Originally posted on 07/21/2016:




170 lbs.: Hector Urbina (17-9-1) vs. George Sullivan (17-5)
Competing as a middleweight, Urbina reached the quarterfinals of The Ultimate Fighter 19 before losing a decision to Cathal Pendred. In the UFC itself, he’s submitted Edgar Garcia and lost a decision to Polish takedown machine Bartosz Fabinski. "El Toro" has knocked out nine foes and submitted another five.
Sullivan upset then-hyped Mike Rhodes in his 2014 UFC debut, then thrashed Igor Araujo for his fifth knockout in seven fights. He’s since gone 1-2, sandwiching a decision over Dom Waters between stoppage losses to Tim Means and Alexander Yakovlev. He’s knocked out eleven opponents overall.
Urbina has been knocked out five times as a professional and Sullivan has a long history of laying people out; unless the Yakovlev knockout has severely damaged Sullivan’s confidence, this looks like a fairly straightforward pick.


Sullivan can do quite a bit of damage on the mat as well and has the defensive wrestling to control position. Whether on the feet or from top position, he’s too much for Urbina. He rebounds from his first career knockout loss with a crushing early finish.
Prediction: Sullivan by first-round TKO


170 lbs.: Alex Oliveira (14-4-1) vs. James Moontasri (9-3)

Brazil’s "Cowboy" turned heads in his UFC debut by pushing top prospect Gilbert Burns to the edge before suffering a comeback submission in the third round. A three-fight winning streak followed, setting up a headlining bout with Donald Cerrone that saw him tap to a triangle choke midway through the third. Nine of his wins have come by knockout and another two by submission.
"Moonwalker" opened his UFC career 1-2, struggling with the cut to lightweight and suffering the first stoppage loss of his career to Kevin Lee last July. Moving up to welterweight, he utterly dominated Australia’s Anton Zafir to earn his first UFC knockout. Four of his seven stoppage wins have come by knockout.
Oliveira’s power and durability let him get away with a lot; dangerous as he is on the feet, he leaves quite a few openings that a technical powerhouse like Moontasri can have a field day with. "Moonwalker" has the better kicking game and ought to have the edge in speed as well.
It’ll be a great fight while it lasts, but Moontasri is the more diverse and dangerous striker. They trade heavy blows before Oliveira fades and Moontasri exploits his history of submission losses.
Prediction: Moontasri by second-round submission


265 lbs.: Luis Henrique (8-2) vs. Dmitry Smolyakov (8-0)

Brazil’s Henrique entered the UFC on a six-fight winning streak, moving up from 205 to heavyweight to take on hulking Frenchman Francis Ngannou. He managed to take the first round with solid grappling, but ultimately suffered a one-punch knockout midway through the second. He’s knocked out three opponents and submitted another two.
Russia’s Smolyakov, a Master of Sport in both freestyle and Greco-Roman wrestling, has dispatched all eight of his opponents in the first round. Four of those wins have come within the first minute, his last two wins lasting a combined forty-five seconds. He will give up an inch of height to "KLB."
Henrique’s fight with Ngannou did nothing to convince me that he should keep fighting at heavyweight. He weighed in nearly fifty pounds heavier than in his previous fight and it showed, as he ran out of steam after a decent first round. Smolyakov, meanwhile, is a true, thickly-built heavyweight with the wrestling background to shut down Henrique’s takedowns and the power to put him down for the third time in his career.
Smolyakov may be unproven past the first round, but Henrique’s quite unlikely to last that long. The Russian tears him apart with rapid punches early in the first.
Prediction: Smolyakov by first-round TKO


135 lbs.: Eddie Wineland (21-11-1) vs. Frankie Saenz (10-3)

Wineland’s range striking appeared to be paying dividends in his title fight with Renan Barao before he ate a massive spinning back kick early in the second round. He re-entered the win column with a knockout of Yves Jabouin, but enters Saturday’s bout on a two-fight losing streak. He has been out of the cage for 364 days, dating back to his decision loss to Bryan Caraway.
Saenz emerged as an unexpected bantamweight contender last year with one of the biggest numerical upsets in years, a decision over Brazilian finisher Iuri Alcantara in the latter’s native Brazil. He built on that momentum with a decision over Sirwan Kakai, then took Urijah Faber to a decision after surviving a vicious onslaught in the second round. The Faber loss snapped a seven-fight winning streak dating back to 2012.
Wineland appears to have lost something important when Barao booted him upside the head; he’s struggled mightily with his accuracy since then and, considering that he’s not a super high-volume striker, that’s crippling. Saenz may not be the most technical fighter, but he’s a capable wrestler, relentless and tough as nails.
The Wineland who starched Scott Jorgensen and bludgeoned Brad Pickett crushes Saenz. This one, who’s fighting for just the second time since May of 2014, isn’t as successful. Saenz grits his way to a competitive decision win.
Prediction: Saenz by unanimous decision



MMAMANIA - Current UFC "Prelims" Prediction Record 2016: 88-55-3