[Pivotpoint]

Nice post Pivotpoint!

One of the few reasons I come here is to have civil discussions and hopefully pick up some tips. Board can get sloppy on the weekend when half the people are either drunk, stupid or both.


I'm waiting for ASU + 10 . Still sitting at + 9 1/2

I've moved this game up to 2 units if I can get 10. I will add additional units on anything above 10 and would be estatic to get the Devils + 10 1/2. I believe Oregon will win, but this game will be closer than many expect. Nice to have a great Thursday night game to look forward to. Good luck with your choices, boys.

I'll throw out another juicy morsel.

ASU 5-0 ATS IN LAST FIVE PAC 10 as Home Pups.

ASU 4-1 ATS as WEEKDAY PUPS.

[Urbanwildlife]

It is all good information, but go DUCKS!

[texhooper]

Oregon played in Washington State and that is one tough place to play, and they did quite well!

they didn't actually play at washington state's house...they played at the seahawks stadium, the name escapes me...

i know you're convinced regardless, just sharing. no way would i take asu in this game, personally. pretty safe to say that neither team has really played anyone though (oregon hasn't played a true road game either), but no way you take a short number against the ducks, especially against a perennial nobody like arizona state anyway.

you can be hanging in the whole game and still lose by 21.

[texhooper]

pivotpoint beat me to a couple of points there...

[Urbanwildlife]

but no way you take a short number against the ducks, especially against a perennial nobody like arizona state anyway.

you can be hanging in the whole game and still lose by 21.

You are a very smart man texhopper!

[sparky29]

I'm an ASU alum-I'm staying away from this game and just hoping the Devils can put up a good fight. The only advantage I see for ASU is that Oregons freshman QB is basically playing his first true road game of his career. When Oregon played WSU a few weeks ago it was played in Seattle not in Pullman (basically a nuetral site with as many OU fans attending as there were WSU fans).

[Pivotpoint]

they didn't actually play at washington state's house...they played at the seahawks stadium, the name escapes me...

i know you're convinced regardless, just sharing. no way would i take asu in this game, personally. pretty safe to say that neither team has really played anyone though (oregon hasn't played a true road game either), but no way you take a short number against the ducks, especially against a perennial nobody like arizona state anyway.

you can be hanging in the whole game and still lose by 21.

That would be CenturyLink Stadium.

I'll share some additional data. Hopefully somebody will benefit.

Oregon has been very strong the last few years, no denying. But, ASU has had some great teams

I'll end with this. The media loves to talk about Offense, QB's, Offensive skill players. Easy to get saturated with gaudy offensive stats. Can sway your opinions. Think about it.

I used to eat it up and struggle to try and hit above 50 % . Win some lose some. I then started to focus more on Defense and Coaching. It was amazing how my numbers started to improve. I simply like to take strong defenses, especially at home getting points.

You know the offensive numbers on the Ducks. #8 total offense, but ASU #24. Yes, Ducks #2 scoring Offense.

More importantly with my strategy, I don't see Oregon in any of MY TOP 25 defensive stats. Correct me if I missed one.

ASU # 4 PASSING Defense (137 pypg)

ASU # 10 Total Defense (276.2 typg)

ASU # 12 Scoring Defense (13.6 ppg)

Try it when you cap games. Maybe it will work for you or at least get you off silly plays. (Not saying ducks are silly play)

21 Points ? Yes, this is college and it wouldn't be the first time if the Ducks blew this open late after a tight battle. All you can do is cap the game as hard as you can and bet accordingly. That's all I got on this game.

This is the college forum, but I'm more interested in the NFL game on the same night. I'm going to have a couple units on ASU, but going large on the 49ers on Thursday night at the right number. Defense and Coaching as I explained above are some of the main reasons. I have some great trends on this game that caught my eye. Number sitting 49'ers - 7 (- 103) Hoping for 6 1/2 . To much juice now at 6 1/2 (- 119) for me. Public watched Giant beat down of Niners, Seahawks shocked Pats. Seahawks got lucky and were outstated. Seahawks #27 O will really struggle against a pissed off and strong defense at the Stick with Harbaugh pacing the sidelines. I think the Niners roll here.

Whether you like the Ducks or Sun Devils, play that side straight up. Consider a small play of your pick along with the niners as a 2 team parlay for kicks.

[jfamis]

Bad luck. Ducks only 2-4 ATS. Only covers @ home against Washington and Zona.

Interesting point. Would you believe that between the 3 teams mentioned above they have only ONE COVER ON THE ROAD ?

Zona covered against Stanford. That's it!

Granted, Ducks somehow only had one game so far on the road against Washington St. Cougars suck and this will be there first real test on the road. Home field is huge in College football.

Sun Devils have unblemished ATS record with one push.

Number went to 10 then back down to 9 1/2

Hope the public shows the Ducks some love. Can almost count on it and will wait for Sun Devils getting double digits plus at home.

Those were all backdoor covers though... Oregon was up 50-3 against Arkansas State in the middle of the second quarter. They played walk-ons on defense against Arkansas State's starters in the second half...

Against Fresno State, the Ducks covered in the first half, took the foot off the gas in the second and let Fresno State back in...

Against Washington State, WSU didn't score the whole second half until the final minutes of the game when subs were in when it was 51-19...

Ducks are coming off a bye and being #3 when they thought they'd be #2 in BCS, they might have something to prove...

This will be the first real test for ASU's defense as well. I saw ASU has racked up some stats for sacks, but three of their opponents so far give up the most sacks of any teams in the country... In fact, Cal and Colorado's QB's are the most sacked in the country.

ASU's strength of schedule is ranked higher than Oregon's, but that's likely due in part to having an SEC and B1G opponent compared to Sun Belt and MWC. The opponents ASU has played in Pac-12 are arguably much worse than who Oregon has played: Arizona, WSU, and UW vs. Cal, Utah and Colorado...

[jfamis]

That would be CenturyLink Stadium.

I'll share some additional data. Hopefully somebody will benefit.

Oregon has been very strong the last few years, no denying. But, ASU has had some great teams

I'll end with this. The media loves to talk about Offense, QB's, Offensive skill players. Easy to get saturated with gaudy offensive stats. Can sway your opinions. Think about it.

I used to eat it up and struggle to try and hit above 50 % . Win some lose some. I then started to focus more on Defense and Coaching. It was amazing how my numbers started to improve. I simply like to take strong defenses, especially at home getting points.

You know the offensive numbers on the Ducks. #8 total offense, but ASU #24. Yes, Ducks #2 scoring Offense.

More importantly with my strategy, I don't see Oregon in any of MY TOP 25 defensive stats. Correct me if I missed one.

ASU # 4 PASSING Defense (137 pypg)

ASU # 10 Total Defense (276.2 typg)

ASU # 12 Scoring Defense (13.6 ppg)

Try it when you cap games. Maybe it will work for you or at least get you off silly plays. (Not saying ducks are silly play)

21 Points ? Yes, this is college and it wouldn't be the first time if the Ducks blew this open late after a tight battle. All you can do is cap the game as hard as you can and bet accordingly. That's all I got on this game.

This is the college forum, but I'm more interested in the NFL game on the same night. I'm going to have a couple units on ASU, but going large on the 49ers on Thursday night at the right number. Defense and Coaching as I explained above are some of the main reasons. I have some great trends on this game that caught my eye. Number sitting 49'ers - 7 (- 103) Hoping for 6 1/2 . To much juice now at 6 1/2 (- 119) for me. Public watched Giant beat down of Niners, Seahawks shocked Pats. Seahawks got lucky and were outstated. Seahawks #27 O will really struggle against a pissed off and strong defense at the Stick with Harbaugh pacing the sidelines. I think the Niners roll here.

Whether you like the Ducks or Sun Devils, play that side straight up. Consider a small play of your pick along with the niners as a 2 team parlay for kicks.

I addressed this in my other post, but Oregon's defensive stats are very, very skewed because so many back-ups have got substantial time and given up a lot of points... Stats to look at for Oregon are third-downs and red zone defense...

I wouldn't bet on this game if I were any of you... My guess of final score would be 42-17...

ASU has also played some truly inept offenses... Three of their opponents were playing with a back-up QB...