[PaperTrail07]

Pretty Unreal You cant parlay on Heritage Right now....UFC lines up for straight bets only.....smh WTF>..

[PaperTrail07]

Fights are Sat and Lines Be moving....LINES BE MOVING

[JIBBBY]

I wouldn't call Charles Oliveira a "tall athletic striker". He's more of a BJJ ace/submisson grappler imo. Alex Oliveira also had significant success in the grappling exchanges.

I guess... Still both fighters were much taller the Nick Lentz and beat him.. He is facing another tall fighter... Seems to be Lentz's kriptonite...

[Shagdogy]

Hit Tuivasa line on the head at -150. Think that may be low but hard to trust these 2 gas guzzlers. I think the OVER could have some juice. If this goes 1, it could go all 3 IMO

There's def a chance these guys had and push the fight over, but I also think there's a chance that if Tuivasa doesn't finish Coulter in the first round, that he can barely stand for more than half of the second round before being completely out of gas. IMO he got lucky McSweeney didn't come out for the second because Tuivasa wasn't getting that finish and he was getting incredibly sloppy and increasingly tired. Add in that this is his first UFC bout and it's at home, id expect a significant adrenaline dump. Hard to see Tuivasa putting up a fight beyond 1.5 rounds. Also, Coulter showed an absurd chin vs Sherman but he's 35, was KO'd last time out, and facing a more powerful guy. Never bet on an aging fighter's chin. I'd stay clear of the over here.

[Shagdogy]

Just finished capping the Means/Muhammad fight:


A year ago if these two were matched up it would seem like a great style matchup for Means. Means the taller and rangier southpaw fighter with accurate striking and dangerous both at range and in the clinch with knees and elbows. Belal looked incredibly hittable against another southpaw in Jouban, getting dropped 3 times in the fight before impressing everyone on the short notice debut in the 3rd round. Then of course, he had his lights put out last year by Luque with one punch. Belal had fought 3 times in about 4 months before getting KO'd so that might have contributed to it. It seemed a bit odd for a guy with the seemingly iron chin. In his two fights since, Belal has looked good, being able to overcome rangier and better strikers in Randy Brown and Jordan Mein. Admittedly, neither has shown the level of striking that Means has in the past but there must be some familiarity in fighting a similar type of fighter in 3 straight fights, especially since the clear path to victory for Belal is the same for each fight: clinch up, make it a dirty fight, make the other guy work, and slowly break the opponent down.

Tim Means started fighting professionally in 2004 and those 13 years of competition look to have caught up to him. The aggressive and stifling striking style hasn't been seen since August of 2016 where he lit up the debuting Homasi. Not a really stiff test for Means, who only appears to beat lower level UFC competition. Against Cowboy Oliveira, Means had little success getting outgrappled for most the fight. By the second round, he was completely on the defensive and looked to have completely emptied the gas tank before being tapping to the RNC. This was a bad look made worse since Cowboy didn't look fresh at all yet controlled Means rather easily. In his recent fight against Alex Garcia, he looked like a completely different fighter. The aggression and output was almost completely gone. It looks as if he completely changed around his gameplan to work around his cardio issues. While Means was able to defend takedowns and pot-shot Garcia at range, I don't think that Tim Means could avoid the grinding and ugly clinchfest that Belal will likely be able to put on him. If this was early 2016, Means as a -240 favorite would make sense, but after seeing his latest two performances, I see this line as being way off.

Can Means land a big left hand early and win? Possibly, but once a fighter becomes gunshy and less willing to pull the trigger, it rarely comes back. The implied odds are suggesting he wins this fight 7 out of 10 times. I'm not sure he wins this fight 5 out of 5 times. More likely than not, Belal clinches up and makes this an ugly fight that forces Means to just defend. +200 seems way off. Also, if Means employs the same outside gameplan as he did against Garcia, the over should've been set at 2.5 rds instead of 1.5.

I'm not sure I can pick Muhammad here. He's less explosive than Garcia but enters into the clinch in a similar way with doubles from outside. Means, as boring as he was, did a very good job of avoiding the shots and clinch with Garcia. I'm not sure Muhammad will be able to get or keep him on the fence. Mein did this just like Means vs Garcia in round 1 of his fight against Muhammad before he gassed. I think this may be a second outside, potshotting gameplan from Means. Makes me think you're dead on about the over/under. Leaning over here big time.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm not sure I can pick Muhammad here. He's less explosive than Garcia but enters into the clinch in a similar way with doubles from outside. Means, as boring as he was, did a very good job of avoiding the shots and clinch with Garcia. I'm not sure Muhammad will be able to get or keep him on the fence. Mein did this just like Means vs Garcia in round 1 of his fight against Muhammad before he gassed. I think this may be a second outside, potshotting gameplan from Means. Makes me think you're dead on about the over/under. Leaning over here big time.

I'm in agreement with that and parlayed up the Over 1.5 with Volkanovski at near even money. On a side note, I thought Means TDD looked better than expected against Garcia.

[TPowell]

I'm in agreement with that and parlayed up the Over 1.5 with Volkanovski at near even money. On a side note, I thought Means TDD looked better than expected against Garcia.

The OVER 1.5 is good but Muhammad's strike defense is so bad. I think I'll be parlaying Means NO CARDS for sure.

[Shagdogy]

I'm in agreement with that and parlayed up the Over 1.5 with Volkanovski at near even money. On a side note, I thought Means TDD looked better than expected against Garcia.

I actually think his TDD is decent. In particular he has a strong wizard and he's surprisingly nimble when getting to his feet for such a tall guy. If Muhammad gets Means pinned to the cage or on the mat, I don't really expect it will be early in the fight. if Means prioritizes TDD then I expect to see pretty much the same game plan he used vs Garcia. The question is whether or not Means respects the danger that Muhammad brings? If he doesn't fear anything about Muhammad then we could see him going back to his trademark stalking, high volume style.

[Shagdogy]

The OVER 1.5 is good but Muhammad's strike defense is so bad. I think I'll be parlaying Means NO CARDS for sure.

I thought his head movement was good vs Brown. Against Mein he didn't really have anything to need to defend. Mein's power was completely zapped after 1 round and Muhammad didn't need to respect him any longer. That would be a mistake vs Means.

[TPowell]

I actually think his TDD is decent. In particular he has a strong wizard and he's surprisingly nimble when getting to his feet for such a tall guy. If Muhammad gets Means pinned to the cage or on the mat, I don't really expect it will be early in the fight. if Means prioritizes TDD then I expect to see pretty much the same game plan he used vs Garcia. The question is whether or not Means respects the danger that Muhammad brings? If he doesn't fear anything about Muhammad then we could see him going back to his trademark stalking, high volume style.

Think people writing Means off have to consider that. I doubt Means will respect the power coming back at him in this fight. Agree totally on his TDD. Garcia finishes that round one takedown against 80% of the UFC roster at WW IMO

[Shagdogy]

Think people writing Means off have to consider that. I doubt Means will respect the power coming back at him in this fight. Agree totally on his TDD. Garcia finishes that round one takedown against 80% of the UFC roster at WW IMO

That's what is making this fight difficult to predict. I also consistently underestimate Muhammad. I do the same with James Vick and they just keep winning. I think the o/u set at 1.5 is a little off. I like Hugo's idea to parlay for a little extra value.

[TPowell]

Theo/Kelly fight is pretty straightforward as far as MMA goes. Elias has no way to finish virtually anyone but pushes good pace and has great cardio. His TDD though is a little less than stellar and I'm not super comfortable with his decisions on the ground. Kelly is a tough vet who has that judo power grappling game and some BJJ but not enough to threaten real UFC level guys IMO. Kelly's age and lack of athletic ability is what sticks out to you when looking at him and I feel like Elias can exploit that on the feet. The only issue is that Elias likes to play the grinder role himself and get dirty in the clinch. Kelly WILL take him down in this fight if that happens and Elias tends to get caught on bottom for periods of time against less talented grapplers. I like Elias to take round three with a spent Dan Kelly but he can't afford to drop rounds by hanging out on bottom before then. At -260 (ML) on a fight destined for a decision, I'm not biting but Elias by decision is a very likely scenario and you can get that at -130 instead of the -270 for the fight to hit the cards. That is the play here but it isn't sexy. Just a predictable type ending to 2 very predictable fighters getting together.

[turbozed]

I'm not sure I can pick Muhammad here. He's less explosive than Garcia but enters into the clinch in a similar way with doubles from outside. Means, as boring as he was, did a very good job of avoiding the shots and clinch with Garcia. I'm not sure Muhammad will be able to get or keep him on the fence. Mein did this just like Means vs Garcia in round 1 of his fight against Muhammad before he gassed. I think this may be a second outside, potshotting gameplan from Means. Makes me think you're dead on about the over/under. Leaning over here big time.

Garcia landed a double leg TD on means in the first but Means was able to get up quickly. Same in the third. So It's not like Garcia had no success. What Garcia didn't try was chaining his takedowns. Cowboy was able to return Means to the mat like 4 times in a row. I think Belal is less likely to try blast doubles from range and will instead grind against the fence.

Means still might be able to sprawl, stick, and move for a win but either way I think it's close. Close enough to take the 2-1 dog at least. Now if the theory is true that Means has hit a wall and is on a decline, then maybe Belal will come out looking like the favorite.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Garcia landed a double leg TD on means in the first but Means was able to get up quickly. Same in the third. So It's not like Garcia had no success. What Garcia didn't try was chaining his takedowns. Cowboy was able to return Means to the mat like 4 times in a row. I think Belal is less likely to try blast doubles from range and will instead grind against the fence.

Means still might be able to sprawl, stick, and move for a win but either way I think it's close. Close enough to take the 2-1 dog at least. Now if the theory is true that Means has hit a wall and is on a decline, then maybe Belal will come out looking like the favorite.

Neither of Garcia's attempts that you reference were counted as TDs by Fight Metric since you have to have at least a second of top control. The takedown chaining could be useful for Belal. ML value I lean Belal but I am probably picking Means. What do you think about the over here?

[Shagdogy]

Garcia landed a double leg TD on means in the first but Means was able to get up quickly. Same in the third. So It's not like Garcia had no success. What Garcia didn't try was chaining his takedowns. Cowboy was able to return Means to the mat like 4 times in a row. I think Belal is less likely to try blast doubles from range and will instead grind against the fence.

Means still might be able to sprawl, stick, and move for a win but either way I think it's close. Close enough to take the 2-1 dog at least. Now if the theory is true that Means has hit a wall and is on a decline, then maybe Belal will come out looking like the favorite.

I agree he wants to grind against the fence, but I think his entrances to close the distance look a lot like Garcia's blast doubles just with less blast to them. Means isn't going to willingly back himself up to the fence. Muhammad will have to force him there, and the way he enters I feel resembles Garcia, who Means kept mostly at bay. I also think one of the more obvious factors in this fight is that Muhammad will want it on the cage. Everyone knows it. Means must know it. That's why I think the over is the better play because Means should prioritize staying off the cage, at least until he feels the action out a little bit.

That said, I have less success betting O/U's so I just don't know how confident I am on any particular outcome in this fight.

[turbozed]

Here's my take on Mokhtarian/Benoit:

Don't let appearances fool you. Ashkan Mokhtarian looks like Tong Po and has a nice left kick, but the guy is no kickboxer. He's instead a wrestle-grinder who is going to look for a takedown after throwing a few kicks and running at you with some punches. This strategy has worked very well for Mokhtarian against very low level competition in Australian regionals where he went 13-1 (his one loss due to being choked out by a sub-500 regional fighter). It doesn't work well against UFC caliber competition.


After being thoroughly dominated by John Moraga in his UFC debut, a lot of our suspicions were confirmed about Mokhtarian and his padded record. He's not UFC caliber, would likely be a middling regional fighter in the US scene, and would've never entered the octagon if the UFC didn't need local Australian talent (and granted he's got a cool video-game character look). Candid about his rocky past, Mokhtarian has admitted that he was an alcoholic and homeless at some point. Fighting gave him discipline and helped him out of dark times. A great story but not the sort of career trajectory you're looking for if you want to back the underdog here.


John Moraga thoroughly out-wrestled and out-grappled Mokhtarian. Mokhtarian has been able to get by and win fights by being stronger than his opponents. Cutting down to 125, he looks to have maintained that strength but the skill difference between the American Division I wrestler training at a legit MMA camp versus Moktharian, who started training BJJ (now a purple belt) and kickboxing later in life, was obvious. Moraga floated on top of Mokhtarian and was in dominant ground positions throughout the fight. The fight would've been much worse for the Aussie if Moraga didn't constantly hunt submissions and instead just pounded on Mokhtarian (as he did for a little in the 3rd round).


Though Benoit doesn't have the same wrestling credentials as Moraga, he did start wrestling at 10 years old in Virginia. He went on to place in state wrestling tournaments and represent Texas in a Junior National tournament. Benoit hasn't shown a dominant wrestling and top game performance yet in the UFC. He has shown some good scrambling ability and explosive hips, able to get up from bottom position from the few times he's been taken down (or when he's let himself get taken down by jumping for guillotines). On 10 days notice, he was able to counter wrestle Fredy Serrano, who represented Colombia in the Olympics and won a bronze medal in the Pan American Games. It would be safe to assume that he has the wrestling edge here.


Benoit should be the better striker here as well. It's obvious Mokhtarian wanted no part of the striking against Moraga, but Mokhtarian gets outstruck by Australian regional fighters like Shannon Ross (fight available on Youtube). Benoit's striking has been wild in the past but he's show improvement looking a bit more balanced and overcommitting less. At 125, Benoit packs a lot of power and has added some stance-switching to his game as well, which helped him land shots against Serrano.


Benoit's biggest weakness is that he seems to have trouble implementing a consistent gameplan. He just sort of flows with what's going on with the fight at the moment. This makes him hard to back against good fighters. Luckily for him, Moktharian also has the same problem. And being the less skilled grappler and striker, it's hard to see how Mokhtarian wins this. I wrote this out because I hit Benoit opener at -230 without taking a deep look at the fight. I think that number has some value so I might not arb/cancel out the bet. But with the odds where they are now, I'd probably avoid the ML altogether. May consider a Benoit ITD bet here depending on how the fighters look at weigh-ins.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Here's my take on Mokhtarian/Benoit:

Don't let appearances fool you. Ashkan Mokhtarian looks like Tong Po and has a nice left kick, but the guy is no kickboxer. He's instead a wrestle-grinder who is going to look for a takedown after throwing a few kicks and running at you with some punches. This strategy has worked very well for Mokhtarian against very low level competition in Australian regionals where he went 13-1 (his one loss due to being choked out by a sub-500 regional fighter). It doesn't work well against UFC caliber competition.


After being thoroughly dominated by John Moraga in his UFC debut, a lot of our suspicions were confirmed about Mokhtarian and his padded record. He's not UFC caliber, would likely be a middling regional fighter in the US scene, and would've never entered the octagon if the UFC didn't need local Australian talent (and granted he's got a cool video-game character look). Candid about his rocky past, Mokhtarian has admitted that he was an alcoholic and homeless at some point. Fighting gave him discipline and helped him out of dark times. A great story but not the sort of career trajectory you're looking for if you want to back the underdog here.


John Moraga thoroughly out-wrestled and out-grappled Mokhtarian. Mokhtarian has been able to get by and win fights by being stronger than his opponents. Cutting down to 125, he looks to have maintained that strength but the skill difference between the American Division I wrestler training at a legit MMA camp versus Moktharian, who started training BJJ (now a purple belt) and kickboxing later in life, was obvious. Moraga floated on top of Mokhtarian and was in dominant ground positions throughout the fight. The fight would've been much worse for the Aussie if Moraga didn't constantly hunt submissions and instead just pounded on Mokhtarian (as he did for a little in the 3rd round).


Though Benoit doesn't have the same wrestling credentials as Moraga, he did start wrestling at 10 years old in Virginia. He went on to place in state wrestling tournaments and represent Texas in a Junior National tournament. Benoit hasn't shown a dominant wrestling and top game performance yet in the UFC. He has shown some good scrambling ability and explosive hips, able to get up from bottom position from the few times he's been taken down (or when he's let himself get taken down by jumping for guillotines). On 10 days notice, he was able to counter wrestle Fredy Serrano, who represented Colombia in the Olympics and won a bronze medal in the Pan American Games. It would be safe to assume that he has the wrestling edge here.


Benoit should be the better striker here as well. It's obvious Mokhtarian wanted no part of the striking against Moraga, but Mokhtarian gets outstruck by Australian regional fighters like Shannon Ross (fight available on Youtube). Benoit's striking has been wild in the past but he's show improvement looking a bit more balanced and overcommitting less. At 125, Benoit packs a lot of power and has added some stance-switching to his game as well, which helped him land shots against Serrano.


Benoit's biggest weakness is that he seems to have trouble implementing a consistent gameplan. He just sort of flows with what's going on with the fight at the moment. This makes him hard to back against good fighters. Luckily for him, Moktharian also has the same problem. And being the less skilled grappler and striker, it's hard to see how Mokhtarian wins this. I wrote this out because I hit Benoit opener at -230 without taking a deep look at the fight. I think that number has some value so I might not arb/cancel out the bet. But with the odds where they are now, I'd probably avoid the ML altogether. May consider a Benoit ITD bet here depending on how the fighters look at weigh-ins.

Interesting fact about Benoit. His ONLY decision win was that Split over Serrano. He has finished all other opponents that he has beaten in his career (7 KO/TKOs, 1 Submission)

[TPowell]

Think you play Benoit ITD or you don't play him at all. If it goes the distance, he's either almost killed the trashcan or he's done something really stupid and may have lost the fight altogether.

[TPowell]

Garcia landed a double leg TD on means in the first but Means was able to get up quickly. Same in the third. So It's not like Garcia had no success. What Garcia didn't try was chaining his takedowns. Cowboy was able to return Means to the mat like 4 times in a row. I think Belal is less likely to try blast doubles from range and will instead grind against the fence.

Means still might be able to sprawl, stick, and move for a win but either way I think it's close. Close enough to take the 2-1 dog at least. Now if the theory is true that Means has hit a wall and is on a decline, then maybe Belal will come out looking like the favorite.

Grinding against the cage with Means could result in a lot of elbows ate though.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Think you play Benoit ITD or you don't play him at all. If it goes the distance, he's either almost killed the trashcan or he's done something really stupid and may have lost the fight altogether.

Agreed. At (+165), that's a lot better value than the (-270) ML.

[Shagdogy]

I'm interested in this Lausa vs. Shelton matchup:

Lausa had a real tough out last fight against Bibulatov and while he looked pretty good early, he was worn down by the relentless takedown game. However, in round 1 and the first half of round 2, Lausa was able to defend Bib's takedowns and get his back off the cage, and even once reverse and put Bib's back to the cage. Good balance and strength. At range, Lausa struggled to land a little bit thanks to Bib's kick heavy attack. What's obvious about Lausa is that his hand speed is excellent and his power is pretty good in this division.

Shelton is someone I've liked for a while but I'm thinking he may have a lower ceiling than I thought. Against Pantoja he mixed strikes and offensive wrestling well, but struggled with the forward pressure, dirty clinch game, and against Brooks he fought well (arguably won), but couldn't convincingly take rounds 2 and 3 when Brooks almost completely abandoned his gameplan and circled around the cage, probably due to debut adrenaline dump.

For this specific matchup I think there's a lot that favors Lausa. Shelton doesn't have the power or relentlessness of Bibulatov in his takedown game, so if Lausa could stuff Bib for 1.5 rounds I have no doubt that he can defend Shelton's takedowns for at least as long (He stuffed 6 of Bib's first 7 attempts). On the feet, Shelton doesn't have the kick game to keep Lausa on the outside. I expect Lausa to maintain a slight edge in the striking exchanges thanks to his hand speed advantage. If Shelton does manage to catch him, Lausa has shown a very solid chin. I think there's a good chance this fight is going to be won/lost in the striking exchanges and that's a real good sign for Lausa. At almost 3-1 I see him as well worth the dog play. Anyone have any feedback on this?

[TPowell]

I'm interested in this Lausa vs. Shelton matchup:

Lausa had a real tough out last fight against Bibulatov and while he looked pretty good early, he was worn down by the relentless takedown game. However, in round 1 and the first half of round 2, Lausa was able to defend Bib's takedowns and get his back off the cage, and even once reverse and put Bib's back to the cage. Good balance and strength. At range, Lausa struggled to land a little bit thanks to Bib's kick heavy attack. What's obvious about Lausa is that his hand speed is excellent and his power is pretty good in this division.

Shelton is someone I've liked for a while but I'm thinking he may have a lower ceiling than I thought. Against Pantoja he mixed strikes and offensive wrestling well, but struggled with the forward pressure, dirty clinch game, and against Brooks he fought well (arguably won), but couldn't convincingly take rounds 2 and 3 when Brooks almost completely abandoned his gameplan and circled around the cage, probably due to debut adrenaline dump.

For this specific matchup I think there's a lot that favors Lausa. Shelton doesn't have the power or relentlessness of Bibulatov in his takedown game, so if Lausa could stuff Bib for 1.5 rounds I have no doubt that he can defend Shelton's takedowns for at least as long (He stuffed 6 of Bib's first 7 attempts). On the feet, Shelton doesn't have the kick game to keep Lausa on the outside. I expect Lausa to maintain a slight edge in the striking exchanges thanks to his hand speed advantage. If Shelton does manage to catch him, Lausa has shown a very solid chin. I think there's a good chance this fight is going to be won/lost in the striking exchanges and that's a real good sign for Lausa. At almost 3-1 I see him as well worth the dog play. Anyone have any feedback on this?

Looking at Lausa on paper, its tough to see me backing a guy that is getting beat by guys from PXC (granted it has been a few years) and you add to it that his UFC debut came against a guy that had zero business in the UFC or even Bellator or LFA or anything. Yao debuted in the UFC with a 1-1 record (his win coming against an 0-0 guy). I agree that you can't back Shelton at nearly 4 to 1 here because he doesn't have that killer instinct but that's just me.

[Shagdogy]

Looking at Lausa on paper, its tough to see me backing a guy that is getting beat by guys from PXC (granted it has been a few years) and you add to it that his UFC debut came against a guy that had zero business in the UFC or even Bellator or LFA or anything. Yao debuted in the UFC with a 1-1 record (his win coming against an 0-0 guy). I agree that you can't back Shelton at nearly 4 to 1 here because he doesn't have that killer instinct but that's just me.

He's a boxer with a 7-0 pro boxing record. It's going to take some time for his grappling to catch up, but for him to stuff Bibulatov for 1.5 rounds is a good sign. Watch his fights. The hand speed is impressive and his TDD is not bad and improving every fight. His biggest problem is that he doesn't have good getups from bottom. He works really hard not to get flattened out, but when Bibulatov could get his back to the mat he was stuck there. But that's against Bibulatov. Let me know if you watch Lausa at all. I'd be curious what you see if you take an objective look.

[Shagdogy]

Agreed. At (+165), that's a lot better value than the (-270) ML.

Just watched that Mokhtarian vs. Ross (or McClellan?) fight. I think Benoit ITD at plus money might be a bet you have to take considering his record for finishing fights. Mokhtarian is easily the least skilled fighter Benoit will have faced in the past 4-5 years. And a big worry is that it's tough to see Mokhtarian demanding respect. His punches are mostly arm strikes that lack power, and his kicks are stiff except for his left leg kick which is only decent when he is set up perfectly for it. If Benoit gets in there and feels like Mokhtarian has nothing for him, then I imagine he will hunt for that KO.

[TPowell]

He's a boxer with a 7-0 pro boxing record. It's going to take some time for his grappling to catch up, but for him to stuff Bibulatov for 1.5 rounds is a good sign. Watch his fights. The hand speed is impressive and his TDD is not bad and improving every fight. His biggest problem is that he doesn't have good getups from bottom. He works really hard not to get flattened out, but when Bibulatov could get his back to the mat he was stuck there. But that's against Bibulatov. Let me know if you watch Lausa at all. I'd be curious what you see if you take an objective look.

I'll def take a look later this week. Feeling burnt out a little right now with some of the other MMA projects I have going and work. I def plan on watching some tape though.

[turbozed]

Just watched that Mokhtarian vs. Ross (or McClellan?) fight. I think Benoit ITD at plus money might be a bet you have to take considering his record for finishing fights. Mokhtarian is easily the least skilled fighter Benoit will have faced in the past 4-5 years. And a big worry is that it's tough to see Mokhtarian demanding respect. His punches are mostly arm strikes that lack power, and his kicks are stiff except for his left leg kick which is only decent when he is set up perfectly for it. If Benoit gets in there and feels like Mokhtarian has nothing for him, then I imagine he will hunt for that KO.

I have the same take as you regarding Mokhtarian's striking. He really needs to wind up for that kick and that makes it either easy to avoid or easy to time for a counter. Benoit should have the skills to counter the kick. He specifically looked for it against Serrano with a straight right that floored Serrano while attempting a kick.

Moraga seemed to notice the same in the 2nd round with Mokhtarian because he was looking to time the left hook. He landed a few and then caught Mokhtarian's kick to get on top. Benoit seems to have striking ability and timing to do the exact same. It was a left hook that dropped Sergio Pettis.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I have the same take as you regarding Mokhtarian's striking. He really needs to wind up for that kick and that makes it either easy to avoid or easy to time for a counter. Benoit should have the skills to counter the kick. He specifically looked for it against Serrano with a straight right that floored Serrano while attempting a kick.

Moraga seemed to notice the same in the 2nd round with Mokhtarian because he was looking to time the left hook. He landed a few and then caught Mokhtarian's kick to get on top. Benoit seems to have striking ability and timing to do the exact same. It was a left hook that dropped Sergio Pettis.

I think Benoit's power is rare at Flyweight/Bantamweight.

[Shagdogy]

I have the same take as you regarding Mokhtarian's striking. He really needs to wind up for that kick and that makes it either easy to avoid or easy to time for a counter. Benoit should have the skills to counter the kick. He specifically looked for it against Serrano with a straight right that floored Serrano while attempting a kick.

Moraga seemed to notice the same in the 2nd round with Mokhtarian because he was looking to time the left hook. He landed a few and then caught Mokhtarian's kick to get on top. Benoit seems to have striking ability and timing to do the exact same. It was a left hook that dropped Sergio Pettis.

Only worry for me is if Mokhtarian just runs forward to hug Benoit every time he looks to light him up and he's able to tie up enough to drag it to a one sided decision. Getting both Benoit TKO and Benoit Dec at plus money seems very safe. One of those has to hit. I'll consider hitting TKO and then covering my bet with decision prop.

[turbozed]

Neither of Garcia's attempts that you reference were counted as TDs by Fight Metric since you have to have at least a second of top control. The takedown chaining could be useful for Belal. ML value I lean Belal but I am probably picking Means. What do you think about the over here?

Like the over and have it in a parlay. I'm pretty sure Belal isn't finishing Means, and the more patient pot-shotting Means likely isn't finishing Belal either. Was also looking at Not Means ITD for cheaper price of -175 too. If it goes past 1.5 rounds, I doubt Means is finishing Belal late in the 2nd or 3rd either.

[turbozed]

Only worry for me is if Mokhtarian just runs forward to hug Benoit every time he looks to light him up and he's able to tie up enough to drag it to a one sided decision. Getting both Benoit TKO and Benoit Dec at plus money seems very safe. One of those has to hit. I'll consider hitting TKO and then covering my bet with decision prop.

Mokhtarian's sub defense looked pretty good but remember he almost got caught with an early guillotine in that first round. Mok has been subbed before by a 7-8 Aussie regional scrub. Benoit seems to commit to a guillotine often when opponents shoot on him.

Speaking of subs, Mokhtarian's best win was via a leglock. He threatened with one in the Moraga fight. Probably not going to happen against a slippery guy like Benoit but I'll take a gander at the Mok sub line when it comes out just to see.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Mokhtarian's sub defense looked pretty good but remember he almost got caught with an early guillotine in that first round. Mok has been subbed before by a 7-8 Aussie regional scrub. Benoit seems to commit to a guillotine often when opponents shoot on him.

Speaking of subs, Mokhtarian's best win was via a leglock. He threatened with one in the Moraga fight. Probably not going to happen against a slippery guy like Benoit but I'll take a gander at the Mok sub line when it comes out just to see.

That's what I was thinking too. Benoit has been subbed in both of his UFC losses. (RNCs by Josh Sampo and Ben Nguyen)

[Hugo de Naranja]

What do you guys think about Jake Matthews?

[turbozed]

Can crusher alert.

Nadia Kassem's four opponents have a combined record of 0-10. Looks like she steamrolled them all but what will happen when she fights someone who can actually fight back? Will be taking a look at this fight now.

[Shagdogy]

Can crusher alert.

Nadia Kassem's four opponents have a combined record of 0-10. Looks like she steamrolled them all but what will happen when she fights someone who can actually fight back? Will be taking a look at this fight now.

Real hard to find tape on Kassem but the tiny bit that's out there doesn't look great. She's got youth, size/reach, and southpaw stance, but her technique is seriously lacking it appears. She does hold a round 2 sub win at some point, maybe amateur, but otherwise her longest fight is 1:30 with three sub :30sec victories. Total can crusher.

At 39 and on 2 year layoff there's not much to get excited about Chambers who was physically bullied and outworked by Van Zant in her last fight way back in 2015. That said, she lasted until round 3 and showed some good toughness even though she was thoroughly out matched.

Oddsmakers actually seem hip to what kind of BS this fight is. The o/u is a rare 1.5 for a girl fight and the over is only -150. You ask me, that implies that the thought is either Kassem can continue steamrolling, or she's so bad that Chambers can get an early finish potentially.

At 22, never having fought in the UFC or even any kind of big stage, and never having fought passed 1:30 professionally, there's a good chance if that finish doesn't come in the first 2mins for Kassem, that she gasses so hard with an adrenaline dump that Chambers could knock her over with her pinky finger. Same concern as I have for Tuivasa who is in the same kind of situation.

I don't know how you can be confident on any side or total in this fight, but if you're going to have action on it, it must be plus money, IMO. So Chambers, the under, or Chambers inside the distance. Even those aren't giving me the value I'd really want. I can't imagine laying any juice on this junk fight.

Let me know what you see or think.

[Shagdogy]

What do you guys think about Jake Matthews?

I still need to break down the technique/skill for this matchup but I have a hard time forgiving Matthews for losing a decision to Holbrook at home in Australia. That's a bad look. I had Matthews in that fight, and it was a disappointment for him to lose a 3 round fight to him IMO.

Velickovic made it 3 rounds with Till while getting thoroughly beaten. He's tough for sure. Hard to put away. I'm not all that impressed with the danger he brings to his opponents but he's not a scrub.

I'll get back once I actually break this one down.