Originally posted on 10/17/2012:

Quote Originally Posted by Pivotpoint View Post
That would be CenturyLink Stadium.

I'll share some additional data. Hopefully somebody will benefit.

Oregon has been very strong the last few years, no denying. But, ASU has had some great teams

I'll end with this. The media loves to talk about Offense, QB's, Offensive skill players. Easy to get saturated with gaudy offensive stats. Can sway your opinions. Think about it.

I used to eat it up and struggle to try and hit above 50 % . Win some lose some. I then started to focus more on Defense and Coaching. It was amazing how my numbers started to improve. I simply like to take strong defenses, especially at home getting points.

You know the offensive numbers on the Ducks. #8 total offense, but ASU #24. Yes, Ducks #2 scoring Offense.

More importantly with my strategy, I don't see Oregon in any of MY TOP 25 defensive stats. Correct me if I missed one.

ASU # 4 PASSING Defense (137 pypg)

ASU # 10 Total Defense (276.2 typg)

ASU # 12 Scoring Defense (13.6 ppg)

Try it when you cap games. Maybe it will work for you or at least get you off silly plays. (Not saying ducks are silly play)

21 Points ? Yes, this is college and it wouldn't be the first time if the Ducks blew this open late after a tight battle. All you can do is cap the game as hard as you can and bet accordingly. That's all I got on this game.

This is the college forum, but I'm more interested in the NFL game on the same night. I'm going to have a couple units on ASU, but going large on the 49ers on Thursday night at the right number. Defense and Coaching as I explained above are some of the main reasons. I have some great trends on this game that caught my eye. Number sitting 49'ers - 7 (- 103) Hoping for 6 1/2 . To much juice now at 6 1/2 (- 119) for me. Public watched Giant beat down of Niners, Seahawks shocked Pats. Seahawks got lucky and were outstated. Seahawks #27 O will really struggle against a pissed off and strong defense at the Stick with Harbaugh pacing the sidelines. I think the Niners roll here.

Whether you like the Ducks or Sun Devils, play that side straight up. Consider a small play of your pick along with the niners as a 2 team parlay for kicks.
I addressed this in my other post, but Oregon's defensive stats are very, very skewed because so many back-ups have got substantial time and given up a lot of points... Stats to look at for Oregon are third-downs and red zone defense...

I wouldn't bet on this game if I were any of you... My guess of final score would be 42-17...

ASU has also played some truly inept offenses... Three of their opponents were playing with a back-up QB...