1. #71
    turbozed
    turbozed's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-15-08
    Posts: 2,435
    Betpoints: 1081

    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    Real hard to find tape on Kassem but the tiny bit that's out there doesn't look great. She's got youth, size/reach, and southpaw stance, but her technique is seriously lacking it appears. She does hold a round 2 sub win at some point, maybe amateur, but otherwise her longest fight is 1:30 with three sub :30sec victories. Total can crusher.

    At 39 and on 2 year layoff there's not much to get excited about Chambers who was physically bullied and outworked by Van Zant in her last fight way back in 2015. That said, she lasted until round 3 and showed some good toughness even though she was thoroughly out matched.

    Oddsmakers actually seem hip to what kind of BS this fight is. The o/u is a rare 1.5 for a girl fight and the over is only -150. You ask me, that implies that the thought is either Kassem can continue steamrolling, or she's so bad that Chambers can get an early finish potentially.

    At 22, never having fought in the UFC or even any kind of big stage, and never having fought passed 1:30 professionally, there's a good chance if that finish doesn't come in the first 2mins for Kassem, that she gasses so hard with an adrenaline dump that Chambers could knock her over with her pinky finger. Same concern as I have for Tuivasa who is in the same kind of situation.

    I don't know how you can be confident on any side or total in this fight, but if you're going to have action on it, it must be plus money, IMO. So Chambers, the under, or Chambers inside the distance. Even those aren't giving me the value I'd really want. I can't imagine laying any juice on this junk fight.

    Let me know what you see or think.
    Either of these girls would be insta-fade material if they weren't fighting each other.

    In her fight against Kailin Curran, Chambers put her back to the cage and let Curran tee off on her. Her defense there was to just wait until Curran stopped throwing her combos and then move away. This same tactic would be a bad idea against Kassem who, given what we've seen from her, can throw enough volume at chicks to get a ref stoppage. At least in the first round. She's pretty tough but at 39 years old with that long of a layoff, will Chambers be tough enough to weather the first round? She's only been stopped by submissions before nobody has really committed to blitzing her like Kassem might try to.

    If Chambers can, then things look a bit better for her. We haven't seen Kassem in the 2nd round of an MMA fight, but there's a video out there of her in the second round of a kickboxing match and her cardio doesn't look good. After going ham on her opponent for the first 3 minutes, she slowed down considerably for all of the 2nd round. She did get her wind back in the 3rd round, but these are 3 min kickboxing rounds.

    Despite being small and not particularly strong, Chambers has had success getting the fight to the ground. She submitted Esquibel pretty quickly, and locked up an armbar in Rd3 against Curran. We have not seen any grappling game whatsoever from Kassem. However, it's reported that Kassem has only been training for 4 years. It looks like she's focused a lot on the kickboxing aspect, so we can assume that at best she is a blue belt. When clinched up in her kickboxing match, she seemed easy to push around.

    So this might be the classic 1 round gas tank kickboxer fight versus grappler matchup. I think I'm going to wait and see what the 1st round prop for Kassem is, and the SUB prop for Chambers. I'm not sure which will be the main or which will be the hedge (will depend on the odds I guess). But those seem to be the two most likely results.
    Points Awarded:

    Hugo de Naranja gave turbozed 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  2. #72
    turbozed
    turbozed's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-15-08
    Posts: 2,435
    Betpoints: 1081

    So Werdum threw a boomerang at Colby Covington's face and I've been cracking up all day because of how absurd it is.


  3. #73
    PaperTrail07
    MMA is the most pure sport
    PaperTrail07's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-08
    Posts: 20,423
    Betpoints: 585

    A BOOMERANG

  4. #74
    Shagdogy
    Shagdogy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-16-10
    Posts: 3,564
    Betpoints: 5477

    Can't blame any Brazilian who wants to kick Covington's ass.

  5. #75
    Shagdogy
    Shagdogy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-16-10
    Posts: 3,564
    Betpoints: 5477

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    What do you guys think about Jake Matthews?
    It's only part of the picture but a clear edge across the board in FightMetric stats for Matthews compared to Velickovic. I'm sure you know this since you encouraged me to check them out.

    What I like is that Matthews has compiled the higher significant strikes, striking %, TD average, and TDD% against guys like Kevin Lee, Johnny Case, and James Vick. I need to rewatch tape before I really make an opinion here but I've always felt Bojan was just a middle of the road guy with good physical tools that he doesn't make the most of. At 23, Matthews SHOULD be improving and he's already faced some high level competition. On paper he certainly holds an edge for me.
    Points Awarded:

    Hugo de Naranja gave Shagdogy 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  6. #76
    TPowell
    TPowell's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-21-08
    Posts: 18,842
    Betpoints: 331

    Take out Jake's last fight and this price is a steal imo

  7. #77
    MMANick
    MMANick's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-06-16
    Posts: 4,075
    Betpoints: 1831

    The Bellator & UFC cards this weekend are so horrible. I'm sure I'll tune in a bit because I love MMA, but they truly are trash.

  8. #78
    PaperTrail07
    MMA is the most pure sport
    PaperTrail07's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-08
    Posts: 20,423
    Betpoints: 585

    the bellator card is (2) fights from being OVER lol....how you tune into old fights is beyond ME lol,....esp of that quality...
    Quote Originally Posted by MMANick View Post
    The Bellator & UFC cards this weekend are so horrible. I'm sure I'll tune in a bit because I love MMA, but they truly are trash.

  9. #79
    PaperTrail07
    MMA is the most pure sport
    PaperTrail07's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-08
    Posts: 20,423
    Betpoints: 585

    and while the UFC card is no huge names---I think the matchups are legit...means belal lentz brooks...theo Kelly...solid fights....no UFC McG hype or HUGE card but good

  10. #80
    turbozed
    turbozed's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-15-08
    Posts: 2,435
    Betpoints: 1081

    In a recent interview with the Mokhtarian brothers, they say that Nadia Kassem has only been training for 2.5 years.

    Chambers SUB line at +431 is looking pretty good. Prob will hedge with a Kassem KO or Rd1 tho
    Points Awarded:

    Hugo de Naranja gave turbozed 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  11. #81
    Shagdogy
    Shagdogy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-16-10
    Posts: 3,564
    Betpoints: 5477

    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    Take out Jake's last fight and this price is a steal imo
    Been watching Till and Velickovic a bit today, and I really wanted to like Jake Matthews a lot here, but I just can't be all that impressed by him. I think he has a few slight edges, enough to justify being the favorite, but not enough for me to commit more than 1.5u to win 1. While he doesn't have the reach advantage, I believe Matthews strikes longer. He's also the better offensive wrestler, and likely scrambler. But truth be told, I don't think he's all that great at any of these things, just good enough to edge Velickovic.

    Velickovic has never been finished and showed off his durability vs. Till. Maybe Matthews by decision is worth it at +177.

  12. #82
    Hugo de Naranja
    Hugo de Naranja's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-14-16
    Posts: 14,140
    Betpoints: 621

    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    Been watching Till and Velickovic a bit today, and I really wanted to like Jake Matthews a lot here, but I just can't be all that impressed by him. I think he has a few slight edges, enough to justify being the favorite, but not enough for me to commit more than 1.5u to win 1. While he doesn't have the reach advantage, I believe Matthews strikes longer. He's also the better offensive wrestler, and likely scrambler. But truth be told, I don't think he's all that great at any of these things, just good enough to edge Velickovic.

    Velickovic has never been finished and showed off his durability vs. Till. Maybe Matthews by decision is worth it at +177.
    Has Matthews ever won a decision in the UFC? I don't think of him as a good roundwinner.

  13. #83
    Hugo de Naranja
    Hugo de Naranja's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-14-16
    Posts: 14,140
    Betpoints: 621

    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    Take out Jake's last fight and this price is a steal imo
    I've always disliked this type of analysis. In my opinion, we need to look at all the information given rather than voluntarily disregarding recent outcomes or cherry-picking like that.

  14. #84
    TPowell
    TPowell's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-21-08
    Posts: 18,842
    Betpoints: 331

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    I've always disliked this type of analysis. In my opinion, we need to look at all the information given rather than voluntarily disregarding recent outcomes or cherry-picking like that.
    True, a little disingenuous of me since I'm not playing the fight. I'm starting to go around to fading Anthony Hamilton. He's been brutally KO'd in his last 2 fights (concussed) and NOW he's fighting again 2 months since DEFINITELY being concussed by a guy who is terrible (albeit because he's still very green) but regardless. At 37 years old and with a lot of fights under his belt, I just think Hamilton is shop worn. He retired after losing that last fight and then was booked a fight a month later (this fight) but it was rescheduled due to soccer riots. This guy is looking for a paycheck, simple as that. Normally, I wouldn't touch this one with a 10 foot pole but when a guy is not mentally there due to concussions, has a poor chin, and wanted to retire less than 3 months ago, I'm going to pull the trigger on anything reasonable. Only question now is do you want the ML on Adam W at -160 or ITD at -124. To be honest, I think the only way this goes the distance is because Hamilton fights smart and clinches a lot which hurts Adam anyway so -124 sounds good to me. Any thoughts?
    Points Awarded:

    Hugo de Naranja gave TPowell 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  15. #85
    Hugo de Naranja
    Hugo de Naranja's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-14-16
    Posts: 14,140
    Betpoints: 621

    Tuivasa looks like the lovechild of Mark Hunt and Tyson Pedro.

  16. #86
    TPowell
    TPowell's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-21-08
    Posts: 18,842
    Betpoints: 331

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Tuivasa looks like the lovechild of Mark Hunt and Tyson Pedro.

    Actually Tyson Pedro is his brother in law or some shit

  17. #87
    Hugo de Naranja
    Hugo de Naranja's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-14-16
    Posts: 14,140
    Betpoints: 621

    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    Actually Tyson Pedro is his brother in law or some shit
    Really? I did not know that. They do have very similar tattoos, especially on the legs and lower chest.

  18. #88
    Hugo de Naranja
    Hugo de Naranja's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-14-16
    Posts: 14,140
    Betpoints: 621

    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    True, a little disingenuous of me since I'm not playing the fight. I'm starting to go around to fading Anthony Hamilton. He's been brutally KO'd in his last 2 fights (concussed) and NOW he's fighting again 2 months since DEFINITELY being concussed by a guy who is terrible (albeit because he's still very green) but regardless. At 37 years old and with a lot of fights under his belt, I just think Hamilton is shop worn. He retired after losing that last fight and then was booked a fight a month later (this fight) but it was rescheduled due to soccer riots. This guy is looking for a paycheck, simple as that. Normally, I wouldn't touch this one with a 10 foot pole but when a guy is not mentally there due to concussions, has a poor chin, and wanted to retire less than 3 months ago, I'm going to pull the trigger on anything reasonable. Only question now is do you want the ML on Adam W at -160 or ITD at -124. To be honest, I think the only way this goes the distance is because Hamilton fights smart and clinches a lot which hurts Adam anyway so -124 sounds good to me. Any thoughts?
    With you on Adam ITD. I think Hamilton is well and truly done.

  19. #89
    TPowell
    TPowell's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-21-08
    Posts: 18,842
    Betpoints: 331

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Really? I did not know that. They do have very similar tattoos, especially on the legs and lower chest.
    What I heard on Cody saftics podcast earlier tonight. Didn't double check it though

  20. #90
    Hugo de Naranja
    Hugo de Naranja's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-14-16
    Posts: 14,140
    Betpoints: 621

    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    What I heard on Cody saftics podcast earlier tonight. Didn't double check it though
    Saftic is a pretty reliable source. Have they reincarnated Bookie Beatdown or is it something else? Also how's Toutmaster going?

  21. #91
    Hugo de Naranja
    Hugo de Naranja's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-14-16
    Posts: 14,140
    Betpoints: 621

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    With you on Adam ITD. I think Hamilton is well and truly done.
    Adam -3.5 at (-135) might be better. Just 11 cents worse then ITD line and covers the possibility of a wide decision win too.

  22. #92
    TPowell
    TPowell's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-21-08
    Posts: 18,842
    Betpoints: 331

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Saftic is a pretty reliable source. Have they reincarnated Bookie Beatdown or is it something else? Also how's Toutmaster going?

    Dog or pass is the name with Paul again. Ehh not real good. I struggle when forced to make picks but still fun.

  23. #93
    Hugo de Naranja
    Hugo de Naranja's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-14-16
    Posts: 14,140
    Betpoints: 621

    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    Dog or pass is the name with Paul again. Ehh not real good. I struggle when forced to make picks but still fun.
    Is it worth checking out?

  24. #94
    Hugo de Naranja
    Hugo de Naranja's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-14-16
    Posts: 14,140
    Betpoints: 621

    I'm really liking this Volkanovski cat. I'd confidently pick him to beat a handful of Top 15 Featherweights right now (Stephens, Yair, Bermudez etc.)

  25. #95
    Hugo de Naranja
    Hugo de Naranja's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-14-16
    Posts: 14,140
    Betpoints: 621

    Does anyone want to put some BPs up on the Theodorou/Kelly fight. Fire perhaps?

  26. #96
    TPowell
    TPowell's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-21-08
    Posts: 18,842
    Betpoints: 331

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Is it worth checking out?

    It isn't bad. I've always hated how they don't look into it more in depth gambling wise but his knowledge about the regional scenes is incredible which comes in handy with the newcomers

  27. #97
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 82,935
    Betpoints: 11558

    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    MMA Mania write ups coming in -



    125 lbs.: Alex Chambers vs. Nadia Kassem

    Alex Chambers (5-3) — ranked No. 10 on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 20 — fell to Rose Namajunas in the opening round and dropped a decision to Aisling Daly at the Finale. She got back on track with a comeback submission of Kailin Curran, only to get thumped by Paige VanZant soon after.
    This will be her first fight in 26 months.
    In four professional fights, Nadia Kassem (4-0) has spent a combined 2:22 in the cage, dispatching all opponents by (technical) knockout. Those victories included two at Strawweight, where she also earned an amateur win, and two at Flyweight.
    The 21-year-old was originally set to debut in June before suffering an injury.
    Before you ask: Yes, Kassem’s record is entirely empty. She has fought, in order, opponents who were 0-0, 0-4, 0-0, and 0-0. One of them, Belinda Sedgwick, is almost 40 and has been stopped in less than 100 seconds in all of her fights. To make my life more difficult, I can only find footage of about 30 seconds of that 2:22, plus some uninspiring amateur Muay Thai footage from 2015.
    The next PVZ she is not.
    Then again, Chambers has been dreadfully uninspiring in UFC, is coming off a huge layoff, is nearly 40, and really doesn’t like getting pressured. This is Kassem’s fight to lose — assuming she has at least eight minutes’ worth of gas, she walks down Chambers for either an accumulation stoppage or wide decision.
    Prediction: Kassem via unanimous decision

    125 lbs.:
    Jenel Lausa vs. Eric Shelton

    Jenel Lausa (7-3) — a former professional boxer — took home the PXC Flyweight title last year before roughing up Yao Zhikui in his Octagon debut. No good deed goes unpunished, though, and “Demolition Man” was subsequently selected to welcome top prospect Magomed Bibulatov to UFC, losing a one-sided decision in April.
    He is an inch shorter and three years older than Eric Shelton (10-4).
    Shelton’s run on TUF: “Tournament of Champions” ended in the semifinals with a majority decision loss to teammate Tim Elliott. His UFC run has been similarly contentious, dropping a close split decision to Alexandre Pantoja in his promotional debut before dropping a controversial one to Jarred Brooks six months later.
    Half of his professional wins have come by submission.
    Shelton legitimately lost to Pantoja, but he beat Brooks, and 15 of the 17 other media sites correlated on MMADecisions agree with me. He’s a legitimately elite Flyweight who has faced some bad breaks, packing quality striking, strong wrestling and effective scrambles. While Lausa is significantly better on the ground and at getting off of it than one would expect from a converted boxer, he’ll struggle with Shelton’s takedown game.
    Lausa has legitimate power and skill on the feet, but not enough that he can blunt Shelton’s wrestling onslaught. Shelton hits takedown after takedown en route to a decision victory.
    Prediction: Shelton via unanimous decision

    265 lbs.:
    Tai Tuivasa vs. Rashad Coulter

    Tai Tuivasa (7-0) made the jump from rugby to mixed martial arts (MMA) in 2012 and got off to a roaring start, stopping multiple opponents in less than one minute apiece. After knocking out Brandon Sosoli in 21 seconds for the Australian FC Heavyweight title, he took on UFC veteran James McSweeney and forced him to bow out between rounds.
    He stands two inches taller than Rashad Coulter (8-2) and, going by their last weigh-ins, should have about 20 pounds on him.
    Following his first career defeat, Coulter rattled off five knockouts in less than three minutes apiece, appearing in both Bellator and Legacy during that span. This past May, he stepped up on short notice to fight Chase Sherman and earned “Fight of the Night” in an insane back-and-forth brawl in which he ultimately came up short.
    Six of his eight (technical) knockout wins have come inside the first round.
    Tuivasa is still just 24, but those of you hoping for the next Mark Hunt or Ray Sefo are going to be disappointed. He’s a big ol’ boy with legit power and a good eye for elbows inside, but he was gassed to death after five minutes with McSweeney and has some fairly iffy grappling outside his raw strength.
    Luckily, Coulter’s going to come in there and bang with him. “Daywalker’s” only real hope is that the concrete slab he has instead of a head holds up long enough for Tuivasa to burn himself out trying to bust it, but with Tuivasa’s size and power that’s just not feasible. “Bam Bam” bulldozes Coulter early.
    Prediction: Tuivasa via first-round technical knockout

    Part 2 -

    125 lbs.: Ryan Benoit vs. Ashkan Mokhtarian
    Ryan Benoit (9-5) earned “Fight of the Night” in his Octagon debut, an entertaining submission loss to Josh Sampo, and promptly topped that be defying massive odds to knockout Sergio Pettis at UFC 185. He is just 1-2 since, losses to prospects Ben Nguyen and Brandon Moreno sandwiching a decision over Fredy Serrano.
    Seven of his professional wins have come by knockout, four in the first round.
    Fighting mostly in Australia with one trip to China, Ashkan Mokhtarian (13-2) racked up a dozen finishes, split evenly between knockouts and submissions, before joining UFC earlier this year. The experience wasn’t enough to prepare him for John Moraga, who overpowered him over the course of 15 one-sided minutes.
    He stands one inch taller than Benoit, but will give up an inch of reach.
    Benoit’s striking is too raw and his wrestling too underdeveloped to be a real threat in the division, but his raw power is absolutely legit. Mokhtarian doesn’t even have that saving grace — dude’s just not that good. He’s not a capable enough wrestler to consistently put Benoit on his back and he’s not a sufficiently skilled striking technician to take advantage of Benoit’s lapses on the feet.
    Even if Mokhtarian does put him on his back, Benoit has the scrambling to get back to the feet and force more heavy exchanges. Benoit takes his head off sometime in the first round.
    Prediction: Benoit via first-round technical knockout
    *As an aside, I’ve already broken down the next two bouts in the past, so I’m just gonna copy/paste what I did last time.
    155 lbs.: Will Brooks vs. Nik Lentz
    Once the undisputed king of Bellator’s Lightweight division thanks to two wins over Michael Chandler, Will Brooks (18-3) edged Ross Pearson in his UFC debut before things went off the rails. An injured rib cost him dearly against an overweight Alex Oliveira in Oct. 2016 and Charles Oliveira’s grappling proved more than he could handle six months later.
    He will have two inches of height and four inches of reach on Nik Lentz (27-8-2).
    Lentz ended his 4-2 run as a Featherweight after a submission loss to Charles Oliveira, a move that paid quick dividends in the form of wins over Danny Castillo and Michael McBride. Islam Makhachev proved a tougher out, utilizing quality top control to defeat Lentz by decision.
    He has gone 11-5-1, 1 NC overall during his eight years in the organization.
    It’s hard not to feel that there’s been something missing from Lentz in his recent fights. That frantic, murderous pace just isn’t there anymore and, while his durability remains intact, he’s slower and easier to hit than ever. Worse, he struggled with Lightweight wrestlers even at his best — Mark Bocek and Evan Dunham completely shut down his takedown offense and Makhachev threw him around like a ragdoll.
    In short, he’s pretty much fodder for Brooks. “Ill Will” is bigger, younger, stronger and more technically adept in both the striking and the wrestling. He dominates on his way to a trio of 30-27s.
    Prediction: Brooks via unanimous decision
    265 lbs.: Anthony Hamilton vs. Adam Wieczorek
    Anthony Hamilton (15-8) — a.k.a. “The Freight Train” — is having some issues leaving the station. Hamilton, who joined UFC with MFC’s Heavyweight title and a knockout win over Smealinho Rama, has gone just 3-6 in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion and enters the cage having lost three straight by first-round stoppage.
    He steps in for the injured Dmitrii Smoliakov on less than three weeks notice.
    Adam Wieczorek (8-1) has not tasted defeat since falling to Marcin Tybura six years ago in his second professional fight. He returned to the cage in 2014 and went on to stop his next seven opponents, five of them in the first round. Four of his five submission wins have come by armbar.
    I face a conundrum. Wieczorek is just not that good — he’s got porous takedown defense, he retreats in a straight line when pressured, and his offensive striking consists of a jab and a reasonably sharp right hand he doesn’t throw nearly enough. If Hamilton’s skillset, mediocre as it is, was attached to even a passable chin I’d pick him in a heartbeat.
    Alas, Hamilton’s durability is nonexistent and I can’t imagine a one-month turnaround will help that in any way. Hamilton muscles him around for a bit before getting lamped.
    Prediction: Wieczorek via first-round knockout
    155 lbs.: Damien Brown vs. Frank Camacho
    Damien Brown (17-10) rebounded from a rough debut against Alan Patrick to annihilate Cesar Arzamendia and out-duel Jon Tuck, beating the latter in his native Australia. “Beatdown” hopped over to New Zealand for his next appearance, which saw him walk headlong into a knockout blow from the returning Vinc Pichel.
    Though taller than Frank Camacho (20-5) by an inch, he will give up five inches of arm reach.
    Following an unsuccessful bid on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 16, Camacho returned to the Pacific scene and put together a solid 8-2 run, winning the PXC Lightweight title along the way. Less than one month after the eighth victory, he made his short-notice UFC debut and put on a “Fight of the Night” brawl with Li Jingliang.
    Fifteen of his 18 stoppage wins have come by form of knockout.
    Brown is tough, gritty and determined, but so is Camacho, and “The Crank” has superior power and a strong grappling game to back it up. It’s also worth noting that Camacho, though he has been stopped with strikes before, took everything a legitimately devastating puncher in Li could dish out without going down.
    It’s not a great sign for Brown, who’s going to struggle to out-scrap Camacho and appears outgunned in most areas of the game. We should get a few minutes of fun back-and-forth action before Camacho finds his chin and racks up (technical) knockout No. 16.
    Prediction: Camacho via first-round technical knockout

  28. #98
    Shagdogy
    Shagdogy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-16-10
    Posts: 3,564
    Betpoints: 5477

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Adam -3.5 at (-135) might be better. Just 11 cents worse then ITD line and covers the possibility of a wide decision win too.
    I played Weic when this fight was on the Till card. I do think Hamilton is total fade material. Still there's something that makes me a little nervous here. Weic can be pressured to the cage and kept there fairly easily. He doesn't have good leverage in the clinch and he grabs ovehooks, stands tall, and holds on without turning off the cage. Hamilton, who obv needs to protect his chin, could probably spend a lot of time here controlling Weic. That said, if Weic gets loose and lands even one punch it could be over. Hamilton could make it easy for him too with the way he insists on closing distance head first.

    The ground is also interesting. Weic is surprisingly nimble given his size and moves pretty well in the grappling, but I don't know if his style is sustainable. He has a number of armbar wins which isn't generally much of a HW submission. If Hamilton gets him on the mat he could possibly just grind on him. Weic -160 isn't too steep considering Hamilton's chin, but maybe o1.5 at plus money is worth a play as well? You have to imagine Hamilton's #1 priority will be to close distance and protect his chin.

  29. #99
    Shagdogy
    Shagdogy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-16-10
    Posts: 3,564
    Betpoints: 5477

    I'm considering a 5u play on Benoit. I haven't lost a 4 or 5u play yet this year and this one is looking like it meets the criteria. Basically, does Mokhtarian have any likely paths to victory? I know he has 6KO and 6sub wins but those have been against some truly awful competition. Benoit isn't a world beater but at least he's UFC caliber, particularly his power. Going to a decision with Moreno is much more impressive than anything that Mokhtarian has done.

    On the feet, I think Mokhtarian is stiff and lacks technique. Period. I don't think he presents any danger to Benoit here. On the ground, he is lazy in top position and not particularly powerful. His sub game is leg locks which, if your opponent is studied up at all, usually are a pretty terrible path to victory since you have to commit two hands and leave your face open to being smashed. I think Hugo was asking last card how many heel hook finishes we've ever seen in the UFC? I doubt we see Mokhtarian pull one off. So that leaves a decision win. Can he grind out a decision? What do you guys think? I don't recall Australian judges being robbery artists like Canada or Brazil. They handed their golden boy Matthews a decision loss to Holbrook that was pretty close.

    When I look at a fight and don't see the likelihood in any particular type of win for one fighter, then I start to get ready to pull the trigger on these big plays. I don't love the line but even where it sits I think there's plenty of value because I feel like Mokhtarian truly can't win this fight more than 2 out of 10 times and that's being generous. I think Benoit should be -400 or better.

    Anyone feel the need to talk me off of this, or just want to try to play devil's advocate?

  30. #100
    turbozed
    turbozed's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-15-08
    Posts: 2,435
    Betpoints: 1081

    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    I'm considering a 5u play on Benoit. I haven't lost a 4 or 5u play yet this year and this one is looking like it meets the criteria. Basically, does Mokhtarian have any likely paths to victory? I know he has 6KO and 6sub wins but those have been against some truly awful competition. Benoit isn't a world beater but at least he's UFC caliber, particularly his power. Going to a decision with Moreno is much more impressive than anything that Mokhtarian has done.

    On the feet, I think Mokhtarian is stiff and lacks technique. Period. I don't think he presents any danger to Benoit here. On the ground, he is lazy in top position and not particularly powerful. His sub game is leg locks which, if your opponent is studied up at all, usually are a pretty terrible path to victory since you have to commit two hands and leave your face open to being smashed. I think Hugo was asking last card how many heel hook finishes we've ever seen in the UFC? I doubt we see Mokhtarian pull one off. So that leaves a decision win. Can he grind out a decision? What do you guys think? I don't recall Australian judges being robbery artists like Canada or Brazil. They handed their golden boy Matthews a decision loss to Holbrook that was pretty close.

    When I look at a fight and don't see the likelihood in any particular type of win for one fighter, then I start to get ready to pull the trigger on these big plays. I don't love the line but even where it sits I think there's plenty of value because I feel like Mokhtarian truly can't win this fight more than 2 out of 10 times and that's being generous. I think Benoit should be -400 or better.

    Anyone feel the need to talk me off of this, or just want to try to play devil's advocate?
    Sure I'll play Devil's Advocate here.

    A 5 unit play at -270 is really a 13.5 unit play because that's how much you'd have to risk to win 5 units. That's a lot to risk. Even if it's hypothetically +EV and Benoit should be -400 here (I agree with you here), there are spots when you can get what should be heavy favorites at even or close to even money. Recent examples that apply I think are Randy Brown vs. Mickey Gall and Vicente Luque vs. Niko Price.

    Betting chalk seems to be disfavored strategy in the opinion of I'd say a majority of pro and sharp bettors. I don't know the exact explanation for this. If something is +EV, it should be played in theory. If someone should be -100 but is +200, then it's obviously +EV to play it. Likewise, if someone is -250 but should be -400, the odds also justify playing it. Obviously there's better profit in the first scenario but I don't think that explains it all. Part of it could be bankroll management. Losing 13.5 units is a big hit and may result in having to alter your unit size. There's also the psychological hit of losing big that may lead someone to chase.

    MMA is not quite as predictable as boxing. So lines don't ever reach above -1000 despite there being huge mismatches on nearly every card. There's much more variance than boxing because a flash KO right on the button can change things immediately. Even Benoit himself cashed as a 4-1 or 5-1 dog against Pettis with that big hook out of nowhere despite thoroughly losing every minute of that fight up until then. In this sense, I don't think it's in the same vein as betting the farm on Mayweather against McGregor, who looks like he should've been a -1000 favorite for more in hindsight. With boxing there's 10 counts, there's safe spots, etc.

    I think you're on the right track though by asking for different opinions. Most people suffer from confirmation bias and will only seek out information that confirms what they already believe. Go and watch the worst moments of Benoit's career and see if that dissuades you. That's what I did when I went balls deep on Brown/Gall. I asked for and got 10 people's opinion online, seriously considered them, and then decided it was unconvincing. I watched Brown's worst moments over again. In your case, watch Ben Nguyen utterly destroy Benoit a couple of times and then go on Youtube and search for people backing Moktharian (you won't find many, but Nick Kalikas thinks the fight will be closer than most).

    If you noticed my previous post on the fight, you'll probably get the sense that I agree with you on the matchup. The only negatives I can possibly find here are that the fight is home turf for Mokhtarian, that Benoit is an instinctive fighter and not really a process oriented one, and that he will be at a size disadvantage.

    Hope this helps.

  31. #101
    Shagdogy
    Shagdogy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-16-10
    Posts: 3,564
    Betpoints: 5477

    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    Sure I'll play Devil's Advocate here.

    A 5 unit play at -270 is really a 13.5 unit play because that's how much you'd have to risk to win 5 units. That's a lot to risk. Even if it's hypothetically +EV and Benoit should be -400 here (I agree with you here), there are spots when you can get what should be heavy favorites at even or close to even money. Recent examples that apply I think are Randy Brown vs. Mickey Gall and Vicente Luque vs. Niko Price.

    Betting chalk seems to be disfavored strategy in the opinion of I'd say a majority of pro and sharp bettors. I don't know the exact explanation for this. If something is +EV, it should be played in theory. If someone should be -100 but is +200, then it's obviously +EV to play it. Likewise, if someone is -250 but should be -400, the odds also justify playing it. Obviously there's better profit in the first scenario but I don't think that explains it all. Part of it could be bankroll management. Losing 13.5 units is a big hit and may result in having to alter your unit size. There's also the psychological hit of losing big that may lead someone to chase.

    MMA is not quite as predictable as boxing. So lines don't ever reach above -1000 despite there being huge mismatches on nearly every card. There's much more variance than boxing because a flash KO right on the button can change things immediately. Even Benoit himself cashed as a 4-1 or 5-1 dog against Pettis with that big hook out of nowhere despite thoroughly losing every minute of that fight up until then. In this sense, I don't think it's in the same vein as betting the farm on Mayweather against McGregor, who looks like he should've been a -1000 favorite for more in hindsight. With boxing there's 10 counts, there's safe spots, etc.

    I think you're on the right track though by asking for different opinions. Most people suffer from confirmation bias and will only seek out information that confirms what they already believe. Go and watch the worst moments of Benoit's career and see if that dissuades you. That's what I did when I went balls deep on Brown/Gall. I asked for and got 10 people's opinion online, seriously considered them, and then decided it was unconvincing. I watched Brown's worst moments over again. In your case, watch Ben Nguyen utterly destroy Benoit a couple of times and then go on Youtube and search for people backing Moktharian (you won't find many, but Nick Kalikas thinks the fight will be closer than most).

    If you noticed my previous post on the fight, you'll probably get the sense that I agree with you on the matchup. The only negatives I can possibly find here are that the fight is home turf for Mokhtarian, that Benoit is an instinctive fighter and not really a process oriented one, and that he will be at a size disadvantage.

    Hope this helps.
    Thanks for the feedback. I've actually been doing what you said this morning and watching the worst of Benoit and I have backed off my overzealous excitement a little bit. If there is ONE are where Mokhtarian can pretend to be UFC caliber I'd say it's in body lock clinch/td scenarios. And for all of his talent deficits he does have grit. None of this makes me think Benoit loses, but it makes me back if that it is the "perfect scenario" I look for in order to max bet. Benoit would need more air tight TDD for me to have that level of confidence and he simply doesn't.

    Btw, I wrote a post about bankroll management in the last thread, but I'm a very conservative gambler. When I say 5u I mean that would be my RISK. I play unit sizes of 1.5% of my bankroll and never risk more than 5 on any one fight. So in this case it would be 5u to win 1.85u at -270. I know that seems pretty tiny, but this is how I put myself on the slow and steady track and avoid those gigantic hits (haven't taken a big negative in a long time). My mindset is much better suited for slow and steady gain, even if it's not hitting the lotto.

    For this one I may feel better about risking a total of 3u on Benoit. Maybe 2 on him to win - enough to cover a 1u play on TKO at +230 and hope they both hit.

  32. #102
    turbozed
    turbozed's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-15-08
    Posts: 2,435
    Betpoints: 1081

    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    Thanks for the feedback. I've actually been doing what you said this morning and watching the worst of Benoit and I have backed off my overzealous excitement a little bit. If there is ONE are where Mokhtarian can pretend to be UFC caliber I'd say it's in body lock clinch/td scenarios. And for all of his talent deficits he does have grit. None of this makes me think Benoit loses, but it makes me back if that it is the "perfect scenario" I look for in order to max bet. Benoit would need more air tight TDD for me to have that level of confidence and he simply doesn't.

    Btw, I wrote a post about bankroll management in the last thread, but I'm a very conservative gambler. When I say 5u I mean that would be my RISK. I play unit sizes of 1.5% of my bankroll and never risk more than 5 on any one fight. So in this case it would be 5u to win 1.85u at -270. I know that seems pretty tiny, but this is how I put myself on the slow and steady track and avoid those gigantic hits (haven't taken a big negative in a long time). My mindset is much better suited for slow and steady gain, even if it's not hitting the lotto.

    For this one I may feel better about risking a total of 3u on Benoit. Maybe 2 on him to win - enough to cover a 1u play on TKO at +230 and hope they both hit.
    Alright since you're committed on Benoit, I can now mention that I'm already on Benoit ML and ITD too. Good luck to us both!

    Here's a recent interview with Benoit:



    Says this is the most he's prepared and focused on a fight since he's immersed himself in his camp.

  33. #103
    PaperTrail07
    MMA is the most pure sport
    PaperTrail07's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-08
    Posts: 20,423
    Betpoints: 585

    I was too until the book had the line up and down and re-opened at -300 smh
    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    Alright since you're committed on Benoit, I can now mention that I'm already on Benoit ML and ITD too. Good luck to us both!

    Here's a recent interview with Benoit:



    Says this is the most he's prepared and focused on a fight since he's immersed himself in his camp.

  34. #104
    PaperTrail07
    MMA is the most pure sport
    PaperTrail07's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-08
    Posts: 20,423
    Betpoints: 585

    WOW....Heritage will not allow parlays on UFC.....what a penetrating joke

  35. #105
    Shagdogy
    Shagdogy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-16-10
    Posts: 3,564
    Betpoints: 5477

    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    Alright since you're committed on Benoit, I can now mention that I'm already on Benoit ML and ITD too. Good luck to us both!

    Here's a recent interview with Benoit:



    Says this is the most he's prepared and focused on a fight since he's immersed himself in his camp.

    2u on Benoit ml and 1u on TKO.

First 123456 ... Last
Top