[Luca Fury]

What's even worse about that performance, is the guy Erick is fighting isn't even a good fighter. He's a low-level Jungle Fight journeyman who is only a part time fighter.

[dww123]

Have you even watched tape on Silva??? Look at his last fight that went over 1 minute vs Gil de Freitas, 4 fights ago. He got taken down at will and gassed in less than a round vs a far inferior wrestler to Brenneman.

How can you just assume his takedown defense and cardio have improved since then, when he's only fought for a combined 2 minutes? I wouldn't touch Silva here, in fact, I picked and bet Brenneman. As long as he doesn't get caught early, he'll takedown down wear out Erik. And with how bad Silva gasses, there's actually a chance Charlie finishes him.

you say Silva gassed in less than a round against Gil de Freitas but won by guillotine in the 3rd? That submission is almost impossible to pull off when you're gassed isn't it? To me, Silva has shown 2 impressive KO's in the UFC and Brenneman seems to have no offense whatsoever. I think Silva is the obvious pick.

[Imsmarterthanu]

What's even worse about that performance, is the guy Erick is fighting isn't even a good fighter. He's a low-level Jungle Fight journeyman who is only a part time fighter.

You know who else was a part time fighter ?

Rocky Balboa

and look how far he got in the sport, the guy used to work at a meat factory during the day and then fight during the night, he ended up winning the heavyweight title in 86 against Drago.

Also don't forget Bert Rogers also a part time fighter, the rest of the time he changed tires at sears ended up knocking out Arolvsky for the strikeforce championships

[as99]

Brenneman - I'm going for this guy to win. Solid pick at +163. Line will get better tomorrow.

[Luca Fury]

you say Silva gassed in less than a round against Gil de Freitas but won by guillotine in the 3rd? That submission is almost impossible to pull off when you're gassed isn't it? To me, Silva has shown 2 impressive KO's in the UFC and Brenneman seems to have no offense whatsoever. I think Silva is the obvious pick.

You clearly didn't even watch the fight, did you?

[dww123]

You clearly didn't even watch the fight, did you?

LOL. No. I just did and i stand corrected. This card sucks for betting.

[gabe]

LOL. No. I just did and i stand corrected. This card sucks for betting.

I love this card for betting. I hope I don't regret these words...

[Luca Fury]

LOL. No. I just did and i stand corrected. This card sucks for betting.

Haha, I kind of figured. The fight kind of proves why making picks based off of glancing at records is bad. When I was looking at his record, I thought the same as you. I was thinking that fight was a GOOD sign, since he got a finish in the third round. But man, the fight tells a different tale.

I love this card for betting. I hope I don't regret these words...

Same here. It's a very tricky card, but I feel like I picked some good spots. Hoping I don't regret it.

[fosho14]

Are you going to be placing a wager on papazian Luca?

[gabe]

Haha, I kind of figured. The fight kind of proves why making picks based off of glancing at records is bad. When I was looking at his record, I thought the same as you. I was thinking that fight was a GOOD sign, since he got a finish in the third round. But man, the fight tells a different tale.



Same here. It's a very tricky card, but I feel like I picked some good spots. Hoping I don't regret it.

I listened to your podcast to boost my confidence in my plays even more so, but ended up being afraid... Thought you'd love Papazian and Martinez... Jorgensen too!!

[Luca Fury]

I listened to your podcast to boost my confidence in my plays even more so, but ended up being afraid... Thought you'd love Papazian and Martinez... Jorgensen too!!

Before study, I DID love Papazian and Martinez. But after seeing Jared's tendency to be inactive at times and a bit inconsistent, plus the reach disadvantage he'll have here, I only like him for a small play. If Jared would be more active and start faster I would like him more as he's the better striker and wrestler. But I can see him losing a round or maybe even two cus he just stands there and does nothing.

As for Martinez, every fight where a guy tried to take him down, they succeeded. Plus he has pretty bad cardio. Bernardo kind of sucks and has bad takedowns, so I do favor Matrinez, but can't touch him at -200.

As for Jorgenson, he's always been overrated while Wineland is underrated. They are about the same level of fighter, IMO. I think we see a very competitive decision either way, maybe even a split. I'll gladly take a chance on a +200 dog in that spot, who I favor slightly anyway.

Are you going to be placing a wager on papazian Luca?

Already did, but only small at -135. See above for the reasoning.

[Vaughany]

Before study, I DID love Papazian and Martinez. But after seeing Jared's tendency to be inactive at times and a bit inconsistent, plus the reach disadvantage he'll have here, I only like him for a small play. If Jared would be more active and start faster I would like him more as he's the better striker and wrestler. But I can see him losing a round or maybe even two cus he just stands there and does nothing.

As for Martinez, every fight where a guy tried to take him down, they succeeded. Plus he has pretty bad cardio. Bernardo kind of sucks and has bad takedowns, so I do favor Matrinez, but can't touch him at -200.

As for Jorgenson, he's always been overrated while Wineland is underrated. They are about the same level of fighter, IMO. I think we see a very competitive decision either way, maybe even a split. I'll gladly take a chance on a +200 dog in that spot, who I favor slightly anyway.



Already did, but only small at -135. See above for the reasoning.

I dont think the Riddle fight was really a fair representation of Martinez's cardio. Wasnt mentioned on the podcast that Martinez stepped in on a week's notice with a broken foot!

[Vitooch]

What's even worse about that performance, is the guy Erick is fighting isn't even a good fighter. He's a low-level Jungle Fight journeyman who is only a part time fighter.

I'm laughing at your breakdown of Magalhaes/Roberts, "they both just suck" ...You guys convinced me. Buddy Roberts it is.

[Luca Fury]

I dont think the Riddle fight was really a fair representation of Martinez's cardio. Wasnt mentioned on the podcast that Martinez stepped in on a week's notice with a broken foot!

That's not why his cardio sucked. Watch any of his other fights, he fades EVERY time. He's never shown cardio to go three rounds. He typically fades in the second round.

I'm laughing at your breakdown of Magalhaes/Roberts, "they both just suck" ...You guys convinced me. Buddy Roberts it is.

Haha, they really do. I can't believe either got a UFC contract. Watching tape for hours on them was positively brutal. I hated every second of it and it was hard to stay focused. They are both so, so bad, but Caio is the worse of the two. He doesn't even belong on MFC cards.

[fosho14]

These oddscasts are a great tool to add to the arsenal for capping fights. The analysis always seems very objective which I really appreciate.

[Luca Fury]

These oddscasts are a great tool to add to the arsenal for capping fights. The analysis always seems very objective which I really appreciate.

Thanks, glad that comes across to the listeners. I've been an MMA fan for so long that I've become extremely jaded. I'm not a fan of any fighters anymore, and haven't been for several years. It sucks in the sense that my enjoyment of the sport is greatly diminished, but it is an excellent trait for handicapping fights. Having no bias towards any fighter is very handy for objectively analyzing their skill set and match ups.

[Vaughany]

That's not why his cardio sucked. Watch any of his other fights, he fades EVERY time. He's never shown cardio to go three rounds. He typically fades in the second round.

No doubt he fades as the fight progresses, although I do believe that's partly because he is so aggressive and throws bombs right from the off. Im just hoping that a full camp in Albuquerque will be enough of an equaliser against Magalhaes who as u say may have better cardio.

[Vaughany]

Also, you say that if Larson can sub Pyle than Neer should be able to. Although I dont disagree that Neer could sub Pyle, I do think the Larson fight was a bit of a one-off for Pyle. As the Fowlkes article on mmafighting.com points out, Pyle took that fight on short notice after he'd just finished shooting a film (Universal Soldier Regeneration flop I guess?!) and hadn't trained in a while....

"He was 193 pounds when he took the fight, Pyle said, which meant he had about a week and a half to drop twenty-two pounds.

"My body wasn't ready for that. It wasn't even ready to be training. When your body is ready and you're sweating every day, your body is used to that fluctuation in your weight. But this was devastating. It was so hard."

Pyle made that cut his own way, rubbing the make-up remover Albolene on his body to help draw out moisture, then putting on a plastic sauna suit – the kind that's been banned in NCAA wrestling since 1997 – and covering up with a layer of sweats before going off to hit mitts or grapple.

The weight came off, or at least most of it did. But when Pyle walked in to weigh-ins that Friday afternoon in Las Vegas, he was still a couple pounds over and barely able to stand.

"I went down, passed out in the bathroom of the MGM Grand as I was walking in to try to get to the weigh-ins," he said. "I just couldn't make it. I was hurting. That was a nasty, ugly cut. It sucked, but it will never happen again."

[Luca Fury]

Also, you say that if Larson can sub Pyle than Neer should be able to. Although I dont disagree that Neer could sub Pyle, I do think the Larson fight was a bit of a one-off for Pyle. As the Fowlkes article on mmafighting.com points out, Pyle took that fight on short notice after he'd just finished shooting a film (Universal Soldier Regeneration flop I guess?!) and hadn't trained in a while....

"He was 193 pounds when he took the fight, Pyle said, which meant he had about a week and a half to drop twenty-two pounds.

"My body wasn't ready for that. It wasn't even ready to be training. When your body is ready and you're sweating every day, your body is used to that fluctuation in your weight. But this was devastating. It was so hard."

Pyle made that cut his own way, rubbing the make-up remover Albolene on his body to help draw out moisture, then putting on a plastic sauna suit – the kind that's been banned in NCAA wrestling since 1997 – and covering up with a layer of sweats before going off to hit mitts or grapple.

The weight came off, or at least most of it did. But when Pyle walked in to weigh-ins that Friday afternoon in Las Vegas, he was still a couple pounds over and barely able to stand.

"I went down, passed out in the bathroom of the MGM Grand as I was walking in to try to get to the weigh-ins," he said. "I just couldn't make it. I was hurting. That was a nasty, ugly cut. It sucked, but it will never happen again."

I didn't say Neer "should" be able to, I said it's NOT the likely outcome, but is possible.

I'm picking Pyle, but he's a total flake. He's better everywhere than Neer except for chin, heart and consistency. Sometimes he looks great, other times he looks awful. And even with the short notice, he still shouldn't have gotten subbed by Larsen. Brock just isn't a good fighter, and Pyle is WAY bette than him on the ground, but Mike flaked out again. Even without training for a while, you're ground skills don't just suddenly disappear.

That's not even the only time Pyle was subbed by a guy who shouldn't have subbed him. He's extremely inconsistent.

Neer is well rounded and has a tricky guard, so there's definitely a chance he gets the sub. But, like I said, it's not likely. I'm picking Pyle to win a decision, but no outcome here would surprise me.

[Oblivian]

It's sort of eery how much I agree with Luca on this card.

[Luca Fury]

It's sort of eery how much I agree with Luca on this card.

You must do a lot of tape study then

BTW, are you the sam Oblivian who posts on Sherdog?

[SmoovCruz]

hecht, grice, pierce, wineland, pyle, brenneman.....parlay take a stab at it fellas ive hit multiple 6-legs before and ive also lost a TON and i must say this one is crazy enough to hit favorites to dog ratio is on point

[Oblivian]

You must do a lot of tape study then

BTW, are you the sam Oblivian who posts on Sherdog?

Same guy.

Actually, I don't do much tape study at all as I'm just a recreational gambler betting nickels and dimes. I'm taking more of a leap of faith in Brenneman against Silva thinking that Silva may have a rough time with a gritty wrestler dragging him deep, but it seems you found confirmation that this is very likely. Also highly agree on Wineland vs. Jorgensen. I think I've been guilty of overestimating Jorgensen and underestimating Wineland. Wineland has impressed me more in his losses than Jorgensen has recently. I've been very underwhelmed with him. I think we agree on pretty much every other fight besides a couple minor disagreements. I like Mighty Mouse, but I'll likely hedge out as my only bet with him is a pending parlay with Charles Oliveira.

Edit: I wish I tailed you last week by the way. I got raped.

[Luca Fury]

Same guy.

Actually, I don't do much tape study at all as I'm just a recreational gambler betting nickels and dimes. I'm taking more of a leap of faith in Brenneman against Silva thinking that Silva may have a rough time with a gritty wrestler dragging him deep, but it seems you found confirmation that this is very likely. Also highly agree on Wineland vs. Jorgensen. I think I've been guilty of overestimating Jorgensen and underestimating Wineland. Wineland has impressed me more in his losses than Jorgensen has recently. I've been very underwhelmed with him. I think we agree on pretty much every other fight besides a couple minor disagreements. I like Mighty Mouse, but I'll likely hedge out as my only bet with him is a pending parlay with Charles Oliveira.

Edit: I wish I tailed you last week by the way. I got raped.

All good, no matter the price, anyone willing to put their money where their mouth is deserves respect.

And yeah, I really like Brenneman here as long as he doesn't get clipped early. As long as he avoids the initial blitz, he should be good.

I was big on Kampmann last week and feel this fight is similar to that, except I figured Kampmann could get hurt early and still survive. My reasoning was Ellenberger isn't that good at ground and pounding, and Kampmann is good as protecting himself on the ground. But here, if Brenneman get's hurt, he's most likely done. Charlie recovers well, but he kind of flops around when he gets hurt and Silva is an excellent finisher. So, I'm not as big on Brenneman as I was Kampmann.

[GunShard]

Luca Fury, you should make your own MMA play thread.

You look at video footage to predict a fight, similar to how I predicted Dos Santos to defeat Velasquez, I saw the striking advantage on Dos Santos in the video.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/boxing-mma...velasquez.html

[Luca Fury]

Luca Fury, you should make your own MMA play thread.

You look at video footage to predict a fight, similar to how I predicted Dos Santos to defeat Velasquez, I saw the striking advantage on Dos Santos in the video.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/boxing-mma...velasquez.html

Nah, I already have my own podcast with MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas. I say my plays on there and it saves me thE time of typing out all the pick/bet explanations.

[Vaughany]

Luca Fury, you should make your own MMA play thread.

You look at video footage to predict a fight, similar to how I predicted Dos Santos to defeat Velasquez, I saw the striking advantage on Dos Santos in the video.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/boxing-mma...velasquez.html

Watching fight footage is different to watching highlight footage. Im sure if Fury had just watched highlight footage of Erik Silva he wouldn't be saying he gasses out later in fights and doesnt have great take-down defence!

[Luca Fury]

Watching fight footage is different to watching highlight footage. Im sure if Fury had just watched highlight footage of Erik Silva he wouldn't be saying he gasses out later in fights and doesnt have great take-down defence!

Haha, that's true.

I remember when I was trying to find footage on Raul Amaya, all I could find at first was a highlight. It made him look like a KILLER. Then, when I saw the full fights, I released how much he sucks. There's a reason they're called "HIGHlights".

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Luca, you're from Minnesota, correct? Most Minnesotans that I know are wrestling homers..do you find that you favor wrestlers often?

[Vaughany]

Luca, you're from Minnesota, correct? Most Minnesotans that I know are wrestling homers..do you find that you favor wrestlers often?

Are u refering to BigDay!!

[Luca Fury]

Luca, you're from Minnesota, correct? Most Minnesotans that I know are wrestling homers..do you find that you favor wrestlers often?

In terms of what style I like to watch or what style I favor in terms of picks/bets?

As for what i like watching, like most, I find wrestlers to be less exciting than other styles. Although, I don't hate wrestlers.

In terms of favoring wrestlers, it all depends on the style matchup. I do find that wrestlers are usually the best guys to bet on, though. I've cashed on so many underdogs who were good wrestlers with the ability to grind out their opponents, going against a guy who is a dangerous striker or BJJ guy. However, I don't have a bias towards them or anything. I just find that the wrestling style matches up the best with other styles most of the time. A guy can be worse on the feet and in BJJ, yet still win. Plus, judges are biased towards wrestlers. If I think fight is a total coin flip and I really can't decide, I'll usually lean towards the wrestler slightly since they can dictate where the fight takes place.

That said, I've also bet against overvalued wrestlers many times. All depends on the style matchup. I still to this day cannot believe Jose Aldo was only -220 against Chad Mendes. That's a fight Aldo wins 99/100 times.

[Thor4140]

Some really good back and forth here.

[JerseyRobby]

I remember when Brown fought Aldo everybody was wondering if Aldo had TD defense and a gas tank. Not saying Silva is Aldo but this is a crossroads fight. If he puts on another flawless performance he will shoot up the rankings but if he is ground and pounded then the hype train will get derailed. It also reminds me of Machida vs. Soko because at the time both were thought to be huge contenders ready for a title shot and it was a pickem fight but very polarizing. Half said Soko would be too strong and powerful and others said Machida was too quick. The result of this fight will most likely be very definitive in one direction or the other despite the odds opening up fairly close.

The X-factor seems to be Brazilians not having a real amateur wrestling background. This can be misleading because every top American we know his credentials and we can kind of guestamate what type of takedowns and TDD he has by looking at his collegiate background. Brazilians on the other hand can have amazing TDD (Aldo) but there is no way for us to know that until he is put up against the Fabers, Browns and Mendes and stuffs them with ease.

[Luca Fury]

I remember when Brown fought Aldo everybody was wondering if Aldo had TD defense and a gas tank. Not saying Silva is Aldo but this is a crossroads fight. If he puts on another flawless performance he will shoot up the rankings but if he is ground and pounded then the hype train will get derailed. It also reminds me of Machida vs. Soko because at the time both were thought to be huge contenders ready for a title shot and it was a pickem fight but very polarizing. Half said Soko would be too strong and powerful and others said Machida was too quick. The result of this fight will most likely be very definitive in one direction or the other despite the odds opening up fairly close.

The X-factor seems to be Brazilians not having a real amateur wrestling background. This can be misleading because every top American we know his credentials and we can kind of guestamate what type of takedowns and TDD he has by looking at his collegiate background. Brazilians on the other hand can have amazing TDD (Aldo) but there is no way for us to know that until he is put up against the Fabers, Browns and Mendes and stuffs them with ease.

Good points, but to be fair, Brenneman is a much better wrestler than Brown, and when Aldo's takedown defense and cardio had been tested before that fight, they looked great. On the flip side, the last time Erik Silva's takedown defense and cardio was tested was just 4 fights ago and it looks awful.

With Aldo, people wondered if his takedown defense was as solid vs a good wrestler as it was against weaker wrestlers. But with Silva, people are wondering if his takedown defense and cardio have improved enough since looking awful vs a mediocre fighter and bad wrestler.

It's a similar, but still different, situation.

[NunyaBidness]

Watching fight footage is different to watching highlight footage. Im sure if Fury had just watched highlight footage of Erik Silva he wouldn't be saying he gasses out later in fights and doesnt have great take-down defence!

I think the best way to cap fights is to open the highlight videos of both guys at the same time and then make my decision. Sometimes, I overlap the windows to make it seem like they are fighting each other.