[turbozed]

Saturday 11.18.2017 at 09:00 PM ET

• U.S. Broadcast: Fox Sports 1 | Prelims: UFC Fight Pass
• Name: UFC Fight Night 121: Werdum vs. Tybura
• Also Known As: UFC Fight Night Sydney
• Promotion: Ultimate Fighting Championship
• Ownership: WME-IMG
• Venue: Qudos Bank Arena
• Location: Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
• Enclosure: Octagon
• Number of MMA Bouts: 13
• Event Pages: Sherdog | Wikipedia | Promoter

Well we've been blessed with some great MMA cards recently so we were bound to get a stinker. Let's make some money fellas. Discuss!

[turbozed]

Here's my analysis of Rawlings / Jessy Rose-Clark.

I see this as a close fight under normal circumstances. But with only a week's notice, Rawlings should win this.

Jessy Rose-Clark coming off an impressive victory over Carina Damm so gets to fight in the UFC for the first time since it's Australia. On paper she is 2-3-1 in her last 6 fights but realistically should be 2-4. Jessy has shown vastly improved striking in the past year since training at Syndicate MMA in Las Vegas. Unfortunately, she only looks good when her opponents give her room to work. Her fancy footwork is there to set distance and be ready for counters, but when pressured and moving backwards, she gets overwhelmed and lets her opponents land on her. Her defense is good against single strikes, but when opponents come in with combos she's pretty hittable. Harding, Sorenson, and Kaufman all were able to win striking exchanges with her. Jessy does have a solid chin though, and will stay in the fight despite getting tagged. Jessy will be a large 125'er. The last time she took a fight in Japan at 125, she missed weight and it was verbally agreed that she would be no more than 138 lbs on fight day. Apparently that didn't happen and so the fight was turned into a NC. She just fought 3 months ago at 135, so who knows how this weight cut will go with only one week's notice. Keep an eye on weigh-ins here.

Bec Rawling's striking has also improved recently working with Del Fiero at Alliance. She looks fast and her footwork looks pretty good. Unfortunately, she's been on the losing end of her last two fights. The first against PVZ where she got jump kicked to the face. The 2nd fight she looked game but was just outworked by the much faster and more technical Tecia Torres. Torres was able to counter Rawlings' pressure game and combos but stepping back and throwing counter kicks to stop momentum. Despite losing, she showed a pressuring style that would likely give Jessy a lot of problems. This has the makings of a standup battle. JRC seems to have fallen in love with striking and has chosen to strike with her last 3 opponents, despite the first two winning at that game. Being the bigger fighter, she might choose to grapple, but without a good TD game, she'll probably be stuck in the clinch where Rawlings is more active with elbows and knees. In the striking game, Rawlings should be able to pressure and move forward to score more points and win a decision. How is the size difference going to play out here is the big question. Will Rawlings have more success being faster, or will she have a harder time pressuring the bigger fighter?

I don't see a finish happening in this fight, but the short notice and hard weight cut for Jessy Rose-Clark introduce some variables that make it hard for me to bet the decision prop. On regular notice, Rose-Clark Decision at +259 would've had some value. Right now I just like Rawlings ML.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Saturday 11.18.2017 at 09:00 PM ET

• U.S. Broadcast: Fox Sports 1 | Prelims: UFC Fight Pass
• Name: UFC Fight Night 121: Werdum vs. Tybura
• Also Known As: UFC Fight Night Sydney
• Promotion: Ultimate Fighting Championship
• Ownership: WME-IMG
• Venue: Qudos Bank Arena
• Location: Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
• Enclosure: Octagon
• Number of MMA Bouts: 13
• Event Pages: Sherdog | Wikipedia | Promoter

Well we've been blessed with some great MMA cards recently so we were bound to get a stinker. Let's make some money fellas. Discuss!

The China card is even worse

[Hugo de Naranja]

Here's my analysis of Rawlings / Jessy Rose-Clark.

I see this as a close fight under normal circumstances. But with only a week's notice, Rawlings should win this.

Jessy Rose-Clark coming off an impressive victory over Carina Damm so gets to fight in the UFC for the first time since it's Australia. On paper she is 2-3-1 in her last 6 fights but realistically should be 2-4. Jessy has shown vastly improved striking in the past year since training at Syndicate MMA in Las Vegas. Unfortunately, she only looks good when her opponents give her room to work. Her fancy footwork is there to set distance and be ready for counters, but when pressured and moving backwards, she gets overwhelmed and lets her opponents land on her. Her defense is good against single strikes, but when opponents come in with combos she's pretty hittable. Harding, Sorenson, and Kaufman all were able to win striking exchanges with her. Jessy does have a solid chin though, and will stay in the fight despite getting tagged. Jessy will be a large 125'er. The last time she took a fight in Japan at 125, she missed weight and it was verbally agreed that she would be no more than 138 lbs on fight day. Apparently that didn't happen and so the fight was turned into a NC. She just fought 3 months ago at 135, so who knows how this weight cut will go with only one week's notice. Keep an eye on weigh-ins here.

Bec Rawling's striking has also improved recently working with Del Fiero at Alliance. She looks fast and her footwork looks pretty good. Unfortunately, she's been on the losing end of her last two fights. The first against PVZ where she got jump kicked to the face. The 2nd fight she looked game but was just outworked by the much faster and more technical Tecia Torres. Torres was able to counter Rawlings' pressure game and combos but stepping back and throwing counter kicks to stop momentum. Despite losing, she showed a pressuring style that would likely give Jessy a lot of problems. This has the makings of a standup battle. JRC seems to have fallen in love with striking and has chosen to strike with her last 3 opponents, despite the first two winning at that game. Being the bigger fighter, she might choose to grapple, but without a good TD game, she'll probably be stuck in the clinch where Rawlings is more active with elbows and knees. In the striking game, Rawlings should be able to pressure and move forward to score more points and win a decision. How is the size difference going to play out here is the big question. Will Rawlings have more success being faster, or will she have a harder time pressuring the bigger fighter?

I don't see a finish happening in this fight, but the short notice and hard weight cut for Jessy Rose-Clark introduce some variables that make it hard for me to bet the decision prop. On regular notice, Rose-Clark Decision at +259 would've had some value. Right now I just like Rawlings ML.

Good write up!

[turbozed]

Good write up!

Thanks! Let me know what you see if you end up taking a look at the fight. I'd like to know whether I'm overestimating Rawlings' striking game and whether or not you think Rose-Clark will be significantly stronger than Rawlings, since that would have a significant impact on the fight.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Thanks! Let me know what you see if you end up taking a look at the fight. I'd like to know whether I'm overestimating Rawlings' striking game and whether or not you think Rose-Clark will be significantly stronger than Rawlings, since that would have a significant impact on the fight.

I'm not planning to look into it too much since it's not a fight that I plan to bet (big). I'll let you know if I see anything of interest.

[TPowell]

Here's my analysis of Rawlings / Jessy Rose-Clark.

I see this as a close fight under normal circumstances. But with only a week's notice, Rawlings should win this.

Jessy Rose-Clark coming off an impressive victory over Carina Damm so gets to fight in the UFC for the first time since it's Australia. On paper she is 2-3-1 in her last 6 fights but realistically should be 2-4. Jessy has shown vastly improved striking in the past year since training at Syndicate MMA in Las Vegas. Unfortunately, she only looks good when her opponents give her room to work. Her fancy footwork is there to set distance and be ready for counters, but when pressured and moving backwards, she gets overwhelmed and lets her opponents land on her. Her defense is good against single strikes, but when opponents come in with combos she's pretty hittable. Harding, Sorenson, and Kaufman all were able to win striking exchanges with her. Jessy does have a solid chin though, and will stay in the fight despite getting tagged. Jessy will be a large 125'er. The last time she took a fight in Japan at 125, she missed weight and it was verbally agreed that she would be no more than 138 lbs on fight day. Apparently that didn't happen and so the fight was turned into a NC. She just fought 3 months ago at 135, so who knows how this weight cut will go with only one week's notice. Keep an eye on weigh-ins here.

Bec Rawling's striking has also improved recently working with Del Fiero at Alliance. She looks fast and her footwork looks pretty good. Unfortunately, she's been on the losing end of her last two fights. The first against PVZ where she got jump kicked to the face. The 2nd fight she looked game but was just outworked by the much faster and more technical Tecia Torres. Torres was able to counter Rawlings' pressure game and combos but stepping back and throwing counter kicks to stop momentum. Despite losing, she showed a pressuring style that would likely give Jessy a lot of problems. This has the makings of a standup battle. JRC seems to have fallen in love with striking and has chosen to strike with her last 3 opponents, despite the first two winning at that game. Being the bigger fighter, she might choose to grapple, but without a good TD game, she'll probably be stuck in the clinch where Rawlings is more active with elbows and knees. In the striking game, Rawlings should be able to pressure and move forward to score more points and win a decision. How is the size difference going to play out here is the big question. Will Rawlings have more success being faster, or will she have a harder time pressuring the bigger fighter?

I don't see a finish happening in this fight, but the short notice and hard weight cut for Jessy Rose-Clark introduce some variables that make it hard for me to bet the decision prop. On regular notice, Rose-Clark Decision at +259 would've had some value. Right now I just like Rawlings ML.

I like Clark's progression the last 3 fights. Since coming to Alliance to train, she looked very stationary against Sorenson on the feet by just standing in front of her and then her next fight against Sarah Kauffman she moved around a lot and displayed better footwork or at least more movement but she was way too passive and got pushed into fighting off her back foot a lot. I know a lot of that could have to do with Kauffman being a powerful woman and by far the best fighter Clark has faced, but still. In her last fight against Damm she used that footwork and movement but she stayed in the middle of the cage and engaged the opponent instead of getting pushed back to the cage and fighting off the back foot again. 3 fights and clear progression at each step IMO. A great thing to wager on. I'm not in love with her wrestling or ground game though. Her get-up game isn't bad but if she gets taken down by a competent wrestler, she is staying there until the end of the round. I've saw her top game a little bit and she isn't very technical or heavy on top (at BW).

[TPowell]

Thanks! Let me know what you see if you end up taking a look at the fight. I'd like to know whether I'm overestimating Rawlings' striking game and whether or not you think Rose-Clark will be significantly stronger than Rawlings, since that would have a significant impact on the fight.

I think so but outside of the clinch possibly, I don't think it'll matter as much given the way JRC fights. OVER is definitely the play IMO

[rsynweap84]

I am going with rawlings cuz she has a big dike ass and she post pics of it, too.

I do think this match-up will be good for her striking style. Leaning decision myself til’ I see Clark at the live weigh-ins.

[TPowell]

Weigh-ins will definitely be key. Not putting ANYTHING on this one until afterwards but leaning towards Clark by decision for sure. Will have to watch more film on Rawlings tomorrow because I'm exhausted now.

[turbozed]

I think so but outside of the clinch possibly, I don't think it'll matter as much given the way JRC fights. OVER is definitely the play IMO

I have the over in an open parlay but not confident enough to recommend since there are question marks on late notice and the weight cut.

I've also noticed the improvement in Jessy's striking game. Looked terrible just a year ago but much better now. I don't think we should put too much stock against her tooling Carina Damm though. Damm gave her the exact striking style matchup to make Jessy look good. Damm was slow, didn't put combos together, and stood right in Jessy's preferred range. Damm is also 38, has been on a significant downslide, and I think lost 7 of her 8 fights outside of Brazil. Incidentally, the fact that she looked so good against Damm may be the reason why the odds are so close here.

Jessy hasn't shown any signs that she can fight well being pressured, and Rawlings looks more than capable to bring it to her the way Kaufman was able to. Rawlings looks to be a faster and a more diverse striker than Kaufman so there's a good chance that she does what Kaufman did to Jessy in the last 2 rounds of their fight. That Kaufman fight was only 7 months ago and I'm not so sure she's learned to counter in that time period.

[TPowell]

I have the over in an open parlay but not confident enough to recommend since there are question marks on late notice and the weight cut.

I've also noticed the improvement in Jessy's striking game. Looked terrible just a year ago but much better now. I don't think we should put too much stock against her tooling Carina Damm though. Damm gave her the exact striking style matchup to make Jessy look good. Damm was slow, didn't put combos together, and stood right in Jessy's preferred range. Damm is also 38, has been on a significant downslide, and I think lost 7 of her 8 fights outside of Brazil. Incidentally, the fact that she looked so good against Damm may be the reason why the odds are so close here.

Jessy hasn't shown any signs that she can fight well being pressured, and Rawlings looks more than capable to bring it to her the way Kaufman was able to. Rawlings looks to be a faster and a more diverse striker than Kaufman so there's a good chance that she does what Kaufman did to Jessy in the last 2 rounds of their fight. That Kaufman fight was only 7 months ago and I'm not so sure she's learned to counter in that time period.

True, but I think a lot of that was the power coming back at her. Kaufman has good power for a 135'er. At 125, I don't think Jessy will be as concerned about it so she should be able to move forward. I'm hoping for 2 things with this fight though.

1. The OVER numbers don't go crazy
2. Jessy makes weight and doesn't look awful

[turbozed]

Just finished capping the Means/Muhammad fight:


A year ago if these two were matched up it would seem like a great style matchup for Means. Means the taller and rangier southpaw fighter with accurate striking and dangerous both at range and in the clinch with knees and elbows. Belal looked incredibly hittable against another southpaw in Jouban, getting dropped 3 times in the fight before impressing everyone on the short notice debut in the 3rd round. Then of course, he had his lights put out last year by Luque with one punch. Belal had fought 3 times in about 4 months before getting KO'd so that might have contributed to it. It seemed a bit odd for a guy with the seemingly iron chin. In his two fights since, Belal has looked good, being able to overcome rangier and better strikers in Randy Brown and Jordan Mein. Admittedly, neither has shown the level of striking that Means has in the past but there must be some familiarity in fighting a similar type of fighter in 3 straight fights, especially since the clear path to victory for Belal is the same for each fight: clinch up, make it a dirty fight, make the other guy work, and slowly break the opponent down.

Tim Means started fighting professionally in 2004 and those 13 years of competition look to have caught up to him. The aggressive and stifling striking style hasn't been seen since August of 2016 where he lit up the debuting Homasi. Not a really stiff test for Means, who only appears to beat lower level UFC competition. Against Cowboy Oliveira, Means had little success getting outgrappled for most the fight. By the second round, he was completely on the defensive and looked to have completely emptied the gas tank before being tapping to the RNC. This was a bad look made worse since Cowboy didn't look fresh at all yet controlled Means rather easily. In his recent fight against Alex Garcia, he looked like a completely different fighter. The aggression and output was almost completely gone. It looks as if he completely changed around his gameplan to work around his cardio issues. While Means was able to defend takedowns and pot-shot Garcia at range, I don't think that Tim Means could avoid the grinding and ugly clinchfest that Belal will likely be able to put on him. If this was early 2016, Means as a -240 favorite would make sense, but after seeing his latest two performances, I see this line as being way off.

Can Means land a big left hand early and win? Possibly, but once a fighter becomes gunshy and less willing to pull the trigger, it rarely comes back. The implied odds are suggesting he wins this fight 7 out of 10 times. I'm not sure he wins this fight 5 out of 5 times. More likely than not, Belal clinches up and makes this an ugly fight that forces Means to just defend. +200 seems way off. Also, if Means employs the same outside gameplan as he did against Garcia, the over should've been set at 2.5 rds instead of 1.5.

[Shagdogy]

I was real disappointed in Means his last two fights as well. He looked real good the first time in there with Oliveira but then couldn't handle the grappling and pace the second time out. And yes, I thought he should've beat Garcia up badly. Strickland was able to land on him so often than I figured Means would do the same but with more painful strikes. Unfortunately, no.

The only thing that comes to mind (I haven't really refreshed by rewatching any fights yet) is that Means is very good in close range with his elbows and knees. Fighting him way inside the pocket and in the clinch is dangerous. i would want Belal to get in and get him right on the mat if he can. Hanging around in that dirty space is prob not a great plan. I would say Belal should be all the way out or all the way in. His head movement against Brown was very good and he avoided the rangey strikes well. I'll try to watch this and Rawlings/Clark and share what I see.

[turbozed]

I was real disappointed in Means his last two fights as well. He looked real good the first time in there with Oliveira but then couldn't handle the grappling and pace the second time out. And yes, I thought he should've beat Garcia up badly. Strickland was able to land on him so often than I figured Means would do the same but with more painful strikes. Unfortunately, no.

The only thing that comes to mind (I haven't really refreshed by rewatching any fights yet) is that Means is very good in close range with his elbows and knees. Fighting him way inside the pocket and in the clinch is dangerous. i would want Belal to get in and get him right on the mat if he can. Hanging around in that dirty space is prob not a great plan. I would say Belal should be all the way out or all the way in. His head movement against Brown was very good and he avoided the rangey strikes well. I'll try to watch this and Rawlings/Clark and share what I see.

Means threw 0 elbows and 1 knee in the fight against Garcia. Seemed like he wanted no part of the clinch. Maybe it's a one-off fight but he didn't really punish Cowboy Oliveira for clinching up either. I have a hard time seeing him keeping Belal off of him for too long considering he's more tenacious and has better cardio than either of those two. He'll really need to hurt Belal coming in, which is possible but looks less and less likely if you take his last two fights as a downward trend in athleticism.

Thanks for the feedback Shagy. Let me know what you see with the duel between Aussie bogan chicks. These are the only two fights I have looked into in-depth but will be taking a look at a few more throughout the week.

[JIBBBY]

MMA Mania write ups coming in -



125 lbs.: Alex Chambers vs. Nadia Kassem

Alex Chambers (5-3) — ranked No. 10 on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 20 — fell to Rose Namajunas in the opening round and dropped a decision to Aisling Daly at the Finale. She got back on track with a comeback submission of Kailin Curran, only to get thumped by Paige VanZant soon after.
This will be her first fight in 26 months.
In four professional fights, Nadia Kassem (4-0) has spent a combined 2:22 in the cage, dispatching all opponents by (technical) knockout. Those victories included two at Strawweight, where she also earned an amateur win, and two at Flyweight.
The 21-year-old was originally set to debut in June before suffering an injury.
Before you ask: Yes, Kassem’s record is entirely empty. She has fought, in order, opponents who were 0-0, 0-4, 0-0, and 0-0. One of them, Belinda Sedgwick, is almost 40 and has been stopped in less than 100 seconds in all of her fights. To make my life more difficult, I can only find footage of about 30 seconds of that 2:22, plus some uninspiring amateur Muay Thai footage from 2015.
The next PVZ she is not.
Then again, Chambers has been dreadfully uninspiring in UFC, is coming off a huge layoff, is nearly 40, and really doesn’t like getting pressured. This is Kassem’s fight to lose — assuming she has at least eight minutes’ worth of gas, she walks down Chambers for either an accumulation stoppage or wide decision.
Prediction: Kassem via unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Jenel Lausa vs. Eric Shelton

Jenel Lausa (7-3) — a former professional boxer — took home the PXC Flyweight title last year before roughing up Yao Zhikui in his Octagon debut. No good deed goes unpunished, though, and “Demolition Man” was subsequently selected to welcome top prospect Magomed Bibulatov to UFC, losing a one-sided decision in April.
He is an inch shorter and three years older than Eric Shelton (10-4).
Shelton’s run on TUF: “Tournament of Champions” ended in the semifinals with a majority decision loss to teammate Tim Elliott. His UFC run has been similarly contentious, dropping a close split decision to Alexandre Pantoja in his promotional debut before dropping a controversial one to Jarred Brooks six months later.
Half of his professional wins have come by submission.
Shelton legitimately lost to Pantoja, but he beat Brooks, and 15 of the 17 other media sites correlated on MMADecisions agree with me. He’s a legitimately elite Flyweight who has faced some bad breaks, packing quality striking, strong wrestling and effective scrambles. While Lausa is significantly better on the ground and at getting off of it than one would expect from a converted boxer, he’ll struggle with Shelton’s takedown game.
Lausa has legitimate power and skill on the feet, but not enough that he can blunt Shelton’s wrestling onslaught. Shelton hits takedown after takedown en route to a decision victory.
Prediction: Shelton via unanimous decision

265 lbs.: Tai Tuivasa vs. Rashad Coulter

Tai Tuivasa (7-0) made the jump from rugby to mixed martial arts (MMA) in 2012 and got off to a roaring start, stopping multiple opponents in less than one minute apiece. After knocking out Brandon Sosoli in 21 seconds for the Australian FC Heavyweight title, he took on UFC veteran James McSweeney and forced him to bow out between rounds.
He stands two inches taller than Rashad Coulter (8-2) and, going by their last weigh-ins, should have about 20 pounds on him.
Following his first career defeat, Coulter rattled off five knockouts in less than three minutes apiece, appearing in both Bellator and Legacy during that span. This past May, he stepped up on short notice to fight Chase Sherman and earned “Fight of the Night” in an insane back-and-forth brawl in which he ultimately came up short.
Six of his eight (technical) knockout wins have come inside the first round.
Tuivasa is still just 24, but those of you hoping for the next Mark Hunt or Ray Sefo are going to be disappointed. He’s a big ol’ boy with legit power and a good eye for elbows inside, but he was gassed to death after five minutes with McSweeney and has some fairly iffy grappling outside his raw strength.
Luckily, Coulter’s going to come in there and bang with him. “Daywalker’s” only real hope is that the concrete slab he has instead of a head holds up long enough for Tuivasa to burn himself out trying to bust it, but with Tuivasa’s size and power that’s just not feasible. “Bam Bam” bulldozes Coulter early.
Prediction: Tuivasa via first-round technical knockout

[Shagdogy]

Means threw 0 elbows and 1 knee in the fight against Garcia. Seemed like he wanted no part of the clinch. Maybe it's a one-off fight but he didn't really punish Cowboy Oliveira for clinching up either. I have a hard time seeing him keeping Belal off of him for too long considering he's more tenacious and has better cardio than either of those two. He'll really need to hurt Belal coming in, which is possible but looks less and less likely if you take his last two fights as a downward trend in athleticism.

Thanks for the feedback Shagy. Let me know what you see with the duel between Aussie bogan chicks. These are the only two fights I have looked into in-depth but will be taking a look at a few more throughout the week.

Checked out Rawlings/Clark. Short story is I don't plan on playing this fight at all at current odds. The short notice weight cut for Clark is troublesome for one. Gotta go coach a hockey game... I'll explain more in depth later.

[Shagdogy]

Being the bigger fighter, she might choose to grapple, but without a good TD game, she'll probably be stuck in the clinch where Rawlings is more active with elbows and knees. In the striking game, Rawlings should be able to pressure and move forward to score more points and win a decision. How is the size difference going to play out here is the big question. Will Rawlings have more success being faster, or will she have a harder time pressuring the bigger fighter?

I don't see a finish happening in this fight, but the short notice and hard weight cut for Jessy Rose-Clark introduce some variables that make it hard for me to bet the decision prop. On regular notice, Rose-Clark Decision at +259 would've had some value. Right now I just like Rawlings ML.

1. I don't expect to see much grappling in this fight. It's always hard to predict game plans but in front of the home crowd I have a feeling this girls will want to stand and bang and put on a show.

2. Are you sure that Rawlings is faster? I feel like JRC has the better hand speed. I think you're right about clinch strikes being a decent advantage to Rawlings, but coming forward at range or in the pocket I'm not sure that Rawlings has a big advantage. I actually think JRC looks a bit more crisp, and accurate with her hands, and less hittable. Her biggest issue is it is bad optics for the judges to be backing up and countering for an entire round. Example - I felt she won round 2 vs. Kaufman, but it's a round she would lose on a lot of cards. Either way, if they just stand and trade the whole fight, I can't find a significant edge either way, but I would lean towards JRC landing a bit more, or at least higher %.

3. Agreed that with a full camp, I would be looking to bet that JRC dec. prop. The weight cut on short notice totally changes that. For me it makes me want to stay away entirely. I'm not convinced enough in Rawlings to want to bet her, so since the situation isn't great for JRC, I'm out. Enjoy the fight.

[TPowell]

1. I don't expect to see much grappling in this fight. It's always hard to predict game plans but in front of the home crowd I have a feeling this girls will want to stand and bang and put on a show.

2. Are you sure that Rawlings is faster? I feel like JRC has the better hand speed. I think you're right about clinch strikes being a decent advantage to Rawlings, but coming forward at range or in the pocket I'm not sure that Rawlings has a big advantage. I actually think JRC looks a bit more crisp, and accurate with her hands, and less hittable. Her biggest issue is it is bad optics for the judges to be backing up and countering for an entire round. Example - I felt she won round 2 vs. Kaufman, but it's a round she would lose on a lot of cards. Either way, if they just stand and trade the whole fight, I can't find a significant edge either way, but I would lean towards JRC landing a bit more, or at least higher %.

3. Agreed that with a full camp, I would be looking to bet that JRC dec. prop. The weight cut on short notice totally changes that. For me it makes me want to stay away entirely. I'm not convinced enough in Rawlings to want to bet her, so since the situation isn't great for JRC, I'm out. Enjoy the fight.

Thanks Shag, I can't see how this results in a finish OUTSIDE of a crazy sub (I think Rawlings is probably more likely) but these girls will be standing and trading the whole fight more than likely.

[JIBBBY]

5 dimes lines as of 11/14...

UFC fight Night 121 - Heavyweight 5 rounds - Qudos Bank Arena - Sydney, Australia - FS1
Sat 11/18		1001 Marcin Tybura		+300	o2½ -115
11:59PM		1002 Fabricio Werdum		-360	u2½ -105
UFC fight Night 121 - Flyweight 3 rounds - Qudos Bank Arena - Sydney, Australia - FS1
Sat 11/18		1101 Jessica Rose Clark		+135	o2½ -250
11:59PM		1102 Bec Rawlings		-155	u2½ +210
UFC fight Night 121 - Welterweight 3 rounds. - Qudos Bank Arena - Sydney, Australia - FS1
Sat 11/18		1201 Belal Muhammad		+195	o1½ -220
11:30PM		1202 Tim Means		-235	u1½ +180
UFC fight Night 121 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Qudos Bank Arena - Sydney, Australia - FS1
Sat 11/18		1301 Bojan Velickovic		+125	o2½ -210
11:00PM		1302 Jake Matthews		-145	u2½ +175
UFC fight Night 121 - Middleweight 3 rounds - Qudos Bank Arena - Sydney, Australia - FS1
Sat 11/18		1401 Daniel Kelly		+210	o2½ -340
10:30PM		1402 Elias Theodorou		-250	u2½ +280
UFC fight Night 121 - Featherweight 3 rounds - Qudos Bank Arena - Sydney, Australia - FS1
Sat 11/18		1501 Shane Young		+450	o2½ +120
10:00PM		1502 Alexander Volkanovski		-600	u2½ -140
UFC fight Night 121 - Flyweight 3 rounds - Qudos Bank Arena - Sydney, Australia - FS1
Sat 11/18		1601 Ashkan Mokhtarian		+205	o2½ -130
9:30PM		1602 Ryan Benoit		-245	u2½ +110
UFC fight Night 121 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Qudos Bank Arena - Sydney, Australia - FS1
Sat 11/18		1701 Nik Lentz		+425	o2½ -230
9:00PM		1702 Will Brooks		-550	u2½ +190
UFC fight Night 121 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - Qudos Bank Arena - Sydney, Australia - FS1
Sat 11/18		1801 Anthony Hamilton		+135	o1½ +125
8:30PM		1802 Adam Wieczorek		-155	u1½ -145
UFC fight Night 121 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Qudos Bank Arena - Sydney, Australia - FS1
Sat 11/18		1901 Frank Camacho		-130	o2½ +120
8:00PM		1902 Damien Brown		+110	u2½ -140
UFC fight Night 121 - Strawweight 3 rounds - Qudos Bank Arena - Sydney, Australia - UFC Fight Pass
Sat 11/18		2001 Alex Chambers		+130	o1½ -150
7:30PM		2002 Nadia Kassem		-150	u1½ +130
UFC fight Night 121 - Flyweight 3 rounds - Qudos Bank Arena - Sydney, Australia - UFC Fight Pass
Sat 11/18		2101 Jenel Lausa		+290	o2½ -210
7:00PM		2102 Eric Shelton		-350	u2½ +175
UFC fight Night 121 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - Qudos Bank Arena - Sydney, Australia - UFC Fight Pass
Sat 11/18		2201 Rashad Coulter		+145	o1½ +150
6:30PM		2202 Tai Tuivasa		-165	u1½ -170

[JIBBBY]

Can Nick Lentz beat Wil Brooks? That may be worth a dog considering the odds.. Lentz is kinda tough... Thoughts anyone?

UFC fight Night 121 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Qudos Bank Arena - Sydney, Australia - FS1
Sat 11/18		1701 Nik Lentz		+425	o2½ -230
9:00PM		1702 Will Brooks		-550	u2½ +190

[TPowell]

Hit Tuivasa line on the head at -150. Think that may be low but hard to trust these 2 gas guzzlers. I think the OVER could have some juice. If this goes 1, it could go all 3 IMO

[TPowell]

Can Nick Lentz beat Wil Brooks? That may be worth a dog considering the odds.. Lentz is kinda tough... Thoughts anyone?

UFC fight Night 121 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Qudos Bank Arena - Sydney, Australia - FS1
Sat 11/18		1701 Nik Lentz		+425	o2½ -230
9:00PM		1702 Will Brooks		-550	u2½ +190

No chance IMO. Brooks is a bigger and stronger version of Lentz. I thought about a play at -380 or whatever the opener was

[JIBBBY]

No chance IMO. Brooks is a bigger and stronger version of Lentz. I thought about a play at -380 or whatever the opener was

Maybe but who has Wil Brooks beat? He's lost his last 2 fights.. He lost to tall athletic strikers though which Lentz is not.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Will-Brooks-76241

Lentz is a real UFC vet though, fought alot of fighters in the UFC.. Usually always game... He's 33 now and probably rounding in his prime..

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Nik-Lentz-15058


Tpow I think you are right though, the height difference is 3 inches and Wil Brooks should out point Lentz standing.. Lentz won't be able to punk Brooks on the ground either.. Being Brooks is coming from Top Team you know he's wrestled up for sure.. It's hard seeing Lentz win in any area..

Just capping this fight now and it caught my eye for a second...

[Shagdogy]

That Lentz/Brooks fight was scheduled for another card earlier this year. I remember it was a no play for me.

[turbozed]

1. I don't expect to see much grappling in this fight. It's always hard to predict game plans but in front of the home crowd I have a feeling this girls will want to stand and bang and put on a show.

2. Are you sure that Rawlings is faster? I feel like JRC has the better hand speed. I think you're right about clinch strikes being a decent advantage to Rawlings, but coming forward at range or in the pocket I'm not sure that Rawlings has a big advantage. I actually think JRC looks a bit more crisp, and accurate with her hands, and less hittable. Her biggest issue is it is bad optics for the judges to be backing up and countering for an entire round. Example - I felt she won round 2 vs. Kaufman, but it's a round she would lose on a lot of cards. Either way, if they just stand and trade the whole fight, I can't find a significant edge either way, but I would lean towards JRC landing a bit more, or at least higher %.

3. Agreed that with a full camp, I would be looking to bet that JRC dec. prop. The weight cut on short notice totally changes that. For me it makes me want to stay away entirely. I'm not convinced enough in Rawlings to want to bet her, so since the situation isn't great for JRC, I'm out. Enjoy the fight.

Thanks for the input Shagy.

I'm pretty sure Rawlings is faster than Jessy. Jessy has fought some of the slowest fighters in Damm and Sorenson. Kaufman isn't even that fast. So compared to those girls she looks somewhat quick. But if you watch one of those fights and then watch Rawlings/Torres, I think you'll notice both of those girls are on a higher level of speed than Jessy.

Jessy has the ability to counter, but she can only defend single strikes and throws single strikes in return. With short notice, I'm thinking she won't have the preparation to prepare a good counterstriking game against someone who is not super slow like Carina Damm, I'm pretty confident she doesn't have what it takes to stop the type of volume that Rawlings showed against Torres.

Hopefully we'll get an interview from Jessy showing what she's been doing, her weight cut, and her preparation for this fight.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Can Nick Lentz beat Wil Brooks? That may be worth a dog considering the odds.. Lentz is kinda tough... Thoughts anyone?

UFC fight Night 121 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Qudos Bank Arena - Sydney, Australia - FS1
Sat 11/18		1701 Nik Lentz		+425	o2½ -230
9:00PM		1702 Will Brooks		-550	u2½ +190

I'm with you on that. Lentz' body might be shot from the continuous bad weight cuts/injuries but Brooks has been unimpressive in the UFC. I think his style is much better suited to 5-round fights so I could see Lentz pulling out a close decision by winning the early rounds before Brooks figures him out later on.

[Hugo de Naranja]

That Lentz/Brooks fight was scheduled for another card earlier this year. I remember it was a no play for me.

I think the fight was originally scheduled for UFC 216. Line is significantly different now. Brooks was like (-300) then, (-550) now.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Maybe but who has Wil Brooks beat? He's lost his last 2 fights.. He lost to tall athletic strikers though which Lentz is not.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Will-Brooks-76241

Lentz is a real UFC vet though, fought alot of fighters in the UFC.. Usually always game... He's 33 now and probably rounding in his prime..

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Nik-Lentz-15058


Tpow I think you are right though, the height difference is 3 inches and Wil Brooks should out point Lentz standing.. Lentz won't be able to punk Brooks on the ground either.. Being Brooks is coming from Top Team you know he's wrestled up for sure.. It's hard seeing Lentz win in any area..

Just capping this fight now and it caught my eye for a second...

I wouldn't call Charles Oliveira a "tall athletic striker". He's more of a BJJ ace/submisson grappler imo. Alex Oliveira also had significant success in the grappling exchanges.

[TPowell]

Looked at the Benoit/Ashkan fight since a friend really liked Benoit but I just don't see paying -250 on the ML here. Ashkan has fought very low level comp. in Australia pre UFC but he is scrappy and has some physical strength and isn't afraid to use that in the wrestling and clinching. Benoit to me isn't capable of winning many fights on the cards because his offense is predicated on landing the big shot/shots. He does have great power (maybe the best at FLY) but if he doesn't land or it doesn't brutalize the opponent, he loses on volume badly. I think Ashkan by DEC and Benoit by TKO may be a decent hedge but I'm leaning towards Benoit NO CARDS when it comes out. I would think it'll be -350 or so potentially but have a feeling they'll come out with a shorter number. If Benoit ITD is cheaper than expected, I may look at this too but looking at the total doesn't give me much hope. Lastly, another interesting angle could be Benoit R2 or maybe R3. Ashkan is a very thick guy who expends a lot of energy during fights. I watched a BW fight of his recently and wow. The guy loves to grind it out and try to wear you down. It could backfire here though. He has only made a couple cuts down to 125 in his career and he seemed to gas against Moraga after being relentless with the clinching/wrestling in round one.

[TPowell]

Tim Means may be the worst starter I've ever really reviewed. Even fights he wins, he seemingly always loses/is life and death with the opponent in the first round. He only has 2 first round finishes in his UFC career and it was against Dhiego Lima 3 years ago and Justin Salas in 2012 or so. Belal Muhammad is virtually a carbon copy in that he doesn't start fast either. Muhammad typically has to eat punches before he decides to wake up and fight. Both guys have a ton of heart but are very beatable early on. That is about the only read I have here though unfortunately. Part of me thinks Belal could steal a tight first round and then find a TD and ground control later on to capture another round and win a close decision. The only thing holding me back is Muhammad's propensity to get into firefights with a guy like Means who has only been knocked down once in 17 UFC fights while Muhammad tends to be dazed easily even though he does recover quickly.

[TPowell]

Man, everything to me screams Belal isn't who you think. Beat pillar to post for 2 rounds by Jouban (knocked down 3 times) before turning it on in the last round to lose a decision. Life and death with Augusto Montano before knocking him out in the last round. Getting flash KO'd by Luque in 1 round. he then gets a great draw against Randy Brown who isn't really UFC level IMO. Lastly he beats Jordan Mein who no longer has a gas tank (he lost the 1st round to Mein btw). With no chance of finishing Means or Means slowing down, its hard to imagine Muhammad doing anything other than winning a razor tight decision at best. On the other hand, Means could put it on Belal at any moment.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Just finished capping the Means/Muhammad fight:


A year ago if these two were matched up it would seem like a great style matchup for Means. Means the taller and rangier southpaw fighter with accurate striking and dangerous both at range and in the clinch with knees and elbows. Belal looked incredibly hittable against another southpaw in Jouban, getting dropped 3 times in the fight before impressing everyone on the short notice debut in the 3rd round. Then of course, he had his lights put out last year by Luque with one punch. Belal had fought 3 times in about 4 months before getting KO'd so that might have contributed to it. It seemed a bit odd for a guy with the seemingly iron chin. In his two fights since, Belal has looked good, being able to overcome rangier and better strikers in Randy Brown and Jordan Mein. Admittedly, neither has shown the level of striking that Means has in the past but there must be some familiarity in fighting a similar type of fighter in 3 straight fights, especially since the clear path to victory for Belal is the same for each fight: clinch up, make it a dirty fight, make the other guy work, and slowly break the opponent down.

Tim Means started fighting professionally in 2004 and those 13 years of competition look to have caught up to him. The aggressive and stifling striking style hasn't been seen since August of 2016 where he lit up the debuting Homasi. Not a really stiff test for Means, who only appears to beat lower level UFC competition. Against Cowboy Oliveira, Means had little success getting outgrappled for most the fight. By the second round, he was completely on the defensive and looked to have completely emptied the gas tank before being tapping to the RNC. This was a bad look made worse since Cowboy didn't look fresh at all yet controlled Means rather easily. In his recent fight against Alex Garcia, he looked like a completely different fighter. The aggression and output was almost completely gone. It looks as if he completely changed around his gameplan to work around his cardio issues. While Means was able to defend takedowns and pot-shot Garcia at range, I don't think that Tim Means could avoid the grinding and ugly clinchfest that Belal will likely be able to put on him. If this was early 2016, Means as a -240 favorite would make sense, but after seeing his latest two performances, I see this line as being way off.

Can Means land a big left hand early and win? Possibly, but once a fighter becomes gunshy and less willing to pull the trigger, it rarely comes back. The implied odds are suggesting he wins this fight 7 out of 10 times. I'm not sure he wins this fight 5 out of 5 times. More likely than not, Belal clinches up and makes this an ugly fight that forces Means to just defend. +200 seems way off. Also, if Means employs the same outside gameplan as he did against Garcia, the over should've been set at 2.5 rds instead of 1.5.

One thing that really surprised me about Means performance against Garcia was his failure to push a pace against a notorious gasser in Garcia. I was expecting Means to pressure and throw lots of combinations while mixing in more of his clinch game. I'm not sure why we didn't see the classic Means style against an opponent who I believe was a favorable style matchup for him.

[turbozed]

One thing that really surprised me about Means performance against Garcia was his failure to push a pace against a notorious gasser in Garcia. I was expecting Means to pressure and throw lots of combinations while mixing in more of his clinch game. I'm not sure why we didn't see the classic Means style against an opponent who I believe was a favorable style matchup for him.

Some people argue that it was a fluke bad performance but I'm not so sure. As I mentioned, the last time we saw the classic Means style was over a year ago against a pretty shitty fighter. In his two fights with Oliveira, he looked good for maybe 30 seconds of the first round of the first fight.

I'm thinking it could be a trend. Means has not looked the same. It might have been USADA. Sure he might not have known (I call bullshit) but either way there's definitely a benefit to taking ostarine and other SARMs and now that's gone. Another factor is that he's in his 13th year of fighting. Very few can keep up aggressive style fighting for that long. Lawler is the only guy I can think of that has been fighting consistently for over 13 years that's still relatively aggressive.

[TPowell]

One thing that really surprised me about Means performance against Garcia was his failure to push a pace against a notorious gasser in Garcia. I was expecting Means to pressure and throw lots of combinations while mixing in more of his clinch game. I'm not sure why we didn't see the classic Means style against an opponent who I believe was a favorable style matchup for him.

Granted but Garcia does have some solid power on the feet. He won't be concerned with what's coming back at him from belal