[CaptChaos145]

Gotta go with Olivera.. Pettis hasn't shown me much in recent fights to think he can beat Charles Olivera.. Pettis has lost his last 3 fights if I'm not mistaken now...

Yeah but it's all about the match ups. Pettis likes to stand obviously. He was however outclassed by arguably the best stand up fighter in the division. He was overwhelmed by RDA. And wrestle penetrated by Alvarez. Olivera possesses none of the skill sets of those 3 fighters. I don't think Charkes will be able to take Pettis down and he will be forced to stand and trade and that's where Pettis should shine. Also remember this is Pettis 1st fight at FW. Pettis should open at -200.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yeah but it's all about the match ups. Pettis likes to stand obviously. He was however outclassed by arguably the best stand up fighter in the division. He was overwhelmed by RDA. And wrestle penetrated by Alvarez. Olivera possesses none of the skill sets of those 3 fighters. I don't think Charkes will be able to take Pettis down and he will be forced to stand and trade and that's where Pettis should shine. Also remember this is Pettis 1st fight at FW. Pettis should open at -200.

Let's hope Pettis opens (-200). That'd be great!

[firekillex]

pettis should beat oliveria imo, but pettis is a big name so im assuming hell be a big favourite so the value will most likely be on oliveria.. pettis main problem at lightweight was that he was just simply getting out muscled and pushed around ( eddie, rda ) barbosa was simply just better then him in the standup .. i think pettis will have the stand up and strength advantage over oliveria so the fight will most likely be on the feet unless pettis wants to push him and grind him against the cage a bit or wrestle maybe he wants to change his game up at 45 and hes been wrestling a lot more lately in camp . in a 3 rounder i see pettis edging him out in a semi closely contested battle regardless of where it goes, oliveria isnt going to grind pettis and wrestle him basically his only weakness and he isnt outstriking pettis

[Hugo de Naranja]

pettis should beat oliveria imo, but pettis is a big name so im assuming hell be a big favourite so the value will most likely be on oliveria.. pettis main problem at lightweight was that he was just simply getting out muscled and pushed around ( eddie, rda ) barbosa was simply just better then him in the standup .. i think pettis will have the stand up and strength advantage over oliveria so the fight will most likely be on the feet unless pettis wants to push him and grind him against the cage a bit or wrestle maybe he wants to change his game up at 45 and hes been wrestling a lot more lately in camp . in a 3 rounder i see pettis edging him out in a semi closely contested battle regardless of where it goes, oliveria isnt going to grind pettis and wrestle him basically his only weakness and he isnt outstriking pettis

Some good points to consider from both you and Capt. I think there's a decent chance that current Pettis is nowhere near as good as the Pettis a few years ago. It's got to be confidence shattering to go from the P4P conversation to losing three straight fights. I also think there was a good chance Pettis was juicing during his championship run/reign. It's possible that he's shot in the same way that Johny Hendricks is shot. This is a fight where he "should" bounce back but there are enough question marks that there is probably value to be had by betting against him if he opens as a large favorite again.

[firekillex]

Some good points to consider from both you and Capt. I think there's a decent chance that current Pettis is nowhere near as good as the Pettis a few years ago. It's got to be confidence shattering to go from the P4P conversation to losing three straight fights. I also think there was a good chance Pettis was juicing during his championship run/reign. It's possible that he's shot in the same way that Johny Hendricks is shot. This is a fight where he "should" bounce back but there are enough question marks that there is probably value to be had by betting against him if he opens as a large favorite again.

Ya I understand where you're coming from, I just think the addition of Tyron Woodley to the camp and him winning the belt will light a fire under Pettis and this is really a do or die fight for the guy , he's still extremely talented you can see glimpses even during his losses, imo he was just to small for 155 and at the top level of competition every advantage matters ... Oliveria is a tricky guy to beat , kinda sucks because that Holloway fight could've really gauged where he's at but he got injured right away, we'll have to see where the lines at for his tbh, I think Pettis by decision may have value though I predict Pettis straight will be -200+ due to name value .. If oliveria is +220 or more I'd roll with him but we'll see, I still think Pettis gets it done 3 straight losses he's still somewhat young and has a great camp behind him this move down can be a career resurgence I really wanna see him vs Aldo

[firekillex]

Another dog that has a solid shot Imo is texeria if he gets +200 or more, I like rumble a lot but he struggles against grind it out wrestlers especially in 3 rounds if glover can survive and grind him 2 rounds he could steal a decision

[JIBBBY]

Another dog that has a solid shot Imo is texeria if he gets +200 or more, I like rumble a lot but he struggles against grind it out wrestlers especially in 3 rounds if glover can survive and grind him 2 rounds he could steal a decision

Yep I gave this fight some thought as well.. Rumble 1st round finish (KO) or Glover for the straight win is probably how I will play.. Maybe hedge them both to profit either way if the odds are good enough to do that...

[firekillex]

Yep I gave this fight some thought as well.. Rumble 1st round finish (KO) or Glover for the straight win is probably how I will play.. Maybe hedge them both to profit either way if the odds are good enough to do that...

ya thats probably how id play it as well, texeira is a beast and has some really good wrestling if he can get johnson down even a few times in this fight hell be successful . And its not like he has bad striking or anything if he grinds rumble to the cage a bit and takes some off his shots glover could easily stand and bang with him. But the first round he has to survive which will be the problem for any human being in the world that steps in with anthony johnson guys a legit savage. Texeiras at +190 already so if it goes up a bit more ill still probably take a stab with him i see this 60/40 rumble still a super close fight that could go either way

[Hugo de Naranja]

ya thats probably how id play it as well, texeira is a beast and has some really good wrestling if he can get johnson down even a few times in this fight hell be successful . And its not like he has bad striking or anything if he grinds rumble to the cage a bit and takes some off his shots glover could easily stand and bang with him. But the first round he has to survive which will be the problem for any human being in the world that steps in with anthony johnson guys a legit savage. Texeiras at +190 already so if it goes up a bit more ill still probably take a stab with him i see this 60/40 rumble still a super close fight that could go either way

I like the value on Tex and will bet him at (+200) or more. I also am looking for the Tex sub prop since Rumble has been submitted in most of his losses.

[firekillex]

I like the value on Tex and will bet him at (+200) or more. I also am looking for the Tex sub prop since Rumble has been submitted in most of his losses.

good idea, i bet the sub prop will be something juicy to as a small side prop bet. Once rumble gets grinded out and wrestled he tends to give up and just give submissions up more then actually being bad on the ground. He has some great wrestling the first round but im hoping glover can push him up against the fence make the fight kinda ugly for a round a half then start getting some takedowns and sub him out 3rd round maybe a choke after being in mount and rumble trying to roll over giving up his neck? Im wondering what the rumble ko/tko prop will be at

edit texeira sub +600
rumble tko/ko -140
+200 fight goes to decision hmm


also regarding the cerrone/story fight... if anybody likes rick story at + odds , the story by decision prop is at +250 if he wins i doubt he finishes cerrone he could definitely grind him 2 outta 3 rounds though

[Hugo de Naranja]

good idea, i bet the sub prop will be something juicy to as a small side prop bet. Once rumble gets grinded out and wrestled he tends to give up and just give submissions up more then actually being bad on the ground. He has some great wrestling the first round but im hoping glover can push him up against the fence make the fight kinda ugly for a round a half then start getting some takedowns and sub him out 3rd round maybe a choke after being in mount and rumble trying to roll over giving up his neck? Im wondering what the rumble ko/tko prop will be at

edit texeira sub +600
rumble tko/ko -140
+200 fight goes to decision hmm

I think Rumble KO/TKO will open around (+100) on 5Ds. Rumble's bad cardio and weak will sometimes lead him to look for a way out so I'll be watching closely when all the props drop. Fight goes to decision also worth considering since Glover is tough to finish and Johnson is capable of winning a 3 round decision.

[JIBBBY]

I think Rumble KO/TKO will open around (+100) on 5Ds. Rumble's bad cardio and weak will sometimes lead him to look for a way out so I'll be watching closely when all the props drop. Fight goes to decision also worth considering since Glover is tough to finish and Johnson is capable of winning a 3 round decision.

The under might be the best bet in this fight depending on the odds..

[firekillex]

The under might be the best bet in this fight depending on the odds..

Under 1.5 rounds -110 I think I'd like +200 decision over that tbh .. I don't think I'll play the total here was just giving you guys the odds to look at

[Hugo de Naranja]

Love Maia in 3 rounds - like Condit in 5. Maia is so damn good with taking people down and keeping them down he could cinch up 3 rounds and survive rounds 4 & 5. BUT I see Condit landing effective strikes late and finishing Maia. Play the draw prop. $10 will probably pay at least $1,500. Condit will be tentative to strike cause of the TD's. I can't wait for this fight. It should be spectacular.

5Ds just released a bunch of new props and all the draws are less than 100/1. Before last weekend the standard price was around 165/1.

[CaptChaos145]

5Ds just released a bunch of new props and all the draws are less than 100/1. Before last weekend the standard price was around 165/1.

Funny you mentioned this... I noticed that last night when I was looking to play a few draws. I think the Graves draw had a lot to do with that. Yeah they would get as high as 185/1.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Funny you mentioned this... I noticed that last night when I was looking to play a few draws. I think the Graves draw had a lot to do with that. Yeah they would get as high as 185/1.

It's possible that people bet them down but I think it was probably just 5Ds adjusting the lines because of the Graves draw.

[Rich Benjamins]

It's possible that people bet them down but I think it was probably just 5Ds adjusting the lines because of the Graves draw.

Yea, I think the old style MMA judging wouldn't have given Graves a 10/8 round in the 2nd. The judging now is more liberal in awarding 10/8 rounds to fighters, which will result in more draws.

[firekillex]

Yea, I think the old style MMA judging wouldn't have given Graves a 10/8 round in the 2nd. The judging now is more liberal in awarding 10/8 rounds to fighters, which will result in more draws.

Solid point , especially in 3 round fights where somebody wins 2 rounds and the other gets a 10-8 round it's not to common but I'd say it happens more then once outta 185 fights

[Hugo de Naranja]

Under 1.5 rounds -110 I think I'd like +200 decision over that tbh .. I don't think I'll play the total here was just giving you guys the odds to look at

Agreed. If I do play a total it will be fight goes to decision. I think Johnson Decision is not a bad bet at (+541). I also put a small stake on Tex Round 3 (+1500).

[Hugo de Naranja]

A few other bouts I'm really excited for on 202 are Magny vs. Larkin, Garbrandt vs. Mizugaki, and Cerrone vs. Story.

[firekillex]

A few other bouts I'm really excited for on 202 are Magny vs. Larkin, Garbrandt vs. Mizugaki, and Cerrone vs. Story.

Some crazy fights there wow....
my quick analysis on those

magny / Larkin this is a true pick me fight imo both very good strikers , Larkin has the power and explosiveness and some great kicks , where magny has the length and cardio .. I'd most likely take the dog in this fight if the values right


garbrandt / mizugaki you gotta go with no love Ko/tko prop all day long here maybe even round 1 prop ?

cerrone vs story I keep sleeping on cerrone at 70 i keep thinking he's gonna get outmuscled by these bigger guys honestly, and Rick story is literally the perfect guy to do that in a 3 round fight.. I'll want to watch Weigh ins before this fight but I'd lean story decision at some Juicy odds , either way I think this fight goes 3 he over prop could have value to...

[JIBBBY]

^^ Cowboy probably punishes Horror Story standing.. Weight and strength not a problem when standing...

Rick Story is a tough guy that likes to bang and he doesn't back down from any one.. This will not be a walk in the park fight for Cowboy I believe but he will pepper Story standing.... Cowboy by decision probably...

- Larkin probably by KO... Magny gets dropped if I had to guess. This is another fight that should stay standing.. Magny will have some reach and moments in this fight but Larkin will probably press the action and connect a big shot as some point.. My money will be on Larkin...

- No Love Kody by KO is the call Firekillex.. No other way to look at this fight.. Asian fade all the way. No Love drops the hammer in this one..

-

[Hugo de Naranja]

^^ Cowboy probably punishes Horror Story standing.. Weight and strength not a problem when standing...

Rick Story is a tough guy that likes to bang and he doesn't back down from any one.. This will not be a walk in the park fight for Cowboy I believe but he will pepper Story standing.... Cowboy by decision probably...

- Larkin probably by KO... Magny gets dropped if I had to guess. This is another fight that should stay standing.. Magny will have some reach and moments in this fight but Larkin will probably press the action and connect a big shot as some point.. My money will be on Larkin...

- No Love Kody by KO is the call Firekillex.. No other way to look at this fight.. Asian fade all the way. No Love drops the hammer in this one..

-

I think Cerrone by decision at (+2xx) is a great bet as well as fight goes the distance around (-150). I'd be shocked if Story finishes Cerrone but he could definitely win a decision. Cowboy has struggled with pressure fighters somewhat throughout his career.

I like Magny by decision and am hoping to get +odds on his ML. Should be a fun fight.

Cody should win this one handily but I think the main line will be unplayable so we'll probably have to look for props.

[ufcfan2016]

cody no love will ko him...if not at least a decision mizugaki is tough but he really has no way to win unless he fight so technical he outpoints cody

[Hugo de Naranja]

cody no love will ko him...if not at least a decision mizugaki is tough but he really has no way to win unless he fight so technical he outpoints cody

Thats what I'm thinking too. One bet to look out for would be Garbrandt -3.5. It would cash if he gets a KO/TKO/Submission or wins a wide decision.

[firekillex]

i see the magny/larkin fight going to decision as well imo theyre both evenly matched and legit top 10 talent
if i had to pick id lean magny but ill have to see where the odds are at for this one im thinking larkin may be the underdog since magny has somewhat of a name in the ufc but well see , if either are +130 or more il probably be with them regardless since this is such a close fight ... magny has never been tko or kod and hes fought harder hitters then larkin imo, larkin has big kicks but his hand power isnt in the top 3 elite of the division

[JIBBBY]

The cast and crew on the UFC tonight show (DC and Kenny) are sure writing off Eddie Alverez in his first title defense.. I can't argue that either if he faces Kabib... I would have to go with Kabib if they do match up as well...

Another future match up to think about.. Everyone I'm talking to is writing off Big Ben against Werdum.. I think Big Ben has a chance, he's showed he has the granite chin.. Werdum can and does get dropped.. He coming of a bad KO loss to Stipe as well..

UFC 203 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - Quicken Loans Arena - Cleveland, Ohio - PPV

Sat 9/10		1101 Ben Rothwell		+160	o2½ -110
11:30PM		1102 Fabricio Werdum		-185	u2½ -110

[Hugo de Naranja]

The cast and crew on the UFC tonight show (DC and Kenny) are sure writing off Eddie Alverez in his first title defense.. I can't argue that either if he faces Kabib... I would have to go with Kabib if they do match up as well...

Another future match up to think about.. Everyone I'm talking to is writing off Big Ben against Werdum.. I think Big Ben has a chance, he's showed he has the granite chin.. Werdum can and does get dropped.. He coming of a bad KO loss to Stipe as well..

UFC 203 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - Quicken Loans Arena - Cleveland, Ohio - PPV

Sat 9/10		1101 Ben Rothwell		+160	o2½ -110
11:30PM		1102 Fabricio Werdum		-185	u2½ -110

I like Rothwell Scorecards = NA (+110) and KO/TKO (+315), hedged with Werdum Decision (+183). Had small stakes on these early at better odds but I think they're still playable at these odds.

[CaptChaos145]

Larkin all day. He's the dark horse of the division. I wish he would push for bigger fights more. This one fell in his lap.

[firekillex]

Larkin all day. He's the dark horse of the division. I wish he would push for bigger fights more. This one fell in his lap.

Imo these guys are competiting for the dark horse title right here, magny has been much more successful lately especially with the higher end talent and Larkin has shown he can be boxed up, something magny does well and at range . Larkin is one of my favourite guys to watch but his UFC stint has been far from spectacular 4-5 in his 9 UFC fights and the guys he loses to are the pressure fighters something magny does well since his cardio is so stellar. This is a super close fight on paper but I think Larkin could be overvalued if Magny drops at + money ill be all over him

[CaptChaos145]

Imo these guys are competiting for the dark horse title right here, magny has been much more successful lately especially with the higher end talent and Larkin has shown he can be boxed up, something magny does well and at range . Larkin is one of my favourite guys to watch but his UFC stint has been far from spectacular 4-5 in his 9 UFC fights and the guys he loses to are the pressure fighters something magny does well since his cardio is so stellar. This is a super close fight on paper but I think Larkin could be overvalued if Magny drops at + money ill be all over him

Fire, Magny is not a dark horse. People know about him. It's important to keep in mind that Larkin lost most of those fights at MW. Does Magny beat Costa, Brunson, Carmont? Heck Carmont is a LHW now. Larkin was a small MW just like Lawler was a small MW in Strikeforce. Larkin is in his proper division now.

Larkin has the ability to take anyone out at WW. Watch that kid is going to move up fast now. I just wish he would push for bigger fights cause he has a very fan friendly style.

[firekillex]

Fire, Magny is not a dark horse. People know about him. It's important to keep in mind that Larkin lost most of those fights at MW. Does Magny beat Costa, Brunson, Carmont? Heck Carmont is a LHW now. Larkin was a small MW just like Lawler was a small MW in Strikeforce. Larkin is in his proper division now.

Larkin has the ability to take anyone out at WW. Watch that kid is going to move up fast now. I just wish he would push for bigger fights cause he has a very fan friendly style.

Most casuals dont know who Neil magny is from my experience , he's beat solid guys like kelvin gastelum, hector Lombard 2 guys that are similar to larkins body type , I like Larkin a lot but he gets hit a lot and magny isn't a power puncher but if he starts landing combos it won't be a good night for Larkin. Imo magny would beat Costa, Tavares, carmont.. Brunson he would have a big problem with not sure he'd pull that one out . Magny is a lanky guy but he's big for 170 at 6'3 , the best way I see Larkin winning is using his kicks and switching it up with some takedowns . Either way it's still a super close fight but I'd like magny at + odds , anything over -110 I wouldn't play him .

monsoon showed me a lot in the tumenov fight but I think people will be sleeping on magny because they still have that Maia domination stuck into their heads

[Rich Benjamins]

Most casuals dont know who Neil magny is from my experience , he's beat solid guys like kelvin gastelum, hector Lombard 2 guys that are similar to larkins body type , I like Larkin a lot but he gets hit a lot and magny isn't a power puncher but if he starts landing combos it won't be a good night for Larkin. Imo magny would beat Costa, Tavares, carmont.. Brunson he would have a big problem with not sure he'd pull that one out . Magny is a lanky guy but he's big for 170 at 6'3 , the best way I see Larkin winning is using his kicks and switching it up with some takedowns . Either way it's still a super close fight but I'd like magny at + odds , anything over -110 I wouldn't play him .

monsoon showed me a lot in the tumenov fight but I think people will be sleeping on magny because they still have that Maia domination stuck into their heads

I'd take Larkin. Larkin KOed Ponzinibbio. He's a smart fighter who understands the game. Magny almost got KOed by Hector Lombard, who then lost to old man Henderson.

[firekillex]

I'd take Larkin. Larkin KOed Ponzinibbio. He's a smart fighter who understands the game. Magny almost got KOed by Hector Lombard, who then lost to old man Henderson.

that is mma math at its very worst lol cmon benjamins youre better then this
almost getting kod by hector lombard is nothing bad at all he has some of the biggest power in the entire ufc , plus he won so....
the best win any of these guys has in the ufc is magnys win over kelvin gastelum who i think is top 5 at WW , larkins best win in the ufc would probably be over jorge masvidal in a split decision against a natural 55er

either way not saying magny will starch larkin at all its a very very close fight id lean magny 55/45 at max aka if hes + odds ill take him , but these guys are evenly matched regardless i see a super close fight that goes all 3 , the over could have value possibly here as well

[CaptChaos145]

Magny will not be able to pitter patter his way in like he has against most guys. Larkin will make him pay dearly. Magny was dropped by Gastelum. If/when Larkin connects Magny won't be able to deal with it very well. Magny also switches stances. I douby he will go to the southpaw stance against Larkin. Larkin will chew Magny up with the inside kick and body kick. Play the KO prop for Larkin.