prince is ranked 4th among first baseman, so expect him to go in the late 2nd, early 3rd round, just a tad later than his value last year. Also promising is the fact that Fielder struck out less than 100 times for the first time in his career (barring his rookie year where he played just 39 games). And with Miggy more dominant than ever, it can only help Fielder's value . - plombardo

Rosario, Wilin - Col/C: Rosario was a bit of a fantasy godsend last year, giving plenty of owners a catcher to pick up and start mid-season. Finishing with an impressive line of .270/28 HR/71 RBI, Rosario ranked first among MLB catchers in long balls. Those homers were in less than 400 AB, so imagine the production that will come this season when he gets even more opportunities. Rosario isn't much of a sleeper (ranked 7th among catchers by Fantistics), but he is a guy that people will shy away from because he isn't a household name. Jump on this man, he is primed for a big year. - plombardo

Darvish, Yu - Tex/P: It's easy to think that Yu Darvish is set to make some progress in 2013. His stuff is electrifying, but his ceiling in Texas is only so high with how much of a hitters park the Ballpark at Arlington is. Fantistics projects Darvish to have a 3.27 ERA along with 232 K, ranking him as the 11th best pitcher. This may not be far off, but with Texas' mojo cooling off now that Hamilton left and teams having more of a sample-size, a stalemate, even a slight regression from last season isn't completely ridiculous. His 89 walks last season was more than double what he averaged in Japan. Even with the concerns, he is still well worthy of going off the board in the first five rounds because the risk is well worth what the reward could be. - plombardo

Hill, Aaron - Ari/2B: Another player who seems to randomly put together very admirable seasons, Aaron Hill hushed fantasy doubters last season with his explosion in the second half of 2012. After hitting just 5 HR and driving in just 18 runs in the first two months, Hill went "beastmode", batting .370 in June with 6 HR and 20 RBI. For a second baseman, Hill was as well rounded as it gets (14 SB, 93 runs, 85 RBI), making him a very attractive fantasy option this season, but heed my warning. Last time Hill put together a season like this, he followed it up by batting .205 with an OBP of .271. It's easy to jump on the bandwagon when you see last years numbers, but beware of the inconsistencies. - plombardo

Upton, Justin - Atl/OF: Many people were expecting a breakout season out of Upton in 2012. After another 17 HR, under 70-RBI season, people are wondering what to really expect out of the 25-year old outfielder. But the Braves decided to bring in him, and his enigmatic brother B.J. This can either end beautifully or dreadfully for Atlanta as the potential for greatness is there, but we just haven't seen it. Upton did have a thumb injury early last season that could have effected him throughout 2012. A change of scenery to a more hitter-friendly division, and him reuniting with his brother both bode well for Upton. Fantistics projects Upton as the 11th best outfielder, and justifiably so as the stars seem to be aligning for Justin to finally have a big year. - plombardo

Hardy, J.J. - Bal/SS: After rumors surfacing of Baltimore trying to move Hardy this offseason, its hard to say where the 30-year old shortstop's head is at coming into 2013. Last season was a bit of a head-scratcher for Hardy, as he did score 85 runs, but he batted just .238 and had an OBP of just .282, which makes his 85 runs scored seem of more coincidence than skill. Hardy is ranked 18th by Fantistics among shortstops, which is fair considering his decent power and ability to heat up for months at a time. Stay away unless he falls to the late rounds. - plombardo

Davis, Ike - NYN/1B: After a 2012 that saw Davis get off to a historically bad start (.154 BA through May), the 25-year old has a lot to prove coming into the new year. After suffering from valley fever early in '12, expect Ike to bust out of the gates in '13. In the final 2/3 of the 2012 season, Davis hit 27 HR while batting a respectable .257. He isn't a top 5 or maybe even top 10 first baseman, but he has 35+HR potential and the ability to drive in 100+ runs if he stays healthy and consistent throughout the year. Fantistics has him ranked 25th among first basemen, behind guys like Kevin Youkilis and Logan Morrison, but his upside alone should propel him into the top 15 options at his position. - plombardo

3B Manny Machado Manny is good. A definite top-15 prospect, top-10 on many lists, the barely 20-year-old was the 3rd pick overall in 2010 behind Bryce Harper and Jameson Taillon. He’s the power/speed combo that we all seek and he’s shown a strong ability to make contact and control his strike zone at a tender age, while playing younger than the normal age/level curve ... It’s all good. He has quick hands and already generates power and back spin, and I have to keep reminding myself (and you) he’s only 20. Manny can easily add some muscle and maturity on his 6-3/185 frame, although that may be a double edged trade off in terms of his speed game and more importantly his position qualification. 3B Michael Young Steady erosion of power numbers (6.2% XBH and .37 PW%), but this is normal regression for a 36 YO. Also will be moving out of very favorable park/team this season. 3B Miguel Cabrera Best overall fantasy production over the last 4 years. Still relatively young (30), and one of the safest options in fantasy. Stellar 13.5 XBH% with .60 Power Rate. 3B Mike Moustakas Is blossoming nicely at only 24. Concerns include contact rate (78%) and extreme fly ball rate (.70), which will continue to hurt his BA. There is room for improvement in his HR/FB rate (only 9%), this along with a solid 397 HR distance and 102 bat speed are a good indication that we'll see Moustakas develop into a 30HR hitter sooner rather than later. 3B Mike Olt The 49th overall pick in the 2010 draft ravaged AA last year (.288/.398/.579) with 28 HRs in 354 ABs. He fanned like a slugger (24%) and was the beneficiary of a favorable .327 BHIP. He also walked 14% of the time. A third baseman by trade, Mike is blocked by Adrian Beltre so he’ll be mostly limited to DH/1B and occasional RF duty. Mike is a talented slugger and will be a fantasy contributor in the long term. But we haven’t had the AAA stint we need to determine how much his weaknesses are going to be exposed at the major league level. We do have concerns about the entirety of his skill set ... but he will hit some homers. 3B Pablo Sandoval The on again off again Panda, looked like the 2010 version in 2012, as his production fell across the board (12.2 XBH% to 9.8). However there is reason for optimism if he can maintain himself physically (hamate fracture and hammy issues last season) as his EYE is stable. Has plenty of upside (30/90), but you just can't pay for all that on draft day. 3B Pedro Alvarez Finally had his breakout season in '12 with 30HR/85 RBI. 70% contact rate/.32 EYE continues to plague his BA and RS potential. At only 26, his potential is still upward if he can start slugging LHP at a clip better than .387. However his HR/FB rate was a very inflated 25% in '12, which tempers our upside in the HR department. 3B Placido Polanco Struggled on the road last season, slugging 120 points less. At 37, there is very little fantasy upside. 3B Ryan Wheeler Ryan has quick wrists, he’s balanced well, and he projects with average power for a CI. His zone control is solid and he will hit for a solid average in the long run. The main question with Ryan is whether he can stick at third base. His range and hands are sub-par but with Paul Goldschmidt ensconced at first base that’s where his opportunity is with Arizona. 3B Ryan Zimmerman Monster 2nd Half (20/64/.319) with super elite 13.5 XBH%. BA could rise due to unlucky BHIP, but with Zimmerman the question mark has always been health, not talent. His Shoulder is still on the mend this preseason. 3B Scott Moore Has a good XBH (10%) and good PW rates (.45)...but it comes at a price. Moore is a heavy Fly ball hitter(.60 GB/FB rate), with a poor contact rate (.75)...which makes him at risk to hit above .250. He has the potential to hit 20+, but there's not much else there. 3B Scott Rolen Not much left at 38, EYE saw a big drop in '12 from .66 to .48. However overall PW% is still respectable at .39. 3B Todd Frazier Solid 12.1 XBH% , but underrepresented in RS%. Has solid splits (LHP/RHP), only concern is his poor EYE (.35). 3B Trevor Plouffe Strong production against LHP (582 slg), but rather pedestrian against RHP (410 slg). Big swing in HRs last season (24), but his 17% HR/FB rate is not sustainable with a average distance (391) and bat/ball speed (101). Entering peak years but we don't expect his HRs to exceed the teens in '13. 3B Will Middlebrooks Will is big, strong, and athletic....but his HR rate from 2012 might be a overstated. His HR/FB rate of 20% is on the right side of the bell curve typically reserved for hitters that average above 400 ft on HRs with a batted ball speed above 105. Middlebrooks average distance was 390 with 103, while very good...his HR/FB rate should be closer to 15. Hence a drop in the HR rate expected. His BA is inflated thanks to a lucky .286 singles rate. With a 76% contact rate he'll likely be in the 260-270 range. On the positive side he was as effective against LHP as he was with RHP (.556/486 SLG).

[Cross]

Now I don't need a magazine to prepare for MLB draft, thanks much!

[stevenash]

Now I don't need a magazine to prepare for MLB draft, thanks much!

I used to buy Athon's, Mazeroski's, and Sporting News annual every year, don't need to anymore, all the data is online these days.

[Mitchell88]

yea I used to get Athons myself but not anymore no need for it

[dynamite140]

The Giants will again be overlooked.

[815Sox]

Tyler flowers is a good look. I could see him having a good year

Very likely going to be feast of famine with him. When hitting well he can just crush it. Defensively he has improved big time. He will be catching for a very good staff.

Speaking of, if John Danks stays healthy he could have a very good year. I'd imagine he will be available in the later rounds.

[dynamite140]

Dan Uggla and Joe Maeur should be doing good

[Shortstop]

I'm pissed as a Reds fan about Aroldis Chapman. Why? Keep him a closing.
It better not turn out like the Danny Graves experiment!!!

I'm a little confused about this move, also.

As the saying goes, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."

[stevenash]

Indians' Rotation - Hoping for Production from the Top: Losses are a terrible stat, but when your team's top two starters combine for 32 losses in one season, that's probably a bad sign. Alas, 2012 was a rough year for Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez, who combined for almost 400 innings with an ERA above 5.00 to go along with those 32 defeats against just 20 victories. For Masterson, the problem was an inability to get out left-handed batters (.613 OPS vs. RHB and .825 OPS vs. LHB), which has been a career-long issue for the 27-year old. Masterson continued to induce a high percentage of groundballs (55%), but experienced an uptick in both his walk and HR rates. In 2013, the Indians hope Masterson can revert back to his 2011 self when he limited lefties to "just" a .745 OPS and finished that season with a 3.21 ERA. For fantasy owners, Masterson doesn't have a huge upside and represents significant risk until he improves this deficiency.

As for my good friend, Ubaldo, it's safe to say I won't be predicting 180 Ks and a sub-4.00 ERA like I did last preseason. Jimenez has now lost nearly 4 mph off his fastball since 2010 and has seen his strikeout percentage drop from 23% that season to just 17% in 2012. In 2012, his BB/9 spiked to 4.84 while his HR/9 jumped from 0.81 in 2011 to 1.27. He also became a flyball pitcher as his GB% fell from 47% to 38%. All told, Jimenez was one of the worst pitchers in baseball. To think he's going to recover from such a poor season to the point that he's a fantasy commodity is tough to see. I don't believe he's even worth a late round add in deep leagues.

Indians' Bullpen - It's all Chris Perez and Vinnie Pestano: The Indians enter 2013 with their 8th and 9th innings set in stone. Vinnie Pestano, the best reliever on the Tribe, will pitch the 8th with Chris Perez continuing in his closer's role for the 9th. Perez posted just a 5.88 K/9 in 2011 and his 5.01 xFIP (compared to a 3.32 ERA) screamed regression for 2012. However, Perez saved 39 of 43 games a season ago and recorded a respectable 3.59 ERA thanks to regaining an ability to miss bats. Perez's K/9 jumped to 9.21, his walk rate fell by about a batter and a half per game and he improved his GB% by 12% to a career-high 40%. On the other hand, Pestano's 2.57 ERA is a bit deceiving. His K/9 fell from 12.17 in 2011 to 9.77 in 2012 and his 3.74 xFIP was more than a run above his ERA. His overall numbers were still strong, but Pestano wasn't nearly as dominant as he was in 2011. Pestano's worth adding as a good source of strikeouts and will be the first in line for saves if Perez really struggles or gets traded at some point.

Reds' Leadoff Spot and Outfield - Shin-Soo Choo to the Rescue: The Reds' leadoff hitters had the lowest OBP of any team last season so they went out and acquired an OBP-machine in Shin-Soo Choo to bat first and man centerfield. The good news for fantasy owners is that Choo should leadoff in front of a much better lineup than he did in 2012, although I highly question the move to play him in center where he's only played one game during his MLB career. But fantasy managers don't care about defense, so let's focus on what Choo will produce offensively in 2013. In 2012, Choo bounced back from a poor 2011 to post a career-best 23% LD rate to go along with a 13% HR/FB mark. He finished with 16 HRs and 21 steals while batting .283. For this season, our projections take into account the Reds' lineup and peg Choo to enjoy an uptick in his counting stats from last season. Overall, Choo's value is that he can provide reliability to your fantasy team. He's going to hit between 15-20 HRs, score 85-90 runs, steal around 15-20 bases and bat in the upper .200s with a strong OBP. As for the other Reds' hitters, especially Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto and Ryan Ludwick, the Choo acquisition should mean an increase in RBI opportunities since the former Indian will be on-base significantly more often than the Reds' leadoff hitters in 2012. Overall, this was a great move by Cincinnati and bolsters the fantasy value of several players, including Choo himself.

Reds' Rotation - Will the Cuban Missile Soar as a Starter?: One of the most interesting spring training stories is Cincinnati moving Aroldis Chapman from the bullpen to the rotation in the hopes of maximizing the pitcher's value. The Reds are purposefully being quiet on the specifics of the plan this spring and currently have Chapman as their 6th starter behind Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake. Last season, Chapman tossed 71 innings, posting a 1.93 xFIP, 1.51 ERA and striking out more than 15 batters per nine innings. His chase rate was also an impressive 34%. Clearly, Chapman's stuff is incredible. For fantasy managers, however, Chapman now represents a high risk, high reward option. Can he adjust to not being able to throw maximum effort on each pitch? Will he sustain a high level of performance in the second half, considering his career-high innings in any professional season is 118 for his Cuban club in 2009? Can he harness his change-up to be an effective third pitch to offset his electric fastball and slider? And, can he steer clear of off-the-field trouble after several incidents during his first big league season? If Chapman manages to answers these questions affirmatively, his fantasy upside is off the charts.

Cardinals' Rotation - How Good will Skinny Lance Lynn be in 2013?: Lance Lynn enjoyed a great 2012 season where he finished with a 9.20 K/9, 24% strikeout rate, 3.78 ERA and 3.49 FIP to go along with 18 wins. Despite such strong numbers, Lynn finished the season out of the bullpen for St. Louis after a rough August and the return of Chris Carpenter. Manager Mike Matheny also questioned the right hander's commitment to keeping himself in shape (he ballooned to 280 pounds last season) and didn't guarantee him a rotation spot heading into spring training (although with the loss of Carpenter, it's unlikely Lynn loses his spot now). Lynn seems to have taken notice and entered camp last week 40 pounds lighter than he weighed at the end of last season, thanks to working out six days a week during the offseason. Assuming Lynn remains a starter, the Cardinals will want to see him improve against lefties, who posted a slash line of .268/.384./456 against him in 2012. In terms of fantasy value, Lynn's ERA and WHIP are in line with most decent SPs, but what separates him is his ability to miss bats. It's difficult to find a pitcher for a few bucks or a mid-to-late round pick that can potentially punch out 180-190 batters in a season, but Lynn's one of those guys. Lynn's risky, but for the right price, he could be a steal in 2013.

Cardinals' First Base - Allen Craig, Top 5 Fantasy First Baseman: Allen Craig won't hit like Albert Pujols in his prime, but the St. Louis first baseman has a real shot at being a top 5 fantasy first baseman in 2013, behind Joey Votto, Pujols, Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez. Craig broke onto the fantasy scene last season by posting a .307/.354/.522 slash line to go along with a .215 ISO and 22 HRs. He also owned a 22% LD rate and 17% HR/FB rate. However, if you looked closely at Craig's career minor and major leagues numbers through 2011, his 2012 breakout makes more sense. In 219 plate appearances with the big league club in 2011, Craig owned a .240 ISO, 18% HR/FB rate and batted .315/.362/.555. And before that, he had clubbed 18+ HRs in four straight professional seasons while tallying batting averages in the high .290s/low .300s. At 28-years old, Craig is in the middle of his prime and should be one of the best first base plays in 2013. I expect more than 25 HRs, 100 RBI and 90 runs to go along with a batting average around .290.

Curtis Granderson (NYY, OF): Injuries are a part of baseball, but usually players get at least one full spring training AB under their belt before something happens. That wasn't the case with New York's Curtis Granderson who got hit by a pitch in his first AB of the spring on Sunday. Initially thought to be a deep bruise, x-rays confirmed a fracture of the forearm that will put the outfielder on the shelf for about 10 weeks. That puts his return around mid-May, after a likely extended rehab assignment since he's missing all of spring training. From a fantasy perspective, this screams opportunity for those in leagues that have not had an auction or draft yet. Granderson can now likely be had for a discount since he's missing a chunk of the season. Considering he has 40+ HR potential in a full season, posted 100+ RBI and runs in 2012 and will likely enjoy an uptick in his batting average this season (assuming he improves upon his career-low .260 BABIP in 2012), I'm very comfortable taking the chance on adding him and waiting out the injury time.

Jake Peavy (CWS, SP): The oft-injured Jake Peavy was a fantasy stud during the first half of 2012, posting a 2.85 ERA and 0.99 WHIP before tiring in the second half and recording a 4.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Peavy's full season numbers (3.37 ERA, 4.00 xFIP) indicate he enjoyed a degree of luck so it's unlikely the right hander will maintain an ERA in the low 3.00s again in 2013. What I like about Peavy is that he owned a 7.97 K/9 and 22% strikeout rate, so a season of a 3.75 ERA and 180 Ks seems like a good bet - assuming he can stay healthy. After throwing just 111 IP in 2011, and increasing his workload to 219 IP in 2012, I have some concerns about Peavy's ability to toss another injury-free 200 innings. That said, Peavy should be a valuable starter this season, but don't overpay for his 2012 campaign.

Anibal Sanchez (DET, SP): While not the sexiest name in your fantasy auction or draft, Anibal Sanchez is a reliable, consistent SP that can provide value in all league formats. Sanchez has now tossed three straight seasons of 190+ innings with ERAs of 3.55, 3.67 and 3.86. His FIP marks during that same span (3.32, 3.35, 3.53) indicate the right hander hasn't been lucky - just good. His strikeout-to-walk rates have improved from 2.24 in 2010 to 3.16 in 2011 to 3.48 in 2012, and he recorded a career-best 46% GB% last season. Moving to the American League hinders Sanchez's value a bit, and he is unlikely to ever match his 2011 K/9 rate of 9.26, but, nonetheless, he'll provide a bunch of solid innings for little risk.

Greg Holland (KC, RP): If you're searching for an under-the-radar closer, Greg Holland is your guy. Holland's peripheral stats from 2012 indicate he can be an elite closer in 2013. In 67 innings last season, Holland posted a 12.22 K/9 with an outstanding 32% strikeout rate to go along with a 2.96 ERA and 3.17 xFIP. The right hander also allowed just 2 HRs all season and saved 16 of 20 games. Missing a lot of bats and keeping the ball in the park is a recipe for success for any pitcher. My one concern with Holland is his walk rate, which, at 4.57 BB/9, contributed to a 1.37 WHIP in 2012 (a .346 BABIP also inflated Holland's WHIP). He's always had fairly high walk rates, so I doubt he improves on that by much this season. Still, while other managers pay premium dollar for Jonathan Papelbon or Jason Motte, Holland should put up better strikeout numbers while saving around 30 games.

Chase Utley (PHI, 2B): Chase Utley participated in his first spring training game on Saturday, playing three innings and going 1-for-2 with an RBI. The Phillies' second baseman is saying all the right things about his health, but the bottom line is he hasn't topped 515 plate appearances since 2009 and is now 35 years old. Second base is a thin position, so the approach I'd take with Utley is to play him as part of a platoon. He can still hit and run when he plays - 11 HRs and 11 steals in 83 games last season - so start him on his healthy days and, when he's out, plug in cheap/late round guys like Daniel Murphy or Omar Infante. You won't get Robinson Cano production, but this approach can keep you fairly productive at second base while mitigating some of the injury-risk associated with Utley.

Scott Baker (CHC, SP): Scott Baker threw a 45-pitch bullpen session on Saturday, although there is no date for when he'll make his Cactus League debut. Baker is coming back from Tommy John surgery and is hoping to build off his solid 2011 campaign where he posted a 3.14 ERA and 3.45 FIP to go along with an 8.22 K/9. Pitching in Chicago isn't ideal for a guy like Baker, who is a primarily fly ball pitcher, but he was trending in the right direction, before his injury last year, with his peripheral stats from 2009 to 2011. During that span, Baker had lowered his HR/9 and BB/9 while improved his strikeout rate each season. With that trajectory in mind, I'd keep an eye on Baker in deeper leagues as a potential late round draft pick.

Roy Halladay (PHI, SP): After four straight seasons with an ERA under 3.00, Roy Halladay regressed in 2012 by posting a 4.49 ERA in just 156 IP. While his 3.60 xFIP indicates Halladay wasn't as bad as his ERA, Doc still didn't provide his fantasy owners with much value. He struck our fewer and walked more batters compared to his 2011 season and, worse, gave up significantly more HRs (0.39 HR/9 in '11 vs. 1.04 HR/9 in '12). So, even though we're in the early stages of spring training, it was good to see Halladay have a solid outing on Sunday against the Tigers. The right hander struck out two and allowed one run in two innings of work. Now that he's fully recovered from a shoulder strain last season, Halladay should have some velocity back on both his fastball and curveball and is a nice bounce back candidate - even at age 35.

Carlos Carrasco (CLE, SP): Carlos Carrasco is hoping to have a successful return from Tommy John surgery that has kept him from pitching since the middle of the 2011 season. He started against the Rays on Sunday and allowed 3 ER in one inning of work. Carrasco has potential to have fantasy value in deeper leagues at some point, but it's not likely to be in 2013. He posted a 4.07 xFIP in 124 innings in 2011 after debuting with a 3.42 xFIP in 44 innings in 2010. He was the marquee name coming over from Philadelphia in the Cliff Lee deal and enjoyed success in the high minors between 2008 and 2010. For now, Carrasco is someone to keep in the back of your mind, but he's unlikely to be a contributor to fantasy teams this season.

Kyle Seager (SEA, 3B): Kyle Seager went 2-for-3 on Sunday against the Padres and is somebody to keep an eye on in 2013. Seager had a nice 2012 campaign, hitting 20 HRs, stealing 13 bases, posting a .163 ISO and knocking in 86 RBI. At just 25, Seager is entering his prime and, while he may not ever be an all star, he can put up solid numbers at a tough-to-fill position for fantasy teams. With a 22% LD rate, Seager was unlucky to own a .286 BABIP, so I expect his batting average to rebound into the .265-.270 range in 2013. With the new Mariner acquisitions this past offseason, Seager may drop out of the cleanup spot but should still hit somewhere in the middle of the lineup and have RBI chances. We're projecting 21 HRs and 11 steals, which isn't too shabby for the hot corner. Considering it shouldn't take much to acquire him in your draft or auction, Seager's a guy I'm targeting in deeper leagues.

Derek Jeter (NYY, SS): Yankees' general manager Brian Cashman announced on Sunday that Derek Jeter is likely to make his spring training debut on March 10. Jeter ran on the infield dirt on Saturday and will initially DH in spring training games as the Yankees slowly bring him along. At some point Jeter will decline, but the past two seasons he's hit .297 and .316. Last season, he also posted his highest LD% since 2006 and his highest ISO (.113) since 2009. Looking at his numbers, nothing points to a decline in 2013, but The Captain can't be good forever. Take Jeter knowing that offseason ankle surgery and his age make for a risky option, even at a high-need position like SS.

[Shortstop]

Terrific info here to say the least.

I'm looking forward to watching Starling Marte in his sophomore year.

In my opinion, he's a definite future star that just needs a little maturing and seasoning.

[stevenash]

Bryce Harper is 6-for-8 so far in the Grapefruit League and “taking extra bases at will”



​Jedd Gyorko isn’t the only on-fire spring hitter.Nationals left fielder Bryce Harper — who doesn’t turn 21 years old until October — went 3-for-3 with two doubles Tuesday in the Nationals’ 9-5 Grapefruit League loss to the Braves. Harper is now 6-for-8 (.750) this spring and “taking extra bases at will,” writes Mark Zuckerman of CSN Washington.

Harper was supposed to get a routine day off on Wednesday afternoon against the Marlins, but he talked his way into the lineup because both Jayson Werth and Denard Span are playing, and Harper wants to get comfortable with his fellow starters.

“I had him out of the lineup to rest him, and he said: ‘What am I doing out of the lineup? I want in the lineup,’” Nats manager Davey Johnson explained to reporters Tuesday. “I’m already getting it. He’s in.”

Harper batted .270/.340/.477 with 22 home runs, 26 doubles, 18 steals and 59 RBI over his first 139 major league games last season. He carries National League MVP potential into the 2013 campaign.

[soccerzyko]

Hope Travis hafner plays a field position this year. Sucks he can only be in DH slot for fantasy leagues

[Andy117]

Hope Travis hafner plays a field position this year. Sucks he can only be in DH slot for fantasy leagues

Hafner hasn't played in the field since 2007, I wouldn't count on it. Hell, I wouldn't count on Hafner for anything anyway.

[Wulfman14]

i think joe mauer will hit a ton of singles and doubles and keep his avg. above .290 all season

[RealMadrid]

Thanks stevenash for the info, it's very useful.

[Mitchell88]

Nash will you be updating this thread right through? thanks for the info saves me a lot of time searching

[stevenash]

Oakland A's A Healthy Brett Anderson?

Anderson made his return from Tommy John surgery in late August for the A's, and made six starts in which he had an ERA of 2.57 along with a 4-2 record. While he benefitted from a .272 BABIP and 5.9 percent HR/FB ratio, there were a lot of positive signs in Anderson's performance. His 8 percent swinging strike rate was a career best, and a 1.80 BB/9 is very impressive after missing an entire year. Anderson has always been known as a groundball pitcher, and he posted a career best 59.8 percent rate in 2012. He averaged 91.5 mph with his fastball, which was an improvement from 2011 (90.9 mph). Owners could expect a slight increase considering another year has been removed from the surgery. Anderson will never be a big time strikeout pitcher, but his ability to limit fly balls and walks should lead to an ERA somewhere between 3.50 and 3.75.

Rookie Watch: Hiroyuki Nakajima (SS)Nakajima finally made the jump to the MLB this offseason, and is currently slated to be the Oakland's starting shortstop. We've seen various Japanese hitters over the years struggle with their transition in the US, but Nakajima might be a pleasant surprise for owners this year. I've heard many scouts compare Nakajima to Norichika Aoki before Aoki made his move last season. Nakajima hit 13 home runs in 136 games last year with the Seibu Lions while posting a .311/.382/.451 line. Potential owners should expect a drop in home runs (probably a ceiling of 10), but Nakjima has shown to be a strong gap hitter with decent speed. His stolen base numbers should be in the low teens, and I would expect a .275/.330/.375 type of slash line. Nakajima is definitely a risk, but he could provide some value in deep leagues.

Washington NationalsRisk/Reward: Dan Haren (SP)Haren's 2012 season was a struggle pitching to a 4.33 ERA, his worst as a full time starter, while dealing with a bad back for most of the year. As a result, Haren's average fastball velocity fell from 90 mph to 88.5 mph, as he struggled to get his fastball to around 90 mph throughout the second half of the year. His The 32 year-old has made it a point to indicate he has felt healthy all season, but his medical reports were a significant topic this offseason. While a risky pick, Haren should be able to pitch to an ERA between 3.70-3.90 along with a strikeout rate around 7.5 K/9. I expect his HR/FB ratio to improve with a move to Washington along with the possibility of a rebound in his velocity. Haren is passed his peak, but he should keep his walk rate just under 1.8 BB/9, which should also translate to a 1.20 WHIP.

Harper Watch 2013-Harper's first major league season was a success posting a solid .270/.340/.477 line while hitting 22 home runs and stealing 18 bases in 139 games with the Nationals. Mike Trout's amazing season has distorted the spectacular year Harper put together with a .206 ISO and .352 wOBA. His sophomore campaign this year might be the most anticipated of any player. In terms of his overall slash line, I don't envision Harper to improve all the dramatically considering his 9.4 percent walk rate and 20.1 percent strikeout rate from last year. However, I do expect an improvement in his stolen base rate along with a 28-30 home runs. Harper's 16.2 percent HR/FB ratio was extremely impressive at his age, and owners should expect his 32.3 percent fly ball rate to improve with his improved muscle. With a .275/.350/.500 line, 28-30 home runs and 20-25 stolen bases, we have Harper ranked as the 12th best outfielder.

San Francisco GiantsIs Sergio Romo an elite closer option?
Romo is going into spring training for the first time in his career with the closer title. Despite that fact, Romo should be considered an elite option at the position (our software ranks him as the fifth best option as of right now). The 30 year-old relied more on his slider in 2012 (61.8 percent rate), as his fastball velocity declined to a career low average of 87.7 mph. Even with the velocity drop, Romo still maintained a swinging strike rate of 15.3 percent while maintaining a strong walk rate for a closer (1.63 BB/9). In addition, he has shown the ability to handle left-handed hitters by inducing more ground balls. His 48.2 percent ground ball rate was a career best, and he was able to generate a 60.4 percent rate against LHH. Look for his strand rate to regress in 2013, but I still believe he will have a strikeout percentage greater than 30 percent and finish with an ERA around 2.00.

Forecasting Brandon Belt (1B/OF)-

Belt had a strange season in 2012 producing a strong OBP (.360) in his first full season. However, his lack of power was troubling (seven HR in 472 plate appearances and .146 ISO) along with his poor strikeout rate (22.5 percent). Despite some concerns heading into this season, Belt should be able to improve upon his power numbers. At 24 years old, Belt should see his 6.8 percent HR/FB ratio increase. His 2.6 percent ratio against right-handed pitchers was shockingly low, and will likely be seen as an anomaly. Belt was likely sit out once or twice a week when Buster Posey needs a rest, but Bruce Bochy is having Belt practice in left field in order to keep his bat in the lineup. While Belt's power should improve, potential owners should be worried about a possible decline in terms of average. His 12.8 percent swinging strike rate might translate into a higher strikeout rate, and it is unlikely that he will reproduce a 25.6 percent line drive rate and .351 BABIP. Owners should expect .265/.355/.440 line and 15-17 home runs.

Around the LeagueJuan Rivera (OF/1B-NYY)- With Curtis Granderson expected to miss the next 10 weeks, Rivera is of now the front-runner to be the starting left-fielder on Opening Day. The 34 year-old outfielder, who is eligible at first base, went hitless in three at-bats on Sunday and would only be an option in deep and AL-only leagues for the first two months of the year. Rivera hit .244/.286/.375 along with nine home runs in 339 plate appearances last year. Matt Diaz is also supposed to compete with Rivera for the spot, but it appears certain that Rivera will definitely make the team. He will spell Travis Hafner at DH against left-handed starters. I wouldn't expect much a different line from Rivera this year, and he has not produce a wOBA higher than .320 since 2009. His fly ball rate has decreased in each of the last three years along with an increase in his infield fly ball rate.

Cliff Lee (SP-PHI)- Lee made his first spring training start on Monday against the Tigers, and threw two scoreless innings. I did not get any velocity readings from the game, but Lee had complete command of his cutter and fastball while mixing in some change-ups. Our software ranks him as the ninth best starter in the league, and I am still very high on the 34 year-old heading into the year. We have him projected for a 3.40 ERA, which I think is somewhat conservative. His 11.8 percent HR/FB rate is likely to regress, and his strikeout percentage has been above 22 percent in each of the last three years. In addition, his average fastball velocity has increased in each of the last three seasons. Lee is one of the safer starting pitchers, and I like him to finish the year with an ERA just above 3.00 with a similar strikeout rate to last season.

Mike Napoli (1B/C-BOS)- Napoli is scheduled to make his spring debut on Friday playing first base. Obviously his hip condition is something that owners will probably monitor throughout the entire season, but considering his eligibility at catcher, Napoli is certainly worth the risk. Our software is projecting him to hit 28 home runs with a .250/.350/.456 line, but it is entirely possible he can exceed those expectations in Fenway Park. Napoli's batting average tanked in 2012 because of a career worst strikeout rate of 30 percent. However, his swinging strike rate of 11.5 percent was right at his career rate of 11.6 percent. Additionally, his batted ball profile was almost identical to the one he produced in 2011. I don't expect him to replicate his 2011 season, and I believe our projection is right on the money.

Ian Kennedy (SP-ARI)- Kirk Gibson announced on Monday that Kennedy would be the Opening Day starter for the Diamondbacks. The right-hander finished the 2012 season with a 15-12 record along with a 4.02 ERA and 4.04 FIP. Kennedy's elevated BABIP (.306) compared to his career rate (.280) was partly responsible for his higher ERA, and our software expects Kennedy to have an ERA of 3.83 in 2013. His peripherals were almost identical to his 2012 numbers, and his swinging strike rate of 10.2 percent indicates that an improved strikeout rate could be a possibility this year. Kennedy was able to have an ERA below 3.00 in 2011 because of a 7.7 percent HR/FB ratio, but it is likely he will pitch to his career rate of 9.4 percent. Despite some poor luck, 2012 is a better model for Kennedy's 2013 projection.

Rob Brantly (C-MIA)- Brantly was projected to get most of the plate appearances at catcher this season, but he is guaranteed to get almost all of the playing time during the first month of the season with Jeff Mathis out six to eight weeks with a broken collarbone. Obtained in the Anibal Sanchez deal, Brantly was impressive in his 113 plate appearances at the end of the season. He hit three home runs and produced an impressive .290/.372/.460 line. Brantly showed impressive plate discipline in his brief stint (11.3 percent walk rate), but I expect that rate to drop by three percentage points in 2013 considering his below average walk rates in the minors. In addition, his 10.3 percent swinging strike rate indicates his strikeout rate could increase over the course of a full season. Brantly should really only be considered in NL-only leagues at this point.

Casey Janssen (RP-TOR)- Janssen, who was tabbed the closer earlier in the month, has yet to throw off a mound since undergoing shoulder surgery in November. It is a little early to be concerned about Janssen, but it is worth noting that he is definitely behind in his spring training workload and that Sergio Santos looked sharp in his first spring training outing. Santos would likely be tabbed the closer if Janssen starts the season on the DL. Janssen delivered one of his best seasons in 2012 posting a career best strikeout rate (9.47 K/9), walk rate (1.55 BB/9) and WHIP (0.86). However, he benefitted from an extremely low BABIP (.240) and high strand rate (83 percent). Our software currently has him ranked as the 12th best closer available, but potential owners should keep an eye out on his progress over the next few weeks.

Wilin Rosario (C-COL)- Rosario was scratched from the Rockies game on Monday because of lower back tightness. The 24 year-old catcher hit 28 home runs along with a .270/.312/.530 line in 472 plate appearances last season. As of now there is nothing to be alarmed about, but it is always concerning when a catcher deals with back problems. Our software currently ranks Rosario as the seventh best option at the position, but he might best utilized in daily leagues where owners can sit him when he is playing on the road. Like most Rockies hitters, Rosario's home and away splits are drastic (.957 OPS at home versus .722 on the road). His 14.5 percent swinging strike rate could translate into a higher strikeout rate, and we are projecting him to finish with a .257 batting average. Owners should keep an eye on his progress over the next week.

Adam Wainwright (SP-STL)- Wainwright made his first start of the spring on Monday throwing 2.2 scoreless innings in which he allowed four hits and struck out three. In his first season back from Tommy John surgery, Wainwright struggled with his velocity at times and was victimized by a below average strand rate (67.8 percent). He was also hurt by a career worst .315 BABIP, but his 23 percent line drive rate indicates that he was giving up a lot of hard hit balls. Our software has Wainwright as the eighth best starter available, and I agree that he will have a bounce back season. In terms of peripherals, he was exactly where he was in 2009-2010 and his ground ball rate of 50.8 percent was almost identical as well. Owners should expect an ERA between 3.05 and 3.20 along with a strikeout rate hovering around 8.20 K/9.

Jeremy Bonderman (SP-SEA)- Bonderman took the mound for the first time since 2010 on Monday against the Angels. He allowed three runs on two hits, a home run and a walk in his inning of work. The 30 year-old sat out all of last year recovering from Tommy John surgery, and he did not look very impressive today. His fastball sat between 87-91 mph today, while he lacked command with both his fastball and slider. Bonderman did not record a swinging strike in his appearance on Monday, and I would be surprised if he made any contributions this season. Sometimes these non-roster invitees turn out well (ie Bartolo Colon in 2011), but it seems as if Scott Kazmir might be the best shot in 2013. Bonderman's career best ERA came in 2006 when he finished the year with a 4.08 ERA in 214 innings pitched. The right-hander constantly underperformed with regards to DIPS because of his career strand rate of 67.3 percent.

[koz-man]

Got to give a shout out to ya nash.
Very Nice thread....Lots of good info here...

[stevenash]

Dodgers' fifth starter
Ted Lilly takes the hill on Thursday for his spring debut, and he's apparently still in competition with three other guys - Chris Capuano, Chad Billingsley, and Aaron Harang. Billingsley allowed two runs on five hits over two innings in his spring debut, thought he also didn't walk a batter. He's reported that the elbow feels fine, and the team is confident enough now that he's on the same program as their other pitchers. They seem to clearly want him to win the spot. In that scenario, Capuano probably gets traded, Harang is shipped to the pen, and Lilly is either traded or cut loose outright.

Dodgers at SS/3BHanley Ramirez still seems set to be the shortstop, and after homering in his first spring game, Luis Cruz is the overwhelming favorite to start at third. Dee Gordon is a wild card here, and in his first start Monday, Gordon drew a pair of walks and stole a base. He could catch fire and push Ramirez to third and Cruz to a utility role, but more than likely, Gordon will be packing his bags for Triple-A Albuquerque next month. That's what happens when you show erratic defense and a .280 OBP. Gordon does a good job hitting the ball on the ground, but he clearly needs to improve his bunting, as just 23.1% of this bunts went for hits versus 35% in his rookie year. If he can do that and improve his plate recognition, we'll see him back in LA at some point this year.

Dbacks #5 starterThis is still thought to be a battle between Pat Corbin, Tyler Skaggs, and Randall Delgado. Given it's still only February, it's best to put very little weight these early returns, but early advantage goes to Corbin. Skaggs was touched for four runs (two earned) on four hits over 1.2 innings in his debut while Corbin gave up no runs on one hit with four strikeouts in his first two outings. Any of the three could easily get the Opening Day nod, but if you asked me to rank them in terms of long-term keeper preference, I'd go Skaggs, Delgado, Corbin. It's not a slight on Corbin, as if he can do a better job keeping the ball in the park (1.18 HR/9IP in 2012), he could find himself as a #3 starter within the next couple years.

How good can Paul Goldschmidt be?When filling out one's 1B rankings, if you don't have Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Joey Votto as your top three (pick the order), you've done it wrong. Beyond that, there's a case for a number of guys in the 4-10 slots, and Goldschmidt is right there, perhaps ranking as high as #4, particularly in keeper leagues. The power has always been there, as Goldschmidt clubbed 35 and 38 homers in the two years before hitting "just" 20 in 2012. Surprisingly, just half of Goldschmidt's homers came in hitter-friendly Chase Field, but that's just one indicator that there's more power to come. He also improved his contact rate year over year from 70.1% to 77.9% and now with a full year under his belt and unquestioned status at the starter at first base, I expect bigger things in 2013.

Jedd Gyorko in the lead for the second base job?
As I type this, it's Tuesday afternoon and Gyorko is 3-for-9 with a pair of homers and eight RBI on the spring. His competitor for the starting second base job, Logan Forsythe is 0-for-6. Okay, it's early, but this may also be a sign of how things could go the rest of the way. Manager Bud Black didn't exactly call his defense Gold Glove caliber, but he did praise his footwork and handling of routine balls. He'll never be Ryne Sandberg defensively, but the Padres think his offensive upside outweighs the perceived (or real?) defensive shortcomings. Gyorko batted an impressive .325/.377/.585 last year for Triple-A Tucson and tallied 30 homers overall, including the six he hit in Double-A. It's still possible that his performance will dictate his winning the job, but financial pressures could lead to his opening in Triple-A to delay his service time.

Padres rotationWe figured Casey Kelly was a near-lock for one of the five rotation spots, but that may not be the case. Kelly's first spring outing was a bit of a disaster: 1.2 innings, 7 hits, 3 runs. I missed the game so I didn't see how he looked, but that's a rough start. Fortunately for him, Freddy Garcia was tapped for five runs (four earned) in just one inning in the same game, so Kelly probably lost little, if any, ground. There's still Tyson Ross, Eric Stults, and possibly Tim Stauffer (if healthy) as threats for a spot, so don't panic just yet if you're a Kelly owner. If I had to guess, the team's Opening Day rotation would be Edinson Volquez, Clayton Richard, Jason Marquis, Kelly, and Stults. Other guys currently hurt to monitor include Cory Luebke (TJ surgery - possible May return), Andrew Cashner (thumb - possibly ready by April 1, but is he a starter or reliever?), and Joe Wieland (TJ surgery - not ready before August)

.Aaron Hicks (OF-MIN) - Hicks was 2-for-4 with a double on Tuesday, functioning as the team's leadoff man and center fielder. He's competing with Joe Benson and probably Darin Mastroianni for the job. Benson homered in the same game, but also struck out three times. Hicks has yet to play above Double-A, but as a former first-round pick (2008), he has the talent to jump in and win the job. Hicks rebounded from a tough 201 to bat .285/.382/.459 in Double-A last year with 13 homers and 32 stolen bases. He's walked at a solid 15% clip in the minors and it's generally thought that there is more power to come. We saw some of that come last year as his HR total equaled his combined output in 2010-2011. Look for Hicks to win this job and provide plenty of value.

Bruce Rondon (RP-DET) - Of the five outs he's recorded this spring, four of come via the strikeout, so that's exactly what we look for in a closer. On the down side, he walked two batters and threw just eight of 21 pitches for strikes, giving him three walks on the spring. Unless Jim Leyland is up for having a heart attack or two during the season, he's going to want someone in the closer role with decent control. Rondon posted a subpar 5.5 BB/9 in his first three pro seasons, including seven walks in eight innings last year with the Tigers. So while the stuff is there, you will want to keep Joaquin Benoit and Octavio Dotel on your radar as possible closers.

Domonic Brown (OF-PHI) - Brown hit his second homer of the spring Tuesday and is now 3-for-7 early on as he looks to nail down a starting OF job. Brown should have a leg up given his prospect status, but John Mayberry and Darin Ruf are other options should Brown not hit this spring. In parts of three big league seasons, Brown has hit just .236/.315/.388 over 433 at-bats. His 79% BB% and 11% walk rates aren't bad, so there are some reasons for optimism. I like Brown as a sleeper, but perhaps only in NL-only leagues.

Ryan Raburn (UT-CLE) - Raburn is probably a guy to put on your radars in deeper leagues, probably AL-only and very deep mixed formats. Raburn homered in his first three at-bats of the spring and was off to a 6-for-8 start as of Tuesday. Raburn has no clear path to regular playing time, but it's possible he could see at-bats one of the outfield corners, and perhaps at third base should Lonnie Chisenhall struggle. Raburn is a career .258/.313/.435 hitter with some pop, so he could have some short-term value should the playing time be there.

Jackie Bradley Jr. (OF-BOS) - Bradley has apparently impressed to the point where he could make the Opening Day roster. Shane Victorino and Jacoby Ellsbury are two locks, but left field is a bit up in the air with Johnny Gomes, Daniel Nava, and perhaps Mike Carp as the internal options. Bradley is 4-for-6 to start the spring, and though his timetable was thought to be 2014 as Ellsbury's potential replacement, he may have a chance to accelerate things. Bradley hit a leadoff-worthy .315/.430/.482 between High-A and Double-A last year, including a 0.98 EYE and 24 stolen bases. He bears watching in most formats for his upside.

Billy Hamilton (OF-CIN) - It's not going to be a long wait for Hamilton's arrival. Sure, he's just 1-for-6 with three strikeouts in the early going, but manager Dusty Baker recently praised his defense, and given the Reds have no center fielder on their major league roster, his arrival could come quickly. Ryan Ludwick, Shin-Soo Choo, and Jay Bruce project as the current regulars, but once an injury strikes, Hamilton sould find himself in Cincinnati. The Reds surprisingly gave Ludwick a lucrative two-year $15 million deal, but should the 34 year-old return to his 2010-2011 production levels, he might become a very expensive fourth outfielder at some point. Hamilton of course stole 155 bases last year to set an all-time record and projects as an impact fantasy performer once he finds regular playing time.

Adam Eaton (OF-ARI) - Eaton homered and singled on Tuesday, leaving him 6-for-13 so far this spring. Eaton has never hit less than .300 or posted an OBP less than .409 in any of his minor league stops, so while he's a bit older at 24, his fantasy upside remains high. Eaton doesn't offer much in the way of power, but he should be able to hit .280 as a floor with 5-10 homes and upwards of 30 stolen bases, particularly if he leads off. With four solid outfielders in the fold, Eaton needs to get off to a good start to continue to play most days, but he's certainly not hurting his cause so far this spring. In addition to the solid AVG and OBP, Eaton has never posted an EYE less than 0.75, so he has a good chance at being at least a solid regular.

Justin Smoak (1B-SEA) - Smoak is off to a smokin' start so far this spring, homering and singling on Tuesday to leave him 5-for-9 through three games. He's expected to open the season as the team's starting first baseman, but given the acquisitions of guys like Mike Morse and Raul Ibanez, Smoak needs to get off to a good start in order to keep his job. Smoak has had over 1,200 big league at-bats to establish himself, but his .223/.306/.377 line is clearly far from adequate. His .259 BABIP SHOULD increase, but that's far from certain of course. He has at least posted an adequate 0.49 EYE in the big leagues, and at age 26, perhaps a breakout year is in store.

Wade Davis (SP-KC) - Davis a bit of a forgotten guy as the "other guy" who came to the Royals in the Wil Myers deal. Davis tossed a pair of scoreless innings Tuesday, but he's pretty much locked into a rotation spot in pitching-starved Kansas City. Davis was a very effective reliever in Tampa Bay last year, posting a 2.43 ERA in 70.1 innings to go with an impressive 11.1 K/9 and so-so 3.7 BB/9. Davis can't be expected to maintain that sort of K rate in a starting role, but 180 innings with 130 strikeouts and an ERA in the upper 3's is very possible. He should be a solid contributor in deeper formats.

Oscar Taveras (OF-STL) - I made a point of tuning into the Cardinals game Tuesday (thank you MLB TV), solely for the point of watching Oscar Taveras. He didn't disappoint, going 3-for-5 (all singles) with two runs scored and an RBI. He's now hitting .364 this spring and easily ranks along with Wil Myers and Billy Hamilton as the top three hitting prospects in the game. Taveras doesn't turn 21 until June, but after batting .321/.380/.572, he's earned rave reviews from scouts, who consider him a lock to be a future All-Star. Taveras even improved his contact rate year-over-year from 83% to 88%. He's the total package.

[dynamite140]

Ted Lilly is horrible. He throws one of the softest pitches in mlb.

[stevenash]

Trout's Extra Weight Leading to Extra Concerns?The short answer: hecks no! Reports out of Angels' camp have Trout at 241 lbs., 15 more than where he was for most of last year. What many forget is that Trout fell ill during spring training last year and lost 20+ lbs., delaying his 2012 debut and probably costing the Angels' dearly. Moreover, other reports have Trout putting on the weight in order to add a few more lbs. of muscle, as it's common to put on weight and then cut it into muscle. Either way, Trout is off to a fast start this spring, going 2 for 4 with a pair of BB's in early action.

We're projecting him to produce numbers that are very similar to last year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him produce like the #1 fantasy player this season. The talk of a sophomore slump, while interesting and not without examples, tends to forget that Trout had 135 AB's in 2011 where he went .220/.281/.390. He made his adjustments throughout 2012 to the final tune of .326/.399/.564, improving his BB rate by 3.8% along the way. If he falls to you early in drafts, don't let talk of sophomore slump or extra weight fool you.

Mike Scioscia and The Closer LabelMr. Scioscia frustrated fantasy owners last year by never really naming a full-time closer, and even when Frieri emerged, he would mix-and-match with the lefty Scott Downs (when healthy)

Now, with Ryan Madson all but assured to be on the DL for the better part of April, many around the fantasy world have assumed that Frieri would get dibs on the role. But, just yesterday Scioscia said that Frieri is only "a candidate" and "we have some depth in the back end of our 'pen." With Sean Burnett, Downs, and Kevin Jepsen, he may have a point. Frieri, while dominate at times last year with a 13.36 K/9 rate, also struggled most of the year with command to the tune of a 4.09 BB/9 rate, and hit a speed-bump towards the end of the year after an impressive start to his Angels career. Reports out of Angels' camp have Frieri working on a cutter to give hitters a different look. If he can harness that and improve his BB rate, Scioscia would find it mighty difficult to run anyone else out there in the 9th. Or would he? With all of these concerns and Ryan Madson's imminent return, Frieri is a nice fantasy option...but one that will more than likely cost more than he'll return for 2013.

Storylines Out of Pirates' CampThe Outfield Watch, ContinuedJose Tabata is a player I'm watching closely this spring. While spring stats don't usually mean a heck of a lot, in some rare cases, they do. They can especially mean something when a player is coming back from an injury-riddled campaign, has tweaked his approach during the off-season, or is battling for a position. In Tabata's case, all three apply. Tabata is off to a fast start, going 3 for 6 with a HR and a pair of doubles during his first week of spring action. The Pirates are invested in him (over $13 million due through 2016, which is like Josh Hamilton money for the Pirates). While the Pirates' brass has recently stated that it wants Starling Marte to earn the leadoff position this season, his 4.4 BB%, 27.5%, and 34.8% swing rate at pitches outside the zone a year ago raise red flags. I do like the fact that Marte had 13 BB's to 23 K's in the Dominican Winter League, but, until I see it against the big boys, I'm skeptical that he won't suffer through some growing pains this year.

The Prospect Watch, ContinuedGerrit Cole, the Pirates top prospect, made his spring debut on Wednesday, tossing two innings of 1 run ball, allowing 1 hit and 1 BB, with 1K. What impresses most about how Cole is going about his business this spring is, despite his elite velocity pushing the upper 90s, his focus on keeping hitters off balance. "The last pitch for which I got paid on velocity was like two years ago, for the draft...that's the last time you get paid for speed." Besides excellent grammar, Cole looks to be on the fast track to Pittsburgh. Did I mention his 1.42 groundball-to-fly-ball rate, .230 avg. against, and 136 K's vs. 45 BB's in 132 innings last year? He'll open the year in AAA, but with all of the issues at the back end of the Pirates rotation, look for him to be up in June for good.

Spring Hopes and Fantasy ExpectationsJavier Vazquez (SP-FA): Black Holes and Revelations! (Thanks Muse...now that song is stuck in my head). Vazquez announced that he won't pitch for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic and is likely out for the 2013 season after feeling discomfort stemming from knee surgery. He was being draft in some deep leagues in the hopes of a return to the mound and to the NL, but that appears highly unlikely after this announcement. While he's only 36 and his last season in 2011 for the Marlins produced 192+ quality innings with a 3.69 ERA, a 3.87 xFIP, and a 7.5 K/9 rate to go along with a 2.34 BB/rate, his comeback looks to be on hold. Avoid him in all formats.

Bobby Parnell (RP-NYM): With Frank Francisco still mending an injured pitching elbow, Bobby Parnell continues to look impressive this spring. He has thrown two scoreless innings so far, sporting the knuckle-curve that Jason Isringhausen taught him towards the end of last season. During the season's final two months, Parnell gave up only 1 earned run in 15 innings while converting all three of his save chances. The big knock on Parnell has been his control, but he lowered his walk rate from 4.10 BB/9 in 2011 to 2.62 BB/9 in 2012. Even if Francisco returns in early April, Parnell may never relinquish the job and could be a great fallback option for saves.

Zach Wheeler (SP-NYM): After throwing two scoreless innings over the weekend, the Mets top prospect had his start scratched on Wednesday due to a right oblique strain that he felt after taking BP. The Mets are calling it a precautionary move at this point, but oblique injuries can be tricky, so keep your eyes on this one. Wheeler had 148 K's to 59 BB's in 149 innings last year in AA and AAA, and many scouts see him as one of the most advanced pitchers in the minors. With the Mets' rotation being anything but stable, he could have an important impact in fantasy this year provided he stays healthy.

Nick Castellanos (OF-DET): The Tigers are so committed to Castellanos learning how to play the outfield that they won't even let him play third while Miguel Cabrera goes to the World Baseball Classic. Now whether or not that commitment leads to him breaking camp is a different matter. Castellanos is doing all he can to leapfrog Avisail Garcia as next in line behind Andy Dirks for the starting left field job, as he's 3 for 6 so far with 3 BB's and 2 K's. Castellanos destroyed high A to the tune of .405/.461/.553, but struggled a bit in AA with .264/.296/.382. I see him starting the year with some seasoning in the minors, but he'll be next in line behind Dirks and should be up by mid-season.

Jemile Weeks (2B-OAK): Weeks had quite the bizarre 2012. His BB-rate increased from 4.8% to 9.8% and his K-rate decreased from 14.2% to 13.7% from 2011, yet his OPS+ dipped from 110 to a ridiculous 71 (league average is 100!). In looking at his batted ball profile, we can see an alarming increase in ground ball rate (from 39.8% to 49.5%) and a significant decrease in line-drive rate (from 23.3% to 18.8%). In other words, the league figured him out and was able to induce weak contact (although a .256 BABIP was a bit on the unfortunate side). Weeks is a cerebral player, and his professional track record suggests that he'll be able to adjust. Although the A's infield is crowded, his spring is off to a great start, as he's gone 5 for 8 with a homer this past week. Given the unknowns and injury risks in the A's infield, look for Weeks to play a significant role in fantasy this year at a thin position.

Jim Henderson (RP-MIL): The Brewers' setup man has been working on a changeup in order to rectify his issues against lefties: they hit .294/.381/.353 against him last year as opposed to the .177/.239/.258 righties put up against him. While John Axford has the job, don't forget about his 9 blown saves from last year or his 5.06 BB/9 rate. With the Brewers having a solid lineup and expecting to contend for a wildcard spot, if Axford struggles early, don't be surprised to see Henderson back in the role he held for a brief time last year.

Stephen Pryor (RP-SEA): Beginning his bid to build off of a strong 2012 campaign, the imposing reliever tossed a scoreless inning of relief on Wednesday. In 26+ innings last year in the show, Pryor struck out an impressive 10.57 batters per 9, but also walked 5.09, following a similar trend of high K, high BB rates from his minor league days. His fastball averaged 96.2 MPH, and Pryor has hit triple digits. While I like most of the moves Seattle made in the offseason and think they could hang around the playoff race into the summer, they likely don't have enough firepower to stay with LAA, TEX, and OAK. Incumbent closer Tom Wilhelmsen could be traded towards the deadline. If so, Pryor could take over. He makes a great handcuff and speculative pick later in drafts.

Alejandro De Aza (OF-CHW): 2012 was a tumultuous season for De Aza, which saw him claim the leadoff spot, injury his oblique, go in a mid-season slump, lose playing time to DeWayne Wise, and then ride a swing-change into a strong September finish. His final line of .281/.349/.410 with 26 SB's and 81 runs is easily attainable in 2013 with his health in tact and his spot atop the lineup secured. De Aza will be representing the Dominican Republic in the WBC...he'd do well representing your team as a 4th OF option.

Brett Gardner (OF-NYY): The Yankees' outfielder is off to a hot start, going 5 for 8 in early spring action. More importantly, he looks to be 100% healthy and Joe Girardi has been experimenting with him in the leadoff position. In his healthy 2011 campaign, Gardner stole 49 bases, scored 87 runs, and walked 10.2% of the time. With the Yankees' injury situations, pencil him in for more AB's. And if we see him in the leadoff spot more often, you can expect the runs to push the century mark. With his 82% career success rate on the base-paths, the green light will be there, so he should swipe plenty of bags. His value continues to climb during the spring, so grab him at a discount while you can.

Mark Montgomery (RP-NYY): Drafted by the Yankees in 2011, Montgomery has been on the fast track with what many scouts call the best slider in the minors. In 2012 in A+ and AA, Montgomery compiled 99 K's against 22 BB's, allowing only 1 HR and 11 ER's in 64+ innings. After a minor back issue slowed him down to begin the spring, Montgomery threw a scoreless inning in his first spring action on Wednesday. The Yankees have had him on the fast-track, and I don't see any reason why they would slow his progression now. Look for him to be up by mid-season raking up the K's, vulturing a few wins, and maybe even sneaking in a couple of saves. If you're in a keeper or dynasty league, put him on your list for prospects to watch.

Josh Fields (RP-HOU): The Rule 5 pick from the Red Sox is a deep sleeper candidate for saves in the Houston pen. While Jose Veras is the favorite, his 5.37 BB/9 rate and 3.84 xFIP from 2011 raise a few red flags. Step in Josh Fields. The Astros have incentives to keep him on the MLB roster so as to avoid having to compensate the Red Sox, and the front office already has stated that he will compete for a spot in the back end of the pen. Across AA and AAA last year, Fields racked up 12 saves while boasting a 2.01 ERA and 77 K's to 18 BB's in 58+ innings. While he struggled some in the Dominican Winter League, he looked strong in his spring debut. He's definitely worth a late-round flier...the rebuilding Astros will give him a long look.

Brandon McCarthy (SP-ARI): McCarthy took the mound on Wednesday for the first time since that ugly line drive fractured his skull in September. The results were very solid with 4 K's, 3 Hits, and 1 ER in 2 innings of work. While this is a nice story and you have to be impressed with the quick comeback after such a complicated surgery, he may be a bit overvalued in fantasy circles in 2013. While his ERA was a solid 3.24, his xFIP stood at 4.23 a year ago. And while he 1.95 BB/9 rate is reason to smile, his 5.92 K/9 will temper the optimism. Add this with the fact that McCarthy has never thrown more than 170 innings in a season and he's only a risky #5 in your rotation.

P James McDonald A tale of 2 halves: Sub 1 WHIP/2.37 ERA in 1H, then a 1.63 WHIP/7.52 ERA in 2H. He's somewhere in-between as his first half was unsustainable with a lucky BABIP and lower than typical HR/FB rate.

P James Shields Shields continued to dominate with an increase in his GB rate to 51% along with a K/I in the 1:1 range. Expect another 15-17 Win season.

P Jason Hammel We saw both an increase in Hammel's GB rate (from .43 to .53) and his K/I increase from .55 to .96...both led to a big shift in performance from 4/76 ERA/1.40 WHIP in '11 to 3.43/1.24 in '12. A big reason was the sinker he has been mixing in with a 4 seam fastball...along with an effective slider his contact rate inside the strike zone has dropped from 92% to 86%...a monumental shift and a potential career turnabout. Recovering from a knee procedure, expected to be ready for opening day.

P Jason Vargas High Contact Rate when in k zone (88%) and poor K/I ratio (.65) makes him a wildcard. Last season it worked out well for him because his BABIP was a lucky .255, don't pay for that in 2013.

P Jeff Niemann Niemann (shoulder) is expected to be ready for the start of the season. He's slowly trending into a groundball pitcher (which is excellent) and his K/I has also been creeping up. Health will be the primary hurdle for 2013.

P Jeff Samardzija Impressive 84% contract rate allowed when in the K zone and 75% overall. Elite 1.03 K/I, and was able to clean up his BB% 2.9 in '12. Additionally he's become more of a GB pitcher (45% verses 41% in '11). Cubs also shorted him 3 Wins with lack of run support. His Split finger pitch is paying huge dividends now that he's starting to master it. We like him lots in 2013.

P Jered Weaver A lower than typical BABIP (239) and undeserved 12 Wins in the 2nd Half (with only 11 QS) and a 3.20 ERA, makes a build up from the 2012 season unlikely. Still an Ace anyway you look at him, but a 17-18 win season is more likely in 2013.

P Jeremy Hefner Hefner's a low K guy (.66 K/I) who relies on command (when he's on). He doesn't have much of a fastball (90), but his change up can be effective. There's be bumps in the road as he works through the league a second time.

P Jeremy Hellickson His 82% strand rate does not correlate with a .70 K/I ratio. Additionally he was lucky on balls hit into play (.304 BABIP). If skill set stays the same he's likely to regress some...but at only 25, he's going to start winning more games if he can go deeper into games.

P Jhoulys Chacin Chacin lost some time with a shoulder strain, but when he came back from a minor league stint he was barely improved. He's no longer fooling hitters, with his out of zone pitches, and when he's forced to stay in the zone (87% contact rate), he's been crushed...especially by LHP (.547 slg). Not optimistic that we'll ever see the encouraging skill set from 2010/11.

P Joe Blanton Blanton's control has improved considerably over the last few seasons, and it's currently at an elite 1.8% (BB/9)...hence the improvement in WHIP. Still a 50/50 pitcher with quality starts, but has avoided the dreaded disaster starts.

P Joe Kelly 77% strand Rate is likely not sustainable, with a .72 K/I...but 51% GB does offer some promise. Will have to figure out Lefties (.529 SLG) to take his game to another level.

P Johan Santana Was far from the same pitcher after extending himself with the midseason no-hitter. We'll have to see if the shoulder has anything left.

P John Lackey Missed '12 recovering from TJS, but expected to be ready for opening day. Was horrible in 2011, was very good in 2009, maybe something in-between in 2013. We'll have to see him this spring before refining a projection.

[stevenash]

Toronto Blue Jays Post Hype Sleeper Brett Lawrie 3B - Last week I talked about Eric Hosmer of the Royals as a post hype sleeper, and this week I am going to talk about Lawrie. I love drafting guys like Hosmer and Lawrie because of how the general fantasy community approaches them. Both of these guys entered 2012 with high expectations, and owners drafted each player based on what they could do, rather than what was most likely to happen (in the case of Lawrie, I was guilty). As a result they were overvalued. However, after disappointing years out of each player, it's amazing to see that now they are being drafted based heavily on their 2012 performances (not on their upside), when with another full year of at bats it's more likely each will hit the potential that had everyone overvaluing them in

2012. Okay, enough with my rant, let's look at some numbers. After a monster (and power-filled) debut in 2011 (9 homers in 171 plate appearances, .287 ISO), Lawrie's power numbers took a severe hit last year. He hit just 2 more homers despite earning 365 more plate appearances and posted a very disappointing .132 ISO. The lack of power can be directly attributed to Lawrie's GB rate growing from 38.1% to 50.2%. I think that was just a symptom of a bigger problem, though - Lawrie's over aggressiveness. Lawrie swung at 48.3% of the pitches he saw last year, compared to 40.1% in 2011. In particular, he swung at 9 percent more pitches outside of the strike zone and also made more contact on these types of pitches than he did in the year before. In other words, he was putting pitcher's pitches in play, and the result was a lot of harmless ground balls. Given Lawrie's astounding 2011 season (had a .308 ISO in AAA before getting called up) and his career minor league walk rates (always at least 1.5% points higher than the 6.2 mark he posted in 2012), it's way too early to write the 23 YO off. He's not going to hit his ceiling right away in 2013, but a nice bounce back is in store. Look for Lawrie to adjust his approach at the plate and be more patient, with an across the board improvement revolving around that. We have Lawrie ranked as the 9th rated 3B projected for a .288 BA, 85 RS, 19 HR, 71 RBI and 18 SB. I think there's some potential growth in the RBI number depending on where he hits in the Jays' lineup.

Legit or a fluke?
Edwin Encarnacion 1B/DH - Edwin Encarnacion broke out in a big way in 2012 and there are a variety of reasons to believe it was not a fluke. For starters, Edwin has always had a power profile that screamed upside. His career FB rate is 45.3%, and he has a career HR/FB rate of 13.1%. Also, Edwin's plate discipline has been improving each year with the Blue Jays as he has posted EYE's of .48/.56/89 over the last three seasons. Given Encarnacion's propensity to hit fly balls, the Rogers Centre being extremely favorable for right handed homers and his improving plate discipline, he should once again post really solid power numbers. However, a full on repeat is unlikely. While it's possible Encarnacion maintains the 49.5 FB rate from last year, that number is likely at its peak. Meanwhile Encarnacion's HR/FB rate of 18.7% was also likely a career high given that his career mark is 13.1% and previous high (not counting shortened rookie season) was 15.1%. In terms of batting average, Encarnacion has settled in at an 85% contact rate over the past 3 seasons which is very favorable for a power hitter. This should help him from tailing off too much, but there will be some regression. For example, Encarnacion's abnormally high infield hit percentage in 2012 (13.4%, career mark is 7.5%) inflated his BA by about 18 points.

Kansas City Royals
Moose Tacos
Mike Moustakas 3B - Moustakas' sophomore year was a mixed bag. On the negative side, he failed to improve upon his below average 6% BB rate and actually saw his K rate grow by 6 percentage points. He also saw his LD rate drop by 4 percentage points. On the positive side, Moustakas made strides in his power skills. He saw his ISO increase from .104 to .171 thanks to a shrinking GB/FB rate (dropped from .93 to .68) and increased HR/FB rate (more than doubled from 4.2% to 9%). Overall, the positives outweighed the negatives. So what to expect in 2012? I think we see an across the board improvement. Given Moustakas' past, I believe that the contact rate improves which should help the BA. In the power department, Moustakas is already elevating the ball enough to be successful, and as our projections software notes, there is room for improvement in his HR/FB rate. We have Moustakas pegged for a .270 BA to go along with 27 HR.

Undervalued Closer
Greg Holland RP- We have Holland ranked as a top 10 closer this year. He may be undervalued in some drafts as he does not come with much fanfare, and often times we remember how a player starts (11.37 ERA in April) more so than how he finishes (2.96 season ERA). From a skills perspective, Holland is pretty elite. He has posted FIP's of 2.21 and 2.29 the past two years, a product of posting back to back seasons with a K% higher than 31%. Right there we see Holland's dominance, but the thing that sticks out to me is that Holland is not particularly risky for a power pitcher. He is GB neutral, posting GB rates right around 45% each of the past 2 seasons, and his HR/FB rate is just 6% for his career. And while he is a little wild (4.57 BB/9 last year), Holland did post a 2.85 BB/9 mark in 2011 and has a career K/BB ratio of over 3. Fantistics expects Holland to post his 3rd consecutive sub-3 ERA and to lead all relief pitchers in K's. Also, look for his WHIP to drop as his disappointing 1.37 mark from a year ago was heavily inflated by an unlucky .346 BABIP.

Tampa Bay Rays
Elite Evan
Evan Longoria 3B - If Longoria can put together a fully healthy season, I think we see him challenge for 40 homers. He has always generated good loft (consistently around a .90 GB/FB ratio), and his HR/FB rate has bounced back the past 2 seasons after a down year in 2010, giving him 3 year marks of 11.1/17.6/19.5. Longoria is a patient hitter (always posting double digit walk rates), and I believe his contact rate last season (80.4%) is his floor given his 2011-12 contact rates, below average chase rates and league average swinging strike rates. Given this profile I completely agree with our projections software which notes that Longoria, heading into his age 27 season, is primed for a career year. I see very little performance risk here, and the only downside is some health risk (has hit the DL in each of the past 2 years).

The Price is Right
David Price SP - Heading into last year, many of the Fantistics writers told our audience Price would be undervalued, and sure enough he provided a heavy return on investment. One thing that did catch me by surprise was Price's vastly improved ability to generate ground balls (GB rate grew from 44.3% to 53.1%). This ability was the result of Price adding a cutter to his repertoire. According to pitch/fx data, Price threw a cutter 9.7% of the time after not throwing one at all the previous 3 seasons. The pitch was extremely effective, rating as 1.82 runs above average per 100 pitches - his second best pitch (curveball). Perhaps the best news about Price's increased GB rate is that it did not come at the expense of other skills. In fact, his 24.5 K% and 7.1 BB% were nearly identical to 2011's respective marks of 23.8% and 6.9%. Price's 2012 looks pretty repeatable given his skills, but you should expect some rise in ERA (LOB% was 5 points higher than his career mark) and consequently a few less wins.Around the League

Oscar Taveras OF (STL) - Taveras hit a grand slam yesterday off of Jacob Turner. While I don't put much stock into Spring Training stats, I figured it was a nice segue to talk about our awesome Prospect Central. Members get top 50 prospect rankings for both hitters and pitchers from David Regan and in depth prospect profiles from Lou Blasi. Taveras is currently our 4th ranked prospect hitter. David believes Taveras, who hit .321/.380/.572 at AA last season, will start the season at AAA but should arrive sometime this year, noting that he has All-Star potential.

Carlos Santana C (CLE) - I am extremely high on Carlos Santana heading into this year. I think there's a lot of growth in his BA given an improved LD rate in 2012 (19.1%) and an extremely mature batting EYE (.90). He also cut his K% down from 20.2% to 16.6%, and in particular he struck out just 13.1% of the time over the season's second half, during which he hit .281 with a .217 ISO. If Santana builds upon that second half and sees an uptick in HR/FB rate, which I think is possible given that his 2012 mark was actually 2 percentage points below his 2010-2012 mark, you could see a .275-30 homer season.

Joey Votto 1B (CIN)- From a skills perspective I think the only safer bet in 2013 than Joey Votto is Miguel Cabrera. Researching for this upcoming season, I was in awe over just how dominant he is. Pre-injury last year, Votto posted a .337 BA that wasn't luck related as he had a 1.11 EYE and a singles average that was actually in line with his career marks. Oh and he had a 30.2 LD%. That is just shocking, and it's not a fluke. Votto posted a 27.5 LD rate the previous year. His grasp of the strike zone is just amazing. His 21.2 chase rate and 6.9 swinging strike rate, mean that Votto is being very selective and when he gets his pitch he isn't missing it. I'm so confident in Votto's abilities that I actually think our current projection (.319-32 HR) is a safe one as Votto has more upside beyond those numbers than he does downside below it.

Matt Garza SP (CHC) - Temper your expectations for Garza a little bit. He was originally expected to be ready by Opening Day but in comments he made yesterday it sounded like Garza would start the season on DL. Garza has been very solid performance wise since moving to the NL, posting back to back years with a K/BB ratio of at least 3 and moving from a FB risky pitcher to neutral/slightly a GB pitcher (46.3 and 47.3 GB rates the past two seasons).

Carlos Beltran OF (STL) - I would be really cautious on where you choose to draft Beltran. He tailed off significantly last season, posting a .313 wOBA in the second half after a really hot start (.388 wOBA in the first half). Given that drop off and his age (36), expect Beltran to regress. For instance, his 19.9 HR/FB rate was way higher than his previous 3 year marks (10.8/9.6/12.9) and is likely unsustainable.

Freddie Freeman 1B (ATL) - I always thought Freeman would just be a so-so first baseman: serviceable but not that special. Well, I was wrong. Looking at Freeman's skills there is a lot of potential here. He absolutely scorched the ball last year (26 LD rate) and saw his GB/FB rate dip down to 1.01 from 1.23 the previous season, while maintaining a solid 14.8 HR/FB rate. Those three factors working in conjunction give Freeman the power potential I previously didn't think he had, and his improving plate discipline (simultaneous increase in walk rate and decrease in K rate last season) limits his chances of busting.

Jered Weaver SP (LAA)- I am not as high on Weaver as our projections software is as I'm a little scared by his big ERA-xFIP gap (almost 1.5 runs difference) and concerned over a declining K rate the past 2 seasons (25.8%/21.4/19.2). With that said, I feel like I've written this blurb about Weaver each of the past 2 off seasons only to have him put up ace numbers time and time again. I'm just more comfortable with the other top 10 pitchers.

Ivan Nova SP (NYY) - If you are looking for a late round upside flier at SP, Nova might be your guy. Despite an ugly 5.02 ERA, he flashed decent skills (20.5 K%, 2.73 K/BB ratio) which gave him an xFIP of 3.92. He's also someone that you can play splits with. Nova's Achilles heel last year was the HR ball. However, his HR/9 of 1.27 on the road was much better than his dreadful 1.77 mark at home in the hitter friendly Yankee Stadium.

Jon Lester SP (BOS) - Lester is the type of bounce back candidate I like to take a chance on if the price is right. The reason for this is Lester has more than one "out" so to speak. There's room for a bounce back in skills as his K/9 of 7.28 was much lower than his previous three year marks: 9.96/9.74/8.55. Clearly there's a downward trend so a full bounce back isn't expected but a spike may still occur. Even if his skills don't bounce back, though, Lester's fantasy stats should improve. Last year he was unlucky in all three "luck" categories: a LOB% 7.2 points below his career mark, BABIP 11 points above his career mark and a HR/FB% 3.8 points above his career mark. Lester's xFIP of 3.82 actually wasn't far off from his 2011 xFIP of 3.62, although it should be pointed out that some, but not all, of Lester's failures in the "luck" categories can be attributed to his decreased dominance.

OF/3B Martin Prado ARI Solid 90% contact rate and 1.65 GB/FB rate makes him a legit .300 hitter. RS% was deflated thanks to those around him last season, but that should trend up this year in Arizona.

OF Matt Holliday STL We're starting to see an age related decline in production as he enters his 33rd year. His FPI has steadily decreased since 2009 (.77,.76,.73,.70). additionally Balls it into Play Success was inflated last year (.279).
OF Matt Joyce TB Will need to improve verses LHP (.330 SLG) before he can become a legit everyday player. An oblique injury limited his power stroke by mid season. His poor contact rate (76%) affects his batting average as does his .87 GB/FB ratio. Until he can start hitting LHP, primary value only exists in Daily leagues.

OF Matt Kemp LAD An injury cost Kemp a huge portion of the 1st half. Open the season in a much better and balanced lineup that should expand all of his fantasy categories. Solid 11.7 XBH% and elite .54 power%.

OF Melky Cabrera Tor The roids explain the jump from 7% to 10% XBH rate in '11/'12. Cabrera excellent contact rate of 87% will likely remain, but his .330 BA, 60+ XBH, 80+ RBIs are probably out of the question.

OF Michael Bourn CLE We would expect him to see more SB opportunities, but to do so he's going to have to improve on his SB% from 2012...which was 76%. I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit 60 SBs again, the Indians won't spend the $ if they don't expect the same.

OF Michael Brantley CLE Excellent gap power, but doesn't have enough power to drive the HRs. Consider that the average distance of his 6 HRs last year was 379 feet. SB ratio isn't impressive (12 of 21) either. Still developing at 25, but not much from a fantasy perspective in 2013.

OF Michael Cuddyer COL Was on pace for a 25HR/100RBI season before the injury that sidelined him for the 2nd half of '12. Comeback season projected

OF Michael Morse SEA Morse battled through a preseason injury and finished the 2nd half strongly (15/49/.291). At 31, he's still within his prime, however his BHIP appears inflated (.304) and he has a subpar contact rate (76%)...AVG is at risk.

OF Michael Saunders SEA Nice pop in bat (10.5 XBH rate) is tempered by his poor contact rate (76%) / 24% K rate. Won't hit for average, but has made a concerted effort to draw more walks (7.8% in '12) and improved slightly against RHP. Perk here is the 20+ SBs, and he's likely on his way to a 20+ HR season in '13 if he can maintain his batting average above 240.

OF Mike Trout LAA Simply the best rookie season that many of have seen in our lifetime. Consider that despite missing almost all of April, he finished the season with 30 HRs, with 123 Runs Scored! Now before we elect him as a HOFer, we're going to consider what's working against him in 2013: 1. His 21% HR/FB rate is supported by his 410 distance/105 batted ball speed, but definitely on the high end. Consider that he only hit 29 in 3 minor league seasons! 2. His .330 BHIP rate is considered on the lucky side and it heavily influenced his .326 BA. 3. Sophomore Slump?: According to pitch FX, Trout crushed just about every type of pitch last season...except for Curveballs where he was a +2...expect more curveballs in 2013. What's working for Trout: 1. He's only 21! As much as he's simply an amazing talent, he's awfully difficult to project upward based on his off the chart 2012 campaign.

OF Moises Sierra TOR Not ready for prime time, Sierra has big time power but has high K rates with poor contact ratios as evidenced by his 69% rate during 147 Abs for the Jays last year. Optimally needs another year of minor league action to straighten that out.

OF Nate McLouth BAL No longer considered a power source ('09 - 20 HR), the Orioles are going to give Nate an everyday job as their likely leadoff hitter....despite a 290 OBP in '12. Obvious risk to remain there if he doesn't increase that to a .330. Encouraging was his 12:1 SB/CS ratio...might gather 20+ if he can maintain everyday role.

OF Nelson Cruz TEX Struggled in 1st half thanks to poor contact rate in 1st half. Looked much better in the 2nd half, but still hasn't made that transition in converting more XBHs into HRs. 13.9XBH% in 2nd Half, yet only 13 HRs. Still has potential to hit 30+with 100+ RBI, even though PEDs link hangs over him as he enters 2013.

OF Nick Markakis BAL Was on his way to a career year until injuries (hamate/thumb) sidetracked him. 91% contact rate and 1.33 GB/FB ratio makes him a legit 290-300 hitter.

OF Nick Swisher CLE RBI% and RS% are sure to head downward now that he's moving out a more productive lineup. Additionally he may find it difficult to reach 25 HRs now that he's out of Yankee Stadium. Consider that his average HR distance last year was only 388 ft

[Mitchell88]

This year it will take Trout 55 days to make what Arod makes in one day of not playing, what BS just heard that on sportscenter

[stevenash]

Nelson Cruz- TEX- OF- Cruz woke up with chest soreness yesterday and spent the day in the hospital undergoing tests. If the stress test he had went well then he will be released and back on track for joining the Dominican Republic team for the World Baseball Classic. It is believed that the soreness he experienced is all muscular and not involving the heart muscle.

With 2012 being his first season ever of over 600 PAs, any health concern regarding Cruz has to be factored in. At age 33 and with PED questions outstanding, he can't really be counted on for high flying numbers from the corner outfield.


Jurickson Profar- TEX- SS- No other team could pry Profar from the Rangers over the course of the winter although apparently several tried. Profar is ranked as one of the top 10 prospects by most rookie watchers. He hasn't hit any higher than .286 at any level but just turned 20 a few days ago. Profar projects to be a consistent hitter with 15-20 homers at the SS position. The big question is when he will get to play in the majors. He isn't pushing Elvis Andrus out of the way and the possibility of Ian Kinsler moving to first to make room on the other side of second base died a quick death in the offseason. Profar may start at AAA this year, where he has never played before, but he will be back with the Rangers before long if he does.


Nolan Reimold- BAL- OF- Reimold started off hot last year, slugging 5 homers in just 67 bats in April. Then he was done for the season with a neck injury. This was nothing new for Reimold, who is one of those guys who has gotten a new first name, as in the Fragile Nolan Reimold. Yesterday he hit his first homer of the spring in his third start, but had to come out with a sore shoulder. If Reimold can stay in the lineup he can be a plus in the homer department, either in the outfield or as DH if Nate McLouth gets significant playing time in the field. Reimold's health is a big "if," however. He will probably not throw for the next couple of days, which makes DH a more likely spot for him on a longer term basis.


Jason Hammel- BAL- P- Hammel had a strong Grapefruit League outing yesterday, throwing 27 strikes in his 39 pitches. He made some large strides last year in moving from Colorado to Baltimore, most notably a rise in K/9 from 4.97 to 8.62. He had knee injury issues but seems to be past them. Hammel will likely be the Opening Day starter for Baltimore and build on his success of last year.


Johnny Hellweg- MIL- P- Hellweg was part of the bounty Milwaukee received from parting with Zack Greinke. He is a hard thrower
who has had control issues. Hellweg walked 75 in 139.2 IP at AA in 2012 but also struck out 105 batters. He has impressed early this spring, throwing 4 scoreless innings so far. The Brewers are seriously considering taking Hellweg north with them, probably in a relief role. That might be a little too much too soon unless he has harnessed his impressive stuff almost overnight. Hellweg could probably benefit from time as a regular starter at AAA.


Wily Peralta- MIL- P- Peralta didn't hurt his top prospect status with his brief time in the majors last season, posting an ERA of 2.48 in 6 games, 5 of them starts. He is almost certain to be part of the Milwaukee rotation this season and will contribute strikeouts. With a high ground ball ratio, Peralta is likely to keep his ERA a plus. Expect Peralta to be one the top rookie fantasy pitchers this year.


Mark Prior- CIN- P- Prior signed a minor league contract with Cincinnati, putting him and former manager Dusty Baker back in the same organization. Prior has been trying to come back for years, since undergoing reconstructive shoulder surgery in 2007. Last year he had a 3.96 ERA and 13.68 K/9 in 19 games of relief for AAA Pawtucket, covering 25 IP. Those positive numbers are countered by a BB/9 of 8.28, BABIP of .234 and FIP of 5.24. The odds are slim for Prior returning to the majors, much less to the heady production of his early career, even if Baker is cheering him on.


Danny Espinosa- WAS- 2B- Espinosa continues his recuperation from a torn rotator cuff. He opted to do rehab instead of surgery. The early results aren't great, as he is 2-for-12 in his first 5 Grapefruit League outings. But it is only the first 5 games. If Espinosa is healthy enough he can be in the 20/20 club from the middle infield. He might have made it last year if he didn't have the shoulder issue for the last month.


Josh Hamilton- LAA- OF- Hamilton slugged his first homer of the spring and in a game as an Angel. Looking at the "small sample size" department, Hamilton homered 4 times in 17 games against the Angels last year, all of them coming in Arlington. He hit 2 homers in Anaheim in 2011, giving him a total of 2 homers in 17 games in Anaheim the past two years. Hamilton has hit 5 homers in 13 games against the Angels in Arlington in that same span. He will be trading his home parks, which looks like a minus, and swapping the Angels for the Rangers as opposing pitchers. That's likely to be a wash. I may be looking at this through the bias of a Rangers' fan, but I think that Hamilton will have difficulty putting up the same numbers in his new surroundings.


Roy Halladay- PHI- P- Halladay had another encouraging outing, allowing 1 run on 3 hits and a walk with 3 strikeouts in 2.2 IP. It wasn't Cy Young material, but Halladay felt good after the game. He appears to be in better condition than last year when he battled a variety of nagging injuries. Halladay threw fewer than 220 IP for the first time since 2005 last year. If he continues to feel comfortable and show results this spring he could actually be considered almost a sleeper.


Carl Crawford- LAD- OF- Crawford has been shut down from throwing and hitting for about a week due to what is being called "minor elbow nerve irritation." It doesn't directly involve his surgically repaired ligament. It does, however, increase the chance that Crawford will begin the season on the DL.


Jose Valverde- P- Valverde will not pitch in the World Baseball Classic. He has opted out of the Dominican Republic team for an unspecified "personal issue." Valverde is still without a contract and won't be able to use the Classic as an audition.


Sean Burnett- LAA- P- Burnett should see his first Cactus League action next week. He has been slowed since experiencing lower back stiffness on February 18th. Burnett should be throwing a bullpen session this weekend and might have another before seeing game action. He is still expected to be ready by Opening Day.


Carlos Gonzalez- COL- OF- CarGo hit a long double down the left field line and then slugged a homer to right yesterday. Manager Walt Weiss feels good about Gonzalez using the whole field. What might be just as encouraging would be for him to increase his contact numbers. While CarGo has seen fewer pitches inside the strike zone during his years in Colorado his contact rates have also dipped each season. While his walk rate increased from 8.9%in 2011 to 9.7% last year he seemed to not make as good contact as he did the year before. While his GB% remained almost the same (48.4% to 48.9%) balls that he hit in the air in 2011 (33.6% FB rate down to 29.5%) stayed flatter (18.0% LD rate up to 21.7%.) With a little more loft CarGo could hit a lot of those fantasy projections that were made before last season.


Frank Herrman- CLE- P- Herrman has been shut down indefinitely. There is an issue with a sprained elbow ligament. It sounds as if Tommy John surgery may be in Herrmann's future. He had pitched well during some time with the Indians late last season and was hoping to nail down a bullpen spot.


Chris Perez- CLE- P- The Cleveland closer will be shut down for a week to ten days due to a shoulder strain. This definitely knocks him out of the World Baseball Classic. It also makes him a candidate to start the regular season on the DL. If so, Vinnie Pestano will likely get any early save opportunities for the Indians.

OF Chris Young Good Contact Rate (87%), but poor GB/FB ratio (.60), make Young a risk to hit over .250 every season. XBH% of 11.7 remains intact as elite, but conversion to HRs will be at risk in new home ballpark (Oakland). Stud Daily play, as he hits lefties at a much higher clip (.552 LHP in '12)

OF Coco Crisp Still maintaining excellent SB/CS ratio: 39:4. Only risk is PT.

OF Cody Ross From a fantasy perspective, his value is only prominent against LHP (.636 Slg vs .424 Slg). Still has high K% which saps his BA, and doesn't steal many bases. Limited upside other than daily leagues.

OF Colby Rasmus Continues to struggle verses LHP (292 slg vs 445 vs RHP). Upper shelf batted ball speed (107) leaves us at a loss on why more of his fly balls don't go for HRs. Average stays depressed due to his poor contact rate 76%, but there is considerable reason to believe that we'll see a spike up to the 250-260 zone this year with more RS.

OF Corey Hart Hart Slugged 244 points higher at home than on the road, regardless the power for Hart has remained constant through his peak years. More of the same for 2013, with a uptick in BA. Expected to return in late April from knee proceedure.

OF Curtis Granderson Granderson continues to capitalize on the short porch in Yankee Stadium, averaging only 383 feet on his 43 HRs last season (slugs 87 points higher at home). Additionally his high 24% HR/FB rate was a career high, and likely to regress in 2012. The category that should see a bounce back is his BA which was unlucky by 10-15 points based on his historical norms on BHIP. Preseason Update: Grandy to miss 5-6 weeks to open season with broken forearm.

OF Darin Mastroianni It's all about the speed here. Excellent SB ratio last season (25 for 29), in only 212 ABs. Could be an extremely valuable commodity if he can secure a starting job....and it appears that he'll have a good chance....especially if he can maintain a 85% contact rate.

OF David DeJesus Struggles big time against LHP (.151 Slg last season), doesn't offer much for us fantasy folks as he simply doesn't get on base enough, doesn't steal many bases, and has sub par power.

OF David Murphy May see everyday role as he adjusted well to LHP last season (427) and the Rangers no longer have a backlog of talent in the OF. Raised the stakes with his 10.3 XBH rate last season and solid .48 PW%. Solid 83% Contact rate, but his Singles rate was elevated last season which should settle him in the 280 range.

OF Dayan Viciedo Red Flag: Extreme 20% HR/FB rate from a season ago, elevated his HR totals. Additionally he struggled against RHP (.365 SLG vs .633 SLG). Unless he can start hitting off of RHP, LHP will start forcing him to chase as he doesn't have good plate discipline. I may be on an island saying this, but 2013 might be a transition season for Viciedo.

OF Delmon Young Young is still only 27 YO, and his PW% is trending upward, there was an underrepresentation in his RBI% (13), but his RS% is representative of a hitter who doesn't walk.

OF Denard Span He's not likely to ever hit double digit HRs, but Span is a legit 290-300 BA hitter based on his 92% contact rate with 2:1 GB/FB ratio. There was a decline in his SB output, but it's not enough to keep him from being a 20 SB guy again in '13. He's a legit OBP guy that's also going to score runs.

[Grits n' Gravy]

Lots of good stuff Nash. The fat guy who got fired as fantasy mod is keeping close watch on some 10 year old little leaguers in his neighborhood.