Appreciate the answer. I really do, most guys don't respond when I ask them that question.
Long term there is absolutely no question the play is the ML.
I created this thread right here on SBR.
https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...5-2-2-5-a.html
Let me quote myself...
From 2013 thru 2017 there were 2832 games in 1-A. Of those 2832 games, there were 265 games (9.3%) where the close was 2.5 or less. That's 9% of your available games that close at 2.5 points or less.
Of those 265 games, 4 of them ended with the underdog covering with either +1.5, +2, or +2.5. That is 1.5% of the total games. In other words, 98.51% of the time.
if you took the +1.5, +2, +2.5, the numbers would make absolutely no difference whatsoever....
Don't confuse your power numbers with the probability of the event outcome being Northwestern winning by 1 or 2 points.
The probability of that happening is about 1.5%. I gave you 5 year data, 10 year data is even more convincing. 10 year data suggest the outcome of a dog needing those 1-2 points is 1.1%.
A dog needing 1.5-2-2.5 has to win ATS has happened 7 times (1.1%)
7 times in 612 games over the last 10 years in NCAA Football taking the points would have helped you. 7.
On the other hand, dogs getting those numbers won outright last year 19 times. Just last year.
Good luck, I hope you win it.
Cheers, man!
Appreciated you not getting all pissed off, some guys are too sensitive on these boards if you ask them a question.