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Originally Posted by gabe
Weigh ins are a very important factor for betting. Joe looked FAR worse on the scale than he ever did at 135 or even in his first fight at flyweight.Oh that Furry Lucy...
I was betting DJ either way, but the weigh ins made me like him even more.
Joe Rogan has a hard on demetrius? or is the guy really fast, way faster than benavidez. Delusion?. You need to have some respect for people like joe rogan. They make a living out of MMA, while you get your life sucked by it.Were you drinking an energy dring? It probably affected your brain. You should quit gambling, maybe become a couch.
Your list was not even factual. I think you meant Matt Hume, not Greg Jackson. The video was for entertainment purposes, which you clearly missed, either due to language barrier or IQ level. If you think I made a spur of the moment pick, then I just shake my head at you. I had been capping this fight for at least a month. Stop listening to Joe Rogan, he has a major hard on for Mighty Mouse. Listening to the biased way he called that fight was ridiculous. And Goldie, for all the time he has spent watching fights, knows close to nothing about MMA. Travis Lutter is the Michael Jordan of BJJ...anyone? Johnson is fast, yes...so you automatically do not bet against him? I have seen every WEC event. I Watched Johnson struggle against Page until he gassed, struggle against Uncle Creepy in the first fight. Johnson implemented a sound game plan and there is still an argument to be made that he lost the fight, even though Benavidez did not fight a good fight.
Johnson fought a perfect fight. Literally perfect and he was still nearly finished and won a close split decision. Benavidez became frustrated and started winging wild combos and he did not set up a solid TD attempt using his striking. I envisioned the fight going a lot like round 2 for the entire fight. Benavidez didn't throw kicks or clinch up, any of the things to do against a fast opponent in order to slow them down. What do I know though, I'm just a degenr that lost money on his first UFC card this year who can't profit. I guess those videos where I showed around $14K of profit must have been illusions. Or maybe I didn't drink an energy dring those days. I can't remember, my brain arteries hurt.
I thought Jackson had been giving some kind of help to demetrius, might be my bad there, any way, Uriah faber fighter has been losing too many fights lately. Including Uriah who cant beat a brazilian tied. Anyway you can use this mistake of mine to prove I'm an idiot and you will be right. My point is that we both are idiots, difference is I know that and you dont. In fact 90% of the bettors here know they are losers overall and they are very conservative. most people here that know about mma gambling will consider your bet as completely stupid, any way you look at it, it makes no sense, they had about the same record, only 2 loses, none of them was injured, benavidez was slightly stronger but it was compensated with the speed. Even if you go back in their history there was a time when benavidez was into alcohol and drugs for a while that probably diminish his current performance, they both had same background as wrestlers. I really cant see were was the difference to have him at -250. There were a lot of expert having demetrius as a winner and I'm talking about journalist who dont even care about the betting line. If you had Charles Oliveira at the under, a guy with 20 fight and only about one over one and a half round I would understand but there is no point in your bet. Worst part is you cant see the math, the logic, the stats, you are delusional, you are not even stupid, you are delusional. But dont worry, I'm not busting your balls any more. My idea is to help people and you are helpless. Any way you lost money only. As long as it is your money fukk it.
Last edited by probettor1; 09-23-12 at 08:48 PM.
I never said that Johnson wasn't fast. I simply implied that if all you're looking at is speed for your capping, you are not looking at every aspect. Speed and technique can compensate for power if used effectively. I stated that Johnson did that, he fought a perfect fight. My hat is off to him. As far as the Joe Rogan comment, I do respect his knowledge of grappling and his ability to break down positions. However, when you listen to him commentate for certain fighters, he is biased and that was the case in this fight. It gets annoying to listen to one side of a close fight, regardless if I'm betting on a fighter or not.
Obviously after seeing how the fight played out, this was closer to a coin flip fight, maybe Benavidez -150. Even if I would have won the bet, I would have stated that it was the wrong side and a bad bet. I was on Bendo for his last fight and it was definitely the wrong bet. I have no problem admitting when I am on the wrong side. Had Benavidez finished Johnson with the guillotine in the 4th round, people would be saying that Benavidez was the right call because although Johnson kept it close, he can't finish top contenders and Benavidez can finish fights. Hind sight is 20/20, pal.
I was having fun with you because you criticized a lot of what I capped and then you yourself stated things that are useless when capping a fight. Benavidez may have had a history of alcohol and drugs so that "probably diminished his current performance"??? Unless you had inside knowledge that Benavidez was out drinking and using drugs instead of training, that had no bearing on the matchup at all. That would be like saying, well Demetrious Johnson was born premature and grew up without a dad, so he probably was babied. Maybe he doesn't have the heart.
As far as Team Alpha Male goes, while their performance may be a reflection of the coaching you are incorrect in stating that they have been losing too many fights lately. Of the Team Alpha Male fighters that are currently fighting in the UFC:
TJ Dillashaw has won his last 2 fights
Danny Castillo has won his last 3 fights
Chad Mendes won his last fight and has won 3 of his 4 UFC fights (only loss being against Jose Aldo)
Joseph Benavidez is now 3-1 in the UFC after last night's loss.
I agree about Urijah and have never thought of him as having championship caliber stuff in the UFC. He was looked after in the WEC and made the poster boy. I took Mike Brown in the first match and the rematch.
Benavidez trained with Robert Drysdale and others in Las Vegas along with Team Alpha Male. He trained with the late Shawn Tompkins in the past. The bottom line is he trains with skilled submission guys and elite wrestlers. I had Benavidez having the wrestling and submission advantage, but he did not display it during the fight. I think Benavidez could have used an intelligent game plan guy like a Greg Jackson or Matt Hume. His corner didn't do him any favors.
Obviously I won't be taking huge shots like this on a big favorite again. Lesson learned...but I already learned it immediately after the fight. I really didn't need someone to tell me I was an idiot or delusion, etc. Best of luck on your future wagers, pal!
Good hit Luca! Will be interesting to see what they do next. I would assume Benavidez needs at least two wins before a rematch. Not sure if they will throw Uncle Creepy right in considering they have fought twice already.
Benavidez came closest to finishing the fight...
Where ya from, nino?
Yeah, when I went back and watched it, looked like he had it in and Mighty Mouse was getting ready to tap right after he went all flutter kick and couldn't shake Benavidez.
I'm near Phoenix, what about you Gabe?
L.A.
Respek
Nino do you really think that a few years of alcohol and drug with no training wont affect you future performance. You level of intelligence amaze me. When you are competing in a high level, like the best two guys in the word every week, every month, every year count. This time he was getting high demetrius was busting his balls in a Gym. Of course it is not to be the main thing but when handicapping you need to have all the cards in your hand. Next time do a list of all the positive and negative of each fighter. You would have save 30k.
negative:
Slow compare to demetrius, demetrius is known as the fastest guy in the history of mma
history of drug addiction
Coach himself is a loser, many fighter in this camp losing
Has about the same losses as demetrius
Many experts MMA rooting for Demetrius
Fighting a guy who never has been finished
heavy underdog with -250
Fighting a guy who has finished as many fight as him self
Possive
Stronger fighter, but only slightly stronger
joe rogan has a hard on him
Follow my plays for the next couple months and maybe you'll be able to afford a move to Scottsdale.
you're kinda dumb lol
rogan clearly has a hard on for mighty mouse
and let me tell you something else 30k in a fortune. There is no need to get it all in one single event. If you tell me that you lose 30k chasing a guy like Jose aldo, I would understand that. Lets say you say i will chase/parlay jose aldo or jon jones to 7 fights whatever come first. It would make some sense. But in one single event a guy with 2 previous losses. No sense at all.
That is what i meant. When wrote him I was thinking on Demetrius. That was the explanation Nino gave me as a reason that people were saying he was the fastest.
maybe 30k is nothing to this dude.
if that's the case, f*ck him for not helping me out when i was in a jam. ahahaha
Gabe by looking at my analisys you can can say I'm dumb but you also can say that 90% of the bettor here are way dumber. I bet that nino has learned a bunch of shiit with my critics that he never thought about. This are people that bet by heart without looking any stats of data available. They dont even read the experts prediction online.
are you kidding, he was working saturday night, this kid sweat every cent he bet.
You realize that Demetrious Johnson started his MMA career 5 years ago and the drug and alcohol problems that Benavidez went through were 8 years ago, when he was in college and before he began training MMA, right? So once again, you are misguided my articulate friend. With such a comprehensive list, you must have cleaned up on betting Demetrious Johnson. Congrats!
I will have to remember to place "experts are rooting for" on my capping table. Definitely a key piece of information I missed. I have much to learn. Do you sell MMA capping tutorials? I have much to learn.
The fact that you are so passionate is something I admire, but passion with no brain equals defeat. Start thinking, learn stats, math, money management and learn to be humble. Listen to the experts.
nino, demetrius was a top wrestler in junior and high school, he has been training all his life
nino, I dont expect you to say, Ok I'm an idiot, my bad, the fact that you have been reading all the critics here is enough. I have been kicking you on the floor, I'm not happy about it. I'm sorry about that. I really admire your passion and I think that if you try to open your mind it will help you. have you ever read a book about money management? That is a good start.
Do you research at all or just make things up as you go? Demetrious finished 2nd and 3rd in Washington at the state level in high school, he never won a state title. He was a standout baseball player.
Joseph Benavidez won the New Mexico State Wrestling Title at 103lbs. his sophomore year. He won two State Championships playing football. I would argue that Benavidez's wrestling pedigree is better. Johnson implemented his better in the fight. They both began training serious MMA around the same time.
2 state level, that is top
I will tell you a simple money management that will keep you out of trouble and still might make you rich. Bet 10% of your salary and roll over is. It might look like nothing but if you have a winning streak, you could be betting thousands. If you lose, you will be fine. many people donate 10% to the church.
Example your 10% is 30 dollars a day after winning 30 games you would be betting 900 dollars per bet. This is a crazy example but so you can have an idea. You also can do the same starting by 7% and increse one % per month if you lose up to the 13% and go back to 7% if winning, this way if you win in the last month only you would be making more that what you lost. Once in 13 you go back to 7% even if you lose 6 month in a row. secret is never run out of money and always try to make your 10% higher working harder. Your main mistake here was money management, not poor handicapping, even though it was poor.
-250 means "like" you are twice and a half better. Not only better. You wont be able to give me one point to prove that benavides was twice better that demetrius, you are having issues to prove he as a little better.
You cannot string together a series of thoughts that make sense. Your core argument is that I should have bet Johnson because he is "the fastest fighter in MMA history" and MMA experts (who you fail to mention) were rooting for Johnson. I can't figure out if you're dumb or an absolute genius.
As far as critics go...it's pretty much been you and you've been a douche about it, but not even in a clever way. To answer your question, yes I have read game theory books and Sklansky's stuff. It was a large spot bet, I am aware it violated bankroll management. I took a shot and missed. Life will go on.
The only bet i liked in this card was oliveira under. I even posted before the fight and mentioned he was the king of the under and the best under in the game so far. That one was a 10 for me.
nino i'm not a genious, nor dumb. I dont think you are dumb either, you did a dumb move. But it doesnt make you a dumb. You look on gambling is distorted and sick. You need help.
I can see that you know a bunch of things about mma, but those thought are like bullets in your head with no direction.
Thanks. And I'd love to see Benavidez fight the loser of Dodson vs Da Silva. Either would be an awesome fight.
Rogan often times gets on my nerves, but he was just outright HORRIBLE last night. He was unbearable for basically every fight. He had tons of bad calls and blatant bias. Yes, DJ was winning the fight, and yes, he is very fast, but Rogan wouldn't STFU about how amazing DJ's speed was. I bet on DJ yet Rogan's bias towards him was still pissing me the hell off!
Fukkin right!
I have the impression that you work too hard and get too much shit in your brain, like caffeine, and shit to keep up with your life.
nino I wish you luck man, if you knew all i have told you, then I have spent 2 hours of my life for nothing, but i'll be happy if anything I've said is of any help to you in the future. Just remember 99.5% of bettors lose. What make you any better?
What pisses me off is that Goldberg doesn't really have enough intelligent stuff to say on his own, so when Joe goes all bananas on a fighter, Goldie turns into a kind of "yes" man and agrees with everything he says. Rounds 1-3 were all pretty close, by listening to Rogan you would have thought DJ was putting an absolute butt whoopin' on Benavidez.
I have never had coffee, I do not drink pop, I drink an occasional energy drink. I find it funny that you are making many assumptions about me and my life. Are you an online gypsy or soothsayer? Will December be a profitable month for MMA betting? How do you like Johny Hendricks against Martin Kampman? I feel like he has taken a lot of damage recently and I like Johny here.
There are some really good fights coming up. I'm pumped (barring injury).
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