[sideloaded]

I'm probably a horrible gambler when it comes to pure win/loss in units. But I've withdrew 2.5 times more than I've deposited. So in the real world I'm up. Which should I really care about?

[MD]

You can't be down in units but up in $$$. Anyway, I dunno. I don't keep track of my win/loss any more. The only reason I even keep track of my profits is to adjust my bankroll for Kelly purposes.

[sideloaded]

You can't be down in units but up in $$$. Anyway, I dunno. I don't keep track of my win/loss any more. The only reason I even keep track of my profits is to adjust my bankroll for Kelly purposes.

I mean you know "playing with house money" then losing it all and so forth. Like depositing 200 bucks going up to 80 grand withdrawing a few k then losing the rest. I guess in pure units you're up but you did a lot losing to get there.

Basically should I be happy with the ROI or change something because of the lost potential.

[Sacrelicious]

My account balance.

[sideloaded]

My account balance.

do you keep track of your bonuses and rebates and all that?

[MD]

I mean you know "playing with house money" then losing it all and so forth. Like depositing 200 bucks going up to 80 grand withdrawing a few k then losing the rest. I guess in pure units you're up but you did a lot losing to get there.

Basically should I be happy with the ROI or change something because of the lost potential.

You should never be happy with preventable losses. If you rolled $200 into $80K, then blew $10K on a drunken stupor, the fact that you're up $69800 doesn't change the fact that you threw away $10K of your money.

[Sacrelicious]

do you keep track of your bonuses and rebates and all that?

I do, but when it comes to betting I have not had much luck with either. Bonuses in betting are just like rakeback in poker, they're returning money to you that you have already paid in juice.

When I play several hour of poker a day, this starts to become a real issue and a massive profit. That being said, I do not wager on anything but MMA, and do not do it with the frequency to make and bonus offers (which, for the most part, are not particularly good to begin with) even relevant.

[Sacrelicious]

You should never be happy with preventable losses. If you rolled $200 into $80K, then blew $10K on a drunken stupor, the fact that you're up $69800 doesn't change the fact that you threw away $10K of your money.

This.

[sideloaded]

You should never be happy with preventable losses. If you rolled $200 into $80K, then blew $10K on a drunken stupor, the fact that you're up $69800 doesn't change the fact that you threw away $10K of your money.

well yeah if you go into the casino and lose it all on black. But losing is apart of gambling. taking those +600 and +500 lines you're going to lose a lot.

[MD]

well yeah if you go into the casino and lose it all on black. But losing is apart of gambling. taking those +600 and +500 lines you're going to lose a lot.

I'm speaking in terms of preventable losses, implying losing plays. +600 plays that contain legitimate value aren't losing plays, although they are high variance. If you were to lose 10K due to variance, that is a part of gambling, and certainly an acceptable loss. If you have an edge in these plays, you'll win in the long term, anyway. It's different if your plays are square, or due to mistakes, however.

[NunyaBidness]

You should never be happy with preventable losses. If you rolled $200 into $80K, then blew $10K on a drunken stupor, the fact that you're up $69800 doesn't change the fact that you threw away $10K of your money.

Hey, remember that guy who said that he knew he was making -EV parlays in the other thread? He was funny.

[MD]

Hey, remember that guy who said that he knew he was making -EV parlays in the other thread? He was funny.

I've never posted a bet on the forum (outside of my €100 thread) on which I bet less than the sum of all of those parlays, even in my smallest plays (SREAM get the money); putting pizza money on parlays for action is fundamentally different to the subject matter of this thread, which is actual, quantifiable bankroll shrinkage.

[sideloaded]

Yes, hard to predict long term growth on those large moneylines. I will just accept the fact they had no value it seems.

[sideloaded]

mma is a bitch to bet. I cant find a solid way to figure out when I'm justrunning hot with dumb plays or legitimately leaking money or just hitting variance. Plus markets change yada yada. Gambling is hard.

[NunyaBidness]

I've never posted a bet on the forum (outside of my €100 thread) on which I bet less than the sum of all of those parlays, even in my smallest plays (SREAM get the money); putting pizza money on parlays for action is fundamentally different to the subject matter of this thread, which is actual, quantifiable bankroll shrinkage.

That's why I love when nosebleed stake players come to my games. They gamble it up because for some reason those losses don't count.

[NunyaBidness]

You can't be down in units but up in $$$.

Of course you can.

[NunyaBidness]

I'm probably a horrible gambler when it comes to pure win/loss in units. But I've withdrew 2.5 times more than I've deposited. So in the real world I'm up. Which should I really care about?

If you want a serious answer, I've built my spreadsheet to contain all my betting tools as well as containing my notes on individual fighters, so I can reference them when handicapping them next time. Taking copious notes on fights prevents me from having to rewatch them all every time.

I also include data on where I cap openers and closers, predicted line movements. Measure my wins by straight record, Dollars, and ROI.

[MD]

That's why I love when nosebleed stake players come to my games. They gamble it up because for some reason those losses don't count.

That's exactly it, though; they don't.

[MD]

Of course you can.

Under what definition of "unit"?

[NunyaBidness]

That's exactly it, though; they don't.

I gamble for a living. I get no rush or joy or sweat from betting. A $50 -EV bet is bad in the same way as a $5000 -EV bet is.

Profit = Edge x Volume.

Those little bets count.

[NunyaBidness]

Under what definition of "unit"?

The standard one.

Year one my bankroll is $10,000 and I bet $100 per unit. This year I lose 10 units, -$1,000.

The next year my mother dies and leaves me $40,000. My betsize is now $500 per unit. This year I win 5 units and am up $2,500.

Over those 2 years I have lost 5 units and am up $1,500.

[Crassus]

The standard one.

Year one my bankroll is $10,000 and I bet $100 per unit. This year I lose 10 units, -$1,000.

The next year my mother dies and leaves me $40,000. My betsize is now $500 per unit. This year I win 5 units and am up $2,500.

Over those 2 years I have lost 5 units and am up $1,500.

Wouldn't it be better to always use weighted-units and then convert back to original unit sizes for overall calculations?

[NunyaBidness]

Wouldn't it be better to always use ** and then convert back to original unit sizes for overall calculations?

Probably. "units" are pretty stupid all around. It's pretty meaningless, and I don't think they have a use outside of forum talk and (ugh) flatbettors.

[Grabaka]

I use a spreadsheet in excel. Calculates profits, pending plays, overall net and all that shit. I wonder if it would be better to have a spreadsheet for each sport.

[Sacrelicious]

I use a spreadsheet in excel. Calculates profits, pending plays, overall net and all that shit. I wonder if it would be better to have a spreadsheet for each sport.

Thats the most logical approach. I'm still rather new to this game, once I start betting larger sums of money I will likely do this approach.

As for other sports, I do not bet them. My brother works in the Dominican as a handicapper, once in a while he will send me a basketball play that I tail blindly, but aside from that I do not bet any other sport.

Would be curious to know the amount of variance you found in different sports.

[MD]

I gamble for a living. I get no rush or joy or sweat from betting. A $50 -EV bet is bad in the same way as a $5000 -EV bet is.

Profit = Edge x Volume.

Those little bets count.

They certainly do. I get enjoyment from having action on sporting events, however, and that enjoyment is worth the price of admission to me. "Making a living" is just the method through which we gain the means to obtain things that bring us happiness and security. I suppose it is unfortunate for me that having action makes me happy, as it's an expensive hobby, but other than that and some overly expensive steak a few times a week, I generally spend my money wisely, so I could do worse, I think.

The standard one.

Year one my bankroll is $10,000 and I bet $100 per unit. This year I lose 10 units, -$1,000.

The next year my mother dies and leaves me $40,000. My betsize is now $500 per unit. This year I win 5 units and am up $2,500.

Over those 2 years I have lost 5 units and am up $1,500.

This is what I assumed you'd say (not this specifically, but spontaneous bankroll growth), and I consider it a faulty premise. You cannot be down in units but up in money through spontaneous bankroll growth because your new "units" are of an unequal value. Let's assume that instead of using units, you use standardized sizes. Small, medium, large. Year one my bankroll is $10,000 and I bet $100 per small wager. This year I lose 10 small wagers, -$1,000. The next year my mother dies and leaves me $40,000. My betsize is now $500 per small wager. This year I win 5 small wagers and am up $2,500. I am up 1500. My "small" wagers are now fundamentally different, and incomparable, to my previous wagers. Do you believe that x is the same in every math equation?

The issue with your logic is that you're assuming the term "unit" to be absolute rather than relative, which it is not, in this context; just as the term "small" is relative and not absolute.

As an aside, Stanford Wong is one crafty motherf-cker.

[Grabaka]

Thats the most logical approach. I'm still rather new to this game, once I start betting larger sums of money I will likely do this approach.

As for other sports, I do not bet them. My brother works in the Dominican as a handicapper, once in a while he will send me a basketball play that I tail blindly, but aside from that I do not bet any other sport.

Would be curious to know the amount of variance you found in different sports.

Yes. I do need to do it. Because i step back and dont see this kind of stuff like which sport is least lucrative and so on.

[NunyaBidness]

This is what I assumed you'd say (not this specifically, but spontaneous bankroll growth), and I consider it a faulty premise. You cannot be down in units but up in money through spontaneous bankroll growth because your new "units" are of an unequal value. Let's assume that instead of using units, you use standardized sizes. Small, medium, large. Year one my bankroll is $10,000 and I bet $100 per small wager. This year I lose 10 small wagers, -$1,000. The next year my mother dies and leaves me $40,000. My betsize is now $500 per small wager. This year I win 5 small wagers and am up $2,500. I am up 1500. My "small" wagers are now fundamentally different, and incomparable, to my previous wagers. Do you believe that x is the same in every math equation?

The issue with your logic is that you're assuming the term "unit" to be absolute rather than relative, which it is not, in this context; just as the term "small" is relative and not absolute.

You're the one redefining the term unit now.

Sometimes I think you like to argue for the sake of arguing. I know, because we can smell ourselves.

[NunyaBidness]

They certainly do. I get enjoyment from having action on sporting events, however, and that enjoyment is worth the price of admission to me. "Making a living" is just the method through which we gain the means to obtain things that bring us happiness and security. I suppose it is unfortunate for me that having action makes me happy, as it's an expensive hobby, but other than that and some overly expensive steak a few times a week, I generally spend my money wisely, so I could do worse, I think.

You must be single. Making a living is the method through which we gain the means to obtain things that bring our wives happiness and security.

If it was just me, I would've retired 4 years ago.

[Grabaka]

Asspergerrrs battleeeeeee!!!!

[MD]

You're the one redefining the term unit now.

Sometimes I think you like to argue for the sake of arguing. I know, because we can smell ourselves.

Lies. Gabe was one of us, too, and if an Armenian such as himself ever smelled himself he would have had a seizure.

You must be single. Making a living is the method through which we gain the means to obtain things that bring our wives happiness and security.

If it was just me, I would've retired 4 years ago.

Girlfriend, don't live with her. Living the dream, until we inevitably move in together. You are me from the future.

[NunyaBidness]

Girlfriend, don't live with her. Living the dream, until we inevitably move in together. You are me from the future.

[Boxscout]

mma is a bitch to bet. I cant find a solid way to figure out when I'm justrunning hot with dumb plays or legitimately leaking money or just hitting variance. Plus markets change yada yada. Gambling is hard.

I think it's easier to tell in combat sports, since you usually expect things to unfold in a particular way. Compare that to like, basketball. Were your sides shot's just not falling? Was it the defense? Was it the coaching? The refs?

Obviously there's luck and variance in the fights themselves as well as your guesswork on them, but it's generally easier to see when your right or wrong.

[Vaughany]

I gamble for a living. I get no rush or joy or sweat from betting. A $50 -EV bet is bad in the same way as a $5000 -EV bet is.

Profit = Edge x Volume.

Those little bets count.

Indeed, as we say over here..."Count the pennies and the squidz will look after themselves!"

[Vaughany]

Lies. Gabe was one of us, too, and if an Armenian such as himself ever smelled himself he would have had a seizure.



Girlfriend, don't live with her. Living the dream, until we inevitably move in together. You are me from the future.

loool