[The HOFF]

Date: Nov 19, 2011
Location: San Jose, California
Venue: HP Pavilion
Broadcast: Pay-per-view and Spike TV

MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view)

• Dan Henderson vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua
• Cung Le vs. Wanderlei Silva
• Brian Bowles vs. Urijah Faber
• Martin Kampmann vs. Rick Story
• Stephan Bonnar vs. Kyle Kingsbury

PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)

• Ryan Bader vs. Jason Brilz
• Tom Lawlor vs. Chris Weidman

PRELIMINARY CARD

• Nick Pace vs. Miguel Torres
• Rafael dos Anjos vs. Gleison Tibau
• Michael McDonald vs. Alex Soto*
• Seth Baczynski vs. Matt Brown
• Shamar Bailey vs. Danny Castillo

[The HOFF]

With Johnny Eduardo scratched due to a shoulder injury, undefeated promotional newcomer Alex Soto has taken his spot on next week's UFC 139 card.

He now meets fast-rising bantamweight Michael McDonald.

MMAjunkie.com today confirmed the switch with event sources, though UFC officials haven't formally announced it. McDonald first hinted at the change via Twitter.

[Vitooch]

I think Hendo/Rua fight ends in the first or second round...

Having a tough time breaking down some of these fights, lots of toss ups IMO

[The HOFF]

I've already made my max bet on Cung Le and am having trouble being disciplined and not adding more. Silva is 2-4 since returning to the UFC. His last KO victory was against glass jaw Jardine in 2008. Before that it was a soccer kick TKO in 2006. In his last 8 fights he has been KOd 4 times. Le is weakest on the ground, but there is no chance of Wanderlei trying to do that. Silva is a stand up fighter and will KO or be KOd. Le has power and I see him winning by first round KO.

[Vitooch]

I will prob tail that play but maybe for less units...when I first saw Belfort scratched and saw Silva as the replacement, I immediately thought Le had a very good chance of winning this fight.

Le hasn't really fought anyone of high caliber as Wanderlai, but if Leben can do it I certainly think Le can.

Here's hoping Silva doesn't take this fight to the ground. It is very unlikely but that is his best chance of winning.

But of course Silva always says he wants to put on a great show for the fans in his horrible broken English, so I will trust him to stand and bang with a better striker in Le

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

I've already made my max bet on Cung Le and am having trouble being disciplined and not adding more. Silva is 2-4 since returning to the UFC. His last KO victory was against glass jaw Jardine in 2008. Before that it was a soccer kick TKO in 2006. In his last 8 fights he has been KOd 4 times. Le is weakest on the ground, but there is no chance of Wanderlei trying to do that. Silva is a stand up fighter and will KO or be KOd. Le has power and I see him winning by first round KO.

I'm on the other side, yes Silva is 2-4 but he's been fighting top fighters. Cung Le is 39 and his biggest win is over who frank Shamrock or Scott Smith . At +120 i have to take Silva and hope he's got a better game plan than running into Le's punches

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[Kaladarus]

Silva's old school style completely counters Le here. However, Silva has a weak chin and can easily get hit closing the distance. He's been KO'd way too many times for my liking. If he is able to close the distance and strike he should take this fight, but I think more often than not Le will hit him with something decent early in the fight and this will make Silva fight differently. Le should then be able to setup his range and go to work. The line is close and it could go either way, but I like Le here for a small play.

[ShogunRua]

I will destroy Hendo. Put large bet on me.

[Vitooch]

I will destroy Hendo. Put large bet on me.

You're not actually Shogun Rua. You're just a loser with a rooster shaped bed resting on his rooster shaped pillow

[TheCalculator]

I will destroy Hendo. Put large bet on me.

Are you scared of the H-Bomb? lol

[Vitooch]

Thanks for changing the word I used to "rooster". I don't look like a complete fool now.

[ShogunRua]

Are you scared of the H-Bomb? lol

I'm actually looking forward to the H-Bomb. Perfect opportunity for counter punch.

[encore_]

I like Hendo / Shogun to go to decision actually.

[GunShard]

I didn't realize Cung Le is that old. But I am still placing a bet on him.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

I just see Cung Le as a guy who beat up on some c level fighters, Scott Smith, Sam Morgan, and Jason Von Flue. Even an old Wandy is a huge step up in competition. Silva knows he needs this win so he might even take Le down and work some BJJ.

[The HOFF]

I just see Cung Le as a guy who beat up on some c level fighters, Scott Smith, Sam Morgan, and Jason Von Flue. Even an old Wandy is a huge step up in competition. Silva knows he needs this win so he might even take Le down and work some BJJ.

The key is "old Wandy." He's at that point Liddell was at. Chuck could train and make new gameplans all he wanted. But touch him on the chin and lights out. I don't think Silva would ever try to turn a fight into a ground battle. He'll stand and bang no matter what.

[v1y]

I like Hendo / Shogun to go to decision actually.

at 5 rounds? no way.

[Nick The Greek]

I've already made my max bet on Cung Le and am having trouble being disciplined and not adding more. Silva is 2-4 since returning to the UFC. His last KO victory was against glass jaw Jardine in 2008. Before that it was a soccer kick TKO in 2006. In his last 8 fights he has been KOd 4 times. Le is weakest on the ground, but there is no chance of Wanderlei trying to do that. Silva is a stand up fighter and will KO or be KOd. Le has power and I see him winning by first round KO.

Couldn't agree more here. I believe Wand is going to let his emotions get the best of him in this fight knowing that if he loses Dana will retire him. He's going to come out looking for a home run shot to silence the doubters and this will only serve to leave him open to counter attacks from Cung. Should end in quick fashion.

And I don't know about everyone else, but I like Kyle Kingsbury pretty big on this card. I think he's superior to Stephan Bonnar in striking, wrestling, speed, power, and cardio. I'd give Bonnar the edge in jiu-jitsu, but that's it. And to my delight, the line on Kingsbury keeps on dropping. I gotta believe people are betting Bonnar purely based on name value. I'm crossing my fingers and hoping he gets bet down all the way into + territory.

[NunyaBidness]

Fade Cung Le against almost anyone in the UFC, but not Wand. Wandy shortens his reach with those hooks, Cung should be able to keep him at distance with his kicks. Wandy will make Cung look like Machida.

[Vaughany]

The key is "old Wandy." He's at that point Liddell was at. Chuck could train and make new gameplans all he wanted. But touch him on the chin and lights out. I don't think Silva would ever try to turn a fight into a ground battle. He'll stand and bang no matter what.

Its strange though because against Bisping he did mix it up - took Bisping down a couple of times and wasn't as wild as usual.

[Vaughany]

15 months since Cung Le last fought and he's faced average to mediocre competition (and lost in one of those fights)...wouldn't fill me with confidence if backing Cung as favourite even against Wanderlei

[Poppa Catfish]

15 months since Cung Le last fought and he's faced average to mediocre competition (and lost in one of those fights)...wouldn't fill me with confidence if backing Cung as favourite even against Wanderlei

not to mention he is ancient and has trouble with his knees, if I had to bet that fight I would just flip a coin.

[Vaughany]

yeah, might throw fight to not go distance in to a parlay

[Poppa Catfish]

Speaking of long layoffs, very much liking the odds I'm seeing out there for Kyle vs Bonnar.

[Vaughany]

Speaking of long layoffs, very much liking the odds I'm seeing out there for Kyle vs Bonnar.

yeah but Bonnar is so hard to finish, I guess with his takedowns Kingsbu could get the nod in a decision and he could hurt Bonnar with his knees in the clinch. But as Bonnar showed against KSos and Pokrajac, he has a solid clinch game and will be interesting to see who comes out on top in that as Kingsbu also likes to use the clinch to deliver knees (as he did against Romero and Maldonado). Since the Coleman loss I think Bonnar has started fighting smarter as well and looked for takedowns more. He took Pokrajac a few times and dominated him on the ground and also took KSoz down with trips from the clinch on a couple of occasions. I think it would be a good strategy to try this on Kingsbu and won't be surprised if he does it as I think Bonnar's biggest advantage would be when he has top control. And Bonnar did take out KSos - does Kingsbu offer a greater threat than Soszynski did? Pretty much irrelevant as it was on TUF and a long time ago but KSos walked through Kingsbu on the show. Kingsbury has clearly evolved since then though - is now a physical specimen and has greatly improved Muay Thai. But he has had match-ups against smaller 205ers - Razak (quite skinny), Romero (soft 205), Hamman (now at 185), even Maldonado could perhaps cut to 185. Bonnar on the other hand is a legit LHW (walks around at 230 to 235 lb range) so Kingsbu won't have the size advantage that he's enjoyed previously (even if he is still the better athlete). Kingsbury also didn't exactly breeze past his previous opponents (apart from Romero) - Al-Hassan was a split, the Hamann fight was very close, and some thought Maldonado deserved the win based on damage. Kingsbu being in his peak physical state could be the key though, with Bonnar being a battle hardened vet who could be at the tail-end of his career - as you say coming from a long-lay-off and he must have a lot of lingering injuries from his long career.
I am regretting not taking Bonnar when he was +161 underdog though - was great value in hindsight but I was too busy concentrating on UFC on FOX bets. It should go back up though to +135 or something though.
FOTN might also be a decent play to consider.

[Poppa Catfish]

Pretty much irrelevant indeed, in one of the top camps now. Actually committing himself to training instead of dicking around.

KSos fought like an idiot in that rematch, he was begging to get knocked out, but of course they are about the same level as the first fight showed. That doesn't exactly help us here as the TUF fight is irrelevant.

Pride was where they scored based on damage, so again don't know what to do with this comment. Seems pretty irrelevant as well.

I'll take an AKA fighter to win a hard fought decision in San Jose against a ring rusted salty veteran. It can be a split decision for all I care, I just want to cash the ticket.

[Vaughany]

I should say as well that losing to zombie Coleman at that stage of his career was embarrassing as well.

[Poppa Catfish]

I should say as well that losing to zombie Coleman at that stage of his career was embarrassing as well.

It was and he gassed pretty badly in the Jones fight as well (which was after a long layoff too), otherwise he would have been able to put away an incredibly faded Jones. The third round really isn't his friend. Would be nice to know what the undisclosed injury was that knocked him out of his scheduled bout in August. Kind of a quick turn around to then fight in November.

Unless it was a cut, which is something he is very susceptible to (since you well know being that he isn't black)

[rocky mattioli]

kingsbury/bonnar is a tough call...i can see why smart cappers are seeing it a little differently....

as was said,le/silva is an absolute crap shoot....matter of fact,i can`t remember a card with fewer clear favorites....torres/bader/weidman/mcdonald and to a lesser extent castillo.....and even those fights,for the most part,have elements of ???....

lots of competitive fights...but odds on most should be very reasonable..

[FlashinLeather]

kingsbury/bonnar is a tough call...i can see why smart cappers are seeing it a little differently....

as was said,le/silva is an absolute crap shoot....matter of fact,i can`t remember a card with fewer clear favorites....torres/bader/weidman/mcdonald and to a lesser extent castillo.....and even those fights,for the most part,have elements of ???....

lots of competitive fights...but odds on most should be very reasonable..

I think Le takes the fight and puts Silva into retirement, it's beginning to become a little overdue.

[rocky mattioli]

can`t argue with you....and theres a chance that silva thinks outside the box and actually grapples le(with his career probably on the line).....

really tough call

btw...don`t know how i came up with this font...must`ve accidentally hit something....lol

[Vaughany]

can`t argue with you....and theres a chance that silva thinks outside the box and actually grapples le(with his career probably on the line).....

really tough call

btw...don`t know how i came up with this font...must`ve accidentally hit something....lol

haha nice to mix it up now and agen

[TheCalculator]

I think Le takes the fight and puts Silva into retirement, it's beginning to become a little overdue.

YES -- A few other facts about Cung. He's been training AKA. San Jose's his home town. He's never taken heavy damage -- so his age is less of a factor (Age becomes a huge factor if you've taken major damage like Wandy). His wrestling is quite underrated so I doubt Wandy's going to be able to take him down.

[Vaughany]

Too many questions/variables in this Wand/Le fight for me. Are people exaggerating Wanderlei's decline? Is this another Schaub/Big Nog situation where everybody is jumping on the "Pride legend is shot" bandwagon? Yes his UFC record is poor, but he's faced high-level competition. Is getting KO'd by Leben an indication of a glass-chin? His other KO losses where Rampage and Henderson - hardly embarrassing. Wanderlei beat Bisping 18 months ago - how would CUng Le fair against anybody that Wanderlei has faced since he joined the UFC?