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Not sure if I'm the only one who thinks Felice herrig looks like a transvetite psychotic personbtw both the girls aren't the greatest not really a huge edge in that fight regardless .... Basically all the good favourites have way to much juice I thought barboza would've been some better odds , if Valentina goes +300 or Melendez gets to +200 I'm going for some dog money ... If not gonna play some small parlays for fun until next weekend hope one hits
Gil Melendez Scorecards = No Action (+233) is a good bet. He's only been finished once in his career, a submission against Anthony Pettis and Barboza has been finished in 3 of his 4 career losses. I think Melendez is more likely to get a finish than Barboza which makes this a good value.
Holm is down to -225 pretty decent.. I think she wins an easy DEC. And yes jibby I see it goin 5 rounds.
thats insane. heritage had her -400 two and a half weeks agoOriginally Posted by Ty$
[QUOTE=firekillex;26023868]Not sure if I'm the only one who thinks Felice herrig looks like a transvetite psychotic person
That's right up my alley.
I think you just Mrs. Trumped me, I guess you didn't read what I had posted earlier. Please don't bet Curran, I don't want your stank all over it.
Part 2..MMA part 1...
145 lbs.: Darren Elkins (20-5) vs. Godofredo Castro (12-3)
Now training at Team Alpha Male, Elkins has won two straight since a 2014 decision loss to Hacran Dias. He managed to out-grit Robert Whiteford last October, then dominated top-tier prospect Chas Skelly in March. He stands three inches taller than "Pepey" at 5’10".
Castro struggled out of the gate in his UFC career, going 1-3 in his first four appearances with that one win a controversial decision. He’s since rattled off three consecutive first-round finishes, including a stunning flying knee knockout of Noad Lahat and a flying triangle submission of Andre Fili. This will be his first fight in sixteen months.
This fight will go in one of two ways: either Elkins will grind "Pepey" into a fine paste or he’ll get caught in a submission early. In light of Elkins’ great performance against Skelly and the fact that he hasn’t been submitted in nearly six years, I’m leaning towards the former.
The Brazilian will always be a hit-and-miss fighter, dangerous but inconsistent. Elkins might have to work his way out of some tough positions early on, but he’ll establish his wrestling dominance before long. He batters "Pepey" for an authoritative decision win.
Prediction: Elkins by unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Jim Alers (13-2) vs. Jason Knight (14-2)
"The Beast" opened his UFC career with an entertaining split decision over Alan Omer, but soon saw his nine-fight winning streak go up in smoke at the hands of Chas Skelly. He last fought in December, where he was in the midst of a competitive scrap with Cole Miller when he caught "Magrinho" with a finger in the eye. He’s submitted nine professional opponents.
Last September, Knight upset top prospect Musa Khamanaev to extend his winning streak to eight. Three months later, he stepped into the UFC cage on short notice, fighting valiantly in a losing effort against Japanese veteran Tatsuya Kawajiri. He stands two inches taller than Knight at 5’11".
This could turn out to be a terrific fight; both men are aggressive, capable ground artists with quite a few finishes to their credit. It’ll likely boil down to positioning, which favors Alers’ strength and wrestling skills.
"The Beast’s" porous striking defense will likely relegate him to the middle of the division for the foreseeable future, but Knight isn’t the sort of striker to punish that deficiency. Though Knight’s submission skills are top-notch and Alers can’t match Kawajiri’s legendary top pressure, the Englishman is strong enough on the feet and from top position to control the fight. Alers wins a fun three-round battle.
Prediction: Alers by unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Kamaru Usman (7-1) vs. Alexander Yakovlev (23-6-1)
Usman’s two victories on The Ultimate Fighter 21 convinced the Blackzilians top it him against the surging Hayder Hassan on the Finale. He rewarded their confidence with a second-round submission, then overwhelmed Leon Edwards in his next appearance. He’s stopped six professional opponents, five via TKO.
Russia’s Yakovlev entered the UFC on the heels of a win over Paul Daley, but opened his ZUFFA career with consecutive losses to Demian Maia and Nico Musoke. He righted the ship with a decision over Gray Maynard in his lightweight debut, then returned to welterweight to brutally knock out George Sullivan in January. He’ll have a one-inch height advantage on fight night.
Yakovlev was originally set to face Ryan LaFlare and he’s every bit as screwed here. Usman is a physical monster whose wrestling credentials far outstrip Yakovlev’s, a true blue-chip prospect with all the tools to be elite. He should also be the superior striker, meaning Yakovelv’s going to need to find that one-punch magic again if he wants a chance at victory.
Considering the Sullivan finish was Yakovlev’s first since 2011, I wouldn’t hold my breath.
The Russian is durable enough to avoid a ground-and-pound stoppage, but it’s unlikely he accomplishes much beyond surviviing. Usman by domination.
Prediction: Usman by unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Michel Prazeres (19-2) vs. J.C. Cottrell (17-3)
"Trator" fell short against Paulo Thiago in his UFC debut before establishing himself as a real threat with decisions over Jesse Ronson and Mairbek Taisumov. Since then, he’s dropped a decision to Kevin Lee and rebounded with a controversial decision over Valmir Lazaro last November. He will give up four inches of height to the 5’10" Cottrell.
Cottrell last fought on June 24th, extending his winning streak to six with a decision over Cody Walker. Heedless of the quick turnaround, he stepped up on short notice to replace Tony Martin against Prazeres. He’s submitted eleven of his seventeen opponents.
I’m honestly rather disappointed that Martin had to withdraw; two physical marvels with awful cardio could have made for a morbidly-entertaining showdown. As-is, we’ll likely get a standard Prazeres fight in which he looks like a bulldozer from Hell for two rounds before desperately trying to survive the third.
Cottrell showed some decent wrestling in the Walker fight, but Prazeres’ strength and wrestling are something you need more than a few good regional wins and one month’s preparation to deal with. Prazeres banks the early rounds for another decision victory.
Prediction: Prazeres by unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Hector Urbina (17-9-1) vs. George Sullivan (17-5)
Competing as a middleweight, Urbina reached the quarterfinals of The Ultimate Fighter 19 before losing a decision to Cathal Pendred. In the UFC itself, he’s submitted Edgar Garcia and lost a decision to Polish takedown machine Bartosz Fabinski. "El Toro" has knocked out nine foes and submitted another five.
Sullivan upset then-hyped Mike Rhodes in his 2014 UFC debut, then thrashed Igor Araujo for his fifth knockout in seven fights. He’s since gone 1-2, sandwiching a decision over Dom Waters between stoppage losses to Tim Means and Alexander Yakovlev. He’s knocked out eleven opponents overall.
Urbina has been knocked out five times as a professional and Sullivan has a long history of laying people out; unless the Yakovlev knockout has severely damaged Sullivan’s confidence, this looks like a fairly straightforward pick.
Sullivan can do quite a bit of damage on the mat as well and has the defensive wrestling to control position. Whether on the feet or from top position, he’s too much for Urbina. He rebounds from his first career knockout loss with a crushing early finish.
Prediction: Sullivan by first-round TKO
170 lbs.: Alex Oliveira (14-4-1) vs. James Moontasri (9-3)
Brazil’s "Cowboy" turned heads in his UFC debut by pushing top prospect Gilbert Burns to the edge before suffering a comeback submission in the third round. A three-fight winning streak followed, setting up a headlining bout with Donald Cerrone that saw him tap to a triangle choke midway through the third. Nine of his wins have come by knockout and another two by submission.
"Moonwalker" opened his UFC career 1-2, struggling with the cut to lightweight and suffering the first stoppage loss of his career to Kevin Lee last July. Moving up to welterweight, he utterly dominated Australia’s Anton Zafir to earn his first UFC knockout. Four of his seven stoppage wins have come by knockout.
Oliveira’s power and durability let him get away with a lot; dangerous as he is on the feet, he leaves quite a few openings that a technical powerhouse like Moontasri can have a field day with. "Moonwalker" has the better kicking game and ought to have the edge in speed as well.
It’ll be a great fight while it lasts, but Moontasri is the more diverse and dangerous striker. They trade heavy blows before Oliveira fades and Moontasri exploits his history of submission losses.
Prediction: Moontasri by second-round submission
265 lbs.: Luis Henrique (8-2) vs. Dmitry Smolyakov (8-0)
Brazil’s Henrique entered the UFC on a six-fight winning streak, moving up from 205 to heavyweight to take on hulking Frenchman Francis Ngannou. He managed to take the first round with solid grappling, but ultimately suffered a one-punch knockout midway through the second. He’s knocked out three opponents and submitted another two.
Russia’s Smolyakov, a Master of Sport in both freestyle and Greco-Roman wrestling, has dispatched all eight of his opponents in the first round. Four of those wins have come within the first minute, his last two wins lasting a combined forty-five seconds. He will give up an inch of height to "KLB."
Henrique’s fight with Ngannou did nothing to convince me that he should keep fighting at heavyweight. He weighed in nearly fifty pounds heavier than in his previous fight and it showed, as he ran out of steam after a decent first round. Smolyakov, meanwhile, is a true, thickly-built heavyweight with the wrestling background to shut down Henrique’s takedowns and the power to put him down for the third time in his career.
Smolyakov may be unproven past the first round, but Henrique’s quite unlikely to last that long. The Russian tears him apart with rapid punches early in the first.
Prediction: Smolyakov by first-round TKO
135 lbs.: Eddie Wineland (21-11-1) vs. Frankie Saenz (10-3)
Wineland’s range striking appeared to be paying dividends in his title fight with Renan Barao before he ate a massive spinning back kick early in the second round. He re-entered the win column with a knockout of Yves Jabouin, but enters Saturday’s bout on a two-fight losing streak. He has been out of the cage for 364 days, dating back to his decision loss to Bryan Caraway.
Saenz emerged as an unexpected bantamweight contender last year with one of the biggest numerical upsets in years, a decision over Brazilian finisher Iuri Alcantara in the latter’s native Brazil. He built on that momentum with a decision over Sirwan Kakai, then took Urijah Faber to a decision after surviving a vicious onslaught in the second round. The Faber loss snapped a seven-fight winning streak dating back to 2012.
Wineland appears to have lost something important when Barao booted him upside the head; he’s struggled mightily with his accuracy since then and, considering that he’s not a super high-volume striker, that’s crippling. Saenz may not be the most technical fighter, but he’s a capable wrestler, relentless and tough as nails.
The Wineland who starched Scott Jorgensen and bludgeoned Brad Pickett crushes Saenz. This one, who’s fighting for just the second time since May of 2014, isn’t as successful. Saenz grits his way to a competitive decision win.
Prediction: Saenz by unanimous decision
MMAMANIA - Current UFC "Prelims" Prediction Record 2016: 88-55-3
Last edited by JIBBBY; 07-21-16 at 12:40 AM.
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You wont get Valentina at 300 she's been dropping down for the last few weeks, she did however open around 300ish and most of her props are still up past it as well.Not sure if I'm the only one who thinks Felice herrig looks like a transvetite psychotic person
I'm surprised you guys are not all over Barboza. Gilbert is past his prime and Barboza is coming into his prime. Barboza does a very good job at circling out of danger and staying on his feet. Gilbert's last win was over Diego almost 3 years ago and that was a close fight. I don't think we will see a better -200 favorite in a while. Put the house on Barboza and call it a day!
Im not sure if youre following my thread. But most people who do, know that i have put 10 units on Barboza a week ago. Good to see you on him as well, you know what youre doing capt.
i see a few -200 favs that are better value in the next few weeks imo
barbosa has had a few good fights in a row but a lot of people are sleeping on Melendez here ...
barbosa has shown holes in his game even recently ( Ferguson , Johnson,cerrone ) Melendez is coming off a suspension and a really close loss, basically anytime he loses its a close affair and for -200+ I usually want an almost guarantee win 70%+ .... I give barbosa the edge with his speed and length but man Melendez is definitely a live dog , dudes super durable and Ina 3 round fight he could easily grind 2 out in ugly fashion the way that most people beat barbosa ... So be careful putting 10 units to win like 4 on a guy who's pretty inconsistent ... I'm still cheering for barbosa though dudes a beast and I want the drama factor to see if he'll be willing to fight his teammate Eddie Alvarez for the title if he wins? Or do they give the shot to Khabib or Ferguson
^^^I like Edson Barboza as well and probably by decision... GIlbert gets out pointed in this one.. Barboza stays on his horse and at distance..
Mexican Cowboy looked like a class C fighter against Donald Cowboy Cerrone, do we take Moonstari as the dog play in this one? Still trying to figure out how to play this one.. Thoughts anyone?
UFC on Fox 20 - Welterweight 3 rounds - United Center - Chicago, Illinois - UFC Fight Pass
Sat 7/23 1801 James Moontasri +185 o1½ -170 5:30PM 1802 Alex Oliveira -225 u1½ +150
PROPS -
James Moontasri vs Alex Oliveira - Welterweight 3 rounds - UFC on Fox 20
Sat 7/23 1803 Moontasri / Oliveira goes 3 rnd distance +135 5:30PM 1804 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -165 Sat 7/23 1805 Moontasri wins inside distance +326 5:30PM 1806 Not Moontasri inside distance -436 Sat 7/23 1807 Moontasri wins by 3 round decision +550 5:30PM 1808 Not Moontasri by 3 round decision -925 Sat 7/23 1809 Oliveira wins inside distance +140 5:30PM 1810 Not Oliveira inside distance -170 Sat 7/23 1811 Oliveira wins by 3 round decision +230 5:30PM 1812 Not Oliveira by 3 round decision -290 Sat 7/23 1813 Moontasri / Oliveira draw +20000 5:30PM 1814 Fight not a draw -60000 Sat 7/23 1815 Moontasri wins in round 1 +600 5:30PM 1816 Any other result -1200 Sat 7/23 1817 Moontasri wins in round 2 +825 5:30PM 1818 Any other result -1725 Sat 7/23 1819 Moontasri wins in round 3 +1450 5:30PM 1820 Any other result -4050 Sat 7/23 1821 Oliveira wins in round 1 +300 5:30PM 1822 Any other result -420 Sat 7/23 1823 Oliveira wins in round 2 +525 5:30PM 1824 Any other result -975 Sat 7/23 1825 Oliveira wins in round 3 +925 5:30PM 1826 Any other result -1875 Sat 7/23 1827 Moontasri wins by submission +800 5:30PM 1828 Any other result -1700 Sat 7/23 1829 Moontasri wins by TKO/KO +440 5:30PM 1830 Any other result -720 Sat 7/23 1831 Oliveira wins by submission +220 5:30PM 1832 Any other result -300 Sat 7/23 1833 Oliveira wins by TKO/KO +320 5:30PM 1834 Any other result -460 Sat 7/23 1835 Moontasri / Oliveira starts round 3 -112 5:30PM 1836 Fight won’t start round 3 -118 Sat 7/23 1837 Moontasri / Oliveira starts round 2 -245 5:30PM 1838 Fight won’t start round 2 +185 if fight goes to scorecards all wagers are no action Sat 7/23 1839 Moontasri (scorecards = no action) +158 5:30PM 1840 Oliveira (scorecards = no action) -190
Gun to my head I take barbosa 29-28 but it's closer then everybody's saying Imo, will be a good fight regardless
Gilbert is as tough as nails and he's always a tough out.. A gritty tough pressure fight is Gilbert but Barbosa I think is too athletic, has the speed and technical advantage standing, he also has the length as well.. That's alot for Gilbert to over come in this match up..
I think Gilbert is gonna have to catch and land something big on the chin and stop Barbosa because I don't think he can win rounds on points against Barbosa.... Barbosa 29-28 sounds good to me..
Maybe Barbosa by split if Gilbert is really pressing the action and a judge scores favorably for Octagon control....
I suggest don't place your bets yet these lines are changing hard I expect Herrig to be underdog. I expect Holm to hit -150. Well just don't bet on those two I believe Melendez will be dropping too so you might want to put money on him right now. So if you're betting on Barboza probably wait because you're probably get a better line closer to the fight. Barboza by decision Holm by decision Herrig by decision.
Last edited by Ty$; 07-21-16 at 12:26 PM.
Maybe Moontasri SNA (+158), ITD (+326), or KO/TKO (+440)
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http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/James-Moontasri-36889
My Asian fade system has me perplexed in this match up...
AO is coming off a bad loss to Cerrone so he should be in rebound mode and very determined to win.. After his first loss to Gilbert Burns and by sub he rebounded well and destroyed KJ Noons in the next fight....
Both of these guys have never been ko'd so I'm a bit worried to pull the trigger on any ITD prop as this fight could go the distance.. Both fighters have gone the distance a bunch of times as well..
This is the one fight I'm kinda stumped on with this card..
For value alone though I might just take a stab at this prop. Roll the dice. Odds are pretty fat and AO has shown he can be sub'd in fights.. Moontasri does have 3 subs out of his 9 wins on his record..
1827 Moontasri wins by submission +800
Last edited by JIBBBY; 07-21-16 at 01:26 PM.
I know it was 2 years ago, but I can't shake the image of Barboza getting dropped by a Cerrone jab then getting subbed... I'm thinking Barboza by decision and/or Melendez straight. Gilbert didn't look bad in his last fight against Eddie Alvarez, although that was a year+ ago, and more importantly: Eddie chewed up Gilbert's lead leg with leg kicks.... Idk, I might just sit this one out. As others have said, I don't see a whole lot of value in this fight card.
4 tko ... Prolly ITD best bethttp://www.sherdog.com/fighter/James-Moontasri-36889
My Asian fade system has me perplexed in this match up...
AO is coming off a bad loss to Cerrone so he should be in rebound mode and very determined to win.. After his first loss to Gilbert Burns and by sub he rebounded well and destroyed KJ Noons in the next fight....
Both of these guys have never been ko'd so I'm a bit worried to pull the trigger on any ITD prop as this fight could go the distance.. Both fighters have gone the distance a bunch of times as well..
This is the one fight I'm kinda stumped on with this card..
For value alone though I might just take a stab at this prop. Roll the dice. Odds are pretty fat and AO has shown he can be sub'd in fights.. Moontasri does have 3 subs out of his 9 wins on his record..
1827 Moontasri wins by submission +800
I read ya Ty...
Only problem is neither fighter has EVER been KO'd though.. Both have very solid chins in other words.. Look at their records.. Both have fought in the UFC for a while now and for neither to be KO'd yet is saying something in that many pro fights..
Not convinced either fighter gets knocked out cold in this fight..
I was looking at that one as well. Might change my mind after weigh-ins but for now I'm going to pass on this fight and wait for a better spot.http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/James-Moontasri-36889
My Asian fade system has me perplexed in this match up...
AO is coming off a bad loss to Cerrone so he should be in rebound mode and very determined to win.. After his first loss to Gilbert Burns and by sub he rebounded well and destroyed KJ Noons in the next fight....
Both of these guys have never been ko'd so I'm a bit worried to pull the trigger on any ITD prop as this fight could go the distance.. Both fighters have gone the distance a bunch of times as well..
This is the one fight I'm kinda stumped on with this card..
For value alone though I might just take a stab at this prop. Roll the dice. Odds are pretty fat and AO has shown he can be sub'd in fights.. Moontasri does have 3 subs out of his 9 wins on his record..
1827 Moontasri wins by submission +800
She looked like crap against PVZ. But I think Curran looked less like crap in her PVZ fight.
MMA math means..........
Yep ^^ Both those chick kinda suck from what I've seen.. Another tough fight to play.. Maybe go with the dog in that one..
Sullivan just withdrew
- Well-regarded Bantamweight Holly Holm fights lesser-known Valentina Shevchenko on UFC on Fox 20, but Holm may be too big of a favorite on the current market betting odds against the equally-talented Shevchenko. Professional MMA analyst Nick Kalikas from MMAOddsbreaker and SBR Videos host Peter Loshak analyze the fight from a betting and odds perspective. (Nick Kalikas explains odds movement Holm/Shevchenko!)
- Go one-on-one with Holly Holm and find out what makes the former champ a UFC warrior.
- 'FOX Sports Live' with Jay and Dan; What's it like for Holly Holm to be back in the octagon for the first time since her loss to Miesha Tate?
Last edited by Thrilla; 07-22-16 at 01:28 AM.
Goddamnit! Parlays halved again...fml...
I think the sport should be clean but it's almost frustrating enough to say let em' fight all juiced up...
- Go inside the lives and training camps of fighters as they ready for UFC Fight Night on FOX in UFC Road to the Octagon: Holm vs Shevchenko. The co-main features former Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez taking on versatile striker Edson Barboza.
- John Ramdeen and Robin Black preview Edson Barboza vs. Gilbert Melendez.
- Gilbert Melendez: Staying Out of Edson Barboza's Range is the Key to winning at UFC on FOX 20
- Edson Barboza: It's Time for My Title Shot
- Gilbert Melendez talks about the roots of his training camp, specifically his teammates Nate and Nick Diaz and what it's like to train with the two UFC veterans.
Last edited by Thrilla; 07-22-16 at 05:38 AM.
god dammit...
exactly anything goes insanity lol....hell hit some meth right before--GO GO GO
i just cant get past Barbosa suspect chin (which is costing me money). i know he has done a better job protecting it but the worry is always there. I do believe Melendez is now a shell of himself after getting caught juicing. HIs performance against Alvarez was pathetic. MOst say it was the high altitude, i believe it was getting off the juice. Lets not forget a few guys have gotten pinched in his camp.
Holm down to -200 reduced juice... Keep waiting guys ... 😎
I'm still finding Holm at -210 5Dimes & -220 Heritage. Do you see these lines coming down at all by fight time?
I would assume it keeps getting better for the Holly backers. Hopefully it hits -150 but anything under -200 I'm on
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