[stevenash]

Lots of good stuff Nash. The fat guy who got fired as fantasy mod is keeping close watch on some 10 year old little leaguers in his neighborhood.

Holy Amber alert Batman

[Bcatswin]

Good starters are worth more than great closers.

[Bcatswin]

This is a damn good thread. God job Nash!

[stevenash]

P Brandon McCarthy Brandon's move to Chase field is going to be a difficult transition for a FB pitcher (38% GB rate in '12). Consider that his strength (sub par 8.1 HR/FB rate) is going to make it difficult for him to maintain an ERA under 3.50 in 2013. Consider that his SLG% outside of the coliseum was an un-wieldy .457 SLG. There'll likely be a honeymoon period, but then health becomes a concern.

P Brandon Morrow Posted an unsustainable 81% Strand Rate, lucky .248 BABIP. Don’t buy into the 2.60 ERA/1.11 WHIP.
P Brett Anderson Positives include extreme 60% ground ball rate, Control rate 1.8 BB/9. Negatives include lucky BABIP in limited activity, pedestrian K/I (.71), lucky HR/FB rate, and health issues that have dogged him for 3 years. Will this be the year for Anderson?
P Brett Myers Heads back to starting rotation, but figures to be an average pitcher with a 1.30ish WHIP with 4+ ERA.
P Bronson Arroyo Arroyo pitched well last year, but we're starting to see a pattern of on and off seasons, which is typical for an aging pitcher.

P Bruce Chen Drop in Strand Rate (.67), expanded his ERA quite a bit in '12. 33 HRs last season were a career high, he's not fooling anyone at this point with a 88% contact rate. Dicey pitcher heading into last stage of career
P Bud Norris Tossed 10 Quality Starts in the 2nd half, but received no run support (2 Wins). Team support is not going to increase this season either.

P C.J. Wilson Production has been on a 4 year decline. Last season his RS% fell to .74 which bloated his ERA. Horrible 2H with 3 disaster starts hurt his overall numbers. Fundamental skills still in place for comeback.

P Carlos Villanueva His K/I rate kicked back up last season (.97), but his heavy fly ball rate 44% is going to continue to threaten his ERA and Win totals in Wrigley.

P CC Sabathia Despite posting a better WHIP last season (1.14), CC's average Fastball lost 1.5 MPH (92.3) last year and is no longer a + pitch. His other pitches are still reliable, but look for hitters to start looking for more of them moving forward.

P Chad Billingsley Ligament damage looms over his head as he starts the 2013 season.. Billingsley's production has been on a straight decline over the last 4 seasons. Part of the problem is his inability to average more than 6 innings per start.

P Chris Capuano 18 Quality Starts I n 2012, but there was a considerable drop-off in 2H (4.59 ERA/1.34) which could point to shoulder issues (as he's had problems with this in the past).

P Chris Sale All of his peripherals are in line, struggled slightly in the 2nd half but that's to be expected from a pitcher who increased his workload by 120 innings last season. The 17 wins from a season ago were inflated thanks to an outpouring of run support (deserved 13), so expect some regression there.

[stevenash]

Gordon Beckham (2B) CWS- After three seasons of disappointment, maybe Gordon Beckham's value has dropped enough now that he will be a bargain once again. Beckham showed the best contact rate of his career in 2012, and ended the year on a high note with a substantially improved walk rate and ISO during the season's final month. His BABIP was at least 40-50 points on the unlucky side of things, so some positive regression there and a .255/18/70 season doesn't seem unreasonable to expect. Still just 26, I don't think there's a ton of upside here, but I think Beckham could certainly provide average value at 2B if things fall right, and I'll bet he'll be available for cheaper than that in most leagues.

John Danks (SP) CWS - Danks is recovering nicely from shoulder surgery, as the 27 year old was able to make his spring debut as scheduled yesterday. The next day or two will be key to determine that there are no setbacks, but it looks like Danks could be ready to resume his career as a solid mid-rotation starter, offering solid albeit unspectacular production across the board.

Melky Mesa (OF) NYY - The darkhorse to start the season in the Yankee OF this spring is Melky Mesa, a 26 year old toolsy OF that has taken a long time to work his way through the farm system. Mesa spent five years in rookie and A-ball, showing some decent power and speed but struggling to make enough contact to progress. The past few seasons have shown Mesa making some strides in that area even as he plays against higher-level competition, and last season Mesa was able to post 23 homers and 22 steals between AA and AAA while cutting his K rate for basically the first time in his career. With the alternatives available to replace Curtis Granderson for the first 4-6 weeks of the season ranging from unproven to ancient, Mesa has a chance to be the guy with a solid spring. It's unlikely that a high AVG will ever be in the cards for him, but the power/speed combination is intriguing enough to make him a possible reserve round pick in the deepest of formats already. If he wins the job, he could provide useful (although high risk) production as a 5th OF in deeper mixed leagues and AL-only formats.


Phil Hughes (SP) NYY - Hughes had a very solid 2012 that was masked by some park effects and HR issues, but I'm more impressed by the improved velocity, BB rate, and K rate than I am disturbed by the gopher balls. The park effects aren't going anywhere, which likely limits Hughes' ceiling to that of a #3 starter, but as long as his back is healthy (he was diagnosed with a bulging disk two weeks ago and just began throwing again) I expect him to reach that ceiling again in 2013.


Jesus Montero (C) SEA - The Mariners appear to be prepared to expand Jesus Montero's role as the starting C this season, rather than DH him even more than in 2012. That could be good news, as Montero hit 310/343/498 last year when playing behind the plate, a far cry from his overall line of 260/298/386. Montero still has loads of potential, and I think if anything he's been a bit underrated now after a subpar rookie campaign. I expect the 23 year old to provide top-10 value from the catching position this year, and I still think the chance of stardom is there over the next two or three seasons for the same reasons that existed last year: excellent power, solid contact rate relative to power, above average control of the strike zone. Montero is definitely a guy I would make it a point to target this season.


Hisashi Iwakuma (SP) SEA - Outside of one start right before the break last year, Iwakuma spent the first half as a reliever and the second half as a starter. Since he's penciled in as either the #2 or #3 starter for the M's in 2013, let's look at those 2nd half stats: 90 IP, 2.50 ERA, 25 BB, 74 SO. Iwakuma managed 8 wins against 4 losses pitching for a fairly pathetic offense, and lest you think the scheduling was kind for some reason he faced the Yankees twice, the Rangers 3 times, and the Angels 4 times in the second half alone. Perhaps he took some time to acclimate to the US, perhaps he just likes starting....who knows? The fact is that his walk rate dropped substantially when he moved to the rotation, his K rate actually increased, and his HR declined from disastrous to acceptable. I think he has a very solid chance of providing at least #3 starter value this season, and with the improvements in the Mariner offense 15 wins isn't far-fetched at all.


Matt Carpenter (1B/2B/3B) STL - The Cardinal infield is a mess right now with Rafael Furcal being shut down indefinitely with elbow pain. That leaves Descalso, Carpenter, and Wong battling at 2B with Cedeno and Pete Kozma tussling at SS. Wong is the long-term play out of that group, but for 2013 the guy that could provide the most fantasy value is pretty clearly Carpenter. Carpenter has logged the most innings at 2B of that group thus far, and while he isn't the most fluid you'll ever see there he has been at least adequate to this point. His bat is the key, as he is a .280-.300 hitter with average power and "better than zero" speed. I'm not sure the Cardinal offense can withstand two slap hitters up the middle, so I'm banking on the fact that Carpenter will play enough to justify a slot in most formats this spring. He could be a steal as a late-round flyer.


Jean Segura (SS) MIL - Segura is another player that looks a bit underrated to me for 2013, as he definitely held his own late last year in his first exposure to MLB. Segura will turn 23 in two weeks, and with his .311 career minor league average and excellent speed, he could easily be a top-half contributor at SS right out of the gate. There is some power there as well, as evidenced by his .151 ISO as a 20 year old in the Midwest League a few years ago, but as yet we haven't seen much of it due to a 65% GB rate last year. The power will probably take a few years to exhibit itself at this level, but Segura should assist you in AVG, R, and SB right away, and if the power shows up early that's just a nice bonus.


Colby Rasmus (OF) TOR - Will this finally be the year that Rasmus delivers on the hype? It wouldn't be surprising, as the focus will be off of him to a large extent with all of the offseason acquisitions that Toronto made. Rasmus had a BABIP about 70 points below expectations last season, taking a mediocre season and making it look worse, and although he doesn't run all that much anymore I still think he can provide #3 OF value: something along the lines of .255 with 25-30 homers and 85-100 RBI sounds right. There is some upside as well, both in talent and in situation...hitting lower in the order this year may provide him with a few more opportunities to run, and this offense may be even better than expected as well. It's tough to keep going back to the well with this guy, but I would target him again in 2013.


Tyler Greene (2B/SS) HOU - If you don't mind punting AVG, Tyler Greene is a nice little sleeper this year at SS. He should at least share, if not outright win, the starting SS job in Houston, and in that park his 15-20 HR power should play very well. He also has the speed to steal 20 bases, so if the possibility of a .220-20-20 player intrigues you, Greene is your man. He still strikes out far too much for most teams, but with Marwin Gonzalez as the only real alternative at SS, I expect the Astros to just deal with it.

Oakland A's offense - The Athletics spent most of the offseason stockpiling offensive assets, so now that we enter March, it's time to figure out which players might be draftable and which ones simply won't play enough to help. As best as I can tell, the A's have 6 IF, 2 C, and 5 OF that warrant playing time. I'm guessing Cespedes, Reddick, and Moss against RHP are locked in. Jaso should get most of the time behind the dish. They seem committed to Nakajima at SS. That still leaves Smith, Young, Crisp, and Norris for two spots (CF and DH), with Lowrie, Donaldson, Sizemore, and Weeks battling it out at 2B and 3B. Oh, and Grant Green is hanging around as well. I can't help thinking that the first four are the only ones that will have consistent value until injuries strike, although Crisp's speed always makes him a must-draft at some point. I like Norris but there's little room for him, I like Sizemore but he and Weeks seem to be in a dead heat at 2B so he's awfully risky, and I like Lowrie but the crowded situation plus his inability to stay healthy will probably have me shying away. Reddick is likely to decline a bit coming off of a career year, and the park won't help Chris Young much (and neither will the expected lack of playing time). That's about as succinct as I can make it without it turing into a thesis, and without a couple more weeks of clarity. Suffice it to see that outside of the first four names, they should all be end-game plays at this point except for Crisp.


John Lannan (SP) PHI - Lannan seems like a guy that might succeed in the difficult environment in Philadelphia. With his excellent GB rates combined with a solid offense, I expect Lannan to establish a career high in wins this year. His peripherals (outside of GB rate) are rarely good, so he probably won't be a help elsewhere, but as a 5th starter in deeper leagues he isn't a bad option this year.


Chris Archer (SP) TB - Chris Archer seems to have made enough control improvements to have a solid chance of winning one of the back-end spots in Tampa Bay, and if he does he's a ROY candidate in my mind. His nasty fastball/slider combo has enabled him to strike out more than a batter an inning in his pro career thus far (7 years worth), and he's not as susceptible to the long ball as many hard throwers. Huge upside here.


Luis Valbuena (3B) CUB - Valbuena is locked in a battle with Ian Stewart for the Cubs 3B job, and although he's yet to show it during five big league trials the 27 year old does have a bit to offer offensively. He's hit over .300 in each of the past 5 seasons at AAA, and he has developed 15-HR power as he's matured. Last year's preposterously low BABIP (.260 despite a 21.2% LD rate) should adjust itself upward if he gets the PT, enough so that I think he could be at least average across the board. As a late round pick, you could definitely do worse....assuming he does win the job. Ian Stewart has major contact issues and doesn't seem to have much pop outside of Colorado, but Valbuena is guaranteed nothing just yet.


Tim Lincecum (SP) SF - Despite projections, in my leagues everyone seems down on Lincecum for 2013. I understand to some extent...velocity was down significantly and even when he improved in the 2nd half, his ERA was still in the 3.85 range. Command and control were both a bit off, although the K rate remained excellent. He has so many moving parts mechanically that it would be easy to put this in the "needs adjustment" category, and perhaps that's all it is. Obviously, winning leagues is all about finding upside wherever you can, and you have to take risks to do it. Lincecum is a possible #1 arm, so if his value in your league has dropped to the places that I've seen thus far, he is certainly a gamble that I'd be inclined to take. I expect an ERA somewhat worse than his peak years, say around the mid-3.00's, but with the huge K rates and solid win totals that should be just fine.

OF Norichika Aoki Aoki proved to be a solid contact hitter (88% contact rate), with a heavy GB rate 2:1. Such splits correlate well with a legit 280-300 hitter. The 9.8 XBH rate was a present surprise, and although he's not a HR hitter, these extra hits boost his RS totals. The 20 for 25 in the SB department (2nd half) makes him a worthy fantasy commodity.

OF Peter Bourjos Expected to have the starting everyday job for the Angels, but a hip injury is limiting his 25/25 potential. Still young, with power potential coming in future years.

OF Quintin Berry Speed guy with not much pop...which is ok, but to see more PT this season he's going to have to get on base. Only registered a 77% contact rate last season, and you need something more from a slap hitter. If he can work his way up to a 340 or 350 OBP, he could become FT. If he was full time he could be a 40-50 SB guy (21 for 21 last season).

OF Rajai Davis As of publishing Raj moves to a 4th Offer role, which will limit his Abs and SB opportunities.

OF Raul Ibanez Huge Home/Road Splits, hit .183 Slug higher when playing in Yankee Stadium. Only a platoon option as he only slugged .237 against LHP last season. 41 YO!

OF Roger Bernadina Great speed, but he's a #4 heading into the preseason. Could be a 40-50 SB guy with regular PT.

OF Ryan Braun Topped his steroid allegation tarred 2011 MVP season with more HRs and RBIs. Super elite 13.4 XBH% with insane .778 SLG against LHP. Clearly a top talent at his position.

OF Ryan Ludwick Had a great '12 campaign, seeing his PW% rise from .36 to .53. However without any increase in his EYE (.43) and at 35, we look at this more as an aberration. RBI% (.19) was also inflated.

OF Seth Smith Very poor results against LHP (275 SLG) keeps Smith limited as a platoon player.

OF Shane Victorino Continues to struggle verses RHP (.329 SLG). Had a career worst 7.9 XBH% last season with only a 9% RBI rate and .35 R%. Both of these indicators should rise this season in new home.

OF Shin-Soo Choo Choo's XBH rate came back to historical norms last season (10.2), but that came mostly via doubles. Will have to figure out LHP (.281 SLG), if he is to truly reward fantasy owners. Move to Great American ballpark will aid him on fly balls, but he'll need to reverse his GB/FB ratio (1.83) to truly benefit. RBI% is likely to increase as well.

OF Starling Marte Starling’s motor quickness and hand-to-eye skills. His running game brings plenty of athletic speed to bear but he is still lacking in baseball savvy and instincts, as evidenced by the 24 caught stealings over the last 2 seasons, in the column next to his 45 SBs. He has to develop his power a bit, but that may take awhile because it will likely be the last skill to develop. He has to reign in his zone and learn how to work pitchers. Marte has shown power, registering a 500 slug in both his AA stint and AAA stint, but his biggest hurdle will be making contact in the Bigs. In limited activity last season he posted a subpar 28% K rate with a meager 4% BB rate. Could easily be a 15 HR/25 SB guy with he can maintain an everyday playing job. Prospect Grade - B

[koz-man]

I think we will see Billy Hamilton earlier than expected.
Dusty praising his defense comments has me sold.
I have no problem bringing up a everyday player early, I just hate when a team rushes a pitcher.

[Bcatswin]

I think we will see Billy Hamilton earlier than expected.
Dusty praising his defense comments has me sold.
I have no problem bringing up a everyday player early, I just hate when a team rushes a pitcher.

He has not looked disciplined from the plate though at all...

[Robber]

Teixeira is a bum

Not surprised he's injured

[MexicanStallion]

I think we will see Billy Hamilton earlier than expected.
Dusty praising his defense comments has me sold.
I have no problem bringing up a everyday player early, I just hate when a team rushes a pitcher.

I'm excited for Hamilton, but he needs time. If he is up early, then something bad happened with Choo/Bruce/Ludwick with injuries or being busts. I just expect him up late August/September and see what happens.

[Wulfman14]

tons of good players, i wonder how pujols will perform this year. texas should be the same offensive juggernauts that they have been. i think the giants will have the best pitching again this season.

[playersonly69]

po69 checking in for the daily report.


Is this site going to have a big fantasy league?

[stevenash]

Indians' Third Base - It's the Chiz Kid's Time:Reports out of Cleveland's camp point toward Lonnie Chisenhall getting first crack at the third base job this season with super-sub Mike Aviles waiting in the wings. For the past few years, Chisenhall has been one of the better prospects in a weak farm system for the Tribe. He first got his feet wet at the major league level in 2011. During that season, he got 223 plate appearances and posted a .255/.284/.415 slash line with 7 HRs, but showed little patience as evidenced by his 3% walk rate. Chisenhall spent most of last season in the minors,

tallying a .517 SLG% and .314 batting average while also managing a .268/.311/.430 slash line in 43 major league games (mostly in June and September). At 24-years old, Chisenhall is entering his prime which makes me believe he can improve upon his decent .160-ish ISO at the major league level. I'm also encouraged by his strong 25% LD rate in 2012, which was a 6% improvement over his 2011 mark, and his 9% walk rate in September (hey, it's better than 3%). Chisenhall is not going to set the world on fire in 2013, but in deeper leagues he has a chance to be a solid backup 3B who hits double digit HRs.

Indians' Second Base - Jason Kipnis' Sophomore Season: Over the weekend, manager Terry Francona mentioned potentially hitting Jason Kipnis third in the lineup this season, which would bolster his value and likely put him between Asdrubal Cabrera and Nick Swisher. After playing in 36 major league games in 2011, Kipnis burst onto the fantasy baseball scene last season by clubbing 14 HRs, scoring 86 runs and stealing 31 bases. The steals were most surprising considering Kipnis had only recorded double digit steals once in a minor league season. Kipnis showed good patience for a young hitter by owning a 10% walk rate and made solid contact with a 22% LD rate. He also limited his chase rate to just 24%, meaning the second baseman was very selective at the plate (MLB chase rate average in 2012 was 30%). On the flip side, Kipnis' slash line of .257/.335/.379 wasn't pretty and his ISO was just .122. Looking at his minor league numbers, Kipnis has always shown good patience so he should continue to hold more value in OBP leagues and his minor league power numbers point toward an improvement in both his ISO and SLG% in 2013. As for the spike in steals, that shouts 'outlier' to me, but it's still probably a safe bet to expect 20 or so this season. With second base being a shallow position, Kipnis represents a high floor player who also has the ability to make another performance jump in 2013.

Cardinals' Rotation - Will it be Joe, Trevor or Shelby?: With Chris Carpenterunlikely to return this season, the Cardinals are searching for a 5th starter betweenJoe Kelly, Trevor Rosenthal and phenom prospect Shelby Miller. Kelly is the most experienced of the group, throwing 107 innings in 2012 with a 3.53 ERA, 6.31 K/9 and 0.84 HR/9. Kelly's 4.03 xFIP indicates he was a bit fortunate, but you have to be impressed with his 51% GB mark and 1.88 GB/FB rate. Kelly also has good fastball velocity, averaging a 94 mph heater last season.If the spot goes to Rosenthal, he'll make for an intriguing option. Pitching out of relief in 19 games last season, Rosenthal struck out 25 in 22 innings while posting a 2.78 ERA. That's a small sample, but Rosenthal's minor league stats support his ability to miss bats and limit HRs and walks. He's not as highly touted as Miller, but Rosenthal represents higher upside than Kelly and could be a sleeper if he grabs the role.Finally, there's Miller, who most everyone that follows baseball has heard of at this point. The right hander made his first appearance of the spring this past Saturday after being shut down in mid-February with shoulder soreness (the Cardinals said they were not worried about the injury). He struck out 3 and allowed a solo homer to Ian Desmond in his two innings. While his overall minor league numbers from 2012 aren't pretty (4.74 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 1.58 HR/9), Miller figured out something in August and September as he posted a 3.16 ERA, 36% strikeout rate and 3% walk rate. He has the highest upside of the trio if he can secure the 5th rotation spot and keep it for the season. For now, it appears Kelly is the lead horse as he is the only one of the three candidates who will pitch as a starter in spring training. Rosenthal and Miller will have to make their case from performances out of the bullpen.

Cardinals' Outfield - Jon Jay, Fantasy Sleeper: While everyone knows about the value St. Louis' other two outfielders - Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran - provide, don't overlook the Cardinals' centerfielder because Jon Jay has some nice fantasy upside this season. Jay accumulated 502 plate appearances in 2012, posting an impressive .305/.373/.400 slash line to go along with 19 steals (he was caught 7 times). He owned a solid 22% LD rate and 59% GB rate, which plays well for a guy who's really fast since Jay could beat out grounders hit on the infield. He made excellent contact on his swings (87% contact rate compared to MLB average of 79%) and limited his strikeouts to just 14%. While his .355 BABIP looks high, Jay's MLB career BABIP in 381 games is .348, so I don't expect a ton of regression in 2013. He should also bat leadoff for the Cardinals, which means lots of opportunities for runs and steals. Jay won't be sought after on draft/auction day, but he should be a solid contributor in most league formats this season.

Reds' Closer Situation - Jonathan Broxton Meets Regression?: The Reds should have a very good club this season and made a savvy offseason move to acquire Shin-Soo Choo. That said, the signing of Jonathan Broxton to a 3-year, $21-million deal was likely a poor decision because Broxton's 2012 numbers scream, 'regression to the mean'. With Aroldis Chapman likely heading to the rotation, Broxton has the closer's role locked up for a team that could easily win 90+ games. However, despite coming off a season where he posted a 2.48 ERA and saved 27 games for the Royals and Reds, Broxton's got some red flags. First, his 3.62 xFIP was more than a run above his ERA. Second, he enjoyed an 80% strand rate and struck out just 6.98 batters per game. And third, his fastball velocity remained at 94 mph, after being at 98 mph as recently as 2009. That drop in velocity coincides with strikeout rate that has declined in each of the past three seasons. He reinvented himself as a pitch-to-contact reliever who limited walks and allowed batters to put the ball in play more often. That's not a recipe for consistent success in the closer's role and I expect Broxton to take a step back in 2013.

Reds' Third Base - Todd Frazier has Power: You won't mistake Todd Frazier for a top-5 third baseman this season, but the 27-year old has some real value to add at the hot corner in all league formats. Last season, in 128 games and 465 plate appearances, Frazier cracked 19 HRs and posted an incredibly impressive .225 ISO to go along with a .498 SLG%. He also recorded a respectable .273 batting average and 22% LD rate while showing no significant differences in his RHP/LHP splits (.858 OPS vs. .817 OPS). For all those good signs, there are also some red flags to consider with Frazier. He seemed to tire at the end of last season, slumping badly in September (.176 batting average, .491 OPS). Additionally, the Reds have brought in defensive-slanted Jack Hannahan to potentially eat into Frazier's playing time. Frazier also wasn't exactly the most patient hitter last season, owning a 37% swinging strike rate. However, on the whole, I believe in Frazier's power and his ability to fight off Hannahan for the starting job all season. If you don't obtain one of the top few third baseman, consider targeting Frazier as a late round/low cost value for 2013.

P John Axford MIL- The Brewers' closer saved 35 games last season, but also blew 9 opportunities and finished the year with an ugly 4.67 ERA. However, I see Axford bouncing back this season and being an effective closer once again. In 2012, the biggest issue for Axford was an enormous jump in his HR/9 rate from 0.49 in 2011 to a whopping 1.30 in addition to a 13% increase in his HR/FB rate to 19.6%. Axford had never had such issues keeping the ball in the yard, so I expect some significant, positive regression in 2013. The lefty's velocity remains strong as he posted a 96 mph average on his heater. He also missed a ton of bats as evidenced by his 12.07 K/9 and his xFIP was a solid 3.26. Based on these peripheral stats, Axford should be much better this season.

OF/IF Emilio Bonifacio TOR- The speedster cracked a HR on Saturday for the Blue Jays in his bid to win the second base job from Macier Izturis this spring. While I expect Izturis to ultimately win the job, Bonifacio should still get plenty of ABs as a utility player around the diamond. In 2011, Bonifacio posted a 40-steal season to go along with a .296 batting average and .360 OBP, making him valuable in both BA and OBP leagues. However, before getting injured last season, the former Marlin wasn't nearly as good, owning a .258 batting average and .330 OBP (although he did steal 30 bases in just 64 games). Bonifacio's biggest issue was that he stopped hitting line drives, seeing his LD% drop from 24% in 2011 to just 16% in 2012. This caused his BABIP to fall by 50 points. If he get improve on his LD%, Bonifacio could very well get back into the .270-.280 range with his batting average and have a .350-ish OBP. He's clearly going to be a great source of steals and thus will have at least some value in all league formats.

Aramis Ramirez MIL- Catching up on the weekend games, the Brewers' Aramis Ramirez left Saturday's spring training game with a strained left knee after legging out a double. Milwaukee announced that their third baseman will get an MRI and is considered day-to-day. Ramirez should continue to be an excellent option at the hot corner in 2013. He's coming off a 2012 season where he posted his best ISO (.240) and SLG% (.540) since 2006. The only major concern I have with Ramirez is that his LD% dropped by 5% last season, but his BABIP remained at .310. It's unlikely Ramirez can enjoy a .310 BABIP with a sub-20% LD rate again this season, so he may experience a slight drop in his overall slash line if he is unable to improve his LD rate. Otherwise, at 32-years old, Ramirez just keeps chugging along.

Austin Jackson DET - I've been high on Austin Jackson for the past few years because of his potential to provide a great combination of power and steals. As he enters his year-26 season, I am targeting Jackson earlier in drafts and am willing to pay more him in auctions. Last season, Jackson posted a .300/.377/.479 while hitting 16 HRs and stealing 12 bases. While the low stolen base total was disappointing, our Fantistics projections expect a bounce back in 2013. Jackson swiped 27 and 22 bases in 2011 and 2012, respectively, and we see him getting to 21 again this year. Jackson also continues to improve his walk and strikeout rates, improving the former by 3% while cutting down on the whiffs by 6% to just 21% in 2012. Obviously, more balls in play provide Jackson opportunities for more HRs as well as a higher BA/OBP because of his speed and ability to maintain high BABIPs. We're projecting a 20-20 season with 100+ runs, which makes Jackson a very valuable commodity in any league.

Rafael Furcal STL- The Cardinals shut down Rafael Furcal from all baseball-related activities this weekend due to increasing pain in his right elbow. Up to this point, Furcal had been throwing with limitations and had resumed swinging just last week. He is supposed to get an MRI in the coming days, but this is definitely a bad sign, especially for a team without another decent shortstop option (unless you considered Pete Kozma or Ronny Cedeno decent). At 35-years old, Furcal will continue to be a very risky SS play in all league formats because of his injury risk and declining production. Last season, he posted just a .264/.325/.346 slash line to go along with 12 steals in 121 games. His chase rate also jumped by 5% to 27%, meaning he was going after more pitches outside the strike zone. Even if Furcal's injury isn't significant, there's not much to like in 2013.

Matt Garza CHN- Matt Garza has been sidelined since mid-February with a strained left lat and he experienced tightness while playing catch this weekend. The Cubs decided not to take any chances and have shut down the right hander for a week. He'll likely miss the first month of the season. In 2011, Garza put together an excellent season by owning a 3.32 ERA, 3.19 xFIP and 8.95 K/9. However, aside from that career year, Garza's been much closer to a 4.00 ERA in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2012. He's also only recorded an FIP under 4.00 one time in his big league career. With a whiff rate above 8.00 in three of the past four seasons, Garza certainly has solid fantasy value, but, during that same time frame, he's also allowed 1.11, 1.23 and 1.30 HR/9 rates. Expect Garza to provide an ERA in the high 3.00s and about 170 strikeouts in 2013.

2B Dan Uggla ATL- After owning Dan Uggla in my primary fantasy league for the past four years, I finally cut ties with the Braves' second baseman during this past offseason. I've always appreciated the power Uggla brings to a shallow second base position, but he has too many alarming signs at this point. Uggla hit his first HR of the spring Sunday, but he was just 3 for his first 21 ABs overall. Sure, it's just spring training, but Uggla is coming off a season where his strikeout rate increased by 3%, his SLG% dropped by 69 points and he batted a career-low .220. While he increased his LD% by 5%, Uggla's HR/FB rate fell by 7% to a career-low 11% and he hit just 19 HRs after posting 5 straight 30+ HR seasons. I expect a bounce back in the power in 2013, but doubt he gets back to the upper 20s or low 30s in HRs. At 33-years old, there's quite a bit of risk with taking Uggla this year.

3B Ryan Zimmerman WAS - Ryan Zimmerman made his first appearance this spring in the Nationals' lineup on Sunday when he batted cleanup and was the team's designated hitter. Zimmerman finished 1-for-3. Manager Davey Johnson plans to play Zimmerman every other day until the third baseman can build up enough arm strength to begin taking the field. In 145 games last year, Zimmerman battled shoulder pain but still managed to hit 25 HRs and post a .196 ISO. He also owned a career-best 16% HR/FB rate. Zimmerman should be a very strong fantasy play at third base as long as he stays healthy. He hasn't topped 600 ABs since 2009, so there's definitely some risk here.

KC Wade Davis P- On Sunday, Wade Davis tossed 3 innings and struck out 3 versus the Reds. After back-to-back years as a starter in 2011 and 2012, where he struggled to miss bats and post decent ERAs, Davis was moved to the bullpen in 2012 and thrived. He owned a 2.43 ERA and 3.24 xFIP to go along with an 11.13 K/9, 30% strikeout percentage and 0.64 HR/9. The question for 2013 is whether Davis can translate his success as a reliever to being an effective starter. He's still just 27-years old and was a highly touted prospect for many years, so there's definitely a chance he figures it out. Keep an eye on Davis' performances this spring - he's worth a late round flier in drafts and a few bucks in auctions.

A.J. Pollock OF ARI- Reports out of Diamondbacks' camp indicate that it's increasingly more likely prospect A.J. Pollock will be sent to AAA Reno to begin this season. With Arizona flush with outfielders, including Gerardo Parra, Jason Kubel, Cody Ross and Adam Eaton, there's no room at the inn for Pollock and he'll at least get more ABs in the minors until an injury or trade brings him back to the big league club. Last season in 31 games, Pollock batted .247/.315/.395 with 2 HRs and a steal. In the minors, Pollock has shown excellent speed, swiping 21 and 36 bases the past two seasons while also batting over .300. He may have some fantasy value in the next couple years, but not in 2013.

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P Ryan Dempster Dempster is more of a fly ball pitcher and moving the AL east is going to prop up the HR allowed totals in 2013.Additionally last year he had a .75 Strand Rate which is elevated based on his skill set. Don't buy into the 1.19 WHIP and 3.38 ERA from a season ago as it will climb.

P Ryan Vogelsong Vogelsong struggled in the 2nd half (7W/4.55 ERA/1.31 WHIP) as he gave up more hits and HRs than he's typically charged with. Despite his advancing age (35), he still makes for a decent #5 pitcher in most league formats.
P Scott Baker Baker is returning from an April 2012 TJS. He should be ready to start the season, but it typically takes a full 12-18 months before everything is back to normal.

P Scott Diamond Low K/I guy (.52), but partially makes up for it with his pinpoint control (1.8 BB/9). Still his 92% contact rate in K zone is going to leave him at the fate of balls hit into play...so results will be inconsistent.

P Scott Feldman Lots went wrong for Feldman last season, including an unlucky .317 BABIP, poor .64 Strand Rate, struggle
s at old home park (moves from Tex to CHN), and an XERA that was 51 points lower than actual. Not going to repeat his 17 Win season anytime soon, but a rebound is expected.

P Shaun Marcum As a heavy FB (42%) pitcher, he'll need to land in a pitchers park to maximize value.

P Shelby Miller All of Miller’s offerings have good movement, his fastball dives for the plate, his curve is sharp and vertical, and his change fades nicely in on LHH. If he maximizes his off-speed stuff Shelby can be a force, but frankly it looks like he probably could be effective with his fastball and just a legitimate threat of throwing off-speed. Shelby has a legitimate, unqualified #1 ceiling. Miller any start the season in AAA, but cold be up with the first failing in the rotation.

P Stephen Fife Was a 1.40-1.50 EHIP guy in minors...enough said.

P Stephen Strasburg Stras was absolutely dominant in the first half 9 Wins / 1.08 WHIP / 2.81 ERA...then there was a drop-off which we are going to consider as par for the course for a pitcher who returned within 11 months after TJS. We expect him to be back to full dominance with Cy Young aspirations for the start of the 2013 season.

P Steve Johnson Posted a 2.64 ERA/1.07 WHIP with 1.20 K/I in 38 innings last season. His K/I is well above his minor league average and his .229 BABIP points to a lot of luck on balls hit into play. There will be a step back in '13, but he's still a possible sleeper candidate in deeper leagues, but there is a low probability that he can come close to the dominance he exhibited last year.

P Ted Lilly The shoulder injury that later required surgery sidelined Lilly last season, but he's on his way back. Worth watching this spring as his sub 1.20 WHIP is worthy.

P Tim Hudson Only deserved 10 Wins last season, instead of 16. We saw a big drop in Hudson's K/I (from .73 to .57). A big part might be explained by the drop in his FB (90.5 to 89). Lucky BABIP (267) kept WHIP at only 1.21. At 37, he's a bit dicey to bounce back.

P Tim Lincecum His drop in velocity is well documented (94 peak in2009 to 92 in 2011 to 90 last season). What was once his out pitch Changeup) is no longer effective as the speed difference between pitches has been reduced to 7 MPH. So something is broken, yet he continues to strikeout more than 1 batter an inning (very similar to his career high), and his contact rate when in the K zone (85%) was actually better than it was during his CY Young season. His strand rate was a career low of .66, his BABIP 307 and HR/FB ratio a career high...which all inflated his WHIP and ERA considerably. So...this may be about location as much as speed...which means that he can possibly turn it around. However, if you do take the chance on him, buy in at a discount. As his delivery may need to change.

[stevenash]

Lucas Harrell - SP Astros - Lucas Harrell says he would like to upgrade his curveball for the 2013 season, hoping it will help him work deeper into games. He considers it his 4th best pitch but he'd like it to a bigger part of his arsenal and he spent some time polishing it this offseason. Harrell allowed 1 run on 3 hits, a walk, and 4 Ks on Tuesday against the Nats. Lucas was a pleasant surprise last season posting 11 wins with a 3.76/1.36 slash. Harrell throws a ton of GBs (57%) and that helps spackle over his borderline K (6.5/9) rate and more ominous BB (3.6/9) rate.

His move to the AL this year shaves his margin for error even slimmer, and he's going to need to upgrade his swing and miss capabilities. His .289 BABIP in 2012 is probably better than he can repeat this season as is his GB%. It's unwise to pay for 2012, and he's likely to be a bit overvalued in most formats. Still, if he survives to the late, roster-filling portion of your draft, he could present some value at the right price

Eric Bedard - SP Astros - 34-year-old Eric Bedard has been battling a strained glute but the Astros are hopeful of getting him back on the mound soon.

Bedard is a non-roster invitee, coming off a disappointing season with the Bucs in 2012 (7-14, 5.01, 1.47). It wasn't quite as bad as it seems. His .314 BABIP is a little elevated, and his career-low 66.5% LOB percentage made it's contribution as well.

Still his control slipped, as did his velocity, and a string of injuries has left us with a string of 4 seasons of less than 130 IP and 24 starts. His declining velocity and his inconsistent health suppresses his value, and his 5.01 ERA will scare off a lot of owners.

He's going to be better this year if he can get and stay healthy, but it's hard to say how much better. If there were a prop bet here between him posting a 4.50 ERA or better and Bedard not pitching 130 innings, I'd bet on the latter. Stay away.

Will Middlebrooks - 3B Red Sox - Some will look upon Will's debut with the Red Sox in 2012 and prorate his 15 homers in 75 games to a potential 30 HR season.

A big and strong right-handed pull hitter, Will brings to mind Jason Bay (the good Jason Bay) and to be sure he has the potential to post a 30-homer season or two at Fenway, but I just don't think 2013 is the year.

Will still has some work to do at the plate, as evidenced by his zone control last season (24.5% K rate, 4.5% BB walk rate, 29.3% chase rate). There was also more than a whiff of good fortune in his HR total. His 21.4% HR/FB rate, 390 ft average per homer and 103 mph batted ball speed are all less than supportive of the 30-homer season we all are looking for.

Coupled with his still-developing discipline, there's always the potential for periods of struggle once the league asks him to make an adjustment this season after finding a consistent hole.

There's still value to be had with Will if you get him at the right price, but there will be a lot of people thinking about those 30 homers, and he will probably be overvalued in many leagues. It's important to be disciplined yourself and value Middlebrooks reasonably. You also want to slot him as a CI if possible, if he's your starting 3B you are playing catchup in most formats.

John Lackey - SP Red Sox - Having given up 4 earned runs in his first 3 IP over two appearances this spring, John Lackey acquitted himself well against Puerto Rico in Fort Myers on Tuesday night, throwing 3 scoreless innings, giving up just 3 hits while striking out 2. 31 of his 45 pitches were strikes and he mixed in a newly minted cutter into the mix after it showed well in his pre game warmup.

He's throwing all four pitches well, and for strikes, and he's throwing without pain. What does that mean for his value in 2013?

He's a wild card. I could try and pretend like I know but I don't. The fact is that we don't know what he was before he missed last year with TJS, so it's hard to project.

His K rate, BB rate, WHIP, and OBA were in three year declines. In 2011 His swinging strike %, and GB rate were at, or worse than, his three-year lows. Still he maintained his velocity and his chase rate has actually improved. Then there's his hatred of Fenway and the overlay of the general toxicity of the 2011 Red Sox to somehow factor in.

There are too many variables to reconcile effectively here, but his stuff so far indicates that perhaps he should be on some list somewhere that you pull out at the end of the draft when you are willing to take a total flier and with little to no risk. Stay tuned, lets see how his next few innings pan out ...

Jackie Bradley Jr. - OF Red Sox Jackie Bradley Jr.has created a little buzz with his hot start in grapefruit league action. John Farrell is already on record as thinking that Bradley will start the year in AAA Pawtucket, and despite his recent walk back on closing the door completely, the Red Sox roster as it's currently constituted says that makes sense. He should be on your radar however.

Bradley is the current heir apparent to Jacoby Ellsbury in CF regardless of whether Ellsbury's contract year ends his tenure in Boston at the trade deadline or in the offseason, or even if Ellsbury stays in Boston. If Ellsbury does get dealt however, Bradley probably presents some 2013 value.

Bradley presents quite a bit like Jacoby in some ways, and he may have more power and better zone control, without the elite speed and baserunning skills that Ellsbury possesses. Bradley takes a walk, and will probably maintain enough on-base ability to justify a leadoff slot. That will in turn present running opportunities which he has the skills to take advantage of.

He has plus speed but hasn't stolen a ton of bases in the minors. He has a 30-SB ceiling at the major league level but the organization will have to let him run and teach him how to realize that potential. As a major league he'll steal bases, supply runs, and he doesn't have top end power potential (but could probably supply mid teens in HRs) but he can slash, so he'll show some extra value in leagues that score XBH or SLG%.

This will be the last spring that he's off anyone's screen, if he still is, so in keeper leagues that allow minor leaguers, or room to stash minor leaguers, Bradley might be good to have in your pocket. It appears a pretty good bet he'll be a factor in 2014 if not the last two months of 2013.

Roy Halladay - SP Phillies - Doc went 4 scoreless innings for the Phillies against the Nationals, and he actually brought a little grit to the table, throwing behind Tyler Moore as a warning shot after Stephen Strasburg hit Chase Utley the inning before. That's a good sign. I like to think he's feeling his oats

We are concerned about his velocity drop of late, even accounting for injury last year, and what we are also paying attention to is the fact that his breaking stuff wasn't effective last year either. Some of that is probably due to the shoulder strain, but it may not be the entire story. It's one of the things we'll be watching this year.

All that being said, even last year, despite his finally showing some wear and skill decline, he pitched a little better than his results indicate. Watch his velocity as we go along this spring. He's probably in line for something of a bounce back season, but it would be foolish to pay for the performance level we saw from Halladay from 2008-2011.

If your league is totally sour on him though, feel free to bargain shop, just don't slot him as a cornerstone of your staff.

Mark Teixeira - 1B Yankees - A good reason to wait as long as possible to have your league's draft ... Mark has been diagnosed with a strained right wrist, and it looks to be one hell of a strain. He's expected to be shut down completely for a month, and his total estimated return time at this point would be 8-10 weeks. Mark your calendars for mid-to-late May.

At 33, Mark has all of a sudden become a health risk, and his ability to hit for average is in a 4-year free fall.To this point though he still shows position-viable power, but in 2013 terms you just lost at least a month and a half of the season, he's lost his Spring Training along with the chance at any kind of a normal ramp up this season, and we are looking at a seemingly severe injury to a key physical component of his power game. Not good.

Johan Santana - SP Mets - The Mets say they expect Santana to be back on the mound in a ST game in about a week. Rostering Johan is like driving with your gas gauge needle below empty. You probably have a few miles left but your ability to move the car can change without notice.

Despite what we saw last year, particularly after he was stretched too far in his mid-season no hitter, Johan still has some skills. His change is still excellent and his slider is still respectable. And while his control slipped last year, for the most part, with his offspeed stuff, his command is still good in long stretches, and he can still get hitters to swing and miss (11.6% last year).

You can probably still get a sub 4.00 ERA here, but you don't know how many innings of that you are going to get, and he's simply not a consistent play anymore.

Derek Lowe - SP Rangers - Derek Lowe signed a deal with the Rangers on Wednesday. He'd provide and a bridge for the Rangers while Colby Lewis and Martin Perez heal and then move to the bullpen. The report says that while it is a minor league deal, Lowe has been guaranteed a roster spot. He's not worth drafting as a starter, if only because he's not likely to spend the season in the rotation, but if your league scores holds, Derek could eventually become a source.

Jeff Samardzija - SP Cubs - Pay no attention to the torching of Jeff Samardzija in yesterday's B game. This is one of those spring things where a pitcher sees some live action to work on some things ... that and it was a 10:00am start that he thought was a 10:30 start, so he was completely out of whack by the time he made the mound. Basically Jeff was mostly throwing to stay on schedule.

Last year's breakout for Spellcheck looks completely solid. His chase rates, and contact rates were excellent (12.1% SwStr, 84% contact rate inside the zone and 74% outside) and he threw a solid number of ground balls in addition to his strong control and elite K rate.

In fact you could make the argument he was a bit unlucky in HR/FB (12.8%) and BABIP, and there was actually some ceiling in his results. We have him just outside the top 20, but he has the potential to join the club

Zack Greinke - SP Dodgers - Zack was scheduled to pitch against Mexico on Wednesday but was scratched with the flu. No worries here, he's fine.

Zack would have been a top 10 starter almost no matter where he pitches but the move to LA can only help. The NL will help his K totals, and a few less HRs could dip his ERA closer to 3.00, and the Dodgers should provide another win or two.

Zack is also usually one of the lowest-valued top tier starters (although Cliff Lee may give him a run this year). As starters go, in most leagues, Zack is a pretty solid bet at a relatively lower value.

Kendrys Morales - 1B Mariners - Morales hit a two-run homer yesterday against the Brewers and he's up to .353 on the spring.

Many will be put off by his move to Safeco but the park isn't much tougher for left-handed hitting than the one he came from. His second half suggests he was still on the comeback trail a bit when when the 2012 season opened which indicates a full, healthy season will produce an uptick in the numbers and Kendrys might provided some delta on his cost in many leagues.
Alex Gordon - OF Royals - The Royals collected 15 hits against Arizona on Wednesday, three of them from Alex Gordon, one of which was a Grand Slam.

Alex presents a lot of sleeper potential and his overall 2012 numbers were suppressed by a tough first half. We like his XBH rate and we are looking for him to start lifting the ball more. All of that combined with a rebound in his HR/FB rate (down over 4% to 8.5% last year) could easily get him back into the 20s in HRs.

More importantly for keeper league owners, you can almost feel the tremors of a breakout. Gordon still looks like he has another power gear, and he may come cheaply enough in your league, or be around in the right draft position, where you can roll the dice and score big.

Kyle Lohse - SP Free Agent - The Rangers signing of Derek Lowe probably stuck a fork in the possibility that Kyle would sign with the Rangers. In fact a source in the Rangers organization told MLB.com that Loshe is off the board.

You are forgiven is at this point if you are questioning whether Scott Boras has overplayed Loshe's hand. It's hard to imagine a team suddenly believing in March that they screwed up with their current rotation to the extent that they now want to spend the kind of money that Boras is asking and give up the draft compensation. Of course all of that could change with the first key injury to starter.

Explore your options in your league regarding your ability to stash free agents. Lohse is likely to make a contribution somewhere at some point this season, but it doesn't look like it's going to happen in Texas.

Patrick Corbin - SP Diamondbacks - Corbin was roughed up the Royals to the tune of 4 runs on three hits and a walk, one of the hits being the above-mentioned Alex Gordon Grand Slam. It's a bump in the road after a strong start to the spring which had to this point at least made him a favorite for the 5th starter slot.

Corbin emerged as a darkhorse contributor in 2012 while everyone's attention was focused on Bauer and Skaggs. He lives and dies on his GB rate because he's not very difficult to hit (8.7% SwStr, 23.3% LD%).

Corbin has three legitimate pitches, none of which are overpowering but he throws them with command and control. A lower release point allows him to work down and draws those ground balls, but as is the case with most pitchers who allow a lot of contact, there are a lot of ways things can go wrong, not the least of which is his predilection to give up homers (1.18 HR/9 last year).

There's too much risk here, it's hard to imagine a situation in all but the deepest leagues where you can't scare up a better draft option.

P Johnny Cueto Breakout season in '12 with 19 Wins/2.82 ERA/1.17 WHIP...but can he repeat? We think the odds are stacked against him: His ERA was 38 points less than expected, his Strand rate of .78 is considered high for a pitcher with a .78 Strand Rate, and he had 3 more wins than deserved. Still a stud at only 27...but a statistical backtrack expected.

P Jon Lester Seems to have lost mastery over hitters, as evidenced by rise in K Zone contact rate (from 86% in 2010 to 91% in 2012). Still l he was shorted 3 Wins by lack of team support. Xera says ERA was off by 36 points, BABIP was a career unlucky high (.310) and the 67% strand rate didn't help. Some bounce back expected.

P Jon Niese How special was Niese's 2012 season, consider that he never posted a WHIP as good as his 1.17 (closest was 1.28), nor held the opponent to a higher Runners Stranded Rate 77% during his 4 year minor league career. Aiding him as a lucky BABIP (270), so we're going to see some regression, although the Wins column could improve with some additional team support.

P Jordan Zimmermann Excellent command (1.98 BB/9) , with domination verses LHP (354 SLG). Continues to benefit from lower than typical HR/FB rate of 9%, but ERA was understated by 47 points last year. Has top 20 potential.

P Josh Beckett His fastball has lost 3 MPH since 2009.

P Josh Johnson Johnson lost a tick on his fastball last season, and the 2 MPH he's lost since his peak in 2009, was a significant reason he struggled in 2012. However at 93 MPH Johnson, still has enough fastball to be effective, and he did just that in the 2nd H posting a 1.18 WHIP. Unfortunately he didn't get much support. Consider that he finished with 22 Quality Starts, yet only registered 8 Wins...possibly being shorted as many as 7 victories. Buy low.

P Justin Masterson Unlucky BABIP (303) hurt Masterson...as his high GB/FB rate failed him in 2012. It seems that the worst came with men on base as evidenced by his .66 Strand Rate. He'll be better in '13, but with low K/I guys...the risk is higher.

P Justin Verlander Continues to dominate with a rubber arm. Once again logged in an impressive 238 innings with his 4:1 K/BB rate. Once again a top 3 pitching selection.

P Kevin Correia Poor K/I rate, keeps him at BABIP (GB pitcher), which was a lucky last season, expect his overall numbers to back off and not build on the 8 2H victories.

P Kris Medlen Don't buy into the 1.57 ERA, as his 85% strand rate is not sustainable on a .87 K/I. What is impressive is his 53% GB rate and pinpoint control 1.5 BB/9...This former top prospect has arrived.

P Kyle Drabek Very hittable when in K zone (90%), couple his with a Low K rate and high BB%...and I don't see any breakout coming in 2013.

P Kyle Kendrick Came around and pitched very well in the 2nd half (9 Wins/2.64 ERA/1.03 WHIP), but it will be difficult to replicate...especially dominance verses LHP.

P Kyle Lohse 77% Runners Stranded rate is not sustainable for a pitcher with a .68 K. Expect a climb in both WHIP and ERA

P Lance Lynn Struggles on the Road (.453 SLG) and against LHP (.464) , yet he finished with a 18-7 W/L record. Don't pay for more than a 11 or 12 game winner however as that's all he deserved with his 16 quality starts.

P Liam Hendriks Ripped through minors with sub 1.15 WHIP, but was very hittable last season with his 90 MPH fastball. Consider his Contact rate was 89% (MLB average around 80%). Not a strikeout pitcher either (.59 K/I). Not a lot of love here.

[stevenash]

Toronto Blue Jays Rebound for Ricky? Ricky Romero SP - Heading into last season people said that subscribers that Ricky Romero was overrated, but I don't think any of us saw this coming. Romero's ERA ballooned from 2.92 to 5.77 with his WHIP going from a near elite 1.14 to a number that you probably think involves some sort of typo, 1.67. Romero was terrible, there is no way around it. He saw his K% drop by 4 points while his BB% grew by 4 points. So, why are we projecting a rebound (3.39 ERA, 1.29 WHIP)? Romero is still in the prime of his career (28 YO), appears to be fully healthy this Spring and has a solid history of a 19 K% and 9 BB% to go with one of the best GB rates in the league year in and year out (54.4 career GB%).

The hope is that with some offseason tweaks, Romero will return to form. Sometimes guys just have incredibly off years, but Romero has the talent and opportunity to bounce back. Our projection may be on the optimistic end, but even if you downgrade it a bit, there is profit potential as you can get Romero next to nothing in most drafts due to the atrocious 2012 numbers. I'm not suggesting making Romero a rock in your draft day plans, but there is still value in a durable SP (125 starts the past 4 seasons) who is in his prime and has two solid seasons in the past three. Don't overspend here, but don't neglect either.

Opportunity for Santos?
Sergio Santos RP - At the moment, closer
Casey Janssen is dealing with a shoulder issue. It doesn't project to be a big deal, and he could be ready for the opener. However, if Janssen were to miss any time, Santos would be the guy to step in, and if he's successful I wouldn't be surprised if he kept the role. Last offseason, the Jays traded for Santos with the idea that he could be their closer for the next few years. It didn't quite work out right away as Santos struggled out of the gate before finding the DL at the end of April. He wouldn't return. When Santos is healthy (aside from last year's injury, he is currently dealing with a triceps issue), though, he has the skills to be a very good closer. In his last full season (with the White Sox) he posted a 2.69 xFIP thanks to a superb 35.4 K% and solid 3.17 K/BB ratio. On top of all that he had a GB% of 50%, making him less homer prone than Janssen (42.5 K%) who gave up some of his ground ball ability to increase his K's. Janssen is probably safer due to his low walk rates, but Santos has the GB/K combination to be potentially dominant and is someone to target at the end of drafts if Janssen's health status is still up in the air.

Kansas City Royals
Me and Lorenzo Rollin in a Benzo
Lorenzo Cain OF - Cain was a sleeper last year whose name picked up steam as the draft season wore on, but early season injuries derailed him. This year he doesn't carry as much value for a couple of reasons. First of all, Cain is expected to hit towards the bottom of the Royals' lineup. With on base machines Jeff Franceour (.287 OBP in '12) and Mike Moustakas (.296) projected to hit in front of Cain and the powerful Chris Getz (career .059 ISO) projected to hit behind him, the RS and RBI opportunities won't exactly be pouring in. Secondly, Cain displayed some troubling signs in regards to his plate discipline. He struck out 23.1% of the time, posting just a .27 EYE. The good news is Cain has a decent power-speed combo that will give him value in all leagues even if the upside is lacking. He was 10-10 in steal opportunities last year and in 2011 he went 16-16 in 128 games at AAA. Look for Cain to go 15-20 in HR-SB which is definitely useful, but a so-so batting average and likely low RS-RBI totals cap his upside.

What to Expect Out of Frenchy
Jeff Francoeur OF - After one of the best seasons of his career, Francoeur saw a huge production drop across the board: 50 point average drop, -4 homers, -19 RS, -38 RBI's, -18 SB. In other words, he was a BUST. There's no dancing around it, Francoeur is a high volatility player. He swings at everything, posting chase rates of over 40% in 3 straight seasons. I think this approach makes him difficult to predict. I think there are probably better late round bets to make as a closer look at Francoeur's underlying skills reveals perhaps a little more reason for concern than just a down season for a free swinger. His power, which depends on generating loft (just career 10.1 HR/FB rate), was sapped by a 45% GB rate, Francoeur's highest since 2006. I'm also a little baffled by Francoeur continuing to consistently swing at pitches outside of the strike zone, yet he has swung at pitches in the strike zone less and less, setting career lows in that regard two straight seasons.

Tampa Bay Rays
Post Hype Sleeper
Matt Moore SP - Matt Moore entered 2012 with a ton of fanfare, but he was a little disappointing, posting a 3.81 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Heading into 2013, I am treating that stat line as a floor for a variety of reasons. First of all, I envision Moore improving both his K and BB rates which would go a long ways towards success. He struck out 23.1% of the batters he faced, which is good (3.3 percentage points better than the league average), but this is a guy who struck out around 34% of the batters he faced in the Minor Leagues. I strongly suspect he will be over a K an inning this year and possibly well over it. Secondly, I'll admit when I sat down to write this I expected Moore's ERA/WHIP from 2012 to have been higher. I think that's the perception we have when a guy starts off slow - to remember the start more than the finish. Moore actually posted a 3.01 second half ERA with a 24.3 K% and 9.5 BB% compared to a first half ERA of 4.42 with a 22.1 K% and 11.5 BB%. And the second half numbers were not posted by dominating sub-par competition in September as he actually struggled in that month (facing 3 playoff teams and another in playoff contention). The final reason I'm optimistic about Moore improving is his odd reverse splits from 2012. Moore posted a 5.14xFIP against left-handed batters, striking them out just 16.8% of the time. It seems unlikely to me that a pitcher with the potential to be as dominant as Moore would continue to struggle so much against same handed batters, even if the reverse splits are not a complete fluke. Moore had a low BABIP and HR/FB rate in 2012, but I'm not too concerned about regression here. Tropicana Field is a pitcher's park, and the Rays generally have strong defenses. Also, Moore is a fly ball pitcher (42.9 FB%) which leads to a low BABIP, especially considering that the percentage of Moore's fly balls that were pop ups (14.3%) was the 6th best rate among qualified starting pitchers. Moore also induced swing and misses at pitches in the strike zone 19% of the time, which is more than 6 percentage points better than the league average. This is another stat that has recently been shown to correlate with low BABIP's (hat tip to fellow analyst Drew Dinkmeyer for the link): http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...heck-on-babip/. I think it's pretty clear from this blurb that I am "all-in" on Matt Moore. Our projection of a 3.41 ERA, 14 wins, 1.25 WHIP and 200 K's shows growth and probably settles in near Moore's most likely outcome for the year, but I think there's still incredible upside beyond it (3 ERA, 225 K's).

Keep Your Eye On...
Jeff Niemann SP - If Niemann (the subject of continued trade rumors) stays put in Tampa, he could make for a good late round flier (assuming he makes the rotation). Niemann does not have the requisite upside to warrant investing too much in the injury prone 30 YO, but that likely won't be necessary. For example, Niemann is currently the 94th SP off of the board in NFBC drafts; Fantistics has him ranked 57th. In 8 starts last year, Niemann showed a lot of promise, posting a 3.08 ERA that was in line with the skills he was displaying (2.83 K/BB ratio, 51.4 GB%, 3.09 FIP). At his worst skills wise, Niemann is a league average pitcher pitching in front of a good defense in a pitcher's park. At his best (last year), he has those advantages and is above average in all 3 major skill stats: K%, BB% and GB%. He's definitely a name to keep in mind when the SP's start thinning out.

Around the League
Bryce Harper OF (WAS) - Fellow analyst Drew Dinkmeyer was telling me the other day that he believes Harper finishes in the top 20 of all hitters - easily. Looking at Harper's profile it's easy to see the reasons for optimism. Let's start with two batted ball stats. Harper posted a 22.5 LD% and a 16.2 HR/FB%. It's quite amazing the amount of solid, consistent and powerful contact that Harper possessed out of the gate. He backed it up with just enough patience (9.4 BB%) to keep pitchers honest and just enough contact rate (80%) to keep the average from dipping too much. So we've got a guy who at age 19 showed enough plate discipline to stabilize things and showed that he absolutely tears the cover off the ball. The main reason for optimism stems from Harper's 16.2 HR/FB rate. That number is very legitimate (and long term we may come to view it as one of Harper's lower marks of his career) considering Harper graded out as an 80 power on the 20-80 scouting scale. Now, if he can incrementally improve on that and his loft, which is going to happen, it's just a matter of when, Harper can approach 30 homers. You put him third in a decent lineup with that power and speed (should steal 20) and you have an elite player.

Wilin Rosario C (COL) - Our projection for Rosario is the result of his outstanding power. He posted a .260 ISO last year, which easily led all catchers with at least 300 PA. He posted an incredible 25.5 HR/FB rate. Coors certainly helped but Rosario still hit 10 homers in 57 road games. I am a little more bearish than our projections software, though, just because I think there is some risk with Rosario despite the potential. His EYE was bad at .25, and he lacked the patience I like to see out of power hitters (5.9 walk rate), not that that is an absolute must. Furthering that point, he swung at 38.4% of pitches outside of the strike zone, more than 8 percentage points higher than the league average. If Rosario is able to just maintain his plate discipline stats, he should have no problem reaching our projection, but I am personally a little concerned that pitchers will make an even larger point to get Rosario to chase this year, which could lead to a decrease in both HR/FB rate and contact rate.

Adrian Gonzalez 1B (LAD) - I'm high on a bounce back season for Adrian Gonzalez. Each of the past two years he has posted disappointing HR totals, averaging just 22.5 homers after hitting 30 or more for four straight seasons. Two years ago the culprit was an abnormally high GB rate (46.7%). Last year, Gonzalez corrected that posting a GB rate below his career average. Rather, the 2012 power outage could be directly traced back to a 9.6 HR/FB rate. Gonzalez's career HR/FB rate is 16%, and he equaled or bettered that mark in four straight seasons prior to last year. Gonzalez started to show a return to form in the second half of last year (12 HR in 290 at bats compared to 6 in 339 over the first half), and I think we see both his loft (GB rate) and raw power (HR/FB rate) return to normal, giving the 30-31 YO a shot at one more 30 HR season.

Chris Perez RP (CLE) - According to Rotoworld, Chris Perez may begin a throwing program this Sunday. Reading between the lines, it sounds to me as if Perez is doubtful for Opening Day, which would leave closing duties in the capable hands of Vinny Pestano (2.50 career ERA). Perez answered a lot of his critics (myself included) last season by flashing some solid peripheral stats to go with his good surface stats. He actually improved quite dramatically skill wise with the GB rate increasing 12 percentage points and the K/BB ratio moving from 1.50 to 3.69.

Brett Lawrie 3B (TOR) - Lawrie was forced to drop out of the World Baseball Classic as he hurt his rib cage in an exhibition game. It sounds as if he is still expected to be ready for Opening Day but continue to monitor the situation as the draft season progresses. Check out my blurbs from last to week to get my thoughts on Lawrie as a post hype sleeper.

Carl Crawford OF (LAD) - As our projections software notes, we like Crawford to bounce back from his injury marred 2012 year and his ability to score a lot of runs hitting in front of Kemp, Gonzalez and Ramirez. At 31 YO it's not time yet to throw in the towel on Crawford. However, Crawford needs to get healthy. His elbow is still giving him problems, and it's likely he will open the season on the DL. Make sure you update the projections software as updates are made daily; we've dropped Crawford's expected at bats to 485.

Paul Goldschmidt 1B (ARZ) - The Fantistics projection software has Goldschmidt ranked as a top 5 1B heading into 2013. The optimism is a result of various factors working together. Goldschmidt is in his prime (25 YO), in a hitter's park, has a double digit walk rate, saw improvements in his K rate, makes great contact (23.9 LD%) and has some upside in his HR/FB% (14.2%). He will also swipe you 15 bases which is a rare commodity for a 1B. The only concern here is some scouts (Keith Law comes to mind) feel that Goldschmidt is something of a platoon bat (.442 wOBA against LHP, .322 wOBA against RHP), but the rest of the profile looks so solid to me that I am not reserving my optimism.

Aaron Hicks OF (MIN) - Hicks homered 3 times yesterday. I don't put a lot of stock into Spring Training stats, so I'm not by any means going nuts over this, but if Hicks keeps hitting he could win the Twins' CF job out of Spring Training. Hicks has always had the tools that scouts loved but has had trouble putting them together, and thus he is only ranked 37th on our Top 50 Hitting Prospects (check out our Prospect Central!). Hicks has good speed (stole 32 in 129 games last year at AA) and has shown promising walk rates in the Minors. However, his power has been a bit sporadic and some think his contact rate will be poor in the Majors, especially initially as he is pretty raw. Still, keep any eye on him as his 30-40 SB potential over 600 PA's (as noted in our projections software) has him worth drafting in deep mixed leagues and AL only leagues.

1B Edwin Encarnacion Edwin had his breakout season in '12. Similar to teammate Jose Bautista, his breakout was off the charts. His SLUG verses LHP increased by 150+ points. Edwin had 66 XBH and 42 where HRs...there is sure to be some regression there as that ratio is extremely lopsided.

1B Eric Hosmer Positives: Hosmer has pop in his bat (405 average HR distance), Hosmer had an unlucky BHIP (.211) which cost him 30-40 points in BA, 82% contact rate, still only 23 YO, decent EYE (.59). Negatives: His XBH% dropped from 9.4 to 7.1. Clearly there is upside here, but it might take some time before we see the superstar emerge.

1B Freddie Freeman Continues to progress as a power hitter, could be a 30/100 guy as early as 2013. EYE improved dramatically in the 2nd half of 2012 (.71). Continues to scold the ball with a +25% line drive rate, and GB/FB splits (1.02) indicate that he is starting to elevate the baseball.

1B Gaby Sanchez Unlucky Balls it into Play Success (.186) cost Sanchez 40-50 points from his BA. Troubling to see his XBH% drop for the 2nd straight year...will have to produce out of gate or Garrett Jones will assume everyday job at 1st base.

1B Garrett Jones Really struggles against LHP (.297 slg), which hurts his value in weekly start leagues as full time PT is an issue. Monster production against RHP, makes him under rated stud in Daily leagues.

1B Ike Davis Strong 2nd half (21/45/.249) masks his inability to hit LHP (.335 LHP). He was unlucky on BHIP (.188 Singles Rate) probably cost him 30 in BA...but his poor contact rate (.72) and penchant for FB (.97 GB/FB) ratio, does offer much more upside in BA than the 250-260 range. His HR/FB rate of 21% is certainly elevated, as it should be closer to 15%.

1B James Loney One of the least productive 1st baseman in fantasy.

1B Joey Votto Torn meniscus cost Votto much of the 2nd half. Was off to great start, and finished with an amazing 15.5% XBH rate. Return to full health will be met with return to MVP caliber numbers.

1B Justin Morneau EYE (.44) took a downward fall in '12 as K% increased and BB% decreased. He did improve in 2nd half however with 9/43/.290 line. Might never be back to were he was, but there is reason for optimism.

1B Justin Smoak 20% K rate without the prolific HR production really hurts his playing time potential....especially with Morales now in town.

1B Kendrys Morales Has legit 30 HR power, as he can hit both LHP/RHP (.471/.464). 20% HR/FB rate from last year is his 3 year norm. Still within his prime to post career season.

[freeVICK]

Didnt get a chance to read it all but great thread

Yo Nash give us a couple players at each position who you gotta have on all your teams

[Shortstop]

There is some really excellent information in here. I'll try to read through it when I have the chance...

Thanks, Nasher!

[Chi_archie]

yeah Gaby Sanchez!

Jose Tabata looking great this spring too

[stevenash]

---

Julio Teheran, SP ATL - It's a make-or-break year for Atlanta's top pitching prospect after he posted an ugly 5.08 ERA (4.83 FIP) with Triple-A Gwinnett last season. The Braves told Teheran to work on his sinker in winter ball and he did just that. The combination of a power sinker and four-seamer up in the zone has helped Teheran strike out 12 batters and walk just two while allowing four hits in nine innings this spring. That's a great sign for a pitcher who hasn't recorded a K/9 better than 8.55 since Single-A and had a 6.66 K/9 last season. This is the same guy who went 15-3 with a 2.55 ERA in Triple-A in 2011 and he has no competition for the fifth-starter spot so he is worth a look on potential alone.


Paul Maholm, SP ATL - Maholm was the consolation prize for Atlanta last summer after it couldn't score Maholm's rotation-mate Ryan Dempster from the Cubs, and the left-hander turned out to be a good buy for the Braves. He went 4-5 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.19 WHIP for Atlanta and finished with 13 wins and a 3.67 ERA for the season; nearly identical to the 3.66 ERA he posted in 2011. But Maholm has been a mess this spring, walking six batters and allowing nine hits in 8 1/3 innings. Maholm had a FIP of 4.00 last season; the last time he posted an ERA of lower than 4.00 but had a FIP of 4.00 or higher was 2008, and the following year he regressed to a 4.44 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. The lefty has improved his K/9 while trimming his walk rate in each of the past two seasons so he won't drop off as far as he did in 2009 but he'll still need to post a BABIP below league average to avoid a 4.00 ERA.


Philadelphia Phillies
Outfield Update: When it comes to Philadelphia's corner outfield spots, you have the known -- Delmon Young and John Mayberry Jr. -- and the unknown -- Domonic Brown and Darin Ruf. Young hasn't played yet this spring but he has been around long enough that we know what to expect. He strikes out a ton, doesn't walk and hits a lot of ground balls, so he shouldn't even see much of a spike in home runs despite moving from Comerica Park to Citizens Bank Park. Mayberry is essentially the same player with a slightly higher walk rate. Ruf is intriguing since he hit .333 with three homers in 33 at-bats last season after belting 38 at Double-A Reading, but he fanned 12 times after getting to the majors and those 33 at-bats are his only at-bats above Double-A. Brown tore up the lower levels of the minor leagues and was once considered Philadelphia's top prospect but he has been a disappointment at Triple-A and beyond. Brown once flashed 20/20 potential but he has hit just 20 homers and stolen 20 bases combined in 223 games at several levels since 2011. This is probably his last chance at an everyday job and he has taken advantage so far with three homers and a .424 batting average in 13 games this spring.
Michael Young, 3B PHI - Young actually had the highest contact percentage of his career (85.9 percent) last season but it didn't matter because most of his balls in play were grounders. He has experienced a two-year decline in fly-ball percentage and a three-year drop in HR/FB rate. He also swung at 51.2 percent of all pitches and 32.5 percent outside of the strike zone last season, up from 47.1 percent and 25.7 percent, respectively, in 2011. Young has a combined UZR of minus-14.5 over the last two seasons, according to FanGraphs, despite starting only 170 of his 315 games in the field during that timeframe, and now he's going to be asked to play third base everyday for the first time since 2010.


Wade Miley, SP ARI - Regression alert! Yes, Miley had a 3.33 ERA and 3.15 FIP during his rookie season and there was nothing to suggest he was particularly lucky on balls in play but he profiled as a different pitcher in the minors. He walked 3.13 batters per nine innings in his minor league career before finishing seventh in the majors with a 1.71 BB/9 last season. As a groundball pitcher (1.28 GB/FB), Miley is going to keep the ball in the park, but a 6.9 HR/FB is well below league average, which seems unsustainable especially considering he pitches at Chase Field, one of the most favorable parks for hitters in all of baseball.
Allen Craig, 1B STL - Craig agreed to a five-year contract extension Friday on the heels of a tremendous season in which he hit .307 with 22 homers and an .876 OPS in just 119 games. Craig still has to prove he can stay healthy for a full season -- he missed all of April last season after having knee surgery and landed on the disabled list for the latter half of may with a hamstring injury -- but he should be able to return value as a top-10 fantasy first baseman, even if a high groundball rate (.431 career) prevents him from hitting more than 25 homers. Craig will hit .300 because he hits well at home and on the road and against both lefties and righties. And he should challenge 90 runs, something only three first baseman accomplished last season, whether he hits second, fourth or fifth in one of the deepest lineups in the National League.


Carlos Quentin, OF SD - Quentin made his spring debut Friday following arthroscopic knee surgery and was promptly hit by a pitch in his first at-bat. He should be used to that by now after getting drilled 40 times in just 204 games over the last two seasons, most in the majors. Quentin has never played more than 131 games in any season, so fantasy owners need to have plenty of outfield depth if they draft him, but there's still a lot to like. He posted his highest walk percentage since 2008 and lowest strikeout percentage of his career and slugged .504 last season. He also recorded the highest line-drive percentage of his career and saw a slight increase in HR/FB rate despite moving from U.S. Cellular Field to Petco Park. Quentin wasn't bothered much by Petco, as he hit seven homers in 37 games there compared to nine in 49 road games.
Brett Gardner, OF NYA - What was supposed to be a 15-day elbow injury turned into one that kept Gardner out for more than five months last season, limiting him to 16 games. Before 2012, Gardner had played at least 150 games in back-to-back seasons and swiped a total of 96 bases in that span. He also scored 184 runs in those two years while spending his time batting first, second, eighth or ninth in the lineup. With a severely depleted roster that will be lacking eight of its top 10 home run hitters from last season, the Yankees will need to rely heavily on Gardner's speed to generate offense, at least early in the season while Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira are out. The good news is that even when Gardner is slumping at the plate, he can still work a walk to get to first base, the most important spot for a base stealer. He walked 139 times combined in 2010 and 2011.


Mike Moustakas, 3B KC - Moustakas already has 13 hits in 27 at-bats this spring, a far cry from last year's exhibition season, when he went 18-for-75 (.240). But getting off to a good start wasn't really a problem for Moustakas in 2012. He hit .277/.346/.496 with 13 homers in his first 69 games but went into a deep funk thereafter and only hit .212 with seven homers in his final 80 games. Moustakas' 0.68 GB/FB was the third-lowest in baseball, and that would have been great if he displayed the same power he did in the minors (46 homers in 777 at-bats at Double-A and Triple-A). However, he only hit a homer on nine percent of his fly balls, which is about league average. Getting that up to around 13 or 14 percent would make all the difference in the world in his home-run total and batting average, helping him go from a .240 and 20 home-run player to a .260 and 30 home-run player. His minor league history suggests he has that type of pop in his bat.


Ryan Raburn, 2B CLE - If only MLB gave out awards for the preseason -- Raburn would be an MVP candidate. He hit four homers and had a .960 OPS in 2011, six with a .994 in 2012 and already has four round-trippers with a 1.859 OPS in nine games this spring. Unfortunately, when the games start counting, Raburn hasn't been able to stay healthy or match his spring potency with the bat. Raburn is also one of the league's worst fielders with a minus-19.6 UZR over 566 games in his career. Even if he makes the Indians club, he won't be anything but a backup second baseman and fourth outfielder.


Alex Avila, C DET - Avila is only hitting .167 this spring but his batting eye is in midseason form. He has walked eight times in 10 games. But fantasy owners want to know if Avila is going to return to his 2011 form and I just don't see that happening. His 19 homers that season look like a major anomaly brought on by Avila suddenly becoming a fly-ball hitter and experiencing a jump in HR/FB. And his .295 batting average was a product of a .366 BABIP. Avila was never a big power hitter in the minors -- he hit 13 homers in 549 at-bats at that level -- and he reverted to his groundball hitting ways last season. In 2013, Avila will probably settle somewhere between 2011's 0.93 GB/FB and 2012 1.56 GB/FB with the figure skewing in the direction of 2012, and that means he'll hit around 12-14 homers.


Jordan Zimmermann, SP WAS - According to the Washington Post, Zimmermann is dealing with "dead arm" that Nationals manager Davey Johnson said wasn't "anything to worry about." Even if it's routine fatigue, I am worried about Zimmermann's prospects for this season after he fizzled down the stretch with a 4.84 ERA in his final eight starts. The Nationals protected Zimmermann as best they could - he threw 6 2/3 inning or fewer in 23 of his 32 starts and didn't exceed seven in any of them. But he still had an increase of 38 1/3 innings from 2011. He finished with a 2.94 ERA last season but his FIP was 3.51 and xFIP was 3.78. He has had a K/9 close to 7.0 the last two seasons so don't buy him as a SP2 based on his ERA alone.


Jair Jurrjens, SP BAL - Jurrjens needs to have a good spring to make Baltimore's rotation but so far he has picked up where he left off in 2012. After making the National League All-Star team in 2011, Jurrjens was downright awful last season regardless of how you look at it. He had a 6.89 ERA, 5.64 FIP, 5.71 xFIP and 1.06 K/BB. His command has looked just as bad this spring as he has walked six batters and allowed nine hits in 5 2/3 innings. His 2011 season - 13-6, 2.96 ERA - is looking more and more like a result of a .269 BABIP and 81 percent left-on-base percentage. Jurrjens FIP was 3.99 that season and right now he's closer to being out of baseball than to ever posting an ERA below 4.00 for a major league team again.

[Shortstop]

Jose Tabata looking great this spring too

Yes indeed, Tabata is having a nice spring so far. Marte is also having a very strong spring, hitting at a .421 clip.

[dynamite140]

dont forget about ryan braun

[playersonly69]

Tough day for me today

[Robber]

Keep an eye on how some key guys do in wbc

[koz-man]

I agree that Adrian Gonzalez will have a good year. Now that he his settled in LA.

[LordVodka]

Do you think Halladay will return to his former self?

[Shortstop]

I saw Jackie Bradley Jr. play at South Carolina and I knew he'd be in The Show some day soon.

I still think Johan Santana is a top-notch starter and is well worth picking up.

[freeVICK]

looking for a cheap source of HRs and RBIs. guys available are garrett jones, reynolds, plouffe, ludwick, quentin, chris carter, LoMo... just to name a few

who would you go with

[stevenash]

looking for a cheap source of HRs and RBIs.
who would you go with

Maxwell: Houston

[oiler]

quentin would be the answer if he could stay healthy but his track record sucks

[freeVICK]

Maxwell? Never heard of the dude. I guess he hit 18 last year in part time work but do I really want a 6th hole guy on the Astros (with garbage avg)?

[dynamite140]

watch out for the astros. They are not going to be the bottom in the al west.

[freeVICK]

watch out for the astros. They are not going to be the bottom in the al west.

have you seen their lineup??? and have you seen the other teams in the al west?

[stevenash]

P Erasmo Ramirez His stuff isn't refined enough yet to make us believe that his 1.00 WHIP from last season is legit. Consider that his .238 BABIP considerably discounted his overall numbers. Good things ahead but we're not totally sold on the 22 year old for 2013. His heavy fly ball rate with an average contact rate is going to increase the runs scored in the shortened fences of Safeco this season.

P Eric Stults Don't buy into the 1.20 WHIP from a season ago, low K/I .56, heavy FB rate, lucky BABIP (262), and fences moving in.

P Ervin Santana Drop in fastball isn't as pronounced as some have made it out to be. Only 1 MPH less than his 3 year average coming into 2012. ERA was distorted by 40-50 points thanks to poor Strand Rate (.67), Struggled on the road last season and the 19% HR/FB rate will neutralize this season...improving his ERA considerably.

P Felix Doubront Struggles at home (475 SLG) due to high fly ball rates (HRs), and horrible runners stranded rate (.69) erodes his core numbers. He does have a good K/I ratio to overcome these deficiencies, but he hasn't shown to be a cerebral pitcher.
P Felix Hernandez Felix isn't quite the same pitcher that he was several years ago. His fastball speed has dropped from 95 to 92 MPH, and his quality starts have dropped from a high of 29 in '09 and '10 to 22 and 21 in the last 2 years. Still his dominance remains .96 K/I and his walk rate has improved 2.17 BB/9. Still a top 10-15 option.

P Francisco Liriano Fastball returned to 93 MPH last season, but the results weren't much better. Poor Strand Rate (.65) is puzzling for a pitcher with a 1.07 K/I ratio...but the BB% rate of 5% is a good indication that he can't make his pitch when he needs to...It's a shame that he can't be relied on as hitters rarely square him up. Possible move to NL may spring some life, if hitters aren't patient.

P Gio Gonzalez Career season in '12: 21 Wins/1.13 WHIP/2.89 ERA. Repeatable? Maybe not. Consider that he only tossed 22 Quality Starts which typically translates to 15 Wins. His .264 BABIP saves him from a considerable inflation in WHIP, and his 5% HR/FB rate is going to increase in 2013. PEDs issue hangs over his head heading into 2013.

P Henderson Alvarez Henderson isn't a high K/I guy (.42), rather he gets by with his high ground ball rate (57%). Still he's going to have to walk a fine line given his 92% K zone contact rate...

P Hiroki Kuroda Solid 2nd Half (3.45 ERA / 1.12 WHIP) Continues to get it done with 52% GB rate, but 76% Strand Rate is still elevated for a pitcher with a .76 K/I rate. Wins were bloated by 3 based on Deserved Wins of 14.

P Hisashi Iwakuma ERA was understated thanks to 81% Strand Rate, which will ne unsustainable moving forward with a .83 K/I. Very solid 51% groundball rate makes a sub 1.30 WHIP achievable moving forward.

P Homer Bailey In 2012, Bailey finally reached the point where he's considered fantasy relevant....and there might be more upside ahead. He was absolutely a stud on the road last season with his .292 SLG against...at home was another story: .526 SLG against. Clearly the home field isn't an advantage when Bailey is up in the zone. He's been slowly trending as a groundball pitcher (45% in '12) and if he can continue that progression, he could become a valuable commodity.

P Ian Kennedy Elevated and unlucky BABIP (.299) hurt his overall numbers as did his .73 strand rate. '12 was clearly not the magical season that 2011 was, but it was more of a true look at his talent level. More of the same expected in 2013.

[koz-man]

He has not looked disciplined from the plate though at all...

Can it be as bad as Stubbs ? I agree a little more regular playing time in Minors can only help.

I'm excited for Hamilton, but he needs time. If he is up early, then something bad happened with Choo/Bruce/Ludwick with injuries or being busts. I just expect him up late August/September and see what happens.

I forgot about Xavier Paul on the roster. I though maybe Dusty might carry Billy for late inning defense and use as pinch runner. But the reds have 5 outfielders.

[Shortstop]

It will be interesting to see how Gio Gonzalez performs with the PED issues in the back of his mind...