1. 01-15-13 01:49 AM #36
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grabaka View Post
    Asspergerrrs battleeeeeee!!!!
    hahaha
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  2. 01-15-13 03:05 AM #37
    Fragoel2
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grabaka View Post
    I use a spreadsheet in excel. Calculates profits, pending plays, overall net and all that shit. I wonder if it would be better to have a spreadsheet for each sport.
    I have one too but is shittier... can I ask you to share your own? :P
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  3. 01-15-13 07:53 AM #38
    Oblivian
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    I keep track on Sherdog, the only place with real cerebral discussion. After each event, I break open the penny bank and bag up the coins. I won $.16 on Strikeforce this weekend.
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  4. 01-15-13 10:03 AM #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boxscout View Post
    I think it's easier to tell in combat sports, since you usually expect things to unfold in a particular way. Compare that to like, basketball. Were your sides shot's just not falling? Was it the defense? Was it the coaching? The refs?

    Obviously there's luck and variance in the fights themselves as well as your guesswork on them, but it's generally easier to see when your right or wrong.
    I still find it hard. Take for example the Cung Le vs Rich Franklin fight. Was that a lucky punch? Or was that punch going to happen 9 times out of ten because of all the years Cung has timed that punch matching up with all the years Rich has had shitty defense and sloppy leg kicks?

    Hard to answer that.
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  5. 01-15-13 10:08 AM #40
    Grabaka
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    OFFICIAL GRABAKA 2013.zip
    My spreadsheet
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  6. 01-15-13 12:11 PM #41
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by sideloaded View Post
    I still find it hard. Take for example the Cung Le vs Rich Franklin fight. Was that a lucky punch? Or was that punch going to happen 9 times out of ten because of all the years Cung has timed that punch matching up with all the years Rich has had shitty defense and sloppy leg kicks?

    Hard to answer that.
    You're exactly right (man, that was hard to write).

    It's easy to look at a fight and say, well obviously Le was undervalued there. Or look at every time a -2000 boxer wins and think 'yep, price was justified'. The actual results cloud our thinking, and this becomes clear when you look at future lines and watch someone get overvalued because of a string of wins, and then suddenly they lose as a 3-1 favorite in a fight that maybe should've been 50/50 all along.
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  7. 01-15-13 12:39 PM #42
    JKD
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    Spreadsheet, you gosta have a spreadsheet.

    Quote Originally Posted by Oblivian View Post
    I keep track on Sherdog, the only place with real cerebral discussion. After each event, I break open the penny bank and bag up the coins. I won $.16 on Strikeforce this weekend.
    You're such a player O, much more humble on Sherdog. You never run your mouth about your big wins over there ;]
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  8. 01-15-13 12:43 PM #43
    Vaughany
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    just gotta pick winnerz boys...simples
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  9. 01-15-13 02:05 PM #44
    Fragoel2
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grabaka View Post
    OFFICIAL GRABAKA 2013.zip
    My spreadsheet

    Thanks a lot! Noticed that I had some things that your's is missing and vice-versa. So I'm trying to merge the two so we can have the Ultimate Spreadsheet of Doom!
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  10. 01-15-13 02:50 PM #45
    sideloaded
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    .ods ? u running ubuntu breh? Thought I was the only one
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  11. 01-15-13 02:53 PM #46
    NunyaBidness
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    Openoffice is available on all platforms.
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  12. 01-15-13 03:17 PM #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    You're exactly right (man, that was hard to write).

    It's easy to look at a fight and say, well obviously Le was undervalued there. Or look at every time a -2000 boxer wins and think 'yep, price was justified'. The actual results cloud our thinking, and this becomes clear when you look at future lines and watch someone get overvalued because of a string of wins, and then suddenly they lose as a 3-1 favorite in a fight that maybe should've been 50/50 all along.
    Thanks I've started a spread sheet for each fighter. Im going to go by divisions starting with the new 135 lbs womens division. I've scraped the historic odds for each fighter from bestfightodds. I just wish I had an api key to Pinny.
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  13. 01-15-13 03:24 PM #48
    Vaughany
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    should have a formula for Kelly in there as well boys and girls!
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  14. 01-15-13 03:34 PM #49
    Boxscout
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fragoel2 View Post
    Thanks a lot! Noticed that I had some things that your's is missing and vice-versa. So I'm trying to merge the two so we can have the Ultimate Spreadsheet of Doom!
    When you do, please post that as well. Thanks for the one you posted too Grabaka.

    Now to figure out what a spreadsheet is.
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  15. 01-15-13 03:35 PM #50
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    should have a formula for Kelly in there as well boys and girls!
    No doubt, it should automagically calculate your wager size by comparing the available line to your capped line.
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  16. 01-15-13 03:37 PM #51
    PunisherIND
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    Quote Originally Posted by sideloaded View Post
    Thanks I've started a spread sheet for each fighter. Im going to go by divisions starting with the new 135 lbs womens division. I've scraped the historic odds for each fighter from bestfightodds. I just wish I had an api key to Pinny.
    damn, you are ambitious. seems like this will take forever.
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  17. 01-15-13 03:39 PM #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by PunisherIND View Post
    damn, you are ambitious. seems like this will take forever.
    not really Im already done with the 10-15 or so 135 lb fighters. Once the first scrapper script is wrote. You just change the name. BFO is super easy to scrape.
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  18. 01-15-13 03:42 PM #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    No doubt, it should automagically calculate your wager size by comparing the available line to your capped line.
    someone posted this on 2p2. It has all the formulas there. Just needs a little tweaking for mma.

    http://www.sendspace.com/file/39zzh8 The other field i meant market field is the capped line field
    Last edited by sideloaded; 01-15-13 at 03:58 PM.
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  19. 01-15-13 03:46 PM #54
    Vaughany
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    For example:

    Predicted win rate (55%) ......... 0.55 (in cell B5 for example) (decimal form)
    Actual odds (-110)............... 0.91 (in cell B6 for example) "
    Advantage calculated by predicted win rate (0.55) multiplied by actual odds (0.91) minus losing percentage (0.45)....
    so formula would be: =(B5*B6)-0.45 = 0.05
    Advantage (0.05) divided by actual odds (0.91) = 0.055 = the percentage of bankroll to wager under Kelly...
    So 0.055 = 5.5% (0.055 multiplied by 100) of bankroll
    Points Awarded:

    Dwil125 gave Vaughany 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  20. 01-15-13 03:50 PM #55
    PunisherIND
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    For example:

    Predicted win rate (55%) ......... 0.55 (in cell B5 for example) (decimal form)
    Actual odds (-110)............... 0.91 (in cell B6 for example) "
    Advantage calculated by predicted win rate (0.55) multiplied by actual odds (0.91) minus losing percentage (0.45)....
    so formula would be: =(B5*B6)-0.45 = 0.05
    Advantage (0.05) divided by actual odds (0.91) = 0.055 = the percentage of bankroll to wager under Kelly...
    So 0.055 = 5.5% (0.055 multiplied by 100) of bankroll
    you cant stop there bruv. tell us fools how to get half kelly and quarter kelly.

    we want to be spoonfed!!
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  21. 01-15-13 03:52 PM #56
    Vaughany
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    hahaha Do you all know how to divide fractions in to decimals?! Guess I should of explained tht first of all!
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  22. 01-15-13 03:59 PM #57
    JKD
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    After looking at spreadsheets at work all day, it's great to be at home relaxing where I can kick back and read a discussion about spreadsheets. Good stuff.
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  23. 01-15-13 04:01 PM #58
    sideloaded
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    Quote Originally Posted by JKD View Post
    After looking at spreadsheets at work all day, it's great to be at home relaxing where I can kick back and read a discussion about spreadsheets. Good stuff.
    spreadsheet discussion makes the girls wet
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  24. 01-15-13 04:09 PM #59
    Vaughany
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    hhaha

    culinary lessons and now spreadsheet lessons...even Wannabet is finding this too cerebral now
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  25. 01-15-13 04:17 PM #60
    JKD
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    haha, WB doesn't do spreadsheets he has minions for that shit!

    All fairness; I know he gets crazy amounts of stick on here, but I like that guy a lot, makes me laugh.
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  26. 01-15-13 04:17 PM #61
    PunisherIND
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    Quote Originally Posted by JKD View Post
    After looking at spreadsheets at work all day, it's great to be at home relaxing where I can kick back and read a discussion about spreadsheets. Good stuff.
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  27. 01-15-13 04:30 PM #62
    v1y
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    Account balance + amount withdrawn - initial deposit.
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  28. 01-15-13 05:10 PM #63
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by v1y View Post
    Account balance + amount withdrawn - initial deposit.
    Only useful if you're a one sport bettor. It's good to know if you're a donator at MLB.
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  29. 01-15-13 06:39 PM #64
    sideloaded
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    Only useful if you're a one sport bettor. It's good to know if you're a donator at MLB.
    do you mind if I ask you question about bit coins? Is it worth it to mine my own or buy from a broker?
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  30. 01-15-13 06:52 PM #65
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    From what I have read its not profitable to mine them anymore, the guys who are doing it are running super high performance rigs, can barely beat the cost of electricity it would take to run it.
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  31. 01-15-13 07:23 PM #66
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    damn I havent payed attention to mining for year or more. Shit got gamed real quick I guess.
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  32. 01-15-13 07:32 PM #67
    Grabaka
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fragoel2 View Post
    Thanks a lot! Noticed that I had some things that your's is missing and vice-versa. So I'm trying to merge the two so we can have the Ultimate Spreadsheet of Doom!
    Yeee send me a copy if you can mi amigo
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  33. 01-16-13 03:45 AM #68
    Fragoel2
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    I will post it here guys, but it might take a couple more days... Implementing the Kelly Calculator that everybody is so excited about

    In the meantime if you have some stats that you think should be on the spreadsheet, suggest them...

    EDIT: holy penetrating penetrates Sideloaded, that's a helluva spreadsheet... k, I'm going to take something from that too.
    Last edited by Fragoel2; 01-16-13 at 04:23 AM.
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  34. 01-16-13 12:14 PM #69
    Fragoel2
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    Well, in the end part of me decided that doing this was more important/fun than studying... so here it is:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ao-qXR4SYQV3dFJUZFZyR3JzS213ZmhLbzZ1aTF6UlE

    I moved the whole thing to google docs since:
    -It's easier to share
    -It's cross platform
    -You won't lose data if your hard drive dies

    Mostly, I merged the spredsheet posted by Sideloaded (since it was really well made) with the one of Grabaka (since I really liked the whole W, L, Pending system that it had).

    In the win/loss column you can insert:
    W = win
    L = loss
    PENDING = yeah, pending
    PUSH = push, very original I know
    C = Cash out
    D = deposit

    Anyway, there are some fictional bets so you can play with those and see it for yourself...

    I checked the various calculations but you should still be careful and double check it yourself... lemme be more clear:

    THE SPREADSHEET HAS UNDERGONE LIMITED TESTING, THERE MIGHT BE SOME ERROR IN THE CALCULATIONS, YOU SHOULD CHECK THE RESULTS IT PROVIDES BY YOURSELF! SHOULD YOU LOSE MONEY DUE TO SOME ERROR, SCREW YOU! YOU TAKE ALL RESPONSABILITY FOR USING THE SPREADSHEET!!!

    Hope you enjoy, if you have suggestions on how to improve it lemme know.
    Points Awarded:

    Vaughany gave Fragoel2 10 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: sideloaded
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  35. 01-16-13 12:34 PM #70
    Grabaka
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    WOW yours is amazing.
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